Development of a family of products that satisfies different sectors of the market introduces significant challenges to today’s manufacturing industries – from development time to aftermarket services. A product family with a common platform paradigm offers a powerful solution to these daunting challenges. The Comprehensive Product Platform Planning (CP3) framework formulates a flexible product family model that (i) seeks to eliminate traditional boundaries between modular and scalable families, (ii) allows the formation of sub-families of products, and (iii) yield the optimal depth and number of platforms. In this paper, the CP3 framework introduces a solution strategy that obviates common assumptions; namely (i) the identification of platform/non-platform design variables and the determination of variable values are separate processes, and (ii) the cost reduction of creating product platforms is independent of the total number of each product manufactured. A new Cost Decay Function (CDF) is developed to approximate the reduction in cost with increasing commonalities among products, for a specified capacity of production. The Mixed Integer Non-Liner Programming (MINLP) problem, presented by the CP3 model, is solved using a novel Platform Segregating Mapping Function (PSMF). The proposed CP3 framework is implemented on a family of universal electric motors.
This work was presented at 51st AIAA/SDM conference, Apr 14, 2010 in Orlando. The work presented in this paper was performed in collaboration with Prof. Achille Messac and Dr. Ritesh Khire.
This work was presented at 51st AIAA/SDM conference, Apr 14, 2010 in Orlando. The work presented in this paper was performed in collaboration with Prof. Achille Messac and Dr. Ritesh Khire.
This presentation gives an insight in basic infrared technology (over the entire infrared wavelength range) and infrared applications.
You can find a recording of the presentation at https://imec.csod.com/default.aspx?p=imec&c=Guest&dlink=%2fDeepLink%2fProcessRedirect.aspx%3fmodule%3dlodetails%26lo%3da02ef314-45e0-4518-9f32-50a63a9ed2f0
The Comprehensive Product Platform Planning (CP3) framework presents a flexible mathematical model of the platform planning process, which allows (i) the formation of sub-families of products, and (ii) the simultaneous identification and quantification of plat- form/scaling design variables. The CP3 model is founded on a generalized commonality matrix that represents the product platform plan, and yields a mixed binary-integer non- linear programming problem. In this paper, we develop a methodology to reduce the high dimensional binary integer problem to a more tractable integer problem, where the com- monality matrix is represented by a set of integer variables. Subsequently, we determine the feasible set of values for the integer variables in the case of families with 3 − 7 kinds of products. The cardinality of the feasible set is found to be orders of magnitude smaller than the total number of unique combinations of the commonality variables. In addition, we also present the development of a generalized approach to Mixed-Discrete Non-Linear Optimization (MDNLO) that can be implemented through standard non-gradient based op- timization algorithms. This MDNLO technique is expected to provide a robust and compu- tationally inexpensive optimization framework for the reduced CP3 model. The generalized approach to MDNLO uses continuous optimization as the primary search strategy, how- ever, evaluates the system model only at the feasible locations in the discrete variable space.
A product family with a common platform paradigm can increase the flexibility and responsiveness of the product- manufacturing process and help take away market share from competitors that develop one product at a time. The recently developed Comprehensive Product Platform Planning (CP3 ) method allows (i) the formation of sub-families of products, and (ii) the simultaneous identification and quantification of platform/scaling design variables. The CP3 model is founded on a generalized commonality matrix representation of the product-platform-plan. In this paper, a new commonality index is developed and introduced in CP3 to simultaneously account for the degree of inter-product commonalities and for the overlap between groups of products sharing different platform variables. To maximize both the performance of the product family and the new commonality measure, we develop and apply an advanced mixed-discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (MDPSO) algorithm. In the MDPSO algo- rithm, the discrete variables are updated using a deterministic nearest-feasible-vertex criterion after each iteration of the conventional PSO. Such an approach is expected to avoid the undesirable discrepancy in the rate of evolution of discrete and continuous variables. To prevent a premature stagnation of solutions (likely in conventional PSO), while solving the high dimensional MINLP problem presented by CP3, we introduce a new adaptive diversity-preservation technique. This technique first characterizes the population diversity and then applies a stochastic update of the discrete variables based on the estimated diversity measure. The potential of the new CP3 optimization methodology is illustrated through its application to design a family of universal electric motors. The optimized platform plans provide helpful insights into the importance of accounting for the overlap between different product platforms, when quantifying the effective commonality in the product family.
This presentation gives an insight in basic infrared technology (over the entire infrared wavelength range) and infrared applications.
You can find a recording of the presentation at https://imec.csod.com/default.aspx?p=imec&c=Guest&dlink=%2fDeepLink%2fProcessRedirect.aspx%3fmodule%3dlodetails%26lo%3da02ef314-45e0-4518-9f32-50a63a9ed2f0
The Comprehensive Product Platform Planning (CP3) framework presents a flexible mathematical model of the platform planning process, which allows (i) the formation of sub-families of products, and (ii) the simultaneous identification and quantification of plat- form/scaling design variables. The CP3 model is founded on a generalized commonality matrix that represents the product platform plan, and yields a mixed binary-integer non- linear programming problem. In this paper, we develop a methodology to reduce the high dimensional binary integer problem to a more tractable integer problem, where the com- monality matrix is represented by a set of integer variables. Subsequently, we determine the feasible set of values for the integer variables in the case of families with 3 − 7 kinds of products. The cardinality of the feasible set is found to be orders of magnitude smaller than the total number of unique combinations of the commonality variables. In addition, we also present the development of a generalized approach to Mixed-Discrete Non-Linear Optimization (MDNLO) that can be implemented through standard non-gradient based op- timization algorithms. This MDNLO technique is expected to provide a robust and compu- tationally inexpensive optimization framework for the reduced CP3 model. The generalized approach to MDNLO uses continuous optimization as the primary search strategy, how- ever, evaluates the system model only at the feasible locations in the discrete variable space.
