As mobile devices become the user interface to the world we live in, they have started to drive the evolution of a wide range of industries. While this may look like land grab, in fact it is the scale and competitiveness of the mobile industry that is driving innovation that, in turn, benefits other industries and accelerates their rate of evolution. In this seminar, we’ll look at how the competitive behaviour in the mobile industry is both threatening and creating opportunities for innovation in other consumer electronics markets.

1. How the mobile industry is influencing
the broader consumer market
Innovation Day 2012
Tim Fowler
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2. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Consumer electronics covers a very broad spectrum of products
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3. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Mobile phones have for many years been the highest volume consumer
electronics products in the world
[Source: Guardian Newspaper]
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4. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Fifteen years ago, the first instant picture was sent by a “camera phone”
Shipments of digital still cameras by Japanese vendors
140
Million Units
Built-in Lens Cameras F'cast
120
Interchangeable Lens Cameras
100
80
60
40
20
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
June 11th 1997
Interchangeable lens cam eras included in built-in lens cam eras until 2003
Philippe Kahn takes picture of Sophie
[ so ur c e : C I P A ]
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5. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Smartphones and tablets have accelerated the rate use case evolution
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6. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Smartphones and tablets have accelerated the rate use case evolution
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7. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Consumer product convergence
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8. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Consumer product convergence – Video
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9. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Consumer product convergence – Video, Audio
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10. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Consumer product convergence – Video, Audio, Gaming
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11. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Consumer product convergence – Video, Audio, Gaming and Navigation
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12. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Consumer product convergence – Video, Audio, Gaming and Navigation
Wireless connectivity
is already pervasive
Enabling products
to just work together
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13. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Video is a good example where use case evolution drives convergence
The BBC already offers multi-device viewing
– Broadcast content on TV
– Interactive content on mobile devices
– Experiments with synchronisation underway
(alternate languages, voiceover etc.).
Only the start…
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14. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
New mobile platforms have raised the bar in terms of users’
expectations regarding experience
These platforms are an attractive starting point for many new
consumer product developments
More cost sensitive products are “connecting” with smartphones
and tablets to form “smarter systems”
And in some cases both are happening (Smart TVs).
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15. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Increasing mobile product sophistication has driven evolution of new platforms
As happened in PC market 20 years ago
Supply side for consumer electronics products has disaggregated
– From: highly vertically integrated players (Matsushita, Sony, Philips)
– To: platform, product and key component suppliers (Intel, Microsoft, Google,
ARM, Qualcomm etc.)
– Who rely on standards to make integration work
This is not true of Apple who, through policy and scale, remain largely vertically
structured
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16. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Increasing mobile product sophistication has driven evolution of new platforms
As happened in PC market 20 years ago
Breadth of products based upon platforms is increasing
Moving from mobile phones / laptops …
To many consumer devices
Platforms provide base technology that products can be built from
– Platform evolution indicates trends in capability of future products
Component Product
Component Platform Product
Component Product
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17. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Key technology component players
1. Processors
2. OS
3. Connectivity
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18. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Key technology components and players
1. Processors
2. OS
3. Connectivity
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19. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Key technology components and players
1. Processors
2. OS
3. Connectivity
Source: Asymco.com
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20. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Key technology components and players
1. Processors
2. OS
3. Connectivity
Intel is releasing their Windows tablet variant of Medfield today code named
[SemiAccurate, Sep 2012]
Clover Trail… Intel refused to show the chip in their briefing, afterwards, and in a Twilight Zone turn of
events, would not even hand out a press picture to print. Really? Is this what the company has sunk to?
Are they that afraid the financial press will realize they can’t compete with ARM on
anything much less die area?
