This presentation is the part of 12-day (28 January–8 February 2019) training workshop on “Multi-scale Integrated River Basin Management (IRBM) from the Hindu Kush Himalayan Perspective” organized by the Strengthening Water Resources Management in Afghanistan (SWaRMA) Initiative of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), and targeted at participants from Afghanistan.

1. Scenario Planning
Training - Integrated river basin management
Strengthening Water Resources Management in Afghanistan (SWaRMA)
WAHID, SHAHRIAR

2. Imagine …
The River A is controlled
by the Dam A upstream.
City, Industrial plants and
irrigation system have different
demands and different
economic return on water use
GW 50%
SW 10%
Recycled 10%
Dam A 30%
B-City
Industry B
Irrigation B
Basin A
Basin B

3. Project cycle
05
06 01
02
0304
Assessing
data collection and
analysis; creation of a
shared information base
Strategizing
development of strategies to
meet the vision under
different scenarios
Implementing
execution of plans
Planning
detailed planning based on
most likely scenarios and
related strategies
Visioning
initial problem identification,
visioning
Reflecting
analysis of monitoring and
documentation to inform
further cycles

4. Outcome – master plan
NOW
Future 1
Future 2
(preferred)
Future 3
Master Plan
(fixed
strategy)
PAST
Time
State
Visioning to planning

5. Uncertainty and complexity
Visioning to planning

6. Are you ready?
• Master plan does not anticipate RISK of abrupt changes or
uncertainty in the drivers of change
• Is not flexible, and inherently unresponsive to the risks
• Management commitment to plan fixed
• Can not respond to abrupt change
• Lost opportunity
• Do not perceive new opportunities well in advance
• Can have strong differences of opinion
• each of which has its merits
Visioning to planning

7. Types of futures
2050
“likely to” happen
(current trends)
Plausible
“could” happen
(current knowledge)
Where we
are now
Possible
“might” happen
(future knowledge)
Probable
Where we
Might be
• Scenario 1
• Scenario 2
• Preferred
2020
Sudden shock
Scenarios planning

8. Tools for futures analysis
Future Tool Time-horizon
(years)
Expert Vs
Participative
Probable Trend Analysis 2-5 E++
Delphi method 5-15 E++
Modelling 5-50 E++
Plausible Horizon Scanning 2-5 E + P
Scenario Planning 5-50 E + P++
Preferred Panel/Inquiry 2-5 E + P
Strategic Planning 1-3 E+
Roadmapping 3-7 E++
Scenarios planning

9. Scenarios are..
• A ‘story’ illustrating visions of plausible future or aspects
of plausible future
• Not prediction about the future
• but rather simulations of some possible futures
• Has an infinitesimal probability of occurrence
• Bound by defined range of uncertainties, predetermined trends and
behaviour of actors
Scenarios planning

10. Meant to be active and creative
NOW
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
PAST
Adaptive
Actions
common
to
scenario
1, 2
No-Regret
Actions
common
to
scenario
1, 2, 3
Time
State
• We can create futures
• Recognizing known or hidden drivers of change
• Using both qualitative and quantitative techniques
Scenarios planning

11. How do we do it
What is the
issue
What could happen
(plausible)
What is
planned
When will the
plan fail
No-regret and
adaptive actions
Scenarios planning

12. Scenario Planning steps
1. Frame the focal issue and horizon year
– Comprehensive interview/workshop with an wide range of people
and perspective
2. Identify drivers of change
– that have an impact on the focal issue
– Remember “things change”
– Identify critical uncertainties that have a negative or positive
impact on the focal issue
3. Create impact-uncertainty matrix
4. Prepare the scenarios
5. Identify key strategies from the scenarios
6. Check robustness of the strategies
7. Implementing scenario planning in your organization
Scenarios planning

13. Case study
• B-city Water Supply
Authority (BWSA)
• 2020 - 500,000 people
• 2050 - 700,000 people
• Current water sources
include:
• Groundwater 50%
• Surface water 10%
• Recycled 10%
• Reservoir A 30%
• BWSA current plan
• increase GW use
• Increase recycled water use
• BWSA conducts
consultation, interviews
etc.
• Uncertainty of climate
change prediction presents
a significant challenge
1. Frame the focal issue

14. Case study
• B-city Water Supply
Authority (BWSA)
• 2020 - 500,000 people
• 2050 - 700,000 people
• Current water sources
include:
• Groundwater 50%
• Surface water 10%
• Recycled 10%
• Reservoir A 30%
• As BWSA planners
•
• Write down the most
important drivers of change
that will affect BWSA over
the next 10 years
• Environmental
• Management
• Economic
• Social
• Technological
• Political
• Cultural
1. Frame the focal issue

15. Your turn…Task 1
Environmental
Management
(strategies)
Economic (Costs)
1. List 2-3 drivers
1. List 2-3 drivers
1. List 2-3 drivers
2. Identify drivers of change