A product family with a common platform paradigm can increase the flexibility and responsiveness of the product- manufacturing process and help take away market share from competitors that develop one product at a time. The recently developed Comprehensive Product Platform Planning (CP3 ) method allows (i) the formation of sub-families of products, and (ii) the simultaneous identification and quantification of platform/scaling design variables. The CP3 model is founded on a generalized commonality matrix representation of the product-platform-plan. In this paper, a new commonality index is developed and introduced in CP3 to simultaneously account for the degree of inter-product commonalities and for the overlap between groups of products sharing different platform variables. To maximize both the performance of the product family and the new commonality measure, we develop and apply an advanced mixed-discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (MDPSO) algorithm. In the MDPSO algo- rithm, the discrete variables are updated using a deterministic nearest-feasible-vertex criterion after each iteration of the conventional PSO. Such an approach is expected to avoid the undesirable discrepancy in the rate of evolution of discrete and continuous variables. To prevent a premature stagnation of solutions (likely in conventional PSO), while solving the high dimensional MINLP problem presented by CP3, we introduce a new adaptive diversity-preservation technique. This technique first characterizes the population diversity and then applies a stochastic update of the discrete variables based on the estimated diversity measure. The potential of the new CP3 optimization methodology is illustrated through its application to design a family of universal electric motors. The optimized platform plans provide helpful insights into the importance of accounting for the overlap between different product platforms, when quantifying the effective commonality in the product family.
AN IMPROVED DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM BASED ON THE BDM (BIT DECISION MAKING) ME...ijmpict
Based on the BDM (Bit Decision Making) method, the present work presents two contributions: first, the
illustration of the use of the technique known as SOP (Sum Of Products) in order to systematize the
process to obtain the correlation function for sub-system’s mathematical modelling, and second,the provision of capacity to manage a greater than binary but a finite - discrete set of possible subjective qualifications of suppliers at any criterion.
Presentation of the paper "Verification of Relational Data-Centric Dynamic Systems with External Services" at the 32nd ACM SIGACT SIGMOD SIGART Symposium on Principles of Database Systems (PODS 2013)
The analysis of complex system behavior often demands expensive experiments or computational simulations. Surrogates modeling techniques are often used to provide a tractable and inexpensive approximation of such complex system behavior. Owing to the lack of knowledge regarding the suitability of particular surrogate modeling techniques, model selection approach can be helpful to choose the best surrogate technique. Popular model selection approaches include: (i) split sample, (ii) cross-validation, (iii) bootstrapping, and (iv) Akaike's information criterion (AIC) (Queipo et al. 2005; Bozdogan et al. 2000). However, the effectiveness of these model selection methods is limited by the lack of accurate measures of local and global errors in surrogates.
This paper develops a novel and model-independent concept to quantify the local/global reliability of surrogates, to assist in model selection (in surrogate applications). This method is called the Generalized-Regional Error Estimation of Surrogate (G-REES). In this method, intermediate surrogates are iteratively constructed over heuristic subsets of the available sample points (i.e., intermediate training points), and tested over the remaining available sample points (i.e., intermediate test points). The fraction of sample points used as intermediate training points is fixed at each iteration, with the total number of iterations being pre-specified. The estimated median and maximum relative errors for the heuristic subsets at each iteration are used to fit a distribution of the median and maximum error, respectively. The statistical mode of the median and the maximum error distributions are then determined. These mode values are then represented as functions of the density of training points (at the corresponding iteration). Regression methods, called Variation of Error with Sample Density (VESD), are used for this purpose. The VESD models are then used to predict the expected median and maximum errors, when all the sample points are used as training points.
The effectiveness of the proposed model selection criterion is explored to find the best surrogate between candidates including: (i) Kriging, (ii) Radial Basis Functions (RBF), (iii) Extended Radial Basis Functions (ERBF), and (iv) Quadratic Response Surface (QRS), for standard test functions and a wind farm capacity factor function. The results will be compared with the relative accuracy of the surrogates evaluated on additional test points, and also with the prediction sum of square (PRESS) error given by leave-one-out cross-validation.
The application of G-REES to a standard test problem with two design variables (Branin-hoo function) show that the proposed method predicts the median and the maximum value of the global error with a higher level of confidence compared to PRESS. It also shows that model selection based on G-REES method is significantly more reliable than that currently performed using error measures such as PRESS. The
Wind farm development is an extremely complex process, most often driven by three im- portant performance criteria: (i) annual energy production, (ii) lifetime costs, and (iii) net impact on surroundings. Generally, planning a commercial scale wind farm takes several years. Undesirable concept-to-installation delays are primarily attributed to the lack of an upfront understanding of how different factors collectively affect the overall performance of a wind farm. More specifically, it is necessary to understand the balance between the socio-economic, engineering, and environmental objectives at an early stage in the design process. This paper proposes a Wind Farm Tradeoff Visualization (WiFToV) framework that aims to develop first-of-its-kind generalized guidelines for the conceptual design of wind farms, especially at early stages of wind farm development. Two major performance objectives are considered in this work: (i) cost of energy (COE) and (ii) land area per MW installed (LAMI). The COE is estimated using the Wind Turbine Design Cost and Scaling Model (WTDCS) and the Annual Energy Production (AEP) model incorporated by the Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) framework. The LAMI is esti- mated using an optimal-layout based land usage model, which is treated as a post-process of the wind farm layout optimization. A Multi-Objective Mixed-Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (MO-MDPSO) algorithm is used to perform the bi-objective optimization, which simultaneously optimizes the location and types of turbines. Together with a novel Pareto translation technique, the proposed WiFToV framework allows the exploration of the trade-off between COE and LAMI, and their variations with respect to multiple values of nameplate capacity.
