CBO analyzes how climate change and climate policy affect the US economy and federal budget. It projects that climate change will gradually reduce real GDP growth and lower GDP by 1% in 2050 versus no climate change. It estimates effects on growth from changes in weather patterns and increased hurricane damage. A $25/ton carbon tax, rising 2% annually, would reduce greenhouse gas emissions while raising $66 billion initially, growing to $127 billion in revenues by 2028.
The Budget and Economic Outlook is one of the flagship publications of the Congressional Budget Office. The report provides economic and federal budget projections that incorporate the assumption that current laws governing federal spending and revenues generally remain in place. Those baseline projections cover the 10-year period used in the Congressional budget process. The report generally describes the differences between the current projections and previous ones; compares the economic forecast with those of other forecasters; and shows the budgetary impact of some alternative policy assumptions. This presentation describes how the report is produced and how it can be used for economic analysis, providing examples from the April 2018 edition.
Presentation by Jeffrey F. Werling, Assistant Director of CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, to the National Association of Forensic Economics, at the Southern Economic Association Annual Meetings, November 18, 2018.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the 35th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference.
Federal debt is already large, and budget deficits over the next decade and beyond are projected to keep pushing it up in relation to the size of the economy. Eventually, debt as a share of economic output would reach its highest level in our nation’s history.
Presentation by Jeffrey Kling, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania’s Independent Fiscal Office. (Canceled due to inclement weather.)
The transparency of CBO’s work has always been a priority, and this year the agency has added and shifted resources to redouble its efforts in that area. CBO has three goals in being transparent:
1. CBO aims to enhance the credibility of its work by showing how it relies on data, professional research, and expert feedback.
2. CBO seeks to promote a thorough understanding of its analyses by sharing information in an accessible, clear, and detailed manner.
3. CBO wants to help people gauge how its estimates might change if policies or circumstances were different.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
The Budget and Economic Outlook is one of the flagship publications of the Congressional Budget Office. The report provides economic and federal budget projections that incorporate the assumption that current laws governing federal spending and revenues generally remain in place. Those baseline projections cover the 10-year period used in the Congressional budget process. The report generally describes the differences between the current projections and previous ones; compares the economic forecast with those of other forecasters; and shows the budgetary impact of some alternative policy assumptions. This presentation describes how the report is produced and how it can be used for economic analysis, providing examples from the April 2018 edition.
Presentation by Jeffrey F. Werling, Assistant Director of CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, to the National Association of Forensic Economics, at the Southern Economic Association Annual Meetings, November 18, 2018.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the 35th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference.
Federal debt is already large, and budget deficits over the next decade and beyond are projected to keep pushing it up in relation to the size of the economy. Eventually, debt as a share of economic output would reach its highest level in our nation’s history.
Presentation by Jeffrey Kling, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania’s Independent Fiscal Office. (Canceled due to inclement weather.)
The transparency of CBO’s work has always been a priority, and this year the agency has added and shifted resources to redouble its efforts in that area. CBO has three goals in being transparent:
1. CBO aims to enhance the credibility of its work by showing how it relies on data, professional research, and expert feedback.
2. CBO seeks to promote a thorough understanding of its analyses by sharing information in an accessible, clear, and detailed manner.
3. CBO wants to help people gauge how its estimates might change if policies or circumstances were different.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, to the National Conference of State Legislatures Base Camp.
Financial regulation affects the federal budget directly through spending for programs that support the stability of financial institutions and through the taxes and fees that those institutions pay. Regulation also affects the budget indirectly through its effects on the economy. Those effects generate a trade-off: Increased financial regulation may lower the likelihood of a financial crisis and mitigate the severity of any crisis that occurred, but it may also raise the cost of financing for investments.
CBO estimates that expected annual economic losses total $54 billion (adjusted to remove the effects of inflation) for most types of damage caused by storm surges, hurricane winds, and heavy precipitation. Expected annual federal spending in response to hurricane winds and storm-related flooding totals $17 billion.
Presentation by Terry Dinan (from CBO's Microeconomic Studies Division) at a Congressional Research Service seminar.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
This presentation highlights laws that have been enacted to address a lapse in appropriations, CBO’s cost estimates for some recently proposed legislation that would provide spending authority during such a lapse, and other proposals introduced in the 116th Congress that would provide spending authority when there is a lapse in appropriations.
