Sonoma county - Public Safety RealignmentPaul Colbert
Why Realignment?
- Coleman/Plata –prison overcrowding lawsuit
- State budget
- Recidivism rate from CDCR
- Research
Realignment does not result in early release of any currently sentenced felons. Realignment does not transfer custody of any prisoner from State Prison directly to County Jail. Rather, it changes jurisdiction of specified populations from state to local control, by changing sentencing and supervision requirements
By Chief Probation Officers of California
http://www.inmatecountyjail.com
The field of corrections, which will be the topic in this next set.docxtodd771
The field of corrections, which will be the topic in this next set of three chapters, encompasses county and state jails, prisons, community corrections, including probation and parole, and various correctional programs. Correctional professionals, like law enforcement and legal professionals, have a great deal of discretion and power over the lives of offenders.
As you may know, the United States has about 2.1 million people in jails and prisons. We incarcerate many more people per capita than other western, industrialized countries. At a rate of about 700 per 100,000, the United States incarcerates about seven times more people than Norway (72), France (98), or Canada (118) and a little less than five times more people than the United Kingdom (147) (Wagner and Walsh, 2016).
The reason our imprisonment rate is so much higher is not because of higher crime, but, because of our inclination to punish with incarceration rather than any other sentencing alternative (Raphael and Stoll, 2008). A careful analysis of sentencing patterns by Pfaff (2011) shows that the dramatic increase in
incarceration rates that began in the 1980s was largely due to the decision of prosecutors to seek prison terms for convicted individuals, and, to a lesser extent, increased sentence length and changes in parole release and revocation.
Further, we were roughly comparable to other countries in our punishment practices until the 1980s, at which time the incarceration rates increased dramatically every year. Recently, the rate and numbers in prison have plateaued, and many states, have even showed decreases in the number incarcerated (Kaeble and Glaze, 2016; Pollock, 2016). The number incarcerated in jail or prison decreased by 2.3 percent from 2014 and was its lowest level since 2004 (Kaeble and Glaze, 2016). Some states have created double-digit declines since 1999, including New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and California. Interestingly, states’ decrease or increase in the number of people imprisoned does not seem to show any correlation with whether the state’s crime rate has increased or decreased (Pew Research Center, 2016).
While the incarceration rate per 100,000 is 466 for white men, it is 1,130 for Hispanic men and an amazing 2,791 for black men. Women are incarcerated at a much lower rate: 51 per 100,000 white women are incarcerated, compared to 65 for Hispanic women and 113 per 100,000 for black women (Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2015). At year-end 2015 an estimated 6,741,400 persons were supervised by U.S. adult correctional systems (prison, jail, probation, or parole). This is a decrease of about 115,600 persons from year-end 2014 and represents almost 3 percent of the total adult population. The interested reader can go to the Bureau of Justice Statistics (https://bjs.gov/) to see how imprisonment patterns have changed over the years.
It is important to emphasize that the imprisonment patterns we see are a function of individual discretion on the par.
Sonoma county - Public Safety RealignmentPaul Colbert
Why Realignment?
- Coleman/Plata –prison overcrowding lawsuit
- State budget
- Recidivism rate from CDCR
- Research
Realignment does not result in early release of any currently sentenced felons. Realignment does not transfer custody of any prisoner from State Prison directly to County Jail. Rather, it changes jurisdiction of specified populations from state to local control, by changing sentencing and supervision requirements
By Chief Probation Officers of California
http://www.inmatecountyjail.com
The field of corrections, which will be the topic in this next set.docxtodd771
The field of corrections, which will be the topic in this next set of three chapters, encompasses county and state jails, prisons, community corrections, including probation and parole, and various correctional programs. Correctional professionals, like law enforcement and legal professionals, have a great deal of discretion and power over the lives of offenders.
As you may know, the United States has about 2.1 million people in jails and prisons. We incarcerate many more people per capita than other western, industrialized countries. At a rate of about 700 per 100,000, the United States incarcerates about seven times more people than Norway (72), France (98), or Canada (118) and a little less than five times more people than the United Kingdom (147) (Wagner and Walsh, 2016).
The reason our imprisonment rate is so much higher is not because of higher crime, but, because of our inclination to punish with incarceration rather than any other sentencing alternative (Raphael and Stoll, 2008). A careful analysis of sentencing patterns by Pfaff (2011) shows that the dramatic increase in
incarceration rates that began in the 1980s was largely due to the decision of prosecutors to seek prison terms for convicted individuals, and, to a lesser extent, increased sentence length and changes in parole release and revocation.
