The document provides a summary of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book "Fooled by Randomness". It discusses some of the key concepts in the book, including: (1) how chance and randomness play a larger role in life outcomes than people realize (2) the impact of survivorship bias in only seeing successful outcomes (3) how small events can have disproportionately large consequences in non-linear systems. The book argues that people tend to overestimate their abilities and fail to properly account for the role of randomness, luck, and uncertainty in their successes and failures.
People tend to justify random outcomes as non-random and rationalize chance outcomes as results of deliberate actions.
As much as we want to “keep it simple, stupid” … It is precisely the simplification of issues that are actually very complex, which can be dangerous.
People tend to justify random outcomes as non-random and rationalize chance outcomes as results of deliberate actions.
As much as we want to “keep it simple, stupid” … It is precisely the simplification of issues that are actually very complex, which can be dangerous.
Jay Berkowitz, CEO of TenGoldenRules.com presents the 10 Success Strategies for Internet Marketers at Affiliate Summit West in Las Vegas on January 13, 2009.
Districtly located in the heart of dubai. Aimed at a glamorous and discerning crowd who enjoy the finer things in life, SHISHA LOUNGE CAFE is the most elegant night spot on 2nd Dec street with the perfect choice for customers to relax indulge and unwind in a dynamic atmosphere and soak up the pleasure on the latest chic scene.
SHISHA LOUNGE CAFE will set a new standard in Dubai's hip nightlife landscape by blending the nuances of London, Europe's, and New York's ultra chic party scene. With a VIP private cabins, lavish decor and designer seating that create a feeling of intimacy and the very best of a party.
Harmful Effects of SHISHA Tobacco | Business Research Syed Wahaj
This project allowed us to learn the data collecting and analysis techniques. We measured the “reasons of shisha consumption” and “level of awareness of harmful effects of shisha” through this exploratory research. Interviews and survey questionnaire tools are used as source of collecting the data.
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Jay Berkowitz, CEO of TenGoldenRules.com presents the 10 Success Strategies for Internet Marketers at Affiliate Summit West in Las Vegas on January 13, 2009.
Districtly located in the heart of dubai. Aimed at a glamorous and discerning crowd who enjoy the finer things in life, SHISHA LOUNGE CAFE is the most elegant night spot on 2nd Dec street with the perfect choice for customers to relax indulge and unwind in a dynamic atmosphere and soak up the pleasure on the latest chic scene.
SHISHA LOUNGE CAFE will set a new standard in Dubai's hip nightlife landscape by blending the nuances of London, Europe's, and New York's ultra chic party scene. With a VIP private cabins, lavish decor and designer seating that create a feeling of intimacy and the very best of a party.
Harmful Effects of SHISHA Tobacco | Business Research Syed Wahaj
This project allowed us to learn the data collecting and analysis techniques. We measured the “reasons of shisha consumption” and “level of awareness of harmful effects of shisha” through this exploratory research. Interviews and survey questionnaire tools are used as source of collecting the data.
Business Paper: Pro choice argument essay. Pro-Choice Argument.pdf | DocDroid. 015 Pro Choice Argument Essay Argumentative Abortion On Index3 .... pro life vs pro choice argumentative essay - Izetta Pringle. Write my essay for me with Professional Academic Writers - abortion .... Best College Level Argumentative Essay most complete - scholarship. The debate between pro-choice and pro-life Essay. Pro-Choice Essay | Essay on Pro-Choice for Students and Children in .... Pro choice essay thesis proposal. Scholarship essay: Argumentative essay on abortion pro choice. Persuasive Essay: Pro choice persuasive speech outline. Persuasive Essay: Pro Choice - Sofia's Blog!! - Paperblog. Pro choice arguments thesis - essaylounge.x.fc2.com. Argumentative Essay on Pros and Cons of Abortion | Abortion Rights .... ️ Abortion pro life arguments essay. Pro Choice Argumentative Essay .... Free Pro-Choice Essays and Papers - 123helpme. Argumentative Abortion Essay. Essay on Abortion: Pro-Life or Pro-Choice? | Ultius. Best pro-choice argument:. Pro choice arguments for abortion essays - autravanastenerifees.x.fc2.com. pro life vs pro choice argumentative essay. Pro choice argument essay - Selfguidedlife. ≫ Pro-Choice Letter Free Essay Sample on Samploon.com. Argumentative Essay On Abortion ~ Addictionary Pro Choice Argument Essay
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The Psychology Of MONEY: 10 Lessons To Make You RichFlavian Mwasi
Picture this. You've just stumbled upon the secret formula that the world's richest people don't want you to know. A formula so powerful it could turn your financial life around in a heartbeat, but here's the catch. You've got only one shot to get it right. Want to know what it is?
