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IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
PV Market Development
Gaëtan Masson,
IEA PVPS Task 1 Operating Agent
Director, Becquerel Institute
Leonardo Energy
IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
What is IEA PVPS?
• Implementing Agreement from
International Energy Agency –
Energy Technology Network.
• Established in 1993
• 28 members: 23 countries, EC, 4 associations
• Strategy 2013-2017: “To enhance the international
collaborative efforts which facilitate the role of photovoltaic
solar energy as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable
energy systems”
IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
40.000 MW installed in 2014
IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
177.000 MW end of 2014
IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
A Global PV Market
IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
A changing Top 10
IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
% electricity demand
World: 1%
IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
The Economics of PV
IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
2 Distinct PV Worlds
Distributed PV
Centralized PVProsumers
Producers
Grid injection, PPA,
competition with
utilities generation
business
Self-consumption,
energy effiency, grid
parity, competition
with utilities
distribution business
One
technology
IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
New Business Models ?
FiT still drives 75% of the
market. 90% was driven
by financial incentives.
2014 looks similar. FiT
with tenders grows fast.
Self-consumption policies were
used in 55% of rooftop PV
installations in 2013.
IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Declining PV Prices
IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Declining PV LCOEs
IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
How to remunerate PV?
PV Penetration in the electricity mix
FiT and similar
Self-consumption based schemes
Grid parity threshold (PV LCOE < retail prices)
Market based remuneration?
Tax br.
Competitive bids / system oriented
Private PPAs
IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
In summary…
Competitiveness ? Which Incentives ?
Local industry vs low
prices?
Market Integration ? Cost of financing Quality & Reliability
IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
www.iea-pvps.org
Becquerelinstitute.org
Thank you for your attention

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The Evolution of Photovoltaic Installations - 2015

  • 1. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME PV Market Development Gaëtan Masson, IEA PVPS Task 1 Operating Agent Director, Becquerel Institute Leonardo Energy
  • 2. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME What is IEA PVPS? • Implementing Agreement from International Energy Agency – Energy Technology Network. • Established in 1993 • 28 members: 23 countries, EC, 4 associations • Strategy 2013-2017: “To enhance the international collaborative efforts which facilitate the role of photovoltaic solar energy as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable energy systems”
  • 3. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
  • 4. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME 40.000 MW installed in 2014
  • 5. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME 177.000 MW end of 2014
  • 6. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME A Global PV Market
  • 7. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME A changing Top 10
  • 8. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME % electricity demand World: 1%
  • 9. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME The Economics of PV
  • 10. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME 2 Distinct PV Worlds Distributed PV Centralized PVProsumers Producers Grid injection, PPA, competition with utilities generation business Self-consumption, energy effiency, grid parity, competition with utilities distribution business One technology
  • 11. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME New Business Models ? FiT still drives 75% of the market. 90% was driven by financial incentives. 2014 looks similar. FiT with tenders grows fast. Self-consumption policies were used in 55% of rooftop PV installations in 2013.
  • 12. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Declining PV Prices
  • 13. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Declining PV LCOEs
  • 14. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
  • 15. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME How to remunerate PV? PV Penetration in the electricity mix FiT and similar Self-consumption based schemes Grid parity threshold (PV LCOE < retail prices) Market based remuneration? Tax br. Competitive bids / system oriented Private PPAs
  • 16. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME In summary… Competitiveness ? Which Incentives ? Local industry vs low prices? Market Integration ? Cost of financing Quality & Reliability
  • 17. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME www.iea-pvps.org Becquerelinstitute.org Thank you for your attention