Further, we were roughly comparable to other countries in our punishment practices until the 1980s, at which time the incarceration rates increased dramatically every year. Recently, the rate and numbers in prison have plateaued, and many states, have even showed decreases in the number incarcerated (Kaeble and Glaze, 2016; Pollock, 2016). The number incarcerated in jail or prison decreased by 2.3 percent from 2014 and was its lowest level since 2004 (Kaeble and Glaze, 2016). Some states have created double-digit declines since 1999, including New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and California. Interestingly, states’ decrease or increase in the number of people imprisoned does not seem to show any correlation with whether the state’s crime rate has increased or decreased (Pew Research Center, 2016).
While the incarceration rate per 100,000 is 466 for white men, it is 1,130 for Hispanic men and an amazing 2,791 for black men. Women are incarcerated at a much lower rate: 51 per 100,000 white women are incarcerated, compared to 65 for Hispanic women and 113 per 100,000 for black women (Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2015). At year-end 2015 an estimated 6,741,400 persons were supervised by U.S. adult correctional systems (prison, jail, probation, or parole). This is a decrease of about 115,600 persons from year-end 2014 and represents almost 3 percent of the total adult population. The interested reader can go to the Bureau of Justice Statistics (https://bjs.gov/) to see how imprisonment patterns have changed over the years.
It is important to emphasize that the imprisonment patterns we see are a function of individual discretion on the par.
Effectiveness of a prolonged incarcerationand rehabilitationEvonCanales257
Effectiveness of a prolonged incarceration
and rehabilitation measure for high-frequency offenders
N. Tollenaar & A. M. van der Laan &
P. G. M. van der Heijden
Published online: 8 May 2013
# Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013
Abstract
Objectives To estimate the incapacitation effect and the impact on post-release
recidivism of a measure combining prolonged incarceration and rehabilitation, the
ISD measure for high frequency offenders (HFOs) was compared to the standard
practice of short-term imprisonment.
Methods We applied a quasi-experimental design with observational data to study the
effects of ISD. The intervention group consisted of all HFOs released from ISD in the
period 2004–2008. Two control groups were derived from the remaining population
of HFOs who were released from a standard prison term. To form groups of controls,
a combination of multiple imputation (MI) and propensity score matching (PSM) was
used including a large number of covariates. In order to measure the incapacitation
effect of ISD, the number of convictions and recorded offences in a criminal case of
the controls were counted in the same period as their ISD counterfactuals were
incarcerated. The impact on recidivism was measured by the prevalence and the
frequency of reconvictions corrected for time at risk. Robustness of the results were
checked by performing a combined PSM and difference-in-difference (DD) design.
Results The estimate of the incapacitation effect was on average 5.7 criminal cases
and 9.2 offences per ISD measure. On average 2.5 convictions and 4 recorded
offences per year per HFO are prevented. The HFOs released from ISD showed 12
to 16 % lower recidivism rates than their control HFOs released from prison (Cohen’s
J Exp Criminol (2014) 10:29–58
DOI 10.1007/s11292-013-9179-y
N. Tollenaar (*) : A. M. van der Laan
Research and Documentation Centre (WODC), Turfmarkt 131, 2511 DP Den Haag, Netherlands
e-mail: [email protected]
A. M. van der Laan
e-mail: [email protected]
P. G. M. van der Heijden
Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
e-mail: [email protected]
P. G. M. van der Heijden
University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
h=0.3–0.4). The recidivists of the ISD group also showed a lower reconviction
frequency than the control group recidivists (Cohen’s d=0.2).
Conclusions The ISD measure seems to be effective in reducing recidivism and
crime. The estimated incapacitation effect showed that a large portion of criminal
cases and offences was prevented. DD analysis and sensitivity analyses confirmed the
robustness of the PSM results. Due to the absence of actual treatment data, the effects
found cannot be attributed separately to resocialization, imprisonment, or improve-
ment of life circumstances.
Keywords Double difference . Frequent offenders . Incapacitation . Recidivism .
Propensity score matching
Introduction
Internationally, there has long been interest in the most frequent and persistent
offenders. In the Netherlands ...