Presentation by Justin Riordan, an analyst in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, at the American Association of Budget and Policy Analysis Spring 2019 Symposium.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
CBO projects that federal revenues will increase by 3 percent of GDP over the next 30 years. Real bracket creep—when people’s income rises faster than the tax brackets and other elements of the tax system—accounts for about half of that increase.
Appropriation acts provide authority for federal programs or agencies to incur obligations and make payments. When appropriations lapse, the result is what is commonly called a government shutdown. This presentation briefly describes various legislative proposals related to a shutdown, such as a recently enacted law that pays furloughed federal workers once a shutdown ends and a proposed bill that would keep funding government operations at their current rate during a shutdown.
CBO projects that federal spending on the major health care programs would grow larger than spending in any other category if current laws generally remained unchanged. Spending on those programs would account for 40 percent of federal noninterest spending in 2047, compared with 28 percent today. Two factors explain the projected growth in spending on major health care programs: aging and rising health care costs per person (also known as excess cost growth).
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the Council for Affordable Health Coverage and the American Action Forum.
CBO makes baseline economic and budget projections covering the next 10 years and also the next 30 years. The projections incorporate the assumption that current laws generally do not change. To produce the 30-year economic projections, CBO uses its policy growth model, which relies on a standard economic framework that focuses on the inputs that drive growth in the supply side of the economy: the amount of labor, the productive services provided by capital, and total factor productivity.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, and Jeffrey Werling, Assistant Director of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the 2019 Social Security Technical Panel.
If current laws governing taxes and spending did not change, the condition of the federal budget would worsen considerably over the next three decades. Growth in federal spending would continue to outpace growth in federal revenues, leading to ever-larger budget deficits.
CBO projects that federal spending on the major health care programs would grow larger than spending in any other category if current laws generally remained unchanged. Driven particularly by growth in Medicare outlays, spending on those programs would account for 40 percent of federal noninterest spending in 2047, compared with 28 percent today. Two factors explain the projected growth in spending on major health care programs: aging of the population and rising health care costs per person (that is, excess cost growth).
Presentation by Jessica Banthin, Deputy Assistant Director in CBO’s Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division, at a conference organized by the Center for Sustainable Health Spending.
Presentation by Nicholas Chase, a Unit Chief in CBO’s Microeconomic Studies Division, to the Department of Energy and the United States Energy Association, Workshop on Macroeconomic Effects of a Low-Carbon Transition.
Presentation by Joseph Kile, CBO’s Director of Microeconomic Analysis, to the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Roundtable on Macroeconomic and Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, to the National Conference of State Legislatures Base Camp.
Financial regulation affects the federal budget directly through spending for programs that support the stability of financial institutions and through the taxes and fees that those institutions pay. Regulation also affects the budget indirectly through its effects on the economy. Those effects generate a trade-off: Increased financial regulation may lower the likelihood of a financial crisis and mitigate the severity of any crisis that occurred, but it may also raise the cost of financing for investments.
CBO estimates that expected annual economic losses total $54 billion (adjusted to remove the effects of inflation) for most types of damage caused by storm surges, hurricane winds, and heavy precipitation. Expected annual federal spending in response to hurricane winds and storm-related flooding totals $17 billion.
Presentation by Terry Dinan (from CBO's Microeconomic Studies Division) at a Congressional Research Service seminar.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
This presentation highlights laws that have been enacted to address a lapse in appropriations, CBO’s cost estimates for some recently proposed legislation that would provide spending authority during such a lapse, and other proposals introduced in the 116th Congress that would provide spending authority when there is a lapse in appropriations.
Presentation by Justin Riordan, an analyst in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, at the American Association of Budget and Policy Analysis Spring 2019 Symposium.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
CBO projects that federal revenues will increase by 3 percent of GDP over the next 30 years. Real bracket creep—when people’s income rises faster than the tax brackets and other elements of the tax system—accounts for about half of that increase.
Appropriation acts provide authority for federal programs or agencies to incur obligations and make payments. When appropriations lapse, the result is what is commonly called a government shutdown. This presentation briefly describes various legislative proposals related to a shutdown, such as a recently enacted law that pays furloughed federal workers once a shutdown ends and a proposed bill that would keep funding government operations at their current rate during a shutdown.
