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Thailand UNDP-GIZ workshop on CBA - Appraisal outcomes

Thailand, 27-28 November 2017 - UNDP and GIZ partnered with the Thailand Office of Agriculture Economics (OAE) to launch a workshop designed to connect vital stakeholders to build an effective National Adaptation Plan. The two-day workshop at the Rama Garden Hotel had 20 participants from each department under the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MOAC). The workshop was designed to build capacity of planning officers to formulate better projects and budget submissions as well as potential climate finance proposal using cost-benefit analysis and ecosystem-based analysis appraisal tools.

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Using CBA/EbA appraisal outcomes in programme
design and budget proposals
With Case Study of Chao Phraya River Basin
Flood Management Infrastructure Program
Glenn Stuart Hodes, Climate Policy & Finance Specialist
UNDP Bangkok Regional Hub
For example, designing a flood management system or reducing emission of methane
in rice paddy require planners & economists to design and implement new measures
Key Challenge for Thailand
Policy direction, plan, and strategy at both
national and sectoral levels are in place
BUT…..
“How can we actually mainstream the climate change
objectives into sectoral programmes and projects?”
Key Challenges for Thailand
Few programmes are dedicated solely
for Climate Change; Climate Change is
usually a second consideration!!
How to Approach: key stages
1. Develop policy and strategy (e.g. CCSPA II)
2. Develop priority actions (e.g., apply MCA)
3. Design/Retool programmes and projects using
appraisal methods (e.g., CCBA, CBA, eBA, CEA)
4. Develop budget and financial proposals (ongoing)
5. Develop M&E Frameworks
6. Field Test
7. Adjust overall plans with ‘reality check’
• Vulnerability Assessment
& Adaptation Plans
• Applied Valuation & Cost
Benefit Case Studies
• Monitoring practices to
measure impact
• Training
National
Level
Local
Level
• Stock take of planning
& budgeting processes
• Identifying entry
points
• Methods (e.g., MCA,
ebA, CCBA)
• Case studies
• Lessons learned
applied to sector
adaptation plan &
guidance
• Training
Supporting Thailand to Integrate Agricultural Sectors into
National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) - Implementation Logic
Feedback
Feedback
Feedback
Start

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Thailand UNDP-GIZ workshop on CBA - Appraisal outcomes

  • 1. Using CBA/EbA appraisal outcomes in programme design and budget proposals With Case Study of Chao Phraya River Basin Flood Management Infrastructure Program Glenn Stuart Hodes, Climate Policy & Finance Specialist UNDP Bangkok Regional Hub
  • 2. For example, designing a flood management system or reducing emission of methane in rice paddy require planners & economists to design and implement new measures
  • 3. Key Challenge for Thailand Policy direction, plan, and strategy at both national and sectoral levels are in place BUT….. “How can we actually mainstream the climate change objectives into sectoral programmes and projects?”
  • 4. Key Challenges for Thailand Few programmes are dedicated solely for Climate Change; Climate Change is usually a second consideration!!
  • 5. How to Approach: key stages 1. Develop policy and strategy (e.g. CCSPA II) 2. Develop priority actions (e.g., apply MCA) 3. Design/Retool programmes and projects using appraisal methods (e.g., CCBA, CBA, eBA, CEA) 4. Develop budget and financial proposals (ongoing) 5. Develop M&E Frameworks 6. Field Test 7. Adjust overall plans with ‘reality check’
  • 6. • Vulnerability Assessment & Adaptation Plans • Applied Valuation & Cost Benefit Case Studies • Monitoring practices to measure impact • Training National Level Local Level • Stock take of planning & budgeting processes • Identifying entry points • Methods (e.g., MCA, ebA, CCBA) • Case studies • Lessons learned applied to sector adaptation plan & guidance • Training Supporting Thailand to Integrate Agricultural Sectors into National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) - Implementation Logic Feedback Feedback Feedback Start
  • 7. 2 การอนุมัติงบประมาณ (Budget Adoption) 1 การจัดทางบประมาณ (Budget Preparation) 3 การบริหารงบประมาณ (Budget Execution) 4 การควบคุมและติดตามประเมินผล (Budget Control & Evaluation) กระบวนการงบประมาณ (Review of Budget Cycle) จาก CCA -> การจัดทาคาของบประมาณปี 2560 7 มูลนิธิสถาบันวิจัยนโยบายเศรษฐกิจการคลัง
