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FlexSim Simulation
Competition
Society for Health Systems
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Samuel Schmitt, April Soler, Erkin Otles & Mike Russo
The Simulation Cycle
Analyze and
Compare Output
Data
Collect and
Analyze Input
Data
Problem
Set Scope and
Goals
Understand &
Conceptualize
System
Make ModelVerify & Validate
Experiment &
Analyze
Document &
Present
The Simulation Cycle
Analyze and
Compare Output
Data
Collect and
Analyze Input
Data
Problem
Set Scope and
Goals
Understand &
Conceptualize
System
Make ModelVerify & Validate
Experiment &
Analyze
Document &
Present
Emergency Medicine needs
Industrial Engineers
Hospital ED visits per 1,000 persons
1992-2012
Hospital Inpatient days per 1,000 persons
1992-2012
http://www.aha.org/research/reports/tw/chartbook/ch3.shtml
ED Crowding
ED Crowding
ED Visits
+30,000
ED Crowding
ED Visits
+30,000
ED Facilities
-560
ED Crowding
ED Visits
+30,000
ED Facilities
-560
Delayed Treatment
Patient Elopement
Prolonged Transport
Increased Mortality
Financial Losses
WRMC ED
Susquehanna Health
Current ED
45,000 Patients Last Years
52% of all WRMC admits
Very similar to UW ED
Patients Description
ESI 1
Patient requires immediate life-saving
intervention
ESI 2
Patient is in severe pain, in a high risk
situation, or is confused/disoriented
ESI 3 Patient requires many resources
ESI 4 Patient requires few resources
ESI 5 Patient requires limited resources
Mental
Health
Patient is dealing with psychological
issues and could potentially hurt
oneself or others
WRMC ED
Fast Track Bed, Mental Health Bed, Cardiac Resuscitation Room, X-ray & CT scans
The Simulation Cycle
Analyze and
Compare Output
Data
Collect and
Analyze Input
Data
Problem
Set Scope and
Goals
Understand &
Conceptualize
System
Make ModelVerify & Validate
Experiment &
Analyze
Document &
Present
Goals & Scope
HealthIE Goal:
Best Delivery Methods
Traditional Triage and Bed
Provider in Triage Team (PITT)
Super Fast Track/PITT (SFT)
Optimal Staffing Levels
Key Performance Indicators:
Length of Stay
Average Door to Provider Time
Leave Without Being Seen (LWBS)
Team Structure
Team Background
Process
April UW Health - QSI Lab, HSyE
Intern
Mike UW Health - QSI Lab
Team Background
Simulation
Erkin UW Health - QSI Lab, Epic,
ED Research
Sam Process improvement projects,
ED technical report
Timeline
Team Background
Process
April UW Health - QSI Lab, HSyE
Intern
Mike UW Health - QSI Lab
Team Background
Simulation
Erkin UW Health - QSI Lab, Epic,
ED Research
Sam Process improvement projects,
ED technical report
The Simulation Cycle
Analyze and
Compare Output
Data
Collect and
Analyze Input
Data
Problem
Set Scope and
Goals
Understand &
Conceptualize
System
Make ModelVerify & Validate
Experiment &
Analyze
Document &
Present
Understanding the System
• Case Study
• Literature Reviews
• Observations
• Collaborations
• We even checked a
member in to the ED!
Process Mapping
Traditional
Traditional
Traditional
Traditional
Traditional
PITT SFT
Key Differences
PITT
PA evaluation prior
to rooming
ESI 3
ESI 4
ESI 5
Mental Health
SFT
PITT evaluation to
FT Bed
ESI 4
SFT
Treated in triage
then discharged
ESI 5
*Assume Traditional pathway unless specified*
The Simulation Cycle
Analyze and
Compare Output
Data
Collect and
Analyze Input
Data
Problem
Set Scope and
Goals
Understand &
Conceptualize
System
Make ModelVerify & Validate
Experiment &
Analyze
Document &
Present
–George Box
“All models are wrong, but some are useful”
Assumptions
Ambulance Arrivals
• Physicians are “preempted” from their current
ED task to care for ambulance arrivals until they
are “stabilized”
• Both physician and ED RN are needed to
transport ESI 1 patients
• Any arrivals via ambulance receive higher priority
than walk-ins
• There are a subset of ED nurses and ED
physicians that handle ambulance arrivals
• Patients who arrive via ambulance are considered
“stable” and have same priority as walk-ins after
first provider contact
• Physician caring for patient needs to collect same
information that an RN would when rooming a
patient

Charting
• There are computers are in every room for
bedside order entry
• Nurses watch for orders and respond
immediately
• Time required to review and share results is
always the same
• Provider reviews results in room and then shares
them with the patient
• CR Room
• ESI 2 and 3 do not go to CR Room
• A patient that needs the CR room will use the CR
room for their entire visit
Delivery Model 2 - PITT
• Nothing changes in the PITT process for ESI 1
and 2. Additional testing for other ESI levels is
only because the triage evaluation is less accurate
than traditional evaluation
• Provider evaluation in triage takes the same time
Escorting
• While it is not shown in the model, all transportation groups use
wheelchairs to escort patients and there is no delay in wheelchair retrieval

Equipment
• There are a sufficient number of EKG machines to ensure they are not a
bottleneck
• ESI 1, 2, and 3 have IVs and equipment in room to do blood draws and
stuff there
• Surg Tx doesn’t require equipment because the patient only needs
stitches
• Expiration
• Only ESI 1 patients can die, and they do so at the end of the process
• Patients who die are taken to a morgue exit and aren’t counted as
inpatients or outpatients

Lab Analysis
• All lab processing can occur in parallel because processing is done by
machines and there are enough machines so that there is never a wait for
lab analysis to begin
• Only the longest lab processing time is modeled. If a patient needs both
ABC and Trop, only Trop is modeled because ABC would be completed
during the same timeframe
• There is only one lab technician and he never becomes the bottleneck
• If neither Trop or ABC labs are needed, the “Other” processing time is
used

Locations
• Nurses return to nurse stations when they are performing work unrelated
to patient care
• Physicians stay in resident or nourishment areas when they are not caring
for a patient
• Imaging
• There are different technicians for the X-ray and CT machines
• CT scans are ordered without contrast
• There is no wait time for radiologist to read imaging studies
• Metrics
• Assume “discharge” means discharged from the ED, which could be a
death, admit, or discharge
• When patient sees Triage Provider in the PITT and SuperFT delivery
models, it is considered “Door to Provider” time
• Mental Health
• The one-hour observation period for mental health patients starts after
labs are drawn and X-rays are taken, but before results come back.
• The ED physician waits until the end of the one-hour observation
period to review and share results with the mental health patient
Imaging
• There are different technicians for the X-ray and CT machines
Metrics
• Assume “discharge” means discharged from the ED, which could be a
death, admit, or discharge
• When patient sees Triage Provider in the PITT and SuperFT delivery
models, it is considered “Door to Provider” time

