The document summarizes CBO's updated budget and economic projections from 2021 to 2031. It finds that primary deficits will hover around 2% of GDP through 2029, while net interest costs will rise from 1.3% in 2024 to 2.7% in 2031 due to mounting federal debt. The projected 2021 deficit has increased by a third due to recent legislation. Federal debt held by the public is projected to reach 106% of GDP by 2031, matching the previous peak in 1946. Outlays are projected to climb after 2024 as Social Security and healthcare costs rise along with interest rates, while revenues remain relatively flat, resulting in large deficits and rising debt levels.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
CBO makes baseline economic and budget projections covering the next 10 years and also the next 30 years. The projections incorporate the assumption that current laws generally do not change. To produce the 30-year economic projections, CBO uses its policy growth model, which relies on a standard economic framework that focuses on the inputs that drive growth in the supply side of the economy: the amount of labor, the productive services provided by capital, and total factor productivity.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, and Jeffrey Werling, Assistant Director of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the 2019 Social Security Technical Panel.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, to the National Conference of State Legislatures Base Camp.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
The Budget and Economic Outlook is one of the flagship publications of the Congressional Budget Office. The report provides economic and federal budget projections that incorporate the assumption that current laws governing federal spending and revenues generally remain in place. Those baseline projections cover the 10-year period used in the Congressional budget process. The report generally describes the differences between the current projections and previous ones; compares the economic forecast with those of other forecasters; and shows the budgetary impact of some alternative policy assumptions. This presentation describes how the report is produced and how it can be used for economic analysis, providing examples from the April 2018 edition.
Presentation by Jeffrey F. Werling, Assistant Director of CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, to the National Association of Forensic Economics, at the Southern Economic Association Annual Meetings, November 18, 2018.
In 2020, inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output this year to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. Continued strength in the demand for labor keeps the unemployment rate low and drives employment and wages higher. If current laws governing federal taxes and spending generally remained in place, the economy would expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent over the next decade, roughly the same rate as its potential growth.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the 35th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference.
Federal debt is already large, and budget deficits over the next decade and beyond are projected to keep pushing it up in relation to the size of the economy. Eventually, debt as a share of economic output would reach its highest level in our nation’s history.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
In 2020, CBO estimates a deficit of $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Under current law, the projected gap between outlays and revenues increases to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030. Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise over the coming decade, from 81 percent of GDP in 2020 to 98 percent of GDP in 2030. It continues to grow thereafter, in CBO’s projections, reaching 180 percent of GDP in 2050, well above the highest level ever recorded in the United States.
Presentation by Jeffrey Kling, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania’s Independent Fiscal Office. (Canceled due to inclement weather.)
The transparency of CBO’s work has always been a priority, and this year the agency has added and shifted resources to redouble its efforts in that area. CBO has three goals in being transparent:
1. CBO aims to enhance the credibility of its work by showing how it relies on data, professional research, and expert feedback.
2. CBO seeks to promote a thorough understanding of its analyses by sharing information in an accessible, clear, and detailed manner.
3. CBO wants to help people gauge how its estimates might change if policies or circumstances were different.
Financial regulation affects the federal budget directly through spending for programs that support the stability of financial institutions and through the taxes and fees that those institutions pay. Regulation also affects the budget indirectly through its effects on the economy. Those effects generate a trade-off: Increased financial regulation may lower the likelihood of a financial crisis and mitigate the severity of any crisis that occurred, but it may also raise the cost of financing for investments.
CBO projects that federal spending on the major health care programs would grow larger than spending in any other category if current laws generally remained unchanged. Spending on those programs would account for 40 percent of federal noninterest spending in 2047, compared with 28 percent today. Two factors explain the projected growth in spending on major health care programs: aging and rising health care costs per person (also known as excess cost growth).
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the Council for Affordable Health Coverage and the American Action Forum.
This presentation highlights laws that have been enacted to address a lapse in appropriations, CBO’s cost estimates for some recently proposed legislation that would provide spending authority during such a lapse, and other proposals introduced in the 116th Congress that would provide spending authority when there is a lapse in appropriations.
Presentation by Justin Riordan, an analyst in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, at the American Association of Budget and Policy Analysis Spring 2019 Symposium.
