Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 202 (Rep. Merrick) & HB 37 (Rep. Wool) proposing (and in the case of HB 37, some substitute revenues to reduce the level of) cuts in the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD).
HB 202 (HFIN): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable BudgetsBrad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets with the House Finance Committee on HB 202 (Rep. Merrick) proposing a restructuring of and cuts in the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD).
Comments in opposition to SB 199 & SB 200 (2.20.2022)Brad Keithley
The comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets in opposition to Senate Finance Committee bills SB 199 & SB 200, which propose to substantially restructure and cut the Permanent Fund Dividend.
Alaska's Fiscal Situation: Where We've Been, Where We're Headed (10.26.2019)Brad Keithley
A presentation to UAA Prof. Willie Hensley's "Alaska Policy Frontiers" seminar on October 26, 2019, on Alaska's current fiscal situation, how we got here, where we are and the options for where we go from here.
Impact of Proposed PFDCuts on Alaska Income & Jobs (Supplement to 3.4.2021 Le...Brad Keithley
This presentation is to supplement the 3.4.2021 LegFin Presentation to the Senate Finance Committee to analyze the impact of the PFDcuts discussed there on Alaska income & jobs.
HJR1 & HB165: Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets CommentsBrad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HJR 1 & HB165, Rep. Kreiss-Tomkin's proposed Constitutional Amendment to Guarantee the Permanent Fund Dividend
HB 189 (Employment Tax for Education): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable B...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 189, the House Ways & Means Committee bill which would establish an employment tax for education.
HB 202 (HFIN): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable BudgetsBrad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets with the House Finance Committee on HB 202 (Rep. Merrick) proposing a restructuring of and cuts in the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD).
Comments in opposition to SB 199 & SB 200 (2.20.2022)Brad Keithley
The comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets in opposition to Senate Finance Committee bills SB 199 & SB 200, which propose to substantially restructure and cut the Permanent Fund Dividend.
Alaska's Fiscal Situation: Where We've Been, Where We're Headed (10.26.2019)Brad Keithley
A presentation to UAA Prof. Willie Hensley's "Alaska Policy Frontiers" seminar on October 26, 2019, on Alaska's current fiscal situation, how we got here, where we are and the options for where we go from here.
Impact of Proposed PFDCuts on Alaska Income & Jobs (Supplement to 3.4.2021 Le...Brad Keithley
This presentation is to supplement the 3.4.2021 LegFin Presentation to the Senate Finance Committee to analyze the impact of the PFDcuts discussed there on Alaska income & jobs.
HJR1 & HB165: Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets CommentsBrad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HJR 1 & HB165, Rep. Kreiss-Tomkin's proposed Constitutional Amendment to Guarantee the Permanent Fund Dividend
HB 189 (Employment Tax for Education): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable B...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 189, the House Ways & Means Committee bill which would establish an employment tax for education.
At 78 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), federal debt held by the public is now at its highest level since shortly after World War II. If current laws generally remained unchanged, CBO projects, growing budget deficits would boost that debt sharply over the next 30 years; it would approach 100 percent of GDP by the end of the next decade and 152 percent by 2048. That amount would be the highest in the nation’s history by far. The prospect of large and growing debt poses substantial risks for the nation and presents policymakers with significant challenges.
A primer on national debt and the debt ceiling with a focus on the 2011 debt ceiling crisis and the Budget Control Act as well as an analysis of scenarios for debt reduction in 2013
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
This presentation discusses the upcoming Federal Budget for the government of Canada. The presentation will look at the following areas:
1. Taxation
2. Program Spending
3. OAS
4. Deficits
5. Debt
6. Structural deficits
7. Raising Taxes
8. What if scenarios
Fred Dickson, Chief Investment Strategist for DA Davidson spoke at the Southern Oregon Business Conference on January 26, 2011. While our region has some specific challenges, it is good to hear that we are avoiding a double-dip recession and we can expect to continue a slow recovery.
Comments and Proposed Amendment of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 306...Brad Keithley
The comments and proposed amendment of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB306 (the proposal by Reps. Johnston & Kopp permanently to implement POMV 80/20).
Mercer Capital's Value Matters™ | Issue 1, 2022 Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Value Matters™, published 6 times per year, addresses gift & estate tax, ESOP, buy-sell agreement, and transaction advisory topics of interest to estate planners and other professional advisors to business.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Robert Arnold, and Joshua Shakin, CBO Unit Chiefs, at a joint seminar by CBO and the Congressional Research Service.
SJR6/SB53 (HJR7/HB73): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets Comments ...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on SJR6/SB53 (HJR7/HB73), the Governor's proposed Constitutional Amendments relating to the Alaska permanent fund, appropriations from the permanent fund, and the permanent fund dividend.
