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Brandon Russell
Sageworks ALLL Specialist
CECL Methodology Series
CRE
January 12, 2016
P R E S E N T E D B Y
Neekis Hammond, CPA
Principal – Advisory Services
About the Webinar
2
• Ask questions throughout the session using the
GoToWebinar control panel
• We will answer as many questions as we can at the
end of the presentation
About Sageworks
• Risk management thought leader
for institutions and examiners
• Regularly featured in national and
trade media
• Loan portfolio and risk
management solutions
• More than 1,000 financial
institution clients
• Founded in 1998
3
Disclaimer
This presentation may include statements that constitute “forward-looking statements”
relative to publicly available industry data. Forward-looking statements often contain
words such as “believe,” “expect,” “plans,” “project,” “target,” “anticipate,” “will,” “should,”
“see,” “guidance,” “confident” and similar terms. There can be no assurance that any of the
future events discussed will occur as anticipated, if at all, or that actual results on the
industry will be as expected. Sageworks is not responsible for the accuracy or validity of
this publicly available industry data, or the outcome of the use of this data relative to
business or investment decisions made by the recipients of this data. Sageworks disclaims
all representations and warranties, express or implied. Risks and uncertainties include
risks related to the effect of economic conditions and financial market conditions;
fluctuation in commodity prices, interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates. No
Sageworks employee is authorized to make recommendations or give advice as to any
course of action that should be made as an outcome of this data. The forward-looking
statements and data speak only as of the date of this presentation and we undertake no
obligation to update or revise this information as of a later date.
4
About Today’s Presenters
Sageworks ALLL Specialist
5
B R A N D ON R U SSELL
Principal – Advisory Services
N EEK IS H A MMON D , C PA
Agenda
• Series Overview
• CRE Segmentation Principles
• CRE Sub-segmentation Principles
• CRE Methodologies and Calculations
» Migration
» PD/LGD (Probability of Default/Loss Given Default)
» DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)
• Questions
CECL Methodology Series
• Thursday, January 12, 2017, 2-3 p.m.: CRE Pool CECL Methodologies
• Thursday, January 26: Consumer Pool CECL Methodologies
• Thursday, February 9, 2017, 2-3 p.m.: C&I Pool CECL Methodologies
• Thursday, February 23, 2017, 2-3 p.m.: Unfunded Commitments & Construction Loan CECL
Methodologies
• Thursday, March 9, 2017, 2-3 p.m.: Forecasting with CECL
• Thursday, March 23, 2017, 2-3 p.m.: Disclosures with CECL
Sign up at: web.sageworks.com/cecl-methodology-webinar-series/
Considerations for Initial Segmentation
Segmentation.
• Amortization Structure
• Payment Structure
• Contract Term
• Interest Rate
» (Fixed v. Variable)
• Exposure Type
» Owner Occupied v. Non-Owner Occupied, Industry, Operational Risk, Etc.
Next Step; Include Risk Characteristic
Sub-segmentation.
• Risk Rating
» Accurate RR is primary indicator
• FICO
» Originated, most recent, banded, etc.
• Days Past Due
» Is this truly predictive of future losses?
• DSCR
• LTV
• Key - Integrating risk metrics with underwriting software makes this actionable
Fundamental Principles
Migration.
• Point-in-Time
» Categorize assets by attribute as of a specific date and observe subsequent activity
• Iterative
» Observe subsequent activity over n periods iteratively as of multiple points-in-time
• Flexible Range
» n periods should equal the life of the pool if performing life-of-loan loss analysis
• FDIC Technical Assistance Video Program
» https://www.fdic.gov/regulations/resources/director/technical/alll.html
Migration.
Pros and Cons
• Pros
» Good Feedback Loop – the analysis is segmented by attributes observed at
origination/renewal
» Practical – easier to perform than PD & LGD and/or DCF
» Familiarity – auditors and regulators are familiar with this approach
» Concentration Shifts – if done properly, migration will more accurately reflect changes in risk
concentrations than simple cumulative loss rate methods
• Cons
» Out-of-date – if n = 3, your most recent observed 3-yr. loss experience is 3 years old
» Vintage – origination and renewal date are typically not leveraged
Inputs
Migration.
14.1%
0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8%
2.4%
12.6%
24.0%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
36 MONTH LOSS RATE - MIGRATION
Outputs
Migration.
0.69% 0.65%
1.36%
1.24%
1.06%
0.97% 1.04%
0.95% 0.91%
9/30/2011 12/31/2011 3/31/2012 6/30/2012 9/30/2012 12/31/2012 3/31/2013 6/30/2013 9/30/2013
36 MONTH LOSS RATE - MIGRATION
Outputs
Migration.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 98.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 0.3% 99.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.0% 0.4% 98.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 98.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 13.7% 83.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0%
6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 3.7% 84.5% 4.0% 0.0%
7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.5% 0.3% 96.7% 0.0%
8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 86.4%
Outputs
Migration.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 98.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 0.3% 99.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.0% 0.4% 98.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 98.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 13.7% 83.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0%
6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 3.7% 84.5% 4.0% 0.0%
7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.5% 0.3% 96.7% 0.0%
8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 86.4%
Outputs
Migration.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 98.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 0.3% 99.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.0% 0.4% 98.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 98.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 13.7% 83.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0%
6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 3.7% 84.5% 4.0% 0.0%
7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.5% 0.3% 96.7% 0.0%
8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 86.4%
Outputs
Migration.
