Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 189, the House Ways & Means Committee bill which would establish an employment tax for education.
HB 202 (HFIN): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable BudgetsBrad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets with the House Finance Committee on HB 202 (Rep. Merrick) proposing a restructuring of and cuts in the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD).
Alaska's Fiscal Situation: Where We've Been, Where We're Headed (10.26.2019)Brad Keithley
This document summarizes Alaska's fiscal situation and options for addressing budget deficits. It notes that from FY2013-2020, Alaska relied on $20.72 billion in deficit financing. Projections show annual deficits averaging $1.3 billion through FY2029 even with current statutes. Options to close gaps like cuts to PFD payouts or a flat income tax are discussed, but cuts to PFD are seen as highly regressive and damaging to low-income residents. The group advocates a three-pronged approach of a PFD based on a 50/50 oil revenue formula, limiting spending growth, and a 1% flat income tax to close remaining gaps in a fair and sustainable way.
Impact of Proposed PFDCuts on Alaska Income & Jobs (Supplement to 3.4.2021 Le...Brad Keithley
This presentation is to supplement the 3.4.2021 LegFin Presentation to the Senate Finance Committee to analyze the impact of the PFDcuts discussed there on Alaska income & jobs.
This document summarizes demographic, economic, and housing market data for Lake Elsinore, California. It discusses trends seen from 2015-2019, including population and economic growth. Housing metrics like sales history, median home prices, and average home values from 2018-2019 are presented. The document also discusses broader CA and national trends in GDP, consumption, inflation, and job growth. It notes challenges around housing affordability and the need to build more housing statewide. In the end, it briefly touches on relevant national and state political issues and policies.
Housing Permits and Starts: Key Economic IndicatorsMaddox_Bielby
There are several economic indicators for the U.S. economy, and one of these is “housing starts.” Housing starts refer to the number of houses which started construction in a given period. In 2017, new housing construction accounted for about 5% of the country’s economy, including 27% of investments. As a leading economic indicator, this statistic could show if the economy is slowing down and is going into recession, or if the economy is improving.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
The Congressional Budget Office briefing discusses projections for the US budget and economy from 2018 to 2028. Deficits are projected to increase in the next few years before stabilizing above their 50-year average throughout the period. Real GDP growth is projected to average 1.9% over the period, with the 2017 tax act providing a temporary boost averaging 0.7% annually. Accumulating deficits will cause federal debt held by the public to rise from 78% of GDP currently to 96% by 2028, the highest level since 1946.
The document discusses the federal budget deficit and its drivers. It notes that the deficit grew significantly from large surpluses in the early 2000s due to tax cuts, defense spending increases, and rising healthcare costs. Making the tax cuts permanent would cost trillions over time. The president's proposed budget would cut domestic programs and Medicaid while extending the tax cuts, worsening deficits. A balanced approach of spending cuts and revenue increases is recommended to reduce deficits in a responsible way.
HB 202 (HFIN): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable BudgetsBrad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets with the House Finance Committee on HB 202 (Rep. Merrick) proposing a restructuring of and cuts in the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD).
Alaska's Fiscal Situation: Where We've Been, Where We're Headed (10.26.2019)Brad Keithley
This document summarizes Alaska's fiscal situation and options for addressing budget deficits. It notes that from FY2013-2020, Alaska relied on $20.72 billion in deficit financing. Projections show annual deficits averaging $1.3 billion through FY2029 even with current statutes. Options to close gaps like cuts to PFD payouts or a flat income tax are discussed, but cuts to PFD are seen as highly regressive and damaging to low-income residents. The group advocates a three-pronged approach of a PFD based on a 50/50 oil revenue formula, limiting spending growth, and a 1% flat income tax to close remaining gaps in a fair and sustainable way.
Impact of Proposed PFDCuts on Alaska Income & Jobs (Supplement to 3.4.2021 Le...Brad Keithley
This presentation is to supplement the 3.4.2021 LegFin Presentation to the Senate Finance Committee to analyze the impact of the PFDcuts discussed there on Alaska income & jobs.
