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CECL - Credit & Finance
ENSURING YOUR CECL MODEL BENEFITS LENDING,
CREDIT, ACCOUNTING AND FINANCE
October 19 · 2017
Disclaimer
3
This presentation may include statements that constitute “forward-looking statements” relative to publicly
available industry data. Forward-looking statements often contain words such as “believe,” “expect,”
“plans,” “project,” “target,” “anticipate,” “will,” “should,” “see,” “guidance,” “confident” and similar terms.
There can be no assurance that any of the future events discussed will occur as anticipated, if at all, or that
actual results on the industry will be as expected. Sageworks is not responsible for the accuracy or validity
of this publicly available industry data, or the outcome of the use of this data relative to business or
investment decisions made by the recipients of this data. Sageworks disclaims all representations and
warranties, express or implied. Risks and uncertainties include risks related to the effect of economic
conditions and financial market conditions; fluctuation in commodity prices, interest rates and foreign
currency exchange rates. No Sageworks employee is authorized to make recommendations or give advice
as to any course of action that should be made as an outcome of this data. The forward-looking statements
and data speak only as of the date of this presentation and we undertake no obligation to update or revise
this information as of a later date.
About Sageworks
4
CECL - Credit & Finance
6
AGENDA
• CECL Paradigm: Governing thought pattern that maximizes success for all stakeholders
» What, When, How to execute
• Cross Application: Leverage CECL models and model results for more than journal entries
» Quantify value
• Evaluation: The observed performance of underlying assets can provide meaningful
managerial insight
» Quantify experience
• Summary: The relationship between CECL, valuation, and evaluation
CECL - Credit & Finance
7
AGENDA
• CECL Paradigm: Governing thought pattern that maximizes success for all stakeholders
» What, When, How to execute
• Cross Application: Leverage CECL models and model results for more than journal entries
» Quantify value
• Evaluation: The observed performance of underlying assets can provide meaningful
managerial insight
» Quantify experience
• Summary: The relationship between CECL, valuation, and evaluation
8
• Link to FASB
CECL Paradigm – Why
9
FASB – ASU 2016-13
Example balance sheet (assets) contains long-term
instruments in the form of loans and leases.
“An entity shall estimate expected credit
losses over the contractual term of the
financial asset(s)”
“When developing an estimate of expected
credit losses on financial asset(s), an entity
shall consider available information
relevant to assessing the collectability of
cash flows”
• Link to FASB
CECL Paradigm – Why
10
KEY QUESTIONS
Flexibility, methodology comparisons, volatility, and cross-application
are key considerations for implementation.
Will the first attempt be the final
model?
Will the industry evolve in it’s
interpretation and application?
Will other stakeholders within the
institution leverage the analytical
outputs for managerial purposes?
CECL Paradigm
11
What When How
CECL Paradigm
12
What specific
objectives need to
be accomplished
When How
CECL Paradigm
13
What specific
objectives need to
be accomplished
When does each
objective need to
be accomplished
How
CECL Paradigm
14
What specific
objectives need to
be accomplished
When does each
objective need to
be accomplished
How will each
objective be
accomplished
CECL Paradigm – What
15
Data – Adequacy, Accuracy, Availability
CECL Paradigm – What
16
Data – Adequacy, Accuracy, Availability
Historical Performance – Life, Loss, Methodology
CECL Paradigm – What
17
Data – Adequacy, Accuracy, Availability
Historical Performance – Life, Loss, Methodology
Forecasting – Impact to Life, Loss, and Methodology
CECL Paradigm – What/When
18
Data – Adequacy, Accuracy, Availability/LATE
Historical Performance – Life, Loss, Methodology/NOW/2018
Forecasting – Impact to Life, Loss, and Methodology/2019/20
19
2018 Q1 Q2 Q4 2019 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 2021
2018 • Data assurance is complete/remediation started
• Methodology/Segmentation comparisons
• Forecasting exploration
• Formal/documented parallel calculations
• Disclosure preparation
• Processes, procedures, and control documentation
2019
• SEC filers go-live/record journal entries
• Non-SEC filers common size comparisons with analogous SEC filers
2020
CECL Paradigm – What/When
20
2018 Q1 Q2 Q4 2019 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 2021
2018 • Data assurance is complete/remediation started
• Methodology/Segmentation comparisons
• Forecasting exploration
• Formal/documented parallel calculations
• Disclosure preparation
• Processes, procedures, and control documentation
2019
• SEC filers go-live/record journal entries
• Non-SEC filers common size comparisons with analogous SEC filers
2020
CECL Paradigm – What/When
21
2018 Q1 Q2 Q4 2019 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 2021
2018 • Data assurance is complete/remediation started
• Methodology/Segmentation comparisons
• Forecasting exploration
• Formal/documented parallel calculations
• Disclosure preparation
• Processes, procedures, and control documentation
2019
• SEC filers go-live/record journal entries
• Non-SEC filers common size comparisons with analogous SEC filers
2020
CECL Paradigm – What/When
22
2018 Q1 Q2 Q4 2019 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 2021
2018 • Data assurance is complete/remediation started
• Methodology/Segmentation comparisons
• Forecasting exploration
• Formal/documented parallel calculations
• Disclosure preparation
• Processes, procedures, and control documentation
2019
• SEC filers go-live/record journal entries
• Non-SEC filers common size comparisons with analogous SEC filers
2020
CECL Paradigm – What/When
23
Poll Question
24
CECL Transition - Example
Continued >>
25
CECL Transition - Example
<< Continued
CECL - Credit & Finance
26
AGENDA
CECL Paradigm: Governing thought pattern that maximizes success for all stakeholders
» What, When, How to execute
• Cross Application: Leverage CECL models and model results for more than journal entries
» Quantify value
• Evaluation: The observed performance of underlying assets can provide meaningful
managerial insight
» Quantify experience
• Summary: The relationship between CECL, valuation, and evaluation
CECL - Credit & Finance
27
AGENDA
CECL Paradigm: Governing thought pattern that maximizes success for all stakeholders
» What, When, How to execute
• Cross Application: Leverage CECL models and model results for more than journal entries
» Quantify value
• Evaluation: The observed performance of underlying assets can provide meaningful
managerial insight
» Quantify experience
• Summary: The relationship between CECL, valuation, and evaluation
Loan Valuation – Why
28
FASB – DECEMBER 20, 2012
Example balance sheet (assets) contains long-term
instruments in the form of loans and leases.
