!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00




!"02"&--& "&3%'('/ 0(#4#.(%#++020
&%(0-01')#.("0#+'/ $0 2020 20$
!"#$%&"'( ) *"+$,"-&. /%"0&#$'1+#0$--23 %"425$3
6%7//(


!2+)0", 9 -284%8, 2009
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00




50$#"6&+'#
7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)'
;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'#
@&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#:
 • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8
 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)"
@&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80%
A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#('
B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"&
C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/
!"')06#+'/
 • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#">
 • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8=
 • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A



!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                   1
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00




50$#"6&+'#
7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)'
;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'#
@&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#:
 • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8
 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)"
@&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80%
A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#('
B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"&
C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/
!"')06#+'/
 • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#">
 • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8=
 • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A



!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                   2
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

E1='# >"#$>0.,)8' "&3%'('/ "0..':.80:
&%(0>"0-,D)#++0.(' – 2020

;#8<=': .>&$ "0..':.8020 &%(0-01')*+020 ",+8& %"#-#++,:, ",+08 %#"+#(./ 8 01F#-&-, >"#%,D&G='- >&"&-#(",
2008 2., % ."#$+#."04+0: >#".>#8('%# >"&8('4#.8' >0 %.#- .#2-#+(&-
   • < -"+#28B&3 >2>$-#, "0#2/%2> +2*,"$# ~1% <<C, 2#0$5"8 *" ~540 #(+. %"425&= >$+# -$/2+%$,+#0$--2 0 )2>/"-&8=-
      /%2&*02,&#$'8= "/> & )2>/'$)#7.B&=, & ,2/2'-&#$'1-2 ~1500 #(+. - /2 2+#"'1-(> 75"+#-&)"> ;$/25)& /2+#"02)
   • < ,2'62+%25-23 /$%+/$)#&0$, %2++&3+)&3 %(-2) 47,$# /%$,+#"0'8#1 ~5% >&%20262

H#3 <4&.('/ 20.<$&".(%&, "0)* "0..':.80: &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.(' .<=#.(%#++0 <-#+*D'(./:
  • D2'1E&-+#02 "//%2&*02,&#$'$3 -"=2,8#+8 /2, 76%2*23 & 0 #8F$'23 G&-"-+2023 +&#7";&& (*" &+)'.5$-&$> %8,"
      /%2&*02,&#$'$3, 0 #.5. 6%7*20(= "/>)
  • <(+2)2 G%"6>$-#&%20"--($, >$')&$ /%2&*02,&#$'& )2>/2-$-#20 +2 *-"5&#$'1-23 0$%28#-2+#1. /%2,2'F"#
      7>$-1E"#1+8 &'& &+5$*-7#

A "0..':.8'I '+(#"#.&I .0I"&+'(* 80+8<"#+(0.>0.01+<G &%(0'+$<.("'G
   • H$'1: >")+&>&*";&8 ,2'& ,24"0'$--23 +#2&>2+#&, +2*,"--23 -" #$%%&#2%&& I2++&& /2 0+$> /$%$,$'"> ;$/25)&
     +2*,"-&8 +#2&>2+#&
   • A0#2&-,7+#%&8 >2F$# +#"#1 '2)2>2#&02> &--20";&3 0 >"E&-2+#%2$-&& & +>$F-(= 2#%"+'8=




!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                   3
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

5"&%+#+'# . -'"0%,-' >08&3&(#)/-' >08&3&)0 .)&10.(*
@0..'' % >08&3&(#)/I >"0'3%0$-(', '+%#.('?':, (0"20%)'
                               !"0'3%0$'(#)*+0.(* – 2008                                   ;#I+0)02'' – 2008                           J+&4'-0.(* (0"20%)' - 2008


                   J&+/(0.(* %           !"-%0 % 2008 2                               L%(0 '+%. %            PQEM@ L%(.         R8.>0"( %        Q->0"( %         L%(0 98.>0"(
                                                                                                  2
                    '+$<.("''            (KL, KML, B".)            M09NN'?'#+(       0.+. 8&>'(&).2             2008              01='I           01='I             % 01=#-
                                                                             1                              (-)"$. O%"0)                       >"0$&6&I (%)               3
                      (-)+.)                 (-)+)                  !"0'3%-('1       (-)"$. O%"0)                              >"0$&6&I(%)                        98.>0"(#3 (%)
   I2++&8

                         0.5                    1.8                     3.6              1.6                  0.1                 2                         48        3

 D%"*&'&8

                         0.4                      3.1                          9.6        3.0                  1.2                20                   14                       24

   J-,&8

                         0.5                     2.3                     5.1             2.4                   0.5                9                5                  4

   K&#"3

                                  2.1                        9.4        4.5                    7.5               3.9              2               3                    5

 L$%>"-&8

                           0.8                         6.0                    8.0                    15.0               12.9             145                 55            16

    ?@A

                            0.9                          8.7                   9.7               11.6                  10.9       11                        42         5



1. C%2&*02,&#$'1-2+#1 %"++5&#(0"$#+8 )") +22#-2E$-&$ /%2&*02,+#0" "0#2>24&'$3 -" %"42#-&)"; 2. J-0$+#&;&& – 24B&$ &-0$+#&;&& 0 G&)+. )"/&#"' 0 "0#2 &-,7+#%&& *" 2008. :'8
D%"*&'&& – $F$62,-($ &-0$+#&;&& /2+5&#"-( &* #%$=62,&5-262 &-0$+#&;&2--262 /'"-" 3. :"--($ ,'8 24B$62 M)+/2%#" -$ 0)'.5".# /%&%2,-($ %$+7%+( (-$G#1, 6"* & #,.)
J+#25-&)&: L2+)2>+#"#; A-"'&* /%$++(; BCG Global Knowledge; United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database; "-"'&* BCG
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                              4
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00


7&8"0980+0-'4#.8': >"02+03
I2++&8

                                                                               !&"&-#(",
                        7&8"098.                      !&"&-#(",               $01&%)#++0:                         !&"&-#(",
                       >&"&-#(",                        ",+8&                  .(0'-0.('                          3&+/(0.('                      !&"&-#(", >&"8&6
                                                                                                                                                                6



                                                       :2'8
                                                       :2'8       :2'8
                                                                  :2'8       % ,24.
                                                                             % ,24.                        K2'-02
                                                                                                           K2'-02               C%2*02,.
                                                                                                                                C%2*02,.                                     C%2-&)-
                                                                                                                                                                             C%2-&)-
                                   <<C/5$'2
                                   <<C/5$'2           &>/2%#"
                                                      &>/2%#"   M)+/2%#"
                                                                M)+/2%#"    +#2&>2+#&
                                                                            +#2&>2+#&      :24.+#2&-
                                                                                           :24.+#2&-      %"42#-. 0 % 2# %"4.
                                                                                                          %"42#-. 0 % 2# %"4.     #%7,"
                                                                                                                                  #%7,"       C"%)
                                                                                                                                              C"%)        <(4(#&8
                                                                                                                                                          <(4(#&8           -20$-&$
                                                                                                                                                                            -20$-&$
                      % <<C1
                      % <<C1        (€/5$')
                                    (€/5$')            (%)9
                                                       (%)9       (%)10
                                                                  (%)10     0 I2++&&3
                                                                            0 I2++&&3   >2+#1 (€ >'%,)4
                                                                                        >2+#1 (€ >'%,)4   "0#2/%2>$
                                                                                                          "0#2/%2>$  +&'(5
                                                                                                                     +&'(5      ("->/5$')
                                                                                                                                ("->/5$')   (>'-."->)
                                                                                                                                            (>'-."->)   (>'-. "->./ %)
                                                                                                                                                        (>'-. "->./ %)   ("->/ #(+. 5$'.)
                                                                                                                                                                         ("->/ #(+. 5$'.)




   2008              0.98%            62              ~60%       ~2%         21%             11.2           0.5       0.7%        3.7        32.0          ~4%                225




   2009              0.57%            36              ~50%       ~2%         25%              5.0           0.4       0.6%        2.0        32.5          ~3%                229




  20207             ~2.38%           347              20%        10%         48%             50.0           0.4       0.6%        9.0        52.0         ~6%8                363




1. :2'8 "0#2/%2>" 0 <<C 2. <<C "0#2/%2>" / 5&+'. -"+$'$-&8 3. I"++5&#(0"$#+8 )") (,24. +#2&>2+#1, +2*,"--"8 0 I2++&&/ 24N$> %(-)" 0 I2++&& + M)+/2%# "/>)
4 9$ 0)'.5"$# >"%F7 ,&'$%20 & )2+0$--($ -"'26& 5. :2'8 *"-8#(= 0 "0#2/%2>$ 2# 24B$62 5&+'" %"4. +&'(      6. O2'1)2 '$6)20($ "-> 7. ?;$-"%&3, /%$,'2F$--(3 P)+/$%#-23 L%7//23
8. 6% - ;$'$023 /2)"*"#$'1 -" 2020 62, (+22#0$#+#07$# +%$,-$>7 7%20-. ,'8 %(-)" ?@A). ?%$,-&3 7%20$-1 *" /$%&2, 2010-2020 +2+#"0&# ~5%
9. :2'8 &>/2%#" 0 ,$-$F-23 2;$-)$ 2# 24N$>" /%2,"F 0 I2++&& 10. :2'8 M)+/2%#" 0 ,$-$F-23 2;$-)$ 2# 24N$>" /%2,"F 0 I2++&&
J+#25-&): 2;$-)& !PI; 2;$-)& BCG; "-"'&* BCG
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                                   5
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00




50$#"6&+'#
7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)'
;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'#
@&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#:
 • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8
 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)"
@&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80%
A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#('
B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"&
C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/
!"')06#+'/
 • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#">
 • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8=
 • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A



!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                   6
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00                RA   RKA LKA A0#
  5 2000 20$& N"&2-#+(&?'/ +& ",+8# @0..'' <.')'%&#(./:
  >0(#"' $)/ %.#I <4&.(+'80% '3-3& -&)020 -&.D(&1&
                                                                 ...>0 ."&%+#+'G . $"<2'-' .("&+&-'
5 2000 20$& N"&2-#+(&?'/ +& ",+8#                                 BRIC, 2$# -&.D(&1 01#.>#4'%&#(./                  S"&2-#+(&?'/ >"'%0$'( 8 >0(#"/- '3-3&
 @0..'' 3+&4'(#)*+0 <.')')&.*...                                 80+?#+("&?'#: ')' 01='- "&3-#"0-                    -&)020 -&.D(&1& ' >0"04+0-< 8"<2<

:2'& %(-)", %                                      :%76&$              :2'& %(-)",%                                  • ?&'1-"8 %"*,%24'$--2+#1 %(-)" /%2,"F
        1,085                  3,029                                          2,717    1,734    8,594
100                                                UAZ                 100
                                                                                                                     • 9&*)&3 24N$> /%2&*02,+#0" & >"'($
         90%                                       PSA                                                                 /%2&*02,+#0$--($ >2B-2+#&
                                                   MAZDA
 80
                                                   DAEWOO               80             75%                           • 9$/%&0'$)"#$'1-(3 %(-2) ,'8
                                                                                                                       >$F,7-"%2,-(= /2+#"0B&)20
                                                   HONDA                      67%
                                                                                                                       )2>/'$)#7.B&=
                                                   MITSUBISHI
 60                                                                     60
                                                   RENAULT                                                           • 9&*)&3 7%20$-1 )2-)7%$-;&& -" %(-)$
                                                   GAZ                                                                 )2>/'$)#7.B&= &*-*" -&*)262 7%20-8
                                41%                                                                                    /%&+7#+#0&8 >$F,7-"%2,-(=
                                                   VW
 40                                                                     40                                             "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'$3
                                                   NISSAN
                                                   TOYOTA                                       23%                  • 9&*)2$ )"5$+#02 %2++&3+)&=
                                                   FORD                                                                /2+#"0B&)20 )2>/'$)#7.B&= /%& >"'2>
 20                                                                     20
                                                   HYUNDAI                                                             >"+E#"4$ /%2&*02,+#0" /2 >2,$'8>
                                                   GM
                                                   AVTOVAZ
                                                                                                                     • <(+2)"8 +#2&>2+#1 '2)"'&*";&&
  0                                                                      0
         2000                   2008                                         D%"*&'& J-,&8      K&#"3                • 9&*)&3 7%20$-1 '2)"'&*";&&
                                                                                8     2008      2088
                                                                              2008
      41%Q4B"8 ,2'8 %(-)"
            #2/-3 75"+#-&)20
                            C)/ <)<4D#+'/ .'(<&?'' +#01I0$'-0 .('-<)'"0%&(* 80+.0)'$&?'G '
                              >&"(+#".(%& "0..':.8'I ' )08&)'30%&++,I &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#:
  J+#25-&): Autostat, &.-1 2009; "-"'&* BCG
  !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                  7
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00                            RA   RKA LKA A0#
 @0..':.8'# &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)' ' .10"04+,# >"#$>"'/('/
 +#6'3+#.>0.01+, ')' +&I0$/(./ % .)06+0- >0)06#+''
                                                                            @0..':.8'#
                            ;"&$'?'0++,# "0..                               .10"04+,#                         Q+0.("&++,#                             T'.(,#
                            &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)'                              >"#$>"'/('/                     &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)'                         '->0"(#",
                                                                                                            ?&'1-"8
                                                                                                            ?&'1-"8     ?%$,-88
                                                                                                                        ?%$,-88     ?'"4"8
                                                                                                                                    ?'"4"8
                                                                                                          '2)"'&*";&8 '2)"'&*";&8 '2)"'&*";&8
                                                                                                          '2)"'&*";&8 '2)"'&*";&8 '2)"'&*";&8