CBO projects that federal spending on the major health care programs would grow larger than spending in any other category if current laws generally remained unchanged. Spending on those programs would account for 40 percent of federal noninterest spending in 2047, compared with 28 percent today. Two factors explain the projected growth in spending on major health care programs: aging and rising health care costs per person (also known as excess cost growth).
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the Council for Affordable Health Coverage and the American Action Forum.
CBO makes baseline economic and budget projections covering the next 10 years and also the next 30 years. The projections incorporate the assumption that current laws generally do not change. To produce the 30-year economic projections, CBO uses its policy growth model, which relies on a standard economic framework that focuses on the inputs that drive growth in the supply side of the economy: the amount of labor, the productive services provided by capital, and total factor productivity.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, and Jeffrey Werling, Assistant Director of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the 2019 Social Security Technical Panel.
If current laws governing taxes and spending did not change, the condition of the federal budget would worsen considerably over the next three decades. Growth in federal spending would continue to outpace growth in federal revenues, leading to ever-larger budget deficits.
CBO projects that federal spending on the major health care programs would grow larger than spending in any other category if current laws generally remained unchanged. Driven particularly by growth in Medicare outlays, spending on those programs would account for 40 percent of federal noninterest spending in 2047, compared with 28 percent today. Two factors explain the projected growth in spending on major health care programs: aging of the population and rising health care costs per person (that is, excess cost growth).
Presentation by Jessica Banthin, Deputy Assistant Director in CBO’s Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division, at a conference organized by the Center for Sustainable Health Spending.
Presentation by Nicholas Chase, a Unit Chief in CBO’s Microeconomic Studies Division, to the Department of Energy and the United States Energy Association, Workshop on Macroeconomic Effects of a Low-Carbon Transition.
Presentation by Joseph Kile, CBO’s Director of Microeconomic Analysis, to the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Roundtable on Macroeconomic and Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities.
Presentation by Molly Dahl, CBO’s Long-Term Analysis Unit Chief, at the American Enterprise Institute’s panel discussion “Methodologies in Fiscal, Economic, and Health Spending Projections.”
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Seminar on Forecasting at George Washington University.
Under current law, CBO projects that economic activity will expand at a modest pace this year and then grow more slowly in subsequent years.
OECD Green Talks LIVE - Investing in Climate, Investing in GrowthOECD Environment
The OECD report "Investing in Climate, Investing in Growth" shows that integrating measures to tackle climate change into regular economic policy will have a positive impact on economic growth over the medium and long term. A climate-friendly policy package can increase long-run output by up to 2.8% on average across the G20 by 2050 and if avoided climate damage are also taken into account, this rises to nearly 5%.
On 22 June 2017, OECD Environment Director Simon Upton presented key findings from the report during a Green Talks LIVE webinar.
Financial regulation affects the federal budget directly through spending for programs that support the stability of financial institutions and through the taxes and fees that those institutions pay. Regulation also affects the budget indirectly through its effects on the economy. Those effects generate a trade-off: Increased financial regulation may lower the likelihood of a financial crisis and mitigate the severity of any crisis that occurred, but it may also raise the cost of financing for investments.
This presentation highlights three illustrative polices from CBO’s report Financial Regulation and the Federal Budget and finds that the largest budgetary effects of implementing them would stem from macroeconomic feedback.
Obama Administration vs CBO fiscal forecastGaetan Lion
This presentation reviews the fiscal forecast from the Obama Administration released within the "A New Era of Responsibility" in February of 2009 and the related CBO analysis released in March of 2009.
This presentation provides an overview of the agency’s most recent budget and economic projections, which incorporate the assumption that current laws governing taxes and spending generally remain unchanged. In those projections, federal debt held by the public grows sharply over the next 30 years, reaching unprecedented levels. The presentation also includes a discussion of the effects of the 2017 tax act and recent changes to federal spending policy on the projections. In addition, the presentation touches on budgetary outcomes under scenarios that include future changes to current law.
Presentation by John McClelland, CBO’s Assistant Director for Tax Analysis, at the International Tax Policy Forum.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Robert Arnold, and Joshua Shakin, CBO Unit Chiefs, at a joint seminar by CBO and the Congressional Research Service.
