"Measuring for results in conflict, crime and violence affected situations"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Geneva, Switzerland | 8-9 July 2014
UNESCO's Internet Universality Indicators - A Framework for Assessing Internet Development.
Presented by Adeline Hulin at 2018 CMPF conference, Measuring Media Pluralism in Europe - Between on Risks and New Threats
Jennifer Peirce - Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)Geneva Declaration
"Assessing the Impacts of Citizen Security Projects in Latin America and the Caribbean"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Antigua, Guatemala | 28-30 April 2014
PM-ISE SCC statement to DHS on Cyber ISAO executive order 13691 (unofficial)Jamie Clark
Unofficial copy of the text drafted for PM-ISE's Standards Coordinating Council (standardscoordination.org), in response to the US DHS request for comment in March 2015 on implementation aspects of White House Executive Order 13691.
UNESCO's Internet Universality Indicators - A Framework for Assessing Internet Development.
Presented by Adeline Hulin at 2018 CMPF conference, Measuring Media Pluralism in Europe - Between on Risks and New Threats
Jennifer Peirce - Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)Geneva Declaration
"Assessing the Impacts of Citizen Security Projects in Latin America and the Caribbean"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Antigua, Guatemala | 28-30 April 2014
PM-ISE SCC statement to DHS on Cyber ISAO executive order 13691 (unofficial)Jamie Clark
Unofficial copy of the text drafted for PM-ISE's Standards Coordinating Council (standardscoordination.org), in response to the US DHS request for comment in March 2015 on implementation aspects of White House Executive Order 13691.
This session will provide an opportunity to discuss the latest legal developments and how they may affect networked services in education. Exact topics will depend on developments in Brussels and Westminster, but may include:
Data retention
Incident response
Data protection
Safe harbour.
Methodologies for Addressing Risks and Opportunities Engendered by Big Data T...BYTE Project
Authors: Rachel L. Finn, Hayley Watson, Kush Wadhwa, Arild Waaler, Ahmet Soylu, Guillermo Vega-Gorgojo, Hans Lammerant, Stephane Grumbach and Scott Cunningham;
Presented at: Critical Explorations of Data and Security Workshop, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, USA
15-16 Nov 2013
Information Infrastructure for Crisis Response Coordination: A Study of local...streamspotter
Torbjørg Meum and Bjørn Erik Munkvold on "Information Infrastructure for Crisis Response Coordination: A Study of local Emergency Management in Norwegian Municipalities" at ISCRAM 2013 in Baden-Baden.
10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
12-15 May 2013, Baden-Baden, Germany
Project COMPACT From research to policy through raising awareness of the stat...Oles Kulchytskyy
COMPACT is a Coordination and Support Action funded European Commission under framework Horizon 2020.
The objective of the COMPACT project is to increase awareness (including scientific, political, cultural, legal, economic and technical areas) of the latest technological discoveries among key stakeholders in the context of social media and convergence. The project will offer analyses and road maps of related initiatives. In addition, extensive research on policies and regulatory frameworks in media and content will be developed.
http://compact-media.eu/
A presentation from Urska Umek at the Council of Europe on the Online and offline threats to media pluralism. Presented at the 2018 CMPF conference, Measuring Media Pluralism in Europe - Between Old Risks and New Threats.
ODDC Context - Open data, public budget and its relations to people’s rights ...Open Data Research Network
Presentation in the first workshop of the Exploring the Emerging Impacts of Open Data in Developing Countries project. Looking at the context of open data, and the research case study planned for 2013 - 2014. See http://www.opendataresearch.org/project/2013/inesc
ODDC Context - An Investigation of the use of the Online National Budget of N...Open Data Research Network
Presentation in the first workshop of the Exploring the Emerging Impacts of Open Data in Developing Countries project. Looking at the context of open data, and the research case study planned for 2013 - 2014. See http://www.opendataresearch.org/project/2013/unilorin
On 4 October 2016, as part of the GDPR Workshop series, the Brussels Privacy Hub hosted a workshop on implementation of the EU GDPR and Privacy Impact Assessment. Trilateral delivered a joint presentation by Rowena Rodrigues and Julia Muraszkewicz, exploring some of the challenges associated to DPIAs and EPIAs. The presentation was based upon two of Trilateral’s research projects: SATORI and iTRACK.