This document summarizes demographic, economic, and housing market data for Lake Elsinore, California. It discusses trends seen from 2015-2019, including population and economic growth. Housing metrics like sales history, median home prices, and average home values from 2018-2019 are presented. The document also discusses broader CA and national trends in GDP, consumption, inflation, and job growth. It notes challenges around housing affordability and the need to build more housing statewide. In the end, it briefly touches on relevant national and state political issues and policies.
Housing Permits and Starts: Key Economic IndicatorsMaddox_Bielby
There are several economic indicators for the U.S. economy, and one of these is “housing starts.” Housing starts refer to the number of houses which started construction in a given period. In 2017, new housing construction accounted for about 5% of the country’s economy, including 27% of investments. As a leading economic indicator, this statistic could show if the economy is slowing down and is going into recession, or if the economy is improving.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
The Congressional Budget Office briefing discusses projections for the US budget and economy from 2018 to 2028. Deficits are projected to increase in the next few years before stabilizing above their 50-year average throughout the period. Real GDP growth is projected to average 1.9% over the period, with the 2017 tax act providing a temporary boost averaging 0.7% annually. Accumulating deficits will cause federal debt held by the public to rise from 78% of GDP currently to 96% by 2028, the highest level since 1946.
The document discusses the federal budget deficit and its drivers. It notes that the deficit grew significantly from large surpluses in the early 2000s due to tax cuts, defense spending increases, and rising healthcare costs. Making the tax cuts permanent would cost trillions over time. The president's proposed budget would cut domestic programs and Medicaid while extending the tax cuts, worsening deficits. A balanced approach of spending cuts and revenue increases is recommended to reduce deficits in a responsible way.
This document summarizes Phillip L. Swagel's presentation to the National Association for Business Economics on March 23, 2021 about the Congressional Budget Office's 2021 long-term budget outlook. It projects that growing deficits will drive federal debt held by the public to over 200% of GDP by 2051. Net interest costs are projected to account for most of the growth in total deficits in the last two decades. Individual income tax increases are projected to account for most of the rise in total revenues relative to GDP through 2051.
The document summarizes the FY2019 federal budget and defense budget. It notes that the bipartisan budget deal sets funding levels for defense and non-defense agencies, with non-defense seeing increases above prior plans. For defense, there is a large funding increase of over 10% for FY2018, with more modest growth of around 2% for FY2019 and beyond. Key areas like ground forces, space systems, and missiles see large funding boosts. The summary outlines impacts to budgets, programs, and timelines across FY2018-FY2019 and beyond.
The Congressional Budget Office presentation discusses projections of growing US federal debt levels through 2051 if current laws do not change. Federal debt held by the public is projected to reach over 200% of GDP by 2051, the highest in US history, driven by rising budget deficits as spending grows faster than revenues. Spending increases are primarily for Social Security, Medicare, and interest on the debt as interest rates are expected to exceed economic growth in later decades.
At 78 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), federal debt held by the public is now at its highest level since shortly after World War II. If current laws generally remained unchanged, CBO projects, growing budget deficits would boost that debt sharply over the next 30 years; it would approach 100 percent of GDP by the end of the next decade and 152 percent by 2048. That amount would be the highest in the nation’s history by far. The prospect of large and growing debt poses substantial risks for the nation and presents policymakers with significant challenges.
This infographic provides an overview of CBO's report, The 2016 Long-Term Budget Outlook. Gain quick insight into why CBO projects a substantial imbalance in the federal budget beyond the next 10 years.
The document discusses the rising price of gasoline in the United States from 1990 to 2012 based on a graph and data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. It performs several linear regressions on different portions of the data to estimate when the average nationwide price per gallon may reach $5, with the most recent regression estimating it could be by the end of 2012 or early 2013 based on current pricing trends.
The fiscal cliff refers to the combination of tax increases and spending cuts scheduled to take effect in January 2013 as a result of previous legislation. If Congress does not act, the fiscal cliff could cut GDP by 4% and cause a recession with higher unemployment. However, Congress still has opportunities to compromise and pass replacement legislation to avoid the full impact. The term "fiscal cliff" is somewhat misleading because Congress can still retroactively change the scheduled policies after January 2013.
