Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HJR 1 & HB165, Rep. Kreiss-Tomkin's proposed Constitutional Amendment to Guarantee the Permanent Fund Dividend
HB 202 (HFIN): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable BudgetsBrad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets with the House Finance Committee on HB 202 (Rep. Merrick) proposing a restructuring of and cuts in the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD).
Alaska's Fiscal Situation: Where We've Been, Where We're Headed (10.26.2019)Brad Keithley
This document summarizes Alaska's fiscal situation and options for addressing budget deficits. It notes that from FY2013-2020, Alaska relied on $20.72 billion in deficit financing. Projections show annual deficits averaging $1.3 billion through FY2029 even with current statutes. Options to close gaps like cuts to PFD payouts or a flat income tax are discussed, but cuts to PFD are seen as highly regressive and damaging to low-income residents. The group advocates a three-pronged approach of a PFD based on a 50/50 oil revenue formula, limiting spending growth, and a 1% flat income tax to close remaining gaps in a fair and sustainable way.
HB 202 & HB 37 (Statutory PFD Reductions): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainab...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 202 (Rep. Merrick) & HB 37 (Rep. Wool) proposing (and in the case of HB 37, some substitute revenues to reduce the level of) cuts in the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD).
HB 189 (Employment Tax for Education): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable B...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 189, the House Ways & Means Committee bill which would establish an employment tax for education.
Under current law, the Congressional Budget Office projects that deficits will increase over the next few years and remain above the 50-year average through 2028. Revenues are expected to rise as a percentage of GDP due to scheduled tax changes and economic growth, but spending on Social Security and Medicare will also increase, pushing up mandatory outlays. As a result, federal debt held by the public is projected to rise from 78% of GDP in 2018 to 96% by 2028, which would be the highest since 1946. An alternative scenario in which current policies are maintained could result in debt reaching 105% of GDP by 2028.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, to the National Conference of State Legislatures Base Camp.
The federal budget will look very different in the future compared to the past. Under current law, federal debt will be much larger relative to the economy and a much larger share of spending will go to benefits for older Americans and healthcare. To put federal debt on a sustainable path, significant changes will need to be made through reducing benefits, raising taxes, or a combination of both. The Congressional Budget Office presentation outlines these future budget challenges and some options for addressing rising spending and debt.
HB 202 (HFIN): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable BudgetsBrad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets with the House Finance Committee on HB 202 (Rep. Merrick) proposing a restructuring of and cuts in the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD).
Alaska's Fiscal Situation: Where We've Been, Where We're Headed (10.26.2019)Brad Keithley
This document summarizes Alaska's fiscal situation and options for addressing budget deficits. It notes that from FY2013-2020, Alaska relied on $20.72 billion in deficit financing. Projections show annual deficits averaging $1.3 billion through FY2029 even with current statutes. Options to close gaps like cuts to PFD payouts or a flat income tax are discussed, but cuts to PFD are seen as highly regressive and damaging to low-income residents. The group advocates a three-pronged approach of a PFD based on a 50/50 oil revenue formula, limiting spending growth, and a 1% flat income tax to close remaining gaps in a fair and sustainable way.
HB 202 & HB 37 (Statutory PFD Reductions): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainab...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 202 (Rep. Merrick) & HB 37 (Rep. Wool) proposing (and in the case of HB 37, some substitute revenues to reduce the level of) cuts in the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD).
HB 189 (Employment Tax for Education): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable B...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 189, the House Ways & Means Committee bill which would establish an employment tax for education.
Under current law, the Congressional Budget Office projects that deficits will increase over the next few years and remain above the 50-year average through 2028. Revenues are expected to rise as a percentage of GDP due to scheduled tax changes and economic growth, but spending on Social Security and Medicare will also increase, pushing up mandatory outlays. As a result, federal debt held by the public is projected to rise from 78% of GDP in 2018 to 96% by 2028, which would be the highest since 1946. An alternative scenario in which current policies are maintained could result in debt reaching 105% of GDP by 2028.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, to the National Conference of State Legislatures Base Camp.
The federal budget will look very different in the future compared to the past. Under current law, federal debt will be much larger relative to the economy and a much larger share of spending will go to benefits for older Americans and healthcare. To put federal debt on a sustainable path, significant changes will need to be made through reducing benefits, raising taxes, or a combination of both. The Congressional Budget Office presentation outlines these future budget challenges and some options for addressing rising spending and debt.
The Congressional Budget Office director presented on the current outlook for the federal budget and criteria for evaluating policy changes. Under current law, deficits will remain high and debt will exceed historical averages. Fundamental choices are needed as federal health and retirement programs grow substantially due to an aging population. To adequately reduce deficits, large cuts would be needed to spending programs, substantial tax increases, or a combination. Any policy changes involve economic and distributional tradeoffs to consider.