Overview of national cybercrime strategiesBenjamin Ang
This is an overview of national cybercrime strategies, presented at the INTERPOL ASEAN Cyber Capacity Development Project’s (ACCDP) Decision Makers Meeting. It reviews best practices in developing national cybersecurity and cybercrime strategies, key pillars to consider, the life-cycle of the strategy process, stakeholders to engage, and best practices.
This session will provide an opportunity to discuss the latest legal developments and how they may affect networked services in education. Exact topics will depend on developments in Brussels and Westminster, but may include:
Data retention
Incident response
Data protection
Safe harbour.
Methodologies for Addressing Risks and Opportunities Engendered by Big Data T...BYTE Project
Authors: Rachel L. Finn, Hayley Watson, Kush Wadhwa, Arild Waaler, Ahmet Soylu, Guillermo Vega-Gorgojo, Hans Lammerant, Stephane Grumbach and Scott Cunningham;
Presented at: Critical Explorations of Data and Security Workshop, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, USA
15-16 Nov 2013
Information Infrastructure for Crisis Response Coordination: A Study of local...streamspotter
Torbjørg Meum and Bjørn Erik Munkvold on "Information Infrastructure for Crisis Response Coordination: A Study of local Emergency Management in Norwegian Municipalities" at ISCRAM 2013 in Baden-Baden.
10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
12-15 May 2013, Baden-Baden, Germany
Project COMPACT From research to policy through raising awareness of the stat...Oles Kulchytskyy
COMPACT is a Coordination and Support Action funded European Commission under framework Horizon 2020.
The objective of the COMPACT project is to increase awareness (including scientific, political, cultural, legal, economic and technical areas) of the latest technological discoveries among key stakeholders in the context of social media and convergence. The project will offer analyses and road maps of related initiatives. In addition, extensive research on policies and regulatory frameworks in media and content will be developed.
http://compact-media.eu/
A presentation from Urska Umek at the Council of Europe on the Online and offline threats to media pluralism. Presented at the 2018 CMPF conference, Measuring Media Pluralism in Europe - Between Old Risks and New Threats.
ODDC Context - Open data, public budget and its relations to people’s rights ...Open Data Research Network
Presentation in the first workshop of the Exploring the Emerging Impacts of Open Data in Developing Countries project. Looking at the context of open data, and the research case study planned for 2013 - 2014. See http://www.opendataresearch.org/project/2013/inesc
ODDC Context - An Investigation of the use of the Online National Budget of N...Open Data Research Network
Presentation in the first workshop of the Exploring the Emerging Impacts of Open Data in Developing Countries project. Looking at the context of open data, and the research case study planned for 2013 - 2014. See http://www.opendataresearch.org/project/2013/unilorin
On 4 October 2016, as part of the GDPR Workshop series, the Brussels Privacy Hub hosted a workshop on implementation of the EU GDPR and Privacy Impact Assessment. Trilateral delivered a joint presentation by Rowena Rodrigues and Julia Muraszkewicz, exploring some of the challenges associated to DPIAs and EPIAs. The presentation was based upon two of Trilateral’s research projects: SATORI and iTRACK.
Overview of national cybercrime strategiesBenjamin Ang
This is an overview of national cybercrime strategies, presented at the INTERPOL ASEAN Cyber Capacity Development Project’s (ACCDP) Decision Makers Meeting. It reviews best practices in developing national cybersecurity and cybercrime strategies, key pillars to consider, the life-cycle of the strategy process, stakeholders to engage, and best practices.
Common Good Digital Framework Action Plan
PURPOSE
The Common Good Digital Framework (CGDF) will serve as a platform to bring
authoritative knowledge and raise awareness about violations of ethical values
and standards by governments and large organizations.
