This document summarizes the Ipsos MORI end of year review event. It includes an agenda with speakers such as the CEO of Ipsos MORI and the Director-General of the Department for Communities and Local Government. It also summarizes findings from Ipsos MORI polls on topics like the economy, austerity, Europe, and attention spans. Key results showed people feel austerity is the new normal but underestimate cuts, most want to stay in the EU but are unsure of the outcome, and attention spans have decreased significantly over time.

1. 1
WELCOME.
THE IPSOS MORI
END OF YEAR REVIEW#ipsosmorilive

2. 2
BEN PAGE,
CEO, Ipsos MORI
LORD (VICTOR) ADEBOWALE,
CEO, Turning Point
LOUISE CASEY,
Director-General, DCLG
TREVOR PHILLIPS,
President, John Lewis
Partnership Council
Q&A
AGENDA
FEDERICA COCCO,
The Times

3. 3

4. 4
PERILS OF PERCEPTION 2015
A 33 COUNTRY STUDY

5. 5PERILS OF PERCEPTION |
WHAT PROPORTION OF
TOTAL HOUSEHOLD WEALTH
DO YOU THINK THE
WEALTHIEST 1% OWN?
Actual… Guess…
23% 59%
53%70%

6. 6PERILS OF PERCEPTION |
Should…
20%
27%
WHAT PROPORTION OF
TOTAL HOUSEHOLD WEALTH
DO YOU THINK THE
WEALTHIEST 1%
SHOULD OWN?
Actual…
23%
23%

7. 7PERILS OF PERCEPTION |
OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE
AGED 20 YEARS OR OVER
HOW MANY DO YOU THINK
ARE EITHER OVERWEIGHT
OR OBESE?
Guess…
62% 44%
28%71%
Actual…

8. 8PERILS OF PERCEPTION |
Guess…Actual…
14%
49%
OUT OF EVERY 100
YOUNG ADULTS AGED 25-34
ABOUT HOW MANY
LIVE WITH THEIR PARENTS?
43%
61%

9. 9PERILS OF PERCEPTION |
WHAT PERCENTAGE OF
POLITICIANS ARE WOMEN?
Guess…Actual…
29%
42%
23%
26%

10. 10
NOT JUST TO POKE FUN
We struggle with maths...
– and we’re thinking “fast”…
Emotional Innumeracy…
Inductive Generalization…
Rational Ignorance…
Read, enjoy, take our fun quiz!
AT OUR IGNORANCE…

11. 11
BEN PAGE.
CEO, IPSOS MORI.
THE IPSOS MORI
END OF YEAR REVIEW.#ipsosmorilive

12. 12
WAS 2015 A GOOD OR A BAD YEAR?
45% good
26% bad
27% good
37% bad
for you and your family
for Britain

13. 13
POLLSTERS HAVE HAD BETTER YEARS…

14. 14
THOUGH THE EXIT POLL WAS RIGHT
– AGAIN…
Asking what did do,
rather than what will…
LABOUR
PARTY
LIBERAL
DEMOCRATS
SNP
UKIP
GREEN
PARTY
OTHERS
CONSERVATIVE
PARTY
Exit poll 316
Result 331
Exit poll 239
Result 232
Exit poll 10
Result 8
Exit poll 58
Result 56
Exit poll 2
Result 1
Exit poll 2
Result 1
Exit poll 23
Result 21

15. 15
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
47%46%
7%
39%
53%
7%
CONSERVATIVES’ MESSAGE ON HAVING THE
RIGHT LONG-TERM ECONOMIC PLAN
In the long term, this
government’s policies will
improve the state of
Britain’s ECONOMY
On balance, do you agree
or disagree with the
following statement?
Q
MARCH 2012 MARCH 2015
Base: 1,025 British adults 18+, 8th -11th March 2015
AGREE DISAGREE DON’T KNOW
FINALLY CUT THROUGH.

