1st Presentation- Introduction of the project and its Overall Progress (2nd Seminar, "Seismic Risk assessment for Kathmandu Valley" was held on 11th April, 2017, at Hotel Yak and Yeti, Durbarmarg, Kathmandu), for dissemination of results of Seismic Risk Assessment of 'The Project for Assessment of Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment for the Kathmandu Valley (JICA)'.)

1. T H E P R O J E C T F O R A S S E S S M E N T O F
E A R T H Q U A K E D I S A S T E R R I S K F O R
T H E K A T H M A N D U V A L L E Y I N N E P A L
JICA ProjectTeam
2nd Seminar
-Seismic Risk Assessment
for Kathmandu Valley-
Ryoji Takahashi
11th April 2017
Introduction of the Project and
Overall Progress
2
Background and Outline of Project
Main Activities and Progress
Towards Effective Utilization of Project
Outcomes
Contents
3
Background
In 2002, JICA conducted “The Study on
Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Kathmandu
Valley of Nepal”. Now, social environment has
greatly changed since then.
Government of Nepal submitted a request to
government of Japan for updating seismic risk
assessment and, agreed to implement the
project in January, 2015.
On 25 April 2015, Gorkha EQ occurred at the
time just about to commence this project and
caused severe damage both in and out of KV.
However, there is still possibility of earthquakes
around KV in the future and need to prepare.
JICA project team and counterparts discussed the
new needs after the earthquake and started the
project from May 2015 with modification on the
project components agreed in June 2015.
Seismic Gap Kathmandu
Possibility of devastating earthquake
Damage of Gorkha Earthquake
First JCC meeting
4
Study Area Hazard and Risk Assessment :
Kathmandu Valley
Pilot Activities:
Three Pilot Municipalities:
Lalitpur Metropolitan City,
Bhaktapur Municipality,
Budhanilkantha Municipality
Hazard and Risk Assessment :
Kathmandu Valley
Pilot Activities:
Three Pilot Municipalities:
Lalitpur Metropolitan City,
Bhaktapur Municipality,
Budhanilkantha Municipality
Kathmandu Valley
Kathmandu
District
Lalitpur
District
Bhaktapur
District

