Presentation by Andy Stirling, co-director of the ESRC STEPS Centre science director of SPRU on 'The Direction of Innovation and new challenges in the governance of technology'. This was presented to a conference on ‘Tilting perspectives on regulating technologies’ at TILT – Tilburg Institute for Law, Technology, and Society, Tilburg University, the Netherlands on 11 December 2008

1. The Direction of Innovation: new challenges in the governance of technology Andy Stirling, SPRU science and technology policy research presentation to conference on ‘ Tilting perspectives on regulating technologies’ at TILT – Tilburg Institute for Law, Technology, and Society, Tilburg University, the Netherlands, 11 th December 2008

2. 1: directionality in science, technology and innovation 2: ‘sound science’ and technology appraisal 3: precaution as ‘broadening out’ appraisal 4: participation as ‘opening up’ appraisal 5: synergies : science, precaution and participation The Direction of Innovation: new challenges in the governance of technology

4. progress Innovation as Linear Progress SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY conventional ‘linear’ understandings of technology change still prevail in mainstream technology governance

5. time Polarised Politics of Innovation PAST FUTURE conventional ‘linear’ understandings of technology change still prevail in mainstream technology governance eg: “history is a race to advance technology ” - UK Royal Academy of Engineering ‘ anti-technology protestors ’ are “… members of the 'flat earth society’ , opposed to modern economics, modern technology, modern science, modern life itself .” – UN DDG Treats innovation as homogeneous: no distinctions … no alternatives … no politics … no choice ! Precaution: irrational obstruction of pre-determined direction of progress Participation: ‘politically correct’ delay over self-evident inevitability

6. space of technological possibilities time Technology Change as Market Closure The conventional naïve view of technology change: ‘sound science’, technical optimisation and market competition yield optimal technological configurations

7. space of technological possibilities time Technology Change as Social Choice Infomed understandings of technology change: economics, history, management, political science, social studies: reveal powerful mechanisms: path-dependence, homeostasis, momentum, autonomy, entrapment, ‘lock-in’…

9. Future example: energy pathways No shortage of possible viable pathways to energy sustainability:` tidal barrages? offshore tidal enclosures? tidal stream? onshore windfarms? energy efficiency? small hydroelectricity? … not all possibilities can be fully realised (especially in global markets) offshore wind arrays? integrated micro-wind? high-altitude kites? desert solar wind towers? waste energy conversion? onshore wave power? subsea wave arrays? geothermal energy? biomass energy? landfill gas? solar thermal power? centralised photovoltaics? integrated photovoltaics? nuclear power? carbon capture & storage ?

10. space of technological possibilities time The Dynamics of ‘Lock-in’ – innovation is a vector, not a scalar but which directions will we pursue? nuclear centralised renewables energy services carbon capture distributed renewables etc…

11. space of technological possibilities time The Dynamics of ‘Lock-in’ – innovation is a vector, not a scalar but which directions will we pursue? nuclear centralised renewables energy services carbon capture distributed renewables etc…

12. space of technological possibilities time The Dynamics of ‘Lock-in’ nuclear centralised renewables energy services carbon capture distributed renewables etc… – innovation is a vector, not a scalar but which directions will we pursue?

13. The Missing Politics of Choice “… We have no alternative to nuclear power … … if there were other sources of low carbon energy I would be in favour, but there aren't.” Independent, July 2006 eg: Sir David King former UK Chief Scientist Denies even the language of choice General pro / anti rhetorics over science and technology are as if sceptics in other policy areas were called “anti policy”…

14. The Politics of Expectation 1: assume future electricity infrastructures shift towards distributed, low-voltage, smart-metered electricity systems, subject to intelligent control and flexible supply contracts Directions for technology change are driven by expectations invest in small scale renewables and energy service innovations 2: assume persistence of traditional large centralised steam-cycle power stations, presiding over high-voltage transmission systems, with one-way distribution and conventional tariffs incremental innovation along traditional fossil and nuclear paths Determinist ‘sound science’ / ‘pro innovation’ language is not innocent … but a key aid to moulding political choices

21. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about outcomes Appraisal under Incertitude

22. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about outcomes RISK engineering failure short-term price covariance Appraisal under Incertitude

23. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about outcomes UNCERTAINTY unfamiliar toxins / hazards ‘ human factor’ RISK engineering failure short-term price covariance Appraisal under Incertitude

24. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about outcomes AMBIGUITY interests / priorities / ‘framings’ divergent notions of harm trust, fairness, ethics RISK UNCERTAINTY engineering failure short-term price covariance unfamiliar toxins / hazards ‘ human factor’ Appraisal under Incertitude

25. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about outcomes IGNORANCE unknowns, surprise, novelty new vectors / forms of harm RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY engineering failure short-term price covariance unfamiliar toxins / hazards ‘ human factor’ interests / priorities / ‘framings’ divergent notions of harm trust, fairness, ethics Appraisal under Incertitude

26. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about outcomes RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE decision rules aggregative analysis deliberative process political closure reductive modeling stochastic reasoning rules of thumb insurance ` evidence-basing agenda-setting horizon scanning transdisciplinarity liability law harm definitions indicators / metrics institutional remits Appraisal under Incertitude

27. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about outcomes RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE uncertainty heuristics interval analysis sensitivity testing scenarios / backcasting interactive modeling mapping / Q-methods participatory deliberation monitor, surveil, research institutional learning adaptive management reductive aggregative models offer more humility and rigour under uncertainty, ambiguity & ignorance Appraisal under Incertitude

28. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about outcomes RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE precaution means broader methods, options, uncertainties, perspectives … Appraisal under Incertitude NARROW RISK-BASED ANALYSIS BROAD-BASED PRECAUTIONARY APPRAISAL