“The CECL model uses a single expected
credit loss measurement objective for the
allowance for credit loss. Under this model,
the allowance for expected credit losses
would reflect management’s current
estimate of the contractual cash flows that
the company does not expect to collect,
based on its assessment of credit risk as of
the reporting date.”
• Link to FASB
CECL - Credit & Finance
29
WHO OWNS THE PROCESS NOW?
CECL - Credit & Finance
30
WHO WILL OWN THE NEW PROCESS?
CECL - Credit & Finance
31
CROSS-FUNCTIONAL OPPORTUNITIES
• Credit Risk Evaluation: Leverage risk-level history for underwriting/pricing considerations
» Are better rated credits experiencing better default and loss performance
• Risk Rating Testing: Do risk ratings correlate to risk and are risk ratings being updated
» Do loans move to loss from pass quickly and are loans migrating or stagnant
• ALM: Prepayment speed and/or life assumption confirmation and/or testing
» Ensure symmetry or explain asymmetry
• Stress Testing: Some CECL methodologies align with stress testing exercises
» What happens to the loan portfolio under defined economic conditions
• Fair Value: Some CECL methodologies align with fair value exercises
32
• Link to FASB
Loan Valuation/Fair Value/Exit Price
33
What When How
Loan Valuation/Fair Value/Exit Price
34
What are the
purposes of loan
valuations
When How
Loan Valuation/Fair Value/Exit Price
35
What are the
purposes of loan
valuations
When are loan
valuations
required
How
Loan Valuation/Fair Value/Exit Price
36
What are the
purposes of loan
valuations
When are loan
valuations
required
How are loan
valuations
executed
Loan Valuation – What is the Purpose
37
Classification and Measurement – ASU 2016-1 (PBE/SEC)
Loan Valuation – What is the Purpose
38
Classification and Measurement – ASU 2016-1 (PBE/SEC)
Fair Value – How market participants value the loan portfolio
Loan Valuation – What is the Purpose
39
Profitability – Lifetime profitability not next year’s net income
Classification and Measurement – ASU 2016-1 (PBE/SEC)
Fair Value – How market participants value the loan portfolio
Loan Valuation – When
40
Profitability – Whenever earnings are of interest
Classification and Measurement – Q1 2018 PBE and SEC filers
Fair Value – “As of” an acquisition, merger or asset purchase
Period Balance Principal Interest Payment Prepayment Defaults Estimated Loss Cash Flow NPV
1 200,511 1,228 769 1,996 2,478 422 63 4,474 4,457
2 196,383 1,103 749 1,852 2,427 414 62 4,279 4,246
3 192,439 1,229 738 1,966 2,376 405 61 4,343 4,293
4 188,429 1,097 718 1,815 2,327 397 60 4,142 4,078
5 184,608 1,143 707 1,851 2,277 389 58 4,128 4,048
6 180,798 1,147 693 1,839 2,229 381 57 4,068 3,974
7 177,042 1,125 674 1,799 2,181 373 56 3,980 3,873
8 173,363 1,247 664 1,911 2,133 365 55 4,044 3,920
9 169,618 1,388 646 2,033 2,086 357 54 4,120 3,979
10 165,787 1,197 635 1,832 2,040 349 52 3,872 3,724
11 … … … … … … … … …
Loan Valuation – How
41
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – CECL
Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s
Period Balance Principal Interest Payment Prepayment Defaults Estimated Loss Cash Flow NPV
1 200,511 1,228 769 1,996 2,478 422 63 4,474 4,457
2 196,383 1,103 749 1,852 2,427 414 62 4,279 4,246
3 192,439 1,229 738 1,966 2,376 405 61 4,343 4,293
4 188,429 1,097 718 1,815 2,327 397 60 4,142 4,078
5 184,608 1,143 707 1,851 2,277 389 58 4,128 4,048
6 180,798 1,147 693 1,839 2,229 381 57 4,068 3,974
7 177,042 1,125 674 1,799 2,181 373 56 3,980 3,873
8 173,363 1,247 664 1,911 2,133 365 55 4,044 3,920
9 169,618 1,388 646 2,033 2,086 357 54 4,120 3,979
10 165,787 1,197 635 1,832 2,040 349 52 3,872 3,724
11 … … … … … … … … …
Loan Valuation – How
42
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – CECL
Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s
Period Balance Principal Interest Payment Prepayment Defaults Estimated Loss Cash Flow NPV
1 200,511 1,228 769 1,996 2,478 422 63 4,474 4,457
2 196,383 1,103 749 1,852 2,427 414 62 4,279 4,246
3 192,439 1,229 738 1,966 2,376 405 61 4,343 4,293
4 188,429 1,097 718 1,815 2,327 397 60 4,142 4,078
5 184,608 1,143 707 1,851 2,277 389 58 4,128 4,048
6 180,798 1,147 693 1,839 2,229 381 57 4,068 3,974
7 177,042 1,125 674 1,799 2,181 373 56 3,980 3,873
8 173,363 1,247 664 1,911 2,133 365 55 4,044 3,920
9 169,618 1,388 646 2,033 2,086 357 54 4,120 3,979
10 165,787 1,197 635 1,832 2,040 349 52 3,872 3,724
11 … … … … … … … … …
Loan Valuation – How
43
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – CECL
Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s
Period Balance Principal Interest Payment Prepayment Defaults Estimated Loss Cash Flow NPV
1 200,511 1,228 769 1,996 2,478 422 63 4,474 4,457
2 196,383 1,103 749 1,852 2,427 414 62 4,279 4,246
3 192,439 1,229 738 1,966 2,376 405 61 4,343 4,293
4 188,429 1,097 718 1,815 2,327 397 60 4,142 4,078
5 184,608 1,143 707 1,851 2,277 389 58 4,128 4,048
6 180,798 1,147 693 1,839 2,229 381 57 4,068 3,974
7 177,042 1,125 674 1,799 2,181 373 56 3,980 3,873
8 173,363 1,247 664 1,911 2,133 365 55 4,044 3,920
9 169,618 1,388 646 2,033 2,086 357 54 4,120 3,979
10 165,787 1,197 635 1,832 2,040 349 52 3,872 3,724
11 … … … … … … … … …
Loan Valuation – How
44
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – CECL
Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s
Period Balance Principal Interest Payment Prepayment Defaults Estimated Loss Cash Flow NPV
1 200,511 1,228 769 1,996 2,478 422 63 4,474 4,457
2 196,383 1,103 749 1,852 2,427 414 62 4,279 4,246
3 192,439 1,229 738 1,966 2,376 405 61 4,343 4,293
4 188,429 1,097 718 1,815 2,327 397 60 4,142 4,078
5 184,608 1,143 707 1,851 2,277 389 58 4,128 4,048
6 180,798 1,147 693 1,839 2,229 381 57 4,068 3,974
7 177,042 1,125 674 1,799 2,181 373 56 3,980 3,873
8 173,363 1,247 664 1,911 2,133 365 55 4,044 3,920
9 169,618 1,388 646 2,033 2,086 357 54 4,120 3,979
10 165,787 1,197 635 1,832 2,040 349 52 3,872 3,724
11 … … … … … … … … …
Loan Valuation – How
45
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – CECL
Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s
Loan Valuation – How
46
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – CECL
Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s
Period Balance Cash Flow NPV
1 200,511 4,474 4,457
2 196,383 4,279 4,246
3 192,439 4,343 4,293
4 188,429 4,142 4,078
5 184,608 4,128 4,048
6 180,798 4,068 3,974
7 177,042 3,980 3,873
8 173,363 4,044 3,920
9 169,618 4,120 3,979
10 165,787 3,872 3,724
11 … … …
Aggregate NPV of projected cash flow (effective yield
discount rate) relative to book balance/amortized cost
basis.
