3. Overall volume crime has continued to fall, but this requires some hefty caveats!
3
Crime has continued its downward trend
since its peak in 1995 ...
Crime Survey for England and Wales, 1981-2017
Source: MoJ, Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW)
Three important caveats
- Adding 'fraud and computer misuse' to the
crime survey shows crime has fallen much
less dramatically than previously thought
- 'Volume' is not the same as 'harm'- there is
evidence that the biggest falls have been
among the least harmful offences
- The pattern illustrated by the crime survey is
not repeated for police recorded crime,
which has been increasing since 2014.
There are some offences (e.g. knife crime,
homicide) which are better captured by
police recording than by the survey
4. ...but there has been a worrying increase in serious violence
4
Indexed long-term trends in Police recorded homicide,
firearms offences and knife crime offences, 1998-2017
Top 5 areas with highest volumes of police recorded offences involving
knives or sharp instruments (excluding London), 2013-2018
Source: ONS, Homicide figures (excluding figures for Hillsborough, Manchester Arena and London bombings
Serious violence offences are rising though rates are
below the peak of the early 2000s
Knife crime is continuing to rise across the country - and
not just in London
6. 1. There is evidence that shifts in drugs markets, particularly the rising purity/
availability of cocaine, is a driver of the recent spike in serious violence
6
Has a deprioritisation of drug-related offences contributed to the rise in serious violence by,
for example, reducing the certainty of punishment for drug dealing gang members?
Other shifts in the drugs market also likely to
have impacted:
- New psychoactive substances e.g.
Spice, Monkey Dust
- Rise in the use and purity of crack
cocaine
- ‘County Lines’ drug dealing operations
Source: MoJ, CJS statistics quarterly
*Serious violence is a collective figure of homicide, robbery, firearm and knife related offences
National trends in police recorded serious violence offences* and drug offences
7. 2. Arguably, the criminal justice system has become less effective at deterring
would-be offenders (partly as a result of funding pressures)
7
There is good evidence that enforcement can play a vital role in tackling these offences.
However, in recent years the certainty of punishment has fallen
Police recorded robberies: trends in offences and charges/ summons, England and Wales 2006-2017
Source: Home Office, Serious Violence Strategy, April 2018
8. 3. There has been a rise in the numbers of people vulnerable to exploitation
8
With serious violence there has been a shift towards younger offending - the number of episodes
involving under-18s has increased by 51%, the equivalent increase for over-18 was 10%
There has been an increase in the number
of vulnerable individuals. Children in care,
exclusions from school and homelessness
have all risen since 2014.
These groups are at a higher risk of being
exploited for offences such as drug market
related violence.
Source: Department for Education, Permanent and fixed-period exclusions in England: 2016 to 2017
Permanent school exclusions in England by type of school (2013-2017)
10. 10
There are significant pressures facing the justice system
The nature of offending has changed: as the cohort
shrinks it is becoming more prolific and complex
Total offenders cautioned or sentenced for indictable and triable either way
offences, and proportion with one or more previous caution/conviction 2006-16
The Ministry of Justice has been at the
sharp end of austerity
NOMS departmental expenditure outturn 2009/10-2016/17
and estimated to 2019/20 (end of the parliament)*
*Figures based on Resource DEL, from MoJ Annual Accounts 2013/14 and 2016/17;
Figures 2017-2020 estimate and based on 15% announced reduction
11. 11
In particular, short custodial sentences have put pressure on our prisons, which are
overcrowded and increasingly dangerous, both for prisoners and for staff
11
The prison population has grown hugely - many are
now close to holding more than is operationally safe
Sources: MoJ, Offender Management statistics quarterly; Prison population annual release
Prison population England and Wales, 1900-2017
Two thirds of custodial sentences last less than 12
months - insufficient time to effectively rehabilitate
Custodial sentences handed out in 2016 by sentence length
Source: MoJ, CJS statistics quarterly
13. Crime is back on the agenda
13
Public concern about crime has grown in recent years, with 18% of the public citing it as a big issue for the country
- though it is still well below the issues of Brexit and the NHS
The Ipsos MORI monthly index, ten year trends (1997-2018)
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index, September 2018
The Ipsos MORI issues index, April 2018
14. How are politicians responding?
14
● The 2017 Conservative manifesto offered
low key steps such as a new victims’ law, a
definition of domestic violence in law and
further devolution to Police and Crime
Commissioners
● The headline commitment from the Labour
manifesto was to recruit 10,000 more
police officers and to nationalise prisons/
probation
● London is focused on knife crime, moving towards
a ‘Public Health Approach’
● Championing a campaign against domestic abuse,
Northumbria has become the first force to
introduce training on how to spot coercive and
controlling behaviour
● Dorset’s PCC has spearhead a campaign to
improve crisis care for people with mental health
needs across England
● Manchester and now Sussex have both pioneered
a ‘Whole Systems Approach’ for women offenders
Nationally, with focus elsewhere, there is a
vacuum of 'big ideas' on crime and justice ...
Locally, there is a good deal of innovation, being
driven by PCCs and Mayors
