This presentation is Bill Bayer's annual economic forecast. In it he walks through the results of his 2012 predictions, discusses the impact of the election on the economy, and paints a hesitantly positive picture of 2013 economy.
Northwest Mutual manages over $4.8 billion in assets under management and was founded in 1994, with offices in Vancouver, Toronto, Kelowna, and Richmond. The company has a history of innovation in its investment strategies, launching new funds focused on real estate, mortgages, bonds, and other asset classes between 2003 and 2017. Chief Investment Officer Rob Edel discussed 2016 investment performance and strategies, and economic issues facing the US economy under President Trump's administration.
This document discusses key economic indicators in the United States, including GDP, unemployment, federal debt, and stock market performance. It provides forecasts for 2012 GDP growth of around 2.3%, unemployment falling slightly to 8.2-8.7%, and moderate economic recovery continuing through the year, though European debt issues and slowing Chinese growth pose risks. Interest rates are expected to remain low to support the economy ahead of the presidential election. Reducing the federal debt ratio will require spending restraint and entitlement reforms.
The document summarizes the global economic crisis of 2008 and its effects. It discusses three key points:
1) The crisis originated from housing and credit market bubbles fueled by easy access to capital. As bubbles grew, a correction was inevitable.
2) The correction led to a recession, with world economic growth projected to slow significantly. India and other countries were heavily impacted by downturns in trade with the US, Europe, and China.
3) In the short term, pessimism and economic difficulties were expected to continue affecting India and the world. However, over the longer term beyond 24 months, optimism for recovery was expressed.
Extremely rapid economic growth
Fed by low cost of capital
Supported by large investment growth
Pushed by all round optimism
Spread by globalization
Confidence in central banks and regulators
A correction had to come
The larger the bubble, the steeper or longer the correction
The document discusses the global financial crisis, its causes, consequences, and implications for future business education. It summarizes that the crisis originated from the US housing market boom and unregulated financial innovation involving subprime mortgages. This led to a crisis of confidence spreading from the US to other parts of the world. The consequences included severe economic downturns. Going forward, there is a need for reforms in financial regulations, credit ratings, and increased focus on ethics and social responsibility in business education.
Will the US election trump the economy in 2017?RBS Economics
With the 2016 US Presidential election approach there have been questions about what this could mean for the US economy in 2017. In this blog, economist Rupert Seggins draws on the historical experience of the US and its G7 peers to offer an answer.
While this time may be different, history suggests that the bar for a President-caused US recession in 2017 is set much higher than may commonly be thought.
This document summarizes a webinar on financial wellness and the future of work. The webinar will have three parts: defining financial wellness, explaining why it matters for employees and employers, and reviewing evidence on whether financial wellness programs are having an impact. Attendees will learn about tools for participating in the webinar like asking questions and using social media. The presentation will feature speakers from HelloWallet and Morningstar and be moderated by an editor from Workforce magazine.
Northwest Mutual manages over $4.8 billion in assets under management and was founded in 1994, with offices in Vancouver, Toronto, Kelowna, and Richmond. The company has a history of innovation in its investment strategies, launching new funds focused on real estate, mortgages, bonds, and other asset classes between 2003 and 2017. Chief Investment Officer Rob Edel discussed 2016 investment performance and strategies, and economic issues facing the US economy under President Trump's administration.
This document discusses key economic indicators in the United States, including GDP, unemployment, federal debt, and stock market performance. It provides forecasts for 2012 GDP growth of around 2.3%, unemployment falling slightly to 8.2-8.7%, and moderate economic recovery continuing through the year, though European debt issues and slowing Chinese growth pose risks. Interest rates are expected to remain low to support the economy ahead of the presidential election. Reducing the federal debt ratio will require spending restraint and entitlement reforms.
The document summarizes the global economic crisis of 2008 and its effects. It discusses three key points:
1) The crisis originated from housing and credit market bubbles fueled by easy access to capital. As bubbles grew, a correction was inevitable.
2) The correction led to a recession, with world economic growth projected to slow significantly. India and other countries were heavily impacted by downturns in trade with the US, Europe, and China.
3) In the short term, pessimism and economic difficulties were expected to continue affecting India and the world. However, over the longer term beyond 24 months, optimism for recovery was expressed.
Extremely rapid economic growth
Fed by low cost of capital
Supported by large investment growth
Pushed by all round optimism
Spread by globalization
Confidence in central banks and regulators
A correction had to come
The larger the bubble, the steeper or longer the correction
The document discusses the global financial crisis, its causes, consequences, and implications for future business education. It summarizes that the crisis originated from the US housing market boom and unregulated financial innovation involving subprime mortgages. This led to a crisis of confidence spreading from the US to other parts of the world. The consequences included severe economic downturns. Going forward, there is a need for reforms in financial regulations, credit ratings, and increased focus on ethics and social responsibility in business education.
Will the US election trump the economy in 2017?RBS Economics
With the 2016 US Presidential election approach there have been questions about what this could mean for the US economy in 2017. In this blog, economist Rupert Seggins draws on the historical experience of the US and its G7 peers to offer an answer.
While this time may be different, history suggests that the bar for a President-caused US recession in 2017 is set much higher than may commonly be thought.
This document summarizes a webinar on financial wellness and the future of work. The webinar will have three parts: defining financial wellness, explaining why it matters for employees and employers, and reviewing evidence on whether financial wellness programs are having an impact. Attendees will learn about tools for participating in the webinar like asking questions and using social media. The presentation will feature speakers from HelloWallet and Morningstar and be moderated by an editor from Workforce magazine.
Despite a bumpy ride throughout 2014, the US economy gained pace while the US equity and fixed income markets outperformed most markets around the world. This performance came with higher market volatility in the US, a rallying dollar, slowing economies in Europe and Asia, and rising geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for the sixth straight year, posting a 7.52% gain (price-only return). The S&P 500 Index rose 13.69% (including reinvested dividends), marking the third straight year in which the benchmark has returned more than 10%. The Dow closed at a record high on 38 calendar days, while the S&P 500 had 53 record closes. The non-US markets followed a much different track: All major indices logged negative performance for the year (in USD). The MSCI EAFE Index had a -4.90% return and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index a -2.19% return (net dividends, in USD). The dollar’s strong performance relative to major regional currencies contributed significantly to the lower returns for US investors.
Government bond yields fell across major markets, including the US, where many expected higher rates in response to improving economic growth and an eventual rate increase due to the end of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined to 2.17% by year-end, down from 3.03% in 2013, with lower prices boosting its return to over 4.0% for the year. The Barclays US Government Bond Index returned 4.92%. World government bonds had slightly positive returns: The Citigroup World Government Bond 1–5 Year Index (hedged) returned 1.90%.
The document summarizes the top 5 political risks in Asia according to a political risk analysis firm. The risks are: 1) escalating territorial disputes over islands in the South China Sea increasing tensions; 2) increasing risk of social unrest and crackdown in China due to inequality and economic issues; 3) risk of miscalculation by isolated North Korean regime still propped up by China; 4) potential for instability if Japan's decline reduces its role in regional security; and 5) risk of turmoil from complacency about issues like corruption, poverty and unemployment fueling social tensions.
The document provides a quarterly review and outlook from Eastgate Advisors. It summarizes key economic indicators, index returns, and Eastgate's portfolio performance for the quarter. It then analyzes factors affecting returns, discusses risks, and outlines Eastgate's strategic and tactical outlook over the next 1-3 and 3-5 years, respectively. They expect mid-single digit returns for global equities but lower returns for bonds given rising interest rates and continued low global growth and inflation.
The document discusses recent market trends and political issues in the US. It notes that gold, silver, oil prices hit multi-year highs while the US dollar fell against other currencies. Inflation increased in China but remained stable in the US. Congress passed bills to reduce the federal budget deficit. The document then summarizes a survey of baby boomers that found most are concerned about retiring as planned due to financial uncertainties.
