The US labor market saw decent growth in November despite the government shutdown and debt ceiling issues earlier in the fall. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 196,000 in November, unemployment dropped to 7.0%, and revisions showed stronger growth over the past few months. While labor force participation only partially rebounded, employment and unemployment rates returned to pre-shutdown levels. The report suggests the economy had more momentum than previously believed in the third quarter. Extending unemployment benefits would help millions of families and support continued economic growth.

1. 12/09/2013
DRAFT
The Labor Market Situation
December 9, 2013
Dr. Jennifer Hunt
Chief Economist
US Department of Labor
0 Filename/RPS Number
Office of the Chief Economist 0
DRAFT
Payroll survey: good November; upward revisions
1-month change, in thousands
• November
196
• October
214
• September
168
12-month change, in thousands
• November 2012 to 2013: 2,315
• Average:
193
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Office of the Chief Economist 1
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2. 12/09/2013
DRAFT
Employment growth by super-sector
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Office of the Chief Economist 2
DRAFT
Above average report
 Unsure what to expect, due to shutdown/debt ceiling, but…
– Unlike last month’s report, the two surveys went in the same direction
– Better than average job growth and a drop in the rate
– Broad-based industry growth
– From September to November employment rate didn’t change
 The economy had more momentum than we thought in September
– 3rd quarter GDP growth was revised up .8 percentage points to 3.6%
 So employment growth decent despite shutdown/debt ceiling
– Could have been really good employment growth without shutdown, debt ceiling, and
political uncertainty in general
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Office of the Chief Economist 3
2

3. 12/09/2013
DRAFT
Unemployment rate returned to pre-shutdown
November 2013:
October 2013:
September 2013:
November 2012:
7.0 %
7.3 %
7.2 %
7.8 %
Office of the Chief Economist 4
4 Filename/RPS Number
DRAFT
Employment also rebounded
November 2013:
October 2013:
September 2013:
November 2012:
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58.6 %
58.3 %
58.6 %
58.7 %
Office of the Chief Economist 5
3

4. 12/09/2013
DRAFT
Labor force participation only partially rebounded
November 2013:
October 2013:
September 2013:
November 2012:
63.0 %
62.8 %
63.2 %
63.6 %
Office of the Chief Economist 6
6 Filename/RPS Number
DRAFT
Long-term unemployed remains over 4 million
November 2013:
October 2013:
September 2013:
November 2012:
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4.1 mil
4.1 mil
4.1 mil
4.8 mil
Office of the Chief Economist 7
4

5. 12/09/2013
In October, we saw large increase in the number
of people not in the labor force.
DRAFT
Change = 155 + 608 = 763
2,497
4,306
Not in
Labor Force
Unemployed
Employed
3,698
2,652
+155
+608
Office of the Chief Economist 8
8 Filename/RPS Number
In November, we see a substantial decrease in
the number of people not in the labor force.
DRAFT
Change = -180 + (-238)= - 438
2,611
3,382
Not in
Labor Force
Unemployed
Employed
3,620
2,431
-180
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-238
Office of the Chief Economist 9
5

6. 12/09/2013
DRAFT
Extending EUC will help our economy
and millions of families
 Nearly 69 million people have been supported by extended UI benefits, including
almost 17 million children
 3.6 million additional people will lose access to UI benefits beyond 26 weeks by the end
of 2014
 Failing to extend UI benefits would reduce demand and cost 240,000 jobs in 2014.
 CBO and JP Morgan estimates suggest that without an extension of EUC GDP will be
.2 to .4 percentage points lower.
 Expiration of extended UI benefits may also lead some long-term unemployed to stop
looking for work and leave the labor force.
 The long-term unemployment rate (2.6% in October) is at least twice as high as it was
at the expiration of every previous program.
 EUC is self-ending: the median number of weeks one can receive benefits is down
from a peak of 53 weeks in 2010 to 28 weeks currently and 14 weeks under the
proposed extension
Office of the Chief Economist
10
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DRAFT
The median number of weeks available
has fallen as the economy has improved
Historical and Projected EUC Weeks Available at Median and 90 th Percentile
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
Median
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2012
2013
2014
2015
90th percentile
Office of the Chief Economist
11
6

7. 12/09/2013
DRAFT
Thank you!
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Office of the Chief Economist
12
7