As the Chinese authorities inject a fresh $1trn in new credit in the first quarter of 2016, Economist Marcus Wright examines this latest development and what it means for China and the world economy.
The current account deficit that cried "wolf!"RBS Economics
The UK current account deficit hit a record 5.2% of GDP in 2015. Senior Economists Rupert Seggins and Marcus Wright take a look at what the current account deficit is, what has happened to it, why and what it does and does not tell us about the economy.
The US Fed has raised rates for the first time since June 2006. But was it needed? Rupert Seggins & Marcus Wright look at the following key aspects of the US economy: inflation, the labour market, growth & the global backdrop to establish whether a rate rise was necessary and some of the pros & cons of doing it now.
Growth in emerging markets is slowing. This is concerning. Senior Economist Marcus Wright considers two questions. What are the problems in emerging market economies? Why does that matter to us?
Will the US election trump the economy in 2017?RBS Economics
With the 2016 US Presidential election approach there have been questions about what this could mean for the US economy in 2017. In this blog, economist Rupert Seggins draws on the historical experience of the US and its G7 peers to offer an answer.
While this time may be different, history suggests that the bar for a President-caused US recession in 2017 is set much higher than may commonly be thought.
The current account deficit that cried "wolf!"RBS Economics
The UK current account deficit hit a record 5.2% of GDP in 2015. Senior Economists Rupert Seggins and Marcus Wright take a look at what the current account deficit is, what has happened to it, why and what it does and does not tell us about the economy.
The US Fed has raised rates for the first time since June 2006. But was it needed? Rupert Seggins & Marcus Wright look at the following key aspects of the US economy: inflation, the labour market, growth & the global backdrop to establish whether a rate rise was necessary and some of the pros & cons of doing it now.
Growth in emerging markets is slowing. This is concerning. Senior Economist Marcus Wright considers two questions. What are the problems in emerging market economies? Why does that matter to us?
Will the US election trump the economy in 2017?RBS Economics
With the 2016 US Presidential election approach there have been questions about what this could mean for the US economy in 2017. In this blog, economist Rupert Seggins draws on the historical experience of the US and its G7 peers to offer an answer.
While this time may be different, history suggests that the bar for a President-caused US recession in 2017 is set much higher than may commonly be thought.
A big reason for the stock market rally was that a lot more people started buying stocks with borrowed money. This practice, known as "trading on margin," used to be strictly regulated by the Chinese government. The new rules still included an important safeguard, though: a 2-to-1 margin requirement said that only half of invested funds could be borrowed. The investor needed to put up the rest of the funds herself. There were also restrictions on which stocks you could buy and how long the money could be borrowed — rules designed to prevent speculative mania from getting out of hand. So borrowed money flooded into the Chinese stock market between June 2014 and June 2015, helping to push stock prices up 150 percent.
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
Learn from Dun & Bradstreet’s economists as they share our 2017 global economic outlook. Discover the top five economic game changers, take a look at the short-term economic outlook and view deep-dive analyses on featured countries.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
If U.S. politics do not derail the recovery, pent-up demand can drive faster economic growth. Fixed-income outflows appear likely to continue, pushing rates higher.
D&B's 2013 mid-year Global Economic Outlook gives an update on regional insights, upgrades and downgrades for countries around the world so far in 2013, as well as a prediction for these economies through 2017.
Indian Economy: The Curious Case of Household Savings-Investment GapAshutosh Bhargava
The debate between former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers has rekindled interest on the topic of "Global Savings Glut". This article gives some interesting insights about the evolution of household savings in India and the way forward.
THIRD QUARTER 2015 RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE We’ve Seen This Movie BeforeRobert Champion
Global markets remained in turmoil as concerns regarding the global economy persisted. While much of the international focus was centred around the slowing economy in China, there were few places that investors could hide as even cash, paying little to negative interest in some parts of the world, was a relative winner in the quarter.