This document provides an overview of monetary policy and the Federal Reserve. It discusses two objectives of monetary policy which are unemployment and inflation. It also discusses tools the Federal Reserve uses to implement monetary policy such as changing the discount rate and reserve ratios. The document also discusses other related topics like the federal budget, taxes, spending, deficits, and debt.
The document summarizes Washington State's export destinations in 2011. China was the top destination, receiving $11.2 billion or 17.3% of Washington's total exports. The next largest destinations were Canada, Japan, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates. Together, the top 25 export markets accounted for 87.5% of Washington's total exports. Asian markets as a whole received 46% of Washington's exports, totaling over $26 billion.
2017 Q3 ASI Wealth Management Quarterly Market ReviewSusan Langdon
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.
The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified portfolios and features a quarterly topic.
This document provides a 2019 strategic outlook from Nicola Wealth. It begins with a review of 2018, which was a challenging year for markets. Several presentations then discuss themes including four season investing patterns, concerns around debt and potential economic storms from issues like trade wars and monetary policy. The document advocates an allocation emphasizing equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. It suggests opportunities may now exist more in areas like private debt and private equity versus public markets. Overall the outlook expresses caution about extended economic and market cycles.
J.T. Mullen is the Chief Investment Strategist at Fairport Asset Management, bringing over 30 years of experience. Previously, he was the Chief Financial Officer at The Cleveland Foundation for 23 years, growing their endowment from $400 million to $1.8 billion. John Silvis is the Director of Investments at Fairport and oversees the research team and investment decisions. Richard D'Amico is the Manager of Investments and oversees fixed income models and alternative investments.
The document provides an overview of the United States economy. It notes that the US has the largest economy in the world with a GDP of $14.6 trillion and an unemployment rate of 8.6%. It discusses key sectors of the economy including services, industry, and agriculture. It also outlines US monetary and fiscal policies as well as trade balances and foreign investment. The document examines economic indicators during the 2007-2009 financial crisis and policies used to stimulate recovery.
As the Chinese authorities inject a fresh $1trn in new credit in the first quarter of 2016, Economist Marcus Wright examines this latest development and what it means for China and the world economy.
The document summarizes the current state of the global economy and forecasts what may happen in the near future. It notes that the US is entering its deepest recession in decades due to the housing market crash and falling consumer spending. However, Asian economies are less dependent on US demand and continue growing rapidly, making Asia the main driver of global economic growth. While a US recession will impact Asia, the effects are expected to be smaller than in previous downturns due to Asia's growing domestic demand and trade with other regions. Over the long run, the economic shift towards Asia will further weaken the US dollar and American influence on the global economy.
The document discusses rising consumer prices, including the price of coffee. It provides three reasons for higher coffee prices: increasing costs of fertilizer and farm goods, rising affluence in developing countries leading to higher demand, and adverse weather affecting coffee production. While core inflation remains low, food and energy prices are rising. The yield curve is also discussed as a potential indicator of future recessions.
This document provides a summary of the political and economic situation in 11 countries in the Asia Pacific region. It includes a 3-5 sentence overview of each country's economy, key economic indicators, political system, and ratings of political risk. The countries covered are China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. For each, it discusses GDP growth rates, inflation, fiscal balances, exports, investment and other indicators, as well as political leadership and relevant economic reforms or challenges.
This document summarizes a seminar presentation on recessions. It defines a recession as a temporary economic decline identified by two successive quarters of declining GDP. Recessions cause unemployment to rise and output to fall as government borrowing increases. Depression is a more severe and prolonged type of recession. The presentation examines past recessions in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and 2008. It discusses causes of recessions like overproduction, currency crises, and energy crises. Government fiscal and monetary policies for stimulating economic recovery are also outlined.
My outlook for the year, written in December last year. Overly pessimistic unfortunately but with Spanish yields now over 6%, we\'re not out of the woods yet! (Pls note I did not write the China stocks or currency section.)
The document discusses the effects of a strong US dollar on the US economy. It notes that while a strong dollar benefits consumers through lower import prices and inflation, it hurts US-based multinational corporations as their foreign profits are worth less when converted to dollars. It also negatively impacts US manufacturers and exporters as their goods become more expensive overseas, which could weigh on US economic growth given manufacturing's large GDP contribution. Overall, the strong dollar presents challenges and opportunities for different sectors of the US economy.
The document summarizes the social impacts of the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. It discusses how the crisis led to rising unemployment and inflation, a decline in real incomes and household assets, and increases in poverty levels. Vulnerable groups like women, children, the elderly and migrant workers were disproportionately affected. Governments, communities, and households implemented various responses and coping mechanisms to deal with the economic hardship caused by the crisis.
The document provides a mid-year 2014 market summary and outlook. It reviews market performance in the first half of the year, noting gains in stocks and bonds. It discusses weak economic growth in Q1 and experts wrongly predicting rising interest rates. Areas of focus for the second half include inflation, central bank actions, geopolitical tensions, corporate cash usage, and elections.
South Florida HDI Event IT Industry Awards Celebration January 10, 2013Eddie Vidal
The Analyst of the Year and Desktop Support Technician of the Year awards are an amazing opportunity and honor for our chapter and for the eventual winner who will represent the South Florida HDI chapter. The winners will also compete at the HDI Southeast regional level.
Adobe Government Technology Livestream AgendaCarahsoft
The livestream agenda includes morning keynote speeches from 8:00-9:00am on welcome remarks and the future of mobile government. The keynote speaker is Jim Guerard, VP of Adobe Systems, who has overseen Adobe's digital media business and Creative Cloud Enterprise offering. Following is a government panel on meeting citizen expectations for mobile services. Speaker biographies are provided for Gwynne Kostin of GSA, John Landwehr of Adobe Government Solutions, Lakshmi Grama of National Cancer Institute, Lisa Wolfisch of Census Bureau, and Mike Pulsifer of Department of Labor.
Despite a bumpy ride throughout 2014, the US economy gained pace while the US equity and fixed income markets outperformed most markets around the world. This performance came with higher market volatility in the US, a rallying dollar, slowing economies in Europe and Asia, and rising geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for the sixth straight year, posting a 7.52% gain (price-only return). The S&P 500 Index rose 13.69% (including reinvested dividends), marking the third straight year in which the benchmark has returned more than 10%. The Dow closed at a record high on 38 calendar days, while the S&P 500 had 53 record closes. The non-US markets followed a much different track: All major indices logged negative performance for the year (in USD). The MSCI EAFE Index had a -4.90% return and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index a -2.19% return (net dividends, in USD). The dollar’s strong performance relative to major regional currencies contributed significantly to the lower returns for US investors.
Government bond yields fell across major markets, including the US, where many expected higher rates in response to improving economic growth and an eventual rate increase due to the end of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined to 2.17% by year-end, down from 3.03% in 2013, with lower prices boosting its return to over 4.0% for the year. The Barclays US Government Bond Index returned 4.92%. World government bonds had slightly positive returns: The Citigroup World Government Bond 1–5 Year Index (hedged) returned 1.90%.
The document summarizes the top 5 political risks in Asia according to a political risk analysis firm. The risks are: 1) escalating territorial disputes over islands in the South China Sea increasing tensions; 2) increasing risk of social unrest and crackdown in China due to inequality and economic issues; 3) risk of miscalculation by isolated North Korean regime still propped up by China; 4) potential for instability if Japan's decline reduces its role in regional security; and 5) risk of turmoil from complacency about issues like corruption, poverty and unemployment fueling social tensions.
The document provides a quarterly review and outlook from Eastgate Advisors. It summarizes key economic indicators, index returns, and Eastgate's portfolio performance for the quarter. It then analyzes factors affecting returns, discusses risks, and outlines Eastgate's strategic and tactical outlook over the next 1-3 and 3-5 years, respectively. They expect mid-single digit returns for global equities but lower returns for bonds given rising interest rates and continued low global growth and inflation.