  • 8. Bottom-Up Approach to Climate Budgeting MoAC Budget Submission Planning Agencies Budget/Finance Agencies Climate Change Focal Point Key Line Departments
  • 9. The reveal The reforms The integration Budget tagging, budget guidelines and call circularsImproving how to allocate, track and justify budget resources UNDP Supported Actions to Date 1. Capacity building on CC-CBA, and walking stakeholders through mainstreaming entry points as part of budget cycle. NAP-AG supported stock take found only 1 dept in MOAC was systematically using CBA. 2. Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) indicators and a database being set up as a tool for screening and prioritizing the action plan and programmatic areas. 3. Strengthening project design and appraisal processes to integrate CC into budgeting guidelines. Climate budget reforms in Thailand – bigger context
  • 10. 10 1. ความสอดคล้องกับนโยบายรัฐบาล 2. ประชาชนได้ประโยชน์จากโครงการ 3. เหมาะสมตามแผนบูรณาการ 3 มิติ 4. วิเคราะห์ความเหมาะสมของโครงการ - เหมาะสมเป็นพันธกิจของหน่วยงาน - สอดคล้องกับศักยภาพของหน่วยงาน - วิเคราะห์ความครอบคลุมงบประมาณ - วิเคราะห์ปัญหา อุปสรรค และข้อสังเกต 5. ความพร้อมในการดาเนินการของโครงการ CCA Guideline จาก CCA -> คู่มือการจัดทาคาของบประมาณ มูลนิธิสถาบันวิจัยนโยบายเศรษฐกิจการคลัง
  • 11. Extracting Results from CBA to Proposals • Indicate whether and what kind of analysis done to justify project formulation/go-ahead. Is it worth cost of full FS? What are alternative options/land-use choices? • Use in project proforma for investment projects ✓ outline set of activities undertaken to achieve predetermined objectives within set timeframe. • OUTPUTS/DELIVERABLES KEY LINK CBA to BUDGET ✓ Think/value additional cost and benefits in terms of these: # of farmers, fishermen receiving extension service; # of ha with additional irrigation, # of new drought resistant seeds; # m3 of additional biogas, etc. • Three Key Metrics BOB wants to see (at least 1) ✓NPV (must be positive in absolute value) ✓BCR (must be > 1.0 to be convincing) ✓IRR (most important when comparing alternatives) • BOB will also want to see detailed costing and investment estimates
  • 14. CBA for Climate Appraisal: Key Steps © UNDP, 2015. “Climate Change Benefit Analysis Guidelines for Thailand”
  • 15. Mitigation vs. Adaptation • The basic principles of CC appraisal are the same, but … • Mitigation. Planning and budgeting driven by Marginal Abatement Cost or Cost Effective Analysis that shows the cheapest way of delivering on GHG reduction goals. Sometimes are directly productive projects that pay for themselves over time, for example, kWs of energy savings
  • 16. Mitigation II • Marginal Abatement Costs look at incremental net costs (i.e., costs – benefits of incremental unit) divided by the total reduction in GHG emissions • MAC Curve used to decide the ‘pass rate’ for achieving a set target emissions reduction • Great care in units (eg tC or tCO2e) • Costs should include all supporting costs, including all public and private and all managing institutions • Costs and benefits are discounted, but GHG emissions are not (an odd convention, when early emission reduction should be prioritised)
  • 17. Adaptation: forward planning • Adaptation. Are activities going to be affected by gradual CC (ie temp, flood, drought, seasonality, sea-level)? • Most adaptation investment is capital development spending, just with changing priorities/design/geographical targeting. Benefits are often broadly accrued (e.g. irrigation & water resource management) • Some supporting activities may be solely dedicated (i.e. climate- smart seed research, institutional CB). These should probably not take more than 20% of sectoral CC resources. ✓ CBA would be particularly important to justify these as non-revenue generating investments i.e., not self-financing! CC happens slowly, so routine public services will adjust naturally, reflecting changed experience in recent years • Climate Related Appraisal is for those policies/investments that have longer term implications … • Infrastructure with long term ‘locked-in’ features • Research that takes years and then longer to apply • Institution building – often underestimated
  • 18. Model CBA Tree to Value Impacts and Costs
  • 19. Example of Chao Praya Irrigation Project
  • 20. Context 1975 1983 1995 2002 20061942 20112010 8 yrs 12 yrs 7 yrs 4 yrs 4 yrs 1 yr33 yrs Flood events in Chao Phraya river basin 25 river basins The Great Chao Phraya river basin Total area: 2.03 Mha Flood risk: -Moderate [4-5 times/9yrs] 0.16 Mha (8% of total area) - High [> 5times/9yrs] 0.13 Mha (6.6% of total area) พื้นที่เสี่ยงภัยน้ำท่วม เสี่ยงต่า(น้าท่วม1-3ในรอบ10ปี) เสี่ยงปานกลาง(น้าท่วม4-5ในรอบ10ปี) เสี่ยงสูง(น้าท่วม6-10ในรอบ10ปี) Low risk Moderate risk High risk Flood Risk Area