The Curious Case of Savings-Investment Gap and its Implications for IndiaAshutosh Bhargava
Their has been a remarkable shift in the savings-investment gap at the global level as well as in India. While this has had a tangible impact on global potential growth, the recovery is likely to differ from one country to another. In the Indian context, the recovery in trend growth is likely to be much higher than what is generally peceived and thus requires a more proactive response from policy makers, especially the monetary authorities.
Political Risk Could Undermine the Global Recovery. Review Dun & Bradstreet's research on global trade and the political risks that could impair global economic outlook. Dun & Bradstreet partners with international finance departments, World Bank Governance Indicator publications, and other global economic outlook experts to create comprehensive fiscal world view.
Western governments are hopelessly addicted to deficit financing while refusing to address looming funding issues - with apologies to the embarrassingly foolish Angela Merkel, politicians can no more successfully “battle” the markets than you and I can successfully “battle” gravity. Petrocapita is an investment trust built around the premise that demand for energy will continue to move prices higher over the long-term. Petrocapita was created to allow investors to add professionally managed oil & gas assets directly to their portfolios.
THIRD QUARTER 2016
RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE
And The Band Played On…
“When democratic governments create economic calamity, free markets get the blame.”-Jack Kemp
“Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason.”- Mark Twain
Thus far, the calamities predicted by the pundits that would result from the Brexit vote to leave the European Union have not been as severe as anticipated. Perhaps this is due to the building geopolitical and economic stresses that have diverted the focus from Brexit to other issues. Furthermore, the impact of Brexit will likely take some time to discern as the trade, migration, political and other ramifications evolve over the coming months and years. Meanwhile, governments globally continue in their efforts to stimulate economic growth with what appears to be diminishing results.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
In March 2016 we presented an update on the Australian and global economic situation and the current state of financial markets to our clients. We covered the market movements over the past 12 months, taking a look at how the underlying company fundamentals are generally better than stock prices are indicating. We also considered some of the major global issues, including the increase in debt levels in China and the prospect of higher interest rates in the United States.
"Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome" – Veripath Farmland Funds Q4 Investor Letter: Investing in a World of Financial Repression, Negative Real Rates, Valuation “Challenges” and Inflationary Forces.
Do G7 governments have an incentive to attempt to keep inflation higher for longer and real rates lower for longer? Negative real rates across a broad spectrum of credit assets are a graphic sign that we inhabit a world of financial repression orchestrated by central banks at the formal/informal behest of sovereign borrowers. In a normally functioning market, lenders do not provide capital to borrowers for negative yields – i.e., they do not pay for the privilege of lending. It goes without saying we are not in a normally functioning market.
The Credit Suisse Research Institute released its sixth annual Global Wealth Report, which focuses on how the middle class has developed since the turn of the century. It finds that the size and wealth of the middle class globally grew quickly before the financial crisis, but growth subsided after 2007 and rising inequality has squeezed its share of wealth in every region. In its analysis, Credit Suisse has taken a new approach to defining the middle class category, using a wealth-based definition – versus an income-based one – that allows for adjustments over time to reflect inflation, and also varies across countries depending on local purchasing power.
- Download the 2015 Global Wealth Report (PDF): http://bit.ly/1VPgIlc
- Order the print version of the 2015 Global Wealth Report: http://bit.ly/1K6hMVJ
Visit the Credit Suisse Research Institute website: http://bit.ly/18Cxa0p
A big reason for the stock market rally was that a lot more people started buying stocks with borrowed money. This practice, known as "trading on margin," used to be strictly regulated by the Chinese government. The new rules still included an important safeguard, though: a 2-to-1 margin requirement said that only half of invested funds could be borrowed. The investor needed to put up the rest of the funds herself. There were also restrictions on which stocks you could buy and how long the money could be borrowed — rules designed to prevent speculative mania from getting out of hand. So borrowed money flooded into the Chinese stock market between June 2014 and June 2015, helping to push stock prices up 150 percent.
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
Learn from Dun & Bradstreet’s economists as they share our 2017 global economic outlook. Discover the top five economic game changers, take a look at the short-term economic outlook and view deep-dive analyses on featured countries.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
If U.S. politics do not derail the recovery, pent-up demand can drive faster economic growth. Fixed-income outflows appear likely to continue, pushing rates higher.
