The document provides a disclaimer stating that any advice is general in nature and does not consider individual circumstances, and no warranty is provided regarding accuracy or completeness of the information. It advises readers to consider their own needs before making investment decisions based on the information. The global trends section discusses factors like moderate global growth, low inflation and interest rates, shrinking deficits, and monetary policies remaining stimulatory in most countries. The Australian outlook section notes growth is expected to continue but the economy is transitioning from the mining investment boom. Households remain big savers and non-mining business investment needs to increase more.

1. Disclaimer
o Any advice contained in this presentation is general advice based on the investment
merits of the security or issuer alone without taking into account any person’s investment
objectives, financial situation and particular needs.
o The information contained within this presentation was compiled by Darryl Gobbett and
he provides no warranty regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information. All
opinions, conclusions, forecasts or recommendations are reasonably held at the time of
compilation but are subject to change without notice by Darryl Gobbett who assumes no
obligation to update this presentation after it has been presented. Except for any liability
which by law cannot be excluded, Darryl Gobbett disclaims all liability (whether in
negligence or otherwise) for any error, inaccuracy in, or omission from the information
contained in this document or any loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other
person directly or indirectly through relying upon the information.
o Before making any investment or other decision based on such advice, the recipient must
decide whether it is appropriate to his/her needs or seek specific professional advice.

2. Global Trends
 Global economy looking better than expected
 Spending, Output and Profits higher than 2007 peaks
 Most major and developing economies growing
 Inflation and Interest Rates to stay very low
 Slow wages growth, fall in energy and commodity prices
 Public Sector deficits shrinking faster than expected – Australia is an exception
 Provides another bias to continued very low interest rates
 Capital markets recovery continues, perhaps too exuberantly
 Accelerating Pace of Change likely bigger issue for business survival and growth
 Increasingly severe questioning of what adds value in a business?
 How sustainable is the Value Added proposition?
 Human capital, Technology, Intellectual Property, Physical Assets
 Impact on owners’ wealth and ability to extract it

3. Global Growth Uneven, Moderate but Continuing
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2015 and July 2015 IMF WEO Update
Over 75c+ of each $1 of global growth is now from Emerging Economies
Output Growth, Inflation Adjusted, % pa
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F
United States -2.6 +2.4 +1.8 +2.8 +2.2 +2.4 +2.5 +3.0
Japan -6.3 +4.5 -0.8 +1.4 +1.6 -0.1 +0.8 +1.2
Euro Area -4.1 +2.0 +1.4 -0.7 -0.5 +0.8 +1.5 +1.7
China +9.2 +10.4 +9.2 +7.7 +7.8 +7.4 +6.8 +6.3
India +6.8 +10.1 +6.8 +3.2 +6.9 +7.3 +7.5 +7.5
Indonesia +5.7 +6.2 +6.5 +6.2 +5.3 +5.0 +5.2 +5.5
ASEAN 5 +1.7 +7.0 +4.5 +5.4 +5.2 +4.6 +4.7 +5.1
Brazil -0.6 +7.5 +2.7 +1.0 +2.7 +0.1 -1.5 +0.7
World Output -0.5 +5.1 +3.8 +3.1 +3.4 +3.4 +3.3 +3.8
Inflation: Advanced Economies
Emerging Economies
+0.1
+5.2
+1.5
+6.1
+2.7
+7.2
+2.0
+6.1
+1.4
+5.9
+1.4
+5.1
+0.0
+5.5
+1.2
+4.8
$US 6month LIBOR 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 1.2%

4. Budget Deficits Down and To Fall Further
Credit ratings and Capital markets access improving

5. Global Energy Costs back to mid 2000s levels
US shale, increased Middle East oil production, Renewables

6. Overseas Monetary Policies Remain Very Stimulatory
 Aim of most Central banks is to Increase Inflation to 2%
 Cash Rates:
 Financial Repression: Force savers to spend
 European Central Bank and Bank of Japan using Quantitative Easing
 Cash and Bond Rates at record low levels
 Official Cash*: ECB -0.2%; Japan 0.1% Bank of England 0.5%, USA 0.25% *
 10 Year Govt Bonds*: UK 2.00%, Germany 0.72%, France 1.065%, Japan 0.39%,
 Keep retail deposit and loan interest rates very low: USA eg
 Mortgages*: 30 Year fixed 3.94%, variable 3.26%; New car loan 5 years at 3.06%
 Major banks *CMA 0.14% (>$50,000), 5 year CD 0.82%; 10 year Govt Bonds 2.27%
 Quantitative Easing
 To continue in Europe, Japan and China.
 Buying long term public and private debt
 Additional offset to Budget deficit reductions
P 6
* Wall Street Journal Market Data Centre, 5/8/2015