At 78 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), federal debt held by the public is now at its highest level since shortly after World War II. If current laws generally remained unchanged, CBO projects, growing budget deficits would boost that debt sharply over the next 30 years; it would approach 100 percent of GDP by the end of the next decade and 152 percent by 2048. That amount would be the highest in the nation’s history by far. The prospect of large and growing debt poses substantial risks for the nation and presents policymakers with significant challenges.
A primer on national debt and the debt ceiling with a focus on the 2011 debt ceiling crisis and the Budget Control Act as well as an analysis of scenarios for debt reduction in 2013
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
This presentation discusses the upcoming Federal Budget for the government of Canada. The presentation will look at the following areas:
1. Taxation
2. Program Spending
3. OAS
4. Deficits
5. Debt
6. Structural deficits
7. Raising Taxes
8. What if scenarios
Fred Dickson, Chief Investment Strategist for DA Davidson spoke at the Southern Oregon Business Conference on January 26, 2011. While our region has some specific challenges, it is good to hear that we are avoiding a double-dip recession and we can expect to continue a slow recovery.
Comments and Proposed Amendment of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 306...Brad Keithley
The comments and proposed amendment of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB306 (the proposal by Reps. Johnston & Kopp permanently to implement POMV 80/20).
Mercer Capital's Value Matters™ | Issue 1, 2022 Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Value Matters™, published 6 times per year, addresses gift & estate tax, ESOP, buy-sell agreement, and transaction advisory topics of interest to estate planners and other professional advisors to business.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Robert Arnold, and Joshua Shakin, CBO Unit Chiefs, at a joint seminar by CBO and the Congressional Research Service.
SJR6/SB53 (HJR7/HB73): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets Comments ...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on SJR6/SB53 (HJR7/HB73), the Governor's proposed Constitutional Amendments relating to the Alaska permanent fund, appropriations from the permanent fund, and the permanent fund dividend.
After the US dollar replaced gold, the US debt became the attention worldwide, thus the demand for the US dollar continued, furthermore the extremely low interest of the dollar. This helped the US government to borrow great amounts of debt as well as kept the creditors pleased. Due to the pandemic, the US economy retrograded because of the tax cut and unproductive rescue spending plan plus surpassing spending of the government. The rising inflation starts to increase to high levels, which certainly the government must cut back spending or its patterns, while this will lead to uncertain consequences for the long future. This paper discusses several different perspectives on the US government's sustainability as its ability to settle the debt in future, the fate of growth burdened with that debt through the neoclassical mode of growth, and also the effect of anxiety of defaults and unfunded obligations. Inversely, it explores the strength of the dollar with a low-interest rate and its sustainability worldwide. We also propose ways helping of strengthen the fiscal government position and solutions to help the economy recover in long term and to easiest the situation. In the synopsis, we propose something that could affect and shake the global market.
HFIN CS for HB69 (work draft presented 4.23.2021): Comments of Alaskans for S...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HFIN CS for HB69, the House Finance Committee's proposed committee substitute for HB69, the Governor's proposed operating budget.
Testimony before HRES on South Central GasBrad Keithley
By invitation, we testified before the Alaska House Resources Committee on March 15, 2024, on Southcentral Gas Supply. The presentation was part of the Committee's look into the implications of the challenges currently facing Cook Inlet gas supplies.
The presentation addressed both energy and fiscal policy. Our theme was simple: " Let the market decide" and no subsidies. But if there are subsidies, they should be paid for other than through PFD cuts.
The slide-deck we used is attached here. The hearing itself is available at https://bit.ly/48YyBFf.
Presentation to Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce's Government Relations ...Brad Keithley
Our September 27, 2022, presentation to the Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce's Govt Relations Comm on Alaska's current fiscal situation and our views on the positions of the candidates for Alaska Governor in response.
SJR 1 (Guarantee Perm Fund Dividend): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Bu...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on SJR 1, Sen. Wielechowski's proposed Constitutional Amendment to Guarantee the Permanent Fund Dividend
Distributional Impact of Proposed PFDCuts on Alaska Families by Income Bracke...Brad Keithley
This presentation is to supplement the 3.4.2021 LegFin Presentation to the Senate Finance Committee to analyze the distributional impact by income bracket of the level of PFDcuts discussed there.
Analysis by the Legislative Finance Division of Alaska's fiscal position: how we got here, where we are and where we are headed under various alternatives.
Upcoming Federal Fiscal Deadlines (10.20.2020)Brad Keithley
An important fact to know in thinking about federal fiscal policy is when are the upcoming "action forcing" events -- the dates on which, if Congress does not act, there are serious fiscal consequences. As part of a larger presentation the Concord Coalition's National Policy Director, Tori Gorman, recently complied a list of those dates. Here is the slide deck.