Effective and time-efficient decision-making in the early stages of wind farm planning can lay the foundation of a successful wind energy project. Undesirable concept-to-installation delays in wind farm development is often caused by conflicting decisions from the major parties involved (e.g., developer, investors, landowners, and local communities), which in turn can be (in a major part) attributed to the lack of an upfront understanding of the trade-offs between the technical, socio-economic, and environmental-impact aspects of the wind farm for the given site. This paper proposes a consolidated visualization platform for wind farm planning, which could facilitate informed and co-operative decision-making by the parties involved. This visualization platform offers a GUI-based land shape chart, which provides the following information: the variation of the energy production capacity and of the corresponding required optimal land shape with different land area and nameplate capacity decisions. In order to develop this chart, a bi-objective optimization problem is formulated (using the Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization framework) to max- imize the capacity factor and minimize the land usage, subject to different nameplate capacity decisions. The application of an Optimal Layout-based land usage estimate allows the wind farm layout optimization to run without pre-specifying any farm boundaries; the optimal land shape is instead determined as a post process, using convex hull and minimum bounding rectangle concept, based on the optimal arrangement of turbines. Three land shape charts are generated under three characteristic wind patterns - (i) single dominant wind direction, (ii) two opposite dominant wind directions, and (ii) two orthogonal domi- nant wind directions, all three patterns comprising the same wind speed distribution. The results indicate that the optimal land shape is highly sensitive to the variation in LAMI for small-capacity wind farms (few turbines) and to the variation in nameplate capacity for small allowed land area. For the same decided nameplate capacity and LAMI values, we observe reasonable similarity in the optimal land shapes and the maximum energy pro- duction potentials given the “single dominant direction” and the “two opposite dominant directions” wind patterns; the optimal land shapes and the maximum energy production potentials yielded by the “two orthogonal dominant directions” wind pattern is however observed to be relatively different from the other two cases.
Complex system design problems tend to be high dimen- sional and nonlinear, and also often involve multiple objectives and mixed-integer variables. Heuristic optimization algorithms have the potential to address the typical (if not most) charac- teristics of such complex problems. Among them, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm has gained significant popularity due to its maturity and fast convergence abilities. This paper seeks to translate the unique benefits of PSO from solving typical continuous single-objective optimization problems to solving multi-objective mixed-discrete problems, which is a relatively new ground for PSO application. The previously de- veloped Mixed-Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (MDPSO) algorithm, which includes an exclusive diversity preservation technique to prevent premature particle clustering, has been shown to be a powerful single-objective solver for highly con- strained MINLP problems. In this paper, we make fundamental advancements to the MDPSO algorithm, enabling it to solve challenging multi-objective problems with mixed-discrete design variables. In the velocity update equation, the explorative term is modified to point towards the non-dominated solution that is the closest to the corresponding particle (at any iteration). The fractional domain in the diversity preservation technique, which was previously defined in terms of a single global leader, is now applied to multiple global leaders in the intermediate Pareto front. The multi-objective MDPSO (MO-MDPSO) algorithm is tested using a suite of diverse benchmark problems and a disc-brake design problem. To illustrate the advantages of the new MO-MDPSO algorithm, the results are compared with those given by the popular Elitist Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II).
The performance of a wind farm is affected by several key factors that can be classified into two cate- gories: the natural factors and the design factors. Hence, the planning of a wind farm requires a clear quantitative understanding of how the balance between the concerned objectives (e.g., socia-economic, engineering, and environmental objectives) is affected by these key factors. This understanding is lacking in the state of the art in wind farm design. The wind farm capacity factor is one of the primary perfor- mance criteria of a wind energy project. For a given land (or sea area) and wind resource, the maximum capacity factor of a particular number of wind turbines can be reached by optimally adjusting the layout of turbines. However, this layout adjustment is constrained owing to the limited land resource. This paper proposes a Bi-level Multi-objective Wind Farm Optimization (BMWFO) framework for planning effective wind energy projects. Two important performance objectives considered in this paper are: (i) wind farm Capacity Factor (CF) and (ii) Land Area per MW Installed (LAMI). Turbine locations, land area, and nameplate capacity are treated as design variables in this work. In the proposed framework, the Capacity Factor - Land Area per MW Installed (CF - LAMI) trade-off is parametrically represented as a function of the nameplate capacity. Such a helpful parameterization of trade-offs is unique in the wind energy literature. The farm output is computed using the wind farm power generation model adopted from the Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) framework. The Smallest Bounding Rectangle (SBR) enclosing all turbines is used to calculate the actual land area occupied by the farm site. The wind farm layout optimization is performed in the lower level using the Mixed-Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (MDPSO), while the CF - LAMI trade-off is parameterized in the upper level. In this work, the CF - LAMI trade-off is successfully quantified by nameplate capacity in the 20 MW to 100 MW range. The Pareto curves obtained from the proposed framework provide important in- sights into the trade-offs between the two performance objectives, which can significantly streamline the decision-making process in wind farm development.
The creation of wakes, with unique turbulence charac- teristics, downstream of turbines significantly increases the complexity of the boundary layer flow within a wind farm. In conventional wind farm design, analytical wake models are generally used to compute the wake-induced power losses, with different wake models yielding significantly different estimates. In this context, the wake behavior, and subsequently the farm power generation, can be expressed as functions of a series of key factors. A quantitative understanding of the relative impact of each of these factors is paramount to the development of more reliable power generation models; such an understanding is however missing in the current state of the art in wind farm design. In this paper, we quantitatively explore how the farm power generation, estimated using four different analytical wake models, is influenced by the following key factors: (i) incoming wind speed, (ii) land configuration, and (iii) ambient turbulence. The sensitivity of the maximum farm output potential to the input factors, when using different wake models, is also analyzed. The extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (eFAST) method is used to perform the sensitivity analysis. The power generation model and the optimization strategy is adopted from the Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) framework. In the case of an array-like turbine arrangement, both the first-order and the total-order sensitivity analysis indices of the power output with respect to the incoming wind speed were found to reach a value of 99%, irrespective of the choice of wake models. However, in the case of maximum power output, significant variation (around 30%) in the indices was observed across different wake models, especially when the incoming wind speed is close to the rated speed of the turbines.