Beginning Risk Grade Analysis Date 36 Month Migration Loss %
4 9/30/2011 0.2%
4 12/31/2011 0.2%
4 3/31/2012 0.6%
4 6/30/2012 0.6%
4 9/30/2012 0.6%
4 12/31/2012 0.5%
4 3/31/2013 0.5%
4 6/30/2013 0.2%
4 9/30/2013 0.7%
4 Total 0.5%
5 9/30/2011 0.0%
5 12/31/2011 1.2%
5 3/31/2012 0.8%
5 6/30/2012 0.7%
5 9/30/2012 0.0%
5 12/31/2012 0.0%
5 3/31/2013 1.4%
5 6/30/2013 2.1%
5 9/30/2013 1.6%
5 Total 0.8%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
9/30/2011
12/31/2011
3/31/2012
6/30/2012
9/30/2012
12/31/2012
3/31/2013
6/30/2013
9/30/2013
4
Poll Question.
Fundamental Principles – Probability of Default
PD & LGD.
• Point-in-Time
» Categorize assets by attribute as of a specific date and observe subsequent default activity
• Iterative
» Observe subsequent default activity over n periods iteratively as of multiple points-in-time
• Flexible Range
» n periods should equal the life of the pool if performing life-of-loan loss analysis
• Default Activity
» Default activity would apply to loans not in default as of the point-in-time under analysis. If
an available loan experiences a default in subsequent n periods the # or $ is considered
PD & LGD.
Pros and Cons
• Pros
» Better Feedback Loop – the analysis is segmented by attributes observed at
origination/renewal
» Wider Utilization – default and loss are separate underwriting considerations, this facilitates
more equipped underwriting practices
» Necessary for DCF – DCF models, when done properly, will include periodic default and
collection of default assumptions
• Cons
» Out-of-date – if n = 3, your most recent observed 3-yr. loss experience is 3 years old
» Vintage – origination and renewal date are typically not leveraged
Inputs
PD & LGD.
Inputs
PD & LGD.
Outputs
PD & LGD.
21.74%
1.02% 1.88% 1.07%
2.77% 3.10%
16.00%
28.38%
0.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
36 MONTH PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT
3.25% 3.27%
3.01%
3.40% 3.40%
2.93%
3.15%
2.73%
2.43%
9/30/2011 12/31/2011 3/31/2012 6/30/2012 9/30/2012 12/31/2012 3/31/2013 6/30/2013 9/30/2013
36 MONTH PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT -TREND
Outputs
PD & LGD.
Collateral Code # Defaults # Available to Default Probability of Default
300 - Real Estate IUB Other 5 30 16.67%
304 - Car Wash 4 119 3.36%
306 - Auto Dealer 5 167 2.99%
317 - Manufacturing Facility 13 320 4.06%
319 - Industrial Facility 34 632 5.38%
320 - Office 45 1662 2.71%
321 - Medical Office 31 599 5.18%
322 - Warehouse 41 646 6.35%
323 - Commercial Lot 10 33 30.30%
324 - Retail 53 1291 4.11%
326 - Commercial Condo 11 125 8.80%
328 - Golf Course 8 58 13.79%
329 - Recreation Facility 9 284 3.17%
330 - Church/Related 13 569 2.28%
331 - Hospital 10 25 40.00%
332 - Vacant Land 1-5 Acres 2 11 18.18%
337 - School/Education Related 2 86 2.33%
342 - Restaurant 31 743 4.17%
344 - Strip Center 5 40 12.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
36 MONTH PD – OWNER OCCUPIED CRE
11.9%
10.5%
5.2%
9.3% 8.8% 8.1%
6.4%
14.7%
9/30/2011 12/31/2011 6/30/2012 9/30/2012 12/31/2012 3/31/2013 6/30/2013 9/30/2013
LOSS GIVEN DEFAULT - TREND
15.0%
22.8%
15.7%
12.8%
15.0% 15.0%
4.8%
18.1%
9/30/2011 12/31/2011 6/30/2012 9/30/2012 12/31/2012 3/31/2013 6/30/2013 9/30/2013
RECOVERY GIVEN LOSS - TREND
Outputs
PD & LGD.
Poll Question.
Fundamental Principles
DCF.
• Go-forward Analysis
» Input periodic default, loss, prepayment, contractual, and collection assumptions and
amortize each credit accordingly
• Discount Expected Cash Flows
» Cash flows are discounted at the instrument level then aggregated into a pool for total NPV
• Timing vs. Credit
» Period to period, institutions will see fluctuation in NPV for timing related items. Such items
can be recorded as interest income. Institutions must disclose this amount
DCF.
Pros and Cons
• Pros
» Best Feedback Loop – Production and yield are great, but NPV represents how great
» Cross Application – Classification and Measurement; simply adjust discount rate assumptions
for fair value. 310-30 updating accretable yield/expected cash flows can be facilitated with
minimal changes to assumptions/inputs
» Increased Forecast Flexibility – Period level forecasts can be performed under this approach.
In other words, one can model a rise and fall in unemployment rate and correlate the impact
to losses
• Cons
» Less Practical – more difficult to perform than PD & LGD and/or DCF
Outputs
DCF.
Segment 1.e.1
GL Balance 1,565,565,815
PV 1,559,569,236
Reserve 5,996,579
Reserve % 0.38%
NPV (Effective) (5,977,900)
NPV (Pricing) 59,902,862
Defaulted Principal 2.98%
Principal 904,883,630
Interest 118,508,137
Prepayment 614,045,605
Estimated Loss 0.30%
Estimated Recovery 41,972,922
Cash Flow 1,679,410,293 $0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
THOUSANDS
Prepaid Principal Interest Collection Estimated Default
Amortization Schedule
DCF.