Federal debt held by the public is projected to remain above 70% of GDP through 2023 under current law. Revenues are projected to rise from 17.5% of GDP in 2013 to around 19% of GDP from 2016-2023. Mandatory spending, driven by programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, is projected to increase from 13.1% of GDP in 2014 to 14.0% of GDP in 2022-2023. Discretionary spending is projected to decline slightly over the next few years but then rise, reaching 6.5% of GDP by 2023.
Under current law, the Congressional Budget Office projects that deficits will increase over the next few years and remain above the 50-year average through 2028. Revenues are expected to rise as a percentage of GDP due to scheduled tax changes and economic growth, but spending on Social Security and Medicare will also increase, pushing up mandatory outlays. As a result, federal debt held by the public is projected to rise from 78% of GDP in 2018 to 96% by 2028, which would be the highest since 1946. An alternative scenario in which current policies are maintained could result in debt reaching 105% of GDP by 2028.
The Congressional Budget Office director presented on the current outlook for the federal budget and criteria for evaluating policy changes. Under current law, deficits will remain high and debt will exceed historical averages. Fundamental choices are needed as federal health and retirement programs grow substantially due to an aging population. To adequately reduce deficits, large cuts would be needed to spending programs, substantial tax increases, or a combination. Any policy changes involve economic and distributional tradeoffs to consider.
Presentation to the Oregon Legislature on the latest economic and revenue outlook for the State of Oregon. Overview of the U.S. and Oregon economic landscape. Tax revenue tracking and outlook for personal income taxes, corporate income taxes, Lottery sales and recreational marijuana sales.
In 2020, CBO estimates a deficit of $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Under current law, the projected gap between outlays and revenues increases to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030. Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise over the coming decade, from 81 percent of GDP in 2020 to 98 percent of GDP in 2030. It continues to grow thereafter, in CBO’s projections, reaching 180 percent of GDP in 2050, well above the highest level ever recorded in the United States.
Current Thinking, November/December 2012Kevin Lenox
- If lawmakers cannot agree on a deal by the end of the year to avoid the "fiscal cliff", $560 billion in tax increases and $136 billion in spending cuts will automatically go into effect in 2013, resulting in a 3.6% decline in GDP and average household tax bills rising by $3,500.
- With many popular tax deductions and credits set to expire, tax planning strategies are more important than ever given the uncertainty around which provisions will be extended or changed.
- Estate and gift tax exemptions could be reduced substantially if Congress does not act, so accelerating gifts may help move assets out of estates before year-end.
The document summarizes key aspects of the U.S. federal budget from 2009 to projected 2015, including that total outlays and deficits have declined but remain high historically. It also notes major upcoming decisions for lawmakers, long-term issues around the growing debt, and implications of health care costs and an aging population for the budget.
The document summarizes CBO's updated budget and economic projections from 2021 to 2031. It finds that primary deficits will hover around 2% of GDP through 2029, while net interest costs will rise from 1.3% in 2024 to 2.7% in 2031 due to mounting federal debt. The projected 2021 deficit has increased by a third due to recent legislation. Federal debt held by the public is projected to reach 106% of GDP by 2031, matching the previous peak in 1946. Outlays are projected to climb after 2024 as Social Security and healthcare costs rise along with interest rates, while revenues remain relatively flat, resulting in large deficits and rising debt levels.
The document is from the Congressional Budget Office and discusses the rising federal deficits and debt in the United States. It notes that under current policies, deficits are projected to increase significantly as a percentage of GDP due to factors like an aging population and rising healthcare costs. To put the budget on a sustainable path, lawmakers will need to adopt policies that increase taxes, reduce government benefits and services, or combine both. However, achieving the large amount of deficit reduction needed to stabilize rising debt levels will be very challenging.
HB 202 & HB 37 (Statutory PFD Reductions): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainab...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 202 (Rep. Merrick) & HB 37 (Rep. Wool) proposing (and in the case of HB 37, some substitute revenues to reduce the level of) cuts in the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD).