16. 16
Since MORI started polling, no leader
has become Prime Minister with a
satisfaction rating at the start of the
election year as low as Ed Miliband’s
26% in January 2015 – the lowest
January rating for a winning PM has
been Tony Blair’s 33% satisfied
in 2005.
ELECTION FACTS

17. 1717
… and losing
• 18-34s
• Social class DE
• Private and social
renters
• BME voters
winning amongst
So Labour ended
groups who
don’t vote:
amongst those
who do…
• Over 65s
• ABC1s

18. 18
37
26
19
21
15
28
22
22
19
26
34
40
24
39
63
33
42
22
24
30
32
44
35
37
Foot - Jan '81
Kinnock - Dec '83
Major - Feb '91
Smith - Sep '92
Blair - Oct '94
Hague - Aug '97
Duncan Smith - Nov '01
Howard - Jan '04
Cameron - Mar '06
Brown - Sep '07
Miliband - Dec '10
Corbyn - Nov '15
% Dissatisfied % Satisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitorc. 1,000 British adults aged 18+ each month
NOW HOW DOES THE
NEW GUY COMPARE?
How satisfied or dissatisfied
Q
is doing their job as
are you with the way ….
Prime Minister/leader of
the xx party?
THIRD MONTH RATINGS

19. 19
WHAT DID WE
THE WINTER CRISIS IN THE NHS,
THEN IMMIGRATION
ECONOMY A LINGERING CONCERN
HOUSING BUBBLING UNDER, AND LOW PAY
WHO REMEMBERS CRIME?
WORRY ABOUT?

20. 20
IN THE LAST
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues IndexBase: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Nov
2005
Nov
2006
Nov
2007
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2011
Nov
2012
Nov
2013
Nov
2014
Nov
2015
*Up until September 2014 the code was race relations/immigration/immigrants
NHS CRIME/LAW & ORDER ECONOMYIMMIGRATION* HOUSING
TEN YEARS…
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

21. 21
ARE WE OPTIMISTIC OR
PESSIMISTIC FOR 2016?
49% optimistic
19% pessimistic
29% optimistic
37% pessimistic
for you and your family
for Britain

22. 22
THE AUSTERITY
WE DON’T LIKE IT, BUT ARE WE
LEARNING TO LIVE WITH IT?
YEARS.

23. 23
ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,021 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th November
IS FALLING AGAIN.
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Oct1997
May1998
Dec1998
Jul1999
Feb2000
Sep2000
Apr2001
Nov2001
Jun2002
Jan2003
Aug2003
Mar2004
Oct2004
May2005
Dec2005
Jul2006
Feb2007
Sep2007
Apr2008
Nov2008
Jun2009
Jan2010
Aug2010
Mar2011
Oct2011
May2012
Dec2012
Jul2013
Feb2014
Sep2014
Apr2015
Nov2015
-9
improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

24. 24
BUT ARE WE GETTING USED TO THE NEW NORMAL?
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015
8%
8%
25%
15%
49%
39%
10%
37%
8%
2%
November 2012
August 2015
A great deal A fair amount Not very much Not at all Don't know
BIG INCREASE IN THOSE SAYING
BY CUTS.
NOT AFFECTED
As you may know, the government has announced a number of spending cuts to
help reduce the national debt To what extent, if at all, have you and your family been
affected by the cuts so far?
23%
33%
76%
59%
Source: Ipsos MORI

25. 25
MORE REALISTIC ABOUT AUSTERITY
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 (2012 survey online among 16-75 year olds)
OR MORE INNURED TO IT?
And what proportion of the government’s planned cuts to public spending do you
think have been carried out so far?
Source: Ipsos MORI
November 2012
August 2015
40%
28%

26. 26PERILS OF PERCEPTION |
ACTUAL LEVELS OF PUBLIC SPENDING
WE UNDERESTIMATE THE EXTENT OF CUTS TO
WE ARE ALSO WRONG ON
HOUSING, EDUCATION, TRANSPORT & POLICING
AVERAGE GUESS 2% CUT OVER 5 YEARS
ACTUAL 13% INCREASE IN REAL TERMS
AVERAGE GUESS 3% CUT OVER 5 YEARS
ACTUAL 4% INCREASE IN REAL TERMS

27. 2727
MANY SERVICES
HOLDING UP

28. 28
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mar-02
Oct-02
May-03
Dec-03
Jul-04
Feb-05
Sep-05
Apr-06
Nov-06
Jun-07
Jan-08
Aug-08
Mar-09
Oct-09
May-10
Dec-10
Jul-11
Feb-12
Sep-12
Apr-13
Nov-13
Jun-14
Jan-15
Aug-15
BUT BIG INCREASES IN CONCERN
Source: Ipsos MORIBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
FOR THE FUTURE OF THE NHS AND POLICE.
Thinking about the quality of THE NHS/the way your area is policed
over the next few years do you expect it to…?
35
Policing
NHS
% get worse
55

29. 29
EUROPE.
WILL WE FINALLY
DECIDE IN 2016?