Date NPER/Period Beginning Balance Principal Interest Prepayment
Defaulted
Principal Estimated Loss
Estimated
Recovery
End of Month
Balance Cash Flow
TOTAL 903,989,324 118,343,162 612,879,479 46,443,050 4,644,305 41,798,745 1,677,010,710
- (1,563,311,854) (1,563,311,854)
12/31/2015 1 1,563,311,854 10,763,327 4,879,366 40,485,455 1,914,877 191,488 - 1,510,148,194 56,128,148
1/31/2016 2 1,510,148,194 10,929,260 4,713,433 38,576,701 1,849,758 184,976 - 1,458,792,475 54,219,394
2/29/2016 3 1,458,792,475 11,089,550 4,553,143 36,732,858 1,786,853 178,685 - 1,409,183,213 52,375,551
3/31/2016 4 1,409,183,213 11,244,389 4,398,304 34,951,719 1,726,087 172,609 - 1,361,261,017 50,594,412
4/30/2016 5 1,361,261,017 11,393,963 4,248,730 33,231,151 1,667,388 166,739 - 1,314,968,515 48,873,844
5/31/2016 6 1,314,968,515 11,538,450 4,104,243 31,569,095 1,610,685 161,069 - 1,270,250,286 47,211,788
6/30/2016 7 1,270,250,286 11,678,023 3,964,670 29,963,560 1,555,910 155,591 - 1,227,052,792 45,606,253
7/31/2016 8 1,227,052,792 11,812,850 3,829,843 28,412,625 1,502,999 150,300 - 1,185,324,319 44,055,318
8/31/2016 9 1,185,324,319 11,943,091 3,699,601 26,914,433 1,451,886 145,189 - 1,145,014,908 42,557,126
9/30/2016 10 1,145,014,908 12,068,904 3,573,789 25,467,190 1,402,512 140,251 - 1,106,076,303 41,109,882
10/31/2016 11 1,106,076,303 12,190,438 3,452,255 24,069,163 1,354,816 135,482 - 1,068,461,886 39,711,856
11/30/2016 12 1,068,461,886 12,307,839 3,334,854 22,718,679 1,308,743 130,874 - 1,032,126,625 38,361,372
Amortization Schedule and Remaining Principal Chart
DCF.
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
$1,800,000
Thousands
Date NPER/Period Beginning Balance Principal Interest Prepayment Defaulted Principal Estimated Loss Estimated Recovery End of Month Balance Cash Flow
TOTAL 903,989,324 118,343,162 612,879,479 46,443,050 4,644,305 41,798,745 1,677,010,710
- (1,563,311,854) (1,563,311,854)
12/31/2015 1 1,563,311,854 10,763,327 4,879,366 40,485,455 1,914,877 191,488 - 1,510,148,194 56,128,148
1/31/2016 2 1,510,148,194 10,929,260 4,713,433 38,576,701 1,849,758 184,976 - 1,458,792,475 54,219,394
2/29/2016 3 1,458,792,475 11,089,550 4,553,143 36,732,858 1,786,853 178,685 - 1,409,183,213 52,375,551
3/31/2016 4 1,409,183,213 11,244,389 4,398,304 34,951,719 1,726,087 172,609 - 1,361,261,017 50,594,412
4/30/2016 5 1,361,261,017 11,393,963 4,248,730 33,231,151 1,667,388 166,739 - 1,314,968,515 48,873,844
5/31/2016 6 1,314,968,515 11,538,450 4,104,243 31,569,095 1,610,685 161,069 - 1,270,250,286 47,211,788
6/30/2016 7 1,270,250,286 11,678,023 3,964,670 29,963,560 1,555,910 155,591 - 1,227,052,792 45,606,253
7/31/2016 8 1,227,052,792 11,812,850 3,829,843 28,412,625 1,502,999 150,300 - 1,185,324,319 44,055,318
8/31/2016 9 1,185,324,319 11,943,091 3,699,601 26,914,433 1,451,886 145,189 - 1,145,014,908 42,557,126
9/30/2016 10 1,145,014,908 12,068,904 3,573,789 25,467,190 1,402,512 140,251 - 1,106,076,303 41,109,882
10/31/2016 11 1,106,076,303 12,190,438 3,452,255 24,069,163 1,354,816 135,482 - 1,068,461,886 39,711,856
11/30/2016 12 1,068,461,886 12,307,839 3,334,854 22,718,679 1,308,743 130,874 - 1,032,126,625 38,361,372
12/31/2016 13 1,032,126,625 12,421,248 3,221,445 21,414,121 1,264,236 126,424 1,723,389 997,027,020 38,780,203
1/31/2017 14 997,027,020 12,530,800 3,111,893 20,153,927 1,221,243 122,124 1,664,782 963,121,050 37,461,402
2/28/2017 15 963,121,050 12,636,626 3,006,067 18,936,589 1,179,712 117,971 1,608,168 930,368,123 36,187,449
3/31/2017 16 930,368,123 12,738,854 2,903,839 17,760,649 1,139,594 113,959 1,553,479 898,729,026 34,956,820
4/30/2017 17 898,729,026 12,837,605 2,805,088 16,624,699 1,100,840 110,084 1,500,649 868,165,883 33,768,041
5/31/2017 18 868,165,883 12,932,998 2,709,695 15,527,379 1,063,403 106,340 1,449,617 838,642,103 32,619,689
6/30/2017 19 838,642,103 13,025,146 2,617,546 14,467,376 1,027,240 102,724 1,400,319 810,122,340 31,510,389