The document discusses recent market trends and political issues in the US. It notes that gold, silver, oil prices hit multi-year highs while the US dollar fell against other currencies. Inflation increased in China but remained stable in the US. Congress passed bills to reduce the federal budget deficit. The document then summarizes a survey of baby boomers that found most are concerned about retiring as planned due to financial uncertainties.
This document provides an overview of monetary policy and the Federal Reserve. It discusses two objectives of monetary policy which are unemployment and inflation. It also discusses tools the Federal Reserve uses to implement monetary policy such as changing the discount rate and reserve ratios. The document also discusses other related topics like the federal budget, taxes, spending, deficits, and debt.
The document summarizes Washington State's export destinations in 2011. China was the top destination, receiving $11.2 billion or 17.3% of Washington's total exports. The next largest destinations were Canada, Japan, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates. Together, the top 25 export markets accounted for 87.5% of Washington's total exports. Asian markets as a whole received 46% of Washington's exports, totaling over $26 billion.
2017 Q3 ASI Wealth Management Quarterly Market ReviewSusan Langdon
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.
The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified portfolios and features a quarterly topic.
This document provides a 2019 strategic outlook from Nicola Wealth. It begins with a review of 2018, which was a challenging year for markets. Several presentations then discuss themes including four season investing patterns, concerns around debt and potential economic storms from issues like trade wars and monetary policy. The document advocates an allocation emphasizing equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. It suggests opportunities may now exist more in areas like private debt and private equity versus public markets. Overall the outlook expresses caution about extended economic and market cycles.
J.T. Mullen is the Chief Investment Strategist at Fairport Asset Management, bringing over 30 years of experience. Previously, he was the Chief Financial Officer at The Cleveland Foundation for 23 years, growing their endowment from $400 million to $1.8 billion. John Silvis is the Director of Investments at Fairport and oversees the research team and investment decisions. Richard D'Amico is the Manager of Investments and oversees fixed income models and alternative investments.
The document provides an overview of the United States economy. It notes that the US has the largest economy in the world with a GDP of $14.6 trillion and an unemployment rate of 8.6%. It discusses key sectors of the economy including services, industry, and agriculture. It also outlines US monetary and fiscal policies as well as trade balances and foreign investment. The document examines economic indicators during the 2007-2009 financial crisis and policies used to stimulate recovery.
As the Chinese authorities inject a fresh $1trn in new credit in the first quarter of 2016, Economist Marcus Wright examines this latest development and what it means for China and the world economy.
The document summarizes the current state of the global economy and forecasts what may happen in the near future. It notes that the US is entering its deepest recession in decades due to the housing market crash and falling consumer spending. However, Asian economies are less dependent on US demand and continue growing rapidly, making Asia the main driver of global economic growth. While a US recession will impact Asia, the effects are expected to be smaller than in previous downturns due to Asia's growing domestic demand and trade with other regions. Over the long run, the economic shift towards Asia will further weaken the US dollar and American influence on the global economy.
The document discusses rising consumer prices, including the price of coffee. It provides three reasons for higher coffee prices: increasing costs of fertilizer and farm goods, rising affluence in developing countries leading to higher demand, and adverse weather affecting coffee production. While core inflation remains low, food and energy prices are rising. The yield curve is also discussed as a potential indicator of future recessions.
This document provides a summary of the political and economic situation in 11 countries in the Asia Pacific region. It includes a 3-5 sentence overview of each country's economy, key economic indicators, political system, and ratings of political risk. The countries covered are China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. For each, it discusses GDP growth rates, inflation, fiscal balances, exports, investment and other indicators, as well as political leadership and relevant economic reforms or challenges.
This document summarizes a seminar presentation on recessions. It defines a recession as a temporary economic decline identified by two successive quarters of declining GDP. Recessions cause unemployment to rise and output to fall as government borrowing increases. Depression is a more severe and prolonged type of recession. The presentation examines past recessions in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and 2008. It discusses causes of recessions like overproduction, currency crises, and energy crises. Government fiscal and monetary policies for stimulating economic recovery are also outlined.
My outlook for the year, written in December last year. Overly pessimistic unfortunately but with Spanish yields now over 6%, we\'re not out of the woods yet! (Pls note I did not write the China stocks or currency section.)
The document discusses the effects of a strong US dollar on the US economy. It notes that while a strong dollar benefits consumers through lower import prices and inflation, it hurts US-based multinational corporations as their foreign profits are worth less when converted to dollars. It also negatively impacts US manufacturers and exporters as their goods become more expensive overseas, which could weigh on US economic growth given manufacturing's large GDP contribution. Overall, the strong dollar presents challenges and opportunities for different sectors of the US economy.
The document summarizes the social impacts of the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. It discusses how the crisis led to rising unemployment and inflation, a decline in real incomes and household assets, and increases in poverty levels. Vulnerable groups like women, children, the elderly and migrant workers were disproportionately affected. Governments, communities, and households implemented various responses and coping mechanisms to deal with the economic hardship caused by the crisis.
The document provides a mid-year 2014 market summary and outlook. It reviews market performance in the first half of the year, noting gains in stocks and bonds. It discusses weak economic growth in Q1 and experts wrongly predicting rising interest rates. Areas of focus for the second half include inflation, central bank actions, geopolitical tensions, corporate cash usage, and elections.
South Florida HDI Event IT Industry Awards Celebration January 10, 2013Eddie Vidal
The Analyst of the Year and Desktop Support Technician of the Year awards are an amazing opportunity and honor for our chapter and for the eventual winner who will represent the South Florida HDI chapter. The winners will also compete at the HDI Southeast regional level.
Adobe Government Technology Livestream AgendaCarahsoft
The livestream agenda includes morning keynote speeches from 8:00-9:00am on welcome remarks and the future of mobile government. The keynote speaker is Jim Guerard, VP of Adobe Systems, who has overseen Adobe's digital media business and Creative Cloud Enterprise offering. Following is a government panel on meeting citizen expectations for mobile services. Speaker biographies are provided for Gwynne Kostin of GSA, John Landwehr of Adobe Government Solutions, Lakshmi Grama of National Cancer Institute, Lisa Wolfisch of Census Bureau, and Mike Pulsifer of Department of Labor.
Seabra Fagundes - Revogação e anulamento do ato administrativo vol 3 1946.pdfadrianosoaresdacosta
1. A revogabilidade dos atos administrativos depende das circunstâncias de cada caso e não é uma regra geral. 2. Os atos são revogáveis quando não geram direitos subjetivos, e irrevogáveis quando criam direitos subjetivos. 3. A anulação de atos pela administração segue os mesmos critérios da anulação pelo poder judiciário.
The 2011 newsletter from GBM highlights:
1) GBM was named System Integrator of the year and will develop healthcare infrastructure for Bahrain's King Hamad University Hospital.
2) GBM launched the first educational cloud computing platform in Abu Dhabi and provides hardware solutions for Oman Cement Company.
3) The CEO discusses how GBM has adapted to changes in technology and customer needs, such as launching the first network operations center in the Middle East and increasing server consolidation projects.
This document summarizes the key findings from a literature review on well-being in the workplace conducted by the New Economics Foundation (NEF). The review finds that personal resources, organizational systems, functioning at work, and experience of work all influence employee well-being. Specifically, the evidence suggests that health, work-life balance, fair pay, job security, achievable jobs, management style, social value of work, skill use, development opportunities, job control, and relationships positively impact well-being at work. The review informs the development of NEF Consulting's Happiness at Work survey to help organizations assess and improve workplace well-being.
Legal and Regulatory Frameworks for Resource Diversification in Nigeria Owabor Emmanuel
This document provides an introduction and background to a study examining legal and regulatory frameworks for resource diversification in Nigeria. It discusses:
1) Nigeria's dependence on oil and efforts to diversify the economy through national development plans.
2) The problem of overdependence on oil leading to neglect of other sectors due to inadequate legal/regulatory frameworks.
3) The research questions, aim, objectives and scope of the study.
4) The significance of examining legal/regulatory frameworks to develop policies that guide business and resource use.