… Microsoft has yet to approve any Windows 8 tablet using the Intel Clover Trail microprocessor
which is Intel's x86 processor for Windows 8 tablets, while tablets using Windows for ARM
microprocessors (Windows RT) are at a more advanced stage of development… [Electronic Times, Oct 2012]
Source: Asymco.com
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21. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Key technology components and players
1. Processors
2. OS
3. Connectivity
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22. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Key technology components and players
Internet data services view
1. Processors
2. OS
3. Connectivity
Source: Quantcast
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23. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Key technology components and players
Internet data services view
1. Processors
2. OS
3. Connectivity
iPhon
e Lau
n ch
Source: Quantcast
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24. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Key technology components and players
Internet data services view
1. Processors
2. OS
3. Connectivity
nch
Lau
id
dro
iPhon
An
e Lau
n ch
Source: Quantcast
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25. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Key technology components and players
Internet services usage view
1. Processors
Mobile/Tablet Top Operating System Share Trend (by network traffic/web use)
2. OS 70.00%
3. Connectivity 60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
Share
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12
iOS Android Java ME BlackBerry Symbian Other
Source: Net Applications
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26. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Key technology components and players
Mobile phone share by unit shipments view
1. Processors
2. OS
3. Connectivity
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27. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Key technology components and players
Mobile phone share by unit shipments view
1. Processors
2. OS
3. Connectivity
Samsung passed Nokia to top Market share earlier this year
If all iPhones shipped by end 2011 were still in use at that time
they would have represented just 3.5% of all phones in use
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28. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Key technology components and players
1. Processors
2. OS
3. Connectivity
– Hardware
– Stacks
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29. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Standard wireless technologies are essential to enable inter-working
Difficult to predict how innovation will affect market share for any one platform
– Five years ago, few predicted Nokia’s market share collapse
You can only use already adopted connectivity standards
– WiFi
– Bluetooth (Standard and LE, or Bluetooth, Bluetooth Smart and Bluetooth Smart Ready)
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30. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Standard wireless technologies have very long cycles from concept to adoption
BLE
2001 – Nokia research identify need for lower power link
2006 – Nokia publicly announce WiBree
2007 – WiBree absorbed into Bluetooth to become BLE standard
2011 – Apple launch first BLE enabled Smartphone
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31. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Standard wireless technologies have very long cycles from concept to adoption
NFC
200? – Philips and Sony create NFC specification from RFID
2003 – NFC Specification adopted by ISO
2004 – NFC Forum formed
2006 – Nokia 6131 first NFC mobile (trials)
2009 – First NFC Smartphone – simple use case
2011 – Blackberry launch first NFC Smartphone with MasterCard functionality
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32. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Standard wireless technologies have very long cycles from concept to adoption
(if adopted at all)
UWB
1901 – Marconi’s first wireless transmissions are UWB transmissions
2001 – General industry interest in new applications for UWB short range systems
2002 – FCC approve UWB for commercial use (DS-UWB front runner)
2004 – WiMedia Alliance promotes OFDM based alternative
2005 – UWB comes under the wing of Bluetooth
2006 – Motorola and Freescale (DS-UWB) quit UWB activities
2012 – UWB only used in niche products (no phones have UWB today)
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33. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Sophistication of the solutions leads to platform development and
supply.
The motivation of the mobile platform vendors significantly
affects the adoption cycles for technology that they offer
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34. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Operating systems determine what users can do with their devices
e.g. Google and Android
Google are a services company
Motivation driven by adoption of their services
– Not adoption of other products around them
– One example: their accessory approach:
– Android product assumed it will connect to a PC
– Therefore, Android accessories have to look like a PC
Android is not one OS, but is a plethora of versions…
– No automatic upgrade imposed
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35. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Operating systems determine what users can do with their devices
e.g. Google and Android
Launched 30 months ago
Launched 20 months ago
Launched 12 months ago
Launched 4 months ago
Source: Google
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36. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Operating systems determine what users can do with their devices
e.g. Google and Android - Compare to Apple, 14 days after iOS 5.1 launch
Source: macrumors.com
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37. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Operating systems determine what users can do with their devices
e.g. Google and Android
By way of an example: Android adoption of BLE has been slow
– Google chose not to implement it (yet)
– Platform vendors didn’t add it
– Some product vendors tried, failed and dropped it
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38. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Operating systems determine what users can do with their devices
e.g. Apple
Apple have a vertically integrated approach
– If they decide to implement something, they can
– However, if they decide not to, then it is blocked
BLE has been adopted by Apple
NFC has not been adopted by Apple
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39. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Platform vendors differentiate through either higher performance / experience or
lower development and product costs
Western platform vendors target high-end performance – western user tastes
Emerging platform vendors targeting low cost
– Still use Android Gingerbread (see Hwawei Blaze)
– Large Asian, African and Latin American markets make this segment large
Many analysts predict strong growth of low-end smartphones in western markets
– as “lowest common denominator” devices from other geographies improve
– and as price differential between highest and lowest price tier smartphones
widen beyond obvious benefits (as happened in PC market)
– If true, this will lead to a growing proportion of smartphones having only “lowest
common denominator” capabilities
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40. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Many products are becoming wireless accessories, where smartphones become
an extended, even remote, user interface
We have seen growth in the use of
smartphones as the user interface and
processor “host” for a whole range of new
applications
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41. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
I started this talk at the emergence of the Camera Phone, but today we see…
Sophisticated software adding new panorama capabilities to one camera phone
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42. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
I started this talk at the emergence of the Camera Phone, but today we see…
And… cameras built from Android platforms
– Include connectivity for sharing
– And App’s specific to pictures
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43. How the mobile industry is influencing the broader consumer market
Hardware, Operating Systems and Connectivity of Mobile platforms will influence
many new use cases for consumer products
It’s not that phones and tablets will replace other consumer goods…
But they will influence:
1. Expectations of users
2. Use cases
3. Building blocks
4. Connectivity
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44. Contact details:
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