This presentation provides an overview of the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent budget and economic projections, which were published on January 28. In those projections, the federal budget deficit is about $900 billion in 2019 and exceeds $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 93 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2029.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019—down from 3.1 percent in 2018—as the effects of the 2017 tax act on the growth of business investment wane and federal purchases decline sharply in the fourth quarter of the year. Economic growth is projected to slow to an average of 1.7 percent through 2023 and to average 1.8 percent from 2024 to 2029.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, Robert Arnold, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, and Joshua Shakin, Chief of the Revenue Estimating Unit in CBO’s Tax Analysis Division, at a joint seminar with the Congressional Research Service.
Presentation by Ben Page, CBO's Fiscal Policy Studies Unit Chief, at the National Tax Association 108th Annual Conference on Taxation.
CBO’s long-term budget projections generally reflect current law and estimates of future economic conditions and demographic trends. Those projections depend on estimates of the future paths of mortality rates, productivity, interest rates, and health care costs, among many other variables. To illustrate some of the uncertainty about long-term budgetary outcomes, CBO constructed alternative projections showing what would happen to the budget if those factors differed from the values used in the extended baseline.
Presentation by Jared Jageler, David Adler, Noelia Duchovny, and Evan Herrnstadt, analysts in CBO’s Microeconomic Studies and Health Analysis Divisions, at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Summer Conference.
Presentation by Mark Hadley, CBO's Chief Operating Officer and General Counsel, at the 2nd NABO-OECD Annual Conference of Asian Parliamentary Budget Officials.
Presentation by Daria Pelech, an analyst in CBO’s Health Analysis Division, at the Center for Health Insurance Reform McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University.
This slide deck highlights CBO’s key findings about the outlook for the economy as described in its new report, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034.
Presentation by CBO analysts Rebecca Heller, Shannon Mok, and James Pearce, and Census Bureau research economist Jonathan Rothbaum at the American Economic Association Annual Meeting, Committee on Economic Statistics.
Presentation by Eric J. Labs, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Bank of America 2024 Defense Outlook and Commercial Aerospace Forum.
Presentation by Elizabeth Ash, William Carrington, Rebecca Heller, and Grace Hwang of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis and Health Analysis divisions to the Children’s Health Group, American Academy of Pediatrics.
Presentation by Molly Dahl, Chief of CBO’s Long-Term Analysis Unit, at a meeting of the National Conference of State Legislatures’ Budget Working Group.
In the President’s 2024 budget request, total military compensation is $551 billion, including veterans' benefits. That amount represents an increase of 134 percent since 1999 after removing the effects of inflation.
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
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Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
Understanding the Challenges of Street ChildrenSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
1. Congressional Budget Office
EY Corporate Carbon Forum
November 12, 2020
Phillip L. Swagel
Director
An Overview of CBO’s Work on
Climate Change
2. 1
CBO
How does climate change affect CBO’s forecast of economic output?
How would a tax on greenhouse gases affect emissions and government
revenues?
How would the burden of a tax on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions be
distributed?
How do climate change and climate change policy interact with the
federal budget?
Questions That CBO Is Addressing About the Economic and Fiscal
Effects of Climate Change and Climate Policy
4. 3
CBO
Climate change has many effects on the U.S. economy that are expected to
reduce the growth of gross domestic product (GDP), on net.
Before publishing The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook, CBO used a long-term
forecasting approach that accounted for the future effects of climate change on
GDP by carrying forward trends in economic measures that were influenced by
climate change.
Recent research suggests that the effects of climate change on GDP growth will
increase over time, indicating that CBO’s past approach would underestimate
future effects.
Why Project the Effects of Climate Change on GDP Growth?
5. 4
CBO
CBO projects how real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth would be affected by:
Projected changes in average weather patterns (temperature and precipitation)
and
Projected increases in expected hurricane damage.
CBO separately identifies:
The continuation of recent effects of climate change on economic growth rates
(the amount previously incorporated in the agency’s baseline projections) and
Projected additional future effects on growth.
CBO projects that because of climate change, real GDP will grow more slowly
each year than it would have under the climate of the late 20th century,
accumulating to a 1.0 percent reduction in the projected level of real GDP in
2050.
What Is Different in The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook?
6. 5
CBO
The Studies
The studies estimate the historical
relationship between temperature and
precipitation and economic output, using
panel econometric methods.
They use regional data from the United
States.