Mental Health
• The one-hour observation period for mental health patients starts after
labs are drawn and X-rays are taken, but before results come back.
• The ED physician waits until the end of the one-hour observation
period to review and share results with the mental health patient

Medical Decision Making
• There is independence between testing processes and death
• The same percentage of patients are admitted regardless of what tests
are performed
• Trop, ABC, and Other testing procedures are independent
• Lab samples are the first things that are done because a nurse can do
them right away
• Unspecified testing occurs if no other testing occurs
• If a patient doesn’t receive any testing, they can still receive MedTx or
SurgTx

Process Flow
• MedTx occurs at the end of the process and doesn’t require equipment
to be brought to the room
• Surg Tx occurs at the end of the process in the patient’s room
• If a patient needs more than one lab, both are drawn at the same time
• FT patients are taken to Room 2 to get labs drawn and then are taken
back to their room before being escorted to X-ray or CT
• Lab draws occur in the patient’s room for patients in ED beds, Mental
Health Pods, or CR rooms
• ESI 5 patients are only escorted to FT beds
• Patients move to the triage waiting room without being escorted
• “Unspecified testing” is instant
• Inpatient beds are always available

Staffing
• Providers are designated to either ED or FT
• Prioritization of staffing is done by assigning the jobs to the roles that
make the most sense. Cost is used as a secondary consideration
• If an employee can alternate for a process, they should be able to
alternate for all other processes
• The RN Supervisor is not assigned clinical duties
• Registration is handled by the registration clerk
• Lab technician only does lab analysis
Model Expansion
• Timelapse video
Traditional Triage Model
• Traditional Triage Model
video 

(Showing simulation
running)
Model Features: Consistency
Model Features: Realism
Model Features: Collaboration
Brian W. Patterson, MD
UW Hospitals and Clinics
Emergency Department
Future Improvements
1. Verify information accuracy by
observing WRMC's ED operations
2. Make inpatient transfers more realistic