The power generation of a wind farm is significantly less than the summation of the power generated by each turbine when operating as a standalone entity. This power reduction can be attributed to the energy loss due to the wake effects − the resulting velocity deficit in the wind downstream of a turbine. In the case of wind farm design, the wake losses are generally quantified using wake models. The effectiveness of wind farm design (seeking to maximize the farm output) therefore depends on the accuracy and the reliability of the wake models. This paper compares the impact of the following four analytical wake
models on the wind farm power generation: (i) the Jensen model, (ii) the Larsen model, (iii) the Frandsen model, and (iv) the Ishihara model. The sensitivity of this impact to the Land Area per Turbine (LAT) and the incoming wind speed is also investigated. The wind farm power generation model used in this paper is adopted from the Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology. Single wake case studies show that the velocity deficit and the wake diameter estimated by the different analytical wake models can be significantly different. A maximum difference of 70% was also observed for the wind farm capacity factor values estimated using different wake models.
This paper explores the adaptive optimal design of Active Thermally Insulated (ATI) windows to significantly improve energy efficiency. The ATI window design uses ther- mostats to actively control thermoelectric (TE) units and fans to regulate the overall ther- modynamic properties of the windows. The windows are used to maintain a comfortable indoor temperature. Since weather conditions vary with different geographical locations and with time, the thermodynamic properties of the windows should adapt accordingly. The electric power supplied to the TE units and the fans are dynamically controlled so as to provide an optimal operation under varying weather conditions. Optimization of the ATI window design is a multiobjective problem. The problem minimizes both the heat trans- ferred through the window and electric power consumption. The heat transfer through the ATI windows is analyzed using FLUENT; and the optimization is performed using MAT- LAB. Since the computational expense of optimization for numerous weather conditions is excessive, the power supplies are optimized under a reasonably small number of weather conditions. Based on the optimal results obtained for these conditions, a surrogate model is developed to represent the optimal results in a wide range of weather conditions. The surrogate model is used to evaluate optimal power supplies with respect to different val- ues of outside temperature, wind speed, and intensity of solar radiation. Thermometers, anemometers, and solar radiation sensors are used to sense these weather conditions. With the inputs from the sensors, the thermostats determine the operating conditions and cal- culate the corresponding optimal power supplies using the surrogate model. Since the ATI windows are operated with optimal power supplies, high energy efficiency is achieved.
The planning of a wind farm, which minimizes the project costs and maximizes the power generation capacity, presents significant challenges to today’s wind energy industry. An optimal wind farm planning strategy that accounts for the key factors (that can be designed) influencing the net power generation offers a powerful solution to these daunting challenges. This paper explores the influences of (i) the number of turbines, (ii) the farm size, and (iii) the use of a combination of turbines with differing rotor diameters, on the optimal power generated by a wind farm. We use a recently developed method of arranging turbines in a wind farm (the Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO)) to maximize the farm efficiency. Response surface based cost models are used to estimate the cost of the wind farm as a function of the the turbine rotor diameters and number of tur- bines. Optimization is performed using a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. A robust mixed-discrete version of the PSO algorithm is implemented to appropriately account for the discrete choice of feasible rotor diameters. The use of an optimal combi- nation of turbines with differing rotor diameters was observed to significantly improve the net power generation. Exploration of the influences of (i) the number of turbines, and (ii) the farm size, on the cost per KW of power produced, provided interesting observations.
This paper compares the performances of standard surrogate models in the development of an optimal control framework. The optimal control strategy is implemented on an Active Thermoelectric (ATE) window design. The ATE window design uses thermoelectric units to actively regulate the overall thermodynamic properties of the windows. The optimization of the design is a multiobjective problem, where both the heat transferred through the window and electric power consumption are minimized. The power supplies and the heat transfer are optimized under a reasonable number of randomly sampled environmental conditions. The subsequent optimal designs obtained are represented as functions of the corresponding environmental conditions using surrogate models. To this end, four types of surrogate models are used, namely, (i) Quadratic Response Surface Methodology (QRSM), (ii) Radial Basis Functions (RBF), (iii) Extended Radial Basis Functions (E-RBF), and (iv) Kriging. Their performances are compared using two accuracy measurement metrics: Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Maximum Absolute Error (MAE). We found that any one of the surrogate modeling methods is not superior to the others over the whole domain for the optimal control of the ATE window.
A Response Surface Based Wind Farm Cost (RS-WFC) model, is developed to evaluate the economics of wind farms. The RS-WFC model is developed using Extended Radial Basis Functions (E-RBF) for onshore wind farms in the U.S.. This model is then used to explore the in uence of di erent design and economic parameters, including number of turbines, rotor diameter and labor cost, on the cost of a wind farm. The RS-WFC model is composed of three parts that estimate (i) the installation cost, (ii) the annual Operation and Maintenance (O&M) cost, and (iii) the total annual cost of a wind farm. The accuracy of the cost model is favorably established through comparison with pertinent commercial data. Moreover, the RS-WFC model is integrated with an analytical power generation model of a wind farm. A recently developed Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) model is used to determine the power generated by a farm. The ratio of the total annual cost and the energy generated by the wind farm in one year (commonly known as the Cost of Energy, COE) is minimized in this paper. The results show that the COE could decreasesigni cantlythroughlayoutoptimization,toobtainmillionsofannualcostsavings.
This paper presents a new method (the Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO)) of arranging turbines in a wind farm to achieve maximum farm efficiency. The powers generated by individual turbines in a wind farm are dependent on each other, due to velocity deficits created by the wake effect. A standard analytical wake model has been used to account for the mutual influences of the turbines in a wind farm. A variable induction factor, dependent on the approaching wind velocity, estimates the velocity deficit across each turbine. Optimization is performed using a constrained Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. The model is validated against experimental data from a wind tunnel experiment on a scaled down wind farm. Reasonable agreement between the model and experimental results is obtained. A preliminary wind farm cost analysis is also performed to explore the effect of using turbines with different rotor diameters on the total power generation. The use of differing rotor diameters is observed to play an important role in improving the overall efficiency of a wind farm.
