The document discusses how to build strong arguments in urbanism by adopting a sceptical viewpoint and using formal logic to structure propositions effectively. It emphasizes the importance of understanding causality and avoiding logical fallacies such as circular reasoning, while also addressing the need for coherent narratives when presenting ideas. Additionally, it highlights the necessity of grounding arguments in research and providing compelling visual illustrations to engage the audience.

1. Building Up a
Solid Argument
Critical Thinking Skills for Urbanism
Roberto Rocco
Spatial Planning and Strategy
TU Delft
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2. Sharp
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3. Precise
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4. Critical
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5. Motivated
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6. How to build an argument?
✦ In every aspect of
life, we need to
communicate our
ideas and convince
people of our views.
✦ In order to do that
properly, we need to
be able to explain
WHY our
arguments are valid.
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7. How to build a strong argument
✦ Approach all issues from the
point of view of a sceptic
reader/viewer
✦ Use formal logic and other
rhetorical devices
✦ Order your arguments for
maximum effect.
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8. The sceptic reader
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9. When willing to persuade, whose
point of view is most important?
Not yours - you are already
convinced that your points are
true!
Therefore, when writing to persuade, you
should adopt a sceptic's point of view. When
sceptics read arguments, they raise doubts and
questions.
The most persuasive arguments are the ones
that anticipate these doubts and questions and
respond to them in advance.
Source: http://www.galeschools.com/research_tools/src/build_arguement.htm
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10. Use logic!
In logic, arguments are propositions that
fit together in a structure.
The structure is composed of premises
and the conclusions that follow.
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11. Example
✦ The Randstad is a huge and rich polycentric urban
agglomeration located at the Delta of the river
Rhine.
✦ River deltas are particularly affected by climate
change, because they are characterised by heavy
rainfalls, which are bound to become heavier as the
climate warms up, and they need to deal with
changing tidal regimes (sea levels might be rising).
✦ THEREFORE, the Randstad is particularly
sensitive to climate change, and new and inventive
solutions must be found to allow urbanisation to
thrive.
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12. But beware!
All the
premisses
MUST be true in
order for your
argument to be
true as well.
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13. Are these premisses true?
✦ The Randstad is a huge and rich polycentric urban
agglomeration located at the Delta of the river Rhine.
✦ River deltas are particularly sensitive to climate change,
because they are characterised by heavy rainfalls, which
are bound to become heavier as the climate warms up,
and they need to deal with changing tidal regimes
(sea levels might be rising).
✦ THEREFORE, the Randstad is particularly sensitive to
climate change, and new and inventive solutions must
be found to allow urbanisation to thrive.
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14. You need to make your
arguments grounded by
authority
HOW?
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15. Guess...
Research!
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16. At your presentation or when
writing a text...
✦ Make questions (e.g. the research questions
are there to direct attention and focus)
✦ Tell a very abbreviated version of your story
at the beginning of your presentation (in a
text this is called an abstract!), so people
know the story line and can follow it better
✦ Have a coherent and solid narrative (a
story), without too many holes and where all
pieces fit together (that’s the meaning of
‘coherent’)
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17. Show us the way!
✦ Make sure the audience knows the structure of your
story FIRST! (have a slide with the structure or outline
the structure in the report)
✦ Remind the audience of the last steps before proceeding
✦ Make sure one step leads to the next in a LOGICAL
way
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18. Illustrate *and design!
✦ ILLUSTRATE
(after al, you are a
designer!)Use maps,
photographs, sound,
video: be creative!
✦ Situate yourself and the
audience
(geographically, but also
theoretically!)
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19. Elements of an argument
✦ The Author’s position (YOUR position)
✦ An implicit or explicit world view (are
you a poet, a medical doctor or an
urbanist?)
✦ A line of reasoning to support a
conclusion
✦ The intention to persuade
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20. But most important
✦ Introduce an
ISSUE or a
PROBLEM
you want to
discuss or
develop.
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21. And make questions!
Make questions. The
audience will try to
answer them WITH you.
They will follow your
arguments closely and
will make preliminary
conclusions in the
RIGHT DIRECTION!
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22. Weakness of argumentation
✦ Poor
structure
✦ Logical
inconsistency
✦ Hidden
assumptions
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23. But most important
✦ If you do not introduce the
issue, the problem or the
contradiction you want to
tackle, the audience will
inevitably think at some point:
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24. Why
am I
listening to
this?
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25. Other causes for weakness
✦ Confusing cause and
effect
✦ Circular
argumentation
✦ Attacking the
character of a person
rather than evaluating
their reasoning
✦ Misrepresentation
✦ Emotive language
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26. Circular argument
✦ Circular reasoning is an attempt to
support a statement by simply repeating
the statement in different or stronger
terms.
✦ In this fallacy, the reason given is nothing
more than a restatement of the conclusion
that poses as the reason for the conclusion.
Source:http://logicandanalysiscourse.com/Definitions.html
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27. The circular argument
I vow to bring change
by making things
different!
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28. Examples of Circular Argument
in Urbanism
✦ Delft is a Knowledge City because there is a
lot of knowledge being produced in the city.
