Introduction to climate change impacts worldwide scenario, over the years and projected impacts in near future, preparedness alert to fishing communities for Combating climate change and coastal resilience. Alternative livelihoods oppertunities, and ecosystem restoration, ecosystem based fisheries management. Sustainable fishing conservation of fish stocks, mitigate multiple anthropogenic impacts through community participation in fisheries management.

1. Combating climate change: how prepared are
poor fishing communities in the World
By:
Bhukya Bhaskar
Fisheries

2. Introduction
• Climate change is one of the major issues facing the fisheries
sector.
• Variations in ocean water temperatures and changes in currents
and acidification as well as extreme weather events, have, and will
increasingly have, significant impacts for fish stocks and the fishing
industry in both the short and long term.
• more, around 60 million people are employed in the fisheries and
aquaculture sector globally, and over 80 % of them are small-scale
producers, mostly in developing countries. For many, climate
change is a genuine threat to their way of life.
• Fishing communities around the world are adapting to combat
climate change by implementing strategies like sustainable
fisheries management, monitoring changing fish populations,
diversifying species caught, utilizing climate data to predict shifts
in fish distribution, and collaborating with researchers to
understand climate impacts, allowing them to adjust fishing
practices accordingly and build resilience against changing ocean
conditions.

3. Cont…
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts that mean sea
surface temperatures will increase by between 0.33°C and 1.29°C by 2050,
relative to 1986-2005 averages under best- and worst-case emissions
scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5).
• Further, in 2019, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
forecasted that mean sea surface temperatures will increase by between
0.33°C and 1.29°C by 2050.
• Increasing sea surface temperature will lead to changes in where fish are
found as well as their size, growth rates and survival, with global fisheries
catches forecast to decrease by between 3.4% and 24.1% by the end of the
century.
• The resulting geographical redistribution of fish stocks will be uneven.
Higher latitude regions are expected to see an increase in catch potential,
while tropical regions could see a decrease.
• Further, by 2030, almost one in four transboundary stocks are expected to
move, shifting the balance of fish stocks across maritime borders.
• Fisheries are already, and will increasingly be, affected by climate change in
a number of ways. The year 2023 was the hottest on record for global sea
surface temperatures, according to data from the European Union’s
Copernicus Climate Change Service (Copernicus, 2023)

4. Cont…
• They also predicted that such increases in sea surface temperatures will be
associated with gradual changes in ocean currents and increasing acidification (that
is, a decreasing of ocean pH ), leading to changes in where fish are found as well as
their size, growth rates and survival (IPCC, 2019[3]).
• In addition, climate change is leading to more frequent and more severe marine
heatwaves, which have more immediate impacts on fisheries and pose specific
challenges to fisheries managers.
• Understanding how fisheries are and will increasingly be impacted by climate
change is fundamental for effective climate adaptation.
Average daily sea-
surface temperature
between 60° north
(latitude of Oslo) and
60° south (edge of
Antarctic continent)
Source: (Copernicus,
2023)

5. Key approaches by fishing communities:
• Adaptive fisheries management:
• Adjusting fishing quotas and seasons based on real-time data on
fish stocks and their movement patterns due to climate change.
• Climate vulnerability assessments:
• Identifying which fish species are most vulnerable to climate
impacts and prioritizing conservation efforts for them.
• Species diversification:
• Expanding the range of fish species caught to reduce reliance on
single species affected by climate change.
• Aquaculture development:
• Integrating aquaculture practices to supplement wild catches,
especially when fish populations decline in certain areas.
• Monitoring and data collection:
• Utilizing advanced technology like satellite imagery and sensors to
track changing ocean conditions and fish migration patterns.

6. Challenges faced by fishing communities:
• Limited access to information and technology:
• Many small-scale fishing communities lack the
resources to access climate data and implement
advanced monitoring systems.
• Overfishing pressure:
• Existing overfishing issues can exacerbate the
impacts of climate change on fish populations.
• Socioeconomic vulnerability:
• Climate change can disproportionately affect
communities heavily reliant on fishing for their
livelihoods.

7. Important roles of governments and organizations:
• Supporting research and data sharing:
• Funding scientific studies to understand climate impacts on
fisheries and disseminating this knowledge to fishing
communities.
• Policy development and enforcement:
• Implementing sustainable fishing regulations and managing
marine protected areas to protect vulnerable ecosystems.
• Capacity building:
• Providing training and financial assistance to fishing
communities to adapt to changing conditions.