Concord Coalition: The Current US Fiscal Situation (October 2020)Brad Keithley
A chart talk from The Concord Coalition analyzing the fiscal challenges facing the US before COVID, and how the economic impact of COVID and the federal response has made that situation even more difficult.
An update by the Department of Revenue on the FY21 & 22 revenue outlook and the oil tax credit obligations reverting to the state following the Supreme Court's rejection of HB331.
Alaska's Fiscal Situation: Where We've Been, Where We're HeadedBrad Keithley
A presentation to the Alaska Interior Republicans to review Alaska's current fiscal situation, where it is headed and the various options for dealing with the continued fiscal gap.
Apr 4, 2020 Letter from Sen. Shelley Hughes to Gov. Dunleavy re: BudgetBrad Keithley
Sen. Shelley Hughes April 4, 2020 letter to Governor Dunleavy regarding transfers from the Permanent Fund Earnings Reserve Account, and Permanent Fund Dividend amounts, made as part of the FY20 and FY21 Budgets.
Restatement of LegFin 3.21.2020 Presentation Using POMV 50/50Brad Keithley
The Legislative Finance Division's 3.21.2020 presentation to SFIN blends the full POMV draw into UGF. This restates the numbers using POMV 50/50, with 50% of the POMV draw going to citizens and 50% to government.
‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
In a May 9, 2024 paper, Juri Opitz from the University of Zurich, along with Shira Wein and Nathan Schneider form Georgetown University, discussed the importance of linguistic expertise in natural language processing (NLP) in an era dominated by large language models (LLMs).
The authors explained that while machine translation (MT) previously relied heavily on linguists, the landscape has shifted. “Linguistics is no longer front and center in the way we build NLP systems,” they said. With the emergence of LLMs, which can generate fluent text without the need for specialized modules to handle grammar or semantic coherence, the need for linguistic expertise in NLP is being questioned.
role of women and girls in various terror groupssadiakorobi2
Women have three distinct types of involvement: direct involvement in terrorist acts; enabling of others to commit such acts; and facilitating the disengagement of others from violent or extremist groups.
31052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
03062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
01062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
हम आग्रह करते हैं कि जो भी सत्ता में आए, वह संविधान का पालन करे, उसकी रक्षा करे और उसे बनाए रखे।" प्रस्ताव में कुल तीन प्रमुख हस्तक्षेप और उनके तंत्र भी प्रस्तुत किए गए। पहला हस्तक्षेप स्वतंत्र मीडिया को प्रोत्साहित करके, वास्तविकता पर आधारित काउंटर नैरेटिव का निर्माण करके और सत्तारूढ़ सरकार द्वारा नियोजित मनोवैज्ञानिक हेरफेर की रणनीति का मुकाबला करके लोगों द्वारा निर्धारित कथा को बनाए रखना और उस पर कार्यकरना था।
HB 202 & HB 37 (Statutory PFD Reductions): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets
1. 5/14/2021 Gmail - Comments on HB 202 & HB 37
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ik=d8f123d76e&view=pt&search=all&permmsgid=msg-a%3Ar-195653333765413969&simpl=msg-a%3Ar-195653333… 1/4
Brad Keithley <bgkeithley@gmail.com>
Comments on HB 202 & HB 37
Brad Keithley <bgkeithley@gmail.com> Fri, May 14, 2021 at 12:44 PM
To: House Ways and Means <House.Ways.And.Means@akleg.gov>
Cc: Representative.Ivy.Spohnholz@akleg.gov, Representative.Adam.Wool@akleg.gov, "Rep. Andy Josephson"
<Rep.Andy.Josephson@akleg.gov>, Representative.Calvin.Schrage@akleg.gov, Representative.Andi.Story@akleg.gov,
Representative.Mike.Prax@akleg.gov, Representative.David.Eastman@akleg.gov, Rose Foley <Rose.Foley@akleg.gov>
On behalf of the Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets project, this is to provide our comments on HB 202 and HB 37. For the
reasons outlined below, we oppose HB 202 and HB 37 as originally proposed. As discussed in III. below, however, we
could support HB 37, if modified as proposed in that part.
I. Introduction
Both HB 202 and HB 37 propose significant reductions to the current statutory PFD. For reference, below we compare the
PFD levels proposed by the bills, together with that proposed by the Governor this week (POMV 50/50), to the current
law baseline.
The bills propose the reductions in order to divert to government a significant portion of the revenues that otherwise
would go to Alaska families under current law. The impact is far from even across all families, however. Some would
forego a much greater percentage of their income than others. Put another way, under both bills some families would be
required to contribute more (be taxed more) - much more as a percent of their income - to pay for government than
others.
II. Distributional Impact
To assess their impact on Alaska families we have calculated by income bracket the percentage change in income
(effective tax rate) for a family of 4 under each bill. The average base income level for each bracket is taken from the
December 2020 ITEP Study (Appendix A). The percentages are calculated by adjusting the base income for the current
law PFD and applying the cuts from that current law baseline proposed by each bill.