S'+. >03'?'/

 70=+0.(*/                     950K/           265K/   220K/            150K/     180K/      170K/          310K/       210K/        50K/
                                                                                                                                                         N/A
% '.>0)*30%.                    77%             68%     36%              85%       58%        64%            45%         47%          6%


C0)/ ",+8&                      21%             6%     2.5%              4%        3.5%      3.5%           10%          13%         12%                 N/A

  E1=&/
                                               30%                                11%                                    35%                             24%
$0)/ ",+8&

  U&"&8(#-            ! 9$=0"#)" #$=-2'26&3, /%"0 -"               ! ?20%$>$--($ #$=-2'26&& /%2&*- ! Q#-2+&#$'1-2 -$,"0-&3 +#"%#, +   • S&*-$-
  "'.('8'               &-#$''$)#7"'1-7. +24+#0$--2+#1,              0" & 6&4)2+#1, *"/",-(3 +#&'1   -$0(+2)&> 7%20-$> '2)"'&*";&&,     +/2+24-( 0
                        -"0()20 0 &-F&-&%&-6$, >"+E#"420             7/%"0'$-&8, -2 -$ =0"#"$#       >"+E#"4" /%2&*02,+#0", >2#&0";&&   -&E$0(=
                        /'"#G2%>, 6&4)2+#& /%2&*02,+#0" &            +24+#0$--262 &-F&-&%&-6" &      & 62+7,"%+#0$--23 /2,,$%F)& -"     )"#$62%&8=, -$
                        /%2G$++&2-"'1-262 >$-$,F>$-#"                >"+E#"420 /%2&*02,+#0" ,'8      6'742)7. '2)"'&*";&.               -" >"++202>
                                                                     '2)"'&*";&&                                                        %(-)$
                      ! 9$,2+#"#2) &-0$+#&;&2--(=                                                                                     • <(+2)"8
                        %$+7%+20                                                                                                        *"0&+&>2+#1 2#
                      ! !2%"'1-2 & G&*&5$+)& &*-2E$--"8                                                                                 )7%+20 0"'.# &
                        #$=-2'26&5$+)"8 4"*"                                                                                            &*>$-$-&3
                                                                                                                                        #"%&G20
                      ! <$%#&)"'1-"8 +#%7)#7%"
                        /%2&*02,+#0", -"'&5&$
                        -$/%2G&'1-(= ")#&020

 J+#25-&): Global Insight; "-"'&* BCG
 !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                           8
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

@0..':.8'# >"0'3%0$'(#)' 80->0+#+(0% +#6'3+#.>0.01+,,
5! ' '+0.("&++,# >"0'3%0$'(#)' <380 .>#?'&)'3'"0%&++,
                                                                          5! -#6$< "0..':.8'-' '                                Q+0.("&++,#
                       @0..':.8'# >"0'3%0$'(#)'                               '+0.("&++,-'                                     >"0'3%0$'(#)'
                             80->0+#+(0%                                     >"0'3%0$'(#)/-'                                    80->0+#+(0%

A,10"04+,#
 80->&+'' %
  .#2-#+(#


S'+. >03'?'/

                      ! 9$=0"#)" #$=-2'26&3, /%"0 -"                   ! ?20%$>$--($ #$=-2'26&&                        ! Q#-2+&#$'1-2 -20($ &6%2)& -"
                        &-#$''$)#7"'1-7. +24+#0$--2+#1 &                 /%2&*02,+#0" & 242%7,20"-&8,                    %2++&3+)2> %(-)$
                        /%2G$++&2-"'1-262 >$-$,F>$-#"                    /2'75$--($ 2# >$F,7-"%2,-(=
                                                                                                                       ! 9&*)&3 7%20$-1 '2)"'&*";&&, )")
                                                                         /"%#-$%20 ?C
                      ! 9";$'$-( /%$&>7B$+#0$--2 -"                                                                      +74)2>/2-$-#20, #") & +(%18
                        /%2&*02,+#02 )2>/2-$-#20 ,'8                   ! C%")#&5$+)& 2#+7#+#07.# +24+#0$--(3
                                                                                                                       ! T*)"8 +/$;&"'&*";&8 & -$%"*0&#"8
                        +7B$+#07.B&=, 7+#"%$'(= %2++&3+)&=               &-F&-&%&-6 & 9JQKI, G2)7+&%20"-&$
                                                                                                                         )'&$-#+)"8 4"*" /%&02,8# ) >"'2>7
                        >2,$'$3                                          -" /%2&*02,+#0$ /%2,7)#20,
                                                                                                                         >"+E#"47 /%2&*02,+#0"
                                                                         %"*%"42#"--(= >$F,7-"%2,-(>&
  U&"&8(#-            ! Q#+7#+#0&$ &-0$+#&;&2--(= %$+7%+20
                                                                         /"%#-$%">&                                    ! U2)7+ -" #$=-2'26&5$+)& /%2+#(=
  "'.('8'               & &-F&-&%&-620(= -"0()20 ,'8
                                                                                                                         )2>/2-$-#"= + -&*)&> 7%20-$>
                        2+02$-&8 -20(= 0&,20 /%2,7);&& &               ! T*)"8 +/$;&"'&*";&8 – 24(5-2
                                                                                                                         ,24"025-23 +#2&>2+#& (-"/%. +&,$-18,
                        %"+E&%$-&8 )'&$-#+)23 4"*(                       -$42'1E23 "++2%#&>$-# /%2,7)#20 &*
                                                                                                                         +0$5&, 0(='2/-($ +&+#$>( & #.,.)
                                                                         2,-23 - ,07= )"#$62%&3 )2>/2-$-#20
                      ! !2%"'1-2 & G&*&5$+)& &*-2E$--"8
                        #$=-2'26&5$+)"8 4"*"                           ! U2)7+ -" #$=-2'26&5$+)& /%2+#(=
                                                                         )2>/2-$-#"= + -&*)&> 7%20-$>
                      ! 9&*)&3 7%20$-1 )"5$+#0", -$
                                                                         ,24"025-23 +#2&>2+#& (-"/%. 4">/$%",
                        /2*02'8.B&3 /2+#"0'8#1 /%2,7);&.
                                                                         F67#(, +0$#2#$=-&)" & #.,.)
                        >$F,7-"%2,-(> OEM & OES




 !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                         9
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

 V#)* 0("&.)': -&8.'-'3&?'/ $01&%)#++0: .(0'-0.(',
 .03$&++0: % @0..'', >"' $0.(&(04+0- %,10"# ' 8&4#.(%#

M)G4#%,#                         M)G4#%,#
<4&.(+'8'                        '+(#"#.,
                        • 9$,2%2623, -2 -",$F-(3                                                            2020 20$
                          "0#2>24&'1
!0("#1'(#)'
                        • K"5$+#02                                       7&8.'-'3&?'/ $01&%)#++0: .(0'-0.(', .03$&++0: % @0..'', >0 %.#-
                        • @&%2)&3 0(42% >2,$'$3                          >#"#$#)&- ?#>048' .03$&+'/ .(0'-0.(' (. (#8<=#20 <"0%+/ ~23%1 $0
                        • 9&*)"8 +#2&>2+#1                               <"0%+/ 45-50% % 2020)
                          0'",$-&8
                                                                                   L%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)'                           !0.(&%='8'

                        • V"-8#2+#1                                     • !")+&>"'1-2$ 24$+/$5$-&$                 • 9"'&5&$ /%2&*02,+#0" )'.5$0(=
 @&10(+'8'              • ?#"4&'1-(3 ,2=2,                                                                           )2>/'$)#7.B&= & ,2+#"#25-23
                                                                          0-7#%$--$62 +/%2+" *" +5$#
                                                                                                                     +(%1$023 4"*( 0 I2++&&
                                                                          0-7#%$--$62 /%2&*02,+#0"
                                                                                                                   • !")+&>"'1-"8 '2)"'&*";&8
                                                                        • !")+&>"'1-2 0(+2)"8 ,2'8 M)+/2%#"          /%2&*02,+#0" )2>/'$)#7.B&= &
                                                                        • C2,,$%F"-&$ & %"*0&#&$                     "0#2>24&'$3 0+$= "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'$3
                        • !")+&>&*";&8 /%&4('& 0                          2#$5$+#0$--(= 4%$-,20, &>$.B&=           • <(+2)&3 7%20$-1 )2-;$-#%";&& ,'8
 501.(%#+-                2#-2+&#$'1-2 +#"4&'1-23                         /2'2F&#$'1-(3 24%"* 0 I2++&& & *"          &+/2'1*20"-&8 MGG$)#" >"+E#"4"
   +'8'                   2#%"+'&                                         %74$F2>                                  • :2+#&F$-&$ 6'24"'1-262 +#2&>2+#-262
                        • :2=2,-2+#1 -" )"/&#"'
                                                                                                                     /%$&>7B$+#0" /2 /%2&*02,+#07
                                                                                                                     )2>/'$)#7.B&=
                        • !")+&>&*";&8 -"'2620(=
                          /2+#7/'$-&3
                                                                         Q+(#))#8(<&)*+&/ .01.(%#++0.(*:
                        • ?2;&"'1-"8 +#"4&'1-2+#1
B0.<$&".(%0               %$6&2-20                                       • 9"'&5&$ +24+#0$--23 4"*( 9JQKI & /"#$-#23 4"*( /2 )'.5$0(> M'$>$-#"> /
                        • L2%,2+#1 2#$5$+#0$--(>                           )2>/2-$-#"> / &-,7+#%&"'1-(> %$E$-&8>
                          4%$-,2>


 J+#25-&): P)+/$%#-"8 L%7//"
 1 - 2# +202)7/-262 %"*>$%" %(-)" + M)+/2%#". ?%$,-&3 /2)"*"#$'1 *" 2008-200966.
 !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                 10
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00




50$#"6&+'#
7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)'
;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'#
@&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#:
 • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8
 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)"
@&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80%
A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#('
B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"&
C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/
!"')06#+'/
 • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#">
 • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8=
 • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A



!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                   11
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00


L%(0",+08 %0..(&+0%'(./ % ."#$+#."04+0: >#".>#8('%#
?G2%>&%20"-( )2-+2'&,&%20"--($ /%26-2*( /2 %(-)"> RA, RKA, LKA, "0#247+20

                                  K#280%,# &%(0-01')'                                                                                                                                                                               B"<30%,# &%(0-01')'
                                                               !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – 80+.0)'$'"0%&++0# -+#+'# 98.>#"(+0: 2"<>>,                                             RA      RKA LKA A0#                                                                !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – 80+.0)'$'"0%&++0# -+#+'# 98.>#"(+0: 2"<>>,                                        RA         RKA LKA A0#
              M 2020 20$< >"02+03'"<#(./ %0..(&+0%)#+'# 01F#-&                                                                                                                                                  502)&.+0 +&'10)## %#"0/(+0-< .?#+&"'G, % 2020 20$<
              ",+8& &/- $0 2,8-4,1 -)+. &/-                                                                                                                                                                     01F#- ",+8& 2"<30%'80% .0.(&%'( 200-230 (,.. &/-
                                                                          -#./"# 0+#123& .(4"#567 2/%1                                                                                                                                                                              8+#123& $#567 4+9,#5&"#5
                !#"'0$
            >#"%0+&4&)*+020                     5(&2+&?'/                             !"#0$0)#+'#                        !0.(8"'3'.+0#                       5(&1')'3&?'/ ",+8&                                                                                                                !0.(8"'3'.+0#                                         5(&1')'3&?'/
                 "0.(&                                                                 0(.(&%&+'/                        %0..(&+0%)#+'#                                                                                                                                                        %0..(&+0%)#+'#                                            ",+8&
              C%2,"F& -20(= '$6)20(= "/>                                                                                                                            -0.5%/+3%                                       C%2,"F& 6%7*20&)20
              (>'-. $,&-&;)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 +3+7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    (#(+. $,&-&;)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   250
              5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  243
                                                                                                      !"#$#%&'()"&*                                                                                                                                                            !"#$#%&'()"&*
                                                                                                          "+&,&)                                                                                                                                                                   "+&,&)                                                                                         198
                                                                                                                                                                                       4,1
                                                                                                                                   +11-16%                                                                         200                                                                                                                                                                  190
              4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         +14-29%
                                                                                                                                                                                 3,6         502)&.0%&++,:                                                           174     171                                                                                                         186
                                                                                                                                                                     3.5                     1&30%,: .?#+&"':
                                                                                                                                                                           3,6         3,6
              3             !"#$#%&'()"&*                                                                 2,8                                          3,3
                                                                                                                                                              3,4                                                  150                                               46      45
                                "+&,&)                                                  +21%
                                                                                                                                                 3,1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            125
                                                                                                    2.4                                    2,8                                         2,8
                                                                                                                                    2.4
                                                                                                                             2.0                                                                                                                             30
              2                                                                                           1,4          1.8
                                                                                              1.8                                                                                                                  100         90          89      92
                                                       +0%                                          1,2
                                                                                                                1.4
                         +16%                                                  1.3     1.4    0,8                                                                                                                                                   24
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               36          29
                                1,0                         1.0    1.0   1.1     0.3   0,4                                                                                                                                                                           128     126
              1                               0.9    0.9                                            0,5   0,6
                          0,8          0,8                               0.2   0.1
                   0,7                                                                 0.2    0,3                                                                                                                    50                                      95                         44
                                                                         0,9    0,9                                                                                                                                                        60       67
                                                                                       0,8    0,7   0,7   0,7                                                                                                                  54
              0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0
                  19952 19962 19972 19982 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2003       2004        2005     2006     2007    2008    2009    2010E   2011E   2012E   2013E    2014E   2015E    2016E   2017E   2018E    2019E    2020E
                                                                                                                                                                                 J>/2%#
                                                                                                                                                                                 R2)"'&*20"--($                                                                                                                                                                                 6-14#
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          D"*20(3                 ?;$-"%&&     C%26-2* KA!AV                 C%26-2* Sollers
                                                                                                                                                                                 Q#$5$+#0$--($                                                                                                                                                                                  >14#
                                                                                                                                                                                 "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'&                                                                                                                                                                              ?;$-"%&3 Global Insight
              1. C%26-2* +2+#"0'8'+8 -" 4"*$ /%26-2*" %(-)" '$6)20(= "/> & RKA BCG, + 0(5$#2> 4"*20262 +;$-"%&8 RKA /2 ,"--(> %"425$3 6%7//(
              2. :"--($ 2 ,2'$ >$F,7-"%2,-(= "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'$3 -$,2+#7/-(; 2;$-)& + #25-2+#1. ,2 10%                                                                                                           C%&>$5"-&$: /%26-2* L%7//( KA!AV 0*8# *" 2+-207 0 )"5$+#0$ 4"*20262 +;$-"%&8.
              J+#25-&): Global Insight (,$)"4%1 2008); A0#2+#"#; 2/(# /%2$)#20 BCG; >2,$'1 %(-)" BCG                                                                                                            J+#25-&): Global Insight (2)#84%1 2009 62,"); KA!AV; Sollers; "-"'&* BCG
              !"#$%&"'( M)+/$%#-23 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 - 06Nov2009.ppt                                                                                                                               43         !"#$%&"'( M)+/$%#-23 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 - 06Nov2009.ppt                                                                                                                                  46