Loan Valuation – How
47
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – CECL
Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s
Period Balance Cash Flow NPV
1 200,511 4,474 4,457
2 196,383 4,279 4,246
3 192,439 4,343 4,293
4 188,429 4,142 4,078
5 184,608 4,128 4,048
6 180,798 4,068 3,974
7 177,042 3,980 3,873
8 173,363 4,044 3,920
9 169,618 4,120 3,979
10 165,787 3,872 3,724
11 … … …
Aggregate NPV of projected cash flow (effective yield
discount rate) relative to book balance/amortized cost
basis.
Loan Valuation – How
48
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – VALUATION “LEVEL 3” INPUTS
Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s
Period Balance Principal Interest Payment Prepayment Defaults Estimated Loss Cash Flow NPV
1 200,511 1,228 769 1,996 2,478 422 63 4,474 4,457
2 196,383 1,103 749 1,852 2,427 414 62 4,279 4,245
3 192,439 1,229 738 1,966 2,376 405 61 4,343 4,292
4 188,429 1,097 718 1,815 2,327 397 60 4,142 4,077
5 184,608 1,143 707 1,851 2,277 389 58 4,128 4,047
6 180,798 1,147 693 1,839 2,229 381 57 4,068 3,973
7 177,042 1,125 674 1,799 2,181 373 56 3,980 3,871
8 173,363 1,247 664 1,911 2,133 365 55 4,044 3,918
9 169,618 1,388 646 2,033 2,086 357 54 4,120 3,976
10 165,787 1,197 635 1,832 2,040 349 52 3,872 3,722
11 … … … … … … … … …
Loan Valuation – How
49
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – VALUATION “LEVEL 3” INPUTS
Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s
Period Balance Cash Flow NPV
1 200,511 4,474 4,457
2 196,383 4,279 4,245
3 192,439 4,343 4,292
4 188,429 4,142 4,077
5 184,608 4,128 4,047
6 180,798 4,068 3,973
7 177,042 3,980 3,871
8 173,363 4,044 3,918
9 169,618 4,120 3,976
10 165,787 3,872 3,722
11 … … …
Aggregate NPV of projected cash flow (effective yield discount
rate vs. fair value discount rate).
Period Balance Cash Flow NPV Discount
Total 200,511 225,705 196,619 1.94%
Period Balance Cash Flow NPV ALLL
Total 200,511 225,705 197,931 1.29%
Period Balance Cash Flow NPV Variance
Total 200,511 225,705 -1,312 -.65%
Loan Valuation – How
50
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – VALUATION “LEVEL 3” INPUTS
Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s
Period Balance Cash Flow NPV
1 200,511 4,474 4,457
2 196,383 4,279 4,245
3 192,439 4,343 4,292
4 188,429 4,142 4,077
5 184,608 4,128 4,047
6 180,798 4,068 3,973
7 177,042 3,980 3,871
8 173,363 4,044 3,918
9 169,618 4,120 3,976
10 165,787 3,872 3,722
11 … … …
Period Balance Cash Flow NPV Discount
Total 200,511 225,705 196,619 1.94%
Period Balance Cash Flow NPV ALLL
Total 200,511 225,705 197,931 1.29%
Period Balance Cash Flow NPV Variance
Total 200,511 225,705 -1,312 -.65%
Aggregate NPV of projected cash flow (effective yield discount
rate vs. fair value discount rate).
Loan Valuation – How
51
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – LIFETIME PROFITABILITY
Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s
Period Balance Principal Interest Payment Prepayment Defaults Estimated Loss Cash Flow NPV
1 200,511 1,228 769 1,996 2,478 422 63 4,474 4,459
2 196,383 1,103 749 1,852 2,427 414 62 4,279 4,249
3 192,439 1,229 738 1,966 2,376 405 61 4,343 4,298
4 188,429 1,097 718 1,815 2,327 397 60 4,142 4,085
5 184,608 1,143 707 1,851 2,277 389 58 4,128 4,057
6 180,798 1,147 693 1,839 2,229 381 57 4,068 3,985
7 177,042 1,125 674 1,799 2,181 373 56 3,980 3,885
8 173,363 1,247 664 1,911 2,133 365 55 4,044 3,934
9 169,618 1,388 646 2,033 2,086 357 54 4,120 3,994
10 165,787 1,197 635 1,832 2,040 349 52 3,872 3,740
11 … … … … … … … … …
Loan Valuation – How
52
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – LIFETIME PROFITABILITY
Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s
Period Balance Cash Flow NPV
1 200,511 4,474 4,459
2 196,383 4,279 4,249
3 192,439 4,343 4,298
4 188,429 4,142 4,085
5 184,608 4,128 4,057
6 180,798 4,068 3,985
7 177,042 3,980 3,885
8 173,363 4,044 3,934
9 169,618 4,120 3,994
10 165,787 3,872 3,740
11 … … …
Period Balance Cash Flow NPV Discount
Total 200,511 225,705 196,619 1.94%
Period Balance Cash Flow NPV ALLL
Total 200,511 225,705 197,931 1.29%
Period Balance Cash Flow NPV +/- bps
Total 200,511 225,705 199,922 -0.29%
Aggregate NPV of projected cash flow (effective yield discount
rate vs. fair value discount rate vs. profitability & cost build-up
discount rate).