Comments and Proposed Amendment of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 306...Brad Keithley
The comments and proposed amendment of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB306 (the proposal by Reps. Johnston & Kopp permanently to implement POMV 80/20).
This document summarizes Phillip L. Swagel's presentation to the National Association for Business Economics on March 23, 2021 about the Congressional Budget Office's 2021 long-term budget outlook. It projects that growing deficits will drive federal debt held by the public to over 200% of GDP by 2051. Net interest costs are projected to account for most of the growth in total deficits in the last two decades. Individual income tax increases are projected to account for most of the rise in total revenues relative to GDP through 2051.
The document summarizes the FY2019 federal budget and defense budget. It notes that the bipartisan budget deal sets funding levels for defense and non-defense agencies, with non-defense seeing increases above prior plans. For defense, there is a large funding increase of over 10% for FY2018, with more modest growth of around 2% for FY2019 and beyond. Key areas like ground forces, space systems, and missiles see large funding boosts. The summary outlines impacts to budgets, programs, and timelines across FY2018-FY2019 and beyond.
The Congressional Budget Office presentation discusses projections of growing US federal debt levels through 2051 if current laws do not change. Federal debt held by the public is projected to reach over 200% of GDP by 2051, the highest in US history, driven by rising budget deficits as spending grows faster than revenues. Spending increases are primarily for Social Security, Medicare, and interest on the debt as interest rates are expected to exceed economic growth in later decades.
At 78 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), federal debt held by the public is now at its highest level since shortly after World War II. If current laws generally remained unchanged, CBO projects, growing budget deficits would boost that debt sharply over the next 30 years; it would approach 100 percent of GDP by the end of the next decade and 152 percent by 2048. That amount would be the highest in the nation’s history by far. The prospect of large and growing debt poses substantial risks for the nation and presents policymakers with significant challenges.
This infographic provides an overview of CBO's report, The 2016 Long-Term Budget Outlook. Gain quick insight into why CBO projects a substantial imbalance in the federal budget beyond the next 10 years.
The document discusses the rising price of gasoline in the United States from 1990 to 2012 based on a graph and data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. It performs several linear regressions on different portions of the data to estimate when the average nationwide price per gallon may reach $5, with the most recent regression estimating it could be by the end of 2012 or early 2013 based on current pricing trends.
The fiscal cliff refers to the combination of tax increases and spending cuts scheduled to take effect in January 2013 as a result of previous legislation. If Congress does not act, the fiscal cliff could cut GDP by 4% and cause a recession with higher unemployment. However, Congress still has opportunities to compromise and pass replacement legislation to avoid the full impact. The term "fiscal cliff" is somewhat misleading because Congress can still retroactively change the scheduled policies after January 2013.
Federal debt held by the public is projected to remain above 70% of GDP through 2023 under current law. Revenues are projected to rise from 17.5% of GDP in 2013 to around 19% of GDP from 2016-2023. Mandatory spending, driven by programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, is projected to increase from 13.1% of GDP in 2014 to 14.0% of GDP in 2022-2023. Discretionary spending is projected to decline slightly over the next few years but then rise, reaching 6.5% of GDP by 2023.
Under current law, the Congressional Budget Office projects that deficits will increase over the next few years and remain above the 50-year average through 2028. Revenues are expected to rise as a percentage of GDP due to scheduled tax changes and economic growth, but spending on Social Security and Medicare will also increase, pushing up mandatory outlays. As a result, federal debt held by the public is projected to rise from 78% of GDP in 2018 to 96% by 2028, which would be the highest since 1946. An alternative scenario in which current policies are maintained could result in debt reaching 105% of GDP by 2028.
The Congressional Budget Office director presented on the current outlook for the federal budget and criteria for evaluating policy changes. Under current law, deficits will remain high and debt will exceed historical averages. Fundamental choices are needed as federal health and retirement programs grow substantially due to an aging population. To adequately reduce deficits, large cuts would be needed to spending programs, substantial tax increases, or a combination. Any policy changes involve economic and distributional tradeoffs to consider.