The platform will monitor and alert against the misuse of Artificial Intelligence
(AI), personal data, and neglect of cyber security. The objectives of the
campaign are to stimulate and galvanize civil society towards the need to create
new norms and regulations, and therein influence public and private AI and
cyber policy.
Supporting the global efforts in strengthening the safety, security and resilience of Cyberspace, the Commonwealth Cybersecurity Forum 2013, organised by the Commonwealth Telecommunications Organisation. The ceremonial opening examined how Cyberspace could be governed and utilised in a manner to foster freedom and entrepreneurship, while protecting individuals, property and the state, leading to socio-economic development. Speakers of this session, Mr Mario Maniewicz, Chief, Department of Infrastructure, Enabling Environment and E-Applications, ITU; Mr David Pollington, Director, International Security Relations, Microsoft; Mr Alexander Seger, Secretary, Cybercrime Convention Committee, Council of Europe; Mr Nigel Hickson, Vice President, Europe, ICANN and Mr Pierre Dandjinou, Vice President, Africa, ICANN, added their perspectives on various approaches to Cybergovernance, with general agreement on the role Cyberspace could play to facilitate development equitably and fairly across the world.
Hosted by the Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications of Cameroon together with the Telecommunications Regulatory Board of Cameroon and backed by partners and industry supporters including ICANN, Council of Europe, Microsoft, MTN Cameroon, AFRINIC and Internet Watch Foundation, the Commonwealth Cybersecurity Forum 2013 seeks to broaden stakeholder dialogue to facilitate practical action in Cybergovernance and Cybersecurity, some of which will be reflected in the CTO’s own work programmes under its Cybersecurity agenda.
#COVIDaction, a partnership between DFID’s Frontier Technology Hub, Global Disability (GDI) Hub, UCL Institute of Healthcare Engineering along with other collaborators will be working to build a technology and innovation pipeline to support action related to the COVID pandemic.
Resilience Shift Policy Symposium - the role of public policy - Dr Svenja KeeleThe Resilience Shift
The Resilience Shift Policy Symposium took place on Wed 15 May 2019 in Melbourne Australia. This presentation was by Dr Svenja Keele and Professor Lars Coenen, from the University of Melbourne, who talked about the role of policy and the ‘policy spectrum’ as captured in the published report. The Symposium explored ways to incentivise resilience - by understanding the key drivers, and exploring the use of different policy approaches to enhance critical infrastructure resilience.
Strategies to enhance research impact: Six lessonsODI_Webmaster
John Young's presentation at the GDN workshop on 'Maximizing the Impact of Agricultural Research in Africa' held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in October 2008. In his talk, he reviews and expands upon the six lessons that ODI's RAPID programme has learned about helping research inform policy and practice.
DELSA/GOV 3rd Health meeting - Barbara UBALDIOECD Governance
This presentation by Barbara UBALDI was made at the 3rd Joint DELSA/GOV Health Meeting, Paris 24-25 April 2014. Find out more at www.oecd.org/gov/budgeting/3rdmeetingdelsagovnetworkfiscalsustainabilityofhealthsystems2014.htm
Gerard Wandera, Deputy Director, Kenya School of Government (KSG)Geneva Declaration
"Policing Contemporary Kenya- KPR and Private Security"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Nairobi, Kenya | 26-27 November 2014
http://www.genevadeclaration.org/2014rrc/rrckenya/programme.html
Introduction to the Global Alliance on Armed Violence (GAAV)
Information meeting on the 2014 Regional Review Conferences on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Geneva, 19 February 2014
Jasmin Nario-Galace, Center for Peace Education-Miriam College | PhilippinesGeneva Declaration
Session on "The Role of National Action Plans on Women, Peace and Security in Preventing and Reducing Armed Violence"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Manila, Philippines | 8-9 October 2014
http://www.genevadeclaration.org/en/2014rrc/rrcphilippines/programme.html
James Ngului, Deputy Director, Kenya National Focal Point on Small Arms and L...Geneva Declaration
Session on "Controlling the tools of violence"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Nairobi, Kenya | 26-27 November 2014
http://www.genevadeclaration.org/2014rrc/rrckenya/programme.html
Karen Tañada, Gaston Z. Ortigas Peace Institute | PhilippinesGeneva Declaration
"Ideas and Lessons on Women and Peace Processes based on experiences in the Philippines"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Manila, Philippines | 8-9 October 2014