      K#28'# 80--#"4#.8'# &%(0-01')'                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          L%(01<.,
                                                                !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – 80+.0)'$'"0%&++0# -+#+'# 98.>#"(+0: 2"<>>,                                            RA      RKA LKA A0#                                                                !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – 80+.0)'$'"0%&++0# -+#+'# 98.>#"(+0: 2"<>>,                                        RA         RKA LKA A0#
              502)&.+0 +&'10)## %#"0/(+0-< .?#+&"'G, % 2020 20$<                                                                                                                                                @,+08 &%(01<.0% +# %0..(&+0%'(./ $0 <"0%+/ 2007 20$&
              01F#- ",+8& KML .0.(&%'( 350 (,.. &/-                                                                                                                                                             $&6# % 2020 20$<
                                                                                             8+#123& $#567 :;<                                                                                                                                                                      8+#123& $#567 25=#>9)#5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          C%2,"F& "0#247+20
                  !#"'0$                                5(&2+&?'/                            !"#0$0)#+'#                       !0.(8"'3'.+0#                        5(&1')'3&?'/ ",+8&                                    (#(+. $,&-&;)
           >#"%0+&4&)*+020 "0.(&                                                              0(.(&%&+'/                       %0..(&+0%)#+'#                                                                             40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      !0.(8"'3'.+0#                                  5(&1')'3&?'/ ",+8&
                                                                                                                                                                            +3+8%
                  C%2,"F& RKA (#(+. $,&-&;)                                                                                                                                                  422                                                                                                      %0..(&+0%)#+'#
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   33.1
                  400                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        !"#$#%&'()"&*
                                                                                                            !"#$#%&'()"&*                                                                    350                                                                                 "+&,&)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          30                                                                                                                                           +4%
                                                                                                                "+&,&)
                                   !"#$#%&'()"&*                                                                                          +14-18%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  25.7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          26.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          25.0                                                                                                           24.8
                  300                  "+&,&)                                                                                                                                                283                                                                                                                                                                23.7                      2,4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                22.0                                                                                                   22.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              +11%               19.7         21.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            20.3                                       18.4                                                               6,0
                                                             +1.7%                                                                                                                                                        20        18.3
                                                                                                          209   210
                                                                                                                                                                                             251
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              15.9
                  200
                                                                                       167    170   176                                                                                                                                                                                               13.6
                                +25%
                                                     146 145             149    146                                                                                                                                                                                                  11.4    11.0
                                       138    134                  132
                                110                                                                                    105                                                                                                10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          18,2
                  100     88
                                                                                                                        99



                    0                                                                                                                                                                                                      0
                         1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E                                                              2004        2005      2006     2007     2008    2009     2010    2011     2012     2013      2014    2015        2016     2017     2018     2019      2020



                                             D"*20(3                ?;$-"%&&           C%26-2* Sollers                C%26-2* LAV                      ?;$-"%&3 Global Insight                                                                  J>/2%#           :%. /%2&*02,&#$'& IU          L%7//" LAV       C%26-2* LAV              C%26-2* KA!AV                 ?;$-"%&&1


                                                                                                                                                                                                                C%&>$5"-&$: Global Insight -$ /%$,2+#"0'8$# ,"--($ 24 "0#247+-2> %(-)$ I2++&&
                                                                                                                                                                                                                1. ?;$-"%&& /%$,/2'"6".# +'$,7.B7. 02'"#&'1-2+#1: 02*>2F-2+#1 /20(E$-&8 -" 20% 2#-2+&#$'1-2 4"*20262 7%20-8 0 2/#&>&+#&5$+)2> +;$-"%&& & %&+) +-&F$-&8 -" 40% 0
              C%&>$5"-&$: &+#2%&5$+)&$ *-"5$-&8 /2)"*"#$'$3 +26'"+-2 Global Insight. ?;$-"%&3 Sollers %"++>"#%&0"$#+8 )") 4"*20(3.                                                                              /$++&>&+#&5$+)2> +;$-"%&&
              J+#25-&): Global Insight (2)#84%1 2009 62,"); Sollers; L%7//" LAV; "-"'&* BCG                                                                                                                     J+#25-&): L%7//" LAV; KA!AV; "-"'&* BCG
              !"#$%&"'( M)+/$%#-23 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 - 06Nov2009.ppt                                                                                                                               45         !"#$%&"'( M)+/$%#-23 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 - 06Nov2009.ppt                                                                                                                                  47




!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            12
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

A03-06+0 3 0.+0%+,I .?#+&"'/ "&3%'('/ 0("&.)' – .
"&3+,-' >0("#1+0.(/-' % '+%#.('?'/I ' "#3<)*(&(0-

                                      9&*)"8 ,2'8
                                                                                                                                    9$02*>2F$-, )")
                                         &>/2%#"
                                                                                                                                    +">2+#28#$'1-(3
                                                      X/2-&8
                                                                                                                                       +;$-"%&3
                                                                                                         K&#"3
                                                                                                                        "V")%(#(3
                                                                                       2030                               %(-2)"
                                                                      K2%$8     31
                                                                               "K%7/-(3
                                                                                                      D%"*&'&8 2
                                                                               M)+/2%#$%"
                                                                                                            "C"%#-$%+#02"



                                  C0)/ ",+8&,
                                 01#.>#4#++&/
                                   '->0"(0-                                                    2030

                                                                                     3&
                                                                     J+/"-&8      "K%7/-(3
                                                                                  M)+/2%#$%"

                                                                                                                 I2++&8 +$62,-8


                                                                                                                                                      H$'1 ,2 2020
                                                                                                                 !"'"3*&8
                                                                                                                            1
                                                               <2+#25-"8 W0%2/"                                         "O$)7B&3                      H$'1 ,2 2030
                                     <(+2)"8 ,2'8
                                                                                                                         0$)#2%"
                                         &>/2%#"
                                                      <(+2)"8 ,2'8                                                   9&*)"8 ,2'8
                                                      M)+/2%#"                                                          M)+/2%#"

                                                                                    500(+0D#+'#
                                                                                      98.>0"(& '
                                                                                  %+<("#++#20 ",+8&


J+#25-&): "-"'&* BCG
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                  13
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

5?#+&"'' >0.("0#+, +& 1&3# 01='I $0><=#+': $)/
.#2-#+(0% KL, KML ' BML                                                                                                                         H&
                                                                                                                                                  3
                                                                                                                                               2'> 0%,
                                                                                                                                                  0(# #
                                                                                                                                                     3,
     M)G4#%,#                                     ;#8<=':                                                J&8",(,:                      M"<>+,:
     $0><=#+'/                             1                            2 !&"(+#".(%0                                           3
                                                   %#8(0"                                                 ",+081
                                                                                                               1                      98.>0"(#"

                                          • I2+. OEM 0 2+-20-2>        • I2++&3+)&$ OEM             • I2+. OEM 24'",".#        • I2+. OEM, -$*"0&+&>($ &'&
                    ?#%7)#7%"/              %"42#".# 0 )"5$+#0$          &-#$6%&%20"-( 0 6'24.        >2-2/2'&$3, +24+#0. /      0 /"%#-$%+#0$ + 6'24. OEM
                   Q%6"-&*";&8              /%2&*02,&#$'$3 /2            6%7//(, -$+). &-2+#%.        '&;$-*&%20"--"8 J?       • K2-)7%$-#2+/2+24-( -"
                                            )2-#%")#7                    OEM '2)"'&*20"-2                                        6'24"'1-2> 7%20-$

                                          • !$+#-2$ /%2&*02,+#02       • C%2&*02,+#02 0 I2++&&      • J>/2%# 25$-1 >"', %2+.   • Q%&$-#&%20)" -" M)+/2%#,
                    I(-25-(3                7,20'$#02%8$# '&E1           -";$'$-2 -" 7,20'$#0.        OEM /%2&*02,8# #2'1)2      42'$$ 1/3 +24%"--(= 0
   OEM               ");$-#                 ~50% +/%2+", 2+#"'1-2$       0-7#%. +/%2+" – >"'(3        ,'8 0-7#%$--$62 %(-)"      I2++&& "/> M)+/2%#&%7$#+8
                                            &>/2%#&%7$#+8                24N$> &>/. & M)+/2%#"
                                          • Q,&- &'& -$+)2'1)&=        • 2(&'& 42'1E$) OEM          • 2-3 -$*"0&+&>(= OEM,     • 1 )%7/-(3 )2-+. %2++&3+)&3
                     ?#$/$-1                -$42'1E&=, >"'2>"+E#.        0=2,8# 0 6'24"'1-($          >"'(3 >"+E#"4 -"           -$*"0&+&>(3 OEM +
                  )2-+2'&,";&&              OEM, -$ &>$.B&=              6%7//(, *"&>+#07.#           >&%202> 7%20-$             -$+)2'1)2 -&E$0(= &6%2)20
                                            +24+#0. J? & >2,$'$3         /'"#G2%>( & /%25. J?
                                          • 9$*-"5&#$'1-2$             • ?&'1-2$ /%&+7#+#0&$        • A);$-# -" &>$.B&=+8      • D2'1E&-+#02 )%7/-$3E&=
                   J-2+#%"--($              /%&+7#+#0&$, /2+#"0)&        &-2+#%"--(= OES,             &-2+#%"--(= OEM,           OES /%&+7#+#07.# 0 I2++&&,
                       OES                  #2'1)2 &-2+#%"--(>           >-2625&+'$--($ ?C +          >"'(3 7%20$-1              ");$-# -" /2+#"0)&
                                            OEM                          >$+#-(>& )2>/"-&8>&          '2)"'&*";&&                %2++&3+)&> OEM
   OES
                                          • 9$)2-)7%$-#-(,             • ?C %2++&3+)&= OES +        • A);$-# #2'1)2 -" %2+.    • K2-)7%&%7.# +
                    I2++&3+)&$              /2+#"0)& #2'1)2              &-2+#%"--(>&                 OEM                        &-2+#%"--(>& )2>/"-&8>&
                       OES                  *"/5"+#$3 7+#"%$0E&=         /"%#-$%">&
                                            %2+. >2,$'$3
                       I2'1               • 9JQKI +7B$+#07$#           • I2++&8 – 5"+#1 6'24.       • 9JQKI #2'1)2 7 %2+.      • C2'-2>"+E#"4-($
                    %2++&3+)23              #2'1)2 -" 7%20-$             +$#& 9JQKI &-2+#%.           OEM                        /2,%"*,$'$-&8 9JQKI
                      9JQKI                 /%2&*02,+#0. /'2B",2)        QW!, +2 +/$;. ");$-#2>                                  %2++&3+)&= OEM
 PQEM@
                                          • Q6%"-&5$- &-F$-$%-(>       • A);$-# -" &>$.B&$+8 0      • A);$-# -" %"*%"42#)7     • A);$-# -" %"*%"42#)7
                      A);$-#
                                            24$+/$5$-&$>                 I2++&& /%$&>7B$+#0"          >2,$'$3 ,'8 I2++&&         >2,$'$3//'"#G2%> ,'8
                      9JQKI
                                            /%2&*02,+#0"                 (-"/%., >"#$%&"'()                                      >&%20262 %(-)"
1. ?;$-"%&3 «V")%(#(3 %(-2)» -$02*>2F$- )") +">2+#28#$'1-(3
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                     14
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

M&6$,: '3 .?#+&"'#% 0?#+#+ >0 (0-<, 8&8 0+
.>0.01.(%<#( $0.('6#+'G .("&(#2'4#.8'I ?#)#:...
                                                                                   1                   2                                   3
                                                                                         ;#8<=':                          J&8",(,:              M"<>+,:
                   M)G4#%,# .(0"0+,                                5#20$+/                %#8(0"       !&"(+#".(%0         ",+081
                                                                                                                                1              98.>0"(#"


                  • C2)%(#&$ 0-7#%$--$62 +/%2+"
                    0-7#%$--&> /%2&*02,+#02>
  OEM             • <(+2)"8 ,2'8 M)+/2%#"
                  • ?24+#0$--($ /2*&#&0-($ 4%$-,(


