The quarterly CFO Survey is firmly established with media and policy makers as the authoritative barometer of UK corporates’ sentiment and strategies. It is the only survey of major corporate users of capital that gauges attitudes to valuations, risk and financing.
Rarely has there been more uncertainty regarding the course of the public finances over the next five years. In this note we aim to answer some of the big questions for the economy in light of the 2021 budget.
Rarely has there been more uncertainty regarding the course of the public finances over the next five years. In this note we aim to answer some of the big questions for the economy in light of the 2021 budget.
1. Global slowdown underway
2. Impact of trade tensions greater and more prolonged than expected
3. Exports, manufacturing and investment worst hit
4. Central banks have responded with rate cuts and QE
5. Monetary easing has supported equities, recovering after a sell off in August
6. Consumers remain key driver of activity
7. Slow growth to continue, risks tilted to the downside
UK corporate environment - November 2019Deloitte UK
1. Macro environment - Global economy set to grow at slowest pace since 2010 this year, and remain below trend in 2020. UK growth to remain soft this year and next. Brexit and geopolitical uncertainty loom large.
2. Momentum – UK avoided recession in Q3, business investment declining, manufacturing activity soft, household spending holding up but slowing.
3. Operating costs – cost pressures due to tight labour market but may loosen as firms pull back on hiring. Commodity prices and rental values soft. Credit conditions expected to tighten.
4. Corporate stance – risk appetite near lowest level since 2008, focus on cost reduction, deleveraging and increasing cash flow.
5. Balance sheet – cash rich, credit still relatively cheap and easily available but signs of tightening, profits falling.
6. Risks – effects of Brexit and weak domestic demand, rising global geopolitical risk and protectionism also a worry for large UK corporates.
1. Global activity continues to ease
2. Significant slowdown in euro area
3. Trade tensions have hit export-reliant economies
4. Rate expectations pushed back as central banks make dovish statements
5. Equities sold off in May with investors switching to bonds
6. 2020 UK growth heavily dependent on Brexit settlement
7. Risks to global growth tilted to the downside
The quarterly CFO Survey is firmly established with media and policy makers as the authoritative barometer of UK corporates’ sentiment and strategies. It is the only survey of major corporate users of capital that gauges attitudes to valuations, risk and financing.
Rarely has there been more uncertainty regarding the course of the public finances over the next five years. In this note we aim to answer some of the big questions for the economy in light of the 2021 budget.
Rarely has there been more uncertainty regarding the course of the public finances over the next five years. In this note we aim to answer some of the big questions for the economy in light of the 2021 budget.
1. Global slowdown underway
2. Impact of trade tensions greater and more prolonged than expected
3. Exports, manufacturing and investment worst hit
4. Central banks have responded with rate cuts and QE
5. Monetary easing has supported equities, recovering after a sell off in August
6. Consumers remain key driver of activity
7. Slow growth to continue, risks tilted to the downside
UK corporate environment - November 2019Deloitte UK
1. Macro environment - Global economy set to grow at slowest pace since 2010 this year, and remain below trend in 2020. UK growth to remain soft this year and next. Brexit and geopolitical uncertainty loom large.
2. Momentum – UK avoided recession in Q3, business investment declining, manufacturing activity soft, household spending holding up but slowing.
3. Operating costs – cost pressures due to tight labour market but may loosen as firms pull back on hiring. Commodity prices and rental values soft. Credit conditions expected to tighten.
4. Corporate stance – risk appetite near lowest level since 2008, focus on cost reduction, deleveraging and increasing cash flow.
5. Balance sheet – cash rich, credit still relatively cheap and easily available but signs of tightening, profits falling.
6. Risks – effects of Brexit and weak domestic demand, rising global geopolitical risk and protectionism also a worry for large UK corporates.
1. Global activity continues to ease
2. Significant slowdown in euro area
3. Trade tensions have hit export-reliant economies
4. Rate expectations pushed back as central banks make dovish statements
5. Equities sold off in May with investors switching to bonds
6. 2020 UK growth heavily dependent on Brexit settlement
7. Risks to global growth tilted to the downside
1. Macro environment - Global growth slowing, particularly in Europe. UK growth expected to be 1.2% this year but Brexit risks loom large.
2. Momentum - business investment declining, household spending holding up on strong wage growth.
3. Operating costs – expected to rise due to tight labour market, wage growth close to a 11-year high. Commodity prices up 12.5% ytd.
4. Corporate stance – risk appetite lowest since 2008, focus on cost reduction and increasing cash flow.
5. Balance sheet – cash rich, credit cheap and easily available, pockets of debt risk in ‘cov-lite’ sectors, profits falling.
6. Risks – effects of Brexit and weak domestic demand, rising global geopolitical risk and protectionism also a worry for large UK corporates.
Deloitte UK State of the State Report 2016-17Deloitte UK
This year’s State of the State finds the UK Government moving from an era of challenge around one objective – eliminating the budget deficit – into an era of multiple and complex challenges. The next five years will see additional demands on the public sector as it manages the UK’s departure from the EU, continues to drive major reforms and maintains business as usual.
