Sgcp13emery

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Sgcp13emery

  1. 1. Dominic Emery, Chief Development Office, BPAlternative Energy5 June 2013Cambridge5th Annual Smart Grids & Cleanpower 2013Conferencewww.cir-strategy.com/events/cleanpower
  2. 2. © BP 20130369121990 2010 2030OECDnon-OECD024681990 2010 2030OECDNon-OECD02550751001990 2010 2030OECDNon-OECDPopulation, income and energy growthEnergy Outlook 2030BillionPopulation GDPTrillion $2011 PPP Billion toePrimary energy
  3. 3. © BP 2013Industrialisation drives energy growthOECDNon-OECDBillion toeEnergy Outlook 203003691215181990 2010 2030OECDNon-OECD03691215181990 2010 2030OtherPowergenerationTransportBy primary use By fuelBy regionOilCoalGasBillion toe Billion toeIndustry03691215181990 2010 2030HydroNuclearRenew.*OilCoalGas*Includes biofuels
  4. 4. © BP 2013The power sector leads primary energy growthGrowth by sector and fuel,2011-2030Growth by sector and region,2011-2030-10123TransportIndustryOtherPowerHydroNuclearRenew.ElectricityGasBiofuelsOilCoalFinal energy use Inputs to powerBillion toe-10123TransportIndustryOtherPowerRoWMiddle EastChina &IndiaOECDFinal energy use Inputs to powerBillion toeEnergy Outlook 2030
  5. 5. © BP 2013Non-fossil fuels0.00.51.01.52.01990 2000 2010 2020 2030RenewablesBiofuelsHydroNuclearBillion toeRenewables in powerBiofuelsOECD0.00.51.01.52.01990 2000 2010 2020 2030Non-OECDBillion toeEnergy Outlook 2030
  6. 6. © BP 2013Growth of renewables in powerOECDNon-OECD0%5%10%15%20%2000 2010 2020 2030Nuclear1970-2000Renewables2000-20301970 1980 1990 20000%3%6%9%12%15%0%5%10%15%20%25%OECDEuropeOtherOECDNon-OECDGrowth (RHS)Share 2011Share 2030Renewable power% p.a.% shareShare of power generationEnergy Outlook 2030Growth 2011-30, and share of power
  7. 7. © BP 2013Conclusion0%1%2%3%4%PopulationIncomepercapitaEconomicgrowthEfficiencygainsNew supply% p.a.! Economic growth needsenergy! Competition and innovationare the key to meeting thisneed−  energy efficiency−  new supplies! Energy security and climatechange remain challengesEnergy Outlook 2030

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