A primer on national debt and the debt ceiling with a focus on the 2011 debt ceiling crisis and the Budget Control Act as well as an analysis of scenarios for debt reduction in 2013
Phillip L. Swagel presents an overview of the 2021 long-term budget outlook to the Conference Board on May 20, 2021. The presentation discusses CBO projections that show growing deficits driving federal debt held by the public to unprecedented levels over 30 years, reaching over 200% of GDP by 2051. Net interest payments account for most growth in total deficits in later decades. Faster economic and productivity growth could reduce debt levels compared to current projections of slower potential GDP growth.
Douglas Elmendorf, the Director of the Congressional Budget Office, presented on the shifting priorities in the federal budget under current law. He noted that federal debt will be much larger relative to GDP than in history and spending on benefits for older Americans and healthcare will rise substantially while other spending falls. By 2020, spending on Social Security and major healthcare programs will be 50% larger than the past 40 years average while all other spending will be at its lowest level in over 70 years. This unsustainable path will require cutting benefits, raising taxes, or a combination of both.
This document summarizes a presentation by the Congressional Budget Office on how retirement wealth in the form of defined benefit (DB) and defined contribution (DC) pension plans is distributed among American families. It finds that between 1989 and 2019, retirement wealth became more concentrated, though less so than non-retirement wealth. DB assets remained more evenly distributed than DC assets. The phaseout of DB plans likely contributed to increased wealth inequality. Methodological inputs had a relatively small effect on estimates of wealth concentration.
Implementing Governor Hammond's 50/50 Plan (World Trade Center Anchorage 2.22...Brad Keithley
Governor Hammond's "50/50" plan proposes splitting the Alaska Permanent Fund's annual earnings equally between the PFD and essential government services, as Hammond originally intended. Currently, only half goes to the PFD while the other half funds an "inflation proofing" reserve and earnings reserve. Implementing 50/50 could help balance the budget over five years without cutting the PFD or raising taxes, which have severe negative economic impacts by reducing overall Alaska income and increasing poverty and income disparity. There are debates around setting a fixed draw rate from the fund to protect its long-term sustainability.
The document discusses forward-looking statements made in Credco's Annual Report on Form 10-K regarding risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from expectations. It identifies key risk factors such as credit trends affecting spending and debt payments, ability to accurately estimate losses, and fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates. The document also provides selected financial data for Credco from 2007 to 2003 and discusses critical accounting policies around reserves for losses and income taxes that require management estimates and judgments.
The document discusses recent legislative activity in Congress and regulatory actions by federal agencies. It covers topics such as the fiscal cliff negotiations, defense appropriations, agriculture issues including a potential one-year farm bill extension, education reforms, and energy policies including a natural gas export study. Upcoming hearings are also noted on various topics.
The General Fund deficit in Illinois is projected to almost double from FY2015 to FY2016, increasing from an estimated $6.8 billion to $12.7 billion. This is due to a combination of declining revenues and increasing costs. Revenues are expected to decline by $3.6 billion from FY2015 to FY2016 due to the phase down of temporary income tax increases and the loss of one-time borrowing. Meanwhile, "hard costs" like pensions, debt service, and statutory transfers are projected to rise by $1.9 billion. If spending on core services is held flat, over half of spending in FY2016 would need to be deficit spending.
Douglas Elmendorf, director of the Congressional Budget Office, gave a presentation on the federal budget and possible policy changes. He outlined that under current law, spending on Social Security and Medicare will increase relative to GDP by 2023 while the deficit will be larger than its 40-year average. The House Republican plan would balance the budget through large cuts to non-defense discretionary spending. The Senate Democratic plan would decrease the deficit through tax increases and modest cuts to defense and non-mandatory spending. Putting the debt on a sustainable path will require taxes increases or benefit cuts that impact the middle class.
Douglas Elmendorf, director of the Congressional Budget Office, gave a presentation on the federal budget and possible policy changes. He outlined that under current law, spending on Social Security and Medicare will increase relative to GDP by 2023 while the deficit will be larger than its 40-year average. The House Republican plan would balance the budget through large cuts to non-defense discretionary spending. The Senate Democratic plan would decrease the deficit through tax increases and modest cuts to defense and non-mandatory spending. Putting the debt on a sustainable path will require taxes increases or benefit cuts that impact the middle class.
In 2012, the federal government spent $531 billion on investment—for physical capital; research and development; and education and training—which represented 15 percent of federal spending and 3 percent of GDP.
Phillip L. Swagel presented CBO's updated budget and economic projections to J.P. Morgan's Virtual Investor Meeting on July 20, 2021. According to the projections, primary deficits will hover around 2% of GDP through 2029 and increase to 3% thereafter. Despite low interest rates through 2023, net interest costs will rise from 1.3% of GDP in 2024 to 2.7% in 2031. The projected deficit for 2021 increased by a third due to recently enacted legislation, while projected cumulative deficits for 2022-2031 were largely unchanged. Federal debt is projected to reach 106% of GDP by 2031, matching the previous peak in 1946.
This document from the Congressional Budget Office provides additional information on CBO's 2013 long-term projections for Social Security. It finds that:
- Social Security outlays exceeded tax revenues for the first time in 2010 and CBO projects the gap will average 12% of tax revenues over the next decade as more baby boomers retire.