This paper develops a cost model for onshore wind farms in the U.S.. This model is then used to analyze the influence of different designs and economic parameters on the cost of a wind farm. A response surface based cost model is developed using Extended Radial Basis Functions (E-RBF). The E-RBF ap- proach, a combination of radial and non-radial basis functions, can provide the designer with significant flexibility and freedom in the metamodeling process. The E-RBF based cost model is composed of three parts that can estimate (i) the installation cost, (ii) the annual Operation and Maintenance (O&M) cost, and (iii) the total annual cost of a wind farm. The input param- eters for the E-RBF based cost model include the rotor diameter of a wind turbine,the number of wind turbines in a wind farm, the construction labor cost, the management labor cost and the technician labor cost. The accuracy of the model is favorably explored through comparison with pertinent real world data. It is found that the cost of a wind farm is appreciably sensitive to
the rotor diameter and the number of wind turbines for a given desirable total power output.
In the past decade or so, there has been appreciable progress in developing renewable energy resources; among them, wind energy has taken a lead, and is currently contributing towards 2.5% of the global electricity consumption (WWEA, 2011). On the downside, the variability of this resource itself has been one of the major factors restricting its potential growth – wind speed and direction show strong temporal variations. In addition, the distribution of wind conditions varies significantly from year to year. The resulting ill-predictability of the annual distribution of wind conditions introduces significant uncertainties in the estimated resource potential and the predicted performance of the wind farm.
The planning of a wind farm, which minimizes the lifecycle project costs and maximizes the reliability of the expected power generation, presents significant challenges to today’s wind energy industry. An optimal wind farm planning strategy that simultaneously (i) accounts for the key engineering design factors, and (ii) addresses the major sources of un- certainty in a wind farm, can offer a powerful solution to these daunting challenges. In this paper, we develop a new methodology to characterize the long term uncertainties, partic- ularly those introduced by the ill-predictability of the annual variation in wind conditions (wind speed and direction, and air density). The annual variation in wind conditions is rep- resented using a non-parametric wind distribution model. The uncertainty in the predicted annual wind distribution is then characterized using a set of lognormal distributions. The uncertainties in the estimated (i) farm power generation and (ii) Cost of energy (COE) are represented as functions of the variances of these lognormal distributions. Subsequently, we minimize the uncertainty in the COE through wind farm optimization. To this end, we apply the Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) framework, which provides a comprehensive platform for wind farm design. This methodology for robust wind farm optimization is applied to design a 25MW wind farm in N. Dakota. We found that layout optimization is appreciably sensitive to the uncertainties in wind conditions.
The determination of complex underlying relationships between system parameters from simulated and/or recorded data requires advanced interpolating functions, also known as surrogates. The development of surrogates for such complex relationships often requires the modeling of high dimensional and non-smooth functions using limited information. To this end, the hybrid surrogate modeling paradigm, where different surrogate models are aggregated, offers a robust solution. In this paper, we develop a new high fidelity surro- gate modeling technique that we call the Reliability Based Hybrid Functions (RBHF). The RBHF formulates a reliable Crowding Distance-Based Trust Region (CD-TR), and adap- tively combines the favorable characteristics of different surrogate models. The weight of each contributing surrogate model is determined based on the local reliability measure for that surrogate model in the pertinent trust region. Such an approach is intended to ex- ploit the advantages of each component surrogate. This approach seeks to simultaneously capture the global trend of the function and the local deviations. In this paper, the RBHF integrates four component surrogate models: (i) the Quadratic Response Surface Model (QRSM), (ii) the Radial Basis Functions (RBF), (iii) the Extended Radial Basis Functions (E-RBF), and (iv) the Kriging model. The RBHF is applied to standard test problems. Subsequent evaluations of the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and the Maximum Ab- solute Error (MAE), illustrate the promising potential of this hybrid surrogate modeling approach.
The development of large scale wind farms that can produce energy at a cost comparable to that of other conventional energy resources presents significant challenges to today’s wind energy industry. The consideration of the key design and environmental factors that influence the performance of a wind farm is a crucial part of the solution to this challenge. In this paper, we develop a methodology to account for the configuration of the farm land (length-to-breadth ratio and North-South-East-West orientation) within the scope of wind farm optimization. This approach appropriately captures the correlation between the (i) land configuration, (ii) the farm layout, and (iii) the selection of turbines-types. Simultaneous optimization of the farm layout and turbine selection is performed to minimize the Cost of Energy (COE), for a set of sample land configurations. The optimized COE and farm efficiency are then represented as functions of the land aspect ratio and the land orientation. To this end, we apply a recently developed response surface method known as the Reliability-Based Hybrid Functions. The overall wind farm design methodology is applied to design a 25MW farm in North Dakota. This case study provides helpful insights into the influence of the land configuration on the optimum farm performance that can be obtained for a particular site.
This paper explores the effectiveness of the recently devel- oped surrogate modeling method, the Adaptive Hybrid Functions (AHF), through its application to complex engineered systems design. The AHF is a hybrid surrogate modeling method that seeks to exploit the advantages of each component surrogate. In this paper, the AHF integrates three component surrogate mod- els: (i) the Radial Basis Functions (RBF), (ii) the Extended Ra- dial Basis Functions (E-RBF), and (iii) the Kriging model, by characterizing and evaluating the local measure of accuracy of each model. The AHF is applied to model complex engineer- ing systems and an economic system, namely: (i) wind farm de- sign; (ii) product family design (for universal electric motors); (iii) three-pane window design; and (iv) onshore wind farm cost estimation. We use three differing sampling techniques to inves- tigate their influence on the quality of the resulting surrogates. These sampling techniques are (i) Latin Hypercube Sampling
∗Doctoral Student, Multidisciplinary Design and Optimization Laboratory, Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering, ASME student member.