Presentation to the Oregon Legislature on the latest economic and revenue outlook for the State of Oregon. Overview of the U.S. and Oregon economic landscape. Tax revenue tracking and outlook for personal income taxes, corporate income taxes, Lottery sales and recreational marijuana sales.
In 2020, CBO estimates a deficit of $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Under current law, the projected gap between outlays and revenues increases to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030. Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise over the coming decade, from 81 percent of GDP in 2020 to 98 percent of GDP in 2030. It continues to grow thereafter, in CBO’s projections, reaching 180 percent of GDP in 2050, well above the highest level ever recorded in the United States.
Current Thinking, November/December 2012Kevin Lenox
- If lawmakers cannot agree on a deal by the end of the year to avoid the "fiscal cliff", $560 billion in tax increases and $136 billion in spending cuts will automatically go into effect in 2013, resulting in a 3.6% decline in GDP and average household tax bills rising by $3,500.
- With many popular tax deductions and credits set to expire, tax planning strategies are more important than ever given the uncertainty around which provisions will be extended or changed.
- Estate and gift tax exemptions could be reduced substantially if Congress does not act, so accelerating gifts may help move assets out of estates before year-end.
The document summarizes key aspects of the U.S. federal budget from 2009 to projected 2015, including that total outlays and deficits have declined but remain high historically. It also notes major upcoming decisions for lawmakers, long-term issues around the growing debt, and implications of health care costs and an aging population for the budget.
The document summarizes CBO's updated budget and economic projections from 2021 to 2031. It finds that primary deficits will hover around 2% of GDP through 2029, while net interest costs will rise from 1.3% in 2024 to 2.7% in 2031 due to mounting federal debt. The projected 2021 deficit has increased by a third due to recent legislation. Federal debt held by the public is projected to reach 106% of GDP by 2031, matching the previous peak in 1946. Outlays are projected to climb after 2024 as Social Security and healthcare costs rise along with interest rates, while revenues remain relatively flat, resulting in large deficits and rising debt levels.
The document is from the Congressional Budget Office and discusses the rising federal deficits and debt in the United States. It notes that under current policies, deficits are projected to increase significantly as a percentage of GDP due to factors like an aging population and rising healthcare costs. To put the budget on a sustainable path, lawmakers will need to adopt policies that increase taxes, reduce government benefits and services, or combine both. However, achieving the large amount of deficit reduction needed to stabilize rising debt levels will be very challenging.
HB 202 & HB 37 (Statutory PFD Reductions): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainab...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 202 (Rep. Merrick) & HB 37 (Rep. Wool) proposing (and in the case of HB 37, some substitute revenues to reduce the level of) cuts in the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD).
Comments and Proposed Amendment of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 306...Brad Keithley
The comments and proposed amendment of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB306 (the proposal by Reps. Johnston & Kopp permanently to implement POMV 80/20).
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
Mercer Capital's Value Matters™ | Issue 1, 2022 Mercer Capital
This document discusses several topics related to family businesses and estate planning:
1) It analyzes different approaches to valuing a business when a key person is involved, arguing that incremental risk or cash flow analysis are better than an arbitrary discount.
2) It notes that the Ford family still significantly influences Ford Motor Company through share ownership.
3) It comments on the high valuation of new electric vehicle company Rivian, in which Ford has a sizable ownership stake.
CBO provides budget and economic analysis to Congress to support the congressional budget process. It prepares a 10-year baseline and estimates the budgetary effects of proposed legislation. CBO publishes about 70 reports and testimonies each year covering major policy areas and presents policy options but makes no recommendations. CBO aims for objective, impartial analysis and carefully ensures analysts can perform nonpartisan work.
Comments in opposition to SB 199 & SB 200 (2.20.2022)Brad Keithley
The comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets in opposition to Senate Finance Committee bills SB 199 & SB 200, which propose to substantially restructure and cut the Permanent Fund Dividend.
