On November 10, 2010 the Bay Area Open Space Council convened a workshop at the Gordon & Betty Moore Foundation to discuss climate change and its impacts on land conservation. Ellie M. Cohen of PRBO Conservation Science presented "Climate Change and Conserving Bay Area Ecosystems." Read more about the event here: http://openspacecouncil.org/blog/by-guest-blogger-kelly-cash-on-the-morning-of-the-day-that-the-san-francisco-giants-would-win-the-world-series-in-the-evenin/ See photos from the event here: https://www.flickr.com/photos/openspacecouncil/sets/72157625226473375/

1. Climate Change and Conserving Bay Area
Ecosystems
Ellie M Cohen and PRBO Staff November 1, 2010

2. PRBO Conservation Science
Today’s Presentation
1. Latest Climate Change Findings and
Projections
2. Ecosystem Adaptation for Rapid Change
3. Bay Area Ecosystems Climate Change
Consortium (BAECCC)
4. Where we go from here

3. PRBO Conservation Science
PRIORITY: Address Rapid Environmental Change
Tuna
Matt Jalbert

4. PRBO Conservation Science

5. PRBO Conservation Science
CO2: Last this High ~15 Million Years Ago When….
Miocene: http://palaeo.gly.bris.ac.uk/palaeofiles/marsupials/Origin%20-%20Australia.htm
Today approx. 390 ppm CO2 in atmosphere; showed dramatic rise in SLR associated with 100 ppm
increase
AradhnaTripati (UCLA) - Tripati et al, Science, Vol 326, no. 5958, Dec. 2009
used ratios of boron to calcium in foraminifera - marine algae
• Sea level
was 75-120 ft
higher
•Temperature
was 5-10 F
warmer
• No
permanent
Arctic ice cap
• Little ice on
Antarctica
&Greenland

6. PRBO Conservation Science
2000-2009 Warmest Decade on Record
2010 ties 1998 as Warmest Year thru September
NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2010july/
NOAA National Climatic Data Center- September 2010
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=global&year=2010&month=9
NASA: “July is What Global
Warming Looks Like”

7. PRBO Conservation Science
Arctic Sea Ice Volume Lowest on Record– Sept 2010
“…the Arctic summer sea ice cover is in a death spiral. It’s
not going to recover,” Mark Serreze, Director, Natl.Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
Anomalies computed relative to the 1979 to 2009 average for
that day. The trend for the 1979- present period is shown in blue.
Shaded areas show one &two standard deviations from trend.

8. PRBO Conservation Science
~40% in Phytoplankton Since 1950 Due to Warming
Global Phytoplankton Decline Boyce et.al., Nature : 466, Pages: 591–596 (29 July 2010)
• foundation
of marine
food web
• produce
half world’s
O2
• sucks up…
CO2
credit: Christopher Krembs, NOAA, US Department of Commerce)
O2

9. PRBO Conservation Science
Rate of Ocean Acidification
Fastest in 65m yrs; Lower pH= mass extinctions
Ridgwell & Schmidt, Nature Geoscience Feb 14 2010
Dias, Hart, et al, Journal of the Geol.Society; Sept. 2010; v. 167
Tipping point pH of 7.8:
• calcified organisms disappear
• jellies & algae take over
pH
CO2

10. PRBO Conservation Science
Extreme, Unpredictable, Deadly Weather Events
US Climate Change Science Program
www.globalchange.gov
Record-breaking flooding Pakistan; heat/fire in Russia ‘mud slides in China NY Times, August 15, 2010,;
Superstorm over midwest-- lowest barometric pressure recorded in continental US, October 26, 2010

11. PRBO Conservation Science
1.2 m
Jan. 2009
Sea Level Rise– up to 6 ft by 2100
-Rate of global SLR already
>2x faster than IPCC 2007
predictions
(www.climateinstitute.org.au)
Vermeer, M., Rahmstorf, S. Global sea level
linked to global temperature. Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences, December
2009
1.9 m

12. PRBO Conservation Science
Extreme Drought Globally & Permanent Dust
Bowls in US West over Decades Ahead
Palmer Drought Severity Index of -4 or lower considered extreme drought; UCAR graphics; not forecasts
Drought under global warming: a review, Aiguo Dai , National Center for Atmospheric Research, 19 Oct
2010 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.81/full