7. Middle Class Spending, $USb equivalents, 2009 Purchasing Power
2009 2030
North America and Europe 13,740 17,174
Asia Pacific 4,952 32,596
Rest of World 2,586 5,910
Total 21,278 55,680
Source: OECD Development Centre Working Paper No 285,
The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries Jan 2010
Growth Driven by Emerging Economies’
Urbanisation & Middle Class Households

8. China Risks
 Provincial, State Owned Enterprises and City debts and guarantees
 Will be managed without undue disruption
 Low Central Government budget deficits and debt, Very high foreign currency reserves.
 Crack down on corruption, reduced regulation, more competition may reduce excesses.
 Financial markets reforms to allow greater choice for savers.
 Pollution and Ecological damage
 Remediation and Upgrading of polluting Industries
 Steel, Electricity generation, Water, Agriculture
 Opportunities for Australian Business
P 8

9. China Risks
 Ageing fast: Workforce not growing, Population about to start falling
 End of one Child policy
 Increased Social security spending; changes to residency rules
 Rising concern about care of aged population
 Transition of economy is planned and is variously happening
 From Infrastructure investment and Low priced exports
 To Household Consumption, Services, Innovation and Higher Value-added Exports
 Wages showing strong growth
 Necessary to boost consumption, reduce savings, limit social unrest
 Transition will occur but strains and delays are likely
 Recognise the unprecedented progress since late 70s
 Nationalism and Military/Political Strategic Over-reach are bigger emerging risks
P 9

10. Source: China 2030, World Bank and Development Research Centre of the State Council, the People’s Republic of China, 2012
China: Projected growth to slow, economy broadly on track

11. China’s Growth is Changing: Issue is How we Adapt
Source: RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, August 2015

12. Source: RBA Bulletin March Quarter 2015
China Outbound Tourism Growth

13. US Corporates continue to increase Profits and Cash Holdings

14. US Corporate Outlook and Implications for Australia
 US profit growth should continue into 2016
 Low Interest rates, Cheap Energy
 Productivity growing, Wages growth very slow
 US consumer outlook improving
 Increasing employment, Increasing labour force participation
 Unemployment rate now 5.5% and long term unemployment falling
 Low interest rates and high and increasing Cash holdings by US Non-Financial
Corporates boosting M&A activity in 2015 to highest levels since 2007 (Dealogic)
 For Australia
 Fall in $A and higher yields making assets more attractive to overseas investors
 Focus likely on Tourism, Agriculture, Prime commercial property and Infrastructure
 Implications for Exit strategies or competing for resources

15. The Australian Outlook: Implications for Family Business
 2015/16 likely to continue Australia’s recession free growth since 1991
 Sharp drop in commodity prices but likely to have bottomed out
 Impacts on profits, tax and investment
 $A in low $US0.70s still higher than policy makers want
 In relation to productivity, sense of entitlement, industry costs
 Issue of how the domestic economic and industrial structural change progresses
 Households still big savers and wages growth slowing
 Business non-mining investment not lifting as fast as hoped
 Public Infrastructure, Housing and Exports main contributors to growth
 Low $A helping Tourism and Education
 Interest rates staying very low well into 2016
 Tax mix increasingly seen as problem for growth, productivity and public finances
 Current focus is on increasing GST, not broader tax reform

16. The Australian Economy: The Federal Government’s Forecasts
% change, inflation adjusted
(Italicised are DG forecasts)
10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15f 15/16f 16/17
Household Consumption 3.1 3.2 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.75 3.25
New Motor Vehicle Sales, m* 1.001 1.03 1.14 1.12 1.2 1.35 1.45
Private Investment - Dwellings 3.0 -3.6 -0.1 5.1 6.5 6.5 4.5
No. of Private Dwellings Started (‘000)* 154 141 159 178 200 215 220
Business Investment – Mining
Business Investment – Non Mining
34.9
3.2
74.7
1.7
13.6
-9.7
-7.0
-3.7
-15.5
2.0
-25.5
4.0
-30.5
7.5
Private Final Demand 3 6.2 2.8 0.9 1.25 1.25 2.25
Public Final Demand 3.4 2.3 -1.3 1.6 1.25 1.5 1.5
Source: Australian Government 2015/16 Budget Paper No. 1
* DG Forecasts

17. Consumer & Business Confidence Diverging

18. The Australian Economy: The Federal Government’s Forecasts
10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15f 15/16f 16/17f
Employment, % change to June qtr 2.2 0.5 1.2 0.7 1.5 1.5 2.0
Unemployment Rate, % June qtr 4.9 5.25 5.6 5.9 6.25 6.5 6.25
Labour Force Participation Rate, % June qtr 65.5 65 65.1 64.6 64.75 64.75 64.75
Household Savings Ratio, % June qtr, trend
*DG forecast
11.4 11.5 10.5 10 9* 9* 9*
Source: Australian Government 2015/16 Budget Paper No. 1