- The Disability Insurance trust fund is projected to be exhausted in 2017 and the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund in 2033, though combining the two the funds would be exhausted in 2031.
- The amount of taxes paid and benefits received through Social Security varies between groups based on earnings, with higher earners paying more in taxes but receiving proportionately lower replacement rates
The document discusses the current state of the U.S. economy and outlook. It notes that GDP growth is positive but weak, consumer spending has not fallen dramatically yet, and inflation is being driven by food and energy costs. Housing markets are improving with declining excess supply and improving affordability, but home sales remain low and prices are still declining in many areas. The financial bailout aims to stabilize markets by purchasing troubled assets and increasing deposit insurance. Over the long run, lending volumes may expand as confidence returns and financial institutions consolidate.
The document is from the Congressional Budget Office and discusses the rising federal deficits and debt in the United States. It notes that under current policies, deficits are projected to increase significantly as a percentage of GDP due to factors like an aging population and rising healthcare costs. To put the budget on a sustainable path, lawmakers will need to adopt policies that increase taxes, reduce government benefits and services, or combine both. However, achieving the large amount of deficit reduction needed to stabilize rising debt levels will be very challenging.
The document summarizes key aspects of the U.S. federal budget from 2009 to projected 2015, including that total outlays and deficits have declined but remain high historically. It also notes major upcoming decisions for lawmakers, long-term issues around the growing debt, and implications of health care costs and an aging population for the budget.
This document provides calculations for the mandatory spending cuts resulting from Congress's failure to enact legislation to reduce the deficit by $1.2 trillion as required by the Budget Control Act of 2011. It finds that a total of $85 billion in cuts are required for fiscal year 2013, with $42.667 billion coming from defense programs and $42.667 billion from nondefense programs. Specifically, it calculates a 7.8% cut to nonexempt defense discretionary funding, a 5.0% cut to nonexempt nondefense discretionary funding, a 2.0% cut to Medicare, a 5.1% cut to other nonexempt nondefense mandatory programs, and a 7.9% cut to nonexe
SJR6/SB53 (HJR7/HB73): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets Comments ...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on SJR6/SB53 (HJR7/HB73), the Governor's proposed Constitutional Amendments relating to the Alaska permanent fund, appropriations from the permanent fund, and the permanent fund dividend.
Comments in opposition to SB 199 & SB 200 (2.20.2022)Brad Keithley
The comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets in opposition to Senate Finance Committee bills SB 199 & SB 200, which propose to substantially restructure and cut the Permanent Fund Dividend.
The Congressional Budget Office director presented on the current outlook for the federal budget and criteria for evaluating policy changes. Under current law, deficits will remain high and debt will exceed historical averages. Fundamental choices are needed as federal health and retirement programs grow substantially due to an aging population. To adequately reduce deficits, large cuts would be needed to spending programs, substantial tax increases, or a combination. Any policy changes involve economic and distributional tradeoffs to consider.
A primer on national debt and the debt ceiling with a focus on the 2011 debt ceiling crisis and the Budget Control Act as well as an analysis of scenarios for debt reduction in 2013
Phillip L. Swagel presents an overview of the 2021 long-term budget outlook to the Conference Board on May 20, 2021. The presentation discusses CBO projections that show growing deficits driving federal debt held by the public to unprecedented levels over 30 years, reaching over 200% of GDP by 2051. Net interest payments account for most growth in total deficits in later decades. Faster economic and productivity growth could reduce debt levels compared to current projections of slower potential GDP growth.
Douglas Elmendorf, the Director of the Congressional Budget Office, presented on the shifting priorities in the federal budget under current law. He noted that federal debt will be much larger relative to GDP than in history and spending on benefits for older Americans and healthcare will rise substantially while other spending falls. By 2020, spending on Social Security and major healthcare programs will be 50% larger than the past 40 years average while all other spending will be at its lowest level in over 70 years. This unsustainable path will require cutting benefits, raising taxes, or a combination of both.
This document summarizes a presentation by the Congressional Budget Office on how retirement wealth in the form of defined benefit (DB) and defined contribution (DC) pension plans is distributed among American families. It finds that between 1989 and 2019, retirement wealth became more concentrated, though less so than non-retirement wealth. DB assets remained more evenly distributed than DC assets. The phaseout of DB plans likely contributed to increased wealth inequality. Methodological inputs had a relatively small effect on estimates of wealth concentration.
Implementing Governor Hammond's 50/50 Plan (World Trade Center Anchorage 2.22...Brad Keithley
Governor Hammond's "50/50" plan proposes splitting the Alaska Permanent Fund's annual earnings equally between the PFD and essential government services, as Hammond originally intended. Currently, only half goes to the PFD while the other half funds an "inflation proofing" reserve and earnings reserve. Implementing 50/50 could help balance the budget over five years without cutting the PFD or raising taxes, which have severe negative economic impacts by reducing overall Alaska income and increasing poverty and income disparity. There are debates around setting a fixed draw rate from the fund to protect its long-term sustainability.