CBO makes baseline economic and budget projections covering the next 10 years and also the next 30 years. The projections incorporate the assumption that current laws generally do not change. To produce the 30-year economic projections, CBO uses its policy growth model, which relies on a standard economic framework that focuses on the inputs that drive growth in the supply side of the economy: the amount of labor, the productive services provided by capital, and total factor productivity.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, and Jeffrey Werling, Assistant Director of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the 2019 Social Security Technical Panel.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, to the National Conference of State Legislatures Base Camp.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
The Budget and Economic Outlook is one of the flagship publications of the Congressional Budget Office. The report provides economic and federal budget projections that incorporate the assumption that current laws governing federal spending and revenues generally remain in place. Those baseline projections cover the 10-year period used in the Congressional budget process. The report generally describes the differences between the current projections and previous ones; compares the economic forecast with those of other forecasters; and shows the budgetary impact of some alternative policy assumptions. This presentation describes how the report is produced and how it can be used for economic analysis, providing examples from the April 2018 edition.
Presentation by Jeffrey F. Werling, Assistant Director of CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, to the National Association of Forensic Economics, at the Southern Economic Association Annual Meetings, November 18, 2018.
In 2020, inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output this year to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. Continued strength in the demand for labor keeps the unemployment rate low and drives employment and wages higher. If current laws governing federal taxes and spending generally remained in place, the economy would expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent over the next decade, roughly the same rate as its potential growth.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the 35th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference.
Federal debt is already large, and budget deficits over the next decade and beyond are projected to keep pushing it up in relation to the size of the economy. Eventually, debt as a share of economic output would reach its highest level in our nation’s history.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
In 2020, CBO estimates a deficit of $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Under current law, the projected gap between outlays and revenues increases to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030. Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise over the coming decade, from 81 percent of GDP in 2020 to 98 percent of GDP in 2030. It continues to grow thereafter, in CBO’s projections, reaching 180 percent of GDP in 2050, well above the highest level ever recorded in the United States.
Presentation by Jeffrey Kling, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania’s Independent Fiscal Office. (Canceled due to inclement weather.)
The transparency of CBO’s work has always been a priority, and this year the agency has added and shifted resources to redouble its efforts in that area. CBO has three goals in being transparent:
1. CBO aims to enhance the credibility of its work by showing how it relies on data, professional research, and expert feedback.
2. CBO seeks to promote a thorough understanding of its analyses by sharing information in an accessible, clear, and detailed manner.
3. CBO wants to help people gauge how its estimates might change if policies or circumstances were different.
Financial regulation affects the federal budget directly through spending for programs that support the stability of financial institutions and through the taxes and fees that those institutions pay. Regulation also affects the budget indirectly through its effects on the economy. Those effects generate a trade-off: Increased financial regulation may lower the likelihood of a financial crisis and mitigate the severity of any crisis that occurred, but it may also raise the cost of financing for investments.
CBO projects that federal spending on the major health care programs would grow larger than spending in any other category if current laws generally remained unchanged. Spending on those programs would account for 40 percent of federal noninterest spending in 2047, compared with 28 percent today. Two factors explain the projected growth in spending on major health care programs: aging and rising health care costs per person (also known as excess cost growth).
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the Council for Affordable Health Coverage and the American Action Forum.
This presentation highlights laws that have been enacted to address a lapse in appropriations, CBO’s cost estimates for some recently proposed legislation that would provide spending authority during such a lapse, and other proposals introduced in the 116th Congress that would provide spending authority when there is a lapse in appropriations.
Presentation by Justin Riordan, an analyst in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, at the American Association of Budget and Policy Analysis Spring 2019 Symposium.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Robert Arnold, and Joshua Shakin, CBO Unit Chiefs, at a joint seminar by CBO and the Congressional Research Service.
The federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2014 will
amount to $506 billion, CBO estimates, roughly
$170 billion lower than the shortfall recorded in 2013.
At 2.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), this
year’s deficit will be much smaller than those of recent years (which reached almost 10 percent of GDP in 2009) and slightly below the average of federal deficits over the past 40 years.
CBO projects a 2019 deficit of $897 billion, equaling 4.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The projected shortfall (adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of certain payments) grows to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2029. Federal debt held by the public is projected to reach $16.6 trillion at the end of 2019. That amount would equal 78 percent of GDP—nearly twice its average over the past 50 years. Debt is estimated to reach $28.7 trillion, or 93 percent of GDP, by 2029, a larger amount than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2029, reaching about 150 percent of GDP by 2049.
In CBO’s projections, economic output is expected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019, supporting strong labor market conditions that feature low unemployment and rising wages. After 2019, economic growth averages 1.8 percent per year, which is less than the historical average.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit for 2019 will be $960 billion. Under current law, budget deficits are projected to average $1.2 trillion a year between 2020 and 2029, boosting debt held by the public to 95 percent of GDP in that year—its highest level since just after World War II.