The document discusses sustainable packaging and waste management solutions for online retail. It outlines the objectives of ensuring alternative reuse of packaging materials, raising customer awareness of packaging waste, and designing cost-effective and eco-friendly packaging systems. It then describes the team's process, which involved primary research on packaging trends, concept ideation, user interviews to understand customer needs, creating personas and experience maps, selecting concepts, and evaluating designs for their environmental impact. The goal was to create a solution that provides a good customer experience while reducing environmental harm from packaging waste.
Juhayna Food Industries - Initiation of Coverage - 22 February 2016Omneya El Hammamy
This document initiates coverage of Juhayna Food Industries, a leading Egyptian producer and distributor of milk, juice and yogurt products. It assigns Juhayna a "Hold" rating with a fair value of EGP 6.98 per share, implying 3% upside potential. The analysis cites Egypt's growing population and consumption levels as favorable factors for the food and beverage sector. It also highlights Juhayna's market leadership positions but notes risks from fluctuating raw material costs and increasing competition. Valuation using multiples implies some undervaluation compared to global peers.
This powerpoint helps to provide the backstory to the Iliad, and illustrates the key gods in the text along with their affiliation for Greeks or Trojans.
This document describes the Government Capability Model, which defines and assesses the capabilities and maturity of government agencies. The model provides a common foundation for identifying capabilities, collaborating, and creating new capabilities to support the Government ICT Action Plan, Strategy, and Better Public Services Result Areas. It includes definitions of common, shared, and generic enterprise capabilities mapped to the Government Enterprise Architecture.
KEYNOTE: Erin McKiernan, My pledge to be open (Yeah, how’s that going?)Right to Research
KEYNOTE: Erin McKiernan, My pledge to be open (Yeah, how’s that going?)
As given at OpenCon 2015 Brussels. Marking the official launch of http://whyopenresearch.org/
The Political Context of Community-Based Prevention Research in Germanyguestc4019a
This document discusses the political context of community-based prevention research in Germany. It provides background on Germany's population, economy, and federalist structure. It then outlines key aspects of Germany's social welfare state approach to health care, including its constitutionally based role, health insurance system, and laws around prevention. It also discusses the EU's "Closing the Gap" initiative and the author's work establishing models for participatory quality assurance in community-based prevention projects.
Señalización Digital, Comunicacion Proactiva y Comunicacion InteractivaInteraxLink
Soluciones de Señalización digital, con medición de audiencia, y la posibilidad de que el sistema cambie la pauta de acuerdo a las caracteristicas de la audiencia.
The document is a presentation for a term project on air fresheners in the Indian market. It discusses the market size and segments, prominent brands and their positioning, a SWOT analysis of Dabur India and Odonil, and a proposal for Odonil to enter the car air freshener segment. It provides marketing mix details for the proposed Odonil Breeze car air freshener and reasons for choosing this brand extension, concluding with a bibliography.
El Uso de la Información de Violencia y DelincuenciaJairo Sandoval H
Este documento presenta la importancia del uso de la información sobre violencia y delincuencia para la gestión territorial de la convivencia y la seguridad ciudadana. Explica que el programa Departamentos y Municipios Seguros (DMS) de la Policía Nacional busca fortalecer la gobernabilidad local en esta materia bajo el liderazgo de las autoridades locales. El documento también describe las tres líneas de trabajo del programa DMS y su ciclo de tres fases para trabajar con las autoridades recién elegidas. El objetivo de este documento es presentar a las autoridades
South Florida HDI Event Fusion 12 Sneak Peek September 20, 2012Eddie Vidal
The Analyst of the Year and Desktop Support Technician of the Year awards are an amazing opportunity and honor for our chapter and for the eventual winner who will represent the South Florida HDI chapter. The winners will also compete at the HDI Southeast regional level.
How can you increase trust levels? What are some tips to do that? What does trust look like in healthy teams and organizations? Since trust is the foundation of success, knowing how to answer these questions is crucial. Find these answers and more!
The document provides an economic outlook and forecast for 2012 from Bill Bayer in January 2012. It discusses two possible scenarios: a continuation of a slow economic recovery ("muddling through") or a major economic crisis. The most likely scenario is continued slow growth, but periodic downturns from the European crisis and US elections. Key forecasts include moderate housing and commercial real estate growth, slow employment increases, energy prices around $100 per barrel of oil, and US GDP growth of 3-4%.
SunTrust Chief Economist Gregory Miller Briefs Chamber Members on Economic Trends
Gregory Miller, chief economist at SunTrust Bank, gave the keynote address at the 2015 Economic Outlook Briefing presented by Town of Chapel Hill Economic Development, describing trends and the latest economic issues facing the nation and the region.
As SunTrust’s chief economist, Gregory Miller analyzes the U.S. and global economies and forecasts the U.S. national economy. He advises corporate and bank boards of directors, as well as making frequent presentations to SunTrust business and wealth management clients. He sits on committees charged with interest rate setting, corporate investment, and benefits policy. He is a policy advisor for Private Wealth and Corporate Investment Banking groups.
Mr. Miller comments frequently in business media, including CNBC News, Bloomberg News, Fox Business, Reuters, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Blue Chip Financial Forecast, and other local news media platforms.
In addition to Miller’s economic forecast, Chamber President & CEO Aaron Nelson presented the results of the Chamber’s annual Economic Conditions Survey, an online survey that gauges our community’s thoughts on the current economy based on Chamber member response.
For more information, visit carolinachamber.org or contact Kristen Smith at (919) 357-9988.
###
The Chapel Hill-Carrboro (NC) Chamber of Commerce is a business leadership organization serving the greater Chapel Hill, NC community. The Chamber serves and supports the business interests of its more than 1,200 members and helps create a sustainable community where they can thrive. Chamber members employ more than 80,000 in the Research Triangle region.
Bill Bayer, financial expert and small business coach, walks through the current economic state, projecting two possible outcomes: re-enter a recession, or continue in a slow recovery.
What does the contrast between first and second quarter indicate? Will the housing market continue to rise? What happens if the European crisis continues? How does the economy affect the upcoming presidential election? What should I do with my investments and savings? How should I run my business in light of the economy? What are current unemployment rates? Does the future of our economy look better or worse?
Bill addresses questions such as these in his presentation. For more on these topics, visit his blog. www.uncommonwisdomblog.com
The economic outlook summary is as follows:
1) The US economy has slowed significantly with weak GDP growth and persistently high unemployment.
2) Even the slow recovery is threatened by the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis which could trigger a global recession.
3) Domestic consumption, a major driver of GDP, remains subdued due to high unemployment, income inequality, and households focusing on debt reduction over spending.
The 2008 Global Financial Crisis was caused by a rise and fall in housing prices, loose monetary policy by the Fed that fueled risky lending, and the collapse of major investment banks due to their leveraged positions. It led to a recession characterized by falling home values, high unemployment, declining manufacturing and automotive industries, and financial losses for colleges. However, some developing countries were less impacted. The crisis also contributed to a shift in global power towards countries like China, India, and Brazil. Governments responded by reducing interest rates, increasing spending on infrastructure, lowering taxes and boosting transfer payments, and establishing funds to provide companies with access to capital.
The subprime crisis was caused by a rise in risky mortgages given to borrowers with poor credit starting in 2007, contributing to a recession. Lenders offered many subprime loans during the mid-2000s housing boom when interest rates were low. When housing prices fell, many subprime borrowers defaulted on their loans. This caused losses for banks and mortgage companies and a freeze in the credit markets. The crisis had ripple effects across the global economy and required government intervention to stabilize markets. While the U.S. economy recovered by 2011, there were lasting impacts on household wealth and debt levels.
The document discusses the global financial crisis and its effects. It provides data and statistics on the downturn in markets, housing prices, and consumer sentiment. It also summarizes surveys conducted by Citigroup on changing consumer spending and saving habits in response to the recession. Citigroup aimed to understand shifting consumer behaviors and rebuild trust through transparency about the impacts of the crisis.