  • 21. Economic areas: Industrial estates mainly in Ayutthaya, Saraburi Urban areas: Bangkok, Nonthaburi, Pathumtani, Samut Prakarn Town: Nakornsawan, Ayutthaya, Nonthaburi Township Agricultural area 65% City & Industrial area 28% Others 7% Land use
  • 22. Flood Diversion Scheme 1 2 3 Expansion of existing Chainat - Pasak Canals Construction of new Rama VI diversion dams Construction of new flood drainage canal Installation of SCADA and telemetery 1 2 3
  • 23. CBA – Baseline Situation Metric Figure Cost $ 3,257 Million Benefit $ 410 Million / yr (from reduced/avoided loss and/or damage) EIRR 14.52 % NPV $ 404 Million Benefit-to-Cost Ration 1.22
  • 24. CBA – With CC Climate Change Data • Is there any relationship between previous floods and CC? • What is the probability of a major flood occurrence? What is its frequency? FS • What will be CBA when CC is incorporated into existing FS? Indirect benefit assessment • What are indirect benefits? • Why do we need to consider these? Existing FS Baseline
  • 25. Values of water Costs of water Ecosystem service value Non-market value to human capital Net benefits from indirect use Net benefits from return flows Value to water users EcologicalEconomicValue EconomicValue Market Value Diminishment of Ecosystem Services Economic Externalities Opportunity Cost of Water Capital Charges O&M EcologicalEconomicCost EconomicCost Supply Cost
  • 26. Quantifying Other Benefit Streams 1. Direct benefits from avoided a loss and damage as a result of the drainage canal/flood diversion in East. • Property damage, accidents, road blockages, etc. • FS uses data from consulting firm. 2. Indirect health benefits • Reduced stress/trauma from psychological effects • Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) used, not the actual market value. Surveys used to indicate WTP.
  • 27. Modeling: Flood Risk Analysis Streamflow simulation (IMPACT-T data) Near Future (2040-2059) vs. Far Future (2080 – 2099) at station C.2, Nakhon Sawan Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Flood risk: Result (base year = 1995) - considered Return Period as index Return Period without CC Return Period with CC 43 years 3-7 years CBA – With CC
  • 28. Flood Damage and Loss (M USD) Flood Area (Ha) Without Climate Change 734 265,774 With Climate Change (Changes of Return Period) 1,826 341,938 Direct Benefits: Damages and Losses Indirect Benefits: Anxiety & Stress reduction 43 years 3-7 years Damage Contingent Valuation Method (CVM)
  • 29. Before & After Metric Figure Cost 63,180 Million Baht Benefit 77,307 Million Baht EIRR 14.52% NPV 14,126 Million Baht B/C ratio 1.22 Shorter Investment Return Period Damages & Losses Anxiety & Stress Baseline With CC Metric Figure Cost 63,180 Million Baht Benefit 294,973 Million Baht EIRR 43.91% NPV 231,793 Million Baht BCA 4.67
  • 30. Broad Conclusions & General Lessons 1. Climate-related appraisal methods and budget guidelines are evolving in Thailand. Watch this space! MoAC leadership is appreciated. Piloting work that UNDP, GiZ and MOAC/RID/DWR have done provide a model way forward. 2. Mainstreaming CC in appraisals will lead to better policy choices, institutional co-ordination (because of cross/multi-sectoral reality of CC impacts) and a qualitatively strengthened NAP & NDC process. 3. Mainstreaming needs champions and pilot programs at sector and line department level. Good practice to engage Bureau of Budget early on in the budget formulation processes. 4. Co-benefits in terms of CC adaptation/GHG mitigation can be addressed in budgeting process as part of routine appraisal of programs.
  • 31. • CC Appraisal for programmes and investment decisions should build upon existing techniques. It should not be a major analytical burden to MOAC/RID/DWR/MONRE • Important to do it during project/programme design, so that it can influence design, even if more qualitative • Estimating Costs Far Easier than Benefits • Knowing and being clear about how CC would generally affect a project is as important as estimating the values • Accept that some estimates will be rough and will act as indicators for monitoring/management. Timeframe key. • Some key rules of thumb provide a good starting point (e.g. a doubling of flood/drought return periods) • Use a combination of techniques and attempt to also ‘triangulate’ results with various studies
  • 32. Disaster Drought Thank you / ขอขอบคุณ