Assignment 2 Information Needs of Various Components of the Cri.docxannrodgerson
Assignment 2: Information Needs of Various Components of the Criminal Justice System
Prison overcrowding is a major issue in virtually every state and in many municipalities. This is a noted problem nationwide. The reasons are that judges are sentencing more offenders to jails and prisons. State and federal sentencing guidelines have prescribed specific sentencing ranges for various types off offenders and offenses committed. Inmate populations are increasing due to the number of repeat offenders returning to our jails and prison systems. It is a documented fact that at the local, state, and federal levels, prison and jail populations are at an all-time high. The research reported in the National Institute of Justice supports these positions and has the appropriate documentation to support these notions. While there are a great many research studies on the broad subject of prison overcrowding, making use of research findings can be a daunting task. You must consider the information needs of the various components of the criminal justice system:
Law Enforcement
Courts
Corrections
Juvenile Justice
Homeland Security
The various components of the criminal justice system really do not act independently of one another. The system is directly impacted by each component. For instance, when law enforcement arrests more individuals, the courts now have to hear and decide the cases, which impacts court dockets. Large court dockets mean that there is a backlog of cases but they are eventually heard and decided. Then, convicted offenders are given correctional sentences, ranging from probation, community service, and community corrections to jail and prison time. As a result, eventually our correctional institutions get filled up and become highly overcrowded. In essence, each criminal justice system component has a direct impact on the other parts of the system.
Tasks:
Locate at least two research articles on the topic of prison overcrowding from either the
National Institute of Justice Data Collections
or the
National Criminal Justice Reference Service Databases
. The studies do not necessarily have to agree on conclusions or recommendations.
Prepare a 3–4 page paper that includes a summary of the research articles and describes how you would present the findings of the studies for each of the five components of the criminal justice system listed above.
Be sure to support your recommendations with authoritative sources and cite all references in the APA style.
...
Juvenile Incarceration and Crime after Releasecontenidos-ort
Evidence from a Harsher Law. Coautores: Néstor Gandelman (Universidad ORT Uruguay) e Ignacio Munyo (Universidad de Montevideo)
La presentación del Dr. Néstor Gandelman se realizó en la XXI Jornadas de Economía del Banco Central del Uruguay el 19 de agosto del 2016. En el estudio se propone una estimación basada en un quasi-experimento natural producido por la ley 19.055.
Se encuentra que el incremento en el tiempo de reclusión de menores infractores está asociado a una menor reincidencia criminal post liberalización.
DQ question Sped Are there any special considerations in the des.docxelinoraudley582231
DQ question Sped
Are there any special considerations in the design of an IEP for a student with multiple disabilities compared to an IEP for a student with one disability in math and English language arts that are supported by research-based instructional strategies? How do you keep a student’s interest in curriculum while meeting their academic level needs? Explain.
Running Head: PRISON OVERCROWDING ISSUE BRIEF 1
PRISON OVERCROWDING ISSUE BRIEF 2
Note: Review the citation and quotations please and if needed add citations and quotations
PRISON OVERCROWDING
Introduction
Prison overcrowding has been a challenge in nearly all countries; moreover, it is an elusive aspect although local and global actors have worked on dealing with it for years. Since its invention in the nineteenth century, overcrowding appears even to indicate a trait was troubling the new prison (Rogan, 2012). There has been an ongoing discussion in America on how to deal with prison overcrowding, and this is evident indication that the government is expected to do much as well as the politicians in reducing prison overcrowding under court orders second pressure and widespread financial problem. However, it is certain that generally, it is easier to have over populated prisons rather than creating and implementing efficient ways to lower prison overcrowding. The arguments show that, however, also, that the prison overpopulation challenge is placed in the middle of various significant policies and crime study where connected subjects meet. The topic are concerned with criminal sentencing, prison sentences and imprisonment role in the criminal sanctions systems, the principles adopted when it comes to prisoners accommodation and offering sufficient health care and rehabilitative services, crime development, in particular crime that attracts jail sentences, the budget provided for prisons and construction of prison as well as economic limitations and finally common criminal policy determine the criminal law course and punishment in the community.
It is clear that overpopulation somehow is connected with the issues, although there lies no clear picture on how these issues correlate and under what conditions they get efficient in turning the growth pattern or decrease in prison population. Because of the complexity coming with the problem, the cross-sectional nature of the penitentiary overpopulation is challenging. Be it as an impact of operations of human rights watchdogs or court decisions which gets serious constitutionals rights violations, and prison overcrowding sometimes appears to stand out as a challenge that has remained hidden for years. On the other end, rapid fall of the jail overcrowding seems to come often as a surprise for the criminal justice regulators. The turning points patterns in the direction of prison populations indicate to some degree the level of criminal justice.
https://www.homeworksimple.com/downloads/cjus-320-midterm-answers/
For answers, click link above or link in the description
Liberty CJUS 320 Midterm Answers
Which is NOT one of the three most important reasons for effective jail classification systems?
During the 1900s, prisoners served set amounts of time in crowded prisons, with little emphasis on rehabilitation or preparation for release.
About how many more jails are there in the United States than prisons?
Which of the following is the process during which officials determine whether a juvenile case should be dismissed, handled informally, or referred to the juvenile court?