Gold may rise as market euphoria about economic recovery ends. While strong GDP growth is expected in the short term due to base effects and stimulus, optimism may be exaggerated, unemployment remains elevated, and risks remain from virus variants. Inflation is already above the Fed's 2% target according to official data, and likely even higher using alternative measures, but the Fed says price increases will be temporary. However, inflation could be more persistent given money supply increases, government spending, and pent-up demand as the economy reopens. Higher inflation would be bullish for gold as an inflation hedge.
The document discusses whether interest rate increases in 2021 could cause gold prices to plunge. It notes that real interest rates have a strong negative correlation with gold prices. While real rates could normalize somewhat as the economy recovers, there is also potential for inflation to rise due to money supply growth and pent-up demand, which could keep real rates low and support gold prices. The document concludes that several factors, including inflation expectations, money supply growth, and a dovish Fed, make higher inflation and continued gold price support more likely in 2021 than a 2013-style plunge.
YMFYP International Portfolio PowerpointRaphael_Comte
International Portfolio management through Stocktrak (US and foreign stocks, US and foreign bonds, futures, options, foreign-exchange-exposure hedging strategies)
Rinaldi's Smith School of Business Students Discuss Key Findings from Recent ...Joseph Rinaldi
Professor Joe Rinaldi has built up valuable relationships during his thirty years of capital markets and asset management experience. Giving his students access to these market leaders is a cornerstone of Professor Rinaldi's teaching strategy at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, College Park.
Professor Rinaldi and his friends at Barron’s firmly believe in combining real world experience into formal education. Professor Rinaldi stated, “This Smith/Barron’s opportunity compliments my core philosophy to educate and assist students in beginning their careers in finance and investments. Our friends at Barron’s were kind enough to waive the $1,295.00 registration fee for each of our four students to attend their “Art of Successful Investing Conference.” The event was held on October 22nd at the Metropolitan Club in New York City. It was a one-day, limited-seating event that the premier financial magazine and website publisher described as a one-of-a-kind opportunity "to see and hear from investing luminaries at one place, at one time."
Professor Rinaldi's students participated in roundtable discussions on many key topics including domestic and global economic trends, individual stock picking strategies, U.S. presidential election insights, options strategies and practiced their networking skills. They heard and learned from some of the biggest names in the investment world. The experience they gained was priceless, especially since Barron's will not be making available a broadcast, replay, or repackaging of this information.
Students in Professor Rinaldi’s Futures, Options and Derivatives class (BMGT 444) are typically seniors who are looking ahead to their next stage in life - getting a job after they graduate. They enjoyed advantaged access to many potential employers at the event like Felix Zulauf of Zulauf Asset Management; Dan Fuss, Vice Chairman of Loomis Sayles, Meryl Witmer of Eagle Capital, Pat Neal of Treepoint Capital, as well as other members of the Barron's Roundtable.
The selection of the four students was extremely competitive. The screening process included submission of résumés, GPA scores greater than 3.8/4,0, relevant work experience, and a one-on-one interview. The four students who earned attendance include; Matya Magnezi, Justin Licameli, Alex Blum and Jon Szakelyhidi.
The students co-authored a White Paper (see above) on what they had learned and presented their findings orally during the Market Color segment of Professor Rinaldi's Futures, Options and Derivatives class.
The document provides an economic outlook and risk analysis for various regions globally. Some key points:
- Global economic growth is expected to remain slow at just over 2% in 2012-2013 due to headwinds from high OECD debt levels, China's economic slowdown, and ongoing issues in the eurozone.
- The outlook is most negative for Europe, where recessions are widespread and bank deleveraging is reducing lending. Payments performance and credit risk are expected to deteriorate significantly across the region.
- Growth is also slowing in emerging markets as exports to Europe and China decline. Exchange rate volatility from the eurozone crisis poses risks, and commodity producers are concerned about falling oil prices.
Outlook 2015 - Making Sense Of The MarketsPhil Caulfield
As we approach year end, you may be wondering:
What can we expect to happen in the US Markets and the economy and how will that affect rates and house prices?
At Opes Advisors, our CEO Susan McHan has been working with our Chief Investment Officer, Mark Duvall, CFA® to help answer that question and we’ve just completed our “Outlook 2015: Making Sense of the Economy and the Current Markets.” I thought it would be beneficial to you to hear some of our current perspective.
________________________________________
Our Outlook for Interest Rates
As the graph below indicates, we have been experiencing a long term downtrend in interest rates since 1982. The rise in rates in 2013 followed by the drop in 2014 is consistent with a sideways trending market. We believe that short-term interest rates will rise slowly while longer-term interest rates will remain in a tight range below 3.2%. We expect the Fed to raise short-term rates in the first half of 2015 and longer-term rates to rise gradually.
Rates today are still low relative to long-term historical levels and within the average range of the past 3-4 years. This is important, as interest rates are a significant factor in determining home affordability. With interest rates remaining low, national and regional home affordability remains high.
Our Overall Outlook
Beyond interest rates, “Outlook 2015” captures our perspective on the following topics:
• What is our Economic Outlook for 2015 and beyond? What factors do we watch to inform our perspective?
• What factors informed our Interest rate Outlook and what factors determine whether they will rise or fall in the future?
• And importantly, how will the economy and interest rates impact our real estate markets, your business and your clients as we move into 2015 and beyond?
I would welcome the opportunity to share our complete Outlook with you. Please call me if you’d be interested in learning more about our Outlook and hearing a full presentation.
“Covering Your Local Economy” was first offered on Aug. 21, 2013, as part of the Asian American Journalists Association’s pre-conference schedule.
The economy is still the biggest story going, and these resources will equip you with the story ideas and skills you need to tackle economic stories on any beat. Get armed with the tools and understanding you need to tackle local economic stories, including those in the labor and housing markets.
WHAT YOU WILL LEARN
How to find the economic angle in stories on any beat,
How to use statistics to find and develop local economic stories,
How to find fresh angles on the job and housing markets in your town, and
What 10 stories on the economy you should jump on now.
YOUR INSTRUCTORS
Marilyn Geewax is the national economics correspondent for NPR. Geewax is regularly heard discussing economic news on Tell Me More, Talk of the Nation and Weekend Edition. Her work contributed to NPR’s 2011 Edward R. Murrow Award for Hard News for “The Foreclosure Nightmare.” Follow her on Twitter at @geewaxnpr
Meena Thiruvengadam is business channel manager at Digital First Media’s Project Thunderdome. Previously, she covered the Treasury, Federal Reserve and economic news for Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal in Washington. Follow her on Twitter at @Meena_Thiru.
SELF-GUIDED LESSON
Review the workshop materials below and discover new ways to cover local economic angles.
PowerPoint presentations
Covering Your Local Economy: It’s Everybody’s Business — Geewax
When Will the Jobs Come Back? — Geewax
What’s Happening with Housing — Geewax
10 Local Economic Stories to Jump on Now — Thiruvengadam
For more information about training for business journalists, please visit businessjournalism.org.
Mid-year housing forecast presented to the Home Builders Association of Metropolitan Portland that includes recent industry trends, the impact of COVID-19, and both structural and cyclical forces impacting the industry.
Angelic Real Estate 2014 Commercial Real Estate Capital Markets ViewGabriel Silverstein
Angelic Real Estate presentation delivered by company president Gabriel Silverstein at the Flint Oak, Kansas real estate investment summit on February 8, 2014.
The presentation includes a look back and recap of 2013, and a look forward at 2014 and beyond, including both market trend reporting and predictions and guidance. The primary focus of the presentation is commercial real estate lending and investment market activity and driving factors.
The Crisis of 2008 that hit global economyNITINPATHAK75
The Great Recession of 2008-2009 was caused by the collapse of the housing market and rise in mortgage defaults. Key events included falling housing prices from their peak in 2006, rising foreclosure rates, and a sharp downturn in the stock market from 2007 to 2009. Lax lending standards, overleveraged banks, flawed credit ratings, and growing household debt combined to create a crisis that spread worldwide as mortgage-backed securities declined in value. The recession reflected poor policy incentives such as tax breaks for mortgages and low down payment loans without accountability for lenders.