http://www.genevadeclaration.org/en/2014rrc/rrcphilippines/programme.html
Philip Alpers, GunPolicy.org & Sydney School of Public Health | AustraliaGeneva Declaration
"Is a Polite Society a Less Armed Society? – The Pacific Experiment"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Manila, Philippines | 8-9 October 2014
Kapil Kafle, Institute of Human Rights Communication Nepal (IHIRCON) | Nepal Geneva Declaration
Session on "The role of media in armed violence reduction and prevention (AVRP) and development"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Manila, Philippines | 8-9 October 2014
Philip Alpers, GunPolicy.org & Sydney School of Public Health | AustraliaGeneva Declaration
"Misuse of Small Arms in Asia and the Pacific"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Manila, Philippines | 8-9 October 2014
Nicola Williams, Global Alliance on Armed Violence (GAAV)Geneva Declaration
"The Role of National Action Plans on Women, Peace and Security in Preventing and Reducing Armed Violence"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Manila, Philippines | 8-9 October 2014
Frank Boateng Asomani, National Commission on Small Arms & Light Weapons | ...Geneva Declaration
Session on "Controlling the tools of violence"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Nairobi, Kenya | 26-27 November 2014
"Building Consensus for Peace in the Post-2015 Development Agenda"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Nairobi, Kenya | 26-27 November 2014
Robert Buluma, Manager, Population & Social Statistics, Kenya National Burea...Geneva Declaration
"Inclusion of Peace & Violence Reduction in Post 2015 Development Agenda"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Nairobi, Kenya | 26-27 November 2014
François Amichia, Mayor of Treichville-Abidjan | Côte d'Ivoire Geneva Declaration
"la violence urbaine et le rôle des villes dans la réduction et la prévention de la violence armée"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Nairobi, Kenya | 26-27 November 2014
"Women, disarmament, non-proliferation and arms control"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Nairobi, Kenya | 26-27 November 2014
"Guideline for the session on 'community- based strategies and approaches"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Nairobi, Kenya | 26-27 November 2014
"Alternative approaches to Education: Talent Academies Pilot In Kenya"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Nairobi, Kenya | 26-27 November 2014
Session on "Working with victims and survivors of armed violence"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Nairobi, Kenya | 26-27 November 2014
"Problems of small arms and light weapons in the ECOWAS region"
Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
Nairobi, Kenya | 26-27 November 2014
Monitoring Health for the SDGs - Global Health Statistics 2024 - WHOChristina Parmionova
The 2024 World Health Statistics edition reviews more than 50 health-related indicators from the Sustainable Development Goals and WHO’s Thirteenth General Programme of Work. It also highlights the findings from the Global health estimates 2021, notably the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy and healthy life expectancy.
This session provides a comprehensive overview of the latest updates to the Uniform Administrative Requirements, Cost Principles, and Audit Requirements for Federal Awards (commonly known as the Uniform Guidance) outlined in the 2 CFR 200.
With a focus on the 2024 revisions issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), participants will gain insight into the key changes affecting federal grant recipients. The session will delve into critical regulatory updates, providing attendees with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate and comply with the evolving landscape of federal grant management.
Learning Objectives:
- Understand the rationale behind the 2024 updates to the Uniform Guidance outlined in 2 CFR 200, and their implications for federal grant recipients.
- Identify the key changes and revisions introduced by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the 2024 edition of 2 CFR 200.
- Gain proficiency in applying the updated regulations to ensure compliance with federal grant requirements and avoid potential audit findings.
- Develop strategies for effectively implementing the new guidelines within the grant management processes of their respective organizations, fostering efficiency and accountability in federal grant administration.
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Presentation by Jared Jageler, David Adler, Noelia Duchovny, and Evan Herrnstadt, analysts in CBO’s Microeconomic Studies and Health Analysis Divisions, at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Summer Conference.
