Press Briefing on An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook

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Director Douglas W. Elmendorf's Press Briefing Slides on CBO's report An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024

Government & Nonprofit

Congressional Budget Office
An Update to the Budget and Economic
Outlook: 2014 to 2024
Press Briefing
Douglas W. Elmendorf
Director
August 27, 2014
For more details, see www.cbo.gov/publication/45653.

CBO
Projected Outlays for Major Budget Categories

CBO
Components of the Total Increase in Outlays in
CBO’s Baseline Between 2014 and 2024

CBO
Measures of Wages and Salaries Paid to Employees

CBO
Interest Rates on Treasury Securities

Presentation by Jeff Werling, Assistant Director, Macroeconomic Analysis Division, for the REALTOR® University Speaker Series. In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, budget deficits would eventually follow an upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II.

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Presentation by Ben Page, CBO's Fiscal Policy Studies Unit Chief, at the National Tax Association 108th Annual Conference on Taxation. CBO’s long-term budget projections generally reflect current law and estimates of future economic conditions and demographic trends. Those projections depend on estimates of the future paths of mortality rates, productivity, interest rates, and health care costs, among many other variables. To illustrate some of the uncertainty about long-term budgetary outcomes, CBO constructed alternative projections showing what would happen to the budget if those factors differed from the values used in the extended baseline.

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CBO makes baseline economic and budget projections covering the next 10 years and also the next 30 years. The projections incorporate the assumption that current laws generally do not change. To produce the 30-year economic projections, CBO uses its policy growth model, which relies on a standard economic framework that focuses on the inputs that drive growth in the supply side of the economy: the amount of labor, the productive services provided by capital, and total factor productivity. Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, and Jeffrey Werling, Assistant Director of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the 2019 Social Security Technical Panel.

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Presentation by Damien Moore, CBO’s Assistant Director for Financial Analysis, at the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics. The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) is a government-owned corporation responsible for insuring the benefits of 41 million people who participate in defined benefit pension plans provided by private employers. About 10 million of those participants are covered by plans offered by groups of employers; such plans are insured by PBGC’s multiemployer program. That program has drawn increased scrutiny from policymakers in recent years because of the high likelihood that it will not be able to meet all of its insurance obligations, potentially causing participants to lose insured benefits or putting pressure on the government to provide PBGC with greater federal resources. CBO has projected the claims on PBGC’s multiemployer program—which are likely to be relatively small in the coming decade but are projected to be much larger in the following decade—and has analyzed options for improving the program’s finances.

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Press Briefing on An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook

1. Congressional Budget Office An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024 Press Briefing Douglas W. Elmendorf Director August 27, 2014 For more details, see www.cbo.gov/publication/45653.

2. CBO Total Deficits or Surpluses

3. CBO Projected Outlays for Major Budget Categories

4. CBO Components of the Total Increase in Outlays in CBO’s Baseline Between 2014 and 2024

5. CBO Total Outlays and Revenues

6. CBO Federal Debt Held by the Public

7. CBO CBO’s Projections of Real GDP

8. CBO Unemployment Rate

9. CBO Measures of Wages and Salaries Paid to Employees

10. CBO GDP and Potential GDP

11. CBO Inflation

12. CBO Interest Rates on Treasury Securities