Crime is closely linked to which of the following?
I. Race
II. Poverty and drug use
III. Lack of opportunity for legitimate economic success
Which correctional era advocated an environment that emphasized reformation, education, and vocational programs, and focused offenders' attention on the future?
Which of the following sentencing options authorized in state penal codes requires an offender to pay a fine or do community service in exchange for a waiver on jail time?
During the 1950s, the rehabilitation of offenders replaced punishment as the penal system's primary objective.
On which model is shock probation based?
Running head ASSIGNMENT 4 DATA COLLECTION .docxhealdkathaleen
Running head: ASSIGNMENT 4: DATA COLLECTION 1
ASSIGNMENT 4: DATA COLLECTION 3
Assignment 4: Data Collection
CRJ 499: Undergraduate Capstone in Criminal Justice
August 11, 2019
Assignment 4: Data Collection
Overcrowding in prisons or correction centers is one of the problems that have attracted the attention of many researchers. Several researchers have tried to explore this particular issue in detail. This paper, therefore, seeks to analyze the existing data concerning this specific issue to be able to review the problem after collecting reliable data.
The essential data that will aid my research is secondary data. I have already collected several secondary data. These data sources include charts and statistics. The statistics show that there have been increased cases of overcrowding in many prisons and correctional centers in the US. These data and statistics indicate the large estimated number of prisoners and offenders being held in US prisons over the past few years. The reports from various agencies such as the Bureau of Justice Statistics also concur with these findings. This indeed indicates that there is a problem of overcrowding in most prisons and correctional centers in the US.
The data sources, which include charts and statistics, are relevant to the problem in that they show the extent of overcrowding in the prisons and correctional centers. These data also show the negative impacts of overcrowding on inmates. The statistics are also relevant in that they show the trend of increase in the number of inmates being held in prison over the past few years.
Statistics indicate that the US has an approximate prison population of 2.1 million. This is according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics. This equates to approximately 481 people who are incarcerated per 99,000 of the population. The problem of overcrowding has become a serious issue in many U.S. prisons. Over 17 states reported that they were operating at over 100 percent capacity at the end of 2013 and 2014.
The data below indicates that the US is ranked number 113th in the world in terms of overcrowding in the prisons in the year 2018. The data also indicates that most of the US prisons were operating at an average capacity of 103.9%. This is according to statistics from Forbes.
The following charts are also useful in my research:
References
Gabriel, A. (2018). Nigeria and United States Prisons: A comparative Analysis of Mass Overcrowding. J Foren Psy, 3(129), 2.
Robinson, M. (2018). A Case Study of Overcrowding in a County Jail in the Southeast United States (Doctoral dissertation, Walden University).
Running head: ASSIGNMENT 3: TECHNOLOGY INFLUENCES 1
ASSIGNMENT 3: TECHNOLOGY INFLUENCES 2
Assignment 3: Technology Influences
CRJ 499: Undergraduate Capstone in Criminal Justice
August 03, 201 ...
Assignment 2 Information Needs of Various Components of the Crimina.docxkarenahmanny4c
Assignment 2: Information Needs of Various Components of the Criminal Justice System
Prison overcrowding is a major issue in virtually every state and in many municipalities. This is a noted problem nationwide. The reasons are that judges are sentencing more offenders to jails and prisons. State and federal sentencing guidelines have prescribed specific sentencing ranges for various types off offenders and offenses committed. Inmate populations are increasing due to the number of repeat offenders returning to our jails and prison systems. It is a documented fact that at the local, state, and federal levels, prison and jail populations are at an all-time high. The research reported in the National Institute of Justice supports these positions and has the appropriate documentation to support these notions. While there are a great many research studies on the broad subject of prison overcrowding, making use of research findings can be a daunting task. You must consider the information needs of the various components of the criminal justice system:
Law Enforcement
Courts
Corrections
Juvenile Justice
Homeland Security
The various components of the criminal justice system really do not act independently of one another. The system is directly impacted by each component. For instance, when law enforcement arrests more individuals, the courts now have to hear and decide the cases, which impacts court dockets. Large court dockets mean that there is a backlog of cases but they are eventually heard and decided. Then, convicted offenders are given correctional sentences, ranging from probation, community service, and community corrections to jail and prison time. As a result, eventually our correctional institutions get filled up and become highly overcrowded. In essence, each criminal justice system component has a direct impact on the other parts of the system.
Tasks:
Locate at least two research articles on the topic of prison overcrowding from either the
National Institute of Justice Data Collections
or the
National Criminal Justice Reference Service Databases
. The studies do not necessarily have to agree on conclusions or recommendations.