30. 30
WE STILL WANT TO STAY IN – BUT ONLY
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 523 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015
JUST, AND HISTORY SHOWS HOW
If there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay in or get out of the
European Union, how would you vote?
MUCH IT CAN CHANGE
26%
60% 63%
52% 49%
53% 51%
41%
61%
52%
65%
29% 27%
36% 35% 32%
39%
49%
27%
39%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jul-77
Oct-79
Jan-82
Apr-84
Jul-86
Oct-88
Jan-91
Apr-93
Jul-95
Oct-97
Jan-00
Apr-02
Jul-04
Oct-06
Jan-09
Apr-11
Jul-13
Oct-15
STAY IN GET OUT

31. 31
ALTHOUGH “IN” VOTERS MOST CONFIDENT
Source: Ipsos MORIBase: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015 (570 remain voters/348 leave voters)
IN THE OUTCOME
Thinking ahead to the referendum on European Union membership, which of the
following outcomes do you think is most likely?
76%
19%
5%
44%
47%
9%BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO
REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE
EUROPEAN UNION
BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO
LEAVE THE EUROPEAN
UNION
DON’T KNOW
Remain voters Leave voters

32. 32
WE ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT A
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015 (570 remain voters/348 leave voters)
TERRORIST ATTACK.
% saying “very/somewhat real threat”
Change since
October 2015
75%
+14
95%
+10
91%
+10
 Ipsos global advisor: November 2015

33. 33
AND A MAJORITY NOW THINK ‘DOING
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015 (570 remain voters/348 leave voters)
NOTHING’ IN SYRIA IS WORSE THAN
% saying “very/somewhat real threat”
 Ipsos global advisor: November 2015
30%
-28
The problems of Syria are none
of our business and we should
not interfere
54%
+14
Doing nothing in Syria would be
worse than taking military
action
79%
+2
Taking military action in Syria
will encourage attacks on Britain
and the West
MILITARY ACTION.
% saying “strongly/tend to agree”
Ipsos global advisor: November 2015

34. 34
WE’VE BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE HARDLINE
Base: 1,021 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015 (570 remain voters/348 leave voters)
ON REFUGEES.
% agreeing “We must close our borders to refugees
entirely—we can’t accept any at this time”
Change since
October 2015
33%
-1
44%
+5
48%
+2
Ipsos global advisor: November 2015

35. 35
BUT IT HASN’T MADE US
MORE ANTI-IMMIGRATION.
EVEN THOUGH WE STILL
GET IT WRONG

36. 36
HOW MUCH TIME
DO I HAVE?
ARE YOU STILL PAYING
ATTENTION?

37. Title – line 1
37
Source: Statistic Brain
A (SHORT) HISTORY
OF ATTENTION SPANS
2000
12
secs
Today
8
secs
9
secs

38. 38
3 mph
17 days
1,100 miles
Battle of Trafalgar
1805
13 mph
13 days
3,674 miles
Assassination of
Abraham Lincoln
1865
4,147,920
mph
5 seconds
5,761 miles
Germany wins World Cup
2014
MORE SPEED

39. Title – line 1
39
15 h media asked for and
delivered to consumers
on mobile devices and
to their homes every
day
MORE INFORMATION

40. 40
Source: Ipsos IPA TouchPoints5
More multi-screening
End of Year Event 2015

41. 41Document Name Here | Month 2015 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
Source: Adventures in Retail: The other line is faster, Brand Perfect, November 2012
A 2 second delay in transaction results
causes a 25% increase in abandonment

42. 42
2 million people
subscribed to Kylie
Jenner’s app in its first
week. Adding to over
40m followers on
Instagram and 12m
on Twitter….
DO YOU KNOW
WHO YOU ARE UP AGAINST?

43. 43
So more connected
But more distracted
More information
But no cleverer!
More worried
But more getting used to it?
Merry Xmas!

44. © 2015 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
44
NOW
THE IPSOS MORI
END OF YEAR REVIEW
#ipsosmorilive
DRINK!!