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Process Essay - 24+ Examples, Format, Pdf | Examples. Process Essay - Excelsior College OWL. 009 What Is Process Essay Example Of Paragraph Analysis Examples .... How to Write a Process Essay: 15 Steps (with Pictures) - wikiHow. School essay: Sample of process essay.
Luck and risk are siblings. They are both the reality that every outcome in life is guided by forces other than individual effort.
NYU professor Scott Galloway has a related idea that is so important to remember when judging success --- both your own and others': nothing is as good or as bad as it seems.
Bill Gates went to one of the only high schools in the world that had a computer.
The story of how Lakeside School, just outside Seattle, even got a computer is remarkable. Bill Dougall was a World War II navy pilot turned high school math and science teacher. “He believed that book study wasn’t enough without real-world experience. He also realized that we’d need to know something about computers when we got to college,” recalled late Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen.
In 1968 Dougall petitioned the Lakeside School Mothers’ Club to use the proceeds from its annual rummage sale-about $3,000-to lease a Teletype Model 30 computer hooked up to the General Electric mainframe terminal for computer time-sharing.
“The whole idea of time-sharing only got invented in 1965,”Gates later said. “Someone was pretty forward looking.” Most university graduate schools did not have a computer anywhere near as advanced as Bill Gates had access to in eighth grade. And he couldn’t get enough of it.
Gates was 13 years old in 1968 when he met classmate Paul Allen. Allen was also obsessed with the school’s computer, and the two hit it off.
Lakeside’s computer wasn’t part of its general curriculum It was an independent study program. Bill and Paul could toy away with the thing at their leisure, letting their creativity run wild-after school, late into the night, on weekends. They quickly became computing experts.
During one of their late-night sessions, Allen recalled Gates showing him a Fortune magazine and saying, “What do you think it’s like to run a Fortune 500 company?” Allen said he had no idea. “Maybe we’ll have our own computer company someday,” Gates said. Microsoft is now worth more than a trillion dollars.
A little quick math.
In 1968 there were roughly 303 million high-school-age people in the world, according to the UN.
About 18 million of them lived in the United States.
About 270,000 of them lived in the United States.
A little over 100,000 of them lived in the Seattle area.
And only about 300 of them attended Lakeside School.
One in a million high-school-age students attended the high school that had the combination of cash and foresight to buy a сташом computer. Bill Gates happened to be one of them.
Gates is not shy about what this meant. “If there had been no Lakeside, there would have been no Microsoft,” he told the school’s graduating class in 2005.
Gates is staggeringly smart, even more hardworking, and as a teenager had a vision for computers that even most seasoned computer executives couldn’t grasp. He also had a one in a million head start by going to school at Lakeside.
Now let me tell you about Gates’ friend Kent Evans. He expe
Read| The latest issue of The Challenger is here! We are thrilled to announce that our school paper has qualified for the NATIONAL SCHOOLS PRESS CONFERENCE (NSPC) 2024. Thank you for your unwavering support and trust. Dive into the stories that made us stand out!
A review of the growth of the Israel Genealogy Research Association Database Collection for the last 12 months. Our collection is now passed the 3 million mark and still growing. See which archives have contributed the most. See the different types of records we have, and which years have had records added. You can also see what we have for the future.
This presentation includes basic of PCOS their pathology and treatment and also Ayurveda correlation of PCOS and Ayurvedic line of treatment mentioned in classics.
How to Add Chatter in the odoo 17 ERP ModuleCeline George
In Odoo, the chatter is like a chat tool that helps you work together on records. You can leave notes and track things, making it easier to talk with your team and partners. Inside chatter, all communication history, activity, and changes will be displayed.
MATATAG CURRICULUM: ASSESSING THE READINESS OF ELEM. PUBLIC SCHOOL TEACHERS I...NelTorrente
In this research, it concludes that while the readiness of teachers in Caloocan City to implement the MATATAG Curriculum is generally positive, targeted efforts in professional development, resource distribution, support networks, and comprehensive preparation can address the existing gaps and ensure successful curriculum implementation.