3. Include treatments based on changes
in patient's state
The Simulation Cycle
Analyze and
Compare Output
Data
Collect and
Analyze Input
Data
Problem
Set Scope and
Goals
Understand &
Conceptualize
System
Make ModelVerify & Validate
Experiment &
Analyze
Document &
Present
Input Data
Lots of data: Validation, Fill in gaps, Conflicts
Input&
Data&
WRMC&
Case&
Study&
UW&
EMODB&
Experts&&
Time ESI 1 ESI 2 ESI 3 ESI 4 ESI 5
00 - 02 0.3 12.2 53.3 31.1 3.1
02 - 04 0.6 15.3 55.3 26.1 2.7
04 - 06 0.2 13.8 58.7 25.6 1.7
06 - 08 0.4 9.6 55.1 30.9 4.0
08 - 10 0.3 15.8 45.2 30.9 7.8
10 - 12 0.6 17.7 45.1 27.6 8.9
12 - 14 0.3 17.6 46.3 27.3 8.6
14 - 16 0.4 17.7 44.7 28.6 8.5
16 - 18 0.4 16.7 46.2 28.6 8.2
18 - 20 0.1 14.6 44.4 34.6 6.3
20 - 22 0.2 12.2 49.2 33.2 4.6
22 - 00 0.1 11.6 47.2 37.3 3.8
Mode ESI 1 ESI 2 ESI 3 ESI 4 ESI 5 MH
EMS 100 32 32 0 0 0
Walk-in 0 68 68 100 100 100
Time Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
00 - 01 3.9(2.6) 2.8(1.5) 2.7(1.9) 4.1(1.5) 1.9(0.5) 2.4(1.7) 3.7(1.7)
01 - 02 3.9(0.9) 2.6(1.7) 2.4(1.3) 3.0(1.7) 3.5(1.3) 2.2(1.8) 3.7(1.9)
02 - 03 1.5(1.5) 2.4(0.8) 1.6(1.7) 0.3(0.5) 1.9(0.5) 3.0(1.7) 3.0(1.3)
03 - 04 3.7(0.9) 1.7(0.9) 1.9(1.7) 1.4(1.0) 2.4(1.3) 0.5(0.6) 1.9(1.9)
04 - 05 2.4(1.3) 1.3(1.1) 0.8(1.0) 1.4(1.0) 1.4(1.3) 1.6(1.0) 1.5(1.1)
05 - 06 1.9(1.3) 2.6(1.7) 1.6(1.3) 2.2(1.4) 0.5(1.0) 1.4(0.5) 2.4(1.8)
06 - 07 1.7(1.7) 2.6(1.7) 3.0(1.7) 1.6(1.3) 3.0(1.5) 1.1(0.8) 1.7(1.1)
07 - 08 1.7(1.5) 3.7(1.5) 4.1(3.6) 3.2(1.8) 5.7(2.5) 3.8(2.4) 3.9(2.1)
08 - 09 4.5(1.9) 5.0(2.1) 5.9(1.3) 6.8(2.1) 6.8(1.5) 6.2(2.6) 4.8(2.8)
09 - 10 6.7(2.3) 10.6(1.
9)
6.8(1.0) 7.8(2.9) 10.0(1.
5)
5.1(1.7) 7.1(1.8)
10 - 11 8.9(2.9) 8.2(2.7) 7.6(0.6) 7.8(3.3) 8.1(2.1) 7.0(1.9) 8.0(0.9)
11 - 12 7.3(2.4) 7.6(2.3) 8.1(2.6) 9.2(2.4) 9.2(0.6) 8.9(3.0) 8.2(1.8)
12 - 13 8.6(2.5) 11.2(1.
9)
9.5(1.7) 7.0(0.6) 7.0(1.0) 11.3(1.
3)
8.0(4.4)
13 - 14 9.7(4.8) 13.0(1.
6)
6.2(2.4) 7.3(1.0) 5.1(2.9) 11.1(3.
0)
8.2(3.0)
14 - 15 9.1(1.9) 7.8(2.9) 7.6(1.4) 7.6(1.4) 9.7(0.8) 8.9(2.9) 10.8(2.
2)
15 - 16 8.2(1.7) 9.5(3.1) 7.3(2.9) 10.0(3.
3)
8.6(0.8) 6.2(3.3) 6.5(1.9)
16 - 17 7.1(2.3) 9.9(1.6) 9.7(2.2) 6.2(1.3) 5.9(1.3) 5.7(1.0) 4.1(1.8)
17 - 18 6.7(3.1) 9.5(3.1) 10.3(3.
0)
10.8(3.
6)
5.9(4.2) 8.1(4.7) 7.1(3.5)
18 - 19 5.6(2.6) 7.3(2.6) 7.8(5.4) 7.6(2.2) 9.5(3.2) 11.6(3.
5)
6.9(1.9)
19 - 20 8.0(1.3) 6.9(1.5) 5.4(1.4) 6.5(2.4) 7.0(3.7) 6.2(1.3) 8.0(2.5)
20 - 21 8.0(3.8) 7.8(2.4) 5.7(1.3) 5.1(1.0) 7.6(3.4) 8.9(2.2) 6.9(1.5)
21 - 22 5.4(2.3) 5.4(2.9) 5.7(2.5) 4.6(3.7) 3.5(1.3) 6.8(0.5) 3.2(2.8)
22 - 23 5.2(2.3) 6.0(2.9) 3.8(1.7) 6.2(0.5) 5.7(2.2) 7.6(1.8) 6.9(1.8)
23 - 00 3.9(1.5) 2.4(1.3) 4.6(1.0) 2.4(2.1) 4.1(2.1) 4.6(1.0) 3.0(1.6)
Technical Note: Arrival Rates
🚑 🚶
Arrival'
Rate'
Analyzer'
Hourly'
Arrival'
Rates'
Percent'
Arrivals'by'
ESI'
Arrival'
Mode'by'
ESI'
Average Arrival Rate
0
2.25
4.5
6.75
9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
WRMC UW
The Simulation Cycle
Analyze and
Compare Output
Data
Collect and
Analyze Input
Data
Problem
Set Scope and
Goals
Understand &
Conceptualize
System
Make ModelVerify & Validate
Experiment &
Analyze
Document &
Present
Verification & Validation
Verification
Ensure model matches plan
Continuous process
Ensure simulation matches maps
Validation
Ensure model matches reality
Tough to do for case study
Had to find realistic baseline
0
125
250
375
500
All ESI 1 ESI 2 ESI 3 ESI 4 ESI 5 MH
Baseline Given
The Simulation Cycle
Analyze and
Compare Output
Data
Collect and
Analyze Input
Data
Problem
Set Scope and
Goals
Understand &
Conceptualize
System
Make ModelVerify & Validate
Experiment &
Analyze
Document &
Present
Clinic Manager Dashboard
Report'
Exp'3'
Exp'2'
Exp'1'
Technical Note: Patient
History Analyzer
Analyze multiple experimental
results efficiently
Designate patient history files
Write query
Runs same query over all files
Outputs report
The Simulation Cycle
Analyze and
Compare Output
Data
Collect and
Analyze Input
Data
Problem
Set Scope and
Goals
Understand &
Conceptualize
System
Make ModelVerify & Validate
Experiment &
Analyze
Document &
Present
System Optimization
Mathematical Programming Approach
Objective:
Minimize LoS
Constraints:
Staffing Requirements
Variables:
Delivery Method
Staffing Levels
Finding Baseline
Objective: find staffing level for trad
that closely matches LoS of WRMC
Designed small factorial experiment
Used R to find staffing level that
matched best
0
51.25
102.5
153.75
205
All
205202
Baseline Given
tRN tPA ftRN ftPA edRN edMD PCT
Trad Base 1 0 1 1 3 3 8
Initial Experimentation Goal
Determine the best delivery method and staffing model for
each hour of every day.
Feasibility?!?
Many different runs
Group by similar times
Unrealistic - times unlikely to be same
Modeling breaks down
Sequential Experiment
Find best delivery method
Use baseline for each delivery method
Pick whichever has smallest LoS
Find best staffing
Pseudo factorial experiment
First optimize front of house (SFT)
Then optimize back of house (E)
Pick based on LoS
Best Delivery Method: LoS
3
Average Length of Stay (Minutes)
200 250 300 350
271
309
244
SFT
PITT
TRAD
Best Staffing: Pseudo Factorial
Design
tRN tPA ftRN
sft_1 1 2 1
sft_2 1 2 2
sft_3 1 3 2
sft_4 1 3 3
sft_5 1 4 3
sft_6 2 2 1
sft_7 2 3 1
sft_8 2 2 2
sft_9 2 3 2
sft_10 2 4 2
sft_11 2 3 3
sft_12 2 4 3
sft_13 2 5 3
tRN tPA edRN edMD
e_1 opt tRN opt tPA 4 4
e_2 opt tRN opt tPA 7 4
e_3 opt tRN opt tPA 7 7
e_4 opt tRN opt tPA 11 4
e_5 opt tRN opt tPA 11 7
e_6 opt tRN opt tPA 11 11
e_7 opt tRN opt tPA 14 7
e_8 opt tRN opt tPA 14 11
e_9 opt tRN opt tPA 14 14
Best Staffing: LoS
SFTExperiment
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
LoS (minutes)
100 130 160 190 220
Best Staffing: LoS
SFTExperiment
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
LoS (minutes)
100 130 160 190 220
EExperiment
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
LoS (minutes)
100 130 160 190 220
Best Staffing: LoS
Frequency
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
LoS
0 125 250 375 500
e_2 e_5 e_9
Delivery Method & Staffing
Delivery Method: Super Fast Track
Staffing: sft_6 & e_2
Choice should be thoroughly
evaluated before implemented
tRN tPA ftRN ftPA edRN edMD PCT
Choice 2 2 1 1 7 4 8
Mean SD
LoS 146 5
TtP 40 3
Prod (MD) 1.3 0.7
Prod (RN/PA) 1.7 0.9
The Simulation Cycle
Analyze and
Compare Output
Data
Collect and
Analyze Input
Data
Problem
Set Scope and
Goals
Understand &
Conceptualize
System
Make ModelVerify & Validate
Experiment &
Analyze
Document &
Present
Future Work
Project
Additional Work To Strengthen Recommendation
Economic analysis
Work system analysis
Increasing Model Realism
Treatment processes
Modeling based on pathologies
Using Simulation In General
Many opportunities
Big upfront cost, big payoff down the line
Modeling is amazing
Thank You!
Society for Health Systems
FlexSim
Patti Brennan
Dr. Brian Patterson
Laura McLay
UW ISyE Department
UW EM Department
Questions?
?
References
1. Hoot, Nathan R., et al. "Measuring and forecasting emergency department crowding in real time." Annals of emergency medicine
49.6 (2007): 747-755

2. Brenner, Stuart, et al. "Modeling and analysis of the emergency department at University of Kentucky Chandler Hospital using
simulations." Journal of Emergency Nursing 36.4 (2010): 303-310.