UK government is in the middle of a decade-long recalibration as the public sector aligns to a lower level of public spending. While the first half of this decade has been characterised by austerity and cost reduction, the next half should focus on aspiration and redesign as public sector leaders across the UK shape a more focused state.
On 21 September 2018, Scope affirmed the US sovereign rating at AA/ Stable. What are the factors which contribute to the United States losing its AAA rating?
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Construction and Building Materials | Q1 2020 |...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Construction Industry newsletter provides a broad range of specialized valuation and transaction advisory services to the construction industry, including residential, commercial, civil, paving, concrete, and more. Each issue includes a segment focus, market overview, mergers and acquisitions review, and more.
Policy Uncertainty Increased by Abbott’s Ouster - Prime Minister Tony Abbott has been ousted as leader of the main governing Liberal Party (LP), and will be replaced as head of government by Malcolm Turnbull, who convinced enough of his party colleagues that the coalition of the LP and its traditional partner, the National Party (NP), would lose
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q4 2020 | Region Focus: Appal...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Energy Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics. This issue we focus on the Appalachian Basin.
IBOR transition: Opportunities and challenges for the asset management industryEY
EY Wealth & Asset Management explores the practical implications and the way forward for the transition to the new risk-free rates. This presentation aims to help asset managers and asset owners explore IBOR transition strategies that are compliant and future-focused.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Construction and Building Materials | Q2 2020 |...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Construction Industry newsletter provides a broad range of specialized valuation and transaction advisory services to the construction industry, including residential, commercial, civil, paving, concrete, and more. Each issue includes a segment focus, market overview, mergers and acquisitions review, and more.
KI a INESS v spolupráci s ďalšími partnermi organizovali medzinárodnú
konferenciu v rámci Free Market Road Show 2012 na tému Európa na ceste do
nevoľníctva?, ktorá sa konala dňa 27. apríla 2012 v Bratislave. Pozrite si
prezentáciu Daneila Mitchella. Viac informácií na
www.konzervativizmus.sk.
Our coverage of the Americas this month includes a new report on Costa Rica, where the legislature continues to block tax reforms proposed by President Luis Guillermo Solís, even as the country pushes ever-closer to a full-blown fiscal
This presentation provides key findings from the 2017 edition of the OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook. This includes gross borrowing requirements, net borrowing requirements, central government marketable debt, funding strategies and instruments and distribution channels.
Find out more information at http://www.oecd.org/finance/oecdsovereignborrowingoutlook.htm
A detailed analysis of the prospects for the UK economy in 2012 from Geoff Riley at tutor2u. Among the key themes explored by Geoff are:
Are we already back in recession?
A damaging legacy from the slump
Have policies lost their effectiveness?
Macro fragility in a world of external shocks
1. Macro environment - Global growth slowing, particularly in Europe. UK growth expected to be 1.2% this year but Brexit risks loom large.
2. Momentum - business investment declining, household spending holding up on strong wage growth.
3. Operating costs – expected to rise due to tight labour market, wage growth close to a 11-year high. Commodity prices up 12.5% ytd.
4. Corporate stance – risk appetite lowest since 2008, focus on cost reduction and increasing cash flow.
5. Balance sheet – cash rich, credit cheap and easily available, pockets of debt risk in ‘cov-lite’ sectors, profits falling.
6. Risks – effects of Brexit and weak domestic demand, rising global geopolitical risk and protectionism also a worry for large UK corporates.
Deloitte UK State of the State Report 2016-17Deloitte UK
This year’s State of the State finds the UK Government moving from an era of challenge around one objective – eliminating the budget deficit – into an era of multiple and complex challenges. The next five years will see additional demands on the public sector as it manages the UK’s departure from the EU, continues to drive major reforms and maintains business as usual.
UK government is in the middle of a decade-long recalibration as the public sector aligns to a lower level of public spending. While the first half of this decade has been characterised by austerity and cost reduction, the next half should focus on aspiration and redesign as public sector leaders across the UK shape a more focused state.
On 21 September 2018, Scope affirmed the US sovereign rating at AA/ Stable. What are the factors which contribute to the United States losing its AAA rating?
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Construction and Building Materials | Q1 2020 |...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Construction Industry newsletter provides a broad range of specialized valuation and transaction advisory services to the construction industry, including residential, commercial, civil, paving, concrete, and more. Each issue includes a segment focus, market overview, mergers and acquisitions review, and more.
Policy Uncertainty Increased by Abbott’s Ouster - Prime Minister Tony Abbott has been ousted as leader of the main governing Liberal Party (LP), and will be replaced as head of government by Malcolm Turnbull, who convinced enough of his party colleagues that the coalition of the LP and its traditional partner, the National Party (NP), would lose
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q4 2020 | Region Focus: Appal...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Energy Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics. This issue we focus on the Appalachian Basin.