The simplified electron and muon model, Oscillating Spacetime: The Foundation...RitikBhardwaj56
Discover the Simplified Electron and Muon Model: A New Wave-Based Approach to Understanding Particles delves into a groundbreaking theory that presents electrons and muons as rotating soliton waves within oscillating spacetime. Geared towards students, researchers, and science buffs, this book breaks down complex ideas into simple explanations. It covers topics such as electron waves, temporal dynamics, and the implications of this model on particle physics. With clear illustrations and easy-to-follow explanations, readers will gain a new outlook on the universe's fundamental nature.
June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...Levi Shapiro
Letter from the Congress of the United States regarding Anti-Semitism sent June 3rd to MIT President Sally Kornbluth, MIT Corp Chair, Mark Gorenberg
Dear Dr. Kornbluth and Mr. Gorenberg,
The US House of Representatives is deeply concerned by ongoing and pervasive acts of antisemitic
harassment and intimidation at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Failing to act decisively to ensure a safe learning environment for all students would be a grave dereliction of your responsibilities as President of MIT and Chair of the MIT Corporation.
This Congress will not stand idly by and allow an environment hostile to Jewish students to persist. The House believes that your institution is in violation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, and the inability or
unwillingness to rectify this violation through action requires accountability.
Postsecondary education is a unique opportunity for students to learn and have their ideas and beliefs challenged. However, universities receiving hundreds of millions of federal funds annually have denied
students that opportunity and have been hijacked to become venues for the promotion of terrorism, antisemitic harassment and intimidation, unlawful encampments, and in some cases, assaults and riots.
The House of Representatives will not countenance the use of federal funds to indoctrinate students into hateful, antisemitic, anti-American supporters of terrorism. Investigations into campus antisemitism by the Committee on Education and the Workforce and the Committee on Ways and Means have been expanded into a Congress-wide probe across all relevant jurisdictions to address this national crisis. The undersigned Committees will conduct oversight into the use of federal funds at MIT and its learning environment under authorities granted to each Committee.
• The Committee on Education and the Workforce has been investigating your institution since December 7, 2023. The Committee has broad jurisdiction over postsecondary education, including its compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, campus safety concerns over disruptions to the learning environment, and the awarding of federal student aid under the Higher Education Act.
• The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is investigating the sources of funding and other support flowing to groups espousing pro-Hamas propaganda and engaged in antisemitic harassment and intimidation of students. The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is the principal oversight committee of the US House of Representatives and has broad authority to investigate “any matter” at “any time” under House Rule X.
• The Committee on Ways and Means has been investigating several universities since November 15, 2023, when the Committee held a hearing entitled From Ivory Towers to Dark Corners: Investigating the Nexus Between Antisemitism, Tax-Exempt Universities, and Terror Financing. The Committee followed the hearing with letters to those institutions on January 10, 202
Unit 8 - Information and Communication Technology (Paper I).pdfThiyagu K
This slides describes the basic concepts of ICT, basics of Email, Emerging Technology and Digital Initiatives in Education. This presentations aligns with the UGC Paper I syllabus.
A Strategic Approach: GenAI in EducationPeter Windle
Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies such as Generative AI, Image Generators and Large Language Models have had a dramatic impact on teaching, learning and assessment over the past 18 months. The most immediate threat AI posed was to Academic Integrity with Higher Education Institutes (HEIs) focusing their efforts on combating the use of GenAI in assessment. Guidelines were developed for staff and students, policies put in place too. Innovative educators have forged paths in the use of Generative AI for teaching, learning and assessments leading to pockets of transformation springing up across HEIs, often with little or no top-down guidance, support or direction.
This Gasta posits a strategic approach to integrating AI into HEIs to prepare staff, students and the curriculum for an evolving world and workplace. We will highlight the advantages of working with these technologies beyond the realm of teaching, learning and assessment by considering prompt engineering skills, industry impact, curriculum changes, and the need for staff upskilling. In contrast, not engaging strategically with Generative AI poses risks, including falling behind peers, missed opportunities and failing to ensure our graduates remain employable. The rapid evolution of AI technologies necessitates a proactive and strategic approach if we are to remain relevant.
Thinking of getting a dog? Be aware that breeds like Pit Bulls, Rottweilers, and German Shepherds can be loyal and dangerous. Proper training and socialization are crucial to preventing aggressive behaviors. Ensure safety by understanding their needs and always supervising interactions. Stay safe, and enjoy your furry friends!