2. 5
Study Area
The study area (KV) consists of 2 Metropolitan cities, 16 Municipalities and parts of 2 Rural
Municipalities.
Total wards: 232
BHAKTAPUR
Bhaktapur Municipality
Changunarayan
Madhyapur Thimi Municipality
Suryabinayak
KATHMANDU
Budhanilkantha
Chandragiri
Dakshinkali
Gokarneshwar
Kageshwori Manohara
Kathmandu Metropolitan
Kirtipur Municipality
Nagarjuna
Shankharapur
Tarkeshwar
Tokha
LALITPUR
Bagmati Rural Municipality
Godawari
Konjyosom Rural Municipality
Lalitpur Metropolitan
Mahalaxmi
6
Objectives and Outputs
Objectives: To assess seismic hazard and risk based on scenario earthquakes
with consideration of earthquake environment after the Gorkha Earthquake, and
to develop disaster risk reduction and management plan for concrete and effective
promotion of disaster risk reduction and management measures in the future.
Outputs:
Output 1: Seismic hazard assessment based on the latest knowledge and detail
ground model for Kathmandu Valley
Output 2: seismic risk assessment based on the results of seismic hazard assessment,
considering several earthquake occurrence scenes (date, time, etc.)
Output 3: Enhancement of knowledge for updating seismic risk assessment in
accordance with the social environment change in the future
Output 4: Formulation of build back better recovery and reconstruction plan and
disaster risk reduction and management plan making use of the seismic
hazard and risk assessment results for pilot municipalities
Understanding HazardUnderstanding Hazard
Understanding RiskUnderstanding Risk
Can be updated by Nepali SideCan be updated by Nepali Side
Plan and Implement to Reduce
Estimated Damages
Plan and Implement to Reduce
Estimated Damages
7
WG2: Risk
Assessment
WG3: Pilot ActivitiesWG1: Hazard Assessment
Main Activities
BBB Reconstruction Plan
for Pilot Municipalities
Disaster Risk Reduction
and Management Plan
Seismic Hazard
Assessment
Soil Investigation
Emergency
Response
Chronicle Survey
Standard Operation
Procedures
Building Damage and
Inventory Survey
Scenario Earthquake
Seismic Risk
Assessment
Evaluation of the
Results of 2002 Project
Construction of
Cut Model
Safe Kathmandu
Campaign
Original Components
Supplement components
8
Project Time Frame
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
13
14
16
16-1 Profile and damage survey
16-2 Vision on BBB plan
16-3 Policy on BBB plan
16-4 Action Plan on BBB plan
20
20-1 Determination of scenario earthquakes
20-2 Preliminary hazard analysis
20-3 Hazard analysis (intensity, landslide, etc.)
21
21-1 Building damage and building inventory
21-2 Development of building inventory GIS DB
21-3 Infrastructure and lifeline data
21-4 Population and social economic data
21-5 Investigation for risk assessment method
31
31-1 Earthquake occurrence occasion
31-2 Detail survey of typical buildings
31-3 Updating fragility curves of 2002
31-4 Damage assessment for buildings
31-5 Damage assessment for infrastructure
31-6 Human damage assessment
31-7 Economic damage assessment
32
32-1 Development of DRRMP
32-2 CB for local governmental officials
32-3 CB for community based DRR
33
Seismic risk assessment
Disaster risk reduction and management plan
Development of SOP
Construction of Model House
Urgent resilient and safe Kathmandu campaign
Recovery and reconstruction plan
Seismic hazard analysis
Data collection for seismic risk assessment
2nd Year
1st Year
Time Schedule
Activities
2015 2016 2017 2018
1st Phase 2nd Phase
Implementation Period: May 2015 – April 2018
Seismic Risk Assessment: Feb. 2017Seismic Risk Assessment: Feb. 2017
Seismic Hazard Assessment: June 2016Seismic Hazard Assessment: June 2016
DRRM Plan: Dec 2017DRRM Plan: Dec 2017
SOP: September 2017SOP: September 2017
CBDRRM: Dec 2017CBDRRM: Dec 2017
Reconstruction Plan: May 2016Reconstruction Plan: May 2016

3. 9
Main Activities and Progress
WG1: Seismic Hazard Assessment
WG2: Seismic Risk Assessment
WG3: Pilot Activities
Standard Operation Procedure (SOP)
Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan
Community-based Disaster Risk Reduction and
Management (CBDRRM) Activities
10
Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment
Current Progress:
• All activities completed in February 2017
WG1 and WG2 Activity
Explain in Agenda No. 6Explain in Agenda No. 6
11
Approach of Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment
Earthquake Source
Amplification
Attenuation
Total damage is mainly affected by intensity of ground motion,
vulnerability of structure and the number of vulnerable structure 12
Target Items for Seismic Risk Assessment
Building Road Bridge
Water & Sewage Power & Communication Human and Economic Loss

4. 13
Pilot Activities
• Formulation of BBB RR Plans for 3 Pilot
Municipalities completed in May 2016
• Formulation of DRRMP, SOP and
implementation of CBDRRM Activities are on
going
WG3 Activity
Formulation of Standard Operation Procedures (SOP)
(Dec 2016 - Sep 2017)
Research existent materials in Nepal and Japan
Nepal
Japan
National Disaster Response
Framework (MoHA)
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES (SOPs)
National Emergency Operation Center (NEOC)
Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA)
Yokosuka City Fuchu City
Formulation of Standard Operation Procedures (SOP)
(Dec 2016 - Sep 2017)
Development First Draft SOP based on existent materials
First draft SOP was developed based on existent materials.
[Table of Contents]
1. General Description of Manual
2. Mobilization of officials
3. Establishment of Emergency Response Head Quarter (ERHQ)
4. Disaster Response Activities against Earthquake
[Appendix]
FORMAT A: Check List
FORMAT B: Disaster Information Format
FORMAT C: List of Evacuee at Evacuation Shelter
FORMAT D: Personal Data of Officials
Contents of SOP will be discussed and modified on
workshops in 3 municipalities.
Formulation of Standard Operation Procedures (SOP)
(Dec 2016 - Sep 2017)
Work Plan
2017
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
SOP
Guideline
Workshop
/ Meeting
Meetings
* MoHA, DAO
and 3
Municipals
Last Workshop
* Invite MoHA,
DAO and 3
Municipalities
Workshops in Lalitpur, Bhaktapur,
Budhanilkantha
*aim of this workshop is to discuss and modify
SOP for localization
First Draft
Modification and
localization
Modification and
localization
Localization for 3 municipalities
Second Draft
Finalized
Workshops in 3 municipalities will be
conducted in this period.