Prepare a 3–4 page paper that includes a summary of the research articles and describes how you would present the findings of the studies for each of the five components of the criminal justice system listed above.
Be sure to support your recommendations with authoritative sources and cite all references in the APA style.
Submission Details:
Save the paper as M4_A2_Lastname_Firstname.doc.
By
Wednesday, July 27, 2016
, submit your report to the
M4: Assignment 2 Dropbox
.
.
Overview and analysis on the economics model of crime by Becker (1968). Including a case study on the Three Strikes Law in California, USA, using differences in differences methodology
Authors: Martin Foureaux Koppensteinery, Jesse Mathesonz, and Réka Plugor
This working paper will be/have been presented at SITE brown bag seminar 2020-11-03. Martin Foureaux Koppensteinery have given SITE the permission to upload and share the working paper on our website and social media channels.
Understanding the Challenges of Street ChildrenSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
Russian anarchist and anti-war movement in the third year of full-scale warAntti Rautiainen
Anarchist group ANA Regensburg hosted my online-presentation on 16th of May 2024, in which I discussed tactics of anti-war activism in Russia, and reasons why the anti-war movement has not been able to make an impact to change the course of events yet. Cases of anarchists repressed for anti-war activities are presented, as well as strategies of support for political prisoners, and modest successes in supporting their struggles.
Thumbnail picture is by MediaZona, you may read their report on anti-war arson attacks in Russia here: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/13/burn-map
Links:
Autonomous Action
http://Avtonom.org
Anarchist Black Cross Moscow
http://Avtonom.org/abc
Solidarity Zone
https://t.me/solidarity_zone
Memorial
https://memopzk.org/, https://t.me/pzk_memorial
OVD-Info
https://en.ovdinfo.org/antiwar-ovd-info-guide
RosUznik
https://rosuznik.org/
Uznik Online
http://uznikonline.tilda.ws/
Russian Reader
https://therussianreader.com/
ABC Irkutsk
https://abc38.noblogs.org/
Send mail to prisoners from abroad:
http://Prisonmail.online
YouTube: https://youtu.be/c5nSOdU48O8
Spotify: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/libertarianlifecoach/episodes/Russian-anarchist-and-anti-war-movement-in-the-third-year-of-full-scale-war-e2k8ai4
This session provides a comprehensive overview of the latest updates to the Uniform Administrative Requirements, Cost Principles, and Audit Requirements for Federal Awards (commonly known as the Uniform Guidance) outlined in the 2 CFR 200.
With a focus on the 2024 revisions issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), participants will gain insight into the key changes affecting federal grant recipients. The session will delve into critical regulatory updates, providing attendees with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate and comply with the evolving landscape of federal grant management.
Learning Objectives:
- Understand the rationale behind the 2024 updates to the Uniform Guidance outlined in 2 CFR 200, and their implications for federal grant recipients.
- Identify the key changes and revisions introduced by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the 2024 edition of 2 CFR 200.
- Gain proficiency in applying the updated regulations to ensure compliance with federal grant requirements and avoid potential audit findings.
- Develop strategies for effectively implementing the new guidelines within the grant management processes of their respective organizations, fostering efficiency and accountability in federal grant administration.
Many ways to support street children.pptxSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
What is the point of small housing associations.pptxPaul Smith
Given the small scale of housing associations and their relative high cost per home what is the point of them and how do we justify their continued existance
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
A process server is a authorized person for delivering legal documents, such as summons, complaints, subpoenas, and other court papers, to peoples involved in legal proceedings.
ZGB - The Role of Generative AI in Government transformation.pdfSaeed Al Dhaheri
This keynote was presented during the the 7th edition of the UAE Hackathon 2024. It highlights the role of AI and Generative AI in addressing government transformation to achieve zero government bureaucracy
1. 1
SUBMISSION BY CREST ADVISORY TO THE JUSTICE SELECT COMMITTEE
‘PRISON POPULATION 2022: PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE
A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. We have undertaken an analysis of the historical determinants of the rise in the prison
population examining who is in custody, future projections and the main offences they
are in custody for. This analysis reveals some important insights about the make-up of
the prison population. Our submission draws on findings from this analysis and Crest’s
wider work on policing and criminal justice.
a. The prison population has continued to rise despite reductions in the
volume of people coming before the courts over the past 10 years. We
assess that a principal cause of this has been sentence length inflation.
