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Kandi Technologies
Group (KNDI)
Aloke Desai
April 6, 2014
Thesis
 Short position ($20,000) in KNDI
 KNDI is overvalued because of investors looking
for the next TSLA (looking at it is if it were an
American company)
 EVs have continuously failed in the past in China
 Lots of competitors, SEC investigation, and
reduced earnings don’t make KNDI one of the
better EV companies in the market
History
 Small-cap Chinese automotive company
founded in 2002 by Hu Xiaoming
 Built mostly electric go-carts until 2008
 Pivoting to low-cost EVs
 Currently China’s largest exporter of EVs to the US
(3,000/year)
Kandi Crush
 Two models:
 JNJ6290 (2 door): $6,800
 JL7001 (4 door): $14,500
 Quick battery exchange
 Battery is leased to reduce
cost
Car Sharing Service
 Meant to compete with popular
bike sharing services
 Hopes to convert nontraditional
drivers, especially during
weather (toxic haze, rain)
 $3.28/hour
 Extremely costly (400k, only holds
30 cars)
 Most people bike because of
lack of parking
Geely Joint Venture
 Recently formed a 50-50 joint venture with Geely
(largest Chinese car company, owner of Volvo)
 Geely has invested $170M, but KNDI will have to
finance much more than this even considered
the 50% equity
 Investors are most concerned about this deal
from conference call
Green Technology in China
 Common misconception that China isn’t
focusing on the environment
 China has been significantly outspending the US
in green technology by almost double
 Pew Research: “China is winning the clean
energy race”
 China has imposed auto efficiency standards,
subsidies, and clean energy tax incentives
Top 10 Countries in Clean Energy Investment
China $34.6B
United States $18.6B
United Kingdom $11.2B
Rest of EU-27 $10.8B
Spain $10.4B
Brazil $7.3B
Germany $4.3B
Canada $3.3B
Italy $2.6B
India $2.3B
Chinese Car Market
 China is world’s largest car manufacturer
 Only 8.5% of Chinese population owns car
 Same rate as America in 1940
 79.7% in America currently
 Urban areas are much more concentrated
 In urban areas many bike because finding a
parking space is incredibly inconvenient
EV Car Market
Name Annual
Capacity
City Price
Zhangjiagang
Haowin New
Energy
Technology
120,000 Shanghai $10,000
Jinan Qingong
International
Trade Co.
104,000 Qingdao $6,400-$8,600
Guangfeng
Xiaoni Trading
Im. And Ex. Co.
96,000 Tianjian $3,500-$7,650
Guangdong
Yatian Industrial
Co.
60,000 Qingdao $6,5000
China EV Reports
 WorldWatch: “China’s Electric Vehicle Development
Failing to Meet Ambitious Targets”
 “targets are overly optimistic and unattainable”
 Only 20,000 new energy vehicles were sold in 2011-
2012, meeting only 4% of the 2015 target
 McKinsey, July 2013
 “Government subsidies have failed to stimulate
consumer demand”
 EV buyers in Shenzhen only sold 600 Evs in 2012 even
though $8,000+ in subsidies
 Quartz
 “Scant sales have turned China away from focusing
on [electric cars] right now”
Parking
 Americans don’t realize how bad parking is in
urban China
 Shanghai: 40M, Beijing: 20M
 Many apartments don’t have attached garages
Chinese Subsidies
 China has planned on EV subsidies, up to $9,800,
until 2015
 Used to be higher, subsidies have been reduced
because of lack of demand
 WorldWarch and McKinsey both show that
subsidies haven’t change private demand—only
public
BYD Auto
 Considered the poster child for EV cars in China
 17B Chinese car manufacturer with heavy
emphasis on electric cars
 Has recently been de-emphasizing electric
vehicles because “hype for electric vehicles has
… gotten ahead of the realities”
5 Year Trend
0
5
10
15
20
25
4/5/05 4/5/06 4/5/07 4/5/08 4/5/09
KNDI 5 Year Trend
Close
Past Month
0
5
10
15
20
25
3/5/10
3/6/10
3/7/10
3/8/10
3/9/10
3/10/10
3/11/10
3/12/10
3/13/10
3/14/10
3/15/10
3/16/10
3/17/10
3/18/10
3/19/10
3/20/10
3/21/10
3/22/10
3/23/10
3/24/10
3/25/10
3/26/10
3/27/10
3/28/10
3/29/10
3/30/10
3/31/10
4/1/10
4/2/10
4/3/10
KNDI 3/6-4/4
Close
4/6:
$14.08
3/6:
$19.5
Financials
Valuation
 Earnings Based:
 Comparables:
 Pre-2013 KNDI: 42
 SAIC (600104.Shanghai): 6.38
 Dongfeng (HK.0489): 8.19
 Great Wall Motors (HK.2333): 11.13
More Complicated Model
 Assume net profit increases by 75% (68% last
year): $30,983,775
 Future Company value: 15* 30,983,775=
$464,756,625
 WACC: 9.7% => discount factor of .831 over the
span of two years
 Current Value: $386,212,755
 Shares Outstanding: 37M
 $10
SEC Investigation
 Reasons for SEC Investigation not disclosed but
KNDI has been investigated by SEC since
November.