8. Impacts on fisheries from climate change
• 1. Global abundance of fish stocks will decline on
average:
Almost all fishing regions are likely to experience
reductions in total abundance of fish in the future due to
climate change-driven influences, notably increases in
ocean temperatures and ocean acidification (IPCC, 2019).
• Estimate that tropical regions could see a decrease in
abundance of around 40%, while higher latitude regions
around the arctic could see an increase in catch potential.
• As a result of these trends, the IPCC estimates that global
fisheries catches could decrease by between 3.4% and
24.1% by the end of the century under their best- and
worst-case emissions scenarios

9. Projected global mean surface sea temperature increase relative to
1850-1900

10. Forecast change in maximum fisheries catches under RCP
2.6 and 8.5 warming scenarios
• The most important factor affecting potential catches in the models used is the changing
availability of food (plankton) under different water temperature scenarios. Other factors
included in the models which are of lesser importance are the direct effect of warmer water
on fish growth and survival, temperature induced changes to habitat, changes to oxygen
levels and the effects on predators and prey of changes in abundance of other species in the
model (FAO, 2018[8]). Source: (IPCC, 2019

11. Cont…
• 2. The location of fish stocks will change :
• example of some a more significant observed changes in
range driven by climate change is the expansion in the range
of short- and long-finned squid3 in the North Sea by around
500 km2 over the last 35 years due, in part, to warmer
waters in winter (Kooij, Engelhard and Righton, 2016).
• Shifts in the ranges of marine species are expected to
continue at a rate of between tens and hundreds of
kilometres per decade for affected species.
• For fisheries managers this could undermine
management by reducing the effectiveness of some
spatial management measures, creating a need for new
co-management arrangements.

12. 3. Marine heatwaves will increasingly affect fisheries : Studies estimate
that annual marine heatwave days have doubled between 1982 and
2016, with increases in both the frequency and duration (Oliver et al.,
2018[27]; Frölicher, Fischer and Gruber, 2018[26]).
• The IPCC forecasts that this trend will continue, with the global
average number of marine heatwave days increasing to 4-12 times
current levels by 2100. The largest increases are expected in arctic
and tropical waters (IPCC, 2019)
Occurrence of major marine
heatwaves between 2000 and 2021
Projected increase in annual marine
heatwave days under IPCC best-case
(RCP 2.6) and worst-case (RCP 8.5)
emissions scenarios

13. • 4. Ocean acidification :
• The world’s oceans are becoming more acidic as they absorb CO2
from the atmosphere (OECD, 2021[38]), with potentially negative
consequences for fisheries.
• Effects of ocean acidification will vary between regions, with ocean
currents and local geography leading to faster increases in acidity in
some areas than others.
• Hilmi et al. (2015) note that increased ocean acidity will negatively
impact the ability of certain plankton and molluscs to build their
shells and other structures, especially during juvenile stages.
• This will in turn affect finfish through reduced availability of plankton
as food.
Projected global mean surface pH change
relative to 1850-1900

14. Possible fisheries policy responses to climate change

15. Effects of different factors on sustainable fish stocks globally
Impact of best practice fisheries management on global fish stocks, under different
climate scenarios

16. • Ecosystem-based fisheries management can help build the resilience of the
resource base :
• climate change can affect all the aspects of an ecosystem that are typically
considered in fisheries management decisions including:
• water temperature • the abundance of predator and prey species • the quality of
habitats • the strength of currents • prevailing winds, rainfall and freshwater flows.
• A study of 1 250 global fisheries concluded that only 24 of them, or 2%, included
ecosystem factors in the quantitative aspect of their management plans or stock
assessments (Skern‐Mauritzen et al., 2015).
• Qualitative consideration of ecosystem effects in stock assessments or
management plans is more common.
• For example, according to Fisheries and Oceans Canada, in 2019, ecosystem
factors were included qualitatively in 31% of stock assessments in Canada and
quantitatively in 21% (DFO, 2019; DFO, 2019).
• The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) reports that just
under 50% of their stock assessments considered ecosystem factors in some way
(Trenkel et al., 2023[51]).
• In the area of fisheries economics, a recent survey revealed that ecosystem
services are also the most under-researched aspect in this field (Thébaud et al.,
2023