5. 17
Testing stage
MoFALD Local Disaster Risk
Management Planning Guideline,
2011
Feedback
Implementation
Revision of Guideline
by Flagship 4 2. Upgrade of Annex : Template
(Table of Contents of Actual
LDRMP)
according to mainly Risk
Assessment and Sendai
Framework for DRR
3. Formulation of Technical
Guideline to support
formulation by Local Bodies
Approval of revised
Guideline by National
Steering Committee
4. Pilot Activities
(LDRMP Formulation
for 3 pilot muni.)
Finalization of Guideline
JICA Project
Activity
[Separate Document]
～May 2017
May～Dec 2017
～Apr 2017
Formulation of Disaster Risk Reduction and
Management (DRRM) Plan with Guideline
(Dec 2016 - Dec 2017)
1. Integration of Risk
Assessment part
18
Utilization image of Risk Assessment Results for DRR
(Summary)
Building
damage
Setting Target
Value for DRR
Setting Target
Value for DRR
Considering
Countermeasures
to achieve targets
Considering
Countermeasures
to achieve targets
Reduce the number of
100 50 or more fewer
Reduce the number of
Deaths
100 ⇒ 50 or more fewer
Reduce the number of
10,000 3,000
Reduce the number of
Evacuees
10,000 ⇒ 3,000
Reduce the number of
2,000 1,000
Reduce the number of
Heavy damage building
2,000 ⇒ 1,000
Seismic resistance of housing
Mason training
Building code implementation
Development of Evacuation sites
Securing Stockpiles
LDRMPLDRMP
Result of Risk AssessmentResult of Risk Assessment
Number of
death
Target year 2030
Image of the Plan
20162016 20302030
Infrastructure, Lifeline
Damage, Economic Loss
You can understand How much
seismic resistance of housings
are required
You can understand How much
stockpiles are required
Seismic resistance of Schools, etc.
You can understand Risk and
can consider the Priority
CBDRRM Activities
(Dec 2016 - Dec 2017, Implementation of BBB & DRRM Plan)
• CBDRRM Training for Municipality
Officers and Relevant Stakeholders
Step 1 (20-22 Feb 2017)
• CBDRRM Activities in a selected pilot
ward in each pilot municipality
Step 2 (Apr – Oct 2017)
• Feedback to the Local DRRM Plans
Step 3 (Nov – Dec 2017)
Flow of the Activities
1. Target Participants: 10 officers and relevant
stakeholders who relate to DRRM Activities in each
pilot municipality (Total 30)
2. Venue: Bhangeri Durbar Resort, Nagarkot
3. Program (3 days)
Know Earthquake mechanism and risks
Learn DRRM and CBDRRM incl. 9 Minimum
Characteristics of CBDRRM in Nepal
CBDRRM Mapping
CBDRRM Planning
Pilot Wards/Location
Lalitpur SMC Budhanilkantha Bhaktapur
Ward-8/ Gokul
Chaur
Ward-2
(former Ward 2
and 3)
Ward-3
(former Ward 13
and 16)
Targets of the Activities
(*due to restructuring of wards, the target areas were modified)
Step 1: Training for Municipality Officers
Details of the Activities
Step 2: CBDRRM Activities in Pilot Wards
1. Target Participants: 30 persons (members of CDMC,
and other relevant residents) in a ward
2. Venue: appropriate place in the selected pilot ward
3. Program (3 main events and follow-ups)
1st Workshop (2 days): Learning Risk and DRRM
System in Community
2nd Workshop (2 days): Formulation of CBDRRM
Map
3rd Workshop (1 day): Formulation of Action
Plan/ DRRM Plan for Community
CBDRRM Step 1: 3-day CBDRRM Training for Municipality Officers
and Relevant Stakeholders: 20-22 February 2017
1. Result
30 participants from three pilot municipalities
Enhanced capacities and ownerships of
municipality officers on promoting CBDRRM
activities in each municipality
Created a basis for sustainable CBDRRM
activities in each municipality with a sound
understanding of the importance and needs of
the activities of the municipality officers
Lecture by MoFALD Exercise for Community
DRR Mapping
Discussion on Action Plan for
Promoting CBDRRM
Certificate Distribution
by JS of MoFALD