The document discusses forward-looking statements made in Credco's Annual Report on Form 10-K regarding risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from expectations. It identifies key risk factors such as credit trends affecting spending and debt payments, ability to accurately estimate losses, and fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates. The document also provides selected financial data for Credco from 2007 to 2003 and discusses critical accounting policies around reserves for losses and income taxes that require management estimates and judgments.
The document discusses recent legislative activity in Congress and regulatory actions by federal agencies. It covers topics such as the fiscal cliff negotiations, defense appropriations, agriculture issues including a potential one-year farm bill extension, education reforms, and energy policies including a natural gas export study. Upcoming hearings are also noted on various topics.
The General Fund deficit in Illinois is projected to almost double from FY2015 to FY2016, increasing from an estimated $6.8 billion to $12.7 billion. This is due to a combination of declining revenues and increasing costs. Revenues are expected to decline by $3.6 billion from FY2015 to FY2016 due to the phase down of temporary income tax increases and the loss of one-time borrowing. Meanwhile, "hard costs" like pensions, debt service, and statutory transfers are projected to rise by $1.9 billion. If spending on core services is held flat, over half of spending in FY2016 would need to be deficit spending.
Douglas Elmendorf, director of the Congressional Budget Office, gave a presentation on the federal budget and possible policy changes. He outlined that under current law, spending on Social Security and Medicare will increase relative to GDP by 2023 while the deficit will be larger than its 40-year average. The House Republican plan would balance the budget through large cuts to non-defense discretionary spending. The Senate Democratic plan would decrease the deficit through tax increases and modest cuts to defense and non-mandatory spending. Putting the debt on a sustainable path will require taxes increases or benefit cuts that impact the middle class.
Douglas Elmendorf, director of the Congressional Budget Office, gave a presentation on the federal budget and possible policy changes. He outlined that under current law, spending on Social Security and Medicare will increase relative to GDP by 2023 while the deficit will be larger than its 40-year average. The House Republican plan would balance the budget through large cuts to non-defense discretionary spending. The Senate Democratic plan would decrease the deficit through tax increases and modest cuts to defense and non-mandatory spending. Putting the debt on a sustainable path will require taxes increases or benefit cuts that impact the middle class.
In 2012, the federal government spent $531 billion on investment—for physical capital; research and development; and education and training—which represented 15 percent of federal spending and 3 percent of GDP.
Phillip L. Swagel presented CBO's updated budget and economic projections to J.P. Morgan's Virtual Investor Meeting on July 20, 2021. According to the projections, primary deficits will hover around 2% of GDP through 2029 and increase to 3% thereafter. Despite low interest rates through 2023, net interest costs will rise from 1.3% of GDP in 2024 to 2.7% in 2031. The projected deficit for 2021 increased by a third due to recently enacted legislation, while projected cumulative deficits for 2022-2031 were largely unchanged. Federal debt is projected to reach 106% of GDP by 2031, matching the previous peak in 1946.
This document from the Congressional Budget Office provides additional information on CBO's 2013 long-term projections for Social Security. It finds that:
- Social Security outlays exceeded tax revenues for the first time in 2010 and CBO projects the gap will average 12% of tax revenues over the next decade as more baby boomers retire.
- The Disability Insurance trust fund is projected to be exhausted in 2017 and the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund in 2033, though combining the two the funds would be exhausted in 2031.
- The amount of taxes paid and benefits received through Social Security varies between groups based on earnings, with higher earners paying more in taxes but receiving proportionately lower replacement rates
The document discusses the current state of the U.S. economy and outlook. It notes that GDP growth is positive but weak, consumer spending has not fallen dramatically yet, and inflation is being driven by food and energy costs. Housing markets are improving with declining excess supply and improving affordability, but home sales remain low and prices are still declining in many areas. The financial bailout aims to stabilize markets by purchasing troubled assets and increasing deposit insurance. Over the long run, lending volumes may expand as confidence returns and financial institutions consolidate.
The document is from the Congressional Budget Office and discusses the rising federal deficits and debt in the United States. It notes that under current policies, deficits are projected to increase significantly as a percentage of GDP due to factors like an aging population and rising healthcare costs. To put the budget on a sustainable path, lawmakers will need to adopt policies that increase taxes, reduce government benefits and services, or combine both. However, achieving the large amount of deficit reduction needed to stabilize rising debt levels will be very challenging.
The document summarizes key aspects of the U.S. federal budget from 2009 to projected 2015, including that total outlays and deficits have declined but remain high historically. It also notes major upcoming decisions for lawmakers, long-term issues around the growing debt, and implications of health care costs and an aging population for the budget.
