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BLUE WATERS ENABLED ADVANCES
IN THE FIELDS OF ATMOSPHERIC
SCIENCE, CLIMATE, AND WEATHER
Susan Bates
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Blue Waters Users Symposium
June 6, 2018
NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation
Courtesy Warren Washington
•Systems of differential
equations that describe
fluid motion, radiative
transfer, etc.
•Planet divided into 3-
dimensional grid to solve
the equations
•More grid boxes = higher
resolutionhttps://www.earthmagazine.org/article/todays-weather-forecast-good-strong-chance-improvement
Earth Magazine
UCAR/NCAR Multimedia Gallery
https://www2.ucar.edu/news/understanding-climate-change-multimedia-gallery
New CPL7 Architecture
processors
New Single Executable CESM1 architecture (cpl7)
time
CPL (regridding, merging)
CAM
CLM
CICE
Driver (controls time evolution)
POP
Sequential Layout
processors
Hybrid Sequential/Concurrent Layouts
CAM
CLM CICE
POP
Driver
CPL
Original Multiple Executable CCSM3 architecture (cpl6)
CAM CLM CICE POP CPL
time
processors
atmosphere
coupler
land sea ice
ocean
FAST but COARSE
CLIMATE WORKHORSE
SLOW and EXPENSIVE
TCs
thunderstorm
sea breezes
tornado
cloud
microphysics
ETCs
Present Day 1985-2005
Present Day 1985-2005 (modified dust)
Future RCP8.5 2070-2090
Future RCP8.5 2070-2090 (modified SST)
Global Pacific Atlantic
StormCountperyear
AllStormsHurricanes
Major
Hurricanes
S. Bates and N. Rosenbloom, NCAR
• Community Earth System Model (CESM)
• 0.25° atmosphere/land
• Forced with interannually-varying sea
surface temperature and sea ice
• 908 nodes
• 1.4 model years per calendar day
Observed TC tracks and intensities (1981-2010)
CESM (Atm-Only) CESM (Fully-Coupled)
Both coupled and uncoupled versions of CESM simulate realistic
spatial reasonably captures key features of observed TC activity
IBTrACS
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ibtracs/
• Community Earth System
Model (CESM)
• Saved sub-daily atmosphere and
ocean fields
• Developed a reliable tracking
algorithm for tropical cyclones
in the model
• Computationally expensive due
to resolution, sub-daily output,
and simulation length (decades).
• 
Courtesy: Kevin Reed [See also: Wehner et al
CAM5: 1 degree
•  C
sk
Courtesy Kevin Reed
(See also Wehner et al. 2014, JAMES)
R. Sriver and H. Li
University of Illinois
RCP4.5 – Present Day RCP8.5 – Present Day
• Weather, Research, and Forecasting Model (WRF)
• 12km atmos
• 90 nodes
• 4 months every 1 calendar day
• 150 years
• higher resolution to capture some of the mesoscale processes that take place on small scales
that are important for extreme temperature and precipitation (e.g. Midwest soil moisture for
summer TMAX; convective processes for extreme precipitation)
D. Wuebbles and Z. Zobel
University of Illinois
Blue Waters Professor
¡ Entrainment is the introduction of dry air from outside the cloud inward, by its own
turbulent motions (eddies).
¡ Predicting entrainment (and the resulting cloud dilution– drying and cooling) is important for:
forecasting cloud/storm development & precipitation in weather forecasting models and
climate models
The turbulent eddies that entrain dry air also give
a cumulus cloud its “cauliflower” appearance.
• Cloud simulations have historically underestimated
entrainment.
• It has commonly been stated that this is a result of
inadequate model resolution for properly representing the
smaller eddies contributing to the entrainment. But no one
knew for sure…
Sonia Lasher-Trapp, U. Illinois
Blue Waters Professor
• CM1 model– George Bryan, NCAR
• Coarse-grained, pure MPI, 3-D cloud model designed to scale to tens of thousands of processors
• Requires model output at high temporal resolution (3 to 6 seconds)
Resolving ~ 40-50 m eddies
10 meter grid spacing:
1152 x 1152 x 700 grid points (~930 M), Dt =
0.15 s, for 1800 s
à 4096 processors for ~80 hrs
à Output files ~7 GB x 300 files ~2 TB
• Limit at which further grid
refinement is unproductive at
diluting the cloud = ~15m
• Before this study, the impact of
increasing resolution on entrainment
was only speculation.