16. My take…
Environmental
Management
(strategies)
Economic (Costs)
1. Future temperatures
2. Future precipitation
3. Changes in groundwater processes
1. Investment to develop waste water
recycling program
2. Investment to implement
groundwater recharge program
1. Reservoir A supplies
2. Water use efficiency
2. Identify drivers of change

17. More complex setting

18. More complex setting
D e m a n d D r i v e r s
Village 1 City 1 Irrigation 1 Mine Energy Env
Environment DF1
Management DF1
Economic DF1
Social DF1
Technology DF1
Political DF1
S u p p l y D r i v e r s
Village 1 City 1 Irrigation 1 Mine Energy Env
Priority setting DF1 x x x x
Priority setting DF2
Constraints
Flood control
??
2. Identify drivers of change

19. Models to assess drivers of change
Slightly warmer & wetter climate
Temp: +0.7oC
Precipitation: +3%
Probable A
(modelled performance of plan)
Plan generates surpluses in benign
future climate
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2020 2050
Annualsupply(MCM)
Recycled
Groundwater
Surplus
Hotter & drier climate
Temp: +1.6oC
Precipitation: -10%
Probable B
(modelled performance of plan)
Plan suffers shortages in adverse
future climate
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Annualsupply(MCM)
Recycled
Groundwater
SW
Reservoir A
Dry-year yield
Surplus
Shortage
2020 2050
Reservoir A
SW
2. Identify drivers of change

20. Approach
High impact and
less uncertain
Driving forces
High impact and
more uncertain
driving forces
Low impact and
less uncertain
Driving forces
Low impact and
more uncertain
Driving forces
Uncertainty
Impact
3. Create impact-uncertainty matrix
Can tip the future

21. Identify critical drivers
Critical
planning
issues
Critical
scenario
drivers
Monitor
Monitor and
reassess
Uncertainty
Impact
Construct “scenario matrix” based on the driving forces imppact and uncertainty
3. Create impact-uncertainty matrix
Can tip the future

22. From drivers to scenarios
• Critical planning issue (High Impact, less uncertain) =
“predetermined elements (or trends)”
• should be present in every scenario
• Critical scenario drivers (High Impact, more uncertain =
“critical uncertainty”
• choose the most uncertain of these to prepare the scenarios
• Other “blue drivers”?
• include in your scenarios if you like, and if it makes sense to,
particularly if you think that they will be significant in the future.
4. Prepare scenarios

23. Your turn….Task 2
• Plot your drivers of change on a Impact-uncertainty matrix to
prepare your scenarios
• Pick two drivers from the upper right hand quadrant to build the
scenarios
• Use the drivers listed in the other three quadrants to develop
“back ground story”
• Build the scenarios..
• Stand in 2020 and look back over the major drivers that have impacted
BWSA water supply plan; list the drivers
• Write up a paragraph to describe each of your four scenarios (scenario
story) (see next page. Task 2: Figure 3). They must make sense to your
colleagues.
• Give your scenarios creative titles. Imagine titles that describe the
essence of your scenario, and that is memorable.
4. Prepare scenarios

24. Your turn…Task 2
Scenario 2
Narrative 2
Scenario 3
Narrative 3
Scenario 1
Narrative 1
Scenario 4
Narrative 4
Critical
uncertainty 1
Critical
uncertainty 2
4. Prepare scenarios

25. Good times
New investment in recharge and
reduction in drought duration boost
water supply and improve livelihoods
Future is here
The BWSA failed to attract investment.
However, the WS situation did not get
worse and economy risks stagnation.
Dry and high
The water supply situation got worse.
However, considerable investment in
recharge and recycling provided respite
to the community
Bad times
This is a nightmarish situation for the
BWSA with no investment in WR and
worsening WS situation
New investment to
supply more water
Hotter,
drier
climate
My take…
No investment to
supply more water
Warmer,
wetter
climate
4. Prepare scenarios

26. Recent
Trends Recent
Trends
Water Supply Scenarios
(multiple realizations for each scenario)
Water Demand Scenarios
More complex case
4. Prepare scenarios

27. From scenarios to strategy
• Scenarios provide ‘clues’ about what might be important
drivers of change in the future, and how those drivers
might interact and affect the stakeholders.
• Next, we will identify strategies (response)
• given what we know about how the future might develop
• Approaches to strategies
• Address the full range of scenarios considered
• Some strategies could address multiple scenarios while others work
very well in only one or two scenarios
5. Identify key strategies from the scenarios

28. From scenarios to strategy
0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Water shortage cost ($ billions)
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Water supply
cost
($ billions) Probable A
Probable B
$3.4 billion in supply cost
$1.9 billion in shortage cost
Current BWSA Plan
$3.3 billion in supply cost
$0 in shortage cost
5. Identify key strategies from the scenarios

29. From scenarios to strategy
0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Water shortage cost ($ billions)
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Water supply
cost
($ billions)
Current BWSA Plan
(200 Scenarios)
5. Identify key strategies from the scenarios

