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- 1. Click to edit Master title style • ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles _____ _____ – Second level ____ _____ • Third level _____ _____ ____ _____ – Fourth level » Fifth level Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level Sea Level Change in AR5 Roderik van de Wal, Utrecht University Review editor chapter 13 WGI 10/19/2013 2
- 2. What drivesMaster title style sea level changes? Click to edit • ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles _____ _____ – Second level ____ _____ • Third level _____ _____ ____ _____ – Fourth level Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level » Fifth level 10/19/2013 Figure 13.1 AR5 3
- 3. Antarctica+Greenland Click to edit Master title style • ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles Antarctica Greenland _____ _____ Second level – Second level ____ _____ Third level • Third level _____ _____ Fourth level ____ _____ – Fourth level Fifth level » Fifth level 10/19/2013 Shepherd et al 2012 Antarctica more constrained, Greenland decay rate faster 4
- 4. Cryospheric contribution Click to edit Master title style • ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles _____ _____ – Second level ____ _____ • Third level _____ _____ ____ _____ – Fourth level Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level » Fifth level 10/19/2013 Extended version of Fig 4.17 AR5 5
- 5. Future Master title style projections Click to edit • ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles _____ _____ – Second level ____ _____ • Third level _____ _____ ____ _____ – Fourth level Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level +40-50% » Fifth level 10/19/2013 Figure 7b, SPM 6
- 6. AR5 versus AR4 style Click to edit Master title • ____ __ ____ Master____ styles Click to edit Master_____ text ______ Click to edit text styles _____ _____ – Second level ____ _____ • Third level _____ _____ ____ _____ – Fourth level Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level » Fifth level 10/19/2013 So for +4K 1/3 caused by increased response; 2/3 by higher offset! (commitment) ice sheets.. 7
- 7. Concluding remarksstyle Click to edit Master title -Sea level recent passed reasonably explained • ____ __ ____ per degree increased styles Click tolevel response Master____ ______ Clickedit Master_____ text to edit text styles -Sea _____ _____ – Second level ____ _____ -Sea level regional • Third level _____ _____ ____ _____ – Fourth level Second level Third level variable Fourth level Fifth level -Sea level projections higher » Fifth level Unknowns -coastal processes -temporal variability -low probability issues 10/19/2013 8