                  • K'.5$0($ )2>/'$)#7.B&$ &
                    +(%1$0"8 4"*" 0 I2++&&
                  • !")+&>"'1-"8 '2)"'&*";&8
  OES             • :2+#&F$-&$ MGG$)#" >"+E#"4"
                  • :2+#&F$-&$ 6'24"'1-262
                    +#2&>2+#-262 /%$&>7B$+#0"



                  • ?24+#0$--"8 4"*" 9JQKI /
     IP             /"#$-#20




                  • I$"'&+#&5-2+#1




   Q(020%,: "#:('+2 .?#+&"'#%


                                                                9$ +22#0$#+#07$# ;$'8>     Y"+#&5-2 +22#0$#+#07$# ;$'8>   C2'-2+#1. +22#0$#+#07$# ;$'8>

1. ?;$-"%&3 «V")%(#(3 %(-2)» -$02*>2F$- )") +">2+#28#$'1-(3
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                       15
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

 ... ' 8&8 0+ .00(%#(.(%<#( '+(#"#.&- 8)G4#%,I <4&.(+'80%
 ",+8&

                                                                             1                  2                                   3
 M)G4#%,#                        M)G4#%,#                                        ;#8<=':                               J&8",(,:       M"<>+,:
 <4&.(+'8'                       '+(#"#.,                    5#20$+/              %#8(0"         !&"(+#".(%0            ",+081
                                                                                                                             1       98.>0"(#"

                      • 9$,2%2623, -2 -",$F-(3
                        "0#2>24&'1
                      • K"5$+#02
!0("#1'(#)'           • @&%2)&3 0(42% >2,$'$3
                      • 9&*)"8 +#2&>2+#1
                        0'",$-&8


                      • V"-8#2+#1
 @&10(+'8'            • ?#"4&'1-(3 ,2=2,



                      • !")+&>&*";&8 /%&4('& 0
 501.(%#+-              2#-2+&#$'1-2 +#"4&'1-23
   +'8'                 2#%"+'&
                      • :2=2,-2+#1 -" )"/&#"'

                      • !")+&>&*";&8 -"'2620(=
                        /2+#7/'$-&3
                      • ?2;&"'1-"8 +#"4&'1-2+#1
B0.<$&".(%0             %$6&2-20
                      • L2%,2+#1 2#$5$+#0$--(>
                        4%$-,2>
                                                                                                                              C2'-2+#1. +22#0$#+#07$#

                                                                                                                              Y"+#&5-2 +22#0$#+#07$#

 1. ?;$-"%&3 «V")%(#(3 %(-2)» -$02*>2F$- )") +">2+#28#$'1-(3                                                                  9$ +22#0$#+#07$#
 J+#25-&): A-"'&* M)+/$%#-23 6%7//(, BCG
 !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                    16
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00




50$#"6&+'#
7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)'
;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'#
@&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#:
 • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8
 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)"
@&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80%
A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#('
B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"&
C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/
!"')06#+'/
 • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#">
 • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8=
 • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A



!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                   17
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00                         RA   RKA LKA A0#
K#280%,# &%(0-01')': ?#)#%,- 1<$#( .?#+&"'' 8"<>+020
98.>0"(#"&, 8 80(0"0-< +<6+0 >"0:(' 4#"#3 >&"(+#".(%0
      5("<8(<"&                             1                                       2                                    3
        ",+8&                                   ;#8<=': %#8(0"                              !&"(+#".(%0                      M"<>+,: 98.>0"(#"

1 <-7#%$--&3 %(-2)                                           3.6M                                 3.6M                            3.6M

                                                  1.8M                              700K                                   1M
2 J>/2%#                                         (50%)                             (~20%)                                (~28%)

    <-7#%$--$$
3                                                                   1.9M                             3.15M                                     4M
    /%2&*02,+#02
                                                                            100K                               250K                                   1.4M
4 P)+/2%#                                                                  (~5%)                               (8%)                                  (35%)

    I"+/%$,$'$-&$                                            0.6M       1.3M                 1.65M           1.5M                         3M           1M
5                                                            30%        70%                   52%            48%                         75%          25%
    0-7#%. /%2&*02,+#0"

6 I"+/%$,$'$-&$                                                                                                                                     ...
  '2)"'1-(= OEM

    I"+/%$,$'$-&$ &-2+#%.                                                  ...                                 ...                                        ..
7
    '2)"'&*20"--(= OEM
    I"+/%$,$'$-&$
8
    M)+/2%#"
                                                 !
                                                 !       @
                                                         @          5
                                                                    5       B
                                                                            B           !
                                                                                        !     @
                                                                                              @          5
                                                                                                         5     B
                                                                                                               B             !
                                                                                                                             !      @
                                                                                                                                    @          5
                                                                                                                                               5      B
                                                                                                                                                      B
    ?22#0$#+#0&$
    &-#$%$+"> )'.5$0(=
    75"+#-&)20
                                                                                                                                        I2++&3+)&$ -$*"0&+&>($ QW!
                                                                                                                                        I2+. QW! 0 /"%#-$%+#0$
J+#25-&)&: K">"*, L"*, ?2''$%+; Global Insight; !2,$'1 %(-)" BCG; A-"'&* BCG                                                            J-2+#%"--($ OEM
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                            18
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00                                   RA      RKA LKA A0#
5?#+&"'' "&3)'4&G(./ +#01I0$'-,- $)/ $0.('6#+'/
?#)#%,I 01F#-0% <.')'/-, ' .0><(.(%<G='- '3$#"68&-
         M)G4#%,#                             1                                                    2                                     3
         >&"&-#(",                                      ;#8<=': %#8(0"                                        !&"(+#".(%0                    M"<>+,: 98.>0"(#"
  M0)'4#.(%0 "0..':.8'I
                                                                     1-3                                                2-3                          1-2 + -&E$0($
  '2"080%
  W"0%#+* .0("<$+'4#.(%&
                                                          ?42%)" /2 )2-#%")#7                                  C"%#-$%+#02, IP                     R&;$-*&%20"-&$ IP
  . 2)01&)*+,-' OEM
  K08&)*+,# OEM
                                                                      0                                                 2-3                                     4-5
  # >)&(N0"-
  K08&)*+,# OEM
                                                                     2-3                                               10-14                                   16-20
  # -0$#)#:
  E1F#- >"0'3%0$.(%& /
                                                                1.9 >'-. / 28.5                                3.15 >'-. / 47.25                           4 >'-. / 60
  %,"<48& 2020 (€ -)"$)

  P#01I0$'-,#
  '+%#.('?'', € -)"$.                                                         R&D *" %74$F2>
                         !2,$%-&*";&8                                         C"%#-$%(                 2,4
                                                  1,2                                                                                        2,4
     OEM                7+#. >2B-2+#$3                                        L2+.6"%"-#&&
                      920($ >2B-2+#&              0,0                                                   1,3                                  3,6
                                                                              C%8>2$ 62+.
       PT             920($ >2B-2+#&              0,0                         G&-"-+&%20"-&$             1,2                                        2,4
                                                                                                         5,6                                             9,2
     OES              920($ >2B-2+#&         1.6
                     9JQKI /'"#G2%>,                    9,0                                                     4,4     9,7                                      7,6     6,3
                                            0,6
     R&D                     >2,$'$3
                                  J#262             3,4                                                               14,9                                             25,2

                           L2+7,"%+#02              25%                                                        50%                                 75%           25%
  J+#25-&)
                                                                                                              50%
  G&-"-+.                     K2>/"-&&             75%

                                                                                               0               10        20    30   40   0          10          20         30   40
                                            0              10         20          30     40

         Q+%#.('?''
       A,"<48& 2010-2020                                        1.3%                                                  3.7%                                      5%

!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                                  19
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00                             RA     RKA LKA A0#
KML: ?#)#%,- 1<$#( .?#+&"'' 8"<>+020 98.>0"(#"&, 8
80(0"0-< +<6+0 >"0:(' 4#"#3 >&"(+#".(%0

                                                 1                                                2                                    4
    5("<8(<"& @,+8&                                                                                       !&"(+#".(%0                      M"<>+,: 98.>0"(#"
                                                          ;#8<=': %#8(0"

1 <-7#%$--&3 %(-2)                                                    350K                                      350K                            350K

                                                          175M                                      70K                                  70K
2 J>/2%#                                                  (50%)                                   (~20%)                               (~20%)

     <-7#%$--$$
3                                                                                185K                             330K                                  430K
     /%2&*02,+#02
                                                                                          10K                                50K                                1.50K
4 P)+/2%#                                                                               (~5%)                              (15%)                               (~35%)

     I"+/%$,$'$-&$ 0-7#%.                                             55K          130K                          305K        25K                       410K        20K
5                                                                     30%          70%                           93%         7%                        95%         5%
     /%2&*02,+#0"

6 I"+/%$,$'$-&$                                                        ...                                                                              ...
  '2)"'1-(= OEM

7 I"+/%$,$'$-&$ &-2+#%.                                                                 ...                                      ...                                  ...
  '2)"'&*20"--(= OEM

8 I"+/%$,$'$-&$ M)+/2%#"

    ?22#0$#+#0&$                                      !
                                                      !           @
                                                                  @          5
                                                                             5                B
                                                                                              B       !
                                                                                                      !     @
                                                                                                            @          5
                                                                                                                       5     B
                                                                                                                             B             !
                                                                                                                                           !     @
                                                                                                                                                 @       5
                                                                                                                                                         5        B
                                                                                                                                                                  B
    &-#$%$+"> )'.5$0(=
    75"+#-&)20
                                                                                                                                                I2++&3+)&$ -$*"0&+&>($ QW!
                                                                                                                                                I2+. QW! 0 /"%#-$%+#0$
J+#25-&)&: K">"*, L"*, ?2''$%+; Global Insight; P)+/$%#-"8 L%7//"; A-"'&* BCG                                                                   J-2+#%"--($ OEM
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                         20
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00                                   RA        RKA LKA A0#
5?#+&"'' "&3)'4&G(./ +#01I0$'-,- $)/ $0.('6#+'/
?#)#%,I 01F#-0% <.')'/-, ' .0><(.(%<G='- '3$#"68&-
 M)G4#%,#
 >&"&-#(",                               1        ;#8<=': %#8(0"                             2          !&"(+#".(%0                             3 M"<>+,: 98.>0"(#"

M0)-%0 "0..':.8'I
                                                                -$+)2'1)2                                      -$+)2'1)2                                              2
'2"080%

W"0%#+* .0("<$+'4#.(%&                                +42%)" /2 )2-#%")#7                                /"%#-$%+#02 IP                                               IP
. 2)01&)*+,-' OEM
K08&)*+,# OEM
                                                                      0                                   4 /2 '&;$-*&&                             2 +24+#0. + 2 /2 '&;$-*&&
# >)&(N0"-
K08&)*+,# OEM
# -0$#)#:2
                                                                      ~                                               ~                                               ~

E1F#- >"0'3%0$.(%& /
                                                                185K / 3.7                                        330K / 6.6                                    430K / 8.6
%,"<48& 2020 (€ -)"$.)1

P#01I0$'-,#
'+%#.('?'', € -)"$.
                      !2,$%-&*";&8                                        R&D *" %74$F2>
                                                0,3                                               0,5                                               0,5
                     7+#. >2B-2+#$3                                       C"%#-$%(
    OEM             :2/2'-&#$'1-($                                                                                                                   0,3
                                                                          L2+.6"%"-#&&
                           >2B-2+#&
                             920($                                        C%8>2$ 62+.              0,2                                                    0,4
     PT                    >2B-2+#&                                       G&-"-+&%20"-&$
    OES                          OES             0,3                                              0,9                                                     1,2
                         C'"#G2%>(,                                                                      0,8    0,2                                                   2,6            0,1
    R&D                                   0,4         1,3
                             >2,$'&
                                <+$62                 1,0                                                       2,4                                                              5,0
 J+#25-&)                L2+7,"%+#02                  25%                                              50%                                                75%              25%
 G&-"-+.                    K2>/"-&&              75%                                                   50%

                                           0      1         2     3       4     5    6        0    1      2      3        4   5   6             0    1      2     3        4     5     6
     Q+%#.('?''
   A,"<48& 2010-2020                                        2.7%                                              4.7%                                              8.6%
1. Q4N$> 0(%75)& 7)"*"- 0 #$)7B&= ;$-"=, /%& ,2/7B$-&& 2 +%$,-$3 ;$-$ RKA ~20K EUR ) 2020 62,7           2. C2-8#&$ >2,$'& ) RKA -$ /%&>$-&>2
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                                        21
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00                              RA        RKA LKA A0#
B"<30%,# &%(0-01')': ?#)#%0: .?#+&"': - 8"<>+020
98.>0"(#"&
      5("<8(<"&                                                                                                                                M"<>+,:
                                                  1                                     2                                      3
       @,+8&                                           ;#8<=': %#8(0"                            !&"(+#".(%0                                  98.>0"(#"


1 <-7#%$--&3 %(-2)                                                                               190K                                     190K

                                                                                          40K
2 J>/2%#                                                                                 (20%)
                                                                                                                                         2#+7#+#07$#

    <-7#%$--$$
3
    /%2&*02,+#02                                       :"--(3 +;$-"%&3                                  210K                                   280K
                                                      -$ /%$,+#"0'8$#+8
                                                                                                                    60K                                    90K
4 P)+/2%#                                               %$"'&+#&5-(> 0                                             (28%)
                                                                                                                         50K
                                                                                                                                                          (32%)
                                                                                                                                                                100K

                                                       +08*& + #$)7B&>
    I"+/%$,$'$-&$                                                                                65K     100K       45K                110K        110K       55K
5                                                       ,2>&-&%7.B&>                             30%     48%        22%                40%         40%        20%
    0-7#%. /%2&*02,+#0"
                                                          /2'2F$-&$>
6 I"+/%$,$'$-&$                                       %2++&3+)&= &6%2)20                                  ..
  '2)"'1-(= OEM