D&B's 2013 mid-year Global Economic Outlook gives an update on regional insights, upgrades and downgrades for countries around the world so far in 2013, as well as a prediction for these economies through 2017.
Indian Economy: The Curious Case of Household Savings-Investment GapAshutosh Bhargava
The debate between former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers has rekindled interest on the topic of "Global Savings Glut". This article gives some interesting insights about the evolution of household savings in India and the way forward.
THIRD QUARTER 2015 RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE We’ve Seen This Movie BeforeRobert Champion
Global markets remained in turmoil as concerns regarding the global economy persisted. While much of the international focus was centred around the slowing economy in China, there were few places that investors could hide as even cash, paying little to negative interest in some parts of the world, was a relative winner in the quarter.
The Curious Case of Savings-Investment Gap and its Implications for IndiaAshutosh Bhargava
Their has been a remarkable shift in the savings-investment gap at the global level as well as in India. While this has had a tangible impact on global potential growth, the recovery is likely to differ from one country to another. In the Indian context, the recovery in trend growth is likely to be much higher than what is generally peceived and thus requires a more proactive response from policy makers, especially the monetary authorities.
Political Risk Could Undermine the Global Recovery. Review Dun & Bradstreet's research on global trade and the political risks that could impair global economic outlook. Dun & Bradstreet partners with international finance departments, World Bank Governance Indicator publications, and other global economic outlook experts to create comprehensive fiscal world view.
Western governments are hopelessly addicted to deficit financing while refusing to address looming funding issues - with apologies to the embarrassingly foolish Angela Merkel, politicians can no more successfully “battle” the markets than you and I can successfully “battle” gravity. Petrocapita is an investment trust built around the premise that demand for energy will continue to move prices higher over the long-term. Petrocapita was created to allow investors to add professionally managed oil & gas assets directly to their portfolios.
THIRD QUARTER 2016
RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE
And The Band Played On…
“When democratic governments create economic calamity, free markets get the blame.”-Jack Kemp
“Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason.”- Mark Twain
Thus far, the calamities predicted by the pundits that would result from the Brexit vote to leave the European Union have not been as severe as anticipated. Perhaps this is due to the building geopolitical and economic stresses that have diverted the focus from Brexit to other issues. Furthermore, the impact of Brexit will likely take some time to discern as the trade, migration, political and other ramifications evolve over the coming months and years. Meanwhile, governments globally continue in their efforts to stimulate economic growth with what appears to be diminishing results.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
In March 2016 we presented an update on the Australian and global economic situation and the current state of financial markets to our clients. We covered the market movements over the past 12 months, taking a look at how the underlying company fundamentals are generally better than stock prices are indicating. We also considered some of the major global issues, including the increase in debt levels in China and the prospect of higher interest rates in the United States.
"Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome" – Veripath Farmland Funds Q4 Investor Letter: Investing in a World of Financial Repression, Negative Real Rates, Valuation “Challenges” and Inflationary Forces.
Do G7 governments have an incentive to attempt to keep inflation higher for longer and real rates lower for longer? Negative real rates across a broad spectrum of credit assets are a graphic sign that we inhabit a world of financial repression orchestrated by central banks at the formal/informal behest of sovereign borrowers. In a normally functioning market, lenders do not provide capital to borrowers for negative yields – i.e., they do not pay for the privilege of lending. It goes without saying we are not in a normally functioning market.
The Credit Suisse Research Institute released its sixth annual Global Wealth Report, which focuses on how the middle class has developed since the turn of the century. It finds that the size and wealth of the middle class globally grew quickly before the financial crisis, but growth subsided after 2007 and rising inequality has squeezed its share of wealth in every region. In its analysis, Credit Suisse has taken a new approach to defining the middle class category, using a wealth-based definition – versus an income-based one – that allows for adjustments over time to reflect inflation, and also varies across countries depending on local purchasing power.