Loan Valuation – How
53
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – LIFETIME PROFITABILITY
Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s
Period Balance Cash Flow NPV
1 200,511 4,474 4,459
2 196,383 4,279 4,249
3 192,439 4,343 4,298
4 188,429 4,142 4,085
5 184,608 4,128 4,057
6 180,798 4,068 3,985
7 177,042 3,980 3,885
8 173,363 4,044 3,934
9 169,618 4,120 3,994
10 165,787 3,872 3,740
11 … … …
Period Balance Cash Flow NPV Discount
Total 200,511 225,705 196,619 1.94%
Period Balance Cash Flow NPV ALLL
Total 200,511 225,705 197,931 1.29%
Period Balance Cash Flow NPV +/- bps
Total 200,511 225,705 199,922 -0.29%
Aggregate NPV of projected cash flow (effective yield discount
rate vs. fair value discount rate vs. profitability & cost build-up
discount rate).
CECL - Credit & Finance
54
AGENDA
CECL Paradigm: Governing thought pattern that maximizes success for all stakeholders
» What, When, How to execute
Cross Application: Leverage CECL models and model results for more than journal entries
» Quantify value
• Evaluation: The observed performance of underlying assets can provide meaningful
managerial insight
» Quantify experience
• Summary: The relationship between CECL, valuation, and evaluation
CECL - Credit & Finance
55
AGENDA
CECL Paradigm: Governing thought pattern that maximizes success for all stakeholders
» What, When, How to execute
Cross Application: Leverage CECL models and model results for more than journal entries
» Quantify value
• Evaluation: The observed performance of underlying assets can provide meaningful
managerial insight
» Quantify experience
• Summary: The relationship between CECL, valuation, and evaluation
Loan Evaluation
56
What When How
Loan Evaluation
57
What PD, LGD,
migration,
cumulative loss,
average life, etc.
When How
Loan Evaluation
58
What PD, LGD,
migration,
cumulative loss,
average life, etc.
When Often –
observe changes
in levels and
trends
How
Loan Evaluation
59
What PD, LGD,
migration,
cumulative loss,
average life, etc.
When Often –
observe changes
in levels and
trends
How Proper CECL
models will allow
for a variety of
independent
evaluations
Loan Evaluation – What/How
60
Period Start Date Risk Rating Loss Rate
6/30/2011 4 1.48%
9/30/2011 4 1.09%
12/31/2011 4 .95%
3/31/2012 4 .72%
6/30/2012 4 .67%
9/30/2012 4 .63%
… … …
MIGRATION – 3 YEAR LOSS %
Weighted average 3-year loss rate observations
summarized within Sageworks’ ALLL solution.
0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00%
7
6
5
4
3
2
3-Year Loss Experience
RiskRating
Loan Evaluation
61
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
LossExperience
Duration
2 3 4 5 6 7
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
LossExperience
Duration
2 3 4 5 6 7
Loan Evaluation
62
Loan Evaluation
63
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
LossExperience
Duration
Risk Rating - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Exit
- 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30%
2 0% 0% 93% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10%
3 0% 0% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14%
4 0% 0% 0% 3% 94% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 15%
5 0% 0% 0% 19% 8% 48% 12% 13% 0% 0% 21%
6 0% 0% 0% 11% 16% 17% 37% 20% 0% 0% 24%
7 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 1% 6% 89% 0% 0% 38%
8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%
Loan Evaluation – What/How
64
MIGRATION – ANNUAL CHANGE Summary of loan migration – the percentage of all loans’
ending Risk Rating relative to their beginning Risk Rating
Risk Rating - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Exit
- 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30%
2 0% 0% 93% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10%
3 0% 0% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14%
4 0% 0% 0% 3% 94% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 15%
5 0% 0% 0% 19% 8% 48% 12% 13% 0% 0% 21%
6 0% 0% 0% 11% 16% 17% 37% 20% 0% 0% 24%
7 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 1% 6% 89% 0% 0% 38%
8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%
Loan Evaluation – What/How
65
MIGRATION – ANNUAL CHANGE Summary of loan migration – the percentage of all loans’
ending Risk Rating relative to their beginning Risk Rating
Loan Evaluation – What/How
66
PD/LGD – 3 YEAR
3-year probability of default trend observed within Sageworks’ ALLL solution.
Risk Rating PD x LGD
0 .90%
2 1.52%
3 .61%
4 1.22%
5 1.75%
6 3.58%
7 9.62%
Loan Evaluation – What/How
67
PD/LGD – 3 YEAR
Risk Rating PD x LGD
0 .90%
2 1.52%
3 .61%
4 1.22%
5 1.75%
6 3.58%
7 9.62%
3-year loss given default trend observed within Sageworks’ ALLL
solution.
Loan Evaluation – What/How
68
PD/LGD/DCF/FORECAST
Probability of default expectation based on forecasted current and
future conditions
Aggregate NPV of projected cash flow relative to
book balance/amortized cost basis.