7/31/2017 20 810,122,340 13,114,161 2,528,531 13,443,421 992,307 99,231 1,352,699 782,572,451 30,438,813
8/31/2017 21 782,572,451 13,200,149 2,442,543 12,454,288 958,561 95,856 1,306,697 755,959,453 29,403,678
9/30/2017 22 755,959,453 13,283,213 2,359,480 11,498,792 925,963 92,596 1,262,260 730,251,485 28,403,745
10/31/2017 23 730,251,485 13,363,452 2,279,241 10,575,789 894,474 89,447 1,219,335 705,417,770 27,437,816
11/30/2017 24 705,417,770 13,440,962 2,201,730 9,684,175 864,056 86,406 1,177,869 681,428,576 26,504,737
12/31/2017 25 681,428,576 13,515,837 2,126,856 8,822,883 834,672 83,467 1,137,813 658,255,185 25,603,388
1/31/2018 26 658,255,185 13,588,165 2,054,528 7,990,880 806,287 80,629 1,099,119 635,869,853 24,732,692
2/28/2018 27 635,869,853 13,658,033 1,984,659 7,187,171 778,867 77,887 1,061,741 614,245,781 23,891,605
3/31/2018 28 614,245,781 13,725,526 1,917,167 6,410,795 752,380 75,238 1,025,635 593,357,080 23,079,122
4/30/2018 29 593,357,080 13,790,723 1,851,970 5,660,820 726,794 72,679 990,756 573,178,743 22,294,268
5/31/2018 30 573,178,743 13,853,703 1,788,990 4,936,350 702,078 70,208 957,063 553,686,612 21,536,106
6/30/2018 31 553,686,612 13,914,541 1,728,151 4,236,517 678,202 67,820 924,516 534,857,351 20,803,726
7/31/2018 32 534,857,351 13,973,311 1,669,382 3,560,483 655,139 65,514 893,076 516,668,418 20,096,252
8/31/2018 33 516,668,418 14,030,082 1,612,611 2,907,439 632,859 63,286 862,705 499,098,038 19,412,837
9/30/2018 34 499,098,038 14,084,922 1,557,771 2,276,604 611,338 61,134 833,367 482,125,175 18,752,663
10/31/2018 35 482,125,175 14,137,897 1,504,796 1,667,221 590,548 59,055 805,027 465,729,509 18,114,940
11/30/2018 36 465,729,509 14,189,071 1,453,622 1,078,561 570,465 57,047 777,650 449,891,412 17,498,904
12/31/2018 37 449,891,412 14,238,504 1,404,189 509,920 551,065 55,107 751,204 434,591,922 16,903,818
1/31/2019 38 434,591,922 14,286,257 1,356,436 - 532,325 53,233 725,658 419,773,340 16,368,351
2/28/2019 39 419,773,340 14,332,508 1,310,185 - 514,174 51,417 700,981 404,926,658 16,343,673
3/31/2019 40 404,926,658 14,378,847 1,263,846 - 495,989 49,599 677,142 390,051,823 16,319,835
4/30/2019 41 390,051,823 14,425,274 1,217,419 - 477,769 47,777 654,115 375,148,780 16,296,808
5/31/2019 42 375,148,780 14,471,789 1,170,904 - 459,514 45,951 631,870 360,217,478 16,274,563
6/30/2019 43 360,217,478 14,518,392 1,124,301 - 441,225 44,122 610,382 345,257,861 16,253,075
7/31/2019 44 345,257,861 14,565,084 1,077,609 - 422,901 42,290 589,625 330,269,876 16,232,318
8/31/2019 45 330,269,876 14,611,864 1,030,829 - 404,543 40,454 569,573 315,253,470 16,212,266
9/30/2019 46 315,253,470 14,658,732 983,960 - 386,149 38,615 550,204 300,208,588 16,192,897
10/31/2019 47 300,208,588 14,705,690 937,003 - 367,721 36,772 531,493 285,135,177 16,174,186
11/30/2019 48 285,135,177 14,752,737 889,956 - 349,258 34,926 513,419 270,033,183 16,156,111
12/31/2019 49 270,033,183 14,799,873 842,820 - 330,760 33,076 495,959 254,902,550 16,138,651
1/31/2020 50 254,902,550 14,847,098 795,595 - 312,226 31,223 479,093 239,743,226 16,121,785
2/29/2020 51 239,743,226 239,449,568 748,280 - 293,658 29,366 462,757 - 240,660,605
3/31/2020 52 - - - - - - 446,390 - 446,390
4/30/2020 53 - - - - - - 429,992 - 429,992
5/31/2020 54 - - - - - - 413,563 - 413,563
6/30/2020 55 - - - - - - 397,102 - 397,102
7/31/2020 56 - - - - - - 380,611 - 380,611
8/31/2020 57 - - - - - - 364,088 - 364,088
9/30/2020 58 - - - - - - 347,534 - 347,534
10/31/2020 59 - - - - - - 330,949 - 330,949
11/30/2020 60 - - - - - - 314,332 - 314,332
12/31/2020 61 - - - - - - 297,684 - 297,684
1/31/2021 62 - - - - - - 281,004 - 281,004
2/28/2021 63 - - - - - - 264,292 - 264,292
PD
Migration N/A
PD & LGD 3.69%
DCF 2.98%
Migration/PD&LGD/DCF
Comparison.
Loss Rate
Migration 0.49%
PD & LGD 0.34%
DCF 0.38%
GL Balance
Migration 1,565,565,815
PD & LGD 1,565,565,815
DCF 1,565,565,815
Poll Question.