17. Examples of lessons learned from including climate and ecosystem
effects in stock assessments

18. Actions to reduce and mitigate the impacts of climate change on fisheries

21. • Prepare for Emerging Fisheries Management and Allocation Challenges
• One of the most immediate impacts of climate change is the shift in
distribution of natural marine resources (Perry et al. 2005; Nye et al. 2009;
Pinsky et al. 2013; Erauskin-Extramiana et al. 2019). As species move, the
potential for new fishing opportunities develop (Cheung et al. 2012),
coupled with the responsibility to sustainably manage the emerging
resources (Madin et al. 2012) and complicated by the potential for new
species–gear interactions or species–species interactions. There are also
major outstanding social questions regarding the impacts on individuals,
portside infrastructure, and communities whose identity, investments, and
traditions are tightly linked with specific natural resources and placed in
potential jeopardy when these resources move. Shifts in distributions can
create a need for both short-term emergency management actions and
proactive, longer-term regulatory actions, particularly around gear
interactions, access, and allocation. Specifically, balancing quota distribution
can be challenging if the spatial allocation of quota is tied to permits or
jurisdictions based on historical information rather than on the current
distribution of harvested species.
• Reactive Management

22. • Proactive Planning
• Another emerging fishery that prompted new
management action by the MAFMC was the quickly
expanding Atlantic Chub Mackerel Scomber
colias fishery. The fishery for Atlantic Chub Mackerel
developed rather rapidly in the mid-Atlantic, likely
related to increasing temperature. Atlantic Chub
Mackerel landings were first limited as part of an
unmanaged forage omnibus amendment
(MAFMC 2017). The amendment was developed to
protect over 50 previously unmanaged forage species
from increasing fishing pressure until the MAFMC had
sufficient time to examine scientific information
relating to the stock, the impact of fishing pressure on
the ecosystem, and the impact on socioeconomic
factors (MAFMC 2017).

23. • Allocation
• As species shift, allocation challenges among
communities, states, and countries will only increase
(Pinsky et al. 2018), requiring a systematic method for
dealing with the redistribution of quota. Within any
allocation system, there are a few components that are
essential: a single or similar assessment of stock status
and abundance, pre-agreed-upon terms that specify
how quota will be divided and how the division of
quota would change if conditions change, and an
understanding that the negotiating power of certain
entities may change considerably as stocks move
(Miller and Munro 2004)

24. Cont…
• Adjust Reference Points as the Environment Changes
• Changes in the environment can alter stock productivity,
challenging assumptions of stationarity and potentially
invalidating traditional approaches to reference point-based
management (Quinn and Deriso 1999; Tableau et al. 2019).
Warming waters can increase the productivity of some stocks
(Hare et al. 2010) and decrease the productivity of others
(Fogarty et al. 2008; Bell et al. 2014), often based on whether
stocks are at the northern or southern extent of their range
(Rijnsdorp et al. 2009). Although a fish stock is typically
considered a single population unit, individuals at the leading
and trailing edges of a species’ range can be subject to more
frequent and more severe conditions than individuals in the
core range, potentially requiring additional attention (Rehm
et al. 2015; Robinson et al. 2015).

25. • Conservation/Management Areas
• Conservation or spatial management areas have been
used for diverse purposes from advancing broad
conservation goals, such as maintaining biodiversity, to
specific objectives, such as maintaining habitat or
decreasing fishing interactions with a specific
threatened or endangered species.
• Spatial management areas, often grouped under the
term “marine protected areas” (MPAs), cover a broad
range of designations from areas with limitations on
particular activities (e.g., oil and gas restrictions) to
complete closure of an area to extractive activities.
• Within fisheries, MPAs have been used broadly and are
part of the management tool kit for both reducing
mortality and improving productivity for fisheries.

26. • Evaluate Management Against a Range of Regional
Scenarios for Anthropogenic Climate Change
Impacts on Ocean Habitats and Ecosystems
• Integrate Monitoring and Evaluation of Climate
and Ecosystem States into the Management Cycle
• Regulatory Frameworks and Policies: Top-Down
• Regulatory Frameworks and Data Collection:
Bottom-Up
• Reduce Barriers to Adaptation Across all Levels

27. Managing fisheries for climate adaptation requires effective
institutions
• In fisheries where stocks shift between EEZs and high seas jurisdictions,
RFMOs must address any redistribution of fish to areas which not all fishers
may be able to access, as well as make adjustments to overall TACs (OECD,
2011).
• A high-level review of 12 RFMOs’ readiness to adapt to climate change
noted the biggest challenges are likely to be the sharing of moving fish
stocks across political boundaries and enforcing agreements.
• However, it also found that these organisations were well equipped to
adapt as needed (Pentz et al., 2018).
• Improved mechanisms for making decisions on access to stocks that cross
political boundaries would better prepare RFMOs for the effects of climate
change.
• A review of the effectiveness of RFMO decision making during COVID-19
disruptions noted that RFMOs could benefit from measures such as
reviewing decision timelines, establishing efficient voting protocols and
objection procedures, or formalising extraordinary processes such as
introducing special clauses or frameworks for disruptive events in the
future (OECD, 2021)