13. PRBO Conservation Science
National Park Service
33% in Fog on West Coast since 1901
“coast redwood and other ecosystems along the
U.S. West Coast may be increasingly drought-
stressed “ – Todd Dawson, UC Berkeley
Johnstone, et al, Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences. February 2010

14. PRBO Conservation Science
www.prbo.org Roth et al. 2009 (in prep)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Springtransitiondate
Year
Earlier Onset of Upwelling
• 20 days earlier since 1970’s
• Common Murres not adapting
• Mismatch in timing

15. PRBO Conservation Science
Bay Area National Parks: 6° F by 2070
• Muir Woods
National
Monument + 5.9°F
- As hot as San Diego
historically has been
• Point Reyes
National Seashore
+ 6.0°F
- As hot as Santa Barbara
has been
Projected Temperature Increases by 2070-2099; Averages of 6 Climate Models With Medium-High Future Emissions
Comparisons to 1961-1990 Temperatures; http://www.rockymountainclimate.org/programs_11.htm
Rocky Mountain Climate Organization and NRDC October 26, 2010
Chimney Rock, PRNS; photo Miguel V

16. PRBO Conservation Science
Acorn Woodpecker: negative response to projected
increase in rainfall variability in Marin County
What does this tell us about
oak woodlands? Need more
information….
www.prbo.org/data

17. PRBO Conservation Science
Oak Titmouse: positive response to projected
increase temperatures in Marin County
Two oak woodland associated
bird species but different
responses to changing
conditions….
www.prbo.org/data

18. PRBO Conservation Science
By 2070: Over 50% of CA will likely have very
different “no-analog” ecological communities
Source: PRBO, Stralberg et al., PLoS One, 2009
•Data from 60 land bird focal species
•Assumes all exist 60 years from now
•Combined with temperature, precipitation and
vegetation variables
•From IPCC moderate climate scenarios
Red= Very
Different
Blue= Less
Different

19. PRBO Conservation Science

20. PRBO Conservation Science
How do we start managing for rapid change
now?
Photo by John Wiens, Tolay Creek/Tubbs Island, San Pablo NWR
Promote:
• ecological processes,
function and services
• multi-species
approach over single
species
• ecological “response”
• climate-smart
strategies in
management plans,
protocols and
regulations

21. PRBO Conservation Science
past future
Ecosystemstate
Plan for Extremes, Wider Range of Variability
e.g. plan for mega-drought, 1000+ yr flood , increased coastal salinity, etc.
Nat Seavy
www.prbo.org
--Prioritize
conservation projects
that could succeed
under multiple
scenarios
--Reduce stressors
and protect refugia
(e.g., non-native
predators, real-time
marine reserves)
--Manage for habitat
and ‘climate space’
heterogeneity

22. PRBO Conservation Science
Cool
Warm
Wet Dry
Restore for genetic diversity to prepare for extremes
Source: www.prbo.org , Seavy et al., Ecol. Rest v27
Consider
planting “new
but nearby”
species

23. PRBO Conservation Science
Employ Adaptive, Flexible Management Strategies
Recommend Actions
Monitor
At Multiple Scales, Identify &
Test Indicators, Provide Early
Warning of Change
Implement
Modify
Evaluate
Williams et al. 2007.
Department of Interior
Adaptive Management
Technical Guide
Elliott, et., al., Adaptive
Conservation
Strategies Guide, 2003
www.prbo.org
Identify/ Reassess Threats
regularly update with
new climate change knowledge

24. PRBO Conservation Science
Goal: Slow Down Impacts of Rapid Change to
Provide Time for Response & Adaptation

25. PRBO Conservation Science
Must Manage for Multiple Benefits Simultaneously
LIFE on EARTH
C
A
R
B
O
N
www.prbo.org Ellie Cohen

26. PRBO Conservation Science
Accelerate ‘Biohydrological’ Conservation
Strategies include:
• Expand restoration &
protection of riparian corridors
& urban creeks
• ID & protect groundwater
storage (aquifers)
• Enhance soil water retention
qualities
• Partner with
adjacent/regional water users
& decision makers
•Require urban permeable
surfaces; run-on instead of
run-off