HJR1 & HB165: Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets CommentsBrad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HJR 1 & HB165, Rep. Kreiss-Tomkin's proposed Constitutional Amendment to Guarantee the Permanent Fund Dividend
Tax Reform: Time for Rubber to meet the road!David Apted
The passage discusses the potential impacts of the recently passed Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. It suggests that the tax cuts could significantly boost US corporate earnings and economic growth. Specifically, it predicts earnings for the S&P 500 index may increase 13-18% in 2018 due to the lower corporate tax rate of 21%. This would push the index's price-to-earnings ratio to a more reasonable level. Industries with large domestic revenues like retail, telecom, and utilities may benefit the most. The tax cuts could also push GDP growth above 3% over the next few years and further delay recession risks.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
The 2017 federal budget announced $4.4 billion in new initiatives over five years, one-fifth of the amount announced in the previous year. It focused on trimming inefficiencies rather than major policy changes. The budget projected a steady decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio from 31.5% to 30.9% by 2021/22. It included only small adjustments to taxes and spending rather than comprehensive reforms.
This document provides an overview and tips for 2017 individual tax planning. It summarizes key tax rates, deductions, credits, and strategies to consider for reducing tax liability for the year. Potential tax reform proposals could change rates and provisions for 2018, so the document recommends planning based on current tax law and taking advantage of opportunities before year-end 2017 to be effective in mitigating taxes. It includes charts outlining various tax rates, limits, phaseouts and considerations for married and unmarried filers.
HFIN CS for HB69 (work draft presented 4.23.2021): Comments of Alaskans for S...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HFIN CS for HB69, the House Finance Committee's proposed committee substitute for HB69, the Governor's proposed operating budget.
CBO provides additional information about its February 2023 baseline projections of capital gains realizations, which decrease from an estimated high of 8.7 percent of GDP in 2021 down to 3.7 percent of GDP by 2033.
What does the new Tax Cuts and Jobs Act mean for you? Our January Investment Insights explores the key points of the most significant overhaul of the tax system since '86, reviewing the new tax brackets, deductions and exemptions, and the effects on the economy.
- The Total Asset Partners portfolio returned 7.53% gross and 6.34% net for 2016. Returns were supported by equities offsetting losses in municipal bonds.
- For the fourth quarter, returns were 0.83% gross and 0.26% net. The portfolio has outperformed benchmarks like the S&P 500 and Barclays Aggregate index on a year-to-date basis with lower volatility.
- The document discusses economic and market outlooks, noting expectations for modest US growth around 2-2.5% in 2017, potential for higher inflation and interest rates, and risks from a strong US dollar.
In this issue:
LISA reappears after a summer redesign.
Is your family financially protected?
What is a £5,000 a year pension worth?
Tax evasion, avoidance and planning - righting wrongs
Original air date: July 27, 2017
Rebroadcast and recording info at http://www.mhmcpa.com
Administrative, legislative and judicial updates emerge from Washington each quarter that may affect your business. Our free, quarterly webinars provide insight to help prepare you for the tax developments of the most interest to you, your business and other interested stakeholders.
Our Eye on Washington webinars assist CEOs, CFOs, financial executives and advisors, and other interested parties in navigating the complex tax environment. From federal tax reform to IRS guidance and healthcare reform, topics covered will provide the up-to-date information you need to help you plan for the future.
Similar to HB 189 (Employment Tax for Education): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets (20)
Testimony before HRES on South Central GasBrad Keithley
By invitation, we testified before the Alaska House Resources Committee on March 15, 2024, on Southcentral Gas Supply. The presentation was part of the Committee's look into the implications of the challenges currently facing Cook Inlet gas supplies.
The presentation addressed both energy and fiscal policy. Our theme was simple: " Let the market decide" and no subsidies. But if there are subsidies, they should be paid for other than through PFD cuts.
The slide-deck we used is attached here. The hearing itself is available at https://bit.ly/48YyBFf.
Presentation to Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce's Government Relations ...Brad Keithley
Our September 27, 2022, presentation to the Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce's Govt Relations Comm on Alaska's current fiscal situation and our views on the positions of the candidates for Alaska Governor in response.