    I"+/%$,$'$-&$ &-2+#%.                                                                                            ..                                       ..
7
    '2)"'&*20"--(= OEM
    I"+/%$,$'$-&$
8
    M)+/2%#"
                                                                                            !
                                                                                            !      @
                                                                                                   @           5
                                                                                                               5          B
                                                                                                                          B        !
                                                                                                                                   !           @
                                                                                                                                               @          5
                                                                                                                                                          5         B
                                                                                                                                                                    B
    ?22#0$#+#0&$
    &-#$%$+"> )'.5$0(=
    75"+#-&)20
                                                                                                                               I2++&3+)&$ -$*"0&+&>($ QW!
                                                                                                                               I2+. QW! 0 /"%#-$%+#0$
                                                                                                                               J-2+#%"--($ OEM
J+#25-&)&: K">"*, L"*, ?2''$%+; Global Insight; !2,$'1 %(-)" BCG; A-"'&* BCG
                                                                                                                               C%2&*02,+#02 *" %74$F2>
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                     22
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00                                              RA         RKA LKA A0#
5?#+&"'' "&3)'4&G(./ +#01I0$'-,- $)/ $0.('6#+'/
?#)#%,I 01F#-0% <.')'/-, ' .0><(.(%<G='- '3$#"68&-
     M)G4#%,#                                                                                                                                             M"<>+,:
                                                  1                                     2                                                 3
     >&"&-#(",                                         ;#8<=': %#8(0"                          !&"(+#".(%0                                               98.>0"(#"

M0)'4#.(%0 "0..':.8'I                                                                                                                           1 + -&E$0($ '&42
                                                                                                         -$+)2'1)2
'2"080%                                                :"--(3 +;$-"%&3                                                                    -$+)2'1)2 )%7/-(= M)+/2%#$%20
W"0%#+* .0("<$+'4#.(%&                                -$ /%$,+#"0'8$#+8                          C"%#-$%+#02, IP                                        R&;$-*&%20"-&$ IP
. 2)01&)*+,-' OEM
                                                        %$"'&+#&5-(> 0
K08&)*+,# OEM
# >)&(N0"-
                                                       +08*& + #$)7B&>                      1 >2,7'1-"8 + '&;$-*&&                                1 >2,7'1-"8 + '&;$-*&&

K08&)*+,# OEM                                           ,2>&-&%7.B&>
                                                                                                                -                                                    -
# -0$#)#:                                                 /2'2F$-&$>
E1F#- >"0'3%0$.(%& /                                  %2++&3+)&= &6%2)20                       210 #(+. / 24 >'%,.                                      275 #(+. / 32 >'%,.
%,"<48& 2020

                                                                     P#01I0$'-,#
                                                                     '+%#.('?'', € -)"$.
                                                                                     !2,$%-&*";&8
                                                                                                          0,8                                      0,8
                                                                        OEM         7+#. >2B-2+#$3
                                                                                  920($ >2B-2+#&1         0,0                                            1,9
                                                                         PT        920($ >2B-2+#&              1,2                                            1,2

                                                                        OES        920($ >2B-2+#&               0,8                                      0.8
                                                                                 9JQKI /'"#G2%>,
                                                                                                          4.3             2,5                           4.3              2,9
                                                                                         >2,$'$3
                                                                        R&D
                                                                                            J#262                         6.5                                            8,4
     R&D *" %74$F2>
                                                                                      L2+7,"%+#02                50%                                      75%
     C"%#-$%(                                                        J+#25-&)
     L2+.6"%"-#&&                                                    G&-"-+.             K2>/"-&&        50%
                                                                                                                                                  25%
     C%8>2$ 62+.                                                                                     0               5          10   15       0            5             10       15
     G&-"-+&%20"-&$
                                                                           Q+%#.('?''
                                                                         A,"<48& 2010-2020                               3.2%                                 3.2%
1. <)'.5"8 €1 >'%,. -" M&A ,'8 +;$-"%&8 )%7/-262 M)+/2%#$%"
J+#25-&)&: K">"*, L"*, ?2''$%+; Global Insight; !2,$'1 %(-)" BCG; A-"'&* BCG
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                                    23
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00                                  RA    RKA LKA A0#



L%(01<.,: ?#)#%0: .?#+&"': - 8"<>+020 98.>0"(#"&
                                                  1                                      2                                            3
    5("<8(<"& @,+8&                                    ;#8<=': %#8(0"                               !&"(+#".(%0                           M"<>+,: 98.>0"(#"

1 <-7#%$--&3 %(-2)                                                                                        27K                                    27K

                                                                                             1K
2 J>/2%#                                                                                     (5%)
                                                                                                                                          2#+7#+#07$#


     <-7#%$--$$                                       :"--(3 +;$-"%&3 -$
3                                                       /%$,+#"0'8$#+8                                         28K                                      35K
     /%2&*02,+#02
                                                        %$"'&+#&5-(> 0                                                       2K                                    8K
4 P)+/2%#1                                              +08*& + #$)7B&>                                                     (7%)                                 (23%)

     I"+/%$,$'$-&$ 0-7#%.
                                                      -$0(+2)&> 7%20-$>
                                                                                                      20K             7.5K 0.5K                26K              8K   1K
5                                                         /%&+7#+#0&8                                (70%)           (28%) (2%)               (75%)           (23%) (2%)
     /%2&*02,+#0"
                                                           &>/2%#" &
6 I"+/%$,$'$-&$                                           &-2+#%"--(=                                    ...          ...                        ...           ...
  '2)"'1-(= OEM
                                                            &6%2)20
7 I"+/%$,$'$-&$ &-2+#%.                                                                                                         ...                                      ...
  '2)"'&*20"--(= OEM

8 I"+/%$,$'$-&$ M)+/2%#"

    ?22#0$#+#0&$                                                                              !
                                                                                              !       @
                                                                                                      @          5
                                                                                                                 5          B
                                                                                                                            B             !
                                                                                                                                          !     @
                                                                                                                                                @         5
                                                                                                                                                          5          B
                                                                                                                                                                     B
    &-#$%$+"> )'.5$0(=
    75"+#-&)20
                                                                                                                                                I2++&3+)&$ -$*"0&+&>($ QW!
                                                                                                                                                I2+. QW! 0 /"%#-$%+#0$
1. P)+/2%# 0 42'1E&-+#0$ +'75"$0 0 G2%>$ +42%25-(= )2>/'$)#20, ,'8 '2)"'1-23 +42%)& 0 +#%"-$-&>/2%#$%$
J+#25-&)&: K">"*, L"*, ?2''$%+; Global Insight; P)+/$%#-"8 L%7//"; A-"'&* BCG                                                                   J-2+#%"--($ OEM
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                            24
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00                                           RA        RKA LKA A0#
5?#+&"'' >"&8('4#.8' +# "&3)'4&G(./ >0 +#01I0$'-,-
01F#-&- '+%#.('?':
 M)G4#%,#
 >&"&-#(",                                        1 ;#8<=': %#8(0"                      2             !&"(+#".(%0                         3 M"<>+,: 98.>0"(#"

M0)-%0 "0..':.8'I                                                                           -$+)2'1)2, 0 /"%#-$%+#0$ +
                                                  :"--(3 +;$-"%&3 -$                                                                                         -$+)2'1)2
'2"080%                                                                                           &-2+#%"--(>&
W"0%#+* .0("<$+'4#.(%&
                                                     /%$,+#"0'8$#+8
                                                                                                      /"%#-$%+#02 IP                                            IP
. 2)01&)*+,-' OEM                                    %$"'&+#&5-(> 0
K08&)*+,# OEM                                       +08*& + #$)7B&>
                                                                                                                   -                                               -
# >)&(N0"-                                         -$0(+2)&> 7%20-$>
K08&)*+,# OEM                                     /%&+7#+#0&8 &>/2%#"                                              -                                               -
# -0$#)#:                                             & &-2+#%"--(=
E1F#- >"0'3%0$.(%& /                                     &6%2)20                                              28K / 1.5                                      35K / 1.9
%,"<48& 2020 (€ -)"$.)1
                                                        P#01I0$'-,#
                                                        '+%#.('?'', € -)"$.
                                                                                                                         C"%#-$%(
                                                                               !2,$%-&*";&8
                                                                              7+#. >2B-2+#$3
                                                                                                      0,1                L2+.6"%"-#&&
                                                                                                                                                0,1
                                                             OEM             :2/2'-&#$'1-($
                                                                                                      0,0                C%8>2$ 62+.
                                                                                    >2B-2+#&
                                                                                      920($                              G&-"-+&%20"-&$
                                                                                                      0,0                                       0,0
                                                              PT                    >2B-2+#&
                                                                                         OES            0,5                                       0,5
                                                             OES
                                                                                 C'"#G2%>(,
                                                                                                                       0,6                                      0,6
                                                              R&D                    >2,$'&
                                                                                        <+$62                 1,2                                       1,2
                                                          J+#25-&)               L2+7,"%+#02                           50%                            75%              25%
                                                          G&-"-+.                   K2>/"-&&          50%

                                                                                                0,0          0,5         1,0        1,5   0,0          0,5             1,0   1,5
                                                              Q+%#.('?''
                                                            A,"<48& 2010-2020                               9.5%                                             7.9%
1. Q4N$> 0(%75)& 7)"*"- 0 #$)7B&= ;$-"=, /%& ,2/7B$-&8= 2 +%$,-&= ;$-"= /2 +$6>$-#"> "0#247+-262 %(-)" & 0$+"= M#&= +$6>$-#20 0 2020 6. +%$,-88 ;$-" "0#247+" +2+#"0'8$# 2.4 >'-. %74.
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                                25
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00




50$#"6&+'#
7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)'
;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'#
@&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#:
 • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8
 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)"
@&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80%
A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#('
B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"&
C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/
!"')06#+'/
 • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#">
 • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8=
 • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A



!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                   26
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

 !0 ("#- .?#+&"'/-, ("#1<#-,# '+%#.('?'' .<=#.(%#++0
 "&3)'4&G(./
         P#01I0$'-,#                                    1                                                       2                                       3        M"<>+,:
          '+%#.('?''                                         ;#8<=': %#8(0"                                             !&"(+#".(%0                             98.>0"(#"
         € -)"$.
                              !2,$%-&*";&8                                       A0#247+(        C"%#-$%(
                                                        2.4                                                              3.8                                    3.8
                             7+#. >2B-2+#$3                                      LKA             L2+.6"%"-#&&
         OEM
                                                                                 RKA             C%8>2$ 62+.
                           920($ >2B-2+#&               0.0                                      G&-"-+&%20"-&$          1.3                                          5.8
                                                                                 RA

           PT              920($ >2B-2+#&                1.2                                                               2.6                                          4.0

          OES              920($ >2B-2+#&                    3.2                                                                 7.8                                             11.7
                         9JQKI /'"#G2%>,                            12,8                                                               12,4                                                  9,3
          R&D                    >2,$'$3               5.3                                                                9.5                                           14.5

                                          J#262                           12                                                                  25                                                   40

      J+#25-&)                   L2+7,"%+#02                 25%                                                                 50%                                  75%             25%
      G&-"-+.
                                    K2>/"-&&                   75%                                                              50%

                                                   0         10      20     30     40       50                      0     10     20    30     40   50       0    10         20   30     40     50
  Q+%#.('?''
A,"<48& 2010-2020


         J#262                                                             2.3%                                                   3.6%                                      4.7%

     ? 75$#2>
      9JQKI                                                                4.7%                                                   5.5%                                      5.8%
    *" %74$F2>
 J+#25-&): %$*7'1#"#( 24+7F,$-&8 M)+/$%#-23 6%7//(
 !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                                               27
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

P& 1&3# .("&(#2'4#.8'I 8"'(#"'#%, ("#1<#-,I '+%#.('?':
' "#&)'3<#-0.(' %,1"&+, ?#)#%,# .?#+&"''
                                                                                   1                   2                                   3
                                                                                         ;#8<=':                          J&8",(,:              M"<>+,:
                   M)G4#%,# .(0"0+,                                5#20$+/                %#8(0"       !&"(+#".(%0         ",+081
                                                                                                                                1              98.>0"(#"


                  • C2)%(#&$ 0-7#%$--$62 +/%2+"
                    0-7#%$--&> /%2&*02,+#02>
  OEM             • <(+2)"8 ,2'8 M)+/2%#"
                  • ?24+#0$--($ /2*&#&0-($ 4%$-,(


                  • K'.5$0($ )2>/'$)#7.B&$ &
                    +(%1$0"8 4"*" 0 I2++&&
                  • !")+&>"'1-"8 '2)"'&*";&8
  OES             • :2+#&F$-&$ MGG$)#" >"+E#"4"
                  • :2+#&F$-&$ 6'24"'1-262
                    +#2&>2+#-262 /%$&>7B$+#0"



                  • ?24+#0$--"8 4"*" 9JQKI /
     IP             /"#$-#20



                  • I$"'&+#&5-2+#1
                  • :2'62+%25. 7+#235&02+#1 +;$-"%&8
                  • I"*>$% &-0$+#&;&3 62+-0" (€ >'%,)
                                                                                            4                12.5                               30 (+10)


   Q(020%,: "#:('+2 .?#+&"'#%                                                               3                 1                                    2

                                                                9$ +22#0$#+#07$# ;$'8>     Y"+#&5-2 +22#0$#+#07$# ;$'8>   C2'-2+#1. +22#0$#+#07$# ;$'8>

1. ?;$-"%&3 «V")%(#(3 %(-2)» -$02*>2F$- )") +">2+#28#$'1-(3
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                        28
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00