Presentation by Jared Jageler, David Adler, Noelia Duchovny, and Evan Herrnstadt, analysts in CBO’s Microeconomic Studies and Health Analysis Divisions, at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Summer Conference.
Presentation by Mark Hadley, CBO's Chief Operating Officer and General Counsel, at the 2nd NABO-OECD Annual Conference of Asian Parliamentary Budget Officials.
Presentation by Daria Pelech, an analyst in CBO’s Health Analysis Division, at the Center for Health Insurance Reform McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University.
This slide deck highlights CBO’s key findings about the outlook for the economy as described in its new report, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034.
Presentation by CBO analysts Rebecca Heller, Shannon Mok, and James Pearce, and Census Bureau research economist Jonathan Rothbaum at the American Economic Association Annual Meeting, Committee on Economic Statistics.
Presentation by Eric J. Labs, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Bank of America 2024 Defense Outlook and Commercial Aerospace Forum.
Presentation by Elizabeth Ash, William Carrington, Rebecca Heller, and Grace Hwang of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis and Health Analysis divisions to the Children’s Health Group, American Academy of Pediatrics.
Presentation by Molly Dahl, Chief of CBO’s Long-Term Analysis Unit, at a meeting of the National Conference of State Legislatures’ Budget Working Group.
In the President’s 2024 budget request, total military compensation is $551 billion, including veterans' benefits. That amount represents an increase of 134 percent since 1999 after removing the effects of inflation.
Canadian Immigration Tracker March 2024 - Key SlidesAndrew Griffith
Highlights
Permanent Residents decrease along with percentage of TR2PR decline to 52 percent of all Permanent Residents.
March asylum claim data not issued as of May 27 (unusually late). Irregular arrivals remain very small.
Study permit applications experiencing sharp decrease as a result of announced caps over 50 percent compared to February.
Citizenship numbers remain stable.
Slide 3 has the overall numbers and change.
This session provides a comprehensive overview of the latest updates to the Uniform Administrative Requirements, Cost Principles, and Audit Requirements for Federal Awards (commonly known as the Uniform Guidance) outlined in the 2 CFR 200.
With a focus on the 2024 revisions issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), participants will gain insight into the key changes affecting federal grant recipients. The session will delve into critical regulatory updates, providing attendees with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate and comply with the evolving landscape of federal grant management.
Learning Objectives:
- Understand the rationale behind the 2024 updates to the Uniform Guidance outlined in 2 CFR 200, and their implications for federal grant recipients.
- Identify the key changes and revisions introduced by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the 2024 edition of 2 CFR 200.
- Gain proficiency in applying the updated regulations to ensure compliance with federal grant requirements and avoid potential audit findings.
- Develop strategies for effectively implementing the new guidelines within the grant management processes of their respective organizations, fostering efficiency and accountability in federal grant administration.
What is the point of small housing associations.pptxPaul Smith
Given the small scale of housing associations and their relative high cost per home what is the point of them and how do we justify their continued existance
Understanding the Challenges of Street ChildrenSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
Up the Ratios Bylaws - a Comprehensive Process of Our Organizationuptheratios
Up the Ratios is a non-profit organization dedicated to bridging the gap in STEM education for underprivileged students by providing free, high-quality learning opportunities in robotics and other STEM fields. Our mission is to empower the next generation of innovators, thinkers, and problem-solvers by offering a range of educational programs that foster curiosity, creativity, and critical thinking.
At Up the Ratios, we believe that every student, regardless of their socio-economic background, should have access to the tools and knowledge needed to succeed in today's technology-driven world. To achieve this, we host a variety of free classes, workshops, summer camps, and live lectures tailored to students from underserved communities. Our programs are designed to be engaging and hands-on, allowing students to explore the exciting world of robotics and STEM through practical, real-world applications.
Our free classes cover fundamental concepts in robotics, coding, and engineering, providing students with a strong foundation in these critical areas. Through our interactive workshops, students can dive deeper into specific topics, working on projects that challenge them to apply what they've learned and think creatively. Our summer camps offer an immersive experience where students can collaborate on larger projects, develop their teamwork skills, and gain confidence in their abilities.
In addition to our local programs, Up the Ratios is committed to making a global impact. We take donations of new and gently used robotics parts, which we then distribute to students and educational institutions in other countries. These donations help ensure that young learners worldwide have the resources they need to explore and excel in STEM fields. By supporting education in this way, we aim to nurture a global community of future leaders and innovators.