- Download the 2015 Global Wealth Report (PDF): http://bit.ly/1VPgIlc
- Order the print version of the 2015 Global Wealth Report: http://bit.ly/1K6hMVJ
Visit the Credit Suisse Research Institute website: http://bit.ly/18Cxa0p
A presentation/conversation to be provided by Dr Bex Lewis and Dr David Rush at the Hertfordshire Blended Learning Conference, 17th June 2010. You'll have to come along to see what we actually say alongside it!
Este slide explicita las principales características de juego del LUDOPARCIAL: Modalidad de juego, tipo de turnos, tipo de preguntas, puntuación, condiciones de victoria, etc.
In our November planning and development club we covered:
- Highways Act tips for developers
- HCA Government house building initiatives and land supply
- planning considerations in a retail context.
This is an older presentation but still one of my favourites of all time, exploring the use of gaming mechanics (now called 'gamification') on intranets. It included a 'game' to keep people's attention and have a bit of fun; spot how many of the pop-up Mario faces (only the little ones around the edges of the screen) were used during the presentation. We typically gave out an iTunes voucher to the winner.
This presentation was evolved from the similar article I published in 2010: Enhancing the intranet with game theory and gaming mechanics.
Presentation by Toshiya Tsugami, President of Tsugami Workshop, Ltd., at the IAI conference "Xi Jinping’s China: Are Japan and Europe on the same page?" organised in cooperation with the Japanese Embassy in Rome
China's economy: slowing distorted and debt-addictedRBS Economics
China's economy is slowing. It's policy makers are having to contend with a massive debt-fuelled investment binge and the need to implement necessary reforms to rebalance the economy.
Senior Economist Marcus Wright goes behind the headlines with this stock take that sets out the main economic challenges facing China.
China scares us because it looks like a bubble economy. Understanding these kinds of bubbles is important because
they represent a situation in which standard valuation methodologies may fail. Just as financial stocks gave a false
signal of cheapness before the GFC because the credit bubble pushed their earnings well above sustainable levels
and masked the risks they were taking, so some valuation models may fail in the face of the credit, real estate, and general fixed asset investment boom in China, since it has gone on long enough to warp the models’ estimation of
what “normal” is.
Here is a brief look at China including debt, public policies, transparency, trade, etc.
China has become a world leader as such it is important for the countries around the world to review their relationships with China.
China is very important economy due the size of its population along with trade with the world. China needs to be push to make changes in terms of environment, land management, urban planning, health and safety, food inspection, forestry management and water management. Key organizations like WHO, UN, WTO, etc need to do more audits to ensure China is following the rules.
Ultimo informe elaborado por Atradius Crédito y Caución, sobre las economías de Asia-Pacífico, donde se analizan los plazos de pago y las previsiones de insolvencias para 2017
China’s turning to “tough gradualism” in discipling local government borrowin...Terry Zhang
HONG KONG, 17 Jan 2018. Pengyuan International has released a research report, titled “China’s Turning To “Tough Gradualism” In Disciplining Local Government Borrowing Foretells Higher Risk of LGFV Default”. This research report is accessible via the link: http://www.pyrating.com/CreditResearch.
The first default on public bond of local government financing vehicles in China (LGFVs) could possibly happen in 2018, although the odds are still less than 50% according to a report published today by Pengyuan International titled “China’s Turning To ‘Tough Gradualism’ In Discipling Local Government Borrowing Foretells Higher Risk of LGFV Default”.
The central government of China launched recently a three-year critical battle against financial risks. Allowing LGFV default (“shock therapy”) may become a policy choice to dispel investor belief in implicit government support to LGFVs and thus help tame hidden local government borrowing, which occurred primarily through LGFVs.
“We believe Chinese government is turning to ‘tough gradualism’ rather than “shock therapy” in disciplining local government borrowing”, said Liang Zhong, analyst of Pengyuan International, “in another word, the central government is likely to tighten relevant discipline gradually, bearing in mind the needs to balance between achieving growth target and securing financial stability”.
The report argues that the “tough gradualist approach” means some type of credit events could happen before the others. For instance, the first default on public bond by LGFV sector in onshore market is likely to precede LGFV default on public bond in offshore.
As the risk of LGFV default rises, greater scrutiny of LGFV creditworthiness becomes increasingly necessary, including scrutinizing provincial economic and fiscal data according to the report.
