In the latest Ipsos MORI Scotland poll for STV News, Ipsos MORI found that the SNP party has a strong lead over Labour in voting intentions for Holyrood. Among those who told us that they would be ‘certain’ to vote in an immediate Scottish Parliament election, 57% say they would cast their constituency vote for the SNP, while 23% would back Scottish Labour, 8% would vote for the Scottish Conservatives and 6% for the Scottish Liberal Democrats. This gives the SNP a 34-point lead over Labour.

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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
October 2014

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Scottish Parliament voting

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Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?
Holyrood – voting intention - constituency vote
Base: All giving a voting intention = 928; all certain to vote = 750. Data collected among 1,026 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd – 29th October 2014
SNP 55%
Lab 24%
Cons 9%
Lib Dem 7%
Others 5%
All giving a voting intention
SNP 57%
Lab 23%
Cons 8%
Lib Dem 6%
Others 5%
Certain to vote
SNP lead +31
SNP lead +34

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If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Labour
SNP
Conservative
Liberal Democrats
Other
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
Holyrood –constituency vote trend

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Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your second vote?
Holyrood – voting intention - list vote
Base: All giving a voting intention = 918; all certain to vote = 746. Data collected among 1,026 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd – 29th October 2014
SNP 47%
Lab 24%
Cons 9%
Lib Dem 7%
Others
3%
Green 10%
All giving a voting intention
SNP 50%
Lab 23%
Cons 8%
Lib Dem 6%
Others 3%
Green 10%
Certain to vote
SNP lead +23
SNP lead +27

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Technical details
•This presents the topline results from Scotland
•Results are based on a survey of 1,026 respondents (adults aged 18+) conducted by telephone
•Fieldwork dates: 22nd – 29th October 2014
•Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data
•Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories
•Results are based on all respondents (1,026) unless otherwise stated

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Thank you
mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269
@IpsosMORIScot