30. From scenarios to strategy
0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Water shortage cost ($ millions)
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Water supply
cost
($ millions)
Current BWSA Plan
$5.25 million cost
threshold
Current plan generates
high costs in 120 of 200
Scenarios
5. Identify key strategies from the scenarios

31. From scenarios to strategy
0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Water shortage cost ($ millions)
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Water supply
cost
($ millions)
Current BWSA Plan
$5.25 million cost
threshold
Environmental
• Future temperatures
• Future precipitation
• Changes in groundwater
processes
Performance of
Management
Strategies
• Investment to develop waste-
water recycling program
• Investment to implement
groundwater replenishment
Costs of Future
Supplies and
Management
Activities
• Dam A supplies
• Water use efficiency
Statistical Analysis suggests
that these three factors are
sources of 70% of
vulnerabilities
5. Identify key strategies from the scenarios

32. Your turn…Task 3
Source Response
Future precipitation
Changes in GW
processes
Development of waste-
water recycling
program
5. Identify key strategies from the scenarios

33. My take…
Source Response
Future precipitation Monitoring and
modelling (MM)
Changes in GW
processes
Capture storm water
for recharge (RG)
Development of waste-
water recycling
program
Speed up recycling
system expansion (RC)
5. Identify key strategies from the scenarios

34. Check the robustness of strategies
0 40 8060 100 12020
Number of Scenarios (Costs > $5.25 million)
Current Plan forever
Current Plan + MM
Current Plan + RG
Current Plan + RC
Current Plan + MM + RC
Current Plan + RG + RC
Current Plan + MM + RG + RC
Current Plan + MM + RG
6. Check robustness of the strategies

35. Check the robustness of strategies
0 40 8060 100 12020
Number of Scenarios (Costs > $5.25 million)
Current Plan forever
Current Plan + MM
Current Plan + RG
Current Plan + RC
Current Plan + MM + RC
Current Plan + RG + RC
Current Plan + MM + RG + RC
Current Plan + MM + RG
Current Plan RC reduces vulnerability substantially
Implementation becomes more challenging
6. Check robustness of the strategies

36. Implementing scenario planning
• When to implement
• too many external uncertainty and critical decisions to be made
• organization needs shared context, shared views and shared forward
view
• How to implement
• Take the time to engage stakeholders so they are familiar with the
process, its aims and expected outcomes
• Pay attention to communication tools and techniques
• Remember
• The process needs to be contextualised
• Take time, and a lot of energy and persistence.
7. Implementing scenario planning in your organization

37. Possible stakeholder inputs during scenario
planning
Stakeholder
groups
Stages
Drivers of change
and impact-
uncertainty matrix
Probable futures
(Modelling)
Scenario building Strategies
RBA ++ +++ ++ +
Ministries and
departments
++ + ++ +
Expert groups ++ 0 0 +
District admin. + 0 + ++
Local group reps. + 0 0 +
??
7. Implementing scenario planning in your organization

38. Acknowledgement
Evelina Trutnevyte, Céline Guivarch, Robert Lempert, Neil Strachan (2016). Reinvigorating
the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration. Climatic Change, Volume
135, Issue 3–4, pp 373–379
Robert Lempert (2013). Scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities and robust responses.
Climatic Change Volume 117, Issue 4, pp 627–646
David G. Groves, Robert J. Lempert, Debra Knopman, Sandra H. Berry: Preparing for an
Uncertain Climate Future: Identifying Robust Water Management Strategies, RAND DB-
550-NSF, 2008.

39. RIVER BASINS & CRYOSPHERE 39
Thank you

40. KRB - Water infrastructure development scenarios
• Scenario 1 – The location and low head dams characteristics
(head and installed capacity) are from “1401 MOT
presentation on low head dams” and “JICA transport
master plan”
• Scenario 2 – The dams characteristics (gross storage, live
storage and storage-head relationship) are from
“Environmental Impact Assessments and Commentaries
Regarding the Irrawaddy Dam projects” and Chinese
literature.
• We also tested the model by assuming irrigated crop area
expansion by 2 and 3 times.

41. Traditional vs scenario planning
Traditional planning Scenario planning
Perspective Partial (everything is equal) Overall (Nothing else being
equal)
Variable Quantitative, known Qualitative and
quantitative, hidden or
unknown
Relationships Stable Dynamic and emerging
Explanation Past explains future The future can not always
be explained by past
Picture of the future Simple and certain Multiple and uncertain
Method Deterministic and
quantitative
Quantitative and qualitative
analysis
Attitude to the future Future will be Future is created

42. 5. Identify key strategies from the scenarios

44. Outcome - Master plan
• Master plan
• Strategy - fixed
• Predictive planning - Here we are...There we'll be
• Master Plan development
• Define the preferred future (pick one)
• Examine alternatives for THAT FUTURE only
• Select a SINGLE SCENARIO OF DEVELOPMENT from alternative
scenarios – Master plan
Visioning to planning