However, this has not occurred evenly across the various offence categories and
has been focused on specific offence types, specifically sexual offences, robbery
and criminal damage which includes arson; there does not appear to have been a
general ‘trickle-down’ effect on other offence types inducing up-tariffing;
b. Violence offences - comprise the largest category of those who are in custody;
whilst sentence inflation for this group is negligible overall, there is a distributional
effect, with inflation having occurred for more serious offences and deflation at the
less serious end;
c. The mix of offenders receiving custodial sentences is now more “concentrated”,
comprising offenders with a longer history of repeat offending. This is particularly
the case for those receiving short sentences (less than 12 months). It may be due
to a more focussed approach by the police on higher harm or repeat crime,
against the background of pressure on police budgets and changing crime
patterns.
d. The proportion of first time offenders receiving a custodial sentence has
remained broadly steady over the past decade;
e. The remand population is comprised of offenders facing charges for violent,
drugs and theft offences;
2. The Criminal Justice System as a whole is experiencing a change in those within it, with
a move towards more serious offences and more prolific offenders. This is reflected in
the current composition of the prison population serving longer sentences for serious
offences and more extensive recidivist backgrounds. Whilst it does appear that custody
is being used more proportionately, the system is also continuing to send a large
proportion of people to prison for short periods, a majority of whom will reoffend within
two years of being released. This is a waste of resources which should be spent looking
at alternatives to both custody and to boosting non-custodial sentencing that also
addresses non-criminogenic needs such as mental health, substance misuse services
and housing.
2. 2
B. INTRODUCTION
3. Crest Advisory are pleased to be able to provide a submission to the Justice Select
Committee’s inquiry into the Prison Population. We are a team of communications
specialists, policymakers, analysts and practitioners dedicated to a single goal: building
a safer and more secure society. In recent years, we have worked with central
government, combined authorities and elected Mayors, Police and Crime
Commissioners, Community Rehabilitation Companies as well as various NGOs and
private companies. Over recent months we’ve published reports on justice devolution, an
analysis of changes in the use of community sentences and the effectiveness of the
criminal justice system.
4. Crest have recently undertaken a project funded by Hadley Trust which analyses the
historical determinants of the composition and size of the prison population in England
and Wales. The report of this work was prepared by Justice Episteme using a variety of
data analysis methods to examine statistics published by the Ministry of Justice, and
simulation to explore a number of alternative sentencing scenarios. Much of our
submission is drawn from that report.
5. We would be delighted to share the detail of our analysis should the Committee be
interested in further information and analysis which we undertook for this project.
C. CONTEXT
6. The significant changes in the prison population should be seen in the context of what is
happening in the rest of the criminal justice system, changing patterns of crime and the
impact of austerity. The last decade has seen the number of offenders being formally
dealt with by the criminal justice system fall by over a quarter (28%) and fewer offenders
are coming in front of the courts. However, whilst there are fewer offenders being
charged and sentenced, the severity and frequency of their offending is getting
worse.
7. Partly this is a reflection of changing crime. Police recorded statistics show significant
rises in violent offences and sexual offences - some of which reflects better recording
and reporting, but some of which (e.g. knife crime) which reflects an underlying change
in crime. As a result, police workloads are rising at a time when police officer numbers
are at their lowest for 30 years, and complex, high-harm crimes (which are more costly
to investigate and solve) make up a higher proportion of the workload.
8. It may also reflect changing behaviours. For example, recent years have shown a large
decline in the use of out of court disposals (OOCD) by the police with the proportion of
offenders who end up with a caution falling from 30% to 13% in the last 10 years. Today
more than half of first time offenders end up in court rather than receive a caution,
compared to one in five 10 years ago.
3. 3
9. The graph below illustrates the changes in sentencing outcomes for offenders over the
last 10 years. It shows significant falls in the numbers receiving non-custodial sanctions
and modest reductions in the numbers going to custody. Conversely, there has been a
big increase in the use of suspended sentences. The fall in the use of community
sentences (their use has almost halved since 2011/2) has occurred despite an increase
in alternative sentencing options (for example, alcohol monitoring requirements, banning
orders) and conditional discharges and other disposals are down significantly.
10. The overall picture suggests the police (and therefore the CJS) are focussing on more
serious cases. It is not clear how much of this shift is due to austerity, changing
expectations about who should be brought to justice and/ or genuine shifts in crime
patterns, and may indeed reflect a combination of these.
D. THE PRISON POPULATION
11. Despite falling crime and fewer offenders coming to court, the prison population has
remained broadly steady in the past five years at around 86,000 (albeit with some
proportionately small rises whose impact has been challenging for a system operating at
critical capacity). There is general consensus that a key driver has been longer
sentences. However, our analysis suggests a more nuanced picture, with some policy
4. 4
changes having driven up the prison population, but others having pushed the
population downwards.