This document provides calculations for the mandatory spending cuts resulting from Congress's failure to enact legislation to reduce the deficit by $1.2 trillion as required by the Budget Control Act of 2011. It finds that a total of $85 billion in cuts are required for fiscal year 2013, with $42.667 billion coming from defense programs and $42.667 billion from nondefense programs. Specifically, it calculates a 7.8% cut to nonexempt defense discretionary funding, a 5.0% cut to nonexempt nondefense discretionary funding, a 2.0% cut to Medicare, a 5.1% cut to other nonexempt nondefense mandatory programs, and a 7.9% cut to nonexe
SJR6/SB53 (HJR7/HB73): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets Comments ...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on SJR6/SB53 (HJR7/HB73), the Governor's proposed Constitutional Amendments relating to the Alaska permanent fund, appropriations from the permanent fund, and the permanent fund dividend.
Comments in opposition to SB 199 & SB 200 (2.20.2022)Brad Keithley
The comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets in opposition to Senate Finance Committee bills SB 199 & SB 200, which propose to substantially restructure and cut the Permanent Fund Dividend.
Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HJR 23 (March 12, 2018)Brad Keithley
This document provides comments from Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets opposing a proposed resolution (HJR 23) that would change how funds from Alaska's Permanent Fund are allocated and used. The group opposes key aspects of a revised version of the resolution, including uncertain allocation to Permanent Fund Dividends, a fixed draw rate, and allowing the legislature to withdraw more than the draw rate in a given year. The document outlines alternative proposals and reasons for the group's positions, citing economic impact studies and the need for constitutional provisions to be durable over time.
SJR 1 (Guarantee Perm Fund Dividend): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Bu...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on SJR 1, Sen. Wielechowski's proposed Constitutional Amendment to Guarantee the Permanent Fund Dividend
HFIN CS for HB69 (work draft presented 4.23.2021): Comments of Alaskans for S...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HFIN CS for HB69, the House Finance Committee's proposed committee substitute for HB69, the Governor's proposed operating budget.
Comments and Proposed Amendment of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 306...Brad Keithley
The comments and proposed amendment of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB306 (the proposal by Reps. Johnston & Kopp permanently to implement POMV 80/20).
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Robert Arnold, and Joshua Shakin, CBO Unit Chiefs, at a joint seminar by CBO and the Congressional Research Service.
Fitch affirms south africa at 'bb+'; outlook stableSABC News
Fitch Affirms South Africa's sovereign credit ratings at 'BB+' with a Stable Outlook. While South Africa faces challenges including low growth, high government debt, and weakening governance, the ratings affirmation reflects potential fiscal consolidation after ANC leadership elections in December. However, fiscal pressures are rising as deficits and debt are higher than expected. Political uncertainty ahead of the elections is also contributing to policy paralysis. Growth is projected to remain low at around 2% due to structural problems.
Fiscal Year 2011-2012 is referred to as the "Cliff Year" because Louisiana faces a $1.6 billion budget shortfall that will be difficult to address. Over 90% of Louisiana's $25.5 billion budget is protected from cuts, so the shortfall must be absorbed by discretionary funding, resulting in cuts over 60% to affected departments. The shortfall is projected to continue through FY2015 even with strong revenue growth, necessitating permanent budget cuts or revenue increases. Addressing the shortfall will require politically difficult decisions about taxes, fees, dedications or expenditures.
Fiscal Year 2011-2012 is referred to as the "Cliff Year" because Louisiana faces a $1.6 billion budget shortfall that will be difficult to address. While the total state budget is $25.5 billion, over 90% of funds are restricted or dedicated, leaving only $2.6 billion of discretionary general funds. Absorbing the entire $1.6 billion shortfall from this unrestricted portion would require cutting it by over 60%. Options to help close the gap include increasing some fees, cutting some statutory dedications, and reducing some unprotected non-discretionary spending, though many of these options are politically challenging.
2016 Wolfe Research Power & Gas Leaders ConferenceAES_BigSky
- The AES Corporation is an energy company led by Tom O'Flynn, Executive Vice President & CFO.
- The presentation contains forward-looking statements and discusses AES' business strategy, financial projections, and growth expectations through 2021.
- AES expects double-digit growth in free cash flow and earnings driven by $7.8 billion in construction projects under way that will come online between now and 2021.
San Joaquin Delta
Community College District
Office of Fiscal Services
5151 Pacific Avenue
Stockton, CA 95207
TO: Board of Trustees
Jeff Marsee Ph.D, Superintendent/President
District Leadership
FROM: Michael Hill, Administrative Consultant
Raquel Puentes-Griffith, Controller
SUBJECT: 2011-12 Adoption Budget
The budget development process has been much smoother this year than last. As you will see from the
presentation materials the changes from tentative to adoption are smaller in number and less dramatic
than 2010-2011. This is a more typical pattern for the unrestricted general fund portion of the budget.
The heavy lifting is normally done in preparation for the tentative budget. We do place added emphasis
on the restricted funds moving from the tentative to adoption budgets.
For the restricted funds there are no major surprises and with the effort made during this last year by the
fiscal services staff and program managers the restricted funds budgets are cleaner and reflect more
clearly the true status of programs.