19. Net Worth has improved again
But Households likely to remain Big Savers
Source: Reserve Bank Chart Pack May 2015Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Chart Pack August 2015

20. Spending and Housing Demand, with recent RBA and APRA moves,
likely to be more in line with Income growth
Source: Reserve Bank Chart Pack May 2015Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Chart Pack August 2015

21. Reserve Bank concern at Housing price gains as Rental market
softens and population growth slows

22. RBA Forecasts for Inflation and Growth: August 2015
$A still higher than earlier expected
Inflation still at lower end of the 2-3% range
Output Growth forecast for 2016 and Unemployment peak each revised down on May forecasts
Impact of slower population growth since 2012
Source: RBA May 2015 Statement on Monetary PolicySource: Reserve Bank of Australia Statement on Monetary Policy August 2015

23. Background to Reserve Bank’s population outlook
“The Bank’s forecasts assume that population growth will remain around its recent lower level for some time.”
RBA Statement on Monetary Policy August 2015
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Demographic Statistics Cat 3101 Dec Qtr 2014

24. Gross Investment by Major Industry Sector, $b, Current $
2010/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 6th Est
(1st Est)
15/16 2nd Est
Mining 46.9 82.0 94.7 90.4 77.8 (74.2) 52.2
Manufacturing 12.3 13.2 9.5 9.2 8.8 (6.3) 6.3
Electricity, Gas & Water 6.2 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.2 (5.0) 5.2
Construction 5.4 4.7 5.0 4.7 5.4 (1.7) 1.9
Wholesale & Retail Trade 7.4 7.5 7.4 8.1 9.0 (6.5) 6.8
Transport, Post & Warehousing 11.6 13.7 11.1 11.2 12.3 (8.4) 8.0
Rental, Hiring & Real Estate 11.9 10.5 9.8 9.6 11.9 (9.0) 8.8
Other 17.6 17.9 17.7 19.0 19.5 (13.7) 14.8
Total 119.3 154.8 160.5 158.0 149.9* (124.9)
(*Possible 145)
104.0*
(*Possible 106)
Source: ABS 5625.0 Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure December Quarter, Australia, May 2015
* Based on last 3 years’ historical
realisation ratios of Actual Investment
to the current estimate.
Private Investment Expected To Fall in 2015/16
Mining likely to fall further, Better signs in Non-Mining for 2016/17

25. Non-Mining sectors benefiting from lower $A, Asian Household Demand
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Statement on Monetary Policy August 2015

26. Wages growth slowing, lower $A helping competitiveness
Impacts on real household income, consumer demand
Source: Reserve Bank Chart Pack May 2015
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Chart Pack August 2015 and RBA Statement on Monetary Policy August 2015

27. $A consistent with weak Commodity prices but High on relative Inflation
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Chart Pack August 2015

28. Domestic Inflation and Inflation Expectations Remain Low,
Overseas factors Dampening Impacts of Lower $A
Source: Reserve Bank Chart Pack May 2015Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Chart Pack August 2015 and RBA Statement on Monetary Policy August 2015

29. Longer Term Interest Rates at cycle lows.
Markets expecting another RBA Cash Rate cut

30. Australian Share Prices & Profits
Australian Profits Still High, Investors remain Nervous

31. Forward Price/Earnings Ratios Up since May 2014,
Driven by very low interest rates but not much above 20 year averages
Australia Late 80s August 2015
ASX 200
Price Earnings Ratio (Trailing)
Dividend Yields ASX 200
10 - 16
4 - 5%
15
4.8%
Inflation 7% – 8% 1.5% – 2.5%
10 Year Govt Bonds 12% – 13% 2.85%
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Statement on Monetary Policy August 2015

32. • Political disengagement, Increased cynicism about political & business leaders
• Age of Entitlement back with a vengeance
• More rapidly changing attitudes of age and social groups re entitlements,
responsibilities
• Impacts on and from Customers, Employment, Ownership, Regulation of:
• Ageing and Increasing longevity of population
• Increased workforce participation of Females, Non-Europeans and Disabled
• Industrial Relations and Workforce regulation unlikely to be improved soon
• Likely to impede necessary shifts in workforce restructuring
• Also not assisting conditions for increased productivity within business
• Personal and Company Tax, Public sector costs high for foreseeable future
• No real appetite from either side of politics for substantive change
Change and Disruption for Family Businesses: Social and Political