†Distinguished Professor and Department Chair. Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, ASME Lifetime Fellow. Corresponding author.
‡Associate Professor, Department of Mechanical Aerospace and Nuclear En- gineering, ASME member (LHS), (ii) Sobol’s quasirandom sequence, and (iii) Hammers- ley Sequence Sampling (HSS). Cross-validation is used to evalu- ate the accuracy of the resulting surrogate models. As expected, the accuracy of the surrogate model was found to improve with increase in the sample size. We also observed that, the Sobol’s and the LHS sampling techniques performed better in the case of high-dimensional problems, whereas the HSS sampling tech- nique performed better in the case of low-dimensional problems. Overall, the AHF method was observed to provide acceptable- to-high accuracy in representing complex design systems.
Currently, the quality of wind measure of a site is assessed using Wind Power Density (WPD). This paper proposes to use a more credible metric namely, one we call the Wind Power Potential (WPP). While the former only uses wind speed information, the latter exploits both wind speed and wind direction distributions, and yields more credible estimates. The new measure of quality of a wind resource, the Wind Power Potential Evaluation (WPPE) model, investigates the effect of wind velocity distribution on the optimal net power generation of a farm. Bivariate normal distribution is used to characterize the stochastic variation of wind conditions (speed and direction). The net power generation for a particular farm size and installed capacity are maximized for different distributions of wind speed and wind direction, using the Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology. A response surface is constructed, using the recently developed Reliability Based Hybrid Functions (RBHF), to represent the computed maximum power generation as a function of the parameters of the wind velocity (speed and direction) distribution. To this end, for any farm site, we can (i) estimate the parameters of wind velocity distribution using recorded wind data, and (ii) predict the max- imum power generation for a specified farm size and capacity, using the developed response surface. The WPPE model is validated through recorded wind data at four differing stations obtained from the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN). The results illustrate the variation of wind conditions and, subsequently, its influence on the quality of a wind resource.
This paper presents a new method to accurately char- acterize and predict the annual variation of wind conditions. Estimation of the distribution of wind conditions is necessary (i) to quantify the available energy (power density) at a site, and (ii) to design optimal wind farm configurations. We develop a smooth multivariate wind distribution model that captures the coupled variation of wind speed, wind direction, and air density. The wind distribution model developed in this paper also avoids the limiting assumption of unimodality of the distribution. This method, which we call the Multivariate and Multimodal Wind distribution (MMWD) model, is an evolution from existing wind distribution modeling techniques. Multivariate kernel density estimation, a standard non-parametric approach to estimate the probability density function of random variables, is adopted for this purpose. The MMWD technique is successfully applied to model (i) the distribution of wind speed (univariate); (ii) the distribution of wind speed and wind direction (bivariate); and (iii) the distribution of wind speed, wind direction, and air density (multivariate). The latter is a novel contribution of this paper, while the former offers opportunities for validation. Ten-year recorded wind data, obtained from the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN), is used in this paper. We found the coupled distribution to be multimodal. A strong correlation among the wind condition parameters was also observed.
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Published classroom materials form the basis of syllabuses, drive teacher professional development, and have a potentially huge influence on learners, teachers and education systems. All teachers also create their own materials, whether a few sentences on a blackboard, a highly-structured fully-realised online course, or anything in between. Despite this, the knowledge and skills needed to create effective language learning materials are rarely part of teacher training, and are mostly learnt by trial and error.
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Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies such as Generative AI, Image Generators and Large Language Models have had a dramatic impact on teaching, learning and assessment over the past 18 months. The most immediate threat AI posed was to Academic Integrity with Higher Education Institutes (HEIs) focusing their efforts on combating the use of GenAI in assessment. Guidelines were developed for staff and students, policies put in place too. Innovative educators have forged paths in the use of Generative AI for teaching, learning and assessments leading to pockets of transformation springing up across HEIs, often with little or no top-down guidance, support or direction.
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1. Comprehensive Product Platform
Planning (CP3)
Framework: Presenting a Generalized
Product Family
Souma Chowdhury, Achille Messac,
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Department of Mechanical, Aerospace, and Nuclear Engineering
Multidisciplinary Design and Optimization Laboratory
and
Ritesh Khire
United Technologies Research Center
2. A guide to the next 20 minutes
Brief overview of product family design methodologies
Introduction to the Comprehensive Product Platform Planning (CP3) framework
Mathematical representation of the CP3 model
Key aspects of the CP3 optimization strategy
Application of the CP3 framework to a family of Universal Electric Motors
2
3. Product Family
A typical product family consists of multiple products that share common features
embodied in a, so-called, platform, defined in terms of platform design variables.
3
Product Family Structure
GM Chevrolet Product Line
Efficient product platform planning
generally leads to reduced overhead
that results in lower per product cost.
Product family design relies on
quantitative optimization
methodologies.
4. Types of Product Families
In scale based product families two critical decisions are typically made:
• the selection of platform and scaling design variables (combinatorial)
• the determination of the values of these design variables (continuous)
The design process of module-based product family is conceptually divided
into the following three levels:
• Architectural level
• Configuration level
• Instantiation level
4
5. Comprehensive Product Platform Planning (CP3)
Objectives
• To develop an integrated mathematical model of the product platform
planning process.
• To avoid the typical design barriers between scalable and modular product
families.
• To develop a robust solution strategy that optimizes the product platform
model.