CECL - Credit & Finance
69
AGENDA
CECL Paradigm: Governing thought pattern that maximizes success for all stakeholders
» What, When, How to execute
Valuation: The economic worth of our institutions and underlying assets
» Quantify value
Evaluation: The observed performance of underlying assets can provide meaningful
managerial insight
» Quantify experience
• Summary: The relationship between CECL, valuation, and evaluation
CECL - Credit & Finance
71
CECL – Ensure that your process benefits the organization
CECL - Credit & Finance
72
CECL – Ensure that your process benefits the organization
Valuation – Understand the value of each loan in our portfolio
CECL - Credit & Finance
73
Evaluation – Understand the performance of our loan portfolio
CECL – Ensure that your process benefits the organization
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CECL - The Relationship Between Credit and Finance

  • 1. CECL - Credit & Finance ENSURING YOUR CECL MODEL BENEFITS LENDING, CREDIT, ACCOUNTING AND FINANCE October 19 · 2017
  • 2. Disclaimer 3 This presentation may include statements that constitute “forward-looking statements” relative to publicly available industry data. Forward-looking statements often contain words such as “believe,” “expect,” “plans,” “project,” “target,” “anticipate,” “will,” “should,” “see,” “guidance,” “confident” and similar terms. There can be no assurance that any of the future events discussed will occur as anticipated, if at all, or that actual results on the industry will be as expected. Sageworks is not responsible for the accuracy or validity of this publicly available industry data, or the outcome of the use of this data relative to business or investment decisions made by the recipients of this data. Sageworks disclaims all representations and warranties, express or implied. Risks and uncertainties include risks related to the effect of economic conditions and financial market conditions; fluctuation in commodity prices, interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates. No Sageworks employee is authorized to make recommendations or give advice as to any course of action that should be made as an outcome of this data. The forward-looking statements and data speak only as of the date of this presentation and we undertake no obligation to update or revise this information as of a later date.
  • 4. CECL - Credit & Finance 6 AGENDA • CECL Paradigm: Governing thought pattern that maximizes success for all stakeholders » What, When, How to execute • Cross Application: Leverage CECL models and model results for more than journal entries » Quantify value • Evaluation: The observed performance of underlying assets can provide meaningful managerial insight » Quantify experience • Summary: The relationship between CECL, valuation, and evaluation
  • 5. CECL - Credit & Finance 7 AGENDA • CECL Paradigm: Governing thought pattern that maximizes success for all stakeholders » What, When, How to execute • Cross Application: Leverage CECL models and model results for more than journal entries » Quantify value • Evaluation: The observed performance of underlying assets can provide meaningful managerial insight » Quantify experience • Summary: The relationship between CECL, valuation, and evaluation
  • 7. CECL Paradigm – Why 9 FASB – ASU 2016-13 Example balance sheet (assets) contains long-term instruments in the form of loans and leases. “An entity shall estimate expected credit losses over the contractual term of the financial asset(s)” “When developing an estimate of expected credit losses on financial asset(s), an entity shall consider available information relevant to assessing the collectability of cash flows” • Link to FASB
  • 8. CECL Paradigm – Why 10 KEY QUESTIONS Flexibility, methodology comparisons, volatility, and cross-application are key considerations for implementation. Will the first attempt be the final model? Will the industry evolve in it’s interpretation and application? Will other stakeholders within the institution leverage the analytical outputs for managerial purposes?
  • 10. CECL Paradigm 12 What specific objectives need to be accomplished When How
  • 11. CECL Paradigm 13 What specific objectives need to be accomplished When does each objective need to be accomplished How
  • 12. CECL Paradigm 14 What specific objectives need to be accomplished When does each objective need to be accomplished How will each objective be accomplished
  • 13. CECL Paradigm – What 15 Data – Adequacy, Accuracy, Availability
  • 14. CECL Paradigm – What 16 Data – Adequacy, Accuracy, Availability Historical Performance – Life, Loss, Methodology
  • 15. CECL Paradigm – What 17 Data – Adequacy, Accuracy, Availability Historical Performance – Life, Loss, Methodology Forecasting – Impact to Life, Loss, and Methodology
  • 16. CECL Paradigm – What/When 18 Data – Adequacy, Accuracy, Availability/LATE Historical Performance – Life, Loss, Methodology/NOW/2018 Forecasting – Impact to Life, Loss, and Methodology/2019/20
  • 17. 19 2018 Q1 Q2 Q4 2019 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 2021 2018 • Data assurance is complete/remediation started • Methodology/Segmentation comparisons • Forecasting exploration • Formal/documented parallel calculations • Disclosure preparation • Processes, procedures, and control documentation 2019 • SEC filers go-live/record journal entries • Non-SEC filers common size comparisons with analogous SEC filers 2020 CECL Paradigm – What/When
  • 18. 20 2018 Q1 Q2 Q4 2019 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 2021 2018 • Data assurance is complete/remediation started • Methodology/Segmentation comparisons • Forecasting exploration • Formal/documented parallel calculations • Disclosure preparation • Processes, procedures, and control documentation 2019 • SEC filers go-live/record journal entries • Non-SEC filers common size comparisons with analogous SEC filers 2020 CECL Paradigm – What/When
  • 19. 21 2018 Q1 Q2 Q4 2019 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 2021 2018 • Data assurance is complete/remediation started • Methodology/Segmentation comparisons • Forecasting exploration • Formal/documented parallel calculations • Disclosure preparation • Processes, procedures, and control documentation 2019 • SEC filers go-live/record journal entries • Non-SEC filers common size comparisons with analogous SEC filers 2020 CECL Paradigm – What/When
  • 20. 22 2018 Q1 Q2 Q4 2019 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 2021 2018 • Data assurance is complete/remediation started • Methodology/Segmentation comparisons • Forecasting exploration • Formal/documented parallel calculations • Disclosure preparation • Processes, procedures, and control documentation 2019 • SEC filers go-live/record journal entries • Non-SEC filers common size comparisons with analogous SEC filers 2020 CECL Paradigm – What/When
  • 22. 24 CECL Transition - Example Continued >>
  • 23. 25 CECL Transition - Example << Continued
  • 24. CECL - Credit & Finance 26 AGENDA CECL Paradigm: Governing thought pattern that maximizes success for all stakeholders » What, When, How to execute • Cross Application: Leverage CECL models and model results for more than journal entries » Quantify value • Evaluation: The observed performance of underlying assets can provide meaningful managerial insight » Quantify experience • Summary: The relationship between CECL, valuation, and evaluation
  • 25. CECL - Credit & Finance 27 AGENDA CECL Paradigm: Governing thought pattern that maximizes success for all stakeholders » What, When, How to execute • Cross Application: Leverage CECL models and model results for more than journal entries » Quantify value • Evaluation: The observed performance of underlying assets can provide meaningful managerial insight » Quantify experience • Summary: The relationship between CECL, valuation, and evaluation
  • 26. Loan Valuation – Why 28 FASB – DECEMBER 20, 2012 Example balance sheet (assets) contains long-term instruments in the form of loans and leases. “The CECL model uses a single expected credit loss measurement objective for the allowance for credit loss. Under this model, the allowance for expected credit losses would reflect management’s current estimate of the contractual cash flows that the company does not expect to collect, based on its assessment of credit risk as of the reporting date.” • Link to FASB
  • 27. CECL - Credit & Finance 29 WHO OWNS THE PROCESS NOW?