SJR6/SB53 (HJR7/HB73): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets Comments ...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on SJR6/SB53 (HJR7/HB73), the Governor's proposed Constitutional Amendments relating to the Alaska permanent fund, appropriations from the permanent fund, and the permanent fund dividend.
SJR 1 (Guarantee Perm Fund Dividend): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Bu...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on SJR 1, Sen. Wielechowski's proposed Constitutional Amendment to Guarantee the Permanent Fund Dividend
The Economic Impact on Alaska of Various Fiscal Solutions (4.10.2021)Brad Keithley
This document summarizes several studies on the economic impact of different fiscal solutions for Alaska's budget deficit. The 2016 ISER study examined the impact of options like spending cuts, PFD cuts, and tax increases on income, jobs, distribution across income levels, and regions of Alaska. It found that PFD cuts would have the largest adverse impact on the economy and families. Subsequent ISER studies reinforced that PFDs significantly reduce poverty. A 2019 study argued for reduced spending and analyzed revenue options using static and dynamic models. A 2020 Tax Foundation study argued that certain taxes like sales taxes could have lower economic impact than others, but it provided limited analysis. The presentation concludes by advocating for a flat tax as the best option to
Distributional Impact of Proposed PFDCuts on Alaska Families by Income Bracke...Brad Keithley
This presentation is to supplement the 3.4.2021 LegFin Presentation to the Senate Finance Committee to analyze the distributional impact by income bracket of the level of PFDcuts discussed there.
Analysis by the Legislative Finance Division of Alaska's fiscal position: how we got here, where we are and where we are headed under various alternatives.
DNR Fall 2020 Production Forecast (1.27.2021)Brad Keithley
The document provides a summary of Alaska's 2020 oil production forecast. It notes that the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted production in 2020, leading to deferred maintenance and interrupted drilling. The forecast expects average 2021 production of 470,000 barrels per day, within the range of 413,000 to 526,000 barrels per day. Currently producing fields will remain the backbone of production, while future projects under development or evaluation could help offset declining output from mature fields over the long term. However, uncertainty increases in longer-term forecasts due to risks associated with new projects.
LegFin: Preliminary Overview of the Governor's FY22 Budget (1.8.2021)Brad Keithley
The document provides a preliminary overview of Alaska's structural budget deficit and the Governor's FY2022 budget proposal. It notes that Alaska has faced nine consecutive years of budget deficits due to declining oil revenue. The Governor's budget reduces spending from the current law baseline through lower agency budgets and partial funding of items like the PFD. It draws funds from the ERA to fully pay the PFD but still faces a small deficit. The 10-year plan aims to balance the budget starting in FY2023 through dividend reductions, spending cuts, and new revenue.
Upcoming Federal Fiscal Deadlines (10.20.2020)Brad Keithley
The document outlines key fiscal and economic deadlines and expirations for 2020 through 2026, including temporary extensions of appropriations, tax provisions, and entitlement programs. Key dates include the expiration of pandemic unemployment programs and various tax extenders at the end of 2020, debt limit suspension ending in July 2021, and trust funds for Medicare, Social Security, and pensions anticipated to be exhausted between 2024-2031 based on Congressional Budget Office projections.
Concord Coalition: The Current US Fiscal Situation (October 2020)Brad Keithley
A chart talk from The Concord Coalition analyzing the fiscal challenges facing the US before COVID, and how the economic impact of COVID and the federal response has made that situation even more difficult.
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04062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
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HB 189 (Employment Tax for Education): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets
1. 5/5/2021 Gmail - HB 189
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ik=d8f123d76e&view=pt&search=all&permmsgid=msg-a%3Ar-2482390746392533490&simpl=msg-a%3Ar-24823907… 1/2
Brad Keithley <bgkeithley@gmail.com>
HB 189
Brad Keithley <bgkeithley@gmail.com> Wed, May 5, 2021 at 10:18 AM
To: House Ways and Means <House.Ways.And.Means@akleg.gov>
Cc: Representative.Ivy.Spohnholz@akleg.gov, Representative.Adam.Wool@akleg.gov,
Representative.Andy.Josephson@akleg.gov, Representative.Calvin.Schrage@akleg.gov,
Representative.Andi.Story@akleg.gov, Representative.Mike.Prax@akleg.gov, Representative.David.Eastman@akleg.gov,
Rose Foley <Rose.Foley@akleg.gov>
On behalf of the Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets project, this is to provide comments on HB 189, Employment Tax for
Education. We oppose the bill.