Understanding the Challenges of Street ChildrenSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
Donate to charity during this holiday seasonSERUDS INDIA
For people who have money and are philanthropic, there are infinite opportunities to gift a needy person or child a Merry Christmas. Even if you are living on a shoestring budget, you will be surprised at how much you can do.
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-to-donate-to-charity-during-this-holiday-season/
#charityforchildren, #donateforchildren, #donateclothesforchildren, #donatebooksforchildren, #donatetoysforchildren, #sponsorforchildren, #sponsorclothesforchildren, #sponsorbooksforchildren, #sponsortoysforchildren, #seruds, #kurnool
1. 8 July 2014
Tim Midgley, Conflict and Security
Advisor, Saferworld
tmidgley@saferworld.org.uk
Identifying approaches and
measuring impacts of programmes
focused on transnational organised
crime
2. Transnational organised crime
Aim: to identify and analyse a broad range of approaches
and intervention strategies for tackling TOC, and assess
challenges for measuring impacts
Approach
• identify common, but implicit theories of change
and common assumptions
• review evidence of effectiveness
• identify appropriate datasets and indicators
3. 'The Business': the
money making activities
associated with TOC
Facilitation networks:
systems and actors that
actively support TOC
networks by leveraging
power for criminal gain
Support networks:
community support,
social, ethnic and class
identities, etc.
Global political and
economic system:
trading conditions and
infrastructure, financial
integration,
international norms and
standards etc.
Social, political and
economic
vulnerabilities:
horizontal inequalities,
marginalisation,
patronage networks,
absence of effective
state presence etc.
Image: ClipArtBest.com
4. Image: ClipArtBest.com
Global political and
economic system
Social, political and
economic vulnerabilities
Support networks
Facilitation
networks
‘The
Business’
Theories of Change:
1: Deterrence
2: Severing the links
between politics, the
state and crime
3: Managed
adaptation of crime
4: Cultural change
5: Economic
transformation
6: Global regulation
6
2
1
5
4
5. Datasets and baskets of indicators
Combine
measures of
Capacity
‘Objective’
situation
Perceptions
6. Challenges and ways forward
• Under-developed and contradictory evidence base
• Law enforcement focus
• Lack of comparability across datasets
• Extreme adaptability of TOC
• Local projects, global impacts
BUT
• Evidence base is growing
• New approaches and programmes
7. Implications for development community
• Deepening evidence base (research, M&E, mulit-
sectoral innovation etc.)
• Emphasis on local data gathering and analysis
capacities
• Holistic security and development strategies
informed by understanding of TOC dynamics
• Global indicators
• Global considerations built into domestic policies
8. Thanks for listening!
More information:
saferworld.org.uk/what/post-2015
Contact:
tmidgley@saferworld.org.uk
9. Conflict, Crime and Violence Results Initiative
(CCVRI)
• Support DFID in identifying and applying best
practices and measuring the results of programmes
in conflict affected contexts
• Two work-streams:
• Helpdesk function open to advisors across DFID and
staff from other government departments
• More detailed pieces of secondary research of
selected topics
• Partners: Small Arms Survey (co-ordinators),
Saferworld, CARE International, CDA, Search for
Common Ground and Vera Institute for Justice
Commissioned in recognition that, despite the fact that it has traditionally been considered a law enforcement issue, and beyond the remit of most development actors, it is in fact a critically important issue for development actors to get to grips with.
Over the last few years for example, a growing body of evidence and research has begun to focus on the relationship between crime (and especially transnational organised crime) and key aspects of development, such as poverty, governance and conflict. E.g. WDR 2011 had a substantive focus on ‘external stress factors’- increasing attention being paid to the corrosive impacts of TOC on governance, peace and security- and pointed to (amongst other things) the ways in which TOC can undermine state legitimacy and capacity by co-opting state services and resources towards its own gains, making the state primarily accountable to TOC networks at the expense of the population. (TOC has also become more pertinent issue given developments in a range of contexts, e.g. the opening up of new smuggling routes through West Africa, inter-section of TOC and insecurity in Colombia, Afghanistan etc, links with insurgency and political violence etc.)