28. Addressing the socio-economic impacts of climate change may
require targeted measures
• Vulnerability assessments can help governments
protect communities from the negative impacts of
climate change.
• 1.United States: The National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is undertaking
climate vulnerability assessments for major species
in six regions, taking into consideration social and
economic factors (Peterson and Griffis, 2021).
• The key goal of these assessments is to better
understand the mechanisms by which climate
change affects key species, and the flow-on effects
to communities

29. • 2. Korea: The Korean Maritime Institute has assessed the
climate vulnerability of aquaculture, including social and
economic factors (Kim, Brown and Kim, 2019; Lee, Kim and
Cho, 2011).
• Fourteen species were assessed for their vulnerability to sea
temperature changes and climate related disasters.
• The ability of producers to adapt and the impact on their
financial viability were also considered.
• The results showed that species with high temperature
sensitivity and where producers have little control over the
different growing stages, such as seaweeds and molluscs,
were most vulnerable.
• Finfish aquaculture was less vulnerable due to their lower
temperature sensitivity and the ability to of producers to
control some aspects of the farming environment.

30. • 3. European Union: There are various studies on vulnerability, including
social and economic factors, in European Union fisheries.
• Most notable are the Climate change and European aquatic RESources
(CERES) (Peck et al., 2020) and Horizon ATLAS projects (Payne et al., 2021;
ATLAS, 2020; European Commission, 2020[67]; European Parliament, 2020).
• Recent studies, such as an investigation of the 17 most important
commercial species in the Mediterranean by Hilmi et al. (2023), are
increasingly taking into account not just ecological factors, but also the
dependence of economies on fishing and their ability to adapt.
• Another study, as part of the Horizon ATLAS project, conducted a climate
risk analysis for 157 species across the European Union, considering
lifespan, habitat, species mobility and temperature sensitivity, along with
which fishers and regions would then be most vulnerable economically
(Payne et al., 2021).
• The study suggests that there are three main aspects, which define fishing
regions most at risk from climate change: high dependence on fishing for
employment, high dependence on a small number of species and low
profitability of parts of the fishing fleet

31. • 4. Australia: The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organisation (CSIRO) has conducted a climate sensitivity and vulnerability
assessment of 1et al., 2018).
• Similar to the results of the NOAA assessments, the most vulnerable species
in all regions were those with specific habitat needs and high commercial
value.
• These included abalone, lobster, beche-de-mer (sea cucumber) and fish and
prawns living between salt and freshwater habitats. This assessment
process has now been described in a user-friendly format that can be
regularly applied to different fisheries.
• The process begins with a science-based assessment of the potential
ecosystem and fisheries impacts of climate change.
• This is then followed by in-depth consultation with fishers and fisheries
managers to see how fishers might respond to potential changes.
• Finally, a suite of policy responses is available which can be tailored to each
of the individual situations.
• This policy handbook is available from the CSIRO (CSIRO, 202001 species in
24 fisheries (Fulton)

32. • 5. New Zealand: The national fisheries management
agency, Fisheries New Zealand, has used expert
assessments of three major species with good data
availability to rate them for vulnerability to climate
change from low to very high.
• The vulnerability of the three species, paua (abalone),
snapper and hoki, was respectively assessed as very
high, moderate and low.
• The assessment process can be applied to any species
where sufficient data is available, and considers
factors such as stock status, life-cycle and growth,
habitat requirements, predator and prey
relationships, mobility, and sensitivity to changing
water temperature, quality and conditions (Cummings
et al., 2021)

33. Combating climate change: how Prepared are poor
fishing communities in south Asia
• India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Maldives members of BOBP-IGO
carried out studies on impact of Climate change on fisheries &
mitigation/preparedness strategies to counter such impact.
• India with fleet of 59000 Mechanized crafts, >76000 motorized crafts
and >105,000 non motorized craft. Indian Oil sardine and Indian
mackerel reported to shown signs of changing habitats towards
north during last two decades.
• On 30 June 2008, India released its first National action plan on
climate Change outlining current & future policies on climate
mitigation & adaptation.

34. Building Climate-Ready Fisheries and Fishing Communities
• Adaptive capacity in fisheries management broadly falls into two
categories: First, the options within rules that govern a particular
fishery (known as the “internal margins” of adaptive responses), such
as the timing of a fishing season, the amount of catch allowed, or the
type of fishing gear used.
• Second, the options that apply across fisheries (known as the
“external margins”), such as allowing fishers to catch species other
than those covered by existing permits.
• Most studies and policy discussions to date focus on changes to
external margins; in particular, temporarily allowing fishers access to
fisheries for which they lack permits (e.g., to mitigate unexpected
closures of primary fisheries) or diversifying a fisher’s portfolio of
permits (to mitigate the risk from any one fishery).