Overview of CBO’s Approach
For a given climate change scenario:
– CBO applies each of the econometric
estimates of the relationship between
weather and output to project changes
in economic growth.
– Then CBO runs a meta-analysis to
compute a single estimated growth
effect for that climate scenario.
Using that array of results, CBO projects
the growth effect associated with the
agency’s central climate change scenario.
CBO Has Drawn on Four Econometric Studies to Estimate the
Effects of Weather Patterns on Real GDP Growth
7. 6
CBO
Source of figure: Congressional Budget Office, using analysis from Solomon Hsiang and others, “Estimating Economic Damage From Climate Change in the United States,” Science,
vol. 356, no. 6345 (June 30, 2017), Figure S17A, pp. 1362–1369, https:/doi.org/10.1126/science.aal4369.
A 2016 report by CBO projected the effects of
climate change on expected hurricane
damage in 2050 on the basis of:
An insurance industry model of damages
and
Climate scientists’ projections of sea level
rise and changes in hurricanes’ frequency
and intensity.
CBO has combined the 2050 projection with
an impulse response function from a
computable general equilibrium model, which
translates the direct hurricane damage into
effects on GDP in future years.
CBO Has Drawn on Its Previous Work to Estimate the Effects of
Hurricane Damage on Real GDP Growth
Change in Real GDP per Dollar of Hurricane Damage in Year Zero
Dollars
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Years Since Hurricane Damage
8. 7
CBO
Source of figure: Evan Herrnstadt and Terry Dinan, CBO’s Projection of the Effect of Climate Change on U.S. Economic Output, Working Paper 2020-06 (Congressional Budget
Office, September 2020), www.cbo.gov/publication/56505.
In CBO’s projections, the average growth
rate of real GDP is 0.03 percentage points
lower from 2020 to 2050 than it would
have been under the climate of the late
20th century.
Of that amount, 0.01 percentage point
was already included in CBO’s earlier
projections, which used the previous
method.
The effect on growth accumulates to the
previously mentioned 1.0 percent
reduction in the level of real GDP in 2050.
CBO’s Projections of the Effects of Changes in Weather and
Increases in Hurricane Damage on Real GDP
How Climate Change Is Expected to Change the Level of Real GDP in 2050
Percentage of Real GDP
9. 8
CBO
CBO’s Estimate of Forgone GDP
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Percentage of Real GDP
10. 9
CBO
How CBO Used Studies of Weather Patterns and Output in Its
Projection
Data source
Econometric model
Weather-output
relationship
Climate change
scenario
Time horizon
Additional
modeling
assumptions
Projected effect
of changes in
weather patterns
on economic
output
11. 10
CBO
How Would a Tax on Greenhouse
Gases Affect Emissions and
Government Revenues?
12. 11
CBO
See Congressional Budget Office, Options for Reducing the Deficit: 2019 to 2028 (December 2018), www.cbo.gov/publication/54667. GHG = greenhouse gas.
Changes in Revenues and Emissions From a Tax on Greenhouse
Gases That Starts at $25 Per Ton and Rises at a Real Rate of
2 Percent per Year
Projected Values
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Tax on GHG Emissions
(Nominal dollars per
metric ton of carbon
dioxide equivalent) 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 33 35 36
Total Covered Baseline
GHG Emissions
(Millions of metric tons
of carbon dioxide
equivalent) 5,456 5,418 5,373 5,330 5,324 5,336 5,334 5,335 5,332 5,331
Total Covered GHG
Emissions Under the
Option (Millions of
metric tons of carbon
dioxide equivalent) 5,214 5,152 5,073 4,992 4,945 4,919 4,876 4,835 4,791 4,748
Change in Fiscal Year
Revenues (Billions of
nominal dollars) 66a 103 106 108 111 115 119 120 123 127
13. 12
CBO
See Congressional Budget Office, Options for Reducing the Deficit: 2019 to 2028 (December 2018), www.cbo.gov/publication/54667. M MT CO2e = millions of metric tons of carbon
dioxide equivalent.
Reduction in Emissions From a Tax on Greenhouse Gases That
Starts at $25 per Ton and Rises at a Real Rate of 2 Percent per
Year
Emissions
Under the
Option
Baseline
Emissions
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2019 2028
M MT CO2e Electricity
2019 2028
Transportation
2019 2028
Other