IBOR transition: Opportunities and challenges for the asset management industryEY
EY Wealth & Asset Management explores the practical implications and the way forward for the transition to the new risk-free rates. This presentation aims to help asset managers and asset owners explore IBOR transition strategies that are compliant and future-focused.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Construction and Building Materials | Q2 2020 |...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Construction Industry newsletter provides a broad range of specialized valuation and transaction advisory services to the construction industry, including residential, commercial, civil, paving, concrete, and more. Each issue includes a segment focus, market overview, mergers and acquisitions review, and more.
KI a INESS v spolupráci s ďalšími partnermi organizovali medzinárodnú
konferenciu v rámci Free Market Road Show 2012 na tému Európa na ceste do
nevoľníctva?, ktorá sa konala dňa 27. apríla 2012 v Bratislave. Pozrite si
prezentáciu Daneila Mitchella. Viac informácií na
www.konzervativizmus.sk.
Our coverage of the Americas this month includes a new report on Costa Rica, where the legislature continues to block tax reforms proposed by President Luis Guillermo Solís, even as the country pushes ever-closer to a full-blown fiscal
This presentation provides key findings from the 2017 edition of the OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook. This includes gross borrowing requirements, net borrowing requirements, central government marketable debt, funding strategies and instruments and distribution channels.
Find out more information at http://www.oecd.org/finance/oecdsovereignborrowingoutlook.htm
A detailed analysis of the prospects for the UK economy in 2012 from Geoff Riley at tutor2u. Among the key themes explored by Geoff are:
Are we already back in recession?
A damaging legacy from the slump
Have policies lost their effectiveness?
Macro fragility in a world of external shocks
The next President will need to confront a number of budgetary challenges and will likely sign into law many federal tax and spending changes. Yet too often, election campaigns are about telling voters what they want to hear rather than what they need to know. To separate fiction from reality, the new Fiscal FactChecker series will monitor the 2016 Presidential campaign on an ongoing basis. To start with, we have identified 16 myths that may come up during the campaign.
The presidential campaign can be an excellent opportunity to engage in a frank, constructive dialogue about the nation's fiscal challenges and what to do about them. Of course, it is much easier to rely on well-worn myths than to explain complex concepts and propose ideas that voters may not like. That’s why we published "16 Budget Myths to Watch Out for in the 2016 Campaign."
In CBO’s projections, economic output is expected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019, supporting strong labor market conditions that feature low unemployment and rising wages. After 2019, economic growth averages 1.8 percent per year, which is less than the historical average.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit for 2019 will be $960 billion. Under current law, budget deficits are projected to average $1.2 trillion a year between 2020 and 2029, boosting debt held by the public to 95 percent of GDP in that year—its highest level since just after World War II.
After the US dollar replaced gold, the US debt became the attention worldwide, thus the demand for the US dollar continued, furthermore the extremely low interest of the dollar. This helped the US government to borrow great amounts of debt as well as kept the creditors pleased. Due to the pandemic, the US economy retrograded because of the tax cut and unproductive rescue spending plan plus surpassing spending of the government. The rising inflation starts to increase to high levels, which certainly the government must cut back spending or its patterns, while this will lead to uncertain consequences for the long future. This paper discusses several different perspectives on the US government's sustainability as its ability to settle the debt in future, the fate of growth burdened with that debt through the neoclassical mode of growth, and also the effect of anxiety of defaults and unfunded obligations. Inversely, it explores the strength of the dollar with a low-interest rate and its sustainability worldwide. We also propose ways helping of strengthen the fiscal government position and solutions to help the economy recover in long term and to easiest the situation. In the synopsis, we propose something that could affect and shake the global market.
FRB-Richmond_ unsustainable fiscal policy_ implications for monetary policyFred Kautz
Economic research suggests that high debt levels ultimately could overwhelm a central bank’s efforts to keep prices stable. This essay will argue that these outcomes should be avoided in the United States by putting fiscal policy on a sustainable path.
With interest rates rising, the debt ceiling looming once again, and high-profile issues like tax reform on the agenda, politicians in Washington are finding it harder to ignore the high and rising national debt. However, instead of addressing the issue openly and honestly, too many are resorting to myths to muddy the waters. We confront some of the most common myths with the facts.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Brookings Institution’s Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy.
Revenues and spending as a share of economic output have varied over business cycles as a result of both changes in legislation and automatic stabilizers. Automatic stabilizers are the automatic increases in revenues and decreases in outlays in the federal budget that occur when the economy strengthens, and the opposite changes that occur when the economy weakens.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Fiscal Policy (Austerity) in the UK Economytutor2u
In this short revision video I try to explain some of the key arguments for and against the policy of fiscal austerity being carried out by the conservative government in an attempt to cut the budget deficit and control / reduce the scale of government debt as a share of GDP. It is essentially a debate between fiscal conservatives and Keynesian economists!
Similar to Budget 2021 the big questions final (20)
Welcome to a milestone edition of the Deloitte Football Money League (‘DFML’). Every year, DFML profiles the financial performance of the highest revenue generating clubs in world football. This year’s edition is a landmark publication for more reasons than one, as it marks 25 years of DFML and covers the first season (2020/21) to be impacted by COVID-19 from start to finish.