Our live lectures feature guest speakers from various STEM disciplines, including engineers, scientists, and industry professionals who share their knowledge and experiences with our students. These lectures provide valuable insights into potential career paths and inspire students to pursue their passions in STEM.
Up the Ratios relies on the generosity of donors and volunteers to continue our work. Contributions of time, expertise, and financial support are crucial to sustaining our programs and expanding our reach. Whether you're an individual passionate about education, a professional in the STEM field, or a company looking to give back to the community, there are many ways to get involved and make a difference.
We are proud of the positive impact we've had on the lives of countless students, many of whom have gone on to pursue higher education and careers in STEM. By providing these young minds with the tools and opportunities they need to succeed, we are not only changing their futures but also contributing to the advancement of technology and innovation on a broader scale.
Many ways to support street children.pptxSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
A process server is a authorized person for delivering legal documents, such as summons, complaints, subpoenas, and other court papers, to peoples involved in legal proceedings.
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
PNRR MADRID GREENTECH FOR BROWN NETWORKS NETWORKS MUR_MUSA_TEBALDI.pdf
CBO’s Updated Budget and Economic Projections
1. Presentation to the American Council for Capital Formation
July 15, 2021
Phillip L. Swagel
Director
CBO’s Updated Budget and
Economic Projections
For more information about this presentation, see Congressional Budget Office, An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 (July 2021),
www.cbo.gov/publication/57218. For information about the host, see https://accf.org.
2. 1
GDP = gross domestic product.
Total Deficits, Primary Deficits, and Net Interest
In CBO’s projections,
primary deficits (which
exclude net interest
costs) hover at about
2 percent of GDP from
2023 to 2029 and
increase to 3 percent in
the years that follow.
Despite mounting federal
debt, low interest rates
hold down interest
payments through 2023.
Net interest costs then
increase in relation to the
size of the economy—
from 1.3 percent of GDP
in 2024 to 2.7 percent of
GDP in 2031.
3. 2
Changes in CBO’s Baseline Projections of the Deficit
Since February 2021
The projected deficit for
2021 has increased by a
third, mostly because of
recently enacted
legislation.
4. 3
Changes in CBO’s Baseline Projections of the Deficit
Since February 2021 (Continued)
The projected cumulative
deficit for the 2022–2031
period is slightly smaller
than it was in CBO’s
February baseline;
updates to projections of
revenues and mandatory
outlays were largely
offsetting.
5. 4
Federal Debt Held by the Public, 1940 to 2031
At the end of 2031, debt
is projected to reach
106 percent of GDP,
matching the previous
peak, recorded in 1946.
6. 5
Total Outlays and Revenues
Boosted by increased
spending for Social
Security and the major
health care programs
and by rising interest
rates on federal debt,
outlays climb steadily
after 2024 in CBO’s
projections. The wider-
than-average gap
between outlays and
revenues results in large
deficits and rising debt.
7. 6
The Relationship Between GDP and Potential GDP
The annual growth of
real (inflation-adjusted)
GDP exceeds that of real
potential GDP until 2023
in CBO’s projections.
That growth slows
thereafter as real GDP
returns to its long-term
relationship with potential
GDP.
8. 7
Real GDP per Potential Worker Across Business Cycles
The pandemic-induced
recession was much
sharper and more severe
than any recession in
recent history, but the
recovery has also been
unusually strong. In CBO’s
projections, real GDP per
potential worker grows
more quickly from its level
at the previous business
cycle peak than it has
during most economic
recoveries and expansions
since World War II.
9. 8
Unemployment
The unemployment rate
is projected to decline
through the remainder of
2021 and the first half of
2022 before returning to
its long-term relationship
with the noncyclical rate
of unemployment.
10. 9
PCE = personal consumption expenditures.
Inflation
After spiking in 2021 and
falling in 2022, inflation
increases in 2023 and
remains slightly above
the Federal Reserve’s
long-run goal of
2 percent for several
years.
11. 10
Interest Rates
The interest rate on 3-
month Treasury bills
remains near zero
through early 2023 and
then gradually rises as
the Federal Reserve
raises the federal funds
rate. The interest rate on
10-year Treasury notes
increases through 2023
but at a slower pace than
it did in the first few
months of 2021.
12. 11
Composition of the Growth of Real Potential GDP
From 2026 to 2031, real
potential GDP grows at
roughly the same rate as
it has since the 2007–
2009 recession in CBO’s
projections because of
faster growth in potential
labor force productivity.
However, growth in the
potential labor force is
projected to be slower
than it was in previous
periods, largely because
of the aging of the
population.