This document provides an overview of climate projection efforts in Nepal and outlines the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology's (DHM) strategy going forward. It discusses Nepal's previous climate projection reports and their weaknesses, such as using only one or two climate models and scenarios without bias correction or uncertainty analysis. It also notes a lack of explicit use of projections in adaptation planning. DHM has received some capacity building support over the years but lacks sustainability. Going forward, DHM aims to establish a national climate projection framework, build infrastructure and expertise, conduct uncertainty analysis following IPCC guidelines, and collaborate with sector experts to ensure projections inform adaptation planning. DHM's strategy includes developing Nepal as a regional leader in climate projections.

1. Overview of Climate Projection
in Nepal
Regional Workshop on Future Climate Projections
And Their Applications South Asia
29-31January 2019, Kathmandu Nepal
Archana Shrestha, Senior Meteorologist
Department of Hydrology and Meteorology

2. Topics
• Climate Projection in the National Context
• Capacity Development in Climate Projection:
DHM’s Perspective
• Issues and Need
• Way Forward

3. Initial Communication Report (2004)
– First climate Projection of Nepal
– Outputs of Two GCMs and One RCM
(HadRM2)
– 2XCO2 from Pre-industrial era 280ppv
Weaknesses
•IPCC AR3: 2001 (SRES: A1B, A1FI, A1T, A2,
B1 and B2) but used only one scenario,
•No bias correction
•No explicit use of projection in
adaptation
•No observed gridded data
Strengths
•Multimodel

4. Natioanal Adaptation Programme of Action (2010)
15 GCMs,
2 RCMs
(A2,A1B,
B2)
1970-
1999
2030s,
2060s,
2090s
● 3.0-6.3 °C, with a
multi-model mean
of 4.7 °C, by the
2090s.
● +43 to +80 %, with
a multi-model
mean of +8%, by
the 2090s.
(NCVST,
2009)
• NAPA mentioned the climate projection
information by NVSCT (2009)
• but did not used the projected data in
vulnerability analysis

5. NVSCT (2009)

6. Second National Communication 2014
– RCM: PRECIS (17 members)
– SRES A1B
Weaknesses
•IPCC AR3: 2001 (SRES: A1B, A1FI, A1T,
A2, B1 and B2) but used only one
scenario
•No uncertainty analysis
•Bias calculated but no bias correction
•No explicit use of projection in
Strengths
•One model but 17 Ensemble members

7. Climate Scenarios for NAP (2016-18)
• Climate Projection of Nepal for NAP
Process
• First statistical Downscaling method
used in Nepal
• Systematic methodology in model
selection
• Districtwise projection
• Uncertainty analysis
• Multi-model ensemble
• DHM-ICIMOD collaboration in report
preparation
• But
– Projection outputs were not used in
VA/adaptation plans by NAP thematic
group ye

8. Capacity Building at DHM-1 (2001-2007)
• Climate Change Scenarios for Nepal based on Regional
Climate Model RegCM3 (2007)-Supported by APN and ICTP
1. Training on RegCM3 in Pakistan (two weeks) and ICTP (60 day research
associateship),
• Hands on training from installation to bug fixing
2. First time RCM was run at DHM
• RegCM3 output for A2
• Mid-century period 2039-2069. Reference climate for 1961-1990.
• GCM data ECHAM5
• Bias was analyzed With CRU and station data but not corrected

9. • Strengthening Capacity for Managing Climate Change and the Climate Data
Digitization and Downscaling of Climate Change Projections in Nepal (2014)-
Supported by ADB, ADPC
Capacity Building at DHM-2 (2013-14)
1. Three Trainings for DHM Staff
• Training on station data quality control, interpolation in Nepal
• Training workshops series on PRECIS modeling, RegCm4, WRF.
2. Models were run and analysed at IITM, ADPC-Bangkok
3. Development of Climate change Portal for users
• But,
– Data portal is not working (no staff capacity to fix)
– Data was not used in National Policy/Plan explicitly
– Climate projection study did not continue (No sustainability Plan in the project and in DHM)

10. Capacity Building at DHM-3
• Involvement of DHM in Climate Projection of
Nepal for NAP Process (2017-2018)
• Report prepared in collaboration with ICIMOD
• First statistical Downscaling method used in
Nepal
• One week training of DHM Staff on methodology
• But
– DHM has not done projection data analyses
independently
– Once project is over, ICIMOD may not be interested in
supporting

11. Issues• GAP 1:
– No systematic/strategic framework for using climate projection in National
Documents (Model evaluation/selection, Uncertainty Analysis)
• Reason
– Lack of national vision in climate modeling development
– Lack of national capacity development in sustainable way (specifically at DHM)
• Potential Solutions
– Prepare strategic framework to follow IPCC Cycle
– Form Working Group in DHM incorporation of external experts
– Initiate Regional Panel/Forum for climate change (Like SASCOF)
• GAP 2
– No explicit use of projected data in vulnerability assessment and Adaptation Plans
• Reason
– Lack of Capacity among climate modelers and users to use climate model outputs in
various sectors
– Problem in communicating science
– Lack of capacity to integrate climate models outputs and people’s perception
• Potential Solutions
– climate modelers and sectoral experts work together to prepare products
– Train sectoral experts on climate tools

12. Way forward
DHM Believes That:
• Climate Models are constantly upgraded
– Therefore, methodology for model evaluation is necessary
• Climate projections depend upon emission/concentration/radiative
forcing scenarios, which are based on assumptions concerning, and
are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty.
– Therefore, Uncertainty has to be addressed and improve science
communication
• Climate Change Projection are done for Policymakers to prepare
adaptation plans
– Therefore, outputs must be useful for various thematic sectors:
agriculture, water resources etc.

13. DHM’s Strategy
1. National Framework for Climate Projection Modeling for Nepal
1. Develop Infrastructure for National Climate Projection data and Anaysis center
• Evaluation/preparation of baseline observed data
• Prepare Model Selection methodology (Review)
• Systematic foundation of Dynamical and Statistical downscaling
2. Uncertainty Analysis (Ensemble members, Analyses of climatic patterns)
3. Follow IPCC Cycle
2. Contribution to National /Local Adaptation Plans
1. Collaborate sectoral experts /institute to prepare products (pilot projects)
• Agriculture, Tourism, Disaster risk reduction, Urban Planning
3. Collaboration with Regional and international Institutes
1. Proposal: SASCOF like forum
2. Contribution to IPCC AR Cycle
Way forward

14. Thank You !