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Food systems evolution impacts disease emergence
1. Food systems: evolution, historical
and current impacts, disease
emergence - forward thinking
Food Security Forum 2014: Good food, good health: delivering the
benefits of food security in Australia and beyond University of
Sydney 17th March
Richard Kock Professor Wildlife Health & Emerging Diseases
Dept. Pathology & Pathobiology rkock@rvc.ac.uk
2. Summary of presentation
Agricultural development pathways & food systems
Agricultural impact on human, animal &
ecosystems health including disease emergence
risks.
Science & society’s shift from linear to systems
thinking - the One Health approach.
Need for improved metrics & shift in focus on
agricultural development
3.
4.
5.
6. Summary
• Historical background to animal domestication
• Intensification of agricultural systems and its
influence on pathogen & disease emergence
• Evolution of biosecurity concept in response to
economic impacts of disease in industrialised
livestock systems
• Conceptual model showing balance between
food security and ecosystem disservices
• Achieving a better balance
• Conclusions
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12. World Population 1750 to 1999
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1999
Asia Africa Europe Latin America and Caribbean Northern America Oceania
Source: United Nations cited on http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/
Medicines
Agriculture
Technology
Genes
13. + 1 BILLION EVERY
DECADE
Demographic
Transition~ 2050?
14. Biological success story over a mere
250 years or is it?
Most of the impact on environment
has occurred in the last 50 years as
human & domestic animal
population expanded exponentially..
Time to count the cost?
18. 75% ALL AGRICULTURAL
LAND IS FOR FEED CROP AND
LIVESTOCK Foley 2005
Food and environment
115% increase in production on agricultural land
with only 8% increase in land conversion
24% of vegetated land has undergone soil
degradation
70% “Blue water” consumed by agriculture -
used to be 90%
The Future of Food and Farming (2011) Final Project
Report. The Government Office for Science, London.
19. ‘Golden years’ of wild food
receding, although 1-2 billion still
depend on it
30. Global trends in Mortality 1990-2020
Category A communicable maternal, perinatal, and nutritional disorders
Category B non-communicable disease
Category C injury
Millionsofpeople
Murray and Lopez 1997
33. Principle macro-drivers of disease
emergence
Broad changes in ecology are now
associated with pathogen emergence
but little research has been completed
on the mechanisms. This is a vital area
for future research (Jones et al 2013).
The main drivers are anthropogenic:
development & landscape change,
globalisation, intensification &
Industrialisation of the food system
34. Urbanisation and Disease
More than 25% of U.S.
land development has
been in just the last 15
years
EIDs in urban settings:
leptospirosis, plague,
food born disease,
dengue fever, SARS,
zoonotic avian
influenzas,.. …
35. Development dramatically altering
the landscape
• Destruction
of habitats
for roads,
settlement,
farming &
industry
(Ewing et al
2010 Global
Footprint
Network)
• Yellow Fever
• Malaria
• Hendra
• Nipah
• Ebola
• HIV
• Leishmania
• Fasciola
36. • Loss of heterogeneity in the
landscape (new but fewer niches)
- biodiversity decline & change in
community composition (Roche &
Guegan 2011; Clay et al 2009; Randolph
&Dobson 2012).
• More intense interface –
opportunity for spread & co-
evolution of parasites with
humans, domestic animals & few
wildlife species (Despommier et al 2006;
Lloyd-Smith et al 2009).
• Ecological resilience theory –
tipping points & thresholds are
being reached e.g. climate system
(Revolution 2009)
Changing landscape - new niches,
drivers.
37. Farming systems: Numbers and
density
H5N1
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
DuckMeatProduction
(Tons)
China
Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao, Thailand and Vietnam
• In 2007, over 21 billion food animals
were produced for over 6 billion
people
• By 2020 the demand for animal
protein up by 50% mainly in
developing countries requiring over
30 billion animals
0
5
10
15
20
25
1900 1960 2000 2050
Human
(billion)
Cattle
Buffalo
Small
livestock
Pigs
Poultry
H7N9)
40. •Japanese Encephalitis virus persistence linked to amplification in pig units
(Erlanger et al., 2009),
•Nipah (Daszak et al., 2006) virus emergence linked to amplification in pig
industry in Malaysia (Graham et al., 2008, Barrette et al 2009) ,
•Last mammalian pandemic influenza virus HIN1 (Irvine & Brown 2009)
emergence from swine industry in Mexico, H5N1 H7N9 from intenstive poultry
systems in South East Asia
•Campylobacteriosis, brucellosis, tuberculosis associated with intensification of
livestock systems
•Hepatitis E linked to swine products (Garbuglia et al., 2013, Aggarwal & Naik,
2009 ).