27. PRBO Conservation Science
Promote Eco-friendly Agricultural Practices
Including:
• Grass fed/finished livestock
• Rotational grazing
• Mixed farming
• Multiple ecosystem services:
• Sequester CO2
• Replenish the soil carbon bank
• Retain soil moisture
• Increase productivity

28. PRBO Conservation Science
Goal: sequester carbon in CA’s rangeland soils
working with land owners and managers
MCP research measured a
rate of over 10 Metric Tons of C/ha
composting & grazing approach
benefits water and biodiversity also
Major potential for Bay Area’s ~800k acres (325k ha) of rangeland
Director: John Wick Science lead: Whendee Silver, U.C. Berkeley Partners: UC Berkeley and Davis,
Stakeholders, Resource Conservation District, UC Extension, Marin Agricultural Land Trust, Marin
www.marincarbonproject.org
Promote nature’s sequestration and reduce
emissions – ex.: Marin Carbon Project

29. PRBO Conservation Science
Prioritize Linkages and
Networks Across
Multiple Scales– ex:
Upland Goals Project

30. PRBO Conservation Science
Characteristics of riparian areas:
1. Naturally resilient
2. Provide linear habitat connectivity
3. Link aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems
4. Create thermal refugia for wildlife
5. Restore underground aquifers
Prioritize Riparian Restoration- more important than
ever in context of rapid climate change
Source: www.PRBO,.org Why climate change makes riparian
restoration more important than ever. 2009. Ecological Restoration
Seavy et al., Ecol. Rest. v27

31. PRBO Conservation Science
Partner Across Existing Boundaries
Gale Ranch – 3 yrs after restorationGale Ranch
• Allows connectivity so species can move in response to change
•Promotes ecosystem function
Connect Public and Private Landowners

32. PRBO Conservation Science
Must Also Link Upland, Estuarine, Coastal and
Ocean Efforts
Anchor Bay Area
adaptation in
region-wide
ecosystem
processes &
function

33. PRBO Conservation Science
ADAPTATION WILL REQUIRE THINKING &
WORKING OUTSIDE TRADITIONAL BOUNDARIES

34. Bringing together scientists, natural
resource managers and planners to:
• Reduce negative impacts of
accelerating climate change on the
region’s wildlife, habitats & ecosystems
from the SF Bay uplands and estuary
out to the Greater Gulf of the
Farallones;
• Secure nature’s benefits to society.
Bay Area Ecosystems Climate
Change Consortium
www.baeccc.org

35. STRATEGIES
• Overcome fragmented approaches by
jointly prioritizing & addressing climate
impacts on region’s ecosystems.
• Collaboratively develop, implement &
evaluate adaptive management protocols
to address change.
• Serve as clearinghouse for Bay Area
ecosystem climate science & adaptation.
Members:
•NOAA Gulf of the Farallones and
Cordell Bank National Marine
Sanctuaries
•US Fish & Wildlife Service SF Bay
Refuge Complex
•NOAA Coastal Services Center
•PRBO Conservation Science
•US Geological Survey
•CA Coastal Conservancy
•CA Dept of Fish and Game
•National Park Service- GGNRA
and PRNS
•Bay Conservation and
Development Commission
•SF Bay Joint Venture
•SF Estuary Partnership
•Upland Goals Project
•Bay Area Open Space Council

36. 10-YEAR OUTCOMES:
1-Science-based ecosystem adaptation approaches
tested, implemented & disseminated.
2- Natural resource management protocols, plans,
policies revised/developed to address climate change.
3- SF Bay Area ocean-estuary-upland ecosystems have
enhanced ability to respond to rapid climate change and
to sustain nature’s benefits to our communities.