  • 28. CECL - Credit & Finance 30 WHO WILL OWN THE NEW PROCESS?
  • 29. CECL - Credit & Finance 31 CROSS-FUNCTIONAL OPPORTUNITIES • Credit Risk Evaluation: Leverage risk-level history for underwriting/pricing considerations » Are better rated credits experiencing better default and loss performance • Risk Rating Testing: Do risk ratings correlate to risk and are risk ratings being updated » Do loans move to loss from pass quickly and are loans migrating or stagnant • ALM: Prepayment speed and/or life assumption confirmation and/or testing » Ensure symmetry or explain asymmetry • Stress Testing: Some CECL methodologies align with stress testing exercises » What happens to the loan portfolio under defined economic conditions • Fair Value: Some CECL methodologies align with fair value exercises
  • 31. Loan Valuation/Fair Value/Exit Price 33 What When How
  • 32. Loan Valuation/Fair Value/Exit Price 34 What are the purposes of loan valuations When How
  • 33. Loan Valuation/Fair Value/Exit Price 35 What are the purposes of loan valuations When are loan valuations required How
  • 34. Loan Valuation/Fair Value/Exit Price 36 What are the purposes of loan valuations When are loan valuations required How are loan valuations executed
  • 35. Loan Valuation – What is the Purpose 37 Classification and Measurement – ASU 2016-1 (PBE/SEC)
  • 36. Loan Valuation – What is the Purpose 38 Classification and Measurement – ASU 2016-1 (PBE/SEC) Fair Value – How market participants value the loan portfolio
  • 37. Loan Valuation – What is the Purpose 39 Profitability – Lifetime profitability not next year’s net income Classification and Measurement – ASU 2016-1 (PBE/SEC) Fair Value – How market participants value the loan portfolio
  • 38. Loan Valuation – When 40 Profitability – Whenever earnings are of interest Classification and Measurement – Q1 2018 PBE and SEC filers Fair Value – “As of” an acquisition, merger or asset purchase
  • 39. Period Balance Principal Interest Payment Prepayment Defaults Estimated Loss Cash Flow NPV 1 200,511 1,228 769 1,996 2,478 422 63 4,474 4,457 2 196,383 1,103 749 1,852 2,427 414 62 4,279 4,246 3 192,439 1,229 738 1,966 2,376 405 61 4,343 4,293 4 188,429 1,097 718 1,815 2,327 397 60 4,142 4,078 5 184,608 1,143 707 1,851 2,277 389 58 4,128 4,048 6 180,798 1,147 693 1,839 2,229 381 57 4,068 3,974 7 177,042 1,125 674 1,799 2,181 373 56 3,980 3,873 8 173,363 1,247 664 1,911 2,133 365 55 4,044 3,920 9 169,618 1,388 646 2,033 2,086 357 54 4,120 3,979 10 165,787 1,197 635 1,832 2,040 349 52 3,872 3,724 11 … … … … … … … … … Loan Valuation – How 41 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – CECL Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s
  • 40. Period Balance Principal Interest Payment Prepayment Defaults Estimated Loss Cash Flow NPV 1 200,511 1,228 769 1,996 2,478 422 63 4,474 4,457 2 196,383 1,103 749 1,852 2,427 414 62 4,279 4,246 3 192,439 1,229 738 1,966 2,376 405 61 4,343 4,293 4 188,429 1,097 718 1,815 2,327 397 60 4,142 4,078 5 184,608 1,143 707 1,851 2,277 389 58 4,128 4,048 6 180,798 1,147 693 1,839 2,229 381 57 4,068 3,974 7 177,042 1,125 674 1,799 2,181 373 56 3,980 3,873 8 173,363 1,247 664 1,911 2,133 365 55 4,044 3,920 9 169,618 1,388 646 2,033 2,086 357 54 4,120 3,979 10 165,787 1,197 635 1,832 2,040 349 52 3,872 3,724 11 … … … … … … … … … Loan Valuation – How 42 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – CECL Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s
  • 41. Period Balance Principal Interest Payment Prepayment Defaults Estimated Loss Cash Flow NPV 1 200,511 1,228 769 1,996 2,478 422 63 4,474 4,457 2 196,383 1,103 749 1,852 2,427 414 62 4,279 4,246 3 192,439 1,229 738 1,966 2,376 405 61 4,343 4,293 4 188,429 1,097 718 1,815 2,327 397 60 4,142 4,078 5 184,608 1,143 707 1,851 2,277 389 58 4,128 4,048 6 180,798 1,147 693 1,839 2,229 381 57 4,068 3,974 7 177,042 1,125 674 1,799 2,181 373 56 3,980 3,873 8 173,363 1,247 664 1,911 2,133 365 55 4,044 3,920 9 169,618 1,388 646 2,033 2,086 357 54 4,120 3,979 10 165,787 1,197 635 1,832 2,040 349 52 3,872 3,724 11 … … … … … … … … … Loan Valuation – How 43 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – CECL Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s
  • 42. Period Balance Principal Interest Payment Prepayment Defaults Estimated Loss Cash Flow NPV 1 200,511 1,228 769 1,996 2,478 422 63 4,474 4,457 2 196,383 1,103 749 1,852 2,427 414 62 4,279 4,246 3 192,439 1,229 738 1,966 2,376 405 61 4,343 4,293 4 188,429 1,097 718 1,815 2,327 397 60 4,142 4,078 5 184,608 1,143 707 1,851 2,277 389 58 4,128 4,048 6 180,798 1,147 693 1,839 2,229 381 57 4,068 3,974 7 177,042 1,125 674 1,799 2,181 373 56 3,980 3,873 8 173,363 1,247 664 1,911 2,133 365 55 4,044 3,920 9 169,618 1,388 646 2,033 2,086 357 54 4,120 3,979 10 165,787 1,197 635 1,832 2,040 349 52 3,872 3,724 11 … … … … … … … … … Loan Valuation – How 44 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – CECL Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s
  • 43. Period Balance Principal Interest Payment Prepayment Defaults Estimated Loss Cash Flow NPV 1 200,511 1,228 769 1,996 2,478 422 63 4,474 4,457 2 196,383 1,103 749 1,852 2,427 414 62 4,279 4,246 3 192,439 1,229 738 1,966 2,376 405 61 4,343 4,293 4 188,429 1,097 718 1,815 2,327 397 60 4,142 4,078 5 184,608 1,143 707 1,851 2,277 389 58 4,128 4,048 6 180,798 1,147 693 1,839 2,229 381 57 4,068 3,974 7 177,042 1,125 674 1,799 2,181 373 56 3,980 3,873 8 173,363 1,247 664 1,911 2,133 365 55 4,044 3,920 9 169,618 1,388 646 2,033 2,086 357 54 4,120 3,979 10 165,787 1,197 635 1,832 2,040 349 52 3,872 3,724 11 … … … … … … … … … Loan Valuation – How 45 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – CECL Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s
  • 44. Loan Valuation – How 46 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – CECL Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s Period Balance Cash Flow NPV 1 200,511 4,474 4,457 2 196,383 4,279 4,246 3 192,439 4,343 4,293 4 188,429 4,142 4,078 5 184,608 4,128 4,048 6 180,798 4,068 3,974 7 177,042 3,980 3,873 8 173,363 4,044 3,920 9 169,618 4,120 3,979 10 165,787 3,872 3,724 11 … … … Aggregate NPV of projected cash flow (effective yield discount rate) relative to book balance/amortized cost basis.