•Human handling of pigs leads to increased Ecoli excretion (Callaway et al., 2006)
41. Pathogen factory.. Industrial poultry?
RISK
Newcastles
HPAI
Mareks
Salmonella
Campylobacter
New resistant &
virulent strains
(HPAI, Marek’s, ND
(Dugan et al 2008, Maclea et al 2007
Miller et al., 2010)
Amplification of pathogen
in aberrant host (HPAI)
Suarez 2000, Ito et al 2001, Souris et al 2010
Vaccines, antimicrobials,
pesticides
Biocontaminants – salmonella,
Campylobacter (Hermans et al 2011 ,
Altekreuse et al., 1997)
46. Global trends in Mortality 1990-2020
Category A communicable maternal, perinatal, and nutritional disorders
Category B non-communicable disease
Category C injury
Millionsofpeople
Murray and Lopez 1997
48. Structural crisis,
fundamental
unsustainability, &
imbalances in
current natural &
social global systems
producing conditions
for emergence of
diseases
Increasing pressures
within & between
human
environments,
natural ecosystems &
agricultures,
selecting for specific
diseases
Disease
spreading
among animals
and humans
Crisis
Response
Wallace et al in press 2014
49. Why Ecosystems Health?
Ecological processes are buffering against
disease
Ecosystem services
Clean air and water
Climate buffer
Natural waste processing (decomposers)
Pathogen dilution (community, biodiversity effects)
Pathogen buffering
Dietary diversity, nutrition
Immunocompetence
Genetic Health
50. Why be concerned about circuits of
capital and disease emergence
Production cycles:
• Degrade ecological resilience.
• Categorise humans & animals into markets & commodities.
• Globalise transport of goods people livestock & pathogens.
Epidemiological interventions:
• Denaturise, land grab, deforest, fence.
• Select for highly capitalised biosecure agriculture - industrial
intensified genetic monocultures that in themselves give rise to new
pathogens & their globalisation.
• Use of antimicrobials essential to intensive food systems, leading to
rapid, amplifying antimicrobial resistance developing & spreading.
51. AHI: animal health institute; UCS: union of concerned scientists
Rise in antimicrobial resistance
52. How will we measure sustainable
agriculture and progress in food safety &
security?
Currently:
• Poor metrics generally in MDG especially on poverty but
also on food insecurity – too much emphasis on calories &
subsidised grain industries – grain dumping.
• Improving metrics on nutrition – better to use stunting and
wasting rather than traditionally weight – better indicators of acute
and chronic under-nutrition.
• No real targets in agriculture – market led…e.g. no
agriculture food system MDGs met.
• Little attention to wild or natural food sources other than
governance & concerns over sustainability
• Little attention to emerging disease risks.
53.
54. Suggested changes to health/food
systems metrics
o Integrate food security & nutrition/health
issues.
o Go beyond metrics on food availability, access
& utilisation to include stability measures &
disease risk.
o Assess social consequences of agribusiness &
capitalised food systems (e.g. marginalisation
of small holders & rural in favour of urban
communities).
o Include poor nutrition & over-nutrition
measures.
55. Key Changes Needed in Health,
Agricultural and Food Systems Thinking
Better governance,
equity, sovereignty,
infrastructure,
finance, systems
change, new values,
ideas,
Education in general
& specifically to
improve health (self-
help), agriculture
practice & reduce
consumption & waste
Plan agriculture for a
reducing population
& absence of fossil
fuels
Climate Change
Water issues
Biodiversity
ecosystems
56. Thanks to:
Prof Robyn Alders FVM & the Food Forum & Political Ecology Grouping
at University of Sydney
Prof. Jonathan Rushton & Dr Barbara Haesler – LIDC/LCIRAH &
Sustainable Food Systems thematic research group RVC
Dr Jeff Waage – LIDC and Sustainable Development thematic research
group UCL
Prof Dirk Pfeiffer Ecosystems Health Research Group RVC
Dr Rob Wallace Institute of Global Studies University of Minnesota, &
Structural One Health Research Grouping
Acknowledgements
Lecture Dedicated to Prof Declan McKeever who passed away
February 2014 - former Head of the RVC Pathology Department