Welcome to a milestone edition of the Deloitte Football Money League (‘DFML’). Every year, DFML profiles the financial performance of the highest revenue generating clubs in world football. This year’s edition is a landmark publication for more reasons than one, as it marks 25 years of DFML and covers the first season (2020/21) to be impacted by COVID-19 from start to finish.
We estimate that those clubs in this year’s Money League will have missed out on over €2 billion of revenue across the 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons. This is primarily driven by matchday revenue, due to the absence of fans, but also rebates to broadcasters and some commercial impacts as well as the lost potential to continue their previous growth trajectory over the period.
We estimate that those clubs in this year’s Money League will have missed out on over €2 billion of revenue across the 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons. This is primarily driven by matchday revenue, due to the absence of fans, but also rebates to broadcasters and some commercial impacts as well as the lost potential to continue their previous growth trajectory over the period.
We estimate that those clubs in this year’s Money League will have missed out on over €2 billion of revenue across the 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons. This is primarily driven by matchday revenue, due to the absence of fans, but also rebates to broadcasters and some commercial impacts as well as the lost potential to continue their previous growth trajectory over the period.
The 2018/19 season saw English and European football reach new record levels of revenue generation. This snapshot of the peak before the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic also includes some warning signs for the challenges to come.
Generating record revenue of €841m, Barcelona reach the top of the Money League for the first time, becoming the first club to break the €800m barrier. Overall, the 20 highest earning football clubs in the world generated a record €9.3bn (2018: €8.3bn) of combined revenue in 2018/19, an increase of 11% on the previous year.
The 28th edition of our report reflects the continued revenue growth of the Premier League and Football League has contributed to overall revenues in the European football market reaching record levels in the 2017/18 football season.
1. Global activity easing
2. Slowdown most apparent in euro area
3. China transitioning to slower growth, service economy
4. Central banks pulling back from tightening
5. UK growth dependent on Brexit: exit deal could see GDP growth > 1.0% this year, no deal growth could be < 0.5%
6. Risks to global growth tilting to downside
Belfast has sustained momentum and a high level of ambition through 2018, with construction schemes across the city centre. This is in spite of potentially disruptive macro forces in play including Brexit, and the lack of an executive at Stormont.
Birmingham continues to hit new heights as it drives forward into an era of re-development and re-purposing. Yet again, the city has record-levels of construction with both developer and investor confidence high as preparations for HS2 gets underway and the 2022 Commonwealth Games draws ever closer.
Establishing itself as one of Europe’s fastest growing cities, Manchester continues to lead the way in catering for an increasing metropolitan population. Entire new neighbourhoods are in development redefining the parameters of the city centre as it pushes outwards and upwards driving record levels of construction.
Leeds has broken multiple construction records in 2018 as the city builds for the future, with new highs achieved in the Health and Education and Purpose-Built Student Accommodation sectors (PBSA).
Real Madrid returns to first place in the Money League after generating record revenue of more than €750m in 2017/18, following unprecedented success on the pitch as the club secured a third consecutive Champions League title. FC Barcelona finishes second to complete a Spanish one-two at the top, whilst Manchester United slip to third.
India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...Kumar Satyam
According to TechSci Research report, “India Orthopedic Devices Market -Industry Size, Share, Trends, Competition Forecast & Opportunities, 2030”, the India Orthopedic Devices Market stood at USD 1,280.54 Million in 2024 and is anticipated to grow with a CAGR of 7.84% in the forecast period, 2026-2030F. The India Orthopedic Devices Market is being driven by several factors. The most prominent ones include an increase in the elderly population, who are more prone to orthopedic conditions such as osteoporosis and arthritis. Moreover, the rise in sports injuries and road accidents are also contributing to the demand for orthopedic devices. Advances in technology and the introduction of innovative implants and prosthetics have further propelled the market growth. Additionally, government initiatives aimed at improving healthcare infrastructure and the increasing prevalence of lifestyle diseases have led to an upward trend in orthopedic surgeries, thereby fueling the market demand for these devices.
Putting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptxCynthia Clay
This 60-minute webinar, sponsored by Adobe, was delivered for the Training Mag Network. It explored the five elements of SPARK: Storytelling, Purpose, Action, Relationships, and Kudos. Knowing how to tell a well-structured story is key to building long-term memory. Stating a clear purpose that doesn't take away from the discovery learning process is critical. Ensuring that people move from theory to practical application is imperative. Creating strong social learning is the key to commitment and engagement. Validating and affirming participants' comments is the way to create a positive learning environment.
Taurus Zodiac Sign_ Personality Traits and Sign Dates.pptxmy Pandit
Explore the world of the Taurus zodiac sign. Learn about their stability, determination, and appreciation for beauty. Discover how Taureans' grounded nature and hardworking mindset define their unique personality.
Affordable Stationery Printing Services in Jaipur | Navpack n PrintNavpack & Print
Looking for professional printing services in Jaipur? Navpack n Print offers high-quality and affordable stationery printing for all your business needs. Stand out with custom stationery designs and fast turnaround times. Contact us today for a quote!