12. The introduction of the Criminal Justice Act 2003 and subsequent changes to sentencing
practice have led to longer sentences, particularly for high-harm crimes. IPP sentences
have also increased the prison population, keeping in prison for indefinite periods those
who would otherwise have served determinate sentences. Suspended custodial
sentences, on the other hand, which were also introduced by the 2003 Act, look like they
have reduced pressure on prisons (though they may also have drawn in offenders who
may otherwise have received community sentences).
13. More recently, the introduction of post-licence supervision for short sentence prisoners in
2014 has increased the size of the pool of those under supervision on licence, from
which recalls to prison are drawn.
14. The impact of these changes has been that those on long sentences represent the
largest groups in prison:
● 43% of male offenders are serving sentences of over four years.
● 14% of prisoners are on indeterminate sentences;
● Around 25% are serving sentences of 12 months to 4 years
● Around 8% are serving short sentences of less than 12 months.
● 9% are offenders recalled from supervision in the community.
Population by Offence category
15. As the chart below sets out, violent offenders make up the largest group of male
prisoners at around 28%. This has risen from around 11,000 to c. 19,000 over the
period 2002 to 2010 and has remained broadly steady since then. The number of sexual
offenders in custody has also grown very substantially from around 5000 in 2002 to
approximately 12,000 in 2015.
5. 5
Population of persistent offenders
16. Persistent offenders make up a very large proportion of almost all male sentence
categories. This is particularly true for short custodial sentences and for those recalled
back to prison. For those on sentences of less than six months, 61% have more than 15
convictions and for those recalled, the figure is 52%. Unsurprisingly, repeat offenders
are much more likely to be recalled to prison.
17. First time offenders generally make a small contribution to the total prison population,
although this does increase for the longer length sentences - reflecting that a proportion
of serious offences are committed by those without a criminal history.
6. 6
18. While those on short term sentences account for only 8% of the prison population at any
one time, the total number of offenders passing through the system for short periods
(which has been in the region of 60,000 per year until more recently when it fell to
around 51,000) creates a disproportionate pressure on prisons (the costs of managing
‘churn’ extend beyond the individual prisoners themselves).
19. The high levels of persistent offenders being recycled through custody points to a lack of
effective alternatives to incarceration. This may be driven, in part, by the lack of
confidence in community sentences reported in research previously carried out by Crest.
It may also be a reflection on the probation system’s performance, and the challenges
associated with securing housing, jobs, skills and social support that are known to drive
down reoffending.
20. There is some evidence that sentencers are making more use of suspended sentences.
However, in part recipients will have been drawn from those previously given community
sentences. There is limited evidence on the effectiveness of suspended sentences at
this stage.
21. Given what we know about the lack of effectiveness in rehabilitating those on short
custodial sentences, these data suggest the need to think about a new approach to
managing life-course persistent prolific offenders. Crest will be publishing a new policy
report on this in the next few months.
7. 7
Population by Age
22. Overall, the male prison population in 2017 is much older than that in 2002. The
chart below shows that the 30-39 age band comprises the largest component of those
sentenced to custody. While this has remained broadly stable between 2002 and 2017,
the proportion of those aged 40+ has increased while those younger than 30 has
declined.
23. The change in profile of offenders to an older cohort raises questions about current
provision in prisons (including the kind of skills and education training available) as well
as the range of social care and health provision for which most would agree the current
prison estate is not suited. Those in prison with long term or previous addictions, are
also likely to have a complex health profile with substantial comorbidity.
The impact of increasing sentence lengths
24. Our assessment is that increasing sentence lengths have had a major impact on the size
and composition of the prison population. However, this has largely occurred at the more
serious end of offending, rather than as a result of general up-tariffing across the board.
25. Over the period 2006 to 2016, for male offenders, the largest increases in the average
prison sentence length, show that:
● sexual offences increased from 42 months to 62 months (+50%);
● robbery, increased from 33 months to 45 months (+ 30%),
● criminal damage and arson, increased from 12 months to 27 months (+100%)
8. 8
26. Increases in sentence length in other offence types have been generally of a lesser
scale. For example, sentences for violent offences have not increased by a substantial
margin. There is a "tipping point" at 48 months where sentences above that have
become longer in 2016 relative to 2006, and the reverse for shorter sentences. This
suggests that more serious offences are treated more punitively and conversely less
serious offences receive lighter prison sentences.