Regarding the unrestricted general fund we are pleased to report that there is some revenue improvement
as a result of the state budget that was adopted but at the same time our estimate of the beginning fund
balance turned out to be higher than the actual results. We will expand on these points in this
memorandum.
We also want to provide you with a sense of what the current circumstance means for the 2012-2013
fiscal year. It has been the district strategy to approach the state funding loss in a multi-year plan and the
2011-12 budget represents the first year of the plan.
State Budget
The state budget had to confront a shortfall of $26 billion. About $13 billion was addressed back in
March through reduced funding of programs, the community colleges included. This became the best
case scenario in the evaluative process. Facing more cuts to close the gap for the remaining $13 billion,
extending taxes or a combination of both, the legislature and governor could not reach agreement on how
to proceed. The process bogged down in the usual political way.
The “May Revise” is that point where the state measures revenue flows and makes adjustments to the
revenue estimates for the next year. When that measurement occurred it was determined that the revenue
estimates could be increased which covered a portion of the $13 billion gap. In the final days of June to
get the budget out the door the revenue estimates were increased further but because there was a sense the
numbers were soft and unlikely to materialize, triggers were incorporated which would impose mid-year
cuts. The trigger date for making the determination is December 15, 2011. The triggers are as follows:
Tier 0
If between $3 and $4 billion of the new revenue materializes, no ad.
San Joaquin Delta
Community College District
Office of Fiscal Services
5151 Pacific Avenue
Stockton, CA 95207
TO: Board of Trustees
Jeff Marsee Ph.D, Superintendent/President
District Leadership
FROM: Michael Hill, Administrative Consultant
Raquel Puentes-Griffith, Controller
SUBJECT: 2011-12 Adoption Budget
The budget development process has been much smoother this year than last. As you will see from the
presentation materials the changes from tentative to adoption are smaller in number and less dramatic
than 2010-2011. This is a more typical pattern for the unrestricted general fund portion of the budget.
The heavy lifting is normally done in preparation for the tentative budget. We do place added emphasis
on the restricted funds moving from the tentative to adoption budgets.
For the restricted funds there are no major surprises and with the effort made during this last year by the
fiscal services staff and program managers the restricted funds budgets are cleaner and reflect more
clearly the true status of programs.
Regarding the unrestricted general fund we are pleased to report that there is some revenue improvement
as a result of the state budget that was adopted but at the same time our estimate of the beginning fund
balance turned out to be higher than the actual results. We will expand on these points in this
memorandum.
We also want to provide you with a sense of what the current circumstance means for the 2012-2013
fiscal year. It has been the district strategy to approach the state funding loss in a multi-year plan and the
2011-12 budget represents the first year of the plan.
State Budget
The state budget had to confront a shortfall of $26 billion. About $13 billion was addressed back in
March through reduced funding of programs, the community colleges included. This became the best
case scenario in the evaluative process. Facing more cuts to close the gap for the remaining $13 billion,
extending taxes or a combination of both, the legislature and governor could not reach agreement on how
to proceed. The process bogged down in the usual political way.
The “May Revise” is that point where the state measures revenue flows and makes adjustments to the
revenue estimates for the next year. When that measurement occurred it was determined that the revenue
estimates could be increased which covered a portion of the $13 billion gap. In the final days of June to
get the budget out the door the revenue estimates were increased further but because there was a sense the
numbers were soft and unlikely to materialize, triggers were incorporated which would impose mid-year
cuts. The trigger date for making the determination is December 15, 2011. The triggers are as follows:
Tier 0
If between $3 and $4 billion of the new revenue materializes, no ad ...
This presentation summarizes the Congressional Budget Office's long-term budget projections. It finds that U.S. debt held by the public is close to historical highs and is expected to increase rapidly in coming decades under current law. Net spending on interest and major health and retirement programs are projected to rise significantly as a share of the economy, contributing to growing deficits and debt levels that could exceed 200% of GDP by 2051.
The document summarizes key fiscal issues facing Congress and the Obama administration. It reports that the Congressional Budget Office warned that allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire and automatic spending cuts to take effect would likely trigger a recession, but continuing high deficits would hamper the government's ability to respond to future crises. It also notes that House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi predicted Congress would address the fiscal cliff in the lame duck session to avoid going over it.
This document summarizes Phillip L. Swagel's presentation to the National Association for Business Economics on March 23, 2021 about the Congressional Budget Office's 2021 long-term budget outlook. It projects that growing deficits will drive federal debt held by the public to over 200% of GDP by 2051. Net interest costs are projected to account for most of the growth in total deficits in the last two decades. Individual income tax increases are projected to account for most of the rise in total revenues relative to GDP through 2051.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
Similar to HJR1 & HB165: Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets Comments (20)
Testimony before HRES on South Central GasBrad Keithley
By invitation, we testified before the Alaska House Resources Committee on March 15, 2024, on Southcentral Gas Supply. The presentation was part of the Committee's look into the implications of the challenges currently facing Cook Inlet gas supplies.
The presentation addressed both energy and fiscal policy. Our theme was simple: " Let the market decide" and no subsidies. But if there are subsidies, they should be paid for other than through PFD cuts.