A,1"&++,# ?#)#%,# .?#+&"'' "&3)'4&G(./ >0 .#2-#+(&-
                                                      1 ;#8<=':       2                   3 M"<>+,:
    5#2-#+(,                      5#20$+/                %#8(0"           !&"(+#".(%0       98.>0"(#"                        !0/.+#+'/



  K#280%,#                                              ,2 2020                      -" 2030 ?                • I$"'&+#&5-(3 +;$-"%&3 0 0&,7 -$=0"#)&
                                                                                                                +24+#0$--23 '&)0&,-2+#& -" %"*0&#&$,
 &%(0-01')'                                                                                                     2#+#"0"-&8 /2 J?, #$=-2'26&5$+)23 4"*$



   K#28'#                                               ,2 2020                      -" 2030 ?                • I$"'&+#&5-(3 +;$-"%&3 0 0&,7 -$=0"#)&
80--#"4#.8'#                                                                                                    +24+#0$--23 '&)0&,-2+#& -" %"*0&#&$,
 &%(0-01')'                                                                                                     2#+#"0"-&8 /2 J?, #$=-2'26&5$+)23 4"*$



                                                                                                              • < 0&,7 #$)7B$62 /2'2F$-&$ %2++&3+)&= QW!
  B"<30%,#                                                          ,2 2020                                     & &= )2-)7%$-#-(= /%$&>7B$+#0
 &%(0-01')'                                                                                                   • < *-"5&#$'1-23 >$%$ %$"'&*7$#+8 *" +5$#
                                                                                                                /%8>(= &-2+#%"--(= &-0$+#&;&3


                                                                                                              • < 0&,7 ,2>&-&%7.B$62 /2'2F$-&8
                                                                    ,2 2020
   L%(01<.,                                                                                                     %2++&3+)&= QW!, $,&-23 )2>/2-$-#-23 4"*(
                                                                                                                + 6%7*20(>& "/>
                                                                                                              • C2,,$%F&0"$#+8 #"%&G-(>& >$%">&


                                                        ,2 2020                      -" 2030 ?                • ?7B$+#07.B"8 4"*" /2+#"0B&)20,
 !0.(&%='8'                                                                                                     G")#&5$+)&, ,2'F-" 4(#1 2#+#%2$-" + -7'8 +
                                                                                                                2%&$-#";&$3 -" /20(E$--($ #%$420"-&8 ?C
                                                                                                                & '2)"'&*20"--(= &-2+#%"--(= OEM



!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                      29
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

V#)#%0: )&+$D&N( &%(0-01')#.("0'(#)*+0: 0("&.)'
@0..'' % 2020 20$<
                                                                                                                B"<30%,# &/- –                  L%(01<., –
                                                                                                                  .?#+&"':                       .?#+&"':
      5("<8(<"&                          KL – .?#+&"':                       KML – .?#+&"':                                                      "8"<>+,:
                                                                                                                  "8"<>+,:
       @,+8&                             ">&"(+#".(%0"                       ">&"(+#".(%0"                                                      98.>0"(#""
                                                                                                                 98.>0"(#""

                                                                                      350K                        190K                              27K
1 <-7#%$--&3 %(-2)                                    3.6M

                                                                             70K                                                              2#+7#+#07$#
                                     700K                                                                        2#+7#+#07$#
2 J>/2%#                            (~20%)
                                                                           (~20%)


    <-7#%$--$$                                          3.15M                            330K                                                            35K
3                                                                                                                     280K
    /%2&*02,+#02
                                                                  250K                            50K                            90K                                8K
4 P)+/2%#                                                         (8%)                          (15%)                           (50%)
                                                                                                                                      100K
                                                                                                                                                                  (23%)

    I"+/%$,$'$-&$                              1.65M            1.5M                   305K        25K         110K      110K   55K               26K            8K 1K
5                                               52%             48%                    93%         7%          40%       40%                     (75%)         (23%) (2%)
    0-7#%. /%2&*02,+#0"                                                                                                         20%


6 I"+/%$,$'$-&$                                                                                                                                    ...          ...
  '2)"'1-(= OEM

7 I"+/%$,$'$-&$ &-2+#%.                                           ...                               ...                          ..                                   ...
  '2)"'&*20"--(= OEM
  I"+/%$,$'$-&$
8
  M)+/2%#"


                                                                                                                C%2&*02,+#02 %2++&3+)&=      I2++&3+)&$ -$*"0&+&>($ QW!
                                                                                                          ?K
                                                                                                                4%$-,20 *" %74$F2>           I2+. QW! 0 /"%#-$%+#0$
J+#25-&): KAMAZ; GAZ; Sollers; Global Insight; >2,$'1 %(-)" BCG; "-"'&* BCG                                                                  J-2+#%"--($ OEM
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                   30
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

W 8&6$020 '3 +&>"&%)#+': >0 '+%#.('?'/- #.(* +#.80)*80
%03-06+,I '.(04+'80% N'+&+.'"0%&+'/
        P#01I0$'-,# '+%#.('?''1                                                            A03-06+,# N0"-&(, '+%#.('?':
                                                                                A)06#+'/ % .03$&+'# +0%,I -0=+0.(#:, -0$#"+'3&?'G
                                                                                  .<=#.(%<G='I – OEM / @; / OES
                                                                                • C%$,2+#"0'$-&$ ,2'62+%25-262 G&-"-+&%20"-&8 (,2 10 '$#) /2
                                                                                  %(-25-(> +#"0)"> (HD – 24$+/$5&#1 G2-,&%20"-&$)
                !2,$%-&*";&8                                A0#247+(            • ?74+&,&%20"-&$ )%$,&#-(= +#"02) ,'8 #$=/$%$022%7F$-&8 &
                                         3.8
               7+#. >2B-2+#$3                               LKA                   -20262 +#%2&#$'1+#0" – ,2 100% 75$#-23 +#"0)& HD
                                                            RKA                 • U&-"-+&%20"-&$ 62+7,"%+#02> +#%2&#$'1+#0" &-G%"+#%7)#7%( &
    OEM
                        920($                               RA                    &-F$-$%-(= 24N$)#20, 0 #.5. #$=-2/"%)20 & &-,7+#%&"'1-(= *2-
                                            3.2
                      >2B-2+#&                                                    (G$,$%"'1-(3 & >$+#-(3 4.,F$#( 5$%$* #%"-+G$%)
                                                                                • C%8>2$ 75"+#&$ 0 )"/&#"'$ 0 2#-2E$-&& /%2$)#20 +2 +%2)">&
                        920($
                                                                                  2)7/"$>2+#& +0(E$ 10 '$# (*"62#20&#$'1-($ & &-($ /$%$,$'()
                                                2.6                             • ?-&F$-&$ #">2F$--(= /2E'&- -" 2#,$'1-($ 0&,(
      PT              >2B-2+#&
                                                                                  #$=-2'26&5$+)262 242%7,20"-&8
                                                                                • U&-"-+&%20"-&$ /%&24%$#$-&8 /%2&*02,+#0$--(= ")#&020 *"
                        920($
    OES               >2B-2+#&
                                                      7.8                         %74$F2> 62+7,"%+#0$--(>& 4"-)">& + /2+'$,7.B$3 /%2,"F$3
                                                                                  %2++&3+)&> 4&*-$+-+#%7)#7%">
                       9JQKI                                                    A)06#+'/ % '+(#))#8(<&)*+<G .01.(%#++0.(*
                     /'"#G2%>,                                     12.4         • L2+7,"%+#0$--2$ G&-"-+&%20"-&$ &--20";&2--(= 9JQKI
    R&D                >2,$'$3
                                                                                • R162#-2$ -"'26224'2F$-&$ %"+=2,20 -" 9JQKI
                                                                                • U&-"-+&%20"-&$ /%&24%$#$-&8 &-F&-&%&-620(= )2>/"-&3 *"
                           J#262         14.9                    26.81            %74$F2> 62+7,"%+#0$--(>& 4"-)">& + /2+'$,7.B$3 /%2,"F$3
                                                                                  %2++&3+)&> 4&*-$+-+#%7)#7%">
                                                                                • ?-&F$-&$ #">2F$--(= /2E'&- -" 2#,$'1-($ 0&,(
                                    0          10     20          30      40
                                                                                  &++'$,20"#$'1+)262 & #$=-2'26&5$+)262 242%7,20"-&8
                                                                                • U&-"-+&%20"-&$ /%26%">> /2,62#20)& )",%20, 0 #.5. 0 >&%20(=
                                                                                  #$=-2'26&5$+)&= ;$-#%"= *" %74$F2>
1. ?;$-"%&3 "/"%#-$%+#02" ,'8 RA & RKA, +;$-"%&3 ")%7/-(3 M)+/2%#$%" ,'8 6%7*20&)20 & "0#247+20
J+#25-&): <+#%$5" %"425$3 6%7//(
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                              31
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00




50$#"6&+'#
7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)'
;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'#
@&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#:
 • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8
 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)"
@&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80%
A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#('
B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"&
C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/
!"')06#+'/
 • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#">
 • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8=
 • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A



!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                   32
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

@0..':.8&/ 1&3& >0.(&%='80% -#+## "&3%'(&, 4#- +&
$"<2'I ",+8&I BRIC – >"'-#", 98.>0"(&

                                                                                                                                                       $1.7
                                                                                                                                           @0..'/1     >'%,.

                                                                                                                                  • A))7>7'8#2%(
                                                                                                                                  • R&+#20"8/'&#"8/+0"%25-"8
                                                                                                                                    +#"'1
                                                                                                                                  • ?#$)'2
                                                                                                                                  • K%"+)"
                                                                                                                                  • C'"+#>"++20($ ,$#"'&
                                         $9.1                                                                                       2#,$')&
                H"&3')'/                >'%,.                                                                                     • @#">/20)"

  • A'.>&-&$0($ ,$#"'&
  • O2%>2*
  • K2'$-5"#(3 0"'                                                                                                                                   $30.0
  • D'2)& ;&'&-,%20, 62'20)&                                                                                                      M'(&:              >'%,.
    )'"/"-20 & )"%#$%(                                                             $3.0
                                                                    Q+$'/          >'%,.           • O2%>2*"                          • ?&+#$>" /2,26%$0"
  • C2%E-& ,0&6"#$'$3
  • K2%24)& /$%$,"5                                                                                • P'$)#%2/%202,)"                  • L&,%"0'&5$+)&$
                                                      • D2'#(
  • O2/'&0-($ -"+2+(                                                                               • P'$)#%2--($ +&+#$>(                ,$#"'&
                                                      • P'$)#%2/%202,)"
                                                                                                   • R&#($ &'&                        • C'"+#>"++20($/
                                                      • R&#"8 +#"'1
                                                                                                     E#">/20"--($                       %$*&-20($ ,$#"'&
                                                      • K2'$-5"#(3 0"'
                                                                                                     ,$#"'& ,0&6"#$'8                 • I",&2
                                                      • K2%24)& /$%$,"5
                                                                                                   • C%$,2=%"-&#$'&/                  • !&)%2G2-(
      P)+/2%# )2>/'$)#7.B&= ,'8                       • IT/ /%2$)#&%2025-($
                                                                                                     /$%$)'.5"#$'&                    • K2'$+", ,$#"'&
      "0#2>24&'$+#%2$-&8, 2008                          +$%0&+(
                                                                                                   • ?#$)'2                             +&,$-&3
                                                      • R">/(
                                                      • ?0"%-($ 6"3)&
1. <2*>2F-($ -"5"'1-($ #25)&: I2++&8 /2)" -$ -" 7%20-$ ,%76&= +#%"- BRIC
J+#25-&): Global Insight; UN Comtrade Database; A-"'&* /%$++(; :"--($ )2%/2%";&3; J-#$%01. )2>/"-&3; L2,20($ 2#5$#(; A-"'&* BCG
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                            33
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

K'D* +#.80)*80 -#6$<+&"0$+,I >0.(&%='80% <6#
0"2&+'30%&)' >"0'3%0$.(%0 % @0..''