Q&A
• Follow up email
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CECL Methodology - CRE Loan Pools

  • 1. Brandon Russell Sageworks ALLL Specialist CECL Methodology Series CRE January 12, 2016 P R E S E N T E D B Y Neekis Hammond, CPA Principal – Advisory Services
  • 2. About the Webinar 2 • Ask questions throughout the session using the GoToWebinar control panel • We will answer as many questions as we can at the end of the presentation
  • 3. About Sageworks • Risk management thought leader for institutions and examiners • Regularly featured in national and trade media • Loan portfolio and risk management solutions • More than 1,000 financial institution clients • Founded in 1998 3
  • 4. Disclaimer This presentation may include statements that constitute “forward-looking statements” relative to publicly available industry data. Forward-looking statements often contain words such as “believe,” “expect,” “plans,” “project,” “target,” “anticipate,” “will,” “should,” “see,” “guidance,” “confident” and similar terms. There can be no assurance that any of the future events discussed will occur as anticipated, if at all, or that actual results on the industry will be as expected. Sageworks is not responsible for the accuracy or validity of this publicly available industry data, or the outcome of the use of this data relative to business or investment decisions made by the recipients of this data. Sageworks disclaims all representations and warranties, express or implied. Risks and uncertainties include risks related to the effect of economic conditions and financial market conditions; fluctuation in commodity prices, interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates. No Sageworks employee is authorized to make recommendations or give advice as to any course of action that should be made as an outcome of this data. The forward-looking statements and data speak only as of the date of this presentation and we undertake no obligation to update or revise this information as of a later date. 4
  • 5. About Today’s Presenters Sageworks ALLL Specialist 5 B R A N D ON R U SSELL Principal – Advisory Services N EEK IS H A MMON D , C PA
  • 6. Agenda • Series Overview • CRE Segmentation Principles • CRE Sub-segmentation Principles • CRE Methodologies and Calculations » Migration » PD/LGD (Probability of Default/Loss Given Default) » DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) • Questions
  • 7. CECL Methodology Series • Thursday, January 12, 2017, 2-3 p.m.: CRE Pool CECL Methodologies • Thursday, January 26: Consumer Pool CECL Methodologies • Thursday, February 9, 2017, 2-3 p.m.: C&I Pool CECL Methodologies • Thursday, February 23, 2017, 2-3 p.m.: Unfunded Commitments & Construction Loan CECL Methodologies • Thursday, March 9, 2017, 2-3 p.m.: Forecasting with CECL • Thursday, March 23, 2017, 2-3 p.m.: Disclosures with CECL Sign up at: web.sageworks.com/cecl-methodology-webinar-series/
  • 8. Considerations for Initial Segmentation Segmentation. • Amortization Structure • Payment Structure • Contract Term • Interest Rate » (Fixed v. Variable) • Exposure Type » Owner Occupied v. Non-Owner Occupied, Industry, Operational Risk, Etc.
  • 9. Next Step; Include Risk Characteristic Sub-segmentation. • Risk Rating » Accurate RR is primary indicator • FICO » Originated, most recent, banded, etc. • Days Past Due » Is this truly predictive of future losses? • DSCR • LTV • Key - Integrating risk metrics with underwriting software makes this actionable
  • 10. Fundamental Principles Migration. • Point-in-Time » Categorize assets by attribute as of a specific date and observe subsequent activity • Iterative » Observe subsequent activity over n periods iteratively as of multiple points-in-time • Flexible Range » n periods should equal the life of the pool if performing life-of-loan loss analysis • FDIC Technical Assistance Video Program » https://www.fdic.gov/regulations/resources/director/technical/alll.html
  • 11. Migration. Pros and Cons • Pros » Good Feedback Loop – the analysis is segmented by attributes observed at origination/renewal » Practical – easier to perform than PD & LGD and/or DCF » Familiarity – auditors and regulators are familiar with this approach » Concentration Shifts – if done properly, migration will more accurately reflect changes in risk concentrations than simple cumulative loss rate methods • Cons » Out-of-date – if n = 3, your most recent observed 3-yr. loss experience is 3 years old » Vintage – origination and renewal date are typically not leveraged
  • 13. 14.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 2.4% 12.6% 24.0% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 36 MONTH LOSS RATE - MIGRATION Outputs Migration. 0.69% 0.65% 1.36% 1.24% 1.06% 0.97% 1.04% 0.95% 0.91% 9/30/2011 12/31/2011 3/31/2012 6/30/2012 9/30/2012 12/31/2012 3/31/2013 6/30/2013 9/30/2013 36 MONTH LOSS RATE - MIGRATION
