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Tier 3 forest model development and application in UK GHG inventories


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Paul Henshall

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Tier 3 forest model development and application in UK GHG inventories

  1. 1. Paul Henshall Forest Research Alice Holt Research Station Farnham GU10 4LH UNITED KINGDOM Tier 3 forest model development and application in UK GHG inventories COP25, Madrid IPCC Side Event 3rd December 2019
  2. 2. 2 05/12/2019 Where it all began … • First meeting of the IPCC held in November 1988 • Before this, World Conference on Changing Atmosphere (June 1988) • UK recognized early the important role of forests: Motivation • Analytical model of carbon sequestration and losses in forests • Not the only model, probably the first (1988) • First UK Information Note published in Spring 1989 • Other similar models followed in UK (CFLOW) and abroad • Forest Research model eventually named “CARBINE” • “Basics” of ECOSSE soil carbon model now added into CARBINE. Model development “How much carbon are the UK’s forests storing?”… GHG inventories • CFLOW applied in GHG inventories until 2012 (simpler to apply) • CARBINE used since then – push to better represent detailed forest composition and management, soil carbon ...
  3. 3. 3 05/12/2019 Example: Impacts of afforestation -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10NetGHGemissionsincrease/decrease (+/-)(tCO2-eqha-1yr-1) “Savings” “Emissions” Forest machinery etc. Soil Trees Dead and litter Wood products Bioenergy Materials etc. 2030 2050 2100 “A multi-purpose forest stand in UK” planted in 2020
  4. 4. 4 05/12/2019 What’s involved • Carbon stock changes can be estimated using tables of volume production, biomass expansion factors and turnover rates • Reliance on forest yield tables/models dating back to 1960s • (Currently) growth not influenced by changing CO2 or climate. Main assumptions • Framework for systematically integrating and reconciling different country-specific data sources at different scales (e.g. tree allometry, turnover rates, forest areas, age classes, management, wood production) • Easy to update parameters and activity data when available • Projections for policy/scenario assessment are relatively easy • Projections consistent with GHG inventories • Wider applications (e.g. LCA of wood supply chains, economics). Advantages Be aware • No turning back!
  5. 5. 5 05/12/2019 Verification and transparency • Growth models/yield tables calibrated/verified against long-term data from permanent research sample plots (not NFI) • Litter and soil parameters derived from literature reviews • Smaller network of intensive forest monitoring sites provide data for verification of litter and soil • Basic checks against Tier 1 values • High level in inventories: managed forest area consistent with wood production given forest production potentials (yield models) • Forest areas consistent with National Forest Inventory. Verification of model outputs and GHGI results • Documentation needs to be systematic, thorough and understandable to those using model results – can be challenging • Example calculations (simple and complex) to help explain how inputs relate to relate to results • Tier 2 calculations are simpler – easier to check, but still complex to estimate activity data and does not match well UK forests. Transparency of assumptions and calculations
  6. 6. 6 05/12/2019 IPCC Expert Meeting Report • Elements consistent with UK QA processes, with some extensions • Where to find IPCC elements: Basis and type of model NIR/CARBINE documentation Application and adaptation of model NIR/QA documentation Main equations and processes NIR/CARBINE documentation Key assumptions QA documentation Domain of application QA documentation Estimation of model parameters CARBINE documentation Other reports (e.g. growth models) Key inputs and outputs NIR/CARBINE documentation Separate “RECONCILE” report Model calibration and evaluation CARBINE report Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis Separate report (in progress) QA/QC procedures Internal Forest Research procedures References to literature CARBINE documentation • Has needed sustained effort (development, documentation, data).
  7. 7. Thank you Tier 3 forest model development and application in UK GHG inventories Paul Henshall Forest Research