Presentation at ARRCC-CARISSA workshop 29 Jan 2019 to 31 Jan 2019

1. Regional Approach for Climate
Services: South Asian Context
Rupa Kumar Kolli
Chief
World Climate Applications & Services Division

2. Joint Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in
India (2001-2004)

3. Climate Change Scenarios for India
Indo-UK Project (2001-04), IITM, Pune, India
• Climate change scenarios developed
using Hadley Centre Regional Climate
Models.
• Model simulations performed for the
current period (1961-90), A2 (high
emissions) and B2 (low emissions)
scenarios for the future period (2071-
2100).
• Temperatures projected to increase by
as much as 3° to 4°C towards the end
of 21st century.
• Large-scale increase in monsoon
rainfall (10 to 30%), but substantial
spatial differences.

4. Key Benefits
• Establishment of the framework for multi-disciplinary research in
climate change impacts.
• Successful application of state-of-art modelling tools and capacity
building.
• Comprehensive picture of impacts of climate change facilitating
regional/national inputs to the UNFCCC processes and policy
formulations.
• A large database on scenarios and impacts, that can feed more
detailed studies for many years to come, and underpin future
adaptation strategies.
• Interactions between Indian and UK researchers to share their
experiences and perspectives in the area.
• Facilitated climate networking in South Asia, and helped the South
Asian countries in sharing information on climate change
assessments.

5. Recent Progress
• Substantial progress over the last 15 years
• SASCOM/APN projects strengthen regional cooperation
• Centre for Climate Change Research at IITM with state-
of-the-art modelling and computing capacities
• WMO Regional Climate Centres (RCCs): Beijing, Tokyo
and Pune
• South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF)
• Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)
• CORDEX: South Asian node at IITM
• ARRCC project
• …and more…

6. Regional Approach Rationale
• The Climate Services Information System (CSIS) is the component of
the GFCS most concerned with the generation and dissemination of
climate information, and is considered to be the ‘operational
centre’ of the GFCS.
• The country-focused results based framework for WMO
contributions to the GFCS focuses on creating the regional delivery
systems, tools and methods, and national capacities for improving
climate-related outcomes.
• A focused regional effort would facilitate systematic strengthening
of early warning services in a comprehensive manner that would
help countries in the region achieve this goal, with facilitated access
to regional information as an essential input for national climate
services.
• The approach can be demonstrated in a few target regions and up-
scaled to other regions.

7. Basic Building Blocks
• CSIS minimum (core) functions
– Data (historic, present, future)
– Monitoring
– Prediction (sub-seasonal to decadal)
– Projection
• Additional CSIS functions to underpin demand-driven services
• Deployment of Climate Services Toolkit
• Integration with relevant WMO standards and protocols
– GDPFS/WIS/WIGOS
• Partnerships
• Aspects of seamlessness (single window)
• Capacity development
– institutional/infrastructural/procedural/human resources
• Regionally tailored projects
– All the above elements to be identified and in place and fully operational
– All the interfaces between the above elements to be identified and established and to
allow for a lively information exchange