  • 14. Outputs Migration. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 98.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2 0.3% 99.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3 0.0% 0.4% 98.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 4 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 98.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 13.7% 83.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0% 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 3.7% 84.5% 4.0% 0.0% 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.5% 0.3% 96.7% 0.0% 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 86.4%
  • 15. Outputs Migration. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 98.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2 0.3% 99.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3 0.0% 0.4% 98.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 4 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 98.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 13.7% 83.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0% 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 3.7% 84.5% 4.0% 0.0% 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.5% 0.3% 96.7% 0.0% 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 86.4%
  • 16. Outputs Migration. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 98.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2 0.3% 99.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3 0.0% 0.4% 98.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 4 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 98.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 13.7% 83.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0% 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 3.7% 84.5% 4.0% 0.0% 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.5% 0.3% 96.7% 0.0% 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 86.4%
  • 17. Outputs Migration. Beginning Risk Grade Analysis Date 36 Month Migration Loss % 4 9/30/2011 0.2% 4 12/31/2011 0.2% 4 3/31/2012 0.6% 4 6/30/2012 0.6% 4 9/30/2012 0.6% 4 12/31/2012 0.5% 4 3/31/2013 0.5% 4 6/30/2013 0.2% 4 9/30/2013 0.7% 4 Total 0.5% 5 9/30/2011 0.0% 5 12/31/2011 1.2% 5 3/31/2012 0.8% 5 6/30/2012 0.7% 5 9/30/2012 0.0% 5 12/31/2012 0.0% 5 3/31/2013 1.4% 5 6/30/2013 2.1% 5 9/30/2013 1.6% 5 Total 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 9/30/2011 12/31/2011 3/31/2012 6/30/2012 9/30/2012 12/31/2012 3/31/2013 6/30/2013 9/30/2013 4
  • 19. Fundamental Principles – Probability of Default PD & LGD. • Point-in-Time » Categorize assets by attribute as of a specific date and observe subsequent default activity • Iterative » Observe subsequent default activity over n periods iteratively as of multiple points-in-time • Flexible Range » n periods should equal the life of the pool if performing life-of-loan loss analysis • Default Activity » Default activity would apply to loans not in default as of the point-in-time under analysis. If an available loan experiences a default in subsequent n periods the # or $ is considered
  • 20. PD & LGD. Pros and Cons • Pros » Better Feedback Loop – the analysis is segmented by attributes observed at origination/renewal » Wider Utilization – default and loss are separate underwriting considerations, this facilitates more equipped underwriting practices » Necessary for DCF – DCF models, when done properly, will include periodic default and collection of default assumptions • Cons » Out-of-date – if n = 3, your most recent observed 3-yr. loss experience is 3 years old » Vintage – origination and renewal date are typically not leveraged
  • 23. Outputs PD & LGD. 21.74% 1.02% 1.88% 1.07% 2.77% 3.10% 16.00% 28.38% 0.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 36 MONTH PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT 3.25% 3.27% 3.01% 3.40% 3.40% 2.93% 3.15% 2.73% 2.43% 9/30/2011 12/31/2011 3/31/2012 6/30/2012 9/30/2012 12/31/2012 3/31/2013 6/30/2013 9/30/2013 36 MONTH PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT -TREND
  • 24. Outputs PD & LGD. Collateral Code # Defaults # Available to Default Probability of Default 300 - Real Estate IUB Other 5 30 16.67% 304 - Car Wash 4 119 3.36% 306 - Auto Dealer 5 167 2.99% 317 - Manufacturing Facility 13 320 4.06% 319 - Industrial Facility 34 632 5.38% 320 - Office 45 1662 2.71% 321 - Medical Office 31 599 5.18% 322 - Warehouse 41 646 6.35% 323 - Commercial Lot 10 33 30.30% 324 - Retail 53 1291 4.11% 326 - Commercial Condo 11 125 8.80% 328 - Golf Course 8 58 13.79% 329 - Recreation Facility 9 284 3.17% 330 - Church/Related 13 569 2.28% 331 - Hospital 10 25 40.00% 332 - Vacant Land 1-5 Acres 2 11 18.18% 337 - School/Education Related 2 86 2.33% 342 - Restaurant 31 743 4.17% 344 - Strip Center 5 40 12.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 36 MONTH PD – OWNER OCCUPIED CRE
  • 25. 11.9% 10.5% 5.2% 9.3% 8.8% 8.1% 6.4% 14.7% 9/30/2011 12/31/2011 6/30/2012 9/30/2012 12/31/2012 3/31/2013 6/30/2013 9/30/2013 LOSS GIVEN DEFAULT - TREND 15.0% 22.8% 15.7% 12.8% 15.0% 15.0% 4.8% 18.1% 9/30/2011 12/31/2011 6/30/2012 9/30/2012 12/31/2012 3/31/2013 6/30/2013 9/30/2013 RECOVERY GIVEN LOSS - TREND Outputs PD & LGD.