5
6. Earlier Product Platform Planning Methods
Scale based product families
6
Combinatorial
in nature
Continuous/Discrete
in nature
Select platform and
scaling design
variables
Determine optimal
values of platform and
scaling design variables
Step 1 Step 2
Platform/Scaling
Combination #1
(optimized)
Platform/Scaling
Combination #2n
(optimized)
Compare
all 2n
optimal
designs and
select
overall
optimal
Two-Step approach
This method is likely to introduce a
significant source of sub-optimality
Exhaustive approach
This method is expected to be
computationally prohibitive for
large scale systems
7. Earlier Product Platform Planning Methods…
Modular product families
7
Instantiation Level
Fixed module
combination
Predefined
module
candidates
Simultaneous optimization
of module attribute and
module combination
Do not readily apply to scalable
product families
8. Recent Product Platform Planning Method
Recent methods in scalable product family design such as Genetic Algorithm
based approaches, Selection Integrated Optimization approaches effectively
address the typical limitations of the earlier methods. However these
methods
• Assume that a platform is formed only when a design variable is common to
all products (the “all common/all distinct” restriction),
• Do not readily apply to both modular and scale-based product families,
• Assume that the cost reduction resulting from platform planning is
independent of the total number of each product manufactured, and
• Assume that the cost reduction resulting from platform planning is equally
sensitive to each design variable comprising the product.
8
9. Basic Components of the CP3 Framework
CP3 Model
• Formulates an integrated mathematical model yielding a MINLP* problem
• Seeks to eliminate distinctions between modular and scalable families
• Allows the formation of sub-families of products
CP3 Optimization
• Provides a robust solution to the MINLP problem
• Uses the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm
• Accounts for the effect of the number of each product manufactured on the
cost objective (cost of product family to be minimized)
9
*MINLP: Mixed Integer Non-Linear Programming
10. Physical Design Variable Product-1 Product-2 Integer Variables
1st variable
2nd variable
3rd variable
CP3 Model
The generalized CP3 model develops a MINLP problem. This is illustrated by a
2-product/3-variable product family.
10
f Y
PERFORMANCE
f Y
2 2 2
12 1 2 12 1 2 12 1 2
1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3
1 1 1 2 2
1 2 3 1 2
Max
Min
s.t. 0
0, 1,2,....,
Design Constraints
0, 1,2,....,
, , , , ,
COST
i
i
x x x x x x
g X i p
h X i q
Y x x x x x
2
3 1 2 3
x
1 1 1 2 2 2
1 2 3 1 2 3
X
x x x x x x
1 2 3
, , ,
, , , , ,
B B
, , : 0, 1
1 2 12
x x
if , then 0
if 1, then
j j j
12 1 2
x x
j j j
1
1x
1
2x
1
3x
2
1x
2
2x
2
3x
12
1
12
2
12
3
0
1
15. Product Family Cost Analysis
15
CF CFD CFO
Net Product Family Cost Direct Cost Auxiliary Cost
C f X m diag f X m
, ,
, ,
,
F FD FO
f X
c
m: Number of products manufactured (Capacity vector)
16. Nature of Cost Variation
16
Direct Cost
2
f 0 & f 0 k
1, 2, ...,
N
m k FD ( m
k ) 2 FD
0
& : Auxiliary Cost per product
FO
FO
f
M
M
m f
Auxiliary Cost
Number of similar products manufactured
17. Generalized MINLP Problem
Performance objective
Cost objective
Commonality Constraint
17
Max
Min
s.t. 0
0,
1,2,....,
0,
1,2,....,
1 2 1 2 1 2
1 1 1
where
,
p
c
T
i
i
M
T
N N N
j j j n n n
f Y
f Y
X X
g X i p
h X i q
C
Y
X
X x x x x x x x x x
18. CP3 Optimization: Cost Objective
Cost Decay Function (CDF)
• An increase in (i) the specified capacity of production m and/or (ii)
1
commonalities λ in the product family tend to reduce the cost of
manufacturing per product.
0.9
k)
j
k (CDF
j
• Hence the Cost Decay Function (CDF) that represents the variation of the
18
cost of manufacturing per product is defined as
c
2
1
1
1
3 2
3
1
1
c
k k c
j c j
CDF M c c
c
M m
0.8
0.7
c1: coefficient that controls the rate of cost decrease per product
c2: coefficient that provides the practical extent of this cost decrease
4 0.5
c3: coefficient 0
that provides the maximum possible capacity of production
10
1
10
2
10
3
10
10
0.6
k (M
Number of products that share design variable x
j
k)
j
Cost Decay Function for variable x
c
1
= 0.1
c
1
= 0.2
c
1
= 0.3
c
1
= 0.4
c
1
= 0.5
c
1
= 0.6
c
1
= 0.7
c
1
= 0.8
c
1
= 0.9
c
1
= 1.0
c
2
= 0.5
c
3
= 104
19. CP3 Optimization: Commonality Constraint
Platform Segregating Mapping Function (PSMF)
• The commonality constraint can be reformulated as
• A continuous approximation of this expression is achieved using a set of
Gaussian probability distribution function for each design variable
19
XT X
2
x k x
l
1.0
0.8
kl j j
j
2 exp
2
j
)
a
PSMFX
0.6
1,
0.4
x
10
p b x
10
2 2ln10
1
10
a
0.2
• The full width at one-tenth maximum for each design variable is given by
10 j 10 j
0.0
x x x 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
Magnitude of jth design variable, x
j
Commonality variable (kl
j
product 1
product 2
product 3
product 4
product 5
20. Overall CP3 Optimization Strategy
N
usly optimize products using PSO (solve Eq. 30)
Npop istage istage
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
20
Approximated MINLP problem
Pseudo-code
w f X w f X w
X X
g X i p
h X i q
1 1 1 Max 1 , 0.5
s.t.
p s
0, 1,2,....,
0, 1,2,....,
where
PSMF
T
i
i
M
C
X
1. Optimize each product using PSO (maximizing performance)
2. Determine the range for implementing PSO on each
3. Initiate a random population of size
max
)
4. Set 10 10
& 1
5. Simultaneo
j x
Npop
x x istage
1
min 1
1 10
10 10 10 10
max
10
6. Set , where
7. Choose the optimal configuration as one of the starting point
Nstage
istage istage frac frac
x
x x x x
x
s
8. Initiate a random population of size -1, & set 1
9. If istage Nstage
go to step 5, else terminate solution
0.0
Magnitude of jth design variable, x
j
Commonality variable (kl
j
delx = 10.0
delx = 8.0
delx = 6.0
delx = 4.0
delx = 2.0
delx = 1.0
delx = 0.5
delx = 0.1
21. Constrained Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)
21
Swarm Motion
t 1 t t
1
i i i
t t t t
i i l i i g g i
x x v
v v r p x r p x
1
1 2
Constraint Dominance Principle
Solution-i is said to dominate solution-j if,
• solution-i is feasible and solution-j is infeasible or,
• both solutions are infeasible and solution-i has a smaller constraint violation
than solution-j or,
• both solutions are feasible and solution-i weakly dominates solution-j.