MASS MEDIA STUDIES-835-CLASS XI Resource Material.pdf
Book summery fooled_by_randomness
1. Summary – Fooled by randomness
Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
The book was written by a mathematics and statistics adept trader / academic / philosopher
who explore fun and interesting questions about probability, causation, psychology, and life.
Introduction of the Author
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a Lebanese–born essayist, scholar and former practitioner of
mathematical finance. He is best known as the author of the 2007 book ‘The Black Swan’.
Taleb has 3 distinct careers. Firstly, he is a bestselling author with 2.7 million copies in
various languages. Secondly, he is a university professor in Risk Engineering, a scholar, an
epistemologist and a philosopher of science. Finally, he is a former senior Wall Street trader,
risk expert and a practitioner of mathematical finance.
Introduction
This book mainly subjects on the fact that human beings are not at all perfect at
judging probabilities. Taleb has been critical of the of the finance industry, so moat part of
the book contains financial probabilities, and his argument is always to the point and requires
no knowledge of the market. This book revolves around many people misjudging risks and
probabilities (in many streams). Taleb hits pretty hard on what he calls ‘data snoopers’, his
term for people who back fit theories to existing data. Taleb is an activist and a promoter of
what he calls a ‘Black Swan robust’ society and an aggressive ‘stochastic tinkering’ as a
means of scientific discovery. Taleb’s writing style mixes narrative fiction and short
philosophical tales with historical and scientific commentary.
One of the most notorious examples is the “Bible Code”(which has been
thoroughly fake), but Taleb argues that analysts who spend their time trying to find patterns
in historical market data are no different. If you consistently work hard, you will undoubtedly
find apparent regularities, which can be compelling enough when seen in isolation. In
context, though they result into nothing, but meaningless statical irregularities.
Taleb’s best example of poor probability is the infamous ‘Survivor Bias’, which
states that human’s tendency is to be disproportionately impressed by success. We always
give a deaf ear to the reality that, for one success story, there are many failures. But, we
rarely hear about the failures. So, it is all a game of numbers: Out of 10,000 traders, very few
are statistically bound to be successful, though they are nothing than lucky idiots.
Taleb also has some fun at the expense of economists and analysts, especially those
whose predictions turned out wrong, but who claim that the theories were in fact right, and
the facts simply weren’t to be of that sort. This is what Taleb calls ‘Denial of History’, and it
is common among investors and gamblers.
2. This book is written in a casual and funny manner. Overall, the author’s points come
through loud and clear. Ironically, for a man who advocates self-doubt, Taleb is very self
confident.
Chapter1
This part derives its name from the tale of the Solon where a wealthy king boasts in front of
Solon about his wealth and Solon says “The uncertain future has yet to come, with all variety
of future; and him only to whom the divinity has guaranteed continued happiness until the
end we may call happy.” In other words, “it ain’t over till it’s over.”
This part discusses how luck plays an important role in deciding the wealth of an individual
and how he could very easily lose all his wealth due to luck which he has gained due to luck.
Thus we can never say that just because someone is successful right not he will always be
successful in the future. The past is never an exact indicator of the future and luck never has
bias. It will always favour both the sides
Chapter 2
In this chapter the author extends his ideas to give example of game by chance and the money
earned due to hard work. Author mentions that when your success had nothing to do with you
it is of no importance and not at all reliable as you are successful due to mere luck. All that
you are doing is playing with probabilities and nothing else. To contradict this example
author gives an example of Dentist who earns the same amount due to his own skill and
diligent practice and hard work. This success is more reliable and self sustaining as it has to
do with the individual itself and not by luck.
Chapter 3
This chapter brings to light the superiority of the Monte Carlo technique of simulations. This
according to author is more superior to the past analysis which does not give us the complete
picture of hoe the things can go wrong. This technique can more reliably and accurately
present to you the associated randomness with your average result. Less the variability in the
set of results given by the simulation more it is resistant to randomness.
Chapter 4
This chapter says that using rationality is complete non-sense in markets and not at all an
indication of intellect. The author gives an example of abstract artworks to describe and says
that only those things which can harm us and threaten our survival have to be thought out
with rationality. For all other things like markets which are ruled by randomness using
analysis is a mere waste of time and simulations can mean a lot.