33. o Wages growth slowing
• Labour shedding in Mining and related Engineering and Construction
• Delayed impact of low energy and metals prices and past high $A
• Interest rates to stay very low
• Increased Asian interest in assets and businesses
• Particularly Real Estate, Tourism, Agriculture
• Free Trade Agreements changing Rules here and overseas
• Increased Mergers and Acquisition
• Low interest rates, pace of change, value volatility
• Increased superannuation fund trustee and manager activism
• Puts often unwarranted and disruptive pressure on public companies
• This could be to the advantage of private businesses
Change and Disruption for Family Businesses: Ownership and Capital

34. • Banks
• Capital ratio changes by June 2016 to reduce investment housing finance supply
• Very well funded on Domestic deposits but expensive compared to Wholesale funding
• Growth of demand for finance for home buying and from large corporates likely to stay
slow
• Could see increased focus on SME lending
• Succession or Exit planning issues with Baby Boomers ageing
• More looking to exit businesses
• Less people looking to buy jobs
• High housing debt loads often mean less willing/able to borrow more
• Accelerating change means increasing uncertainty about business values
Change and Disruption for Family Businesses: Ownership and Capital

35. o Technology - Digitisation
• Means high expectations now of information/communication/value exchange
• On line, Real time, low/no cost, anywhere, anytime, fast, reducing attention spans
• Where does your information actually exist? Who or what controls it?
• Cloud, Fog, Internet of things
• Creates new opportunities and threats.
• Do you or your organisation exist if you are not on the first page for a search engine?
• What is your value proposition if “information” or “access” is ubiquitous or no longer
geographically limited?
• Deloitte Access Economics: The Connected Continent II (2015)
o Online “markets”: Airbnb, Uber, Airtasker, Linkedin
• Where is your location/information/presence?
Change and Disruption for Family Businesses

36. o Crowdfunding and Crowdsourcing:
• Capital, eg Kickstarter, Indiegogo, Quirky, Tilt, Venturecrowd, Pozible
• Flowhive from Byron Bay wanted $70,000, raised $US12.4m from 36,900 funders
through Indiegogo
• Charities, eg Crowdrise
• Designcrowd, 99 Designs, Kaggle (data analysis), Freelancer (ASX listed 2014, $20m net
cash)
o The most disruptive businesses often did not exist a decade ago
• Recognising or creating a need
• Innovation and speed to market
• Often now winner takes all and then gets overrun
• Size or location now often irrelevant
Change and Disruption for Family Businesses

37. • 3D Printing of literally everything is now happening
• Houses, Cars, Food, Bones, Organs, Clothes are happening just to start with
• Mass customisation on demand
• Issues for logistics, design and Intellectual Property, Economies of scale, Emerging
economies development
• Robotics, Drones
• Parts of the reason why Google has reformatted to Alphabet
• Remote medical treatment, Agriculture
• Bio sciences
• Brain plasticity: What if we all stay mentally healthy into our 100s!
• Genetics
• Individual based medicines and food
• Gene splicing; new “factories” – eg concerns at yeasts producing heroin
Change and Disruption for Family Businesses: Other

38. • Very cheap energy for foreseeable future
• US unconventional gas is global game changer for the next few decades.
• Ongoing increased efficiencies in traditional energy use
• Solar getting cheaper, More Nuclear coming
• Electric and Hydrogen cars and trucks
• Electricity storage at home, Local area electricity networks
• Autonomous cars
• Likely safer, faster, cheaper and more efficient
• Impacts on:
• Taxes for roads, Public transport, insurance premiums, drug use, licensing
• Fuelling points, Car parks, Transport networks, Taxis, Retail
• Cars becoming mainly platforms for some one else’s apps
• So what are then the “value add”, skill needs etc in the “car” industry?
Change and Disruption for Family Businesses: Other

39. Issue remains whether Productivity can lift
Or are Living Standard Expectations in for a Shock?
Source: Australian Government Tax Discussion Paper 2015
Impacts on:
• Living standards while working
• Tax needed to support the non-employed
• Business profitability
• Capital Investment
• Employment
• Share portfolio returns
• Public sector size
• Superannuation fund size and returns
• The $A
• Australia’s position in the region
• Defence capacity

40. Summary
• Pace and Breadth of change is creating increasing threats and opportunities
• Challenges to Organisations’ “Value Add” and Reasons for Existence
• If Kodak, Nokia and Australian car manufacturing can all disappear, what are your plans?
• Risk Management and Governance will become even broader concepts
• Do you stress test your ability to survive or adapt?
• Do you understand the potential collateral damage/benefits new technologies can bring?
• Do you understand the challenges to clients, supply chains, competitors, owners etc?
• All businesses are struggling with structural and cyclical changes
• The focus has to be outward
• Being more competitive and adaptive
• Strongly lifting productivity
• How do we each fit with those requirements?
• Increasing short term pressures on public companies
• Private and family businesses may be at a relative advantage