22. Test Problem: Universal Electric Motor
In this example, the objective is to develop a scale-based product family of
five universal electric motors that are required to satisfy different torque
requirements (Trq)
22
Motor 1 2 3 4 5
Torque N/m 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Design Variable Lower Limit Upper Limit
Number of turns on the armature (Nc) 100 1500
Number of turns on each field pole (Ns) 1 500
Cross-sectional area of the armature wire (Awa) 0.01 mm2 1.00 mm2
Cross-sectional area of the field pole wire (Awf) 0.01 mm2 1.00 mm2
Radius of the motor (ro) 10.00 mm 100.00 mm
Thickness of the stator (t) 0.50 mm 10.00 mm
Stack length of the motor (L) 1.00 mm 100.00 mm
Current drawn by the motor (I) 0.1 Amp 6.0 Amp
23. Test Problem Optimization
Performance obj. Cost obj.
N N n
1 1
23
1 1 Max 1
f
f m
N Nn
T T k 1, 2, ...,
N
P k N
M k
w f X w f X
300 N/m 1, 2, ...,
2 kg 1, 2,
s.t.
p c
k k
rq
k
out
k
total
...,
5000 Amp.turns/m 1, 2, ..., Physi
0.15 1, 2, ...,
1 1, 2, ...,
k
k
k
o
k
N
H k N
k N
r
k N
t
X X
1 1 1
cal design constraints
where
Commonality constraint
PSMF
T
M
T
C s wa wf o
C
X
X N N A A r t L I
CDF
5, 7
k
p k c j
k k j
N n
24. CP3 Optimization Results
Three different cases are analyzed: classified by the number of each product
manufactured (capacity vector m)
Case 1: m10
Case 2: m100
Case 3: m10000
24
0.25
29
27
0.2
25
23
0.15
21
19
4 15
0.05
0
3
4 10
1
10
2
10
3
10
10
17
1
2
Capacity of production (mk)
Number of adaptive variables
0
10
10
10
10
0.1
Capacity of production (mkExtent of commonality (EC)
25. Concluding Remarks
The CP3 technique provides a comprehensive mathematical model of the
platform planning process which is unique in the literature.
The CP3 model accounts for certain aspects the instantiation level of modular
product families.
The CP3 technique performs simultaneous selection of platform design
variables and optimization of design variable values
The “all common/all distinct” restriction is avoided.
The set of product platforms obtained is not necessarily independent
“specified number of products manufactured”.
25
26. Concluding Remarks
The CP3 model formulates a generic MINLP problem.
The Platform Segregating Mapping Function (PSMF) approximates the
MINLP problem into a continuous problem.
A Cost Decay Function (CDF) approximates the cost per product attributed
to the total number of products that share a particular design variable.
FutureWork
The solution of the exact MINLP problem, instead of a continuous
approximation is being pursued.
A multi-objective scenario will also be investigated, to explore the trade-offs
between product performances and net cost reduction resulting from
platform planning.
Further exploration of module-based product family applications will be
performed to establish the true potential of this new method.
26
27. References
1. http://www.chevrolet.com/, GM (Chevrolet) official website.
2. Simpson, T. W., and D'Souza, B. “Assessing variable levels of platform commonality within a
product family using a multiobjective genetic algorithm,” Concurrent Engineering: Research
and Applications, Vol. 12, No. 2, 2004, pp. 119-130.
3. Stone, R. B., Wood, K. L., and Crawford, R. H., “A heuristic method to identify modules from a
functional description of a product,” Design Studies, Vol. 21, No. 1, 2000, pp. 5-31.
4. Messac, A., Martinez, M. P., and Simpson, T. W., “Introduction of a Product Family Penalty
Function Using Physical Programming,” ASME Journal of Mechanical Design, Vol. 124, No. 2,
2002, pp. 164-172.
5. Khire, R. A., Messac, A., and Simpson, T. W., “Optimal design of product families using
Selection-Integrated Optimization (SIO) Methodology,” In: 11th AIAA/ISSMO Symposium on
Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization, Portsmouth, VA September 2006.
6. Khajavirad, A., Michalek, J. J., and Simpson, T. W., “An Efficient Decomposed Multiobjective
Genetic Algorithm for Solving the Joint Product Platform Selection and Product Family Design
Problem with Generalized Commonality,” Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization, Vol.
39, No. 2, 2009, pp. 187-201.
7. Chen, C., and Wang, L. A., “Modified Genetic Algorithm for Product Family Optimization with
Platform Specified by Information Theoretical Approach,” J. Shanghai Jiaotong University
(Science), Vol. 13, No. 3, 2008, pp. 304–311.
27
28. References
8. Kennedy, J., and Eberhart, R. C., “Particle Swarm Optimization,” In Proceedings of the 1995
IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks, 1995, pp. 1942-1948.
9. Deb, K., Pratap, A., Agarwal, S., and Meyarivan, “T. A Fast and Elitist Multi-objective Genetic
Algorithm: NSGA-II,” IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation, Vol 6, No. 2, April 2002,
pp. 182-197.
10. Simpson, T. W., Maier, J. R. A. and Mistree, F., “Product Platform Design: Method and
Application,” Research in Engineering Design, Vol. 13, No. 1, 2001, pp. 2–22.
28