6. 1st Workshop (2 day)
Learning Risk and DRRM
System in Community
1) Learning Earthquake Hazard
and Risks
2) Learning Basics of Disaster
Risk Reduction and
Management
3) Review and Discussion on
Community's Current Situation
of DRRM and HVCA Assessment
+Follow-up Activities ** (Apr-Jun)
(Documentations, etc.)
2nd Workshop (2 days)
Formulation of Community-
based DRRM Map
1) DRRM Town Watching (Field
Survey by Community)
2) Community DRRM Mapping
3) Discussion on Evacuation Plan
+Follow-up Activities (Jul-Aug)
(Finalization of Map,
Documentations, etc.)
3rd Workshop (1 day)
Formulation of Action Plan/
DRRM Plan for Community
1) Disaster Response Plan for
Community (Information
Dissemination/ Response
Teams/ Equipment and Stocks)
2) Discussion on Action Plans for
Improving DRRM System and
Conditions in Community
3) Ward-level DM Planning
+Follow-up Activities (Sep-Oct)
(Finalization of Plans, Approval
procedure, etc.)
9 MCs: No. 2 & 3 9 MCs: No. 3, 4 & 9 9 MCs: No. 5, 6, 7 & 8
Risk Assessment Hazard & Risk Maps Local DRRM Plans
Pre-Coordination:
Coordination for Designation of the Participants
(CDMC Members + @)
9 MCs*: No. 1
Basic Information
*MCs: Minimum Characteristics
of NRRC Flagship 4
**Follow-up Activities will be
done by the selected members
Feedback
April (6-7: Lalitpur/ 9-10:
Budhanilkantha/tbd: Bhaktapur) June-July August- September
CBDRRM Step 2: CBDRRM Activities in Pilot Wards
March
A Community Activity based on
Action Plan (each pilot ward)
22
Effective Utilization of Project Outcomes
Who will utilize the results of the project
Stakeholders dealt with Disaster Risk Reduction
and Management such as Central and Local
Governments, Relevant Organizations including
NGOs/INGOs, Research Institutes, Private Sector,
Communities, and others are expected to make
effective utilization of the results of the Project to
reduce damages from the estimation results.
23
How to ensure to take actions by various
stakeholders to move forward to implement
prevention and mitigation measures
Needless to say but without implementation, the
same or the worse tragedy will occur by earthquakes.
How to ensure to take actions by various
stakeholders are the key. Not to scare people by the
result of risk assessment, realize the scale of
damages properly, and effective measures need to
be proposed having incentives to the implementers.
Dr. Nishikawa, special guest speaker will
talk more later!
Dr. Nishikawa, special guest speaker will
talk more later!
Effective Utilization of Project Outcomes
24
Remarks
Scenario Earthquakes are not the prediction
of next earthquake.
Based on the scenario earthquakes, hazard
and risk are assessed for KV to utilize for the
purpose of policy making and planning, and
others for effective Disaster Risk Reduction
and Management efforts.
Remarks
Scenario Earthquakes are not the prediction
of next earthquake.
Based on the scenario earthquakes, hazard
and risk are assessed for KV to utilize for the
purpose of policy making and planning, and
others for effective Disaster Risk Reduction
and Management efforts.

7. 25
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