Support for independence bounces back: As we enter the final nine months of campaigning before next year’s referendum, our latest poll for STV News will provide a boost for those arguing in favour of Scotland becoming an independent country. Among those certain to vote in next year’s referendum, 34% would vote ‘Yes’ if the referendum were held now (up by three percentage points from September 2013) while 57% would vote ‘No’ (down two points) and 10% are undecided.

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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
December 2013
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Independence referendum
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Referendum voting intention
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Certain to vote
All voters
Undecided
Undecided
10%
Yes
14%
34%
31%
‘Yes’ Change
since
September
+3
‘Yes’
Change
since
55%
57%
No
Yes
No
Base: All = 1,006; all certain to vote = 803. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013
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Referendum voting intention – recent trend
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes
70%
No
Undecided
60%
57%
50%
40%
34%
30%
20%
10%
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
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Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
0%
10%

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Voting intention excluding ‘don’t knows’
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Certain to vote
All voters
Yes
Yes
36%
37%
64%
63%
No
No
Base: All = 864; all certain to vote = 727. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013
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Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and
definitely decided how they will vote
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes
All definitely decided and certain to vote
No
80%
Yes
63%
Yes Change
since
September
+4
63%
60%
37%
No
40%
37%
20%
0%
Feb-13
Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (580). Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
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May-13
Sep-13
Dec-13

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Floating voters
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
All undecided – inclined to vote
All giving a voting intention but
may change their mind
Undecided
27%
Yes
37%
38%
63%
No
34%
No
Base: All giving a voting intention but may change their mind (203); all undecided (138). Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 29th
November – 5th December 2013
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Yes

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Support for independence – long-term trend
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Support for independence (%)
60
50
Scottish Parliament opens
Introduction of the poll tax
in Scotland
Devolution referendum
SNP form majority
government
40
30
20
SNP form minority
government
Edinburgh
Agreement
signed
10
Devolution referendum
Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)
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2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
0

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Voting intention by gender
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% voting Yes
Men
50%
41%
52%
27%
40%
61%
30%
20%
10%
40%
0%
Yes
No
Base: All certain to vote = 803. Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013
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Women

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Voting intention by age group
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% voting Yes
34%
16-24*
30%
16-24
11%
25-34
35-54
70%
25-34
60%
59%
56%
50%
40%
30%
20%
40%
29%
10%
10%
35-54
50%
9%
55+
0%
62%
Yes
No
*Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds
Base: All certain to vote = 803. Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013
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55+

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Voting intention by levels of deprivation
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% voting Yes
Most deprived areas
70%
60%
47%
68%
50%
40%
30%
45%
26%
20%
10%
Most deprived areas
Least deprived areas
0%
Yes
No
Base: All certain to vote = 803. Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013
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Least deprived areas

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Voting intention by party support
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% voting Yes
SNP
74%
80%
18%
9%
Lab
73%
70%
60%
15%
50%
40%
30%
20%
96%
3%
6%
91%
10%
0%
Yes
No
Base: All certain to vote = 803. Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013
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Con
Lib Dem

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Impact of the ‘White Paper’
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Impact of the white paper
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As you may know the Scottish Govt recently published its White Paper, ‘Scotland’s Future’, which outlines their plans for an independent
Scotland. Based on what you may have read, seen or heard, what impact, if any, will this have on how you plan to vote in the referendum?
9% 14%
More likely to vote
Yes
9%
18%
All
51%
19%
Undecided
voters
More likely to vote
No
45%
Make no difference
5%
20%
Haven't read, seen
or heard anything
about it
Don't know
17%
Base: All. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 29th November – 5th December 2013
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22%
May
change
mind
43%
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12%
13%

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Technical details
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• This presents the topline results from Scotland
• Results are based on a survey of 1,006 respondents
(adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone
• Fieldwork dates: 29th November – 5th December 2013
• Data are weighted by: age, sex and working status using
census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private
sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly
Public Sector Employment series data
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to
computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of
“don’t know” categories
• Results are based on all respondents (1,006) unless
otherwise stated
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Thank you
mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269
christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264
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