  • 27. Fundamental Principles DCF. • Go-forward Analysis » Input periodic default, loss, prepayment, contractual, and collection assumptions and amortize each credit accordingly • Discount Expected Cash Flows » Cash flows are discounted at the instrument level then aggregated into a pool for total NPV • Timing vs. Credit » Period to period, institutions will see fluctuation in NPV for timing related items. Such items can be recorded as interest income. Institutions must disclose this amount
  • 28. DCF. Pros and Cons • Pros » Best Feedback Loop – Production and yield are great, but NPV represents how great » Cross Application – Classification and Measurement; simply adjust discount rate assumptions for fair value. 310-30 updating accretable yield/expected cash flows can be facilitated with minimal changes to assumptions/inputs » Increased Forecast Flexibility – Period level forecasts can be performed under this approach. In other words, one can model a rise and fall in unemployment rate and correlate the impact to losses • Cons » Less Practical – more difficult to perform than PD & LGD and/or DCF
  • 29. Outputs DCF. Segment 1.e.1 GL Balance 1,565,565,815 PV 1,559,569,236 Reserve 5,996,579 Reserve % 0.38% NPV (Effective) (5,977,900) NPV (Pricing) 59,902,862 Defaulted Principal 2.98% Principal 904,883,630 Interest 118,508,137 Prepayment 614,045,605 Estimated Loss 0.30% Estimated Recovery 41,972,922 Cash Flow 1,679,410,293 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 THOUSANDS Prepaid Principal Interest Collection Estimated Default
  • 30. Amortization Schedule DCF. Date NPER/Period Beginning Balance Principal Interest Prepayment Defaulted Principal Estimated Loss Estimated Recovery End of Month Balance Cash Flow TOTAL 903,989,324 118,343,162 612,879,479 46,443,050 4,644,305 41,798,745 1,677,010,710 - (1,563,311,854) (1,563,311,854) 12/31/2015 1 1,563,311,854 10,763,327 4,879,366 40,485,455 1,914,877 191,488 - 1,510,148,194 56,128,148 1/31/2016 2 1,510,148,194 10,929,260 4,713,433 38,576,701 1,849,758 184,976 - 1,458,792,475 54,219,394 2/29/2016 3 1,458,792,475 11,089,550 4,553,143 36,732,858 1,786,853 178,685 - 1,409,183,213 52,375,551 3/31/2016 4 1,409,183,213 11,244,389 4,398,304 34,951,719 1,726,087 172,609 - 1,361,261,017 50,594,412 4/30/2016 5 1,361,261,017 11,393,963 4,248,730 33,231,151 1,667,388 166,739 - 1,314,968,515 48,873,844 5/31/2016 6 1,314,968,515 11,538,450 4,104,243 31,569,095 1,610,685 161,069 - 1,270,250,286 47,211,788 6/30/2016 7 1,270,250,286 11,678,023 3,964,670 29,963,560 1,555,910 155,591 - 1,227,052,792 45,606,253 7/31/2016 8 1,227,052,792 11,812,850 3,829,843 28,412,625 1,502,999 150,300 - 1,185,324,319 44,055,318 8/31/2016 9 1,185,324,319 11,943,091 3,699,601 26,914,433 1,451,886 145,189 - 1,145,014,908 42,557,126 9/30/2016 10 1,145,014,908 12,068,904 3,573,789 25,467,190 1,402,512 140,251 - 1,106,076,303 41,109,882 10/31/2016 11 1,106,076,303 12,190,438 3,452,255 24,069,163 1,354,816 135,482 - 1,068,461,886 39,711,856 11/30/2016 12 1,068,461,886 12,307,839 3,334,854 22,718,679 1,308,743 130,874 - 1,032,126,625 38,361,372
  • 31. Amortization Schedule and Remaining Principal Chart DCF. $0 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 $1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 $1,600,000 $1,800,000 Thousands Date NPER/Period Beginning Balance Principal Interest Prepayment Defaulted Principal Estimated Loss Estimated Recovery End of Month Balance Cash Flow TOTAL 903,989,324 118,343,162 612,879,479 46,443,050 4,644,305 41,798,745 1,677,010,710 - (1,563,311,854) (1,563,311,854) 12/31/2015 1 1,563,311,854 10,763,327 4,879,366 40,485,455 1,914,877 191,488 - 1,510,148,194 56,128,148 1/31/2016 2 1,510,148,194 10,929,260 4,713,433 38,576,701 1,849,758 184,976 - 1,458,792,475 54,219,394 2/29/2016 3 1,458,792,475 11,089,550 4,553,143 36,732,858 1,786,853 178,685 - 1,409,183,213 52,375,551 3/31/2016 4 1,409,183,213 11,244,389 4,398,304 34,951,719 1,726,087 172,609 - 1,361,261,017 50,594,412 4/30/2016 5 1,361,261,017 11,393,963 4,248,730 33,231,151 1,667,388 166,739 - 1,314,968,515 48,873,844 5/31/2016 6 1,314,968,515 11,538,450 4,104,243 31,569,095 1,610,685 161,069 - 1,270,250,286 47,211,788 6/30/2016 7 1,270,250,286 11,678,023 3,964,670 29,963,560 1,555,910 155,591 - 1,227,052,792 45,606,253 7/31/2016 8 1,227,052,792 11,812,850 3,829,843 28,412,625 1,502,999 150,300 - 1,185,324,319 44,055,318 8/31/2016 9 1,185,324,319 11,943,091 3,699,601 26,914,433 1,451,886 145,189 - 1,145,014,908 42,557,126 9/30/2016 10 1,145,014,908 12,068,904 3,573,789 25,467,190 1,402,512 140,251 - 1,106,076,303 41,109,882 10/31/2016 11 1,106,076,303 12,190,438 3,452,255 24,069,163 1,354,816 135,482 - 1,068,461,886 39,711,856 11/30/2016 12 1,068,461,886 12,307,839 3,334,854 22,718,679 1,308,743 130,874 - 1,032,126,625 38,361,372 12/31/2016 13 1,032,126,625 12,421,248 