✦ Chinese cities are growing fast because more
and more people are migrating towards them
from rural parts of China.
✦ ‘Problem neighbourhoods’ in the Netherlands
are bad because they have several social and
spatial problems.
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29. But let’s first think of CAUSES
It is IMPERATIVE for us to
concentrate on causality, because we
want to solve the right problems with
our designs and plans.
To be able to explain WHY your
design or plan will work, you need to
understand:
✦ The problem you are tackling
✦ The CAUSES of that problem
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30. But there are the false
correlations
✦ The number of car crimes has increased.
✦ In the past, there used to be a limited
number of car colours from which
buyers could choose. Now there is
much more variety.
✦ The wider the choice of car colours, the
higher the rate of car crime.
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31. Correlation does not
imply causation
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32. False correlation
A occurs in correlation
with B.
Therefore, A causes B.
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33. Reverse causation
(B causes A)
The more firemen fighting a
fire, the bigger the fire is.
Therefore firemen cause fire.
Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation
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34. A causes B and B causes A
(bidirectional causation)
Increased pressure results
in increased temperature.
Therefore pressure causes
temperature.
Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation
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35. They are proportional to each
other
The ideal gas law, PV = nRT, describes the direct
relationship between pressure and temperature (along
with other factors) to show that there is a direct
correlation between the two properties.
For a fixed volume, an increase in temperature will cause
an increase in pressure; likewise, increased pressure will
cause an increase in temperature.
This demonstrates in that the two are directly
proportional to each other and not independent functions.
Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation
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36. A third factor C (the common-
causal variable) causes both A and B
As ice cream sales increase, the
rate of drowning deaths
increases sharply.
Therefore, ice cream causes drowning.
Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation
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37. Determining causation
Intuitively,
causation seems to
require not just a
correlation, but a
counterfactual
dependence.
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38. The lazy student
Suppose that a student performed poorly on a test
and guesses that the cause was his not studying.
To prove this, one thinks of the counterfactual –
the same student writing the same test under the
same circumstances but having studied the night
before
Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation
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39. Classic examples in Urbanism:
Find the false correlations
✦ Xi’An is a large city in central China, only recently
touched by the Chinese central government-
sponsored developmental policy named ‘Go West’.
✦ Xi’An is now experiencing rapid economic growth.
However, the city is not fulfilling its capacity to
operate as a global city for China’s hinterland.
✦ The aim of this project is to build a business area in
the model of La Defense in Paris, so that Xi’An can
play its due role as a Chinese global city in the region.
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40. Classic examples in Urbanism:
Find the false correlations
✦ Delft is a Creative City because it is the home of the largest
technical university of the Netherlands, as well as several
applied sciences colleges and research institutes. Its
“cappuccino coefficient” is very high (Florida, 2002).
Therefore, its inhabitants enjoy an atmosphere of creativity and
invention.
✦ The municipality wants to increase the city’s ‘creative’ profile
by connecting the city centre to TU Delft in a more consistent
way.
✦ By designing a new connection between the old city centre and
the university, the municipality expects to improve the
accessibility of inhabitants to knowledge and to give students
more access to the ‘cappuccino’ factor.
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41. Classic examples in Urbanism:
Find the false correlations
✦ The neighbourhood called Vrederust in the west of the Dutch
city of The Hague is a typical example of post-war modernist
development. It is a grey, repetitive, uninspired neighbourhood
plagued by social problems. It is one of the so called
‘Vogelaarwijken’, the list of 50 ‘problem neighbourhoods’ in the
Netherlands.
✦ The high concentration of non-Western migrants is the reason
the place is so violent and unfriendly. The plans of the
municipality include the demolition of 2/3 of the existing
housing stock to be replaced with new up to date housing.
✦ By improving the living environments, the municipality expects
to mitigate the problems in the area and attract new inhabitants.
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42. Predicting the future?
But how do
we investigate
causality in a
design project?
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43. Investigation,
my dear Watson!
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44. Particularity of design
✦ Although it is
IMPOSSIBLE to
predict whether a
design or a plan will
work or not, it is
possible to anticipate
some SPATIAL
consequences of an
intervention by !
DESIGNING!
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Author: Feile Cao, 2010
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45. When explaining a design project
You can start with an inspiring
image of your VISION for the
area and then explain why it is
the best solution
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46. This is my project and it is awesome!
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47. My project is awesome because it has a land use
plan and some interventions that will make the
area attractive.
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48. My project is awesome because I have tackled the
problem of connectivity between the centre of the
city and the surrounding satellite towns.
Or
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49. The first option
is an example of
circular argument. In the
second option, I offered a
tangible explanation why I
think my project is awesome
by highlighting problems
that were probably solved
by specific
interventions.
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50. Thanks for listening!
Questions?
With special thanks to Matt Smith (ChernobylBob)
of Gloucester, UK, whose photos adorn these pages.
Matt’s photographs are available at:
www.flickr.com/photos/chernobylbob/
Prepared by Roberto Rocco, TU Delft
r.c.rocco@tudelft.nl
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51. The
End
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