This document encourages entrepreneurs to join Agora Enterprises by visiting their website or scanning a code to fill out an initial application, after which an Agora representative will contact them, as Agora equips entrepreneurs to change the world through business.
Agora Enterprises offers resources and training to entrepreneurs who want to start businesses in developing countries to change the world. Their Global Entrepreneur Training program provides assessment, intensive weekend training, coaching, and advanced courses on topics like leadership, team building, and strategic planning. Agora also offers ongoing support services for families and helps entrepreneurs acquire funding for their businesses through its 501c3 status and private equity group.
Based on research from Gallup, Bill Bayer examines principles to help you become an iron leader: a leader who maximizes employee performance and retains quality employees.
Maximizing Employee Performance by Leading IndividuallyBill Bayer
Leading a team of employees requires individual leadership. To maximize each employee's performance and utilize their full potential, you must learn to manage them individually. Find out what motivates them, what passions and talents they have, and avoid common pitfalls that high performing employees to leave.
Mastering Change: Essential Skills to Transform Yourself and OthersBill Bayer
Mastering change may be the most essential competency for living a successful life today. Changes happen at a faster pace each year. Unlike 25-30 years ago, most people will have multiple careers in multiple organizations. Unfortunately, our educational backgrounds and cultural expectations do not prepare us for the inevitable changes that we will face.
Successful people will be those who have developed the skills and attitudes required to change in response to the unpredictable and uncertain world we live in. Successful people will excel when change occurs because their transformational skills will allow them to react quicker and maximize the opportunities that changes present.
This presentation will help you determine your level of competency for handling change. You will learn specific steps to improve your ability to deal with changes that affect you personally. You will also learn how to lead change and be equipped to lead your team and your family through changing situations.
The document provides guidance on growing revenue in an uncertain economy. It emphasizes establishing an excellent sales and marketing function to drive growth. It outlines strategies like selling more to existing customers through cross-selling or selling to new customers through proactive planning. Excellent sales requires properly selecting salespeople, having an effective sales strategy and processes, and offering products that meet market needs. Key aspects of sales covered include understanding the market and customers, building relationships with prospects, and closing and delivering on sales. The document stresses the importance of a strategic sales plan, managing sales activities, and holding salespeople accountable.
Fatal Illusions: 14 Blindspots that Can Kill Your BusinessBill Bayer
Every company has blindspots that can be fatal for the future of their business. In this presentation Bill identifies 14 such blindspots he has commonly sees in the businesses he works with. Learn what these blindspots are so that your company can avoid them.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
The Rise and Fall of Ponzi Schemes in America.pptxDiana Rose
Ponzi schemes, a notorious form of financial fraud, have plagued America’s investment landscape for decades. Named after Charles Ponzi, who orchestrated one of the most infamous schemes in the early 20th century, these fraudulent operations promise high returns with little or no risk, only to collapse and leave investors with significant losses. This article explores the nature of Ponzi schemes, notable cases in American history, their impact on victims, and measures to prevent falling prey to such scams.
Understanding Ponzi Schemes
A Ponzi scheme is an investment scam where returns are paid to earlier investors using the capital from newer investors, rather than from legitimate profit earned. The scheme relies on a constant influx of new investments to continue paying the promised returns. Eventually, when the flow of new money slows down or stops, the scheme collapses, leaving the majority of investors with substantial financial losses.
Historical Context: Charles Ponzi and His Legacy
Charles Ponzi is the namesake of this deceptive practice. In the 1920s, Ponzi promised investors in Boston a 50% return within 45 days or 100% return in 90 days through arbitrage of international reply coupons. Initially, he paid returns as promised, not from profits, but from the investments of new participants. When his scheme unraveled, it resulted in losses exceeding $20 million (equivalent to about $270 million today).
Notable American Ponzi Schemes
1. Bernie Madoff: Perhaps the most notorious Ponzi scheme in recent history, Bernie Madoff’s fraud involved $65 billion. Madoff, a well-respected figure in the financial industry, promised steady, high returns through a secretive investment strategy. His scheme lasted for decades before collapsing in 2008, devastating thousands of investors, including individuals, charities, and institutional clients.
2. Allen Stanford: Through his company, Stanford Financial Group, Allen Stanford orchestrated a $7 billion Ponzi scheme, luring investors with fraudulent certificates of deposit issued by his offshore bank. Stanford promised high returns and lavish lifestyle benefits to his investors, which ultimately led to a 110-year prison sentence for the financier in 2012.
3. Tom Petters: In a scheme that lasted more than a decade, Tom Petters ran a $3.65 billion Ponzi scheme, using his company, Petters Group Worldwide. He claimed to buy and sell consumer electronics, but in reality, he used new investments to pay off old debts and fund his extravagant lifestyle. Petters was convicted in 2009 and sentenced to 50 years in prison.
4. Eric Dalius and Saivian: Eric Dalius, a prominent figure behind Saivian, a cashback program promising high returns, is under scrutiny for allegedly orchestrating a Ponzi scheme. Saivian enticed investors with promises of up to 20% cash back on everyday purchases. However, investigations suggest that the returns were paid using new investments rather than legitimate profits. The collapse of Saivian l
Confirmation of Payee (CoP) is a vital security measure adopted by financial institutions and payment service providers. Its core purpose is to confirm that the recipient’s name matches the information provided by the sender during a banking transaction, ensuring that funds are transferred to the correct payment account.
Confirmation of Payee was built to tackle the increasing numbers of APP Fraud and in the landscape of UK banking, the spectre of APP fraud looms large. In 2022, over £1.2 billion was stolen by fraudsters through authorised and unauthorised fraud, equivalent to more than £2,300 every minute. This statistic emphasises the urgent need for robust security measures like CoP. While over £1.2 billion was stolen through fraud in 2022, there was an eight per cent reduction compared to 2021 which highlights the positive outcomes obtained from the implementation of Confirmation of Payee. The number of fraud cases across the UK also decreased by four per cent to nearly three million cases during the same period; latest statistics from UK Finance.
In essence, Confirmation of Payee plays a pivotal role in digital banking, guaranteeing the flawless execution of banking transactions. It stands as a guardian against fraud and misallocation, demonstrating the commitment of financial institutions to safeguard their clients’ assets. The next time you engage in a banking transaction, remember the invaluable role of CoP in ensuring the security of your financial interests.
For more details, you can visit https://technoxander.com.
New Visa Rules for Tourists and Students in Thailand | Amit Kakkar Easy VisaAmit Kakkar
Discover essential details about Thailand's recent visa policy changes, tailored for tourists and students. Amit Kakkar Easy Visa provides a comprehensive overview of new requirements, application processes, and tips to ensure a smooth transition for all travelers.
Discover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive Guidance36 Crypto
Learn in-depth about Dogecoin's trajectory and stay informed with 36crypto's essential and up-to-date information about the crypto space.
Our presentation delves into Dogecoin's potential future, exploring whether it's destined to skyrocket to the moon or face a downward spiral. In addition, it highlights invaluable insights. Don't miss out on this opportunity to enhance your crypto understanding!
https://36crypto.com/the-future-of-dogecoin-how-high-can-this-cryptocurrency-reach/
KYC Compliance: A Cornerstone of Global Crypto Regulatory FrameworksAny kyc Account
This presentation explores the pivotal role of KYC compliance in shaping and enforcing global regulations within the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrencies. Dive into the intricate connection between KYC practices and the evolving legal frameworks governing the crypto industry.
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
OJPs are becoming a critical resource for policy-makers and researchers who study the labour market. LMIC continues to work with Vicinity Jobs’ data on OJPs, which can be explored in our Canadian Job Trends Dashboard. Valuable insights have been gained through our analysis of OJP data, including LMIC research lead
Suzanne Spiteri’s recent report on improving the quality and accessibility of job postings to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Decoding job postings: Improving accessibility for neurodivergent job seekers
Improving the quality and accessibility of job postings is one way to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
An accounting information system (AIS) refers to tools and systems designed for the collection and display of accounting information so accountants and executives can make informed decisions.