3. Ajami, Sima, et al. "Waiting time in emergency department by simulation."ITCH. 2011. 

4. Garcia, Tamyra Carroll, Amy B. Bernstein, and Mary Ann Bush. Emergency department visitors and visits: who used the
emergency room in 2007?. US Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National
Center for Health Statistics, 2010.

5. Gilboy, Nicki, et al. "Emergency Severity Index (ESI): A Triage Tool for Emergency Department Care, Version 4. Implementation
Handbook 2012 Edition. AHRQ Publication No. 12-0014." Rockville, MD (2011).

6. King, Diane L., David I. Ben-Tovim, and Jane Bassham. "Redesigning emergency department patient flows: application of Lean
Thinking to health care." Emergency Medicine Australasia 18.4 (2006): 391-397.

7. Kelton, W. David, Randall P. Sadowski, and Deborah A. Sadowski. Simulation with ARENA. Vol. 3. New York: McGraw-Hill,
2002.

8. Law, Averill M., W. David Kelton, and W. David Kelton. Simulation modeling and analysis. Vol. 2. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1991.

9. Medeiros, Deborah J., Eric Swenson, and Christopher DeFlitch. "Improving patient flow in a hospital emergency department."
Proceedings of the 40th Conference on Winter Simulation. Winter Simulation Conference, 2008.
Appendix
Arrival Rate Distribution
Hourly Arrival Rate Distributions
Time Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
00 - 01 3.9(2.6) 2.8(1.5) 2.7(1.9) 4.1(1.5) 1.9(0.5) 2.4(1.7) 3.7(1.7)
01 - 02 3.9(0.9) 2.6(1.7) 2.4(1.3) 3.0(1.7) 3.5(1.3) 2.2(1.8) 3.7(1.9)
02 - 03 1.5(1.5) 2.4(0.8) 1.6(1.7) 0.3(0.5) 1.9(0.5) 3.0(1.7) 3.0(1.3)
03 - 04 3.7(0.9) 1.7(0.9) 1.9(1.7) 1.4(1.0) 2.4(1.3) 0.5(0.6) 1.9(1.9)
04 - 05 2.4(1.3) 1.3(1.1) 0.8(1.0) 1.4(1.0) 1.4(1.3) 1.6(1.0) 1.5(1.1)
05 - 06 1.9(1.3) 2.6(1.7) 1.6(1.3) 2.2(1.4) 0.5(1.0) 1.4(0.5) 2.4(1.8)
06 - 07 1.7(1.7) 2.6(1.7) 3.0(1.7) 1.6(1.3) 3.0(1.5) 1.1(0.8) 1.7(1.1)
07 - 08 1.7(1.5) 3.7(1.5) 4.1(3.6) 3.2(1.8) 5.7(2.5) 3.8(2.4) 3.9(2.1)
08 - 09 4.5(1.9) 5.0(2.1) 5.9(1.3) 6.8(2.1) 6.8(1.5) 6.2(2.6) 4.8(2.8)
09 - 10 6.7(2.3) 10.6(1.9) 6.8(1.0) 7.8(2.9) 10.0(1.5) 5.1(1.7) 7.1(1.8)
10 - 11 8.9(2.9) 8.2(2.7) 7.6(0.6) 7.8(3.3) 8.1(2.1) 7.0(1.9) 8.0(0.9)
11 - 12 7.3(2.4) 7.6(2.3) 8.1(2.6) 9.2(2.4) 9.2(0.6) 8.9(3.0) 8.2(1.8)
12 - 13 8.6(2.5) 11.2(1.9) 9.5(1.7) 7.0(0.6) 7.0(1.0) 11.3(1.3) 8.0(4.4)
13 - 14 9.7(4.8) 13.0(1.6) 6.2(2.4) 7.3(1.0) 5.1(2.9) 11.1(3.0) 8.2(3.0)
14 - 15 9.1(1.9) 7.8(2.9) 7.6(1.4) 7.6(1.4) 9.7(0.8) 8.9(2.9) 10.8(2.2)
15 - 16 8.2(1.7) 9.5(3.1) 7.3(2.9) 10.0(3.3) 8.6(0.8) 6.2(3.3) 6.5(1.9)
16 - 17 7.1(2.3) 9.9(1.6) 9.7(2.2) 6.2(1.3) 5.9(1.3) 5.7(1.0) 4.1(1.8)
17 - 18 6.7(3.1) 9.5(3.1) 10.3(3.0) 10.8(3.6) 5.9(4.2) 8.1(4.7) 7.1(3.5)
18 - 19 5.6(2.6) 7.3(2.6) 7.8(5.4) 7.6(2.2) 9.5(3.2) 11.6(3.5) 6.9(1.9)
19 - 20 8.0(1.3) 6.9(1.5) 5.4(1.4) 6.5(2.4) 7.0(3.7) 6.2(1.3) 8.0(2.5)
20 - 21 8.0(3.8) 7.8(2.4) 5.7(1.3) 5.1(1.0) 7.6(3.4) 8.9(2.2) 6.9(1.5)
21 - 22 5.4(2.3) 5.4(2.9) 5.7(2.5) 4.6(3.7) 3.5(1.3) 6.8(0.5) 3.2(2.8)
22 - 23 5.2(2.3) 6.0(2.9) 3.8(1.7) 6.2(0.5) 5.7(2.2) 7.6(1.8) 6.9(1.8)
23 - 00 3.9(1.5) 2.4(1.3) 4.6(1.0) 2.4(2.1) 4.1(2.1) 4.6(1.0) 3.0(1.6)
Arrival Rate by ESI Class
Percent Arrivals by ESI Classification
Time ESI 1 ESI 2 ESI 3 ESI 4 ESI 5
00 - 02 0.3 12.2 53.3 31.1 3.1
02 - 04 0.6 15.3 55.3 26.1 2.7
04 - 06 0.2 13.8 58.7 25.6 1.7
06 - 08 0.4 9.6 55.1 30.9 4.0
08 - 10 0.3 15.8 45.2 30.9 7.8
10 - 12 0.6 17.7 45.1 27.6 8.9
12 - 14 0.3 17.6 46.3 27.3 8.6
14 - 16 0.4 17.7 44.7 28.6 8.5
16 - 18 0.4 16.7 46.2 28.6 8.2
18 - 20 0.1 14.6 44.4 34.6 6.3
20 - 22 0.2 12.2 49.2 33.2 4.6
22 - 00 0.1 11.6 47.2 37.3 3.8
Arrival Mode
Arrival Mode by ESI
Mode ESI 1 ESI 2 ESI 3 ESI 4 ESI 5 MH
EMS 100 32 32 0 0 0
Walk-in 0 68 68 100 100 100
Percent of Arrivals by ESI
ESI 1 ESI 2 ESI 3 ESI 4 ESI 5 MH
% of
Arr
0.3 15.3 44 26.8 6.7 6.9
Testing
Testing ESI 1 ESI 2 ESI 3 ESI 4 ESI 5 MH
Lab 10 22 31 19 17 99
Xray 6 2 12 27 0 0
L/X 79 67 33 2 0 1
CT 22 22 17 2 0 0
None 0 7 18 52 83 0
CMD: LoS & Milestones
CMD: Utilization
CMD: Census
CMD: Process Improvement
Experimental Runs
• 1 week warm-up time
• Run for a week
Cfbffd44 c79e-4c8c-bc2e-503a698cfad5-150304115917-conversion-gate01