27. These changes have obviously contributed significantly to the prison population and
have not been offset by the decline in numbers coming before the courts. In particular
the number of those coming into prison on first offence has been broadly the same, at
around 7500 per year
28. There is a significant challenge here for policymakers: the concentration of offenders
with long criminal histories who have been convicted of serious offences is in keeping
with the notion that prison is reserved for the most serious and or prolific offenders,
leaving little scope for any more general reduction of the number before the courts to
have an impact. Moreover, it is unlikely to be politically palatable to argue for a reduction
in sentence lengths for those committing sexual and violent offences, as the recent case
of John Worboys has shown.
29. In terms of reversing the increase in the prison population, our view is that the best hope
lies in stemming this flow at an earlier point with greater investment in prevention/ early
intervention.
9. 9
Female offenders
30. For females serving prison sentences there has been some change in the profile of
prisoners. The largest group switched from drugs offences to those whose principal
offence has been violent. That apart, the number of female prisoners has not been
significantly impacted by sentencing inflation or the introduction of the IPP. It is,
however, notable that a higher proportion of female offenders in custody are sentenced
to short custodial sentences (less than 12 months) than men (around double),
suggesting scope for greater diversion and alternatives to custody.
Alternative sentencing
31. Using different simulation scenarios, we were able to model the size of the prison
population making different assumptions about the length of sentences over the past 15
years, including the impact of the IPP sentence.
32. Our estimates show that sentence length inflation (as a result of the 2003 Criminal
Justice Act) accounts for around 12,500 male prisoners; and the introduction of IPP
sentences, on its own, has added around 4,000 to the prison population. Combining
these two changes (they do not simply add up due to the reoffending feedbacks in the
system, as well the fact that those receiving an IPP sentence would otherwise have got
a determinate sentence) would account for around 15,000 male offenders in prison.
33. We have also looked at the potential effect of suspended sentences on the prison
system. We estimate, again using simulation, that the prison population would have
been 10,000 higher for males than current levels without the suspended sentence
provisions of the Criminal Justice Act 2003 (all other factors remaining the same).
E. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
34. The analysis we have undertaken suggests that the composition of the prison population
has become more serious and prolific. In some respects then, custody is being used
appropriately - reserved either for those who pose a danger to the public, including those
convicted of violent and sexual offences, or whose offending history warrants a custodial
sentence.
35. However, the system continues to send a large proportion of people to prison for short
sentences. In 2016, 51,300 males and 5600 females were sentenced to such sentences.
There is therefore an urgent need to examine alternatives for this group to keep as many
as possible out of custody. Equally important is the need for better provision of the kinds
of non-criminogenic services (drug treatment, housing, education, social and mental
health support) that are known to help desistance.
10. 10
36. In order to reduce the pressure on our prisons, serious efforts need to be made to tackle
the underlying causes of violence, most of which require long-term solutions that lie
outside of the criminal justice system. Parenting interventions targeted at the most
chaotic families; a step-change in the quality of support to children in care; better access
to drug treatment; and continuity of education provision between prison and in the
community.
37. The system itself remains both siloed and over centralised and therefore unable to
respond effectively to the changing needs and circumstances of those in the criminal
justice system and their victims.
38. We recommend:
● an urgent review of alternatives to custody for short sentenced offenders;
● devolution of custody budgets attached to short sentenced offenders to elected
Mayors and PCCs, creating a financial incentive for local areas to fund better
diversion and alternatives to custody;
● greater investment in early intervention to stem the flow of those vulnerable to
criminal behaviour and future offending. This should include a more systematic
approach to working with those at risk such as the children of offenders where
the evidence shows them to be unequivocally at risk. Whole family approaches,
including Troubled Families and related programmes provide local infrastructure
and joint working arrangements that could facilitate targeting of services on this
group;
● a review of the role of the probation and the police in managing the most prolific
offenders;
● investing in the staffing, skills and infrastructure necessary for a changing prison
population. This should include an assessment of the health and social care
needs of a larger group of older prisoners, how to safely accommodate more
violent offenders, along with reforms to ensure better continuity between
provision in custody and the community.
11. 11
I - APPENDIX - Sources
● Analysis of the determinants of the composition and size of the prison population in
England and Wales: Savas Hadjipavlou (Crest Advisory forthcoming)
● The case for Justice Devolution: Harvey Redgrave (GovernUp 2016) -
http://crestadvisory.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/governup-harvey-redgrave-justice-
devolution-report.pdf
● Community Sentences: Where did it all go wrong? (Crest Advisory 2017)
http://crestadvisory.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/community-sentences-report-
where-did-it-all-go-wrong.pdf
● All on the same side: rethinking how we measure performance in the CJS (Crest
Advisory 2017) http://crestadvisory.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/All-on-the-same-
side-rethinking-how-we-measure-performance-in-the-cjs.pdf