35. Management Actions for Adaptive Capacity Across
Permit Dimensions. Blue
(orange) text represents internal (external) margin
management tools.

36. 4 major Ways to small-scale fishers are weathering the climate change storm –
and becoming part of the solution.
1. Fishers mitigate against climate change
• Fishing and aquaculture generally emit less greenhouse gas per unit of protein than other food industries, while
small-scale fishers tend to employ lighter boats that are often powered by wind sails.
• Even when these are motorized, they are usually used for short trips and don’t use much fuel
• 2. Fishers adapt to climate change
• IFAD helps small-scale fishers adjust how they work to adapt to a changing climate while protecting critical habitats,
monitoring stocks and even closing off fishing periods to protect young and breeding species.
• In the Philippines, fishers patrol their waters to put a stop to exploitative fishing.
• 3. Fishers restore ecosystems:
• In Eritrea, fishing communities have developed “social fencing” accords in which they collectively agree to not exploit
protected areas. By setting up mangrove nurseries, and replanting trees, they’ve increased mangrove coverage by 86
per cent. And they’re moving from subsistence fishing towards diversified livelihoods, including fishing sustainably,
producing organic fertilizer and collecting honey from the mangrove.
• In Senegal, women fishers conserve mangroves and harvest oysters and honey.
• 4. Fishers build resilience :
• By diversifying the range of species they cultivate through aquaculture, fishing communities are not reliant on a
single product. This makes them resilient against new conditions, like changing fishery patterns and the effects of
climate change.
• For example, seaweed is high-value, easy to grow and yields nutritious foods for humans and animals alike. It’s also a
source of fertilizer and biofuels, which helps reduce dependency on fossil fuels.
• Working with AFDP, coastal communities on the island of Zanzibar in Tanzania are growing native strains of seaweed
that are more resilient to climate impacts. With the project’s help, they are improving the quality of seaweed seeds,
investing in production methods that increase yields and save labour, and devising ways to process and add value to
seaweed products.
• In Nigeria and Ghana, cage aquaculture gives a greener way to farm fish.

37. Hassan Basri Heremba
harvests seaweed in Sisir
village, West Papua.
IFAD/Joanne Levitan
A woman in Senegal takes care of the
oyster garlands along the banks of the
Delta of Saloum, a tropical ecosystem
of mangroves. IFAD/Ibrahima Kebe
Diallo
Small-scale fishers emit less
greenhouse gas. IFAD/Dhiraj
Singh

38. References
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https://emodnet.ec.europa.eu/en/map-week-%E2%80%93-predicted-climate-change-impactatlantic-cod-habitat. [67]
European Parliament (2020), Draft report on the consequences of rising seawater temperatures for fish stocks and
fisheries (2019/2163(INI)), https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/PECH-PR-660174_EN.pdf.
• FAO (2021), Adaptive management of fisheries in response to climate change, FAO, https://doi.org/10.4060/cb3095en.
[54]
• FAO (2021), Recent advances in climate change vulnerability/risk assessments in the fisheries and aquaculture sector,
FAO, https://doi.org/10.4060/cb4585en. [61]
• FAO (2018), Impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture, FAO, https://www.fao.org/3/I9705EN/i9705en.pdf.
[8]
• Fiechter, J. et al. (2021), “Projected Shifts in 21st Century Sardine Distribution and Catch in the California Current”,
Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol. 8, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.685241. [12]
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and lessons from key case studies”, Fish and Fisheries, Vol. 24/4, pp. 652-674, https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12753. [33]
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360-364, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0383-9. [26]
• Fulton, E. et al. (2018), Decadal scale projection of changes in Australian fisheries stocks under climate change,
https://www.frdc.com.au/sites/default/files/products/2016-139-DLD.pdf
• ICES (2023), Mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in subareas 1-8 and 14, and in Division 9.a (Northeast Atlantic and adjacent
waters), International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.21856533. [18]
• ICES (2022), Joint ICES/ NMTT Workshop launching the Nordic Climate Change Forum for Fisheries and Aquaculture
(WKNCCFFA), International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.10036.
• https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/topics/policy-sub-issues/fisheries-
sustainability/How_to_adapt_fisheries_to_climate_change.pdf/_jcr_content/renditions/original./How_to_adapt_fishe
ries_to_climate_change.pdf
• https://media.rff.org/documents/WP_24-06.pdf
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