3,221,445 21,414,121 1,264,236 126,424 1,723,389 997,027,020 38,780,203 1/31/2017 14 997,027,020 12,530,800 3,111,893 20,153,927 1,221,243 122,124 1,664,782 963,121,050 37,461,402 2/28/2017 15 963,121,050 12,636,626 3,006,067 18,936,589 1,179,712 117,971 1,608,168 930,368,123 36,187,449 3/31/2017 16 930,368,123 12,738,854 2,903,839 17,760,649 1,139,594 113,959 1,553,479 898,729,026 34,956,820 4/30/2017 17 898,729,026 12,837,605 2,805,088 16,624,699 1,100,840 110,084 1,500,649 868,165,883 33,768,041 5/31/2017 18 868,165,883 12,932,998 2,709,695 15,527,379 1,063,403 106,340 1,449,617 838,642,103 32,619,689 6/30/2017 19 838,642,103 13,025,146 2,617,546 14,467,376 1,027,240 102,724 1,400,319 810,122,340 31,510,389 7/31/2017 20 810,122,340 13,114,161 2,528,531 13,443,421 992,307 99,231 1,352,699 782,572,451 30,438,813 8/31/2017 21 782,572,451 13,200,149 2,442,543 12,454,288 958,561 95,856 1,306,697 755,959,453 29,403,678 9/30/2017 22 755,959,453 13,283,213 2,359,480 11,498,792 925,963 92,596 1,262,260 730,251,485 28,403,745 10/31/2017 23 730,251,485 13,363,452 2,279,241 10,575,789 894,474 89,447 1,219,335 705,417,770 27,437,816 11/30/2017 24 705,417,770 13,440,962 2,201,730 9,684,175 864,056 86,406 1,177,869 681,428,576 26,504,737 12/31/2017 25 681,428,576 13,515,837 2,126,856 8,822,883 834,672 83,467 1,137,813 658,255,185 25,603,388 1/31/2018 26 658,255,185 13,588,165 2,054,528 7,990,880 806,287 80,629 1,099,119 635,869,853 24,732,692 2/28/2018 27 635,869,853 13,658,033 1,984,659 7,187,171 778,867 77,887 1,061,741 614,245,781 23,891,605 3/31/2018 28 614,245,781 13,725,526 1,917,167 6,410,795 752,380 75,238 1,025,635 593,357,080 23,079,122 4/30/2018 29 593,357,080 13,790,723 1,851,970 5,660,820 726,794 72,679 990,756 573,178,743 22,294,268 5/31/2018 30 573,178,743 13,853,703 1,788,990 4,936,350 702,078 70,208 957,063 553,686,612 21,536,106 6/30/2018 31 553,686,612 13,914,541 1,728,151 4,236,517 678,202 67,820 924,516 534,857,351 20,803,726 7/31/2018 32 534,857,351 13,973,311 1,669,382 3,560,483 655,139 65,514 893,076 516,668,418 20,096,252 8/31/2018 33 516,668,418 14,030,082 1,612,611 2,907,439 632,859 63,286 862,705 499,098,038 19,412,837 9/30/2018 34 499,098,038 14,084,922 1,557,771 2,276,604 611,338 61,134 833,367 482,125,175 18,752,663 10/31/2018 35 482,125,175 14,137,897 1,504,796 1,667,221 590,548 59,055 805,027 465,729,509 18,114,940 11/30/2018 36 465,729,509 14,189,071 1,453,622 1,078,561 570,465 57,047 777,650 449,891,412 17,498,904 12/31/2018 37 449,891,412 14,238,504 1,404,189 509,920 551,065 55,107 751,204 434,591,922 16,903,818 1/31/2019 38 434,591,922 14,286,257 1,356,436 - 532,325 53,233 725,658 419,773,340 16,368,351 2/28/2019 39 419,773,340 14,332,508 1,310,185 - 514,174 51,417 700,981 404,926,658 16,343,673 3/31/2019 40 404,926,658 14,378,847 1,263,846 - 495,989 49,599 677,142 390,051,823 16,319,835 4/30/2019 41 390,051,823 14,425,274 1,217,419 - 477,769 47,777 654,115 375,148,780 16,296,808 5/31/2019 42 375,148,780 14,471,789 1,170,904 - 459,514 45,951 631,870 360,217,478 16,274,563 6/30/2019 43 360,217,478 14,518,392 1,124,301 - 441,225 44,122 610,382 345,257,861 16,253,075 7/31/2019 44 345,257,861 14,565,084 1,077,609 - 422,901 42,290 589,625 330,269,876 16,232,318 8/31/2019 45 330,269,876 14,611,864 1,030,829 - 404,543 40,454 569,573 315,253,470 16,212,266 9/30/2019 46 315,253,470 14,658,732 983,960 - 386,149 38,615 550,204 300,208,588 16,192,897 10/31/2019 47 300,208,588 14,705,690 937,003 - 367,721 36,772 531,493 285,135,177 16,174,186 11/30/2019 48 285,135,177 14,752,737 889,956 - 349,258 34,926 513,419 270,033,183 16,156,111 12/31/2019 49 270,033,183 14,799,873 842,820 - 330,760 33,076 495,959 254,902,550 16,138,651 1/31/2020 50 254,902,550 14,847,098 795,595 - 312,226 31,223 479,093 239,743,226 16,121,785 2/29/2020 51 239,743,226 239,449,568 748,280 - 293,658 29,366 462,757 - 240,660,605 3/31/2020 52 - - - - - - 446,390 - 446,390 4/30/2020 53 - - - - - - 429,992 - 429,992 5/31/2020 54 - - - - - - 413,563 - 413,563 6/30/2020 55 - - - - - - 397,102 - 397,102 7/31/2020 56 - - - - - - 380,611 - 380,611 8/31/2020 57 - - - - - - 364,088 - 364,088 9/30/2020 58 - - - - - - 347,534 - 347,534 10/31/2020 59 - - - - - - 330,949 - 330,949 11/30/2020 60 - - - - - - 314,332 - 314,332 12/31/2020 61 - - - - - - 297,684 - 297,684 1/31/2021 62 - - - - - - 281,004 - 281,004 2/28/2021 63 - - - - - - 264,292 - 264,292
  • 32. PD Migration N/A PD & LGD 3.69% DCF 2.98% Migration/PD&LGD/DCF Comparison. Loss Rate Migration 0.49% PD & LGD 0.34% DCF 0.38% GL Balance Migration 1,565,565,815 PD & LGD 1,565,565,815 DCF 1,565,565,815
  • 34. Q&A • Follow up email • ALLL.com • SageworksAnalyst.com – latest whitepapers and archived webinars • SageworksAnalyst.com – product and advisory services information • Risk Management Summit 2017 – September 24-27 in Denver, CO 34 RESOURCES Brandon Russell Sageworks ALLL Specialist Brandon.Russell@Sageworks.com Neekis Hammond, CPA Sageworks Advisory Services Neekis.Hammond@Sageworks.com PRESENTERS