 From 10K:
 Investigation could “impose substantial distractions,
regardless of its outcome”
Risks
 Acquisition—very low chance after partnership
with Geely
 Increased subsidies that start working
 Suburbia
Questions

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Short kndi

  • 2. Thesis  Short position ($20,000) in KNDI  KNDI is overvalued because of investors looking for the next TSLA (looking at it is if it were an American company)  EVs have continuously failed in the past in China  Lots of competitors, SEC investigation, and reduced earnings don’t make KNDI one of the better EV companies in the market
  • 3. History  Small-cap Chinese automotive company founded in 2002 by Hu Xiaoming  Built mostly electric go-carts until 2008  Pivoting to low-cost EVs  Currently China’s largest exporter of EVs to the US (3,000/year)
  • 4. Kandi Crush  Two models:  JNJ6290 (2 door): $6,800  JL7001 (4 door): $14,500  Quick battery exchange  Battery is leased to reduce cost
  • 5. Car Sharing Service  Meant to compete with popular bike sharing services  Hopes to convert nontraditional drivers, especially during weather (toxic haze, rain)  $3.28/hour  Extremely costly (400k, only holds 30 cars)  Most people bike because of lack of parking
  • 6. Geely Joint Venture  Recently formed a 50-50 joint venture with Geely (largest Chinese car company, owner of Volvo)  Geely has invested $170M, but KNDI will have to finance much more than this even considered the 50% equity  Investors are most concerned about this deal from conference call
  • 7. Green Technology in China  Common misconception that China isn’t focusing on the environment  China has been significantly outspending the US in green technology by almost double  Pew Research: “China is winning the clean energy race”  China has imposed auto efficiency standards, subsidies, and clean energy tax incentives
  • 8. Top 10 Countries in Clean Energy Investment China $34.6B United States $18.6B United Kingdom $11.2B Rest of EU-27 $10.8B Spain $10.4B Brazil $7.3B Germany $4.3B Canada $3.3B Italy $2.6B India $2.3B
  • 9. Chinese Car Market  China is world’s largest car manufacturer  Only 8.5% of Chinese population owns car  Same rate as America in 1940  79.7% in America currently  Urban areas are much more concentrated  In urban areas many bike because finding a parking space is incredibly inconvenient
  • 10. EV Car Market Name Annual Capacity City Price Zhangjiagang Haowin New Energy Technology 120,000 Shanghai $10,000 Jinan Qingong International Trade Co. 104,000 Qingdao $6,400-$8,600 Guangfeng Xiaoni Trading Im. And Ex. Co. 96,000 Tianjian $3,500-$7,650 Guangdong Yatian Industrial Co. 60,000 Qingdao $6,5000
  • 11. China EV Reports  WorldWatch: “China’s Electric Vehicle Development Failing to Meet Ambitious Targets”  “targets are overly optimistic and unattainable”  Only 20,000 new energy vehicles were sold in 2011- 2012, meeting only 4% of the 2015 target  McKinsey, July 2013  “Government subsidies have failed to stimulate consumer demand”  EV buyers in Shenzhen only sold 600 Evs in 2012 even though $8,000+ in subsidies  Quartz  “Scant sales have turned China away from focusing on [electric cars] right now”
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14. Parking  Americans don’t realize how bad parking is in urban China  Shanghai: 40M, Beijing: 20M  Many apartments don’t have attached garages
  • 15. Chinese Subsidies  China has planned on EV subsidies, up to $9,800, until 2015  Used to be higher, subsidies have been reduced because of lack of demand  WorldWarch and McKinsey both show that subsidies haven’t change private demand—only public
  • 16. BYD Auto  Considered the poster child for EV cars in China  17B Chinese car manufacturer with heavy emphasis on electric cars  Has recently been de-emphasizing electric vehicles because “hype for electric vehicles has … gotten ahead of the realities”
  • 17. 5 Year Trend 0 5 10 15 20 25 4/5/05 4/5/06 4/5/07 4/5/08 4/5/09 KNDI 5 Year Trend Close
  • 20. Valuation  Earnings Based:  Comparables:  Pre-2013 KNDI: 42  SAIC (600104.Shanghai): 6.38  Dongfeng (HK.0489): 8.19  Great Wall Motors (HK.2333): 11.13
  • 21. More Complicated Model  Assume net profit increases by 75% (68% last year): $30,983,775  Future Company value: 15* 30,983,775= $464,756,625  WACC: 9.7% => discount factor of .831 over the span of two years  Current Value: $386,212,755  Shares Outstanding: 37M  $10
  • 22. SEC Investigation  Reasons for SEC Investigation not disclosed but KNDI has been investigated by SEC since November.  From 10K:  Investigation could “impose substantial distractions, regardless of its outcome”
  • 23. Risks  Acquisition—very low chance after partnership with Geely  Increased subsidies that start working  Suburbia