9. Current status of availability and access to data and products from CSIS entities
Availability of data and products (Non-exhaustive list)
9
Climate change
projections
CMIP5
61 models
∼20-200 km
historical run: 1850-2005
nominal timescale
time period: 2100 and
beyond
time resolution: daily
CORDEX
Several global/regional
models
14 domains
∼12-50 km
nominal timescale
time period: until 2100
time resolution: daily
present
Paleoclimatology
proxies
CRU, NOAA
Reconstructed
variables
CRU, NOAA
More than 10
types of proxies
(corals, insects,
pollen, tree
rings, ...)
S2S A2D1850100
Frequency: Daily to monthly
Monthy/seasonal LRF
Global
13 GPCLRFs maps
2 Lead Centers data ∼2.5° × 2.5°
IRI, APCC hindcasts ∼20-30 yrs
C3S skill scores
Frequency: Monthly
Monthy/seasonal LRF
Regional
8 RCCs maps
3 RCC-Networks data ∼30 km
Frequency: Quarterly
Updates
Global
GSCU (Trial)
El Niño/La Niña Update
Frequency: Once or twice per year
Probabilistic outlook and consensus
statement
Regional National
19 RCOFs NCOFs
T2m, RR, SSTs, MSLP, T850, Z500
T2m, RR
Major
circulation
features
T2m, RR
Frequency: Sub-daily, daily or monthly
In situ data
Global Regional National
GHCN-Daily RBSN BOM CDO
∼90 000 stations ∼4 000 stations ∼16 000 stations
Climate extreme indices
ETCCDI: 27 indices for more than 100 countries
ICA&D: > 50 indices for more than 15 000 stations
Gridded data and Remote sensing
gridded merged data data
CRU: 0.5° × 0.5° EUMETSAT satellite-based
GPCP: 1.0° × 1.0° WDC-RSAT data ∼few km
CMAP: 2.5° × 2.5° NOAA NCEI: radar data ∼few km
Atmospheric measurements
6 GAW WDCs: > 1 400 stations
Reanalysis
more than 10 global reanalysis: > 100 km
ERA-Interim, ERA-15, ERA-40, NCEP-NCAR, JRA-55, …
dynamical downscaling
of global reanalysis: CORDEX, CaRD10
regional reanalysis: NARR, ASR
Graphical tools
ENACTS IRI Map Room
maps maps, graphics,
data: > 30 years, 4-5 km grid animations, data
ClimatView WMO WWIS
station monthly T2m, RR station normals T2m, RR
1982-present, > 2 500 stations ∼1 900 stations
More than 200 variables available from stations
∼10-50 km
FORECASTS
CLIMATE VARIABILITY
TIMESCALE
WEATHER
TIMESCALE
CONTEMPORARY PASTHISTORICAL PAST
PROJECTIONS
PREHISTORICAL PAST CLIMATE CHANGE TIMESCALE
Frequency: Annual
Annual to Decadal
predictions
Global
GPC-ADCP
LC-ADCP
global maps
variables averaged
over year 1
and years 1-5
data
time resolution: daily
hindcast data
Updates
Global
GA2DCU (Concept)
T2m, RR,
SLP, MOC
Major
circulation
features

10. Climate Services Toolkit (CST)
10
Climate Analysis
Monitoring PUSH
PULL
USER
INTERFACE
CST
Information flow
Feedback and Requirements
Source: Marina Livezey

11. Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)
• RCCs provide regional climate products in
support of regional and national climate
activities
• Mandatory Functions:
– Operational Activities for LRF
– Operational Activities for Climate
Monitoring
– Operational Data Services, to support
operational LRF and climate monitoring
– Training in the use of operational RCC
products and services
• Highly Recommended Functions:
– Climate prediction and projection
– Non-operational data services
– Coordination functions
– Training and capacity building
– Research and development
• Two modes of Implementation: fully self-
contained RCCs or distributed-function
RCC-Networks
11
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/rcc/rcc.php

12. Third Pole RCC-Network
Proposed Structure (Overall Coordinator: China)
12
• Consortium: China (Lead), Mongolia, Nepal,
Bhutan, Pakistan
Northern TP Node
• Consortium: India (Lead), Nepal, Bhutan,
Bangladesh, Myanmar
Southern TP Node
• Consortium: Pakistan (Lead), Tajikistan,
Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, China
Western TP Node

13. RCOFs Worldwide
13
https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/regional-climate-outlook-products

14. South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF)
Coordinating Institution: RCC-Pune (India Meteorological Department)
Target Seasons: SW Monsoon (JJAS), NE Monsoon (OND), winter (DJF)
Parameters: Rainfall for all seasons. Temperature for OND and DJF
Major forcings on the regional climate: ENSO, IOD, Winter and spring Eurasian Snow
Cover, Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature during spring season, sea
surface temperature patterns over Atlantic Ocean, mid latitude flow pattern north of Asia
etc.
Potential applications of seasonal outlooks: Agriculture (selection ofcrops, crop
yield forecast), Disaster preparedness and risk reduction (impact of floods and
droughts), Public health (disease outbreaks like Malaria, cholera etc.), Energy sector
(expected energy demand scenarios), water management (reservoir) etc.
RCOF frequency: Physical sessions in
April for SW Monsoon & in September
for NE Monsoon. Online session in
November for winter season (December
to February).
Sources of funding: Financial support
for conducting SASCOF activities so far
mainly from WMO through its various
funding agencies like the United
States Agency for International
Development (USAID), Environment
and Climate Change Canada, ARRCC,
etc.
Rainfall Climatology for the period 1951–
2007 over South Asia.
(Data Source: APHRODITE’s Water
Resources Home page:
http://www.chikyu.ac.jp/precip/english/ind
ex.html )
S. No. Country Main rainfall periods
1 Afghanistan Winter (DJF), Spring (MAM)
2 Bangladesh Pre-monsoon (MAM), summer Monsoon (JJAS)
3 Bhutan Winter (DJF), JJAS (summer monsoon)
4 India Winter (JF) for north India, pre-monsoon for south peninsula
and northeast India (MAM), SW Monsoon (JJAS) for most parts
of the country and post monsoon (OND) for south Peninsula.
5 Maldives May to October
6 Myanmar Pre-monsoon (AM), Summer monsoon (JJAS), post monsoon
(ON).
7 Nepal Winter (DJF), JJAS (summer monsoon)
8 Pakistan Winter (DJF), JAS (summer monsoon)
9 Sri Lanka First inter-monsoon (MA), SW Monsoon (MJJAS), second inter-
monsoon (ON)
Source: D.S. Pai, RCC-Pune