  • 45. Loan Valuation – How 47 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – CECL Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s Period Balance Cash Flow NPV 1 200,511 4,474 4,457 2 196,383 4,279 4,246 3 192,439 4,343 4,293 4 188,429 4,142 4,078 5 184,608 4,128 4,048 6 180,798 4,068 3,974 7 177,042 3,980 3,873 8 173,363 4,044 3,920 9 169,618 4,120 3,979 10 165,787 3,872 3,724 11 … … … Aggregate NPV of projected cash flow (effective yield discount rate) relative to book balance/amortized cost basis.
  • 46. Loan Valuation – How 48 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – VALUATION “LEVEL 3” INPUTS Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s Period Balance Principal Interest Payment Prepayment Defaults Estimated Loss Cash Flow NPV 1 200,511 1,228 769 1,996 2,478 422 63 4,474 4,457 2 196,383 1,103 749 1,852 2,427 414 62 4,279 4,245 3 192,439 1,229 738 1,966 2,376 405 61 4,343 4,292 4 188,429 1,097 718 1,815 2,327 397 60 4,142 4,077 5 184,608 1,143 707 1,851 2,277 389 58 4,128 4,047 6 180,798 1,147 693 1,839 2,229 381 57 4,068 3,973 7 177,042 1,125 674 1,799 2,181 373 56 3,980 3,871 8 173,363 1,247 664 1,911 2,133 365 55 4,044 3,918 9 169,618 1,388 646 2,033 2,086 357 54 4,120 3,976 10 165,787 1,197 635 1,832 2,040 349 52 3,872 3,722 11 … … … … … … … … …
  • 47. Loan Valuation – How 49 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – VALUATION “LEVEL 3” INPUTS Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s Period Balance Cash Flow NPV 1 200,511 4,474 4,457 2 196,383 4,279 4,245 3 192,439 4,343 4,292 4 188,429 4,142 4,077 5 184,608 4,128 4,047 6 180,798 4,068 3,973 7 177,042 3,980 3,871 8 173,363 4,044 3,918 9 169,618 4,120 3,976 10 165,787 3,872 3,722 11 … … … Aggregate NPV of projected cash flow (effective yield discount rate vs. fair value discount rate). Period Balance Cash Flow NPV Discount Total 200,511 225,705 196,619 1.94% Period Balance Cash Flow NPV ALLL Total 200,511 225,705 197,931 1.29% Period Balance Cash Flow NPV Variance Total 200,511 225,705 -1,312 -.65%
  • 48. Loan Valuation – How 50 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – VALUATION “LEVEL 3” INPUTS Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s Period Balance Cash Flow NPV 1 200,511 4,474 4,457 2 196,383 4,279 4,245 3 192,439 4,343 4,292 4 188,429 4,142 4,077 5 184,608 4,128 4,047 6 180,798 4,068 3,973 7 177,042 3,980 3,871 8 173,363 4,044 3,918 9 169,618 4,120 3,976 10 165,787 3,872 3,722 11 … … … Period Balance Cash Flow NPV Discount Total 200,511 225,705 196,619 1.94% Period Balance Cash Flow NPV ALLL Total 200,511 225,705 197,931 1.29% Period Balance Cash Flow NPV Variance Total 200,511 225,705 -1,312 -.65% Aggregate NPV of projected cash flow (effective yield discount rate vs. fair value discount rate).
  • 49. Loan Valuation – How 51 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – LIFETIME PROFITABILITY Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s Period Balance Principal Interest Payment Prepayment Defaults Estimated Loss Cash Flow NPV 1 200,511 1,228 769 1,996 2,478 422 63 4,474 4,459 2 196,383 1,103 749 1,852 2,427 414 62 4,279 4,249 3 192,439 1,229 738 1,966 2,376 405 61 4,343 4,298 4 188,429 1,097 718 1,815 2,327 397 60 4,142 4,085 5 184,608 1,143 707 1,851 2,277 389 58 4,128 4,057 6 180,798 1,147 693 1,839 2,229 381 57 4,068 3,985 7 177,042 1,125 674 1,799 2,181 373 56 3,980 3,885 8 173,363 1,247 664 1,911 2,133 365 55 4,044 3,934 9 169,618 1,388 646 2,033 2,086 357 54 4,120 3,994 10 165,787 1,197 635 1,832 2,040 349 52 3,872 3,740 11 … … … … … … … … …
  • 50. Loan Valuation – How 52 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – LIFETIME PROFITABILITY Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s Period Balance Cash Flow NPV 1 200,511 4,474 4,459 2 196,383 4,279 4,249 3 192,439 4,343 4,298 4 188,429 4,142 4,085 5 184,608 4,128 4,057 6 180,798 4,068 3,985 7 177,042 3,980 3,885 8 173,363 4,044 3,934 9 169,618 4,120 3,994 10 165,787 3,872 3,740 11 … … … Period Balance Cash Flow NPV Discount Total 200,511 225,705 196,619 1.94% Period Balance Cash Flow NPV ALLL Total 200,511 225,705 197,931 1.29% Period Balance Cash Flow NPV +/- bps Total 200,511 225,705 199,922 -0.29% Aggregate NPV of projected cash flow (effective yield discount rate vs. fair value discount rate vs. profitability & cost build-up discount rate).
