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DRAFT
00Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist0
The Labor Market Situation
July 8, 2013
Dr. Jennifer Hunt
Chief Economist
US Department of Labor
Office of the Chief Economist
DRAFT
11Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist1
Steady job growth since February 2010
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Program
Over-the-month change, in thousands
• June: 202
• May: 207
• April: 188
12-month change, in thousands
• June 2012 to June 2013: 2,357
DRAFT
22Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist2
Steady unemployment decline since end 2009
DRAFT
33Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist3
Leisure & Hospitality led job growth this month
DRAFT
44Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist4
Since the end of the recession, many industries have
not recovered their employment losses
DRAFT
55Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist5
Long-term unemployed share falling
DRAFT
66Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist6
Labor force participation has been
falling, even among adults age 25 to 54
DRAFT
77Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist7
Problem is not layoffs, but low hiring rate
DRAFT
88Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist8
Ratio of unemployed to job openings has fallen,
but remains above pre-recession levels
DRAFT
99Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist9
We are experiencing an “L” shaped recovery;
CBO estimates we won’t return to potential until 2018
DRAFT
1010Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist10
Graduation rates have continued to increase
Source: Murnane, Richard J. “U.S. High School Graduation Rates: Patterns and Explanations”
NBER Working Paper 18701. January 2013
Graduation rates by birth year
DRAFT
1111Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist11
Student test scores are rising
Source: Murnane, Richard J. “U.S. High School Graduation Rates: Patterns and Explanations”
NBER Working Paper 18701. January 2013
NAEP Long-Term Trend Scores for 13-Year-Olds Scoring in the 25th Percentile
in Mathematics and Reading for White, Hispanic, and Black Students
DRAFT
1212Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist12
Thank you!

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Business forward 130708v1