The reason we oppose the bill is because it is regressive, shifting more of the financial burden of state government to
middle & lower income Alaska families than to the Top 20%. For the reasons outlined in the Institute of Social and
Economic Research (ISER)'s 2016 ("Short-Run Economic Impacts of Alaska Fiscal Options") and 2017 ("Effect of
Alaska Fiscal Options On Children and Families") studies, compared with alternatives, regressive fiscal measures are
damaging both to Alaska families and the overall Alaska economy. While that is reason enough to oppose the bill, it is
especially so in light of the substantial cuts in the PFD (from statutory levels) currently proposed in HB 197, which are
even more deeply regressive. Layering one regressive fiscal measure on top of another multiplies the adverse impacts.
HB 189 also is hugely inequitable, given that, to our knowledge, there are no progressive, nor even flat, fiscal measures
proposed to offset its regressive effect. To put it bluntly, particularly when combined with HB 197, the bill allows the Top
20% to escape from making any significant fiscal contribution by using revenue approaches which shift the burden
almost entirely to middle and lower income Alaska families.
We appreciate that the Fiscal Note to the bill indicates that the tax rate "would generally follow a progressive tax rate
schedule." That is misleading, however, to the extent that readers infer the bill itself is progressive. As the Institute on
Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) noted in its April 2017 study for the legislature ("Comparing the Distributional
Impact of Revenue Options in Alaska," at Option D), while somewhat progressive at the lower end of the income range,
payroll taxes (which is what HB 189 is) become regressive at the upper end of the range "because high-income earners
receive a large share of their income from investments that [are] exempted" from the tax. Instead of being spread
equitably, the impact "fall[s] heaviest on middle- and upper-middle income families in their prime working years that do
not receive significant income from their investments."*
Put differently, the tax falls directly on "working" families, while those more reliant on investment and other, non-wage
related income largely escape. While the progressive rates within the boundaries of the tax may change slightly who
within its confines bears the largest share of the burden, tilting it more to upper-middle income working families than a
flat rate, they don't at all broaden its boundaries to include those in the upper income brackets with income excluded
from the tax. We note with interest that, while the Fiscal Note refers to "the distribution among tax brackets," it doesn't
actually include a distributional breakdown of the tax by income bracket in the form utilized in ITEP's 2017 study, which
usually accompany the analysis of the effects of proposed taxes at the federal level and in other states. We believe that
the materials supporting any tax being considered by the Committee should routinely include such an analysis.
In sum, we oppose HB 189 because of its regressive approach. Particularly in light of the regressive impact also of HB
197, we believe any additional revenue measures should be much more broad based and flat, more along the lines of HB
37.
Thank you for the opportunity to submit these comments.
_______________________
* Using the same statistical base referenced in the Fiscal Note ("the 2018 'Statistics of Income' report for Alaska
published by the Internal Revenue Service"), we estimate that HB 189 would apply only to around $17.6 billion (70%) of
the approximately $25.2 billion in resident adjusted gross income. The remainder - which falls heavily among upper
income brackets - would be excluded from tax.
2. 5/5/2021 Gmail - HB 189
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ik=d8f123d76e&view=pt&search=all&permmsgid=msg-a%3Ar-2482390746392533490&simpl=msg-a%3Ar-24823907… 2/2
Brad
Brad Keithley
Managing Director, Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets
Cell/Txt: 214-675-0038
Links: linktr.ee/bgkeithley
Mail: 645 G Street, Suite 100, No 796, Anchorage, Alaska 99501
Web: AKforSB.com