“If China’s central government adheres to ‘tough gradualism’, namely tightening discipline steadily over local government borrowing, there it is good chance that the once relentless hidden LGT borrowing could be tamed markedly within three years.” Said Mr. Zhong.
ANALYSTS CONTACT
Mr. Liang Zhong
+852 3596 6140
liang.zhong@pyrating.com
MEDIA CONTACT
media@pyrating.com
OTHER ENQUIRIES
contact@pyrating.com
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
NO1 Uk Black Magic Specialist Expert In Sahiwal, Okara, Hafizabad, Mandi Bah...Amil Baba Dawood bangali
Contact with Dawood Bhai Just call on +92322-6382012 and we'll help you. We'll solve all your problems within 12 to 24 hours and with 101% guarantee and with astrology systematic. If you want to take any personal or professional advice then also you can call us on +92322-6382012 , ONLINE LOVE PROBLEM & Other all types of Daily Life Problem's.Then CALL or WHATSAPP us on +92322-6382012 and Get all these problems solutions here by Amil Baba DAWOOD BANGALI
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Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
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China: kicking the can down the road
1. China: kicking the can
down the road
Marcus Wright, RBS Economics, April 2016
1
2. Information classification: Public/Internal/Confidential/Secret 2
What’s this all about?
• China has reverted to what it knows best – engineering a credit boom to
support investment.
• It will likely delay China’s hard-landing.
• But only temporarily. China has been getting less growth bang for its credit buck
since the crisis.
• It doesn’t change our fundamental view of China’s economy – it remains beset
by major problems including over-capacity in key sectors and hidden non-
performing loans in the banking sector. The proverbial can is being kicked
down the road.
• It’s a short-term positive for the global economy. It might make 2016 “okay, but
not great” rather than deteriorate further. But it won’t be enough to throw
lower for longer off track.
• China’s medium-term financial stability risks have increased. And the UK is
financially exposed.
3. Information classification: Public/Internal/Confidential/Secret 3
• China has engineered yet another
credit boom to arrest the sharp
drop in growth.
• New financing into the economy in
Q1 was the strongest on record.
• If all that financing was an economy
on its own it would be the world’s
16th biggest, not far off the size of
Mexico.
• While we previously stated that
policy making was not calibrated to
the economy’s needs it has now
shifted even further away from
what is desired.
• The proverbial can is being kicked
down the road.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
China Q1 New Financing v Economy
Ranking
($ Bn)
China - Q1 2016 New Financing
Source: Bloomberg , IMF
1. China has reverted to what it knows best
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
China - New Financing
(Yuan Bn)
Source: Bloomberg
4. Information classification: Public/Internal/Confidential/Secret 4
• China is locked into a credit-
intensive form of growth.
• The credit binge is being supported
by fiscal expansion - the planned
fiscal deficit for 2016 will be the
biggest in at least 34 years.
• China on the face of it has plenty of
room for fiscal expansion. Public
debt is merely 30% of GDP.
• But that excludes local government
debt. It could be as well over twice
the 30% figure.
• And the government will likely have
to pay for a significant banking
sector bailout in the coming years.
2. It’s the third distinctive credit wave since the crisis,
and it’s supported by fiscal expansion
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
China - Fiscal Balance
(% of GDP)
Source: IMF, China NPC
2016 Target
announced at
NPC
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
China - Monthly
New Financing
(Yuan Bn)
Source: Bloomberg
1. Post-Crisis
Response
2. The post-crisis
response credit
pick-me-up
3. 2016
Boom
5. Information classification: Public/Internal/Confidential/Secret 5
• The renewed credit deluge seems
to have arrested the decline in
growth.
• After slowing significantly in
2015, much more than the
headline figures suggest, China’s
growth may have bottomed,
temporarily at least.
• Real estate and infrastructure
investment growth rates have
risen into Q1.
• Even steel seems to be on the up.
• The usual build-up of steel
inventories over the winter was
much less than usual. And it’s
already being drawn down.