                                                                                                                              J* 120 0$,7B&=
                                                                                                                              >&%20(=
                                 K"'&-&-6%",
                                                                                                                              /2+#"0B&)20,
                                                       ?"-)#-C$#$%47%6
                                                                                                                              #2'1)2 12
                                                             !2+)0"
                                                                                                                              2+7B$+#0'8.#
                                                                      9.92062%2,
                                                                                                                              ,$8#$'1-2+#1 0
                                                                                                                              I2++&& 0
                                                  K"'76"                       JF$0+)                                         -$*-"5&#$'1-(=
                                     O"6"-%26               O2'18##&/?">"%"                                                   24N$>"=
                                                                           9"4.Y$'-(            W)"#$%&-47%6

                               Y$%)$++)




                                                                                                                           :$3+#07.B&$   C'"-&%7$>($




                                    H0)*D'+.(%0 >0.(&%='80% "&3-#=&G( >"0'3%0$.(%0 %
                                       .<=#.(%<G='I ?#+("&I &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)'
J+#25-&): Avtostat; Expert Online; Global Insight; J-#$%01. BCG
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                    34
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

    E4#+* +'38': <"0%#+* 80+?#+("&?'' ."#$' +#3&%'.'-,I
    "0..':.8'I OES




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     R)#8("0+. .'.(.
                                                                                                                                                                                    5'.(. 0I)&6$#-




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     R)#8("0+. .'.(.
                                                                                                                                                                                    5'.(. 0I)&6$#-
                                              5'.(#-& >0$&-
                    010"<$0%&+'#




                                                                                                                                                                                    +'/ $%'2&(#)/
                                              5'.(#-& >0$&-
                    010"<$0%&+'#




                                                                                                                                                                                    +'/ $%'2&(#)/
                                                                                                                                                          J&$+'# $%#"'




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         M0)-%0 0I%&4.
                                                                                                                                                          J&$+'# $%#"'




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         M0)-%0 0I%&4.
                                                                                                                                 A#+(')/?'/,
                                                                                                                                 A#+(')/?'/,
                                                                                                                                 0I)&6$#+'#
                                                                          L8.#..<&",




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     <>"&%)#+'/
                                                                                       <>"&%)#+'#




                                                                                                                                 0I)&6$#+'#
                                                                          L8.#..<&",




                                                                                                                                                                                                             A,I)0>+&/




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     <>"&%)#+'/
                                                                                       <>"&%)#+'#
                                              4' (0>)'%&




                                                                                                                                                                                                             A,I)0>+&/




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5?#>)#+'#
                                              4' (0>)'%&




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5?#>)#+'#
                                                              C%'2&(#)*
                                                              C%'2&(#)*




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         8&(#20"':
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               !08",('#
                                   !#"#$+'#




                                                                                                                                               !#"#$+//




                                                                                                                                                                         !#"#$&4'




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          !0$%#.8&




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         8&(#20"':
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               !08",('#
                                   !#"#$+'#




                                                                                                                                                                                                                         !"'10",
                                                                                                                                               !#"#$+//




                                                                                                                                                                         !#"#$&4'




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          !0$%#.8&
                    R)#8("0-




                                                                                                                                                                                                                         !"'10",
                                                                                                    5'$#+'/




                                                                                                                       ;0"-03&
                    R)#8("0-




                                                                                       @<)#%0#


                                                                                                    5'$#+'/




                                                                                                                                                                                                             .'.(#-&
                                                                                                                       ;0"-03&
                                                                                       @<)#%0#




                                                                                                                                                                                                             .'.(#-&
                                                                                                                                               >&+#)*
                                                                                                              M0)#.&




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                C"<20#
                                                                                                                                               >&+#)*




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       C+'=#
                                                                                                              M0)#.&




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                C"<20#
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       C+'=#
                                   $%#"'




                                                                                                                                                                                                     M<30%
                                   $%#"'




                                                                                                                                                                                                     M<30%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               @&-&

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        E8+&
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               @&-&

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        E8+&
     P&3%&+'#
     P&3%&+'#
      2"<>>,
      2"<>>,

UAT (AutoComp)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                25
          AutoC                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               24
        KRISTA                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                25
       AV.AGR                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            17
            DSK                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          18
        TADEM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              24
     AVTOKOM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  23
           UMM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               6
         SAvZh                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     13
         Norma                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2
            TNT                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1
          TZTO                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                25
           Polad                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              24
            EPK                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              7
          AutoK                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           3
     Termoform                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2
          Itelma                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             6
            Tital                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             8
      BelAvDet                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     13
     Technores                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               6
         :%76&$
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                97
                        77                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Ø 14
                                                  53           65
          K2'-02                     48                                   41             41                            42            33                   32              36            36            38                                        39                                     33
                                                                                                    29        24                                 29                                                             31       30         25                    31                                    22      23                    Ø 39
     75"+#-&)20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          17
     0 )"#$62%&&
                                                                                                                                                                               :2'8 24N$>" )"#$62%&&:                              <5%           5–25%                25–50%                   50–75%          75–100%
    C%&>$5"-&$: A-"'&* 2+-20"- -" +#%7)#7%$ *")7/2) 0$,7B&= %2++&3+)&= /%2&*02,&#$'$3, 0)'.5"8 #2'1)2 /2+#"0)& -" /$%0&5-(3 %(-2)
    J+#25-&): Avtostat; J-#$%-$#-+"3#( )2>/"-&3; A-"'&* BCG; Q/(# /%2$)#20 BCG
    !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  35
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

E( %#"('8&)' 8 20"'30+(&)' – .I#-& "#.("<8(<"'3&?''
)&+$D&N(& "0..':.8'I >0.(&%='80% &%(080->0+#+(0%
              "                                                                                                  "
           -#                                                                                                 -#
      ! "'                    5<=#.(%<G=': )&+$D&N( –
                                                                                                         ! "'                H<$<=': )&+$D&N( –
                             %#"('8&)*+,# "&32"&+'4#+'/                                                                 20"'30+(&)*+&/ .>#?'&)'3&?'/

                                                   !0.(&%='8' >0$
                                                   !0.(&%='8' >0$   P#3&%'.'-,#
                                                                    P#3&%'.'-,#
                                  ;'>,
                                  ;'>,               80+("0)#-
                                                     80+("0)#-       "0..':.8'#
                                                                     "0..':.8'#   Q+0.("&++,#
                                                                                  Q+0.("&++,#
                               >0.(&%='80%
                               >0.(&%='80%         >"0'3%0$'(#)#:
                                                   >"0'3%0$'(#)#:    >0.(&%='8'
                                                                     >0.(&%='8'    >0.(&%='8'
                                                                                   >0.(&%='8'                                         OEM1
                                                                                                                                      OEM1   OEM2
                                                                                                                                             OEM2    …
                                                                                                                                                     …

                            C%2$)#&%20"-&$ "/>                                                                 C%2$)#&%20"-&$ "/>
        C2#%$4-2+#1
         0 -27-="7




                                 :0&6"#$'&                                                                           :0&6"#$'&
                      OEM                                                                               OEM
                             U&-"'1-"8 +42%)"                                                                   U&-"'1-"8 +42%)"
                                    .
                                    .                                                                                    .
                                    .                                                                                    .
                                                                                                                         .
                            ?&+#$>" 7/%"0'$-&8                                                                 ?&+#$>" 7/%"0'$-&8
                      @/$    O2%>2*-"8 +&+#$>"                                                          @/$     O2%>2*-"8 +&+#$>"
                       1                                                                                 1
                             ?&+#$>" +&,$-&3                                                                    ?&+#$>" +&,$-&3
                                    .
                                    .                                                                                    .
                                                                                                                         .
                                    .                                                                                    .
                                 @$+#$%-&                                                                            @$+#$%-&
                      @/$   O2%>2*-($ )2'2,)&                                                           @/$    O2%>2*-($ )2'2,)&
                       2                                                                                 2
                                                                                                                                                                 2-3
                              K"%)"+ +&,$-&3
                                     .
                                                                                                                 K"%)"+ +&,$-&3
                                                                                                                         .
                                                                                                                                                             /2+#"0B&)"
                                     .
                                     .                                                                                   .
                                                                                                                         .                                    0 )"F,23
                                   R&#1$                                                                               R&#1$                                  )"#$62%&&
                      @/$       @#">/20)"                                                               @/$          @#">/20)"
                       3                                                                                 3
                                     …                                                                                  …
                                     .
                                     .                                                                                   .
                                     .                                                                                   .
C2#%$4-2+#1 0




                                                                                                                         .
 &-0$+#&;&8=




                            ?(%1$0($ >"#$%&"'(                                                                 ?(%1$0($ >"#$%&"'(
                      @/$                                                                               @/$
                       4     L"3)&, 42'#( & #.,.                                                         4      L"3)&, 42'#( & #.,.
                                     …                                                                                  …
                                     .
                                     .                                                                                   .
                                     .                                                                                   .
                                                                                                                         .



•          9$,2+#"#25-(3 >"+E#"4 /2+#"0B&)20 "0#2)2>/2-$-#20                                            • D2'1E&3 >"+E#"4, +/$;&"'&*";&8 -" -$42'1E2> -"42%$
•          C25#& -$# )2-)7%$-;&&, -&*)2$ )"5$+#02                                                         )"#$62%&3 /%2,7);&& ,'8 42'1E23 4"*( /2#%$4&#$'$3
•          9$# +#&>7'" &-0$+#&%20"#1 0 -20($ /%2,7)#(                                                   • 2-3 75"+#-&)" 0 )"F,23 )"#$62%&& ,'8 /%$,2#0%"B$-&8 >2-2/2'&&
•          < ,2'62+%25-23 /$%+/$)#&0$ – -$+/2+24-2+#1 24$+/$5&#1                                        • C20(E$-&$ )"5$+#0" *" +5$# +/$;&"'&*";&& & )2-)7%$-;&&
           )2>/2-$-#( ,'8 -20(= /%2,7)#20/&-2+#%"--(= /%2&*02,&#$'$3                                    • D2'$$ /%&0'$)"#$'1-(3 '"-,E"G# ,'8 ?C + 6'24"'1-(>&
                                                                                                          /2+#"0B&)">& "0#2)2>/2-$-#20
J+#25-&): A-"'&* BCG
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                  36
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

A .#2-#+(# KL ("#1<G(./ '+%#.('?'' % >"0'3%0$.(%0
80->0+#+(0% >0 10)*D'+.(%< 8)G4#%,I <3)0%
                                      V#)#%&/
E.+0%+,# 2"<>>,                       )08&)'3.                  C#(&)*+0# 0>'.&+'# +#01I0$'-,I 80->0+#+(0%                               P&3+&4#+'#

                                       60-70%         – L">>" 4$-*&-20(= ,0&6"#$'$3 %"425&> 24N$>2> 1.1-1.4-1.6-1.8-2-2.2 ' (Euro4-5)
        :0&6"#$'1                                                                                                                              RA

                                                      – !$="-&5$+)&$ )2%24)& /$%$,"5 & "0#2>"#&*&%20"--($ («%242#(»)
                                                      – P'$>$-#( +&+#$> /2'-262 /%&02,", 0 #.5. + "0#2>"#&5$+)&> 7/%"0'$-&$>                RA, RKA
      O%"-+>&++&8                      50-60%         – @IT?(



                                                      – !-262%(5"F-($ (/2,%7'&0".B&$) *",-&$ /2,0$+)& & 7/%"0'8$>($ +                       RA, RKA
                                         50%            &*>$-8$>23 F$+#)2+#1. ">2%#&*"#2%(
           @"++&                                      – I7'$0($ >$="-&*>( + 6&,%2- & M'$)#%27+&'&#$'8>&
                                                      – O2%>2*-($ >$="-&*>(, AD?, +&+#$>( +#"4&'&*";&& & "0#2>"#&*";&& ,0&F$-&8

                                                      –   ?&,$-18
        P'$>$-#(                                      –   J-+#%7>$-#"'1-($ & ,0$%-($ /"-$'& ,!)2>4&-";&& /%&42%20
                                                      –   ?&+#$>( +#$)'225&+#)&,!+#$)'2/2,N$>-&)&,!*">)& ,0$%$3                         RA, RKA, LKA, A0#
       &-#$%1$%" &                       60%
                                                      –   ?0$#2#$=-&)"
       M)+#$%1$%"
                                                      –   K'&>"#&5$+)&$ +&+#$>(


       P'$)#%2-                                       – L$-$%"#2%(, +#"%#$%(
                                                                                                                                        RA, RKA, LKA, A0#
                                         50%          – P'$)#%2>$=. /%&02,(, /$%$)'.5"#$'&
     242%7,20"-&$

       ?&+#$>(                                        – I$>-& 4$*2/"+-2+#& + /%$,-"#862>
                                                                                                                                        RA, RKA, LKA, A0#
      /"++&0-23                        30-40%         – C2,7E)& 4$*2/"+-2+#& ,'8 02,&#$'8 & /"++"F&%20
     4$*2/"+-2+#&
                                                      – I",&"#2%(,
          C%25$$                         70%          – ?&+#$>( /2,"5& #2/'&0"                                                          RA, RKA, LKA, A0#
                                                      – ?&+#$>( 0(/7+)" 2#%"42#"0E&= 6"*20
J+#25-&): 9ACAK
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                   37
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

!0 KML, 50))#". 3&>)&+'"0%&) %,.08<G )08&)'3&?'G
80->0+#+(0%, $0.(<>+,I 8 .0%-#.(+0-< '.>0)*30%&+'G
                                       E1F#-
E.+0%+,# 2"<>>,                       >"0'3-%&                  C#(&)*+0# 0>'.&+'# +#01I0$'-,I 80->0+#+(0%                    P&3+&4#+'#

                                    90 #(+. $,./62,   – :&*$'1-(3 2.3 ' - /%$,-"*-"5"$#+8 ,'8 Ducato & 0-$,2%2F-&)20 TAV
                                    (1-"8 25$%$,1)    – :&*$'1-(3 3 ' (,2/2'-&#$'1-(3 24N$>) – /%$,-"*-"5"$#+8 ,'8 '$6)&=
        :0&6"#$'1                                       6%7*20&)20 & "0#247+20                                              RKA, RA – SUV, LDT



                                    75 #(+. $,./62,   – K2%24)" /$%$,"5 ,'8 Ducato
                                    (1-"8 25$%$,1)    – P'$>$-#( +&+#$> /%&02,"
      O%"-+>&++&8                                                                                                                  RKA



                                                      – P'$>$-#( /2,0$+)&
           @"++&                                                                                                                   RKA



                                                      – C$%$,-&$ /"-$'&, )2>4&-";&& /%&42%20
        P'$>$-#(
                                                      – ?&,$-&8 & /2'
       &-#$%1$%" &                                    – K2>/2-$-#( 0-7#%$--$3 2#,$')&                                              RKA
       M)+#$%1$%"

                                                      – @#">/20"--($ ,$#"'& )7*20"
                                                      – C'"+#>"++20($ ,$#"'& )7*20"
   K7*20-($ ,$#"'&                                    – ?#$)'"                                                                     RKA



                                                      – ?&+#$>( 0(/7+)" 2#%"42#"0E&= 6"*20
                                                      – P'$)#%2242%7,20"-&$
          C%25$$                                      – K2'$+-($ ,&+)& & E&-(                                                      RKA


J+#25-&): ?2''$%+
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                      38
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00