Cracking the Workplace Discipline Code Main.pptxWorkforce Group
Cultivating and maintaining discipline within teams is a critical differentiator for successful organisations.
Forward-thinking leaders and business managers understand the impact that discipline has on organisational success. A disciplined workforce operates with clarity, focus, and a shared understanding of expectations, ultimately driving better results, optimising productivity, and facilitating seamless collaboration.
Although discipline is not a one-size-fits-all approach, it can help create a work environment that encourages personal growth and accountability rather than solely relying on punitive measures.
In this deck, you will learn the significance of workplace discipline for organisational success. You’ll also learn
• Four (4) workplace discipline methods you should consider
• The best and most practical approach to implementing workplace discipline.
• Three (3) key tips to maintain a disciplined workplace.
Improving profitability for small businessBen Wann
In this comprehensive presentation, we will explore strategies and practical tips for enhancing profitability in small businesses. Tailored to meet the unique challenges faced by small enterprises, this session covers various aspects that directly impact the bottom line. Attendees will learn how to optimize operational efficiency, manage expenses, and increase revenue through innovative marketing and customer engagement techniques.
As a business owner in Delaware, staying on top of your tax obligations is paramount, especially with the annual deadline for Delaware Franchise Tax looming on March 1. One such obligation is the annual Delaware Franchise Tax, which serves as a crucial requirement for maintaining your company’s legal standing within the state. While the prospect of handling tax matters may seem daunting, rest assured that the process can be straightforward with the right guidance. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll walk you through the steps of filing your Delaware Franchise Tax and provide insights to help you navigate the process effectively.
Remote sensing and monitoring are changing the mining industry for the better. These are providing innovative solutions to long-standing challenges. Those related to exploration, extraction, and overall environmental management by mining technology companies Odisha. These technologies make use of satellite imaging, aerial photography and sensors to collect data that might be inaccessible or from hazardous locations. With the use of this technology, mining operations are becoming increasingly efficient. Let us gain more insight into the key aspects associated with remote sensing and monitoring when it comes to mining.
Skye Residences | Extended Stay Residences Near Toronto Airportmarketingjdass
Experience unparalleled EXTENDED STAY and comfort at Skye Residences located just minutes from Toronto Airport. Discover sophisticated accommodations tailored for discerning travelers.
Website Link :
https://skyeresidences.com/
https://skyeresidences.com/about-us/
https://skyeresidences.com/gallery/
https://skyeresidences.com/rooms/
https://skyeresidences.com/near-by-attractions/
https://skyeresidences.com/commute/
https://skyeresidences.com/contact/
https://skyeresidences.com/queen-suite-with-sofa-bed/
https://skyeresidences.com/queen-suite-with-sofa-bed-and-balcony/
https://skyeresidences.com/queen-suite-with-sofa-bed-accessible/
https://skyeresidences.com/2-bedroom-deluxe-queen-suite-with-sofa-bed/
https://skyeresidences.com/2-bedroom-deluxe-king-queen-suite-with-sofa-bed/
https://skyeresidences.com/2-bedroom-deluxe-queen-suite-with-sofa-bed-accessible/
#Skye Residences Etobicoke, #Skye Residences Near Toronto Airport, #Skye Residences Toronto, #Skye Hotel Toronto, #Skye Hotel Near Toronto Airport, #Hotel Near Toronto Airport, #Near Toronto Airport Accommodation, #Suites Near Toronto Airport, #Etobicoke Suites Near Airport, #Hotel Near Toronto Pearson International Airport, #Toronto Airport Suite Rentals, #Pearson Airport Hotel Suites
RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...BBPMedia1
Marvin neemt je in deze presentatie mee in de voordelen van non-endemic advertising op retail media netwerken. Hij brengt ook de uitdagingen in beeld die de markt op dit moment heeft op het gebied van retail media voor niet-leveranciers.
Retail media wordt gezien als het nieuwe advertising-medium en ook mediabureaus richten massaal retail media-afdelingen op. Merken die niet in de betreffende winkel liggen staan ook nog niet in de rij om op de retail media netwerken te adverteren. Marvin belicht de uitdagingen die er zijn om echt aansluiting te vinden op die markt van non-endemic advertising.
Explore our most comprehensive guide on lookback analysis at SafePaaS, covering access governance and how it can transform modern ERP audits. Browse now!
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdfSam H
At its core, generative artificial intelligence relies on the concept of generative models, which serve as engines that churn out entirely new data resembling their training data. It is like a sculptor who has studied so many forms found in nature and then uses this knowledge to create sculptures from his imagination that have never been seen before anywhere else. If taken to cyberspace, gans work almost the same way.
Premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern BusinessesSynapseIndia
Stay ahead of the curve with our premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions. Our expert developers utilize MongoDB, Express.js, AngularJS, and Node.js to create modern and responsive web applications. Trust us for cutting-edge solutions that drive your business growth and success.