  • 51. Loan Valuation – How 53 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW – LIFETIME PROFITABILITY Aggregated loan-level - presented in 000’s Period Balance Cash Flow NPV 1 200,511 4,474 4,459 2 196,383 4,279 4,249 3 192,439 4,343 4,298 4 188,429 4,142 4,085 5 184,608 4,128 4,057 6 180,798 4,068 3,985 7 177,042 3,980 3,885 8 173,363 4,044 3,934 9 169,618 4,120 3,994 10 165,787 3,872 3,740 11 … … … Period Balance Cash Flow NPV Discount Total 200,511 225,705 196,619 1.94% Period Balance Cash Flow NPV ALLL Total 200,511 225,705 197,931 1.29% Period Balance Cash Flow NPV +/- bps Total 200,511 225,705 199,922 -0.29% Aggregate NPV of projected cash flow (effective yield discount rate vs. fair value discount rate vs. profitability & cost build-up discount rate).
  • 52. CECL - Credit & Finance 54 AGENDA CECL Paradigm: Governing thought pattern that maximizes success for all stakeholders » What, When, How to execute Cross Application: Leverage CECL models and model results for more than journal entries » Quantify value • Evaluation: The observed performance of underlying assets can provide meaningful managerial insight » Quantify experience • Summary: The relationship between CECL, valuation, and evaluation
  • 53. CECL - Credit & Finance 55 AGENDA CECL Paradigm: Governing thought pattern that maximizes success for all stakeholders » What, When, How to execute Cross Application: Leverage CECL models and model results for more than journal entries » Quantify value • Evaluation: The observed performance of underlying assets can provide meaningful managerial insight » Quantify experience • Summary: The relationship between CECL, valuation, and evaluation
  • 55. Loan Evaluation 57 What PD, LGD, migration, cumulative loss, average life, etc. When How
  • 56. Loan Evaluation 58 What PD, LGD, migration, cumulative loss, average life, etc. When Often – observe changes in levels and trends How
  • 57. Loan Evaluation 59 What PD, LGD, migration, cumulative loss, average life, etc. When Often – observe changes in levels and trends How Proper CECL models will allow for a variety of independent evaluations
  • 58. Loan Evaluation – What/How 60 Period Start Date Risk Rating Loss Rate 6/30/2011 4 1.48% 9/30/2011 4 1.09% 12/31/2011 4 .95% 3/31/2012 4 .72% 6/30/2012 4 .67% 9/30/2012 4 .63% … … … MIGRATION – 3 YEAR LOSS % Weighted average 3-year loss rate observations summarized within Sageworks’ ALLL solution.
  • 59. 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 7 6 5 4 3 2 3-Year Loss Experience RiskRating Loan Evaluation 61 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 LossExperience Duration 2 3 4 5 6 7
  • 60. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 LossExperience Duration 2 3 4 5 6 7 Loan Evaluation 62
  • 61. Loan Evaluation 63 -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 LossExperience Duration
  • 62. Risk Rating - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Exit - 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 2 0% 0% 93% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 3 0% 0% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% 4 0% 0% 0% 3% 94% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 15% 5 0% 0% 0% 19% 8% 48% 12% 13% 0% 0% 21% 6 0% 0% 0% 11% 16% 17% 37% 20% 0% 0% 24% 7 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 1% 6% 89% 0% 0% 38% 8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% Loan Evaluation – What/How 64 MIGRATION – ANNUAL CHANGE Summary of loan migration – the percentage of all loans’ ending Risk Rating relative to their beginning Risk Rating
  • 63. Risk Rating - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Exit - 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 2 0% 0% 93% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 3 0% 0% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% 4 0% 0% 0% 3% 94% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 15% 5 0% 0% 0% 19% 8% 48% 12% 13% 0% 0% 21% 6 0% 0% 0% 11% 16% 17% 37% 20% 0% 0% 24% 7 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 1% 6% 89% 0% 0% 38% 8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% Loan Evaluation – What/How 65 MIGRATION – ANNUAL CHANGE Summary of loan migration – the percentage of all loans’ ending Risk Rating relative to their beginning Risk Rating
  • 64. Loan Evaluation – What/How 66 PD/LGD – 3 YEAR 3-year probability of default trend observed within Sageworks’ ALLL solution. Risk Rating PD x LGD 0 .90% 2 1.52% 3 .61% 4 1.22% 5 1.75% 6 3.58% 7 9.62%
  • 65. Loan Evaluation – What/How 67 PD/LGD – 3 YEAR Risk Rating PD x LGD 0 .90% 2 1.52% 3 .61% 4 1.22% 5 1.75% 6 3.58% 7 9.62% 3-year loss given default trend observed within Sageworks’ ALLL solution.
  • 66. Loan Evaluation – What/How 68 PD/LGD/DCF/FORECAST Probability of default expectation based on forecasted current and future conditions Aggregate NPV of projected cash flow relative to book balance/amortized cost basis.
  • 67. CECL - Credit & Finance 69 AGENDA CECL Paradigm: Governing thought pattern that maximizes success for all stakeholders » What, When, How to execute Valuation: The economic worth of our institutions and underlying assets » Quantify value Evaluation: The observed performance of underlying assets can provide meaningful managerial insight » Quantify experience • Summary: The relationship between CECL, valuation, and evaluation
  • 68. CECL - Credit & Finance 71 CECL – Ensure that your process benefits the organization
  • 69. CECL - Credit & Finance 72 CECL – Ensure that your process benefits the organization Valuation – Understand the value of each loan in our portfolio
  • 70. CECL - Credit & Finance 73 Evaluation – Understand the performance of our loan portfolio CECL – Ensure that your process benefits the organization Valuation – Understand the value of each loan in our portfolio