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  • 1. FlexSim Simulation Competition Society for Health Systems University of Wisconsin - Madison Samuel Schmitt, April Soler, Erkin Otles & Mike Russo
  • 2. The Simulation Cycle Analyze and Compare Output Data Collect and Analyze Input Data Problem Set Scope and Goals Understand & Conceptualize System Make ModelVerify & Validate Experiment & Analyze Document & Present
  • 3. The Simulation Cycle Analyze and Compare Output Data Collect and Analyze Input Data Problem Set Scope and Goals Understand & Conceptualize System Make ModelVerify & Validate Experiment & Analyze Document & Present
  • 4. Emergency Medicine needs Industrial Engineers Hospital ED visits per 1,000 persons 1992-2012 Hospital Inpatient days per 1,000 persons 1992-2012 http://www.aha.org/research/reports/tw/chartbook/ch3.shtml
  • 8. ED Crowding ED Visits +30,000 ED Facilities -560 Delayed Treatment Patient Elopement Prolonged Transport Increased Mortality Financial Losses
  • 9. WRMC ED Susquehanna Health Current ED 45,000 Patients Last Years 52% of all WRMC admits Very similar to UW ED Patients Description ESI 1 Patient requires immediate life-saving intervention ESI 2 Patient is in severe pain, in a high risk situation, or is confused/disoriented ESI 3 Patient requires many resources ESI 4 Patient requires few resources ESI 5 Patient requires limited resources Mental Health Patient is dealing with psychological issues and could potentially hurt oneself or others
  • 10. WRMC ED Fast Track Bed, Mental Health Bed, Cardiac Resuscitation Room, X-ray & CT scans
  • 11. The Simulation Cycle Analyze and Compare Output Data Collect and Analyze Input Data Problem Set Scope and Goals Understand & Conceptualize System Make ModelVerify & Validate Experiment & Analyze Document & Present
  • 12. Goals & Scope HealthIE Goal: Best Delivery Methods Traditional Triage and Bed Provider in Triage Team (PITT) Super Fast Track/PITT (SFT) Optimal Staffing Levels Key Performance Indicators: Length of Stay Average Door to Provider Time Leave Without Being Seen (LWBS)
  • 13. Team Structure Team Background Process April UW Health - QSI Lab, HSyE Intern Mike UW Health - QSI Lab Team Background Simulation Erkin UW Health - QSI Lab, Epic, ED Research Sam Process improvement projects, ED technical report
  • 14. Timeline Team Background Process April UW Health - QSI Lab, HSyE Intern Mike UW Health - QSI Lab Team Background Simulation Erkin UW Health - QSI Lab, Epic, ED Research Sam Process improvement projects, ED technical report
  • 15. The Simulation Cycle Analyze and Compare Output Data Collect and Analyze Input Data Problem Set Scope and Goals Understand & Conceptualize System Make ModelVerify & Validate Experiment & Analyze Document & Present
  • 16. Understanding the System • Case Study • Literature Reviews • Observations • Collaborations • We even checked a member in to the ED!
  • 24. Key Differences PITT PA evaluation prior to rooming ESI 3 ESI 4 ESI 5 Mental Health SFT PITT evaluation to FT Bed ESI 4 SFT Treated in triage then discharged ESI 5 *Assume Traditional pathway unless specified*
  • 25. The Simulation Cycle Analyze and Compare Output Data Collect and Analyze Input Data Problem Set Scope and Goals Understand & Conceptualize System Make ModelVerify & Validate Experiment & Analyze Document & Present
  • 26. –George Box “All models are wrong, but some are useful”
  • 27. Assumptions Ambulance Arrivals • Physicians are “preempted” from their current ED task to care for ambulance arrivals until they are “stabilized” • Both physician and ED RN are needed to transport ESI 1 patients • Any arrivals via ambulance receive higher priority than walk-ins • There are a subset of ED nurses and ED physicians that handle ambulance arrivals • Patients who arrive via ambulance are considered “stable” and have same priority as walk-ins after first provider contact • Physician caring for patient needs to collect same information that an RN would when rooming a patient
 Charting • There are computers are in every room for bedside order entry • Nurses watch for orders and respond immediately • Time required to review and share results is always the same • Provider reviews results in room and then shares them with the patient • CR Room • ESI 2 and 3 do not go to CR Room • A patient that needs the CR room will use the CR room for their entire visit Delivery Model 2 - PITT • Nothing changes in the PITT process for ESI 1 and 2. Additional testing for other ESI levels is only because the triage evaluation is less accurate than traditional evaluation • Provider evaluation in triage takes the same time Escorting • While it is not shown in the model, all transportation groups use wheelchairs to escort patients and there is no delay in wheelchair retrieval
 Equipment • There are a sufficient number of EKG machines to ensure they are not a bottleneck • ESI 1, 2, and 3 have IVs and equipment in room to do blood draws and stuff there • Surg Tx doesn’t require equipment because the patient only needs stitches • Expiration • Only ESI 1 patients can die, and they do so at the end of the process • Patients who die are taken to a morgue exit and aren’t counted as inpatients or outpatients