Know more: https://www.synapseindia.com/technology/mean-stack-development-company.html
5 Things You Need To Know Before Hiring a Videographer
Budget 2021 the big questions final
1. 1
The outlook for public spending, taxation and debt
Budget 2021: The big questions
1. What is the outlook for the public finances? The pandemic and the largest
recession in over 300 years are likely to leave lasting scars on the economy and
the public finances. Further ahead, pressure for new spending is only likely to
rise. (page 2)
2. What has the chancellor announced? Support for the recovery is the priority
for this year. Further ahead, tax rises have been pencilled in through higher rates
of corporation tax and the freezing of income tax thresholds. (page 3)
3. Is now the right time to tackle the debt? The chancellor has embraced the
broad economic consensus that governments should borrow to support
demand in the short-term. However, it is not too early to start thinking about
the longer-term sustainability of the public finances. (page 4)
4. How could the chancellor close the deficit? The political appetite for austerity
has waned leaving tax rises as the likely tool for any adjustment. By committing
not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, the chancellor may need to
look to other taxes to raise revenues. (page 5)
5. Whatever happened to fiscal rules? The pandemic has blown the last set of
published fiscal rules well off course. However, the chancellor did offer some
clues as to his guiding principles for stewardship of the public finances. (page 6)
Rarely has there been more uncertainty regarding the course of the public finances over the next five years. In this note
we aim to answer some of the big questions for the economy in light of the 2021 budget.
Authors
Ian Stewart
Chief Economist
020 7007 9386
istewart@deloitte.co.uk
Peter Ireson
Economist
0117 984 1727
pireson@deloitte.co.uk
Tom Simmons
Economist
020 7303 7970
tsimmons@deloitte.co.uk
6. What has changed since the global financial crisis? Following a sluggish
recovery from the last crisis, a sea-change in economic thought has led
to a radically different response to that seen after 2008. (page 7)
7. What happens if interest rates rise? Despite the increasing stock of
public debt, the cost of financing it has fallen since the start of the
pandemic. However, as the chancellor was keen to stress, even small
rises in interest rates could have significant consequences for the public
purse. (page 8)
8. What about other scenarios? The likely fiscal adjustment needed in the
years ahead rests on the unusually uncertain outlook for the economy.
The Office for Budget Responsibility set out three scenarios for the
economy and the public finances. (page 9)
9. Will we see a permanently larger state? Previous crises and wars have
left a legacy of larger government. The COVID-19 pandemic is unlikely to
be different. (page 10)
10. How do the government's spending plans fit with levelling up and the
transition to net zero? Before the pandemic, the government stated its
goal to tackle climate change and reduce regional inequalities. Increased
capital investment and a new infrastructure bank may further its
ambitions in these areas. (page 11)
2. 2
255
212
158 154
128 120 103
70
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Japan Greece United
States
Italy France Spain United
Kingdom
Germany
General government debt as a % of GDP in Q3 2020
1. What is the outlook for the public finances?
Budget 2021: The big questions
Since the last assessment of the public finances by the Office for
Budget Responsibility (OBR) in November, the UK economy has
performed slightly better than expected. The outlook too has
improved and, for now, it looks likely the worst case scenario for
growth and the public finances will be avoided.
Despite the more positive news, the OBR’s latest forecast predicts
that, in the long term, the UK economy will still be 3% smaller
than it would have been had the pandemic not happened.
A smaller economy contributed to public borrowing reaching its
highest level since the second world war last year. It is likely to
remain elevated this year.
Despite this, the cost of financing the public debt has fallen even
as the overall stock of debt has risen. In part, this is because the
UK is far from unique in borrowing large sums to respond to the
economic consequences of the pandemic.
The government faces new pressures on spending even as the
economy recovers. Clearing backlogs in the NHS, helping children
to catch up on missed education and maintaining preparedness
for future pandemics will all require funds.
This is in addition to the government’s ambitions for levelling-up
and the transition to a low-carbon economy.
Further ahead, an ageing society will add to the already
considerable spending pressures. Even before the pandemic, the
OBR expected debt to rise significantly over the long term.
Barring an unexpectedly strong recovery, unless the government
curtails its spending ambitions or significantly raises taxes then the
national debt is likely to remain elevated in the years ahead.
Source: OBR, OECD
Debt comparison
OBR long-term public sector net debt projections, July 2020
3. 3
2. What has the chancellor announced?
Budget 2021: The big questions
Source: HM Treasury
915
985
990
1,155
19,180
47,755
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
DWP: investment in compliance
Inheritance Tax thresholds freeze
Pensions Lifetime Allowance freeze
HMRC: investment in compliance
Income tax thresholds freeze
Corporation tax rises
Selected new revenues or savings from 2020-21
to 2025-26 (£m)
-1,610
-1,695
-2,240
-4,460
-4,720
-5,005
-6,600
-6,945
-11,165
-24,210
-30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0
Stamp Duty holiday extension
Alcohol Duty freeze
Universal Credit uplift extension
Fuel Duty freeze
Reduce rate of VAT for hospitality and leisure
Restart Grants and Additional Restrictions Grants
Business Rates holiday extension
Furlough scheme extension
Self-employed grants
Capital allowances including 130% Super Deduction
Cost of selected tax cuts and new spending from
2020-21 to 2025-26 (£m)
Although the government’s ‘roadmap’ for lifting COVID-19
restrictions envisages that all restrictions may be lifted from late
June, the budget announced that many of the policy measures in
place to support the economy will be extended until September.