The sheer scale of TOC also makes it a difficult topic for development actors to ignore- UNODC estimates value of TOC at about $870 billion per year- (1.5% of global GDP) or size of 93 of the worlds smaller economies. A large number of studies have also shown that there has been a massive increase in scale, power and influence since end of cold war- globalisation has facilitated massive expansion of opportunity for TOC, whilst the growth of global rules and regulations aimed and tackling TOC has simply not been able to keep up.
The aim of the paper was to develop a practical resource that could be used to help advisors and others working in contexts in which TOC has been identified as a challenge to design appropriate interventions, based on evidence of what works. Our approach was to identify common assumptions that guide approaches to TOC, and to collate information about their effectiveness.
(There were several objectives of this paper:
identify common approaches, strategies and assumptions underpinning programmes that aim to tackle TOC
Assess strength of evidence base for some of these assumptions
assess challenges for measuring impacts
identify existing or potential datasets and indicators)
However, in order to do this, we had to first outline how we were conceptualising transnational organised crime. We laid this out in a simple ‘dartboard of crime’- the aim was to try to simply illustrate how TOC operates within, and is dependent on a wide range of external dynamics. Important to see TOC not as an isolated or separate activity, divorced from wider social, political and economic dynamics, but rather as a complex phenomenon that is intimately and intricately linked up with these wider systems.
The Business in the middle- the money making activities of crime- small group of ‘full time criminals’, with access to lots of money and influence
Facilitation networks- those people who make it possible for the business to operate with relative impunity- the corrupt politicians, border guards etc
Support networks- communities that are either complicit in, or turn a blind eye to criminal activities, e.g. by providing safe houses, alabies or not cooperating with the police.
Social, political and economic vulnerability factors- differ from context to context, but might include a lack of an effective state presence, marginaliation or patterns of inequality
Global political and economic system- TOC is able to thrive because it is so well adapted to the global system within which it resides- e.g. global trade infrastructure (ports, internet etc) and deregulated markets make it possible for TOC to transport illicit goods with minimal risk, lack of co-ordination and harmonisation between judicial and law enforcement systems meanwhile allow for criminal actors to escape prosecution, so long they ‘are of use to some government somewhere’ as UNODC put it.
In this paper, we were able to identify and cluster the main approaches to tackling TOC under 6 broad headings, which allowed us to construct 6 ‘high-level’ theories of change that seem to guide the majority of approaches to TOC. (It is important to note that these are rarely explicitly stated as theories of change, and should therefore be understood as ‘implicit’ theories of change rather than those that have been explicitly outlined by any one specific programme or strategy)
I will not go into these in detail, but would be happy to elaborate on any of these in Q&A
(For each Theory of change, we:
Articulated the logic and assumptions behind it
The types of programmatic approaches commonly employed
Evidence of effectiveness
Challenges of measuring programmes guided by these theory of change)
The evidence is not clear cut that indicates that any one theory is more valid than the others- there are plenty of examples of interventions and strategies directed by each theory of change that have been successful, and many similar programmes that have had little or no positive impact, and some very negative impacts. This underlines the need for both context specificity, but also a joined up approach that addresses critical issues at each stage within this system. There are a few interesting patterns that emerge:
The first is different approaches have not been evenly applied- the vast majority of interventions are focused on the inner-two circles- mostly aiming to directly tackle criminal networks by either interdicting and apprehending actors involved in criminal activity (mostly deterrence strategies, but also some of those aimed at breaking the links between politics and crime through anti-corruption agencies etc.)- however the evidence is fairly clear that these strategies, taken in isolation have only limited impact on preventing violence associated with TOC, and in many instances can actually exacerbate conflict, e.g. as can be seen by impact of highly militarised responses to drug trade in Afghanistan, Mexico and Colombia.