 Lab Analysis • All lab processing can occur in parallel because processing is done by machines and there are enough machines so that there is never a wait for lab analysis to begin • Only the longest lab processing time is modeled. If a patient needs both ABC and Trop, only Trop is modeled because ABC would be completed during the same timeframe • There is only one lab technician and he never becomes the bottleneck • If neither Trop or ABC labs are needed, the “Other” processing time is used
 Locations • Nurses return to nurse stations when they are performing work unrelated to patient care • Physicians stay in resident or nourishment areas when they are not caring for a patient • Imaging • There are different technicians for the X-ray and CT machines • CT scans are ordered without contrast • There is no wait time for radiologist to read imaging studies • Metrics • Assume “discharge” means discharged from the ED, which could be a death, admit, or discharge • When patient sees Triage Provider in the PITT and SuperFT delivery models, it is considered “Door to Provider” time • Mental Health • The one-hour observation period for mental health patients starts after labs are drawn and X-rays are taken, but before results come back. • The ED physician waits until the end of the one-hour observation period to review and share results with the mental health patient Imaging • There are different technicians for the X-ray and CT machines Metrics • Assume “discharge” means discharged from the ED, which could be a death, admit, or discharge • When patient sees Triage Provider in the PITT and SuperFT delivery models, it is considered “Door to Provider” time
 Mental Health • The one-hour observation period for mental health patients starts after labs are drawn and X-rays are taken, but before results come back. • The ED physician waits until the end of the one-hour observation period to review and share results with the mental health patient
 Medical Decision Making • There is independence between testing processes and death • The same percentage of patients are admitted regardless of what tests are performed • Trop, ABC, and Other testing procedures are independent • Lab samples are the first things that are done because a nurse can do them right away • Unspecified testing occurs if no other testing occurs • If a patient doesn’t receive any testing, they can still receive MedTx or SurgTx
 Process Flow • MedTx occurs at the end of the process and doesn’t require equipment to be brought to the room • Surg Tx occurs at the end of the process in the patient’s room • If a patient needs more than one lab, both are drawn at the same time • FT patients are taken to Room 2 to get labs drawn and then are taken back to their room before being escorted to X-ray or CT • Lab draws occur in the patient’s room for patients in ED beds, Mental Health Pods, or CR rooms • ESI 5 patients are only escorted to FT beds • Patients move to the triage waiting room without being escorted • “Unspecified testing” is instant • Inpatient beds are always available
 Staffing • Providers are designated to either ED or FT • Prioritization of staffing is done by assigning the jobs to the roles that make the most sense. Cost is used as a secondary consideration • If an employee can alternate for a process, they should be able to alternate for all other processes • The RN Supervisor is not assigned clinical duties • Registration is handled by the registration clerk • Lab technician only does lab analysis
  • 29. Traditional Triage Model • Traditional Triage Model video 
 (Showing simulation running)
  • 32. Model Features: Collaboration Brian W. Patterson, MD UW Hospitals and Clinics Emergency Department
  • 33. Future Improvements 1. Verify information accuracy by observing WRMC's ED operations 2. Make inpatient transfers more realistic
 3. Include treatments based on changes in patient's state
  • 34. The Simulation Cycle Analyze and Compare Output Data Collect and Analyze Input Data Problem Set Scope and Goals Understand & Conceptualize System Make ModelVerify & Validate Experiment & Analyze Document & Present
  • 35. Input Data Lots of data: Validation, Fill in gaps, Conflicts Input& Data& WRMC& Case& Study& UW& EMODB& Experts&&