15. User Involvement
 To provide a platform for interaction with users of
climate services and promote the use of RCOF
products, the Forum invites representatives of the
user community from climate sensitive user sectors,
include agriculture and food security, health,
energy, water resources, disaster risk reduction and
response, media etc.
 Some of the main forum meetings were also
followed by a joint meeting of climate experts, and
practitioners and decision-makers from these
user sectors and stake holders from the region.
 These joint meetings review various issues related
to the use of climate information to sector specific
applications, sharing the experiences and lessons
learned from the applications of previous SASCOF
products etc.
 The meetings also encourage sector experts
to develop detailed sector specific risk
information including warnings based on the
SASCOF products, and communicate to decision-
makers and the public.
 Special outreach sessions involving media experts
are also conducted to develop effective
communication strategies.
User Forums conducted in
association with SASCOF
Place &
Period
Session
of the
SASCOF
User Forums
Conducted
Pune, India
23 - 25 April 2014
SASCOF-
5
1st User Forum for the
Water Sector (CSUF-
Water)
Dhaka,
Bangladesh
21-22 April 2015
SASCOF-
6
2nd CSUF-Water
Chennai, India
14-15 Oct 2015
SASCOF-
7
1st CSUF-Agriculture
Colombo, Sri
Lanka.
27-28 April 2016
SASCOF-
8
3rd CSUF-Water and
1st CSUF-Health
Nay Pyi Taw,
Myanmar 27-29
September 2016
SASCOF-
9
second CSUF-
Agriculture
Source: D.S. Pai, RCC-Pune

16. WMO Guidance on Regional Climate
Change
• WMO Executive Council decided to promote the use and
interpretation of climate change projections on regional and
national scales
• Need to compare and contrast the various approaches on a regional
scale and to define guidelines for best practices in the generation of
these projections
• Beneficial for countries in a region with common climate concerns
to share their experience
• Given the large uncertainties in climate projections, establishing
good practices in how to represent these uncertainties in
downstream impacts is critical to ensure quality and consistency
• WMO Commission for Climatology (CCl) initiative to identify
requirements and good practices on producing climate change
projections on regional scale, including through RCCs and RCOFs

17. Selected Relevant Partnerships
• White paper with Copernicus Climate Change
Service
• MoU with UNFCCC
– regional cooperation on climate services for
adaptation and mitigation)
• MoU with Green Climate Fund
– programme alignment
– portfolio alignment via GFCS
• Project-specific and institutional agreements with
World Bank

18. Way Forward
• Enhancement of RCC products and services
– Global RCC Review (12-14 November 2018, Pune, India)
– Coordinated RCC support to countries in South Asia (RCC-Beijing, RCC-Tokyo, RCC-
Pune, TPRCC-Network) with links to CORDEX-South Asia at IITM
• Expanding SASCOF product portfolio (monitoring, sub-seasonal products,
regional climate change, etc.), including evolution towards a more inclusive
Regional Climate Forum: South Asian CLImate Forum (SASCLIF) ?
• Sustained Climate Services User Forums, especially for water, agriculture and
health in which some headway has already been made
– Co-production of climate inputs for decision support
• National CSIS implementation including National Climate Forums
• Greater and sustained engagement of regional implementation partners (e.g.,
RIMES, ICIMOD, etc.), including research partners (e.g., IITM, universities, etc.)
• Regional consolidation and complementarity of investments in support of
climate services in South Asia

19. Thank you
RKolli@wmo.int