chapter_6_modified_slides_4.ppt

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Chapter 6, Slide 1
The Normal
Distribution
Chapter 6

Objectives
In this chapter, you learn:
 To compute probabilities from the normal distribution
 How to use the normal distribution to solve business
problems
 To use the normal probability plot to determine whether
a set of data is approximately normally distributed

Continuous Probability Distributions
 A continuous variable is a variable that can
assume any value on a continuum (can assume
an uncountable number of values)
 thickness of an item
 time required to complete a task
 temperature of a solution
 height, in inches
 These can potentially take on any value
depending only on the ability to precisely and
accurately measure

 Bell Shaped
 Symmetrical
 Mean, Median and Mode
are Equal
Location is determined by the
mean, μ
Spread is determined by the
standard deviation, σ
The random variable has an
infinite theoretical range:
+  to  
Mean
= Median
= Mode
X
f(X)
μ
σ
The Normal Distribution

The Normal Distribution
Density Function
2
μ)
(X
2
1
e
2π
1
f(X)





 

 

 The formula for the normal probability density function is
Where e = the mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828
π = the mathematical constant approximated by 3.14159
μ = the population mean
σ = the population standard deviation
X = any value of the continuous variable

A
B
C
A and B have the same mean but different standard deviations.
B and C have different means and different standard deviations.
By varying the parameters μ and σ, we
obtain different normal distributions

The Normal Distribution Shape
X
f(X)
μ
σ
Changing μ shifts the
distribution left or right.
Changing σ increases
or decreases the
spread.

The Standardized Normal
 Any normal distribution (with any mean and
standard deviation combination) can be
transformed into the standardized normal
distribution (Z)
 To compute normal probabilities need to
transform X units into Z units
 The standardized normal distribution (Z) has a
mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1

Translation to the Standardized
Normal Distribution
 Translate from X to the standardized normal
(the “Z” distribution) by subtracting the mean
of X and dividing by its standard deviation:
σ
μ
X
Z


The Z distribution always has mean = 0 and
standard deviation = 1

The Standardized Normal
Probability Density Function
 The formula for the standardized normal
probability density function is
Where e = the mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828
π = the mathematical constant approximated by 3.14159
Z = any value of the standardized normal distribution
2
(1/2)Z
e
2π
1
f(Z) 


The Standardized
Normal Distribution
 Also known as the “Z” distribution
 Mean is 0
 Standard Deviation is 1
Z
f(Z)
0
1
Values above the mean have positive Z-values.
Values below the mean have negative Z-values.

Example
 If X is distributed normally with mean of $100
and standard deviation of $50, the Z value
for X = $200 is
 This says that X = $200 is two standard
deviations (2 increments of $50 units) above
the mean of $100.
2.0
$50
100
$
$200
σ
μ
X
Z 





Comparing X and Z units
Note that the shape of the distribution is the same,
only the scale has changed. We can express the
problem in the original units (X in dollars) or in
standardized units (Z)
Z
$100
2.0
0
$200 $X(μ = $100, σ = $50)
(μ = 0, σ = 1)

Probability is measured by the area under
the curve
a b X
f(X) P a X b
( )
≤
≤
P a X b
( )
<
<
=
(Note that the
probability of any
individual value is zero)
Finding Normal Probabilities

Probability as
Area Under the Curve
The total area under the curve is 1.0, and the curve is
symmetric, so half is above the mean, half is below
f(X)
X
μ
0.5
0.5
1.0
)
X
P( 




0.5
)
X
P(μ 



0.5
μ)
X
P( 




The Standardized Normal Table
 The Cumulative Standardized Normal table in
the textbook (Appendix table E.2) gives the
probability less than a desired value of Z (i.e.,
from negative infinity to Z)
Z
0 2.00
0.9772
Example:
P(Z < 2.00) = 0.9772

The Standardized Normal Table
The value within the
table gives the
probability from Z =  
up to the desired Z
value
.9772
2.0
P(Z < 2.00) = 0.9772
The row shows
the value of Z
to the first
decimal point
The column gives the value of
Z to the second decimal point
2.0
.
.
.
(continued)
Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 …
0.0
0.1

General Procedure for Finding
Normal Probabilities
 Draw the normal curve for the problem in
terms of X
 Translate X-values to Z-values
 Use the Standardized Normal Table
To find P(a < X < b) when X is
distributed normally:

 Let X represent the time it takes (in seconds) to
download an image file from the internet.
 Suppose X is normal with a mean of18.0
seconds and a standard deviation of 5.0
seconds. Find P(X < 18.6)
18.6
X
18.0