3. It seems to have got traction
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
China - Fixed Asset Investment
(% Y/Y Change)
Real Estate
Infrastructure
Manufacturing
Source: Bloomberg
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
China - Steel
Futures
(CNY)
Source: Bloomberg
0
100
200
300
400
500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
China - Winter Steel
Inventory Build
(Rebar)
Source: Bloomberg
6. Information classification: Public/Internal/Confidential/Secret 6
• The authorities have engineered yet
another house price boom.
• Easier credit and a reduction in the
required deposits for first-home
buyers (from 25 to 20%) and second
home buyers (from 40 to 30%) have
helped.
• House prices in the largest cities
(Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen,
Guangzhou) rose a staggering
30%y/y in March.
• But the market remains afflicted by
oversupply.
• China’s house prices are prone to
wild swings. The next downturn is
unlikely to be too far away.
4. House prices are on the rise but…..
-10
0
10
20
30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
China House Prices
(Newly Built, % Y/Y Change)
Tier 1 Cities Tier 2 Cities Tier 3 Cities Source: Bloomberg
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20 China - House Prices v
Floor Space for Sale
House Prices (All Cities - % Y/Y Change) - LHS
Residential Floor Space for Sale (10,000sqm) - RHS
Source: Bloomberg
7. Information classification: Public/Internal/Confidential/Secret 7
• China’s post-crisis credit waves have
been getting less growth bang for
their buck.
• More and more capital is needed to
produce an extra unit of output.
• The return on capital has been
declining steadily since the crisis, as
it has across emerging markets as a
whole.
• So there are doubts about how long
this latest growth fillip will last.
• It could fizzle out before the end of
the year.
5. Less growth bang for its credit buck
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
China - Incremental Capital
Output Ratio
Source: OECD
4
6
8
10
12
14
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
MSCI China - Return on Capital
(%)
Source: Bloomberg
8. Information classification: Public/Internal/Confidential/Secret 8
The economy remains beset by:
• an excessive reliance on investment to drive growth
• a structurally low share of GDP going to household incomes
• over-capacity in key sectors
• hidden non-performing loans in the banking sector
• ad-hoc, reactive policy-making that fails to address the underlying
distortions in the economy – the transition to a less debt-addicted,
less investment-driven growth model remains some way off
6. It doesn’t change our view on China
9. Information classification: Public/Internal/Confidential/Secret 9
• China’s rapid debt build-up has been
matched by sharp rise in the cost of
servicing that debt.
• It is widely agreed that China’s banks
are sitting on non-performing loans
well in excess of official figures. But
estimating the true size of the
problem is very difficult.
• Our own estimate is the NPL ratio is
around 25%. In the most pessimistic
scenario NPLs are closer to 35%.
• We maintain the view that China
won’t experience an out and out
crisis.
7. A more painful day of reckoning awaits
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
China - Debt to GDP
and Debt Servicing (%)
Household and Corporate Debt as % of GDP - LHS
Debt Servicing as Share of GDP (%) - RHS Source: BIS, Bloomberg
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Reported Optimistic Central Pessimistic
China - Estimating Banking Sector
NPL Ratio (%)
Source: IMF, Penn World Tables, Bloomberg, Macrobond, RBS Economics
10. Information classification: Public/Internal/Confidential/Secret
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Financial Exposure
to Ch & HK ($ Bn)
World UK
Source: Macrobond 10
But the consequences of its credit boom will be
far from painless. In the coming years we think
China will experience:
• a balance-sheet recession (the debt
hangover) as debt-burdened corporates
prioritise debt minimisation;
• an impaired (eventually) banking system,
constraining the reallocation of credit and
productivity growth;
• a hangover of misallocated labour from the
financial boom, also constraining
productivity growth;
• an inadequate reform effort.
Our ‘not a blow-up, but many difficult years’
view on China remains.
8. China’s challenging future
The risk from financial exposures
• It’s too early to tell whether global financial
exposures to China have increased in recent
months in tandem with the credit boom.
• But even if it hasn’t, the latest credit deluge
increases medium-term financial stability
risks in China.
• The UK’s exposure to China is a concern.