  • 36. Time ESI 1 ESI 2 ESI 3 ESI 4 ESI 5 00 - 02 0.3 12.2 53.3 31.1 3.1 02 - 04 0.6 15.3 55.3 26.1 2.7 04 - 06 0.2 13.8 58.7 25.6 1.7 06 - 08 0.4 9.6 55.1 30.9 4.0 08 - 10 0.3 15.8 45.2 30.9 7.8 10 - 12 0.6 17.7 45.1 27.6 8.9 12 - 14 0.3 17.6 46.3 27.3 8.6 14 - 16 0.4 17.7 44.7 28.6 8.5 16 - 18 0.4 16.7 46.2 28.6 8.2 18 - 20 0.1 14.6 44.4 34.6 6.3 20 - 22 0.2 12.2 49.2 33.2 4.6 22 - 00 0.1 11.6 47.2 37.3 3.8 Mode ESI 1 ESI 2 ESI 3 ESI 4 ESI 5 MH EMS 100 32 32 0 0 0 Walk-in 0 68 68 100 100 100 Time Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 00 - 01 3.9(2.6) 2.8(1.5) 2.7(1.9) 4.1(1.5) 1.9(0.5) 2.4(1.7) 3.7(1.7) 01 - 02 3.9(0.9) 2.6(1.7) 2.4(1.3) 3.0(1.7) 3.5(1.3) 2.2(1.8) 3.7(1.9) 02 - 03 1.5(1.5) 2.4(0.8) 1.6(1.7) 0.3(0.5) 1.9(0.5) 3.0(1.7) 3.0(1.3) 03 - 04 3.7(0.9) 1.7(0.9) 1.9(1.7) 1.4(1.0) 2.4(1.3) 0.5(0.6) 1.9(1.9) 04 - 05 2.4(1.3) 1.3(1.1) 0.8(1.0) 1.4(1.0) 1.4(1.3) 1.6(1.0) 1.5(1.1) 05 - 06 1.9(1.3) 2.6(1.7) 1.6(1.3) 2.2(1.4) 0.5(1.0) 1.4(0.5) 2.4(1.8) 06 - 07 1.7(1.7) 2.6(1.7) 3.0(1.7) 1.6(1.3) 3.0(1.5) 1.1(0.8) 1.7(1.1) 07 - 08 1.7(1.5) 3.7(1.5) 4.1(3.6) 3.2(1.8) 5.7(2.5) 3.8(2.4) 3.9(2.1) 08 - 09 4.5(1.9) 5.0(2.1) 5.9(1.3) 6.8(2.1) 6.8(1.5) 6.2(2.6) 4.8(2.8) 09 - 10 6.7(2.3) 10.6(1. 9) 6.8(1.0) 7.8(2.9) 10.0(1. 5) 5.1(1.7) 7.1(1.8) 10 - 11 8.9(2.9) 8.2(2.7) 7.6(0.6) 7.8(3.3) 8.1(2.1) 7.0(1.9) 8.0(0.9) 11 - 12 7.3(2.4) 7.6(2.3) 8.1(2.6) 9.2(2.4) 9.2(0.6) 8.9(3.0) 8.2(1.8) 12 - 13 8.6(2.5) 11.2(1. 9) 9.5(1.7) 7.0(0.6) 7.0(1.0) 11.3(1. 3) 8.0(4.4) 13 - 14 9.7(4.8) 13.0(1. 6) 6.2(2.4) 7.3(1.0) 5.1(2.9) 11.1(3. 0) 8.2(3.0) 14 - 15 9.1(1.9) 7.8(2.9) 7.6(1.4) 7.6(1.4) 9.7(0.8) 8.9(2.9) 10.8(2. 2) 15 - 16 8.2(1.7) 9.5(3.1) 7.3(2.9) 10.0(3. 3) 8.6(0.8) 6.2(3.3) 6.5(1.9) 16 - 17 7.1(2.3) 9.9(1.6) 9.7(2.2) 6.2(1.3) 5.9(1.3) 5.7(1.0) 4.1(1.8) 17 - 18 6.7(3.1) 9.5(3.1) 10.3(3. 0) 10.8(3. 6) 5.9(4.2) 8.1(4.7) 7.1(3.5) 18 - 19 5.6(2.6) 7.3(2.6) 7.8(5.4) 7.6(2.2) 9.5(3.2) 11.6(3. 5) 6.9(1.9) 19 - 20 8.0(1.3) 6.9(1.5) 5.4(1.4) 6.5(2.4) 7.0(3.7) 6.2(1.3) 8.0(2.5) 20 - 21 8.0(3.8) 7.8(2.4) 5.7(1.3) 5.1(1.0) 7.6(3.4) 8.9(2.2) 6.9(1.5) 21 - 22 5.4(2.3) 5.4(2.9) 5.7(2.5) 4.6(3.7) 3.5(1.3) 6.8(0.5) 3.2(2.8) 22 - 23 5.2(2.3) 6.0(2.9) 3.8(1.7) 6.2(0.5) 5.7(2.2) 7.6(1.8) 6.9(1.8) 23 - 00 3.9(1.5) 2.4(1.3) 4.6(1.0) 2.4(2.1) 4.1(2.1) 4.6(1.0) 3.0(1.6) Technical Note: Arrival Rates 🚑 🚶 Arrival' Rate' Analyzer' Hourly' Arrival' Rates' Percent' Arrivals'by' ESI' Arrival' Mode'by' ESI'
  • 37. Average Arrival Rate 0 2.25 4.5 6.75 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 WRMC UW
  • 38. The Simulation Cycle Analyze and Compare Output Data Collect and Analyze Input Data Problem Set Scope and Goals Understand & Conceptualize System Make ModelVerify & Validate Experiment & Analyze Document & Present
  • 39. Verification & Validation Verification Ensure model matches plan Continuous process Ensure simulation matches maps Validation Ensure model matches reality Tough to do for case study Had to find realistic baseline 0 125 250 375 500 All ESI 1 ESI 2 ESI 3 ESI 4 ESI 5 MH Baseline Given
  • 40. The Simulation Cycle Analyze and Compare Output Data Collect and Analyze Input Data Problem Set Scope and Goals Understand & Conceptualize System Make ModelVerify & Validate Experiment & Analyze Document & Present
  • 42. Report' Exp'3' Exp'2' Exp'1' Technical Note: Patient History Analyzer Analyze multiple experimental results efficiently Designate patient history files Write query Runs same query over all files Outputs report
  • 43. The Simulation Cycle Analyze and Compare Output Data Collect and Analyze Input Data Problem Set Scope and Goals Understand & Conceptualize System Make ModelVerify & Validate Experiment & Analyze Document & Present
  • 44. System Optimization Mathematical Programming Approach Objective: Minimize LoS Constraints: Staffing Requirements Variables: Delivery Method Staffing Levels
  • 45. Finding Baseline Objective: find staffing level for trad that closely matches LoS of WRMC Designed small factorial experiment Used R to find staffing level that matched best 0 51.25 102.5 153.75 205 All 205202 Baseline Given tRN tPA ftRN ftPA edRN edMD PCT Trad Base 1 0 1 1 3 3 8
  • 46. Initial Experimentation Goal Determine the best delivery method and staffing model for each hour of every day. Feasibility?!? Many different runs Group by similar times Unrealistic - times unlikely to be same Modeling breaks down
  • 47. Sequential Experiment Find best delivery method Use baseline for each delivery method Pick whichever has smallest LoS Find best staffing Pseudo factorial experiment First optimize front of house (SFT) Then optimize back of house (E) Pick based on LoS
  • 48. Best Delivery Method: LoS 3 Average Length of Stay (Minutes) 200 250 300 350 271 309 244 SFT PITT TRAD
  • 49. Best Staffing: Pseudo Factorial Design tRN tPA ftRN sft_1 1 2 1 sft_2 1 2 2 sft_3 1 3 2 sft_4 1 3 3 sft_5 1 4 3 sft_6 2 2 1 sft_7 2 3 1 sft_8 2 2 2 sft_9 2 3 2 sft_10 2 4 2 sft_11 2 3 3 sft_12 2 4 3 sft_13 2 5 3 tRN tPA edRN edMD e_1 opt tRN opt tPA 4 4 e_2 opt tRN opt tPA 7 4 e_3 opt tRN opt tPA 7 7 e_4 opt tRN opt tPA 11 4 e_5 opt tRN opt tPA 11 7 e_6 opt tRN opt tPA 11 11 e_7 opt tRN opt tPA 14 7 e_8 opt tRN opt tPA 14 11 e_9 opt tRN opt tPA 14 14
  • 51. Best Staffing: LoS SFTExperiment 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 LoS (minutes) 100 130 160 190 220 EExperiment 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 LoS (minutes) 100 130 160 190 220
  • 53. Delivery Method & Staffing Delivery Method: Super Fast Track Staffing: sft_6 & e_2 Choice should be thoroughly evaluated before implemented tRN tPA ftRN ftPA edRN edMD PCT Choice 2 2 1 1 7 4 8 Mean SD LoS 146 5 TtP 40 3 Prod (MD) 1.3 0.7 Prod (RN/PA) 1.7 0.9
