The document discusses the complexities and challenges of climate policy, particularly in the context of transitioning to low carbon electricity generation. It emphasizes the importance of socio-technical systems, complex adaptive systems, and agent-based modeling to understand and model climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. Key findings suggest that carbon taxes provide clearer investment signals compared to emissions trading schemes, and effective collaboration in data collection is essential for developing resilient electricity infrastructures.

1. Climate policy
L. Andrew Bollinger
PhD student
Infrastructure Systems & Services Department
Faculty of Technology, Policy & Management
TU Delft
1 March 2012
INCAH

2. Effective policy?
Impact

3. The challenge of complexity
Complexity
Irrational actors Impact

4. The EU Emissions Trading Scheme
- The Wall Street Journal, 2010
• High volatility
• Price crashes
• Gaming
• Windfall profits
Image source: Z.H. Feng, et al. Carbon price volatility: Evidence from EU ETS. Applied Energy 88 (2011) 590–598.

5. Climate policy
How can we bridge the gap between intervention and impact?
? Impact

6. Our approach
1. Socio-technical systems
The European electricity network The European “Facebook” network
Image source: http://www.r-bloggers.com/graphics-and-statistics-the-facebook-map/

7. Our approach
1. Socio-technical systems
2. Complex adaptive systems
Emergence of a starling flock
Emergence of a solar PV infrastructure
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcpBz7qri1U
Image source: http://www.amusingplanet.com/2011/11/acrobatic-display-of-starling.html

8. Our approach
1. Socio-technical systems
2. Complex adaptive systems
3. Agent-based modeling
Modeling the flocking of birds Modeling the transition to a low carbon power sector

9. An example – climate change mitigation policy
The question:
Which policies can enable a transition to low carbon electricity
generation?
The policies:
1. Emissions trading scheme
2. Carbon taxation scheme
3. No intervention

11. An example – climate change mitigation policy
The question:
Which carbon policy/ies can enable a transition to low carbon
electricity generation?
The policies:
1. Emissions trading scheme
2. Carbon taxation scheme
3. No intervention
Results:
• Price uncertainty can be a major deterrent to investment in low-carbon
generation technologies
• A carbon tax sends a much clearer and more predictable signal to
investors

12. An example – infrastructure adaptation to climate change
The question:
How can we support the development of climate resilient electricity
infrastructures?

13. (1) De Groot, 2006
(2) Wilbanks, et al, 2008
(3) Rothstein and Halbig, 2010
(4) Bresser, et al, 2005

14. An example – climate change adaptation policy
The question:
How can we support the development of climate resilient electricity
infrastructures?
Uncertainty:
• Climate change uncertainty
• Socio-economic uncertainty
• Technological uncertainty
• …

15. An example – climate change adaptation policy
The question:
How can we support the development of climate resilient electricity
infrastructures?
The approach:
• Exploratory modeling - expose the modeled system to a large range of
possible futures
• Seek robust policies, and policies that hedge against the worst
possible consequences.
• Identify sufficient solutions and understand key dynamics, e.g. tipping
points

16. Collaborative data cultivation
The question:
How can we combine data from different sources, collaboratively
upgrade it and make it openly available?
Enipedia.tudelft.nl – a collaborative platform for the cultivation of energy and industry data

17. Collaboration
• We can’t navigate complexity on our own

18. Collaboration
• We can’t navigate complexity on our own TU Delft
• We need to bring together data, e.g. about Climate
sea-level rise, extreme weather and
infrastructures.
Institute

19. Thank you