The slide-deck we used is attached here. The hearing itself is available at https://bit.ly/48YyBFf.
Presentation to Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce's Government Relations ...Brad Keithley
Our September 27, 2022, presentation to the Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce's Govt Relations Comm on Alaska's current fiscal situation and our views on the positions of the candidates for Alaska Governor in response.
The Economic Impact on Alaska of Various Fiscal Solutions (4.10.2021)Brad Keithley
This document summarizes several studies on the economic impact of different fiscal solutions for Alaska's budget deficit. The 2016 ISER study examined the impact of options like spending cuts, PFD cuts, and tax increases on income, jobs, distribution across income levels, and regions of Alaska. It found that PFD cuts would have the largest adverse impact on the economy and families. Subsequent ISER studies reinforced that PFDs significantly reduce poverty. A 2019 study argued for reduced spending and analyzed revenue options using static and dynamic models. A 2020 Tax Foundation study argued that certain taxes like sales taxes could have lower economic impact than others, but it provided limited analysis. The presentation concludes by advocating for a flat tax as the best option to
Impact of Proposed PFDCuts on Alaska Income & Jobs (Supplement to 3.4.2021 Le...Brad Keithley
This presentation is to supplement the 3.4.2021 LegFin Presentation to the Senate Finance Committee to analyze the impact of the PFDcuts discussed there on Alaska income & jobs.
Distributional Impact of Proposed PFDCuts on Alaska Families by Income Bracke...Brad Keithley
This presentation is to supplement the 3.4.2021 LegFin Presentation to the Senate Finance Committee to analyze the distributional impact by income bracket of the level of PFDcuts discussed there.
Analysis by the Legislative Finance Division of Alaska's fiscal position: how we got here, where we are and where we are headed under various alternatives.
DNR Fall 2020 Production Forecast (1.27.2021)Brad Keithley
The document provides a summary of Alaska's 2020 oil production forecast. It notes that the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted production in 2020, leading to deferred maintenance and interrupted drilling. The forecast expects average 2021 production of 470,000 barrels per day, within the range of 413,000 to 526,000 barrels per day. Currently producing fields will remain the backbone of production, while future projects under development or evaluation could help offset declining output from mature fields over the long term. However, uncertainty increases in longer-term forecasts due to risks associated with new projects.
LegFin: Preliminary Overview of the Governor's FY22 Budget (1.8.2021)Brad Keithley
The document provides a preliminary overview of Alaska's structural budget deficit and the Governor's FY2022 budget proposal. It notes that Alaska has faced nine consecutive years of budget deficits due to declining oil revenue. The Governor's budget reduces spending from the current law baseline through lower agency budgets and partial funding of items like the PFD. It draws funds from the ERA to fully pay the PFD but still faces a small deficit. The 10-year plan aims to balance the budget starting in FY2023 through dividend reductions, spending cuts, and new revenue.
Upcoming Federal Fiscal Deadlines (10.20.2020)Brad Keithley
The document outlines key fiscal and economic deadlines and expirations for 2020 through 2026, including temporary extensions of appropriations, tax provisions, and entitlement programs. Key dates include the expiration of pandemic unemployment programs and various tax extenders at the end of 2020, debt limit suspension ending in July 2021, and trust funds for Medicare, Social Security, and pensions anticipated to be exhausted between 2024-2031 based on Congressional Budget Office projections.
Concord Coalition: The Current US Fiscal Situation (October 2020)Brad Keithley
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HJR1 & HB165: Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets Comments
1. 4/19/2021 Gmail - Comments on HJR1/HB165
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ik=d8f123d76e&view=pt&search=all&permthid=thread-a%3Ar419729365103561499&simpl=msg-a%3Ar-1303811390… 1/2
Brad Keithley <bgkeithley@gmail.com>
Comments on HJR1/HB165
1 message
Brad Keithley <bgkeithley@gmail.com> Mon, Apr 19, 2021 at 7:19 AM
To: House.Ways.And.Means@akleg.gov
On behalf of the Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets project, this is to offer our comments on HJR1 & HB165.
We oppose the bills in their current form. Our reasons are these:
Background: Some argue that HJR1 & HB165 are needed in order to protect future Alaska generations from being
taxed inequitably to the disproportionate benefit of the current generation. That addresses only half of the state's current
fiscal problem, however. As we outlined to the Committee in our earlier testimony, we believe by using cuts to the
Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD), mid & lower income Alaska families also currently are being taxed inequitably to the
disproportionate benefit of upper income and non-residents. While potentially fixing the first problem, we believe HJR1 &
HB165 would exacerbate the second. As we explain, we believe that both problems should be addressed at the same
time.