Madhya Pradesh, the "Heart of India," boasts a rich tapestry of culture and heritage, from ancient dynasties to modern developments. Explore its land records, historical landmarks, and vibrant traditions. From agricultural expanses to urban growth, Madhya Pradesh offers a unique blend of the ancient and modern.
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptxILC- UK
ILC's Retirement Income Summit was hosted by M&G and supported by Canada Life. The event brought together key policymakers, influencers and experts to help identify policy priorities for the next Government and ensure more of us have access to a decent income in retirement.
Contributors included:
Jo Blanden, Professor in Economics, University of Surrey
Clive Bolton, CEO, Life Insurance M&G Plc
Jim Boyd, CEO, Equity Release Council
Molly Broome, Economist, Resolution Foundation
Nida Broughton, Co-Director of Economic Policy, Behavioural Insights Team
Jonathan Cribb, Associate Director and Head of Retirement, Savings, and Ageing, Institute for Fiscal Studies
Joanna Elson CBE, Chief Executive Officer, Independent Age
Tom Evans, Managing Director of Retirement, Canada Life
Steve Groves, Chair, Key Retirement Group
Tish Hanifan, Founder and Joint Chair of the Society of Later life Advisers
Sue Lewis, ILC Trustee
Siobhan Lough, Senior Consultant, Hymans Robertson
Mick McAteer, Co-Director, The Financial Inclusion Centre
Stuart McDonald MBE, Head of Longevity and Democratic Insights, LCP
Anusha Mittal, Managing Director, Individual Life and Pensions, M&G Life
Shelley Morris, Senior Project Manager, Living Pension, Living Wage Foundation
Sarah O'Grady, Journalist
Will Sherlock, Head of External Relations, M&G Plc
Daniela Silcock, Head of Policy Research, Pensions Policy Institute
David Sinclair, Chief Executive, ILC
Jordi Skilbeck, Senior Policy Advisor, Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association
Rt Hon Sir Stephen Timms, former Chair, Work & Pensions Committee
Nigel Waterson, ILC Trustee
Jackie Wells, Strategy and Policy Consultant, ILC Strategic Advisory Board
2. 2013 -Calm Before the Storm
• Topped with periodic surprises, crises
and panic
• Stronger growth than in last few years
• Unemployment will fall under 7.00%
• Housing prices will increase 5-10%
• Higher inflation during 2nd half
• Interest rates will begin to rise (finally)
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
3. 2012 Forecast Result - Overall
Forecast Result
• It won’t be the best of • It wasn’t. Election noise,
times dysfunctional government, fiscal
cliff nonsense
• But it could start the • President and Congress kicked
worst of times the can down the road
• Will we muddle through • Slow GDP growth
with the Un-Recovery • Stubborn unemployment
(75%) • Cautious businesses
• Or have a major • Did not happen. But publicity
economic crisis with the since the election brought out of
potential failure of the control US spending to the
world economic system. forefront.
(25%) • Will US deal with the issue?
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
4. 2012 Forecast Result – End of
2012 Expectation
Forecast Result
• Un-Recovery will • Correct.
continue but a somewhat
better than 2011
• European crisis & • Correct
Election will cause
periodic market drops
and recession fears
• By end of year, expect • GDP grew about 2.3% in 2012.
stronger economic • Unemployment fell to 7.8%.
growth, higher • Government bond rates rose to
employment and higher 2.4% in March but finished at
interest rates. 1.8%, same as end of 2011.
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
5. 2012 Forecast Result - Housing
Forecast Result
• Continuation of • Price growth in most markets
moderate recovery in but some key markets still not
prices improving. Up 4.3% to 5.0%
• Forecasts of strong • Existing sales up; New home
recovery in housing sales flat. Both far below 2006
starts is wishful thinking peaks. E=(-31%),N=(-72%)
• More strength to begin in • Ridgley Woods Indicator had
upper part of market fantastic year.
• It will increasingly be • Government and most prominent
accepted that housing economists have not adjusted to
market will not lead the reduced role of housing in our
recovery economy. Housing index at 34%
of peak
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
6. 2012 Forecast Result
-Commercial Real Estate
Forecast Result
• Stronger market than • Slight improvement(up 1.1%)
2011. Expect prices to Vacancies down but still at high
be stable or grow slightly level
• Apartments very strong
• Investment in low- • Opportunities dried up by
leveraged cash flow second quarter.
positive opportunities will • Long term payoff contingent on
have good payoff over US avoiding financial meltdown.
next 5-10 years
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
7. 2012 Forecast Result –
Employment
Forecast Result
• Employment will • Unemployment rate declined
continue to grow slowly slowly and ended year at 7.8%
• We will not return to • Still true
employment levels of
2007 for many years
• Businesses will struggle • Still true
to find qualified workers
• Unemployment rate will • December unemployment rate
decline to 7.5% to 8.05 was 7.8%
by end of year
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
8. 2012 Forecast Result - Energy
Forecast Result
• Energy prices will stay in • Range for year was $80-113
range around $100/brl.
• If eco growth is strong, • After economy slowed in
oil will stay over $100/brl summer, oil stayed < $100
• If weaker economy, oil in • True: Range since July was $80
$80-90 range to $100 per barrel
• Election will influence • True. Example – Canadian oil
energy policy and LT going to China while East Cost
energy supply imports oil due to lack of
pipeline
• High dividend oil stocks • Exxon - $78-93, div = 2.55%
still good investment • Con/Phillips – $50-60, 4.47%
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
9. 2012 Forecast Result - Economy
Forecast Result
• GDP growth of 3.00% to • 2.6 percent through 3rd quarter.
4.00% Probably about 2.4% for year
• Core Inflation of 2.00 to • About 1.70%
3.00%
• Higher long term interest • Up early in year but finished flat
rates to 2011 year-end
• Slightly higher short • Still near zero due to more Fed
term interest rates Reserve easing programs
• Dollar stronger due to • Dollar about the same.
high rates & Europe • Euro weak early in year,
issues finished strong; ended flat to YE
2011
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
10. 2012 Forecast Result – US Dollar
Forecast Result
• US Dollar will compare • Finished 2012 near 2011 EOY
well vs. Euro and other level. Was strongest in summer.
more risky currencies
• Dollar should remain • True
strong as hedge to
European debt issues
• US Election is key. If US • Too soon to tell. Dollar has not
starts to address debt moved since September
issues, dollar will remain
surprisingly strong. If
not . .
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
11. 2012 Forecast Result – The Markets
Forecast Result
• US will remain the world’s • Still true. Each crisis causes rise in
choice for safety since US Treasury Bond prices
is still perceived as safe. • US still “safer” than the world
• Stock market – trading • Range 12,221 to 13,661. Ended
range with upward bias. year at 12,398, up from 12,218 at
beginning of year.
Range from 10,500 to
14,000.
• Interest rates stable • Up a bit early in year. Dropped
early, increase late in year slightly after election. Flat year over
year
• Bond Prices will decline • Flat to up. Not much change year to
year
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
12. 2012 Forecast Result – China
Forecast Result
• China will continue to • Grew 7.4%; India grew 5.3%.
outgrow US, Europe, • Japan grew 0.5%; US 2.4%
India and Japan • Euro area down (-0.60%)
• But China’s long term • True. Some social unrest.
issues will start to • Demographic issues.
become known • Political change coming
• Walmartization or China- • Highly automated manufacturing in
fying the US will begin to the US is growing.
end • Some move from Walmart to Target,
etc.
• China’s modern long • True
term issues will begin to • Ironically, they have their own
challenge their culture version of class warfare – culture
and system conflicts
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
13. 2012 Forecast Result – Election
Forecast Result
• Mitt Romney will win the • Correct
Republican nomination
• Race will be over by • Correct
May 1.