The results for HB 202 are as follows:
2. 5/14/2021 Gmail - Comments on HB 202 & HB 37
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ik=d8f123d76e&view=pt&search=all&permmsgid=msg-a%3Ar-195653333765413969&simpl=msg-a%3Ar-195653333… 2/4
As shown, the results are hugely regressive, with low income (Lower 20%) Alaska families contributing more than 10
times, middle income Alaska families more than 3 times and even upper middle income families more than double the
amount contributed by upper income families.
HB 37 is structured somewhat differently. In addition to the reduction in the PFD, the statute also proposes an income
tax which, while stated as a flat rate, is somewhat progressive in effect due to the inclusion of a standard deduction and
exclusion of the PFD from income. Nonetheless, because of the size of the proposed PFD cut, the overall impact remains
substantially regressive.
Low income (Lower 20%) Alaska families still contribute more than 7 times, middle income Alaska families nearly 3 times
and even upper middle income families nearly 2 times the amount contributed by upper income families.
As we said when we presented to the Committee earlier this session (at p. 11), not only are such results inequitable,
using PFD cuts (or in the case of HB 37, mostly PFD cuts) to close the deficit have the "largest adverse impact" of all the
various revenue options on both the overall Alaska economy and Alaska families. For that reason we oppose both HB 202
and HB 37 as written. There are much more equitable and lower impact approaches.
III. Proposed Modification of HB 37
Indeed, by amending HB 37 we believe the Committee could develop one such, more equitable/lower impact approach.
3. 5/14/2021 Gmail - Comments on HB 202 & HB 37
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ik=d8f123d76e&view=pt&search=all&permmsgid=msg-a%3Ar-195653333765413969&simpl=msg-a%3Ar-195653333… 3/4
Our concern with HB 37 largely revolves around the size of the PFD cut. Reducing the size of the PFD cut (to POMV
50/50), offset by increasing the size of the tax component (to 6.5%) to maintain the same overall revenue level, would
produce a much more equitable, lower impact result.
While still regressive, the disparities between income brackets would shrink significantly. Moreover, under such a
modified approach, all income brackets other than the Top20% would see a significant reduction in their combined tax
rate from that resulting under either HB 202 or HB 37, as originally proposed.
A middle income family of 4, for example, would see their effective tax rate decline from 17.1% (HB 202) and 15.7% (HB
37, as originally proposed) to 8.0% (Modified HB 37). An upper middle income family of 4 would see their effective tax
rate decline from 12.7% (HB 202) and 10.8% (HB 37, as originally proposed) to 7.5% (Modified HB 37). Only upper
income (Top20%) families would contribute more under HB 37, as modified, than the other options, but even then they
would still be called on to contribute less than every other income bracket (the remaining 80%) is contributing.
Such a result is not only more equitable, it would substantially reduce the adverse impact of the proposed bill on both
Alaska families and the overall Alaska economy.
IV. Conclusion
For all of these reasons, we oppose HB 202 and HB 37, as originally proposed. They create a hugely regressive and
inequitable burden among Alaska families, leading to large adverse impacts on both those families and the overall
Alaska economy.
We could support HB 37, however, if amended as proposed in III. above. By substantially reducing the regressivity of the
original proposal, the bill would significantly lower the adverse impact on both Alaska families and the overall Alaska
economy.
We also note that HB 37's income based, "flat" approach is critical both to the fairness and our support of a modified bill.
Substituting a sales tax as the tax component, for example, would go in the opposite direction, increasing the
regressivity of the impact. As we noted in our earlier presentation to the Committee (at 11), after PFD cuts, "sales taxes
would be the next costliest measure for households with children." As explained in ITEP's 2017 study:
... general sales taxes tend to be regressive, impacting low- and middle-income families more heavily than high-
income families when measured as a percentage of household income. This effect comes about largely because
low- and middle-income families spend a larger fraction of their earnings on items subject to sales tax, while high-
income families direct a large share of their income into savings and investments.
HB 37's balance, as modified, depends on maintaining a flat (to slightly progressive) counterbalance to the regressivity
of the PFD cuts. Substituting a sales tax for the current tax component would simply stack one regressive approach on
4. 5/14/2021 Gmail - Comments on HB 202 & HB 37
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ik=d8f123d76e&view=pt&search=all&permmsgid=msg-a%3Ar-195653333765413969&simpl=msg-a%3Ar-195653333… 4/4
top of another, doubling down on bad.
We appreciate the opportunity to submit these comments.
Brad
Brad Keithley
Managing Director, Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets
Cell/Txt: 214-675-0038
Links: linktr.ee/bgkeithley
Mail: 645 G Street, Suite 100, No 796, Anchorage, Alaska 99501
Web: AKforSB.com