These included an extension of the furlough scheme and further
support for the self-employed, including some who had previously
been ineligible for support. An extension of the universal credit
uplift will assist those out of work or on low incomes.
Businesses in the hardest hit sectors such as hospitality and leisure
will benefit from grants, and further VAT and business rates
holidays.
To support the housing market, the stamp duty holiday was
extended, despite strong growth in house prices over the last year.
Although Rishi Sunak has stated his ambition to return to a more
“sustainable fiscal position” he only announced limited tax rises,
most of which will not take effect straight away.
The increase in the corporation tax rate was higher than some had
expected, and although the chancellor was keen to stress the
headline rate remained the lowest in the G7, the effective rate paid
doesn’t compare as favourably.
Perhaps to temper the potential disincentive for business to invest,
a novel policy of allowing businesses a tax ‘super-deduction’ for
investment expenditure aims to encourage business spending as the
economy exits COVID-19 restrictions.
4. 4
3. Is now the right time to tackle the debt?
Budget 2021: The big questions
As the chancellor stated in his budget speech, reducing the national debt relative
to the size of the economy would give the UK more space to respond to future
crises.
After the global financial crisis there were also concerns that if debt kept rising
then investors would shun government debt, leading to rising borrowing costs.
These concerns are muted today, after a decade of falling interest rates and
sluggish economic growth.
Indeed, despite public debt being forecast to rise to levels not seen since the late
1950s, the government is able to borrow at rock-bottom interest rates.
Promoting growth and avoiding long-term damage to the economy and labour
market are rightly the priority in the short term.
Well targeted stimulus through spending or tax measures can hasten the return of
economic activity to its pre-pandemic peak.
Public investment financed through borrowing can also raise the growth potential
of the economy for many years through productivity gains and the ‘crowding in’ of
private investment.
Greater spending has the potential to boost growth and if the economy is growing
faster than stock of debt, then the debt-to-GDP ratio can fall even if the UK
continues to borrow.
Not all spending and tax cuts are created equal. In the short-term, the challenge
for the chancellor is to pick the policies and investments that deliver the greatest
support to the recovery at the lowest cost to the public finances.
However, it is not too soon to start considering what measures may need to be
taken to stabilise the public finances once the recovery has taken hold. The
chancellor clearly agrees, choosing to boost spending this year while pencilling in
tax rises in the years to come.
5. 5
4. How could the chancellor close the deficit?
Budget 2021: The big questions
If the chancellor decides to follow through on his ambition of moving the public finances
to a more sustainable footing he faces a difficult set of political and economic choices.
The political zeitgeist and public mood is against a repeat of the austerity seen under
David Cameron and George Osborne. It seems likely then that the heavy-lifting of any
deficit reduction would be accomplished through tax rises rather than significant
spending cuts.
The Office for Budget Responsibility forecast that at the end of their forecast horizon the
deficit will be £73.7bn. To completely eliminate this would require significant tax rises.
To illustrate the scale of the task we have done a back of an envelope calculation of the
tax rises that would be needed to completely eliminate the 2025-26 deficit (see right).
Our judgment is that such a significant rise in taxes is unlikely. Not least as the
government committed not to raise the rates of VAT, National Insurance or Income Tax
(the so-called ‘triple lock’). By doing so, the government has ruled out significant
revenue increases from the taxes that raise over 60% of its total receipts.
The government is planning to launch a consultation on taxes at the end of March,
suggesting it may look to raise revenue in other areas.
There are longstanding calls for reform to a tax system that includes a number of taxes
and rules seen as distortionary, inconsistent or unfair. The need for new sources of
revenue may present a rare opportunity to simplify or reform some of these. Politically
however, any tax reform which raises tax liabilities for a group of individuals is likely to
create vocal opponents.
30%
52%
18%
47%
27% 26%
0%
100%
Mainly tax rises Mainly spending cuts Don't know
How should the government reduce the deficit?
December 2009 June 2020
Source: YouGov, HM Treasury, Deloitte calculations
6. 6
5. Whatever happened to fiscal rules?
Budget 2021: The big questions
The Conservative Party’s 2019 manifesto set out three fiscal targets that guided the 2020 budget, outlined below in bold. In the latest budget, the
chancellor said it “is not the time to set detailed fiscal rules, with precise targets and dates to achieve them by". But he did set out three guiding
principles, which are in italics beneath the relevant original fiscal rule.