• Romney will defeat Obama • Wrong. Obama won 50.6 to 47.8
with 53% of popular vote
• Republicans will increase • Wrong and Wrong. Democrats
seats in House and Senate increases seats in both houses
• Stock market will rally into • Rallied 12% from 1/1/12 until the
the election but decline in election
November and December • Ended year down 1% from election
day. Hit low 4% down from
election day in mid November.
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
14. 2012 Forecast Result – Small
Business Environment
Forecast Result
• You should be making • If not – fix your business. It is not
money in the Un-Recovery the economy’s fault
environment
• Government interference • True – more nuisance paperwork
will increase than I have ever seen in 35 years
of business
• Business climate in 2012 • True – and 2013 only marginally
will be similar to 2011 better although some industries
(defense related) are likely to get
worse.
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
15. What I missed in 2012
• US Bonds remained strong all year due to the
continued Impact of European crisis and US
recession fears. Markets ignored long term US issues.
• US Bonds continue to be the the “Risk Off”
alternative despite returns of near 0.00%
• LT and ST interest rates stayed relatively low due
to US being seen a safe haven vs. Europe
• Recession fears in the fall also kept bonds strong
• Loss of confidence in US Bonds will be a growing
in 2013 and beyond
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
16. What I missed in 2012
• Obama won 2012 election despite good Romney
campaign
• Obama used non-traditional, populist, hip(rock star)
tactics. Avoided being seen as traditional Presidential
candidate
• Obama successfully created huge voter turnout from
previously unlikely voters – Youth and Minorities
• Republican party must radically change to survive. Its
constituency is made up of groups with declining
population. Must revise message to women and
Hispanics to have a chance of survival
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
17. The 2012 Surprise Most
Relevant to 2013
• Stock market action, particularly in the second half,
suggests that the underlying market is stronger than
price action indicates.
• Smart money is buying dips during each crisis.
• This suggests smart money believes crisis are either
going to get solved or real crisis is a long way off.
• Reaction to European “solution” suggests that markets
believe debt issues will be solved gradually over time
without “Shock” to system.
• Remember – A crisis that is forecast often will not be a
crisis. Crises result from the unexpected!
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
18. 2013 Forecast - Summary
• Calm Before the Storm
• Periodic surprises, crises and panic
• Stronger growth than in the last few years
• Unemployment will fall to 6.50% - 7.00%
• Housing prices will increase 5-10%
• Higher inflation during 2 half
nd
• Interest rates will begin to rise (finally)
• Good feelings going into 2014
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
19. Possible Crisis/Panic Triggers
• Debt Ceiling negotiations
• Sequester & Continuing Resolution
• European Debt issues – Greece, Spain,
Italy
• European elections – Germany in particular
• Federal Reserve Insolvency Fear
• Long Term US Debt concerns
• Rising interest rates
• The unknown!
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
20. Don’t Overreact
• These Crises will cause short term drops
in all markets except Treasury Bonds
(and oil if Mideast crisis.)
• They represent an opportunity to add
positions in stocks, gold, commodity
related, and oil.
• Key is risk control – Set an amount to risk
and if short term crisis becomes a major
panic, GET OUT FAST
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
21. Key Learning from 2012
• European and US leaders were able to
address long term issues enough to calm
the markets and restore short term
confidence.
• Each crisis was solved near the last minute
• Markets quickly recovered sharply up
• Markets were willing to reward
governments for partial solutions that
postponed the crisis
• Markets are not looking for real solutions
that cause short term W Bayer 2013
Copyright William pain.
22. The Crisis Sequence
• An artificial deadline gains visibility -
Example – the debt ceiling
• Airwaves fill up with predictions of potential
for new recession, or government default
• Rhetoric increases; negotiations break
down
• Near, or just past the deadline, a weak ST
solution is agreed to
• Markets recover and look forward to next
crisis. Happy to not deal with the pain
required to solve the real issues
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
23. 2013 Forecast - General
• Economy will be stronger than in the last
few years. Resilience in last half of 2012
was impressive.
• Short term crises will cause sharp market
reactions but market will quickly recover
• Short term solutions will give impression
that long term issues are being
addressed
• GDP growth, housing, employment, world
economy – all are trending up
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
24. 2013 Forecast - General
• Euro-debt progress, fiscal cliff tax
compromise, and election results have
created ST certainty
• Impact of Obama Care will become better
known as the year goes on and will hover
as a thunder-cloud over small
businesses.
• Class warfare will increase as the conflict
between the Entitled and Tax Payers
increases. Expect riots and violence.
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
25. 2013 Forecast - Specifics
• Housing – Best market since 2006; Prices
up 5-10% overall. Some markets will lag
• New housing starts will increase, but still
nowhere near 2006 peak
• GDP growth about 3.0% for the full year
versus 2.20% in 2012. Second half of
2013 will grow at about 3.50–4.00%
• Unemployment will drop under 7.0% by
midyear and to about 6.5% by mid-year
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
26. 2013 Forecast - Specifics
• Inflation will remain low, under 2.0%; But
inflation pressures will increase in last half
of 2013 leading to interest rate increases
• Interest rates will remain low until fall.
Crises will cause short term runs to safety
of US Bonds when stock markets and
other “risk on” assets fall sharply
• Markets will be remarkably resilient and
drops will be buy opportunities
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
27. 2013 Forecast - Specifics
• Stock market will hit new highs on the
Dow in the first half of the year.
• Market will peak mid to later part of the
year as long term issues become greater
threat and Obama Care and other
government intervention expands its
impact.
• Reckoning day for US and European
Debt will continue to be postponed
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
28. 2013 Forecast - Specifics
• Hard assets will have a good year as
economic growth increases.
• Gold prices will fall into the first quarter
and rally in second half of the year to
$1800 to $2000 and possibly higher
• Oil prices will be in $80 to $100 range
until spring and then move above $100
per barrel. If Mideast blows, prices could
exceed $130, $150, and up to $200/brl.
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
29. 2013 Forecast - World
• China will remain strongest economy –
GDP growth of 7-8%.
• European economy will improve. Greece,
Spain, Italy will slow their contractions.
• South America and Canada will grow
• Mid-East represents serious risk due to
Syria and the probable acquisition of
nuclear capability by Iran
• US Dollar – Solid (+/- 10%) until mid-2014
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
30. Forecast – Long Term
• 2013 will be the calm before the storm. By
mid- 2014, the patchwork solutions to
excessive government spending and the
continued moderate economic growth will
cause US Debt to require an interest rate
premium.
• Annual interest expense, currently $225
billion annually, will increase and the
reality of the debt crisis will be
undeniable.
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
31. Forecast – Long Term
• Interest expense will move from the fourth
highest budget item to third highest after
Defense and Medicare.
• Overall interest rates will increase due to
government sucking up capital, concern
about debt repayment, and inflation
concerns.
• By 2014-2015, inflation and higher
interest rates are inevitable.
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
32. Recommendations
• Refinance one last time.
• Pay down debt.
• Downsize if it is in your plans.
• Build up cash and liquidity.
• Buy stocks on dips and take short term
profits when you can.
• Don’t worry about long term gains
because it is likely the stock market will
have a sharp drop in 2014 that will wipe
out most gains.
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
33. 2013 -What to Do if Crisis
Happens
• Sell all stock market holdings
• Buy treasury bonds
• Identify key employees and cut staff
wherever possible
• Preserve cash
• Cash is king in a crisis
• Reduce life style expenditures
• Act quickly and act quickly again to
reverse positions if crisis passes.
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
34. Closing Thoughts
• 2013 will be a good, but not great year.
• If you made money in 2012, you should
make more in 2013.
• Actively manage your business. Be alert.
• Implement a strong sales and marketing
function so you can grow your business –
take market share!
• Take advantage of the last chance to
refinance
• Cut marginal people.
Copyright William W Bayer 2013
35. Next Briefing-Obama Care
Action Items and Decisions
Facing Employers with the
Patient Affordable Care Act
Chris Hodges
Oasis Outsourcing
February 21, 2013