HJR 1: We oppose HJR1 in its current form because it impairs the PFD. The amendment would eliminate the Permanent
Fund Earnings Reserve Account (ERA) and constitutionally fix the draw rate from the Permanent Fund (PF). As the
Committee is aware, Alaska is facing significant budget deficits from current funding sources throughout the remainder of
the decade (and likely, beyond). By eliminating the ERA and additional draws from the PF as funding options, the bill
effectively would limit the legislature's remaining options to either PFD cuts or substitute revenues. Given the legislature
(and Administrations') decisions the past five years, we have no trust that the legislature would be able to muster in such
an environment the votes necessary to adopt substitute revenues (or that the Governor would agree to the bill even if
the legislature passed it), leaving even deeper PFD cuts as the only way to close the deficit.
The problem with that, as the Committee also is aware, is that PFD cuts have the "largest adverse impact" on Alaska
families and the overall Alaska economy. Taking into account the limited funding options the bill creates and past
legislative action, we view the bill as literally targeting for adoption the option having the "largest adverse impact" on
Alaska families and the overall Alaska economy.
By constitutionally fixing both the draw rate and the PFD we believe SJR1, Sen. Wielechowski's proposed constitutional
amendment, offers a far better approach. While we have proposed some amendments which we believe would improve
SJR1 further (attached), even as is, SJR1 fixes the problems we have with HJR1. We would support HJR1 if amended to
parallel SJR1.
HB 165: Because HJR1 would move all of the ERA into the PF corpus, we understand HB165 to serve effectively as a
backup, half measure, in the event HJR1 (or SJR1) is not adopted. We oppose it in that context because, like HJR1, it
impairs the PFD.
HB165 would move $4.3 billion (roughly a third) of the most recently projected $11.7 billion realized balance remaining in
the ERA at the end of FY21 from the ERA to the PF corpus. The effect would be to reduce the projected end of year FY21
realized ERA balance to $7.4 billion, only 17% above projected FY22 UGF + PFD levels, and projected forward, the
currently projected end of year FY30 realized balance to less than $5.5 billion, significantly less than one year's projected
UGF + PFD requirement at that time.
Because of the depletion of the SBR and CBR, the ERA currently stands as the state's only remaining fiscal reserve to
help handle emergencies. In our view, allowing the reserve balance to drop roughly to and then, below, one year's
requirements would be perceived as (and is) fiscally irresponsible, increasing pressure to reduce the PFD - the funding
option having the "largest adverse impact" on Alaska families and the overall Alaska economy - even further in response.
We believe the best response to Alaska's fiscal situation is the adoption of SJR1, or something similar, which permanently
protects against both PF overdraws and PFD cuts. We believe the focus should remain on accomplishing that, not some
2. 4/19/2021 Gmail - Comments on HJR1/HB165
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ik=d8f123d76e&view=pt&search=all&permthid=thread-a%3Ar419729365103561499&simpl=msg-a%3Ar-1303811390… 2/2
half measures adopted in the interim that would increase pressure to adopt further PFD cuts.
Brad
Brad Keithley
Managing Director, Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets
Cell/Txt: 214-675-0038
Links: linktr.ee/bgkeithley
Mail: 645 G Street, Suite 100, No 796, Anchorage, Alaska 99501
Web: AKforSB.com
Gmail - Comments on SJR 1 (CONST AM_ GUARANTEE PERM FUND DIVIDEND).pdf
115K
3. 4/11/2021 Gmail - Comments on SJR 1 (CONST AM: GUARANTEE PERM FUND DIVIDEND)
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ik=d8f123d76e&view=pt&search=all&permmsgid=msg-a%3Ar-2912525628735124355&simpl=msg-a%3Ar-29125256… 1/1
Brad Keithley <bgkeithley@gmail.com>
Comments on SJR 1 (CONST AM: GUARANTEE PERM FUND DIVIDEND)
Brad Keithley <bgkeithley@gmail.com> Fri, Apr 9, 2021 at 2:09 PM
To: Senate.Judiciary@akleg.gov
This is to submit my comments on SJR 1.
I support SJR 1, with two proposed amendments.
First, I would modify Section 2, proposed (b)(1) by substituting for the percentage to be applied to the average market
value of the fund (set at 5% in the current version), the following: "the average of the real rates of return realized on
permanent fund investments over the preceding ten fiscal years." The purpose of this amendment is to establish the
draw rate based on actual experience, rather than setting a fixed number (e.g., 5% or 4% or any other fixed number).
My concern is that while a fixed number may seem reasonable currently, it may not remain reasonable over time. The
better approach is to tie the rate to actual experience.
Second, I would strike proposed (b)(2), so as to leave (b)(1) as the only calculation required to be made. The purpose of
the amendment is to make the amounts which are to be paid out in dividends and available for the general fund more
consistent. Because there can be significant variances in any given year between the amounts to be determined under
(b)(1) and (b)(2), the amount available as dividends and government may vary significantly by year, undermining the
goal of consistency and predictability.
Thank you for the opportunity to submit these comments.
Brad
Brad Keithley
Managing Director, Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets
Cell/Txt: 214-675-0038
Links: linktr.ee/bgkeithley
Mail: 645 G Street, Suite 100, No 796, Anchorage, Alaska 99501
Web: AKforSB.com