1. To have the current budget in balance no later than the third year of the forecast period
"First, while it is right to help people and businesses through an acute crisis like this one, in normal times the state should
not be borrowing to pay for everyday public spending"
2. To limit public sector net investment to 3% of GDP
"It is sensible to take advantage of lower interest rates to invest in capital projects that can drive our future growth"
3. To reassess plans in the event of a pronounced rise in interest rates taking interest costs above 6% of government revenue
"Over the medium term, we cannot allow our debt to keep rising, and, given how high our debt now is, we need to pay close attention to
its affordability"
Relative to the fiscal targets that guided the 2020 Budget, the latest forecast and the Chancellor’s Budget decisions suggest that a focus on the current
balance is retained, but the goal of achieving that by the third year of the forecast period is not; and the focus on stabilising debt has increased. The
chancellor has indicated net investment is likely to rise and so seems less focused on the previous ceiling set on investment as a percentage of GDP in
2020.
7. 7
6. What’s changed since the global financial crisis?
Budget 2021: The big questions
Governments have eased fiscal policy far more aggressively than in
response to the global financial crisis, and debt has therefore risen
faster.
Government deficits in advanced economies ballooned to 13.3% of
GDP last year, twice the levels seen in the financial crisis in 2009.
Economists and policymakers have changed their stance on the need
to address higher levels of debt. After the financial crisis the IMF and
OECD encouraged governments to focus on paying back debt.
In recent months, both of those organisations have
urged governments to rethink constraints on public spending,
warning them against prematurely limiting the recovery by
tightening fiscal policy too early.
The change in thinking is mainly due to the historically low
borrowing costs for sovereigns. Low inflation, low interest rates, a
strong appetite for government debt and large amounts of
quantitative easing have driven down and subdued borrowing costs.
The IMF recommends that governments lock in record-low interest
rates and borrow, and spend, in support of the recovery.
For now, economic policy is very much focused on the risks of not
doing enough to support growth.
There is, as yet, no strong pressure or constituency for fiscal
tightening. But as the economy recovers the assumption that low
interest rates will continue forever could face challenges.
Headlines from the Global Financial Crisis
Headlines from the COVID-19 pandemic
8. 8
7. What happens if interest rates rise?
Budget 2021: The big questions
The debt interest to revenue ratio is lower in every year of the OBR's
forecast compared to the March 2020 forecast, despite debt
being materially higher due to the pandemic.
This is thanks to lower interest rates, especially at shorter maturities,
and the doubling in quantitative easing by the Bank of England,
which further reduces debt interest.
However, a rise in market interest rates could sharply increase the
government's cost of borrowing.
The OBR’s numbers reflect interest rates as they stood on 5 February,
before the rise in market interest rates in recent weeks. If the debt
interest forecast had been based on market interest rates as they stood
on 26 February, spending would have been £6.3bn higher in 2025-26.
According to the OBR’s ready reckoner, a one percentage point increase
in the interest rates paid on government debt could add £21bn to the
annual debt interest bill.
If inflation and interest rates rise more than forecast, borrowing costs
will increase, which could make high levels of debt unsustainable.
However, the most likely cause of rising inflation would be a stronger-
than-expected economic recovery. As long as the rate of economic
growth outstrips the accrual of debt, the ratio of debt-to-GDP should
begin to unwind organically.
Source: OBR
9. 9
8. What about other scenarios?
Budget 2021: The big questions
The path of the pandemic is the key risk to the public finances.
The OBR's central forecast has GDP recovering to pre-pandemic levels by
the middle of 2022. This assumes the government sticks to its reopening
plan.
Downside: more onerous restrictions are imposed through the spring of
this year and re-imposed in the winter. This requires a more substantial
and costly economic adjustment, activity recovers at the end of 2024
Upside: Effective control of the virus allows for an earlier easing of
restrictions, with output recovering by end 2021
Receipts fall roughly in line with the economy and therefore differ only
moderately as a share of GDP across the scenarios. By 2025-26, receipts
are 1.8 per cent of GDP lower in the downside scenario than in the
central scenario.
Spending in each scenario moves with the Government’s policy decisions
as they stood in November. In 2021-22, spending is 3.6 per cent of GDP
higher in the downside scenario than in the central case, reflecting higher
public spending and a smaller economy. By 2025-26, the 1.5 per cent of
GDP difference between the scenarios is almost wholly accounted for by
differences in GDP.
By 2025-26, borrowing is 3.3 per cent of GDP higher in the downside
scenario and public sector debt is 19.3 per cent of GDP higher.
10. 10
9. Will we see a permanently larger state?
Budget 2021: The big questions
After previous crises, most obviously WW1, WW2 and to a
lesser extent the global financial crisis, public sector spending as
a percentage of GDP remained elevated for some time.
The government faces new pressures on spending even as the
economy recovers. These include clearing backlogs in the NHS,
helping children catch up on missed education, the transition to
a low-carbon economy, levelling up and maintaining
preparedness for future pandemics.
The OBR expect public spending to rise from 39.8% of GDP in
2019-20 to 41.9% in 2025-26.
There is little concern that high levels of public borrowing and
spending might ‘crowd out’ private sector borrowing and
activity, the main threat is insufficient demand.
Investors in the US appear to see the benefits of greater fiscal
stimulus under a Biden administration more than outweighing
any negative effects from higher taxes or greater regulation.
It is likely therefore that we will see a permanent increase in the
size of the state and higher amounts of public spending, to
levels not seen for many decades.
Source: OBR