 Let X represent the time it takes, in seconds to download an image file from
the internet.
 Suppose X is normal with a mean of 18.0 seconds and a standard deviation
of 5.0 seconds. Find P(X < 18.6)
Z
0.12
0
X
18.6
18
μ = 18
σ = 5
μ = 0
σ = 1
(continued)
0.12
5.0
8.0
1
18.6
σ
μ
X
Z 




P(X < 18.6) P(Z < 0.12)

Z
0.12
0.5478
Standardized Normal Probability
Table (Portion)
0.00
= P(Z < 0.12)
P(X < 18.6)
Z .00 .01
0.0 .5000 .5040 .5080
.5398 .5438
0.2 .5793 .5832 .5871
0.3 .6179 .6217 .6255
.02
0.1 .5478
Solution: Finding P(Z < 0.12)

Finding Normal
Upper Tail Probabilities
 Suppose X is normal with mean 18.0
and standard deviation 5.0.
 Now Find P(X > 18.6)
X
18.6
18.0

Finding Normal
Upper Tail Probabilities
 Now Find P(X > 18.6)…
(continued)
Z
0.12
0
Z
0.12
0.5478
0
1.000 1.0 - 0.5478
= 0.4522
P(X > 18.6) = P(Z > 0.12) = 1.0 - P(Z ≤ 0.12)
= 1.0 - 0.5478 = 0.4522

Finding a Normal Probability
Between Two Values
 Suppose X is normal with mean 18.0 and
standard deviation 5.0. Find P(18 < X < 18.6)
P(18 < X < 18.6)
= P(0 < Z < 0.12)
Z
0.12
0
X
18.6
18
0
5
8
1
18
σ
μ
X
Z 




0.12
5
8
1
18.6
σ
μ
X
Z 




Calculate Z-values:

Z
0.12
0.0478
0.00
= P(0 < Z < 0.12)
P(18 < X < 18.6)
= P(Z < 0.12) – P(Z ≤ 0)
= 0.5478 - 0.5000 = 0.0478
0.5000
Z .00 .01
0.0 .5000 .5040 .5080
.5398 .5438
0.2 .5793 .5832 .5871
0.3 .6179 .6217 .6255
.02
0.1 .5478
Table (Portion)
Solution: Finding P(0 < Z < 0.12)

Probabilities in the Lower Tail
 Suppose X is normal with mean 18.0
and standard deviation 5.0.
 Now Find P(17.4 < X < 18)
X
17.4
18.0

Probabilities in the Lower Tail
Now Find P(17.4 < X < 18)…
X
17.4 18.0
P(17.4 < X < 18)
= P(-0.12 < Z < 0)
= P(Z < 0) – P(Z ≤ -0.12)
= 0.5000 - 0.4522 = 0.0478
(continued)
0.0478
0.4522
Z
-0.12 0
The Normal distribution is
symmetric, so this probability
is the same as P(0 < Z < 0.12)

Empirical Rule
μ ± 1σ encloses about
68.26% of X’s
f(X)
X
μ μ+1σ
μ-1σ
What can we say about the distribution of values
around the mean? For any normal distribution:
σ
σ
68.26%

The Empirical Rule
 μ ± 2σ covers about 95.44% of X’s
 μ ± 3σ covers about 99.73% of X’s
x
μ
2σ 2σ
x
μ
3σ 3σ
95.44% 99.73%
(continued)

Given a Normal Probability
Find the X Value
 Steps to find the X value for a known
probability:
1. Find the Z value for the known probability
2. Convert to X units using the formula:
Zσ
μ
X 


Finding the X value for a Known
Probability
Example:
 Let X represent the time it takes (in seconds) to
download an image file from the internet.
 Suppose X is normal with mean 18.0 and standard
deviation 5.0
 Find X such that 20% of download times are less than
X.
X
? 18.0
0.2000
Z
? 0
(continued)

Find the Z value for
20% in the Lower Tail
 20% area in the lower
tail is consistent with a
Z value of -0.84
Z .03
-0.9 .1762 .1736
.2033
-0.7 .2327 .2296
.04
-0.8 .2005
Table (Portion)
.05
.1711
.1977
.2266
…
…
…
…
X
? 18.0
0.2000
Z
-0.84 0
1. Find the Z value for the known probability

Finding the X value
2. Convert to X units using the formula:
8
.
13
0
.
5
)
84
.
0
(
0
.
18
Zσ
μ
X






So 20% of the values from a distribution
with mean 18.0 and standard deviation
5.0 are less than 13.80

Chapter Summary
In this chapter we discussed:
 Computing probabilities from the normal distribution
 Using the normal distribution to solve business
problems
 Using the normal probability plot to determine whether a
set of data is approximately normally distributed

chapter_6_modified_slides_4.ppt

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