A second observation relates to the need to avoid simplistic assumptions about the relationships between TOC and development. We strongly argue that developmental processes should be used to address crime, but it development should not be equated with TOC prevention. Many intervention strategies have sought to promote economic development as an approach to tackling TOC- the theory goes that factors such as poverty and high rates of unemployment drive people into crime as a livelihood strategy, and if they had alternatives within the legitimate sector, they would not engage in criminal activities. There are some contexts where this appears to have been the case- e.g. Thailand moving from being one of the worlds largest opium producers to almost complete eradication. However, more broadly there are no clear cut correlations between poverty rates, unemployment and TOC related violence. In fact, countries with the highest rates of violent crime, such as Honduras, el Salavdor, Jamaica etc tend to be middle income countries with reasonable or strong growth rates. Too often, programmes guided by this theory of change have failed to account for the broad range of factors that drive people to engage in criminal activities.
This relates to a third observation; TOC is extremely adaptable and resilient. (Whilst it does appear to be the case that high income countries meanwhile score higher on rule of law indicices,) there is a strong case to be made that as the economic profile of a country changes, so too does the nature of crime. Take for example consumption patterns of many illicit goods- drugs, counterfeits etc- often luxury items that correlate with levels of disposable income- as incomes increase these countries may move from being producers of, or transhipment zones for illicit goods towards being consumers. This, combined with domestic policies within major consuming countries that tend to focus on limiting the supply of illicit goods into their own markets (e.g. through violent crack down on actors engaged in the production and shipment of goods, rather than on the demand for such goods) can potentially result in the displacement of crime and violence to more vulnerable places. The ultimate impact being a decrease in levels of violence within the country, but a net increase in violence at the global level.
(One relatively under-researched but highly promising approaches to tackling TOC appears to be those that focus on managing the impacts of crime on conflict, e.g. by trying to nudge the types of crime that people engage in towards those that have relatively less impact on conflict. These approaches can however be politically very difficult since they do not necessarily seek to reduce the total amount of crime, and can imply a degree of tolerance of certain types of crime- e.g. through decrimonalisation of certain types of crime, or harm reduction approaches.)
We also identified a range of available and potential indicators, that taken together could form the basis for measuring impact of programmes guided by these theories of change
We tried to pull together a braod range of indicators from existing datasets, as well as potential indicators that could be feasibly developed, which could be used to inform programme design and M&E frameworks. Important to make use of a basket of indicators that
One objective of this paper is to identify the sorts of indicators and associated datasets that could be used to inform approaches to measuring impact in programmes focusing on TOC. For each theory of change we include a short list outlining areas that programmes might seek to measure, with examples of possible indicators that could be used. In all programmes it is important that the right combination of indicators is employed to present a balanced picture of progress. For each theory of change, we therefore suggest a basket of issues (with example indicators) that, taken together may offer a holistic picture of how programmes are contributing to conflict prevention. Each basket combines 3 types of indicators:
Capacity Indicators: is capacity developing to address the key issue?
‘Objective’ Situation Indicators: do statistical measures of actual societal situations show that improvements are being achieved?
Public Perceptions Indicators: does the public feel that an improvement is occurring?
This is important to provide a balanced picture of progress. If for example we take indicators commonly employed to measure progress against interventions that seek to break the links between crime and politics, many make use of widely available perceptions of corruption surveys. These are very valuable datasets, but taken alone can present a skewed or incomplete picture- e.g. perceptions of corruption can be influenced by a large number of things, e.g. widely publicised anti-corruption campaigns, or expose of corruption, can lead to greater public awareness of corruption, yet this same awareness may be an important factor in anti-corruption efforts. These indicators therefore need to be complemented with indicators that demonstrate for example the strength of legislation or institutions to address different aspects of corruption, e.g. money laundering. Such capacity indicators give credit to governments that are taking long term measures that can take many years to yield objective results. However, the ultimate success of such laws and institutions cannot be understood without reference to an ‘objective’ situation indicator: for example, the volume of illicit financial flows from the country in question. However, such statistics are not always accurate, and public/investor confidence is also crucial to the overall success of the exercise of addressing corruption, which brings us back to the perception based indicators.
In addition to the complexity laid out already, there are a number of further challenges associated with measuring the impact of programmes aimed at tackling TOC.
