Economic Update by Craig James CommSec to Sullivan Dewing July 2015
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Economic update by Craig James, CommSec to Sullivan Dewing on July 28, 2015. The economy made simple in 17 slides.
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- 1. Craig James, Chief Economist, @CommSec July 2015
- 2. Important Information 2 This presentation has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. Before acting on the information in this seminar, you should consider its appropriateness to your circumstances and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814 (CommSec) is a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 and a Participant of the ASX Group. Examples used in this presentation are for illustrative purposes only.
- 3. …but first…. 3 Economic growth 2.75-3.25% in 2013/14 2.75-3.00% in 2014/15 Inflation 2.50-3.00% end 2014 2.50-3.00% mid 2015 Unemployment 5.50%-6.00%, end 2014 5.50-6.00%, mid 2015 Cash rate 2.50-2.75%, end 2014 2.75-3.25%, mid 2015 Sharemarket (All Ords) 5,700 points, end 2014 6,100 points, mid 2015 Australian dollar US97c end 2014 US95c mid 2015
- 5. 5 Australia In Short Could do better SoWhat? Job market risks Inflation to stay low Rates to stay low Weaker currency?
- 6. 6 Light in tunnel for business? SoWhat? Multiplier benefits; Policy implications
- 7. 7 Australia “Despite the doom and gloom and fulminations over the airwaves, in newspapers and in cyberspace, business confidence has risen in recent months.” “Perhaps we might be allowed to conclude that we have been meeting some of our challenges, thus far, with outcomes that, while not perfect, are not too bad.” Reserve Bank Governor, July 22
- 8. 8
- 10. 10 More homes being built In Short Firm housing market SoWhat? Positive for building trades Positive for retailers Need to follow cycle
- 11. 11 Job market to improve?
- 12. 12 Inflation contained In Short Headline inflation 1.5% Underlying inflation 2.3% SoWhat? Rates can stay low Pressure on margins Need to keep costs low
- 13. 13 Rising wealth
- 14. 14 Interest Rates In Short Cash rate to stay low So What? Tough for investors Forecasters divided Economy in focus Inflation is key
- 15. 15 Investments In Short Challenges for shares SoWhat? Diversification Low cash continues Mixed prospects
- 16. 16 Exchange rates In Short Much depends on US So What? Impact on travellers Impact on costs Impact on consumers Boost for business
- 17. 17 Outlook FORECASTS mid 2016end 2015 2.50-3.00%2.25-2.75%Economic Grow th 2.50-3.00%2.25-2.75%Underlying inflation 5.50-6.00%5.75-6.25%Unemployment mid 2016end 2015 1.75-2.00%1.75-2.00%Cash rate 6,000-6,2005,800-6,000Sharemarket (All Ords) US68-73cUS69-74cAustralian dollar