37. 2-YEAR OUTCOMES include:
 Develop Research Strategic Plan to ID Gaps, Prioritize Research
and Monitoring for Effective Adaptation
 Develop Early Indicators Climate Change Monitoring Network
 Produce and Disseminate Best Management Practices Manual
for Ecosystem Adaptation
 Establish Bay Area Climate Change Science & Resource Mgmt
Communications & Informatics Network
 Produce and Disseminate Lesson’s Learned Case Study to on
linking science and resource mgmt to accelerate adaptation.
And conduct collaborative Pilot Projects including:

38. Preparing for SLR and Extreme Storms Along the San
Francisco Bay Area’s Outer Coast (funded- NOAA SARP, NPS)
Project Objectives Include:
 Assess vulnerabilities to SLR & increased
storm intensity as well as stakeholder
information needs from Point San Pedro to
Point Reyes.
 Develop web-based tools and interactive
maps
 Conduct workshops to communicate the
findings for application to local adaptation
and response strategies.
Project Leads:

39. Climate Change Technical Update of 1999
Baylands Ecosystem Habitat Goals (funded-
Coastal Conservancy)
Project Objectives include:
 Provide updated habitat restoration and
protection goals for next decade
 ID upland sites that can accommodate
wetland transgression upslope.
 ID management strategies for more
resilient marshes (e.g., improve
sedimentation dynamics) and “living
marshes” to protect shorelines
 ID long-term science and mgmt. gaps to
implement recommendations.
Project Partners include:

40. PRBO Conservation Science
BAECCC in LARGER CONTEXT: CA Landscape
Conservation Cooperative
CA LCC: A management-
science partnership to inform
on-the-ground conservation
actions addressing climate
change and other stressors
within and across
landscapes.
Funding- USFWS, USGS, DOI

41. PRBO Conservation Science
Word of Caution: Best Science &Tools Do Not
Ensure They will be Used
•Face to face interactions– important by rarely available
• information dissemination should include in-person
interactions to ensure effective use
•Peer-reviewed publications and synthetic reviews are important
•Need clearinghouses that make this information more
easily available
•Web-based tools were not perceived as important or widely
available
•Need in-person trainings and follow-up to ensure use of
new knowledge and tools
www.prbo.org Seavy and Howell. 2010. How can we improve delivery of decision support tools for conservation and restoration?
Biodiversity and Conservation 19:1261–1267. Funded in part through a CalFed Science Fellowship
PRBO Survey on Managers, Decision Makers Use of Decision Support Tools:

42. PRBO Conservation Science

43. PRBO Conservation Science
Apply the 10% Rule
T = Test &
E = Experiment
N = Now
of your time to
www.prbo.org
Allocate

44. PRBO Conservation Science
No More “Business as Usual”
Stop greenhouse gas emissions
and
make ecosystem conservation
an equal priority now

45. PRBO Conservation Science
“By working together, we
can provide a network of
vital Bay Area lands that
supports people and
wildlife, helps us adapt to
climate change, and
supports our health and
economy.”

46. PRBO Conservation Science

47. PRBO Conservation Science
In Summary:
1. Climate change impacts are growing
2. Manage for multiple ecosystem benefits
simultaneously–water, carbon, biodiversity
3. Plan for extremes
4. Employ adaptive management
5. Collaborate across traditional boundaries— e.g., engage
scientists with resource managers
6. For findings to be used– conduct trainings, one-on-one
meetings, follow-up
7. Think out-of-the protected area!
www.prbo.org/climatechange

48. PRBO Conservation Science
THANK YOU!
www.prbo.org
707-781-2555

49. PRBO Conservation Science
Acknowledgements
PRBO scientists, support staff, Board, members, and:
Anonymous
S.D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation
Bernice Barbour Foundation
Bureau of Reclamation
Bureau of Land Management
California Coastal Conservancy
California Department of Fish and Game
California Department of Water Resources
California Bay Delta Authority
California Audubon
California Seagrant
Central Valley Joint Venture
Cornell Lab of Ornithology
DMARLOU Foundation
Richard Grand Foundation
Marin Community Foundation
Marin Municipal Water District
Giles Mead Foundation
Moore Family Foundation/Gordon & Betty Moore Foundation
David and Lucile Packard Foundation
National Fish and Wildlife Foundation
National Park Service
National Science Foundation
NOAA Fisheries, Marine Sanctuaries
Natural Resource Conservation Service
Resources Law Group/Resources Legacy Fund Foundation
Riparian Habitat Joint Venture
San Francisco Foundation
San Francisco Bay Joint Venture
The Climate Project
The Nature Conservancy
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
USDA Forest Service