• Impact: guide parameterizations in
larger-scale weather and climate
models.
Sonia Lasher-Trapp, U. Illinois
Blue Waters Professor
Leigh Orf
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Annual Mean Color Annual Mean Texture
Zhao, G., L. Di Girolamo, D.J. Diner, C.J. Bruegge, K. Mueller, and D.L. Wu, 2016: Regional changes in Earth’s
color and texture as observed from space over a 15-year period. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens., 54(7),
4240-4249, doi:10.1109/TGRS.2016.2538723
Terra/MISR spectral radiance data from 2000 to 2015 (240 TB)
was processed on Blue Waters to examine how the Earth’s
color and texture changed over this period.
The first color composite and texture images of the Earth’s
climate
Larry Di Girolamo, U. Illinois
Blue Waters Professor
• Resolution
• Number of simulations (ensembles), scenarios
• Amount of data saved
• Frequency of sampling
• Mechanisms investigated or novel way in which they were
investigated
Cutting Edge Research Enabled by Blue Waters
• Blue Waters provided a massively parallel system, one of the largest storage and bandwidth computing facilities
and excellent sharing services.
• Blue Waters, with its huge number of nodes, its high speed, and its large storage capability for high-resolution
model output and analysis allows us to push the spatial scale limit much farther than in the past.
• The hardware needed to run these kinds of simulations quickly exceeds the limits of most computers.
• Blue Waters staff have helped us to learn new and practical ways to visualize the output for easier analysis.
• The Blue Waters staff understand the needs of our project and facilitate getting jobs through the queue. It’s not
just the machine that enables our science but the staff as well.
• If we didn’t have Blue Waters, we would have accomplished about 1/10 of what we did.
• These are the calculations that I had been waiting to perform during my career, and Blue Waters presented that
opportunity!
• Machines like Blue Waters can create incredible simulations and amazing amounts of data that will long exceed the
machine's life span.
WHY BLUE WATERS?

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Blue Waters Enabled Advances in the Fields of Atmospheric Science, Climate, and Weather

  • 1. BLUE WATERS ENABLED ADVANCES IN THE FIELDS OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE, CLIMATE, AND WEATHER Susan Bates National Center for Atmospheric Research Blue Waters Users Symposium June 6, 2018 NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation
  • 3. •Systems of differential equations that describe fluid motion, radiative transfer, etc. •Planet divided into 3- dimensional grid to solve the equations •More grid boxes = higher resolutionhttps://www.earthmagazine.org/article/todays-weather-forecast-good-strong-chance-improvement Earth Magazine UCAR/NCAR Multimedia Gallery https://www2.ucar.edu/news/understanding-climate-change-multimedia-gallery
  • 4. New CPL7 Architecture processors New Single Executable CESM1 architecture (cpl7) time CPL (regridding, merging) CAM CLM CICE Driver (controls time evolution) POP Sequential Layout processors Hybrid Sequential/Concurrent Layouts CAM CLM CICE POP Driver CPL Original Multiple Executable CCSM3 architecture (cpl6) CAM CLM CICE POP CPL time processors atmosphere coupler land sea ice ocean
  • 5. FAST but COARSE CLIMATE WORKHORSE SLOW and EXPENSIVE TCs thunderstorm sea breezes tornado cloud microphysics ETCs
  • 6.
  • 7. Present Day 1985-2005 Present Day 1985-2005 (modified dust) Future RCP8.5 2070-2090 Future RCP8.5 2070-2090 (modified SST) Global Pacific Atlantic StormCountperyear AllStormsHurricanes Major Hurricanes S. Bates and N. Rosenbloom, NCAR • Community Earth System Model (CESM) • 0.25° atmosphere/land • Forced with interannually-varying sea surface temperature and sea ice • 908 nodes • 1.4 model years per calendar day
  • 8. Observed TC tracks and intensities (1981-2010) CESM (Atm-Only) CESM (Fully-Coupled) Both coupled and uncoupled versions of CESM simulate realistic spatial reasonably captures key features of observed TC activity IBTrACS https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ibtracs/ • Community Earth System Model (CESM) • Saved sub-daily atmosphere and ocean fields • Developed a reliable tracking algorithm for tropical cyclones in the model • Computationally expensive due to resolution, sub-daily output, and simulation length (decades). •  Courtesy: Kevin Reed [See also: Wehner et al CAM5: 1 degree •  C sk Courtesy Kevin Reed (See also Wehner et al. 2014, JAMES) R. Sriver and H. Li University of Illinois
  • 9.
