The document discusses the history and future of renewable energy markets, arguing that [1] environmental concerns, especially around climate change, have been and will continue to be the key driver, [2] current policy instability stems partly from ambivalence but climate change requires bold action, and [3] the future will be defined by a struggle between preserving fossil fuel industries and building out clean energy technologies sufficiently to stabilize the climate.

1. The Fundamental Context for Renewable Energy
Markets: The Environmental Imperative
(especially Climate) as the key driver past,
present and future
Seth Kaplan
Vice President for Policy and Climate Advocacy, Conservation Law Foundation
EUCI REC Market Conference
October 10, 2012
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2. Environmental Imperatives: Past, Present and Future
• Where did these markets come from?
– The environmental interests led broad coalition: explicit decision to “move the cheese”
and build a new market that would have positive impact on emissions
• Current state of instability in part due to policy ambivalence
– New Jersey and Maine are great case studies in the odd mix of ideological and
political pressures that are playing out on the ground
• The future is defined by a struggle between those preserving entrenched
investments and the enviro-clean energy coalition
– The climate imperative means that we can not play around with (just) niche clean
energy plays – we need the boldness that nuclear and oil industries have shown in
defending their policy and financial supports because we need zero emissions energy
technologies to “go big” in a very significant way
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3. Fundamental Context: A Warming World
Various govt. and academic models and papers compiled, with citations at
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/05/ohc-modelobs-comparison-
errata/

4. On a highway to hell: “business as usual” buys us radically
different planet. Scary part: this is looking conservative
12 C change (current trajectory gets us there by 2300) likely means over half of
earth’s surface totally uninhabitable by humans and similar animals. Sherwood &
Huber, An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress (2010).

5. The Electricity Sector is the “hinge” for the whole economy
– illustrative example from European Roadmap 2050
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6. Achieving these reductions require massive solar & wind ramp up
– 3 scenarios from EU Roadmap 2050 show general direction
Note, new fossil assumed
to have carbon capture
post 2030, generally
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7. The ultimate “Valley of Death” question
One sad possibility: we might be HERE in history
of renewable energy deployment in the U.S.
• Will we make the journey needed to build a safer world?
• Will we accept that there are snipers shooting at us as we make the journey?
– Why was Solyndra a big deal?
– Taking on the most profitable companies & industries in the history of money
– Enviro community finally fighting back: 350/McKibben “Do the Math”, CLF – Cape
Wind Now ! campaign.
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8. Mass. Global Warming Solutions Act and regional climate
consensus – policies that are needed to drive carbon price
are alive, well and in effect here
New Synapse Energy Economics
analysis: Mild climate policy yields
carbon prices $25 - $70/ton
The challenge for the New England
states, and Connecticut and
Massachusetts in particular, is
whether we will live up to the science
motivated mandates on the books –
getting beyond the artificially low
prices set by RGGI. Tremendous need
for honesty in what emissions
reducing steps are being taken and
what effects they will have.
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9. The Bottom Line: Renewable Energy markets and
environmental policy cannot be separated
• As oil and coal retires there is a need for new Megawatts
• Only candidates on the field are Demand, Renewables and Gas (even if
you see role for nuclear down the line, it isn’t happening soon)
• Fast ramp gas and flexible load (and hydro) can fit together with variable
renewables to build a portfolio for the short to medium term
• But environmental and especially, climate, imperative limits long term role
of gas (and to some extent large hydro)
• Are the right signals going to be sent? And in time?
Being right at the wrong time can be a disaster,
for you and (as it turns out) for the planet . . .
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