Chapter 5
This chapter focuses on variety of characteristics seen in the fools of randomness. He says
that don’t overestimate the accuracy of your beliefs. You may not be right every time because
you have been mostly right in the past. Always asses your ideas and make sure they still hold
true. Just being loyal to your ideas which once worked does not help in markets. Always have
3. a back-up plan if the things do not go as they were planned. If there is no plan for negative
things then one such event could be catastrophic. Be critical about each positive thing as well
and accept your mistakes as early as possible as before they grow bigger.
Chapter 6
This chapter throws light on how median induces asymmetry in thinking and how it can be
countered. The author mentions that though the percentile values on both sides of the median
are the same the pay-offs may not be the same. Hence it is always advisable to use the
expected values. He illustrated it by giving the example of a patient’s life.
Chapter7
Here the author again turns back to his black swan philosophy to corroborate his point about
black swans. “No amount of observations of white swans can allow the inference that all
swans are white, but the observation of a single black swan is sufficient to refute that
conclusion.” He says that statistics is very good measure to take decisions but highly
destructive if used to manage risks and exposures.
Chapter 8
This chapter extends the philosophy of the previous chapters based on the concept of
“Survivorship bias”. This concept says that we are most likely to see the white swans i.e. the
people who have followed certain path and have succeeded but we fail to see a bunch of
those who failed after following the same path.The main reason for this is only the bright
things are stored for the future and we can only hear success stories and what was the
strategy. The failures are not recorded or else the people who failed do not show up at all.
This induces the survivorship bias which contaminates the decision making process. It
becomes very essential to look at those who failed using the same strategy so that the
decision making is clear with the alternative consequences also to the fore.
Chapter 9
This chapter further gives illustrations to put forth the concept of Survivorship bias more
strongly. The key learnings form this chapter are that if there are a large number of people
who have done certain things or have applied certain strategy and have failed (i.e. large pool
of poor performers) then there will be a few people who will turn out successful and people
tend to confuse that they have skill rather than understanding the fact that this is simple
deviation from normal.The success of the person tends to be spectacular when there is large
number of people who have tried certain thing and failed. This is due to the fact that larger
the original pool of people longer the survivors had to survive and more successful and
skilful they seem to be.
Chapter 10
This chapter brings out the non-linearity in the life and pay-offs of small things. Small
advantages often translate into disproportionately large payoffs, or simple randomness can
lead to the same thing without any advantage at all. The author explains it with an interesting
example.
4. When a sandcastle is built each grain of sand goes on adding to the castle and its height and
strength. This is linear behaviour. Then suddenly one grain of sand and the whole tower is
floored. That’s what the life is like, non-linear.
This is the most dangerous phenomena as we do not realize that small amount of randomness
goes on building as we take each step further and so the success as well as failure goes on
becoming greater and greater. These nonlinearities of life cause us to confuse success with
skill.
Chapter 11
This chapter discusses the biases we have in our thinking and how we tend to ignore the
negatives of a particular aspect while taking decisions. The chapter gives an example of
cancer patient. When told that there is 72% chance that he will live for next 5 years he is very
happy, forgetting the fact that there is 28% chance that he will die. According to the author
knowing the other side is half the battle won. When we are aware of the cons of the
transaction automatically the decision biases get removed.
Chapter 12
The author now starts to provide the solutions or rather work-around for your predisposition
to get fooled by randomness. He modestly admits that it is humanly not possible to give up
emotions and rely purely on numbers but it is possible to have a logical base to your decision
making. The author just wants to tell the readers to avoid having gamblers ticks and if at all
they have it, then realize them and set up systems to deal with them such as preventing access
to information which is filled with noise, rather than signal (e.g. the 24-hour financial news
network) if these cause you to react in a superstitious manner rather than a logical manner.
Chapter 13
People tend to fall in love with their strategies and ideologies which they have built with lot
of efforts and over a long period of time. The ideologies have made them successful and
hence after a certain period of time people start blindly following them. According to the
author this is the most dangerous thing as the environment is always changing. We have to
adapt to the environment to become more successful or else the randomness will increase the
probability of failure.
Chapter 14
Author introduces us to the word Kaizen which means gradual improvement in slow steps.
This means continuous assessment of the failing as well as successful processes and bettering
all of them to achieve improved results. The reality of life is that we are dominated by odds.
Randomness will occur. The best we can do is plan for contingencies so as to reduce our
downside exposure.