  • 10. RCP4.5 – Present Day RCP8.5 – Present Day • Weather, Research, and Forecasting Model (WRF) • 12km atmos • 90 nodes • 4 months every 1 calendar day • 150 years • higher resolution to capture some of the mesoscale processes that take place on small scales that are important for extreme temperature and precipitation (e.g. Midwest soil moisture for summer TMAX; convective processes for extreme precipitation) D. Wuebbles and Z. Zobel University of Illinois Blue Waters Professor
  • 11. ¡ Entrainment is the introduction of dry air from outside the cloud inward, by its own turbulent motions (eddies). ¡ Predicting entrainment (and the resulting cloud dilution– drying and cooling) is important for: forecasting cloud/storm development & precipitation in weather forecasting models and climate models The turbulent eddies that entrain dry air also give a cumulus cloud its “cauliflower” appearance. • Cloud simulations have historically underestimated entrainment. • It has commonly been stated that this is a result of inadequate model resolution for properly representing the smaller eddies contributing to the entrainment. But no one knew for sure… Sonia Lasher-Trapp, U. Illinois Blue Waters Professor
  • 12. • CM1 model– George Bryan, NCAR • Coarse-grained, pure MPI, 3-D cloud model designed to scale to tens of thousands of processors • Requires model output at high temporal resolution (3 to 6 seconds) Resolving ~ 40-50 m eddies 10 meter grid spacing: 1152 x 1152 x 700 grid points (~930 M), Dt = 0.15 s, for 1800 s à 4096 processors for ~80 hrs à Output files ~7 GB x 300 files ~2 TB • Limit at which further grid refinement is unproductive at diluting the cloud = ~15m • Before this study, the impact of increasing resolution on entrainment was only speculation. • Impact: guide parameterizations in larger-scale weather and climate models. Sonia Lasher-Trapp, U. Illinois Blue Waters Professor
  • 13. Leigh Orf University of Wisconsin - Madison
  • 14. Annual Mean Color Annual Mean Texture Zhao, G., L. Di Girolamo, D.J. Diner, C.J. Bruegge, K. Mueller, and D.L. Wu, 2016: Regional changes in Earth’s color and texture as observed from space over a 15-year period. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens., 54(7), 4240-4249, doi:10.1109/TGRS.2016.2538723 Terra/MISR spectral radiance data from 2000 to 2015 (240 TB) was processed on Blue Waters to examine how the Earth’s color and texture changed over this period. The first color composite and texture images of the Earth’s climate Larry Di Girolamo, U. Illinois Blue Waters Professor
  • 15. • Resolution • Number of simulations (ensembles), scenarios • Amount of data saved • Frequency of sampling • Mechanisms investigated or novel way in which they were investigated Cutting Edge Research Enabled by Blue Waters
  • 16. • Blue Waters provided a massively parallel system, one of the largest storage and bandwidth computing facilities and excellent sharing services. • Blue Waters, with its huge number of nodes, its high speed, and its large storage capability for high-resolution model output and analysis allows us to push the spatial scale limit much farther than in the past. • The hardware needed to run these kinds of simulations quickly exceeds the limits of most computers. • Blue Waters staff have helped us to learn new and practical ways to visualize the output for easier analysis. • The Blue Waters staff understand the needs of our project and facilitate getting jobs through the queue. It’s not just the machine that enables our science but the staff as well. • If we didn’t have Blue Waters, we would have accomplished about 1/10 of what we did. • These are the calculations that I had been waiting to perform during my career, and Blue Waters presented that opportunity! • Machines like Blue Waters can create incredible simulations and amazing amounts of data that will long exceed the machine's life span. WHY BLUE WATERS?