The evidence base necessary to robustly test many of the assumptions that underpin these theories of change remains largely under-developed. Crime statistics are obviously critically important. However they can also be notoriously unreliable and often open to wide interpretation, even in countries with strong data gathering capabilities. (These challenges are only exacerbated in low income and conflict affected countries. Furthermore, the majority of crimes go unreported, meaning that multiple metrics must be employed to develop a picture of the prevalence of crime in any context.
Definitional ambiguities, for example around what constitutes TOC against simply organised crime, or indeed unorganised crime (and even what constitutes crime, for example in a context lacking a developed legal framework or constitution) further complicate data gathering and analysis.)
Where data is available, it has largely been generated from the law enforcement sector (reflective of the focus on most TOC focused efforts to date). Whilst this obviously extremely important, it does not provide a comprehensive picture of the drivers of TOC. Nor does it provide evidence of what works in addressing TOC from a non-law enforcement perspective. Alternative sources of data may be available from other sources, but there may be issues of comparability between datasets generated from very different methodologies ((e.g. there may be geographical or social biases in data gathering between surveys used to assess education and crime levels). The relatively under-developed nature of this evidence base also means that many of the lines of causality between variables (such as homicide rates and employment) remain highly contested, further complicating programme approaches. )
The extreme adaptability of TOC, and the inherently global nature of activities and drivers also create very specific challenges for measurement. As I mentioned earlier, the fact that TOC is able to manifest itself in very different ways in different contexts, meaning that as the social, political and economic nature of a particular context changes, so can the nature of TOC. Likewise, a crack down on aspects of TOC in one place can often simply result in the displacement of that activity to somewhere else, often a more vulnerable context. This complicates efforts to measure TOC because it means that a reduction in one manifestation of TOC, e.g. drug production, in one area may simply imply that that activity has been displaced elsewhere. The net impact of violence or crime may be negligible, or possibly worse.
However, it is not all doom and gloom. The fact that TOC is slowly becoming recognised as a development issue means that a growing number of donors are investing in programmes, research and analysis- new and innovative approaches are being employed, and so long as this is accompanied by rigorous M&E and honest assessment and dissemination of results, then the evidence base will deepen. Furthermore, a lot of data is available from agencies such as UNODC and World Bank.
Finally, some implications of this work for donors and the wider development community:
Continue to deepen and develop the evidence base
Build capacities of local data gathering and analysis institutions in developing countries, e.g. through support to national statistics and crime data gathering institutions
Ensure that integrated development and security strategies are informed by an analysis of TOC dynamics
Identify a set of common, global indicators that can be used to assess the culminative impacts of programmes seeking to tackle TOC beyond the local and national levels- links in with post 2015 discussion we will have tomorrow.
Ensure that all policies and programmes seeking to tackle TOC are informed by an appreciation of the potential global or regional impacts they may have on TOC dynamics- i.e. policies intended to undermine the impact of TOC domestically need to be informed by an understanding of their potential impact in far off locations. Amongst other things, this will require significant co-ordination and co-operation between different legs of governments as well as partnerships with local governments, donor co-ordination and civil society engagement.
The Conflict, Crime and Violence Results Initiative (CCVRI) is an on-going project, funded by DFID, that seeks to support the application of best practices and innovative approaches to measuring impact of programmes operating in conflict affected contexts.
Its is intended to be a resource that advisors from across DFID, and increasingly from other government departments, can draw upon to access specialist expertise on M&E and conflict sensitivity. There are two functions- a helpdesk, whereby advisors and programme staff can submit specific requests for support or short pieces of research to identify best practices to aid in the design, monitoring and evaluation of specific programmes. The second function allows for participating agencies to undertake slightly more detailed pieces of research and analysis, with the aim of developing practically focused tools or guidance materials on selected topics.
This particular paper on crime was from this second category. A range of these guides are available on different topics, e.g. on ICT for peacebuilding evaluation, pros and cons of different evaluation techniques etc. All of these products are available through consortium partners.
The consortium is made up of …
Introduce CCVRI
What it is and how it works