  • 54. The Simulation Cycle Analyze and Compare Output Data Collect and Analyze Input Data Problem Set Scope and Goals Understand & Conceptualize System Make ModelVerify & Validate Experiment & Analyze Document & Present
  • 55. Future Work Project Additional Work To Strengthen Recommendation Economic analysis Work system analysis Increasing Model Realism Treatment processes Modeling based on pathologies Using Simulation In General Many opportunities Big upfront cost, big payoff down the line Modeling is amazing
  • 56. Thank You! Society for Health Systems FlexSim Patti Brennan Dr. Brian Patterson Laura McLay UW ISyE Department UW EM Department
  • 58. References 1. Hoot, Nathan R., et al. "Measuring and forecasting emergency department crowding in real time." Annals of emergency medicine 49.6 (2007): 747-755
 2. Brenner, Stuart, et al. "Modeling and analysis of the emergency department at University of Kentucky Chandler Hospital using simulations." Journal of Emergency Nursing 36.4 (2010): 303-310.
 3. Ajami, Sima, et al. "Waiting time in emergency department by simulation."ITCH. 2011. 
 4. Garcia, Tamyra Carroll, Amy B. Bernstein, and Mary Ann Bush. Emergency department visitors and visits: who used the emergency room in 2007?. US Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, 2010.
 5. Gilboy, Nicki, et al. "Emergency Severity Index (ESI): A Triage Tool for Emergency Department Care, Version 4. Implementation Handbook 2012 Edition. AHRQ Publication No. 12-0014." Rockville, MD (2011).
 6. King, Diane L., David I. Ben-Tovim, and Jane Bassham. "Redesigning emergency department patient flows: application of Lean Thinking to health care." Emergency Medicine Australasia 18.4 (2006): 391-397.
 7. Kelton, W. David, Randall P. Sadowski, and Deborah A. Sadowski. Simulation with ARENA. Vol. 3. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2002.
 8. Law, Averill M., W. David Kelton, and W. David Kelton. Simulation modeling and analysis. Vol. 2. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1991.
 9. Medeiros, Deborah J., Eric Swenson, and Christopher DeFlitch. "Improving patient flow in a hospital emergency department." Proceedings of the 40th Conference on Winter Simulation. Winter Simulation Conference, 2008.
  • 60. Arrival Rate Distribution Hourly Arrival Rate Distributions Time Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 00 - 01 3.9(2.6) 2.8(1.5) 2.7(1.9) 4.1(1.5) 1.9(0.5) 2.4(1.7) 3.7(1.7) 01 - 02 3.9(0.9) 2.6(1.7) 2.4(1.3) 3.0(1.7) 3.5(1.3) 2.2(1.8) 3.7(1.9) 02 - 03 1.5(1.5) 2.4(0.8) 1.6(1.7) 0.3(0.5) 1.9(0.5) 3.0(1.7) 3.0(1.3) 03 - 04 3.7(0.9) 1.7(0.9) 1.9(1.7) 1.4(1.0) 2.4(1.3) 0.5(0.6) 1.9(1.9) 04 - 05 2.4(1.3) 1.3(1.1) 0.8(1.0) 1.4(1.0) 1.4(1.3) 1.6(1.0) 1.5(1.1) 05 - 06 1.9(1.3) 2.6(1.7) 1.6(1.3) 2.2(1.4) 0.5(1.0) 1.4(0.5) 2.4(1.8) 06 - 07 1.7(1.7) 2.6(1.7) 3.0(1.7) 1.6(1.3) 3.0(1.5) 1.1(0.8) 1.7(1.1) 07 - 08 1.7(1.5) 3.7(1.5) 4.1(3.6) 3.2(1.8) 5.7(2.5) 3.8(2.4) 3.9(2.1) 08 - 09 4.5(1.9) 5.0(2.1) 5.9(1.3) 6.8(2.1) 6.8(1.5) 6.2(2.6) 4.8(2.8) 09 - 10 6.7(2.3) 10.6(1.9) 6.8(1.0) 7.8(2.9) 10.0(1.5) 5.1(1.7) 7.1(1.8) 10 - 11 8.9(2.9) 8.2(2.7) 7.6(0.6) 7.8(3.3) 8.1(2.1) 7.0(1.9) 8.0(0.9) 11 - 12 7.3(2.4) 7.6(2.3) 8.1(2.6) 9.2(2.4) 9.2(0.6) 8.9(3.0) 8.2(1.8) 12 - 13 8.6(2.5) 11.2(1.9) 9.5(1.7) 7.0(0.6) 7.0(1.0) 11.3(1.3) 8.0(4.4) 13 - 14 9.7(4.8) 13.0(1.6) 6.2(2.4) 7.3(1.0) 5.1(2.9) 11.1(3.0) 8.2(3.0) 14 - 15 9.1(1.9) 7.8(2.9) 7.6(1.4) 7.6(1.4) 9.7(0.8) 8.9(2.9) 10.8(2.2) 15 - 16 8.2(1.7) 9.5(3.1) 7.3(2.9) 10.0(3.3) 8.6(0.8) 6.2(3.3) 6.5(1.9) 16 - 17 7.1(2.3) 9.9(1.6) 9.7(2.2) 6.2(1.3) 5.9(1.3) 5.7(1.0) 4.1(1.8) 17 - 18 6.7(3.1) 9.5(3.1) 10.3(3.0) 10.8(3.6) 5.9(4.2) 8.1(4.7) 7.1(3.5) 18 - 19 5.6(2.6) 7.3(2.6) 7.8(5.4) 7.6(2.2) 9.5(3.2) 11.6(3.5) 6.9(1.9) 19 - 20 8.0(1.3) 6.9(1.5) 5.4(1.4) 6.5(2.4) 7.0(3.7) 6.2(1.3) 8.0(2.5) 20 - 21 8.0(3.8) 7.8(2.4) 5.7(1.3) 5.1(1.0) 7.6(3.4) 8.9(2.2) 6.9(1.5) 21 - 22 5.4(2.3) 5.4(2.9) 5.7(2.5) 4.6(3.7) 3.5(1.3) 6.8(0.5) 3.2(2.8) 22 - 23 5.2(2.3) 6.0(2.9) 3.8(1.7) 6.2(0.5) 5.7(2.2) 7.6(1.8) 6.9(1.8) 23 - 00 3.9(1.5) 2.4(1.3) 4.6(1.0) 2.4(2.1) 4.1(2.1) 4.6(1.0) 3.0(1.6)
  • 61. Arrival Rate by ESI Class Percent Arrivals by ESI Classification Time ESI 1 ESI 2 ESI 3 ESI 4 ESI 5 00 - 02 0.3 12.2 53.3 31.1 3.1 02 - 04 0.6 15.3 55.3 26.1 2.7 04 - 06 0.2 13.8 58.7 25.6 1.7 06 - 08 0.4 9.6 55.1 30.9 4.0 08 - 10 0.3 15.8 45.2 30.9 7.8 10 - 12 0.6 17.7 45.1 27.6 8.9 12 - 14 0.3 17.6 46.3 27.3 8.6 14 - 16 0.4 17.7 44.7 28.6 8.5 16 - 18 0.4 16.7 46.2 28.6 8.2 18 - 20 0.1 14.6 44.4 34.6 6.3 20 - 22 0.2 12.2 49.2 33.2 4.6 22 - 00 0.1 11.6 47.2 37.3 3.8
  • 62. Arrival Mode Arrival Mode by ESI Mode ESI 1 ESI 2 ESI 3 ESI 4 ESI 5 MH EMS 100 32 32 0 0 0 Walk-in 0 68 68 100 100 100 Percent of Arrivals by ESI ESI 1 ESI 2 ESI 3 ESI 4 ESI 5 MH % of Arr 0.3 15.3 44 26.8 6.7 6.9
  • 63. Testing Testing ESI 1 ESI 2 ESI 3 ESI 4 ESI 5 MH Lab 10 22 31 19 17 99 Xray 6 2 12 27 0 0 L/X 79 67 33 2 0 1 CT 22 22 17 2 0 0 None 0 7 18 52 83 0
  • 64. CMD: LoS & Milestones
  • 68. Experimental Runs • 1 week warm-up time • Run for a week