50$#"6&+'#
7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)'
;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'#
@&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#:
 • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8
 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)"
@&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80%
A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#('
B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"&
C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/
!"')06#+'/
 • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#">
 • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8=
 • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A



!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                   39
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

M&+&), >"0$&6 "&3)'4&G(./ >0 .#2-#+(&-, +0 >0.)#-
>"0$&6+0# 01.)<6'%&+'# ' ",+08 3&>4&.(#: "&%+0 %&6+,
     M0->0+#+(,
(0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#('                                          KL                        KML                          BML   L%(01<.,

 !"0$&6' 4#"#3 $')#".8'#
          .#('



      !"0$&6' 8)G4#%,-
          8)'#+(&-



         !0.)#>"0$&6+0#
          01.)<6'%&+'#



       !0.(&%8' 3&>4&.(#:



                       A,"<48& &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#: 0( >0.)#>"0$&6+020 01.)<6'%&+'/ ."&%+'-&
                             . %,"<480: 0( >"0$&6' +0%,I -&D'+, ' 1<$#( ' $&)*D# "&.('
     ?#$/$-1 0"F-2+#1 )2>/2-$-#" #20"%2/%202,8B$3 +$#& /2 +$6>$-#7
J+#25-&): "-"'&* BCG
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                    40
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

!0.)#>"0$&6+0# 01.)<6'%&+'# 1<$#( >"'01"#(&(*
%&6+0.(* $)/ 980+0-'4#.80: .(&1')*+0.(' >"0$&6
         P& .#20$+/ 0.+0%+&/ >"'1,)*
       &%(0$')#"0% N0"-'"<#(./ 3& .4#(                                                        A 1<$<=#- 06'$&#(./ >"'1)'6#+'# 8
             >"0$&6' +0%,I -&D'+                                                                     #%"0>#:.80: -0$#)'
            5("<8(<"& >"'1,)' "0..':.8'I $')#"0%                                                !"'1,)* #%"0>#:.8'I $')#"0%: +& >"'-#"# B#"-&+''
:2'8 /%&4('& (%)                                                                           :2'8 /%&4('& (%)
100                                                                                         100
                                                 3-10%                                                                          7%


  80                          15-25%                                                         80



  60                                                                                         60

                                                               100%                  ?                             75%
                                                                                                                                          100%
  40                                                                                         40
           65-80%


  20                                                                                         20

                                                                                                     18%
   0                                                                                          0
          C%2,"F&            C2+'$-           C%2,"F&          J#262                              C%2,"F&         C2+'$-     C%2,"F&      J#262
          -20(= "/>        /%2,"F-2$         /2,$%F. "/>                                          -20(= "/>     /%2,"F-2$   /2,$%F. "/>
                              24+'.                                                                                24+'.




J+#25-&): 2/(# BCG; Deutsches Kraftfahrzeuggewerbe association (2008)
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                41
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

A (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#(' +#01I0$'- N08<. +&
>0.)#>"0$&6+0- 01.)<6'%&+''
  M0->0+#+(,                                                                                                                                    ;"#1<#-,#
    (0%&"0-                                                                                                                                       <.')'/
>"0%0$/=#: .#('                                         KL                              KML                  BML             L%(01<.,           "#2<)/(0"&

                                       •   :&'$%+)"8 +$#1 &>$$# ",$)0"#-2$       •   :&'$%+)"8 +$#1   •   D2'1E"8 5"+#1 /%2,"F B2B, /'2#-2+#1
                                           /2)%(#&$ +#%"-(, -$ 80'. 7*)&>            5"+#&5-2             ,&'$%+)23 +$#& -$ 0"F-"
  !"0$&6' 4#"#3                            >$+#2>                                    /$%$+$)"$#+8 +
                                       •   C2#%$4-2+#& 0 -20(= ,&'. ;$-#%"=          RA, -$ 80'.
    $')#".8'#                              02*-&)-7# -$ %"-1E$ 2013-2014             7*)&> >$+#2>
     ?#+(",                            •   Q#)%(#&$ ;$-#%" *"-&>"$# >"'2         •   D2'1E"8 ,2'8
                                           0%$>$-& (~6 >$+.)                         /%2,"F B2B


                                       •   < 42'1E&-+#0$ OEM -$ %"*0&#(         •    K'.5$0(3 )"-"' /%2,"F, =2%2E2 %"*0&# 7 #$)7B&= &6%2)20
       !"0$&6'                         •   Y"+#2 &,7# 5$%$* ,&'$%20             •    <2*>2F-($ 7'75E$-&8 /2 +&+#$>$ 24+'7F&0"-&8 )'.)'&$-#20
      8)G4#%,-                                                                       ,2'F-( 0-$,%8#1+8 +">&>& QW!

       8)'#+(&-

                                       •   CCQ -$ 80'8$#+8 2+-20-(>             •    ?$#& CCQ – 2,&- &* )'.5$0(= G")#2%20 /%2,"F
                                           G")#2%2> /%2,"F, -2 0'&8$# -"        •    O$)7B$$ /2)%(#&$ +$#& CCQ -$24=2,&>2 %"+E&%8#1 ,2
                                           02+/%&8#&$ )"5$+#0" / 4%$-,"              62%2,20 23 – 33 0$'&5&-
!0.)#>"0$&6+0#                         •   9$24=2,&>( +#"-,"%#( )"5$+#0"        •    <2*>2F-"8 %2'1 62+7,"%+#0" – /%$,2+#"0'$-&$
                                           CCQ, +2*,"-&$ +$%0&+-(= +$#$3 262         G&-"-+&%20"-&8, +2*,"-&$ #%$420"-&3 /2 +#"-,"%#">
 01.)<6'%&+'#                              7%20-8                                    24+'7F&0"-&8




                                       •   ?7B$+#0$--2$ ,2/2'-$-&$ ) +$#& CCQ
       !0.(&%8'                        •   < ,"--(3 >2>$-#, +7B$+#0$--"8 ,2'8 /2+#"02) */5 &,$# 5$%$* +$%($ %(-)&, -"%7E"8 /%"0" ,$%F"#$'$3
                                           #2%620(= >"%2)
       3&>4&.(#:                       •   <2*>2F-"8 %2'1 62+7,"%+#0" – %$67'&%20"-&$ +$)#2%", 2/%$,$'$-&$ +#"-,"%#20 )"5$+#0", /%$+$5$-&$
                                           -$'$6"'1-(= /2+#"02)



!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                     42
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00




50$#"6&+'#
7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)'
;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'#
@&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#:
 • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8
 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)"
@&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80%
A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#('
B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"&
C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/
!"')06#+'/
 • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#">
 • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8=
 • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A



!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                   43
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

H#+4-&"8'+2 >0$(%#"6$&#(, 4(0 -#", >0$$#"68'
&%(0>"0-& -02<( 1,(* <.')#+,
    M)G4#%,#
    9)#-#+(,
                                                            M'(&:                                                        H"&3')'/
    >0)'('8'

    W.')#+'#                                                                                        •   H$'$023 7%20$-1 '2)"'&*";&& – 30% +%"*7 /2+'$
                                    •   H$'$023 7%20$-1 '2)"'&*";&& – )") >&-&>7> 40%
                                                                                                        *"/7+)" /%2&*02,+#0"
     >"&%')                         •   Q48*"#$'1-"8 '2)"'&*";&8 /%2&*02,+#0"
                                                                                                    •   D'"62,"%8 2+#"'1-(> >$%"> – %$"'1-(3 7%20$-1
   )08&)'3&?''                          ,0&6"#$'$3
                                                                                                        '2)"'&*";&& ~80%
                                    •   U&-. & .%. /2,,$%F)" M&A OES & OEM
                                                                                                    •   C%$,2+#"0'$-&$ /%"0" %"--$62 0(=2," -" %(-2) &
                                    •   !&-. #%$420"-&8 ,'8 &-2+#%"--(= &-0$+#&;&3:
  W>"&%)#+'#                                                                                            /2+'$,7.B$$ 7F$+#25$-&$ #%$420"-&3 )
                                          – !&-. &-0$+#&;&& (2 >'%,. ."-$3)
 >&"(+#".(%&-'                                                                                          '2)"'&*";&& 24$+/$5&'& ,2>&-&%20"-&$ 3
                                          – R2)"'&*";&8 /%2&*02,+#0" ,0&6"#$'$3
                                                                                                        75"+#-&)20: VW, Fiat & GM
                                          – O2'1)2 -" 2+-20$ ?C, + ,2'8>& 50-50
                                    •   9"'26 -" &>/2%# CBU1 - 30% + 2#-2+&#$'1-2                   •   < 1995 62,7 -"'26 -" CBU 70$'&5$- + 20% ,270%,
                                        7,"'$--2$ 6$26%"G&5$+)2$ /2'2F$-&$                              *"#$> /2+#$/$--2 +-&F$- ,2 35% (0 -"+#.0%.). 9"'26
  J&='(& ",+8&                      •   H$'$023 7%20$-1 )2-+2'&,";&& – #2/-10 4%$-,20 =                 -" )2>/'$)#7.B&$ – ,2 40%
                                        90% %(-)"
                                    •   K2-)%$#-($ ;$'& /2 M)2'26&5$+)23 4$*2/"+-2+#&               •   V"#%"#( -" 9JQKI -$ 24'"6".#+8 -"'262>; +-&F$-
                                        (+-&F$-&$ 0(4%2+20 CO2)                                         -"'26 -" ")#&0(, &+/2'1*7$>($ ,'8 9JQKI
5('-<)'"0%&+'#
                                    •   10 >'%,. ."-$3 0(,$'$-( 0 2009 62,7 -" 9JQKI 0              •   L2+&-0$+#&;&& 0 9JQKI "'1#$%-"#&0-262
    PQEM@                               "0#2>24&'$+#%2$-&&                                              "6&4%&,-262" #2/'&0", 2+24. M#"-2'"
                                    •   ?74+&,&& -" %"*%"42#)7 M'$)#%2>24&'$3                       •   K2-;$-#%";&8 %(-)" ,'8 24$+/. 4%"*&'1+)262 9JQKI


5('-<)'"0%&+'#                      •   ?-&F$-&$ -"'26" -" /2)7/)7 0 /$%&2,( +-&F$-&8               •   V-"5&#$'1-($ -"'2620($ '162#( ,'8
    .>"0.&                              +/%2+" (2009)                                                   >"'2'&#%"F-(= "/>



     7#", >0                        •   C%26%">>( *">$-( "/> & +74+&,&& -" /%2&*02,+#02             •   :2'62+%25-2$ %$67'&%20"-&$, -"/%. ABS & /2,7E)&
   01+0%)#+'G                           >"'2'&#%"F-(= "/>                                               4$*2/"+-2+#& 248*"#$'1-( + 2014 62,"
      >&"8&
1. CBU – Completely Built Up (+24%"--(3 "0#2>24&'1)
J+#25-&): BCG
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                          44
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

E.+0%+,# -#"0>"'/('/ >0 20.<$&".(%#++0: >0$$#"68#
&%(0-01')*+0: >"0-,D)#++0.(' $0 2020 20$&
        5#2-#+(                                       2010 20$                        2011 – 2012 20$,                                   2013 – 2020
                                       •   C2,,$%F)" +/%2+" -" %(-)$ & >$%(
                                                                                  •   ?#%7)#7%-($ >$%2/%&8#&8 /2
                                           /2 24-20'$-&. /"%)"
                                                                                      /2,,$%F)$ +/%2+"
                                       •   I"*%"42#)" >$% #"%&G-262 &
                                                                                  •   C20(E$-&$ #%$420"-&3 /2
                                           -$#"%&G-262 %$67'&%20"-&8
                                                                                      '2)"'&*";&& ,'8 &-2+#%"--(=
                                       •   I"*%"42#)" & 0-$,%$-&$ /'"-"
                                                                                      )2>/"-&3
      L%(0                                 6'742)23 '2)"'&*";&& 4-5
                                                                                  •   ?2*,"-&$ +$%0&+-23 +$#& 262 7%20-8
                                                                                                                               •   ?%2) ,$3+#0&8 *"B&#-(= >$%
                                           &-2+#%"--(= QW!                                                                         *")"-5&0"$#+8 0 2016-2017 6. , +
  >"0'3%0$'(#)'                                                                                                                    ,"'1-$3E&> /$%$=2,2> -" %"42#7 0
                                       •   I$+#%7)#7%&*";&8 #$)7B&= ,2'620(= 248*"#$'1+#0 /%$,/%&8#&3                              %">)"= 6'24"'1-(= #2%620(=
                                       •   C2,62#20)" & %$"'&*";&8 /%26%">> %$+#%7)#7%&*";&& #%",&;&2--(= ")#&020                  +26'"E$-&3
                                           (A0#2<AV, LAV, TAV, VJR, KA!AV) + 0(,$'$-&$> )2>/2-$-#-(= /%2&*02,+#0 &
                                           /$%$,$'20                                                                           •   <-$,%$-&$ >$%2/%&8#&3 /2
                                       •   I"*%"42#)" +&+#$>-(= >$%2/%&8#&3 /2 /2,,$%F)$ M)+/2%#"                                  +#&>7'&%20"-&. &+/2'1*20"-&8
                                                                                                                                   %$+7%+2-+4$%$6".B$62 #%"-+/2%#"
                                       •   K2-+2'&,&%20"#1 /%&-8#&$ %$E$-&3
                                           /2 0(42%7 /2+#"0B&)20
                                                                                                                               •   I"*0&#&$ ,2%2F-23 &-G%"+#%7)#7%(,
                                       •   ?#&>7'&%20"-&$ &-2+#%"--(=             •   J-0$+#&;&& 0 +2*,"-&$ -20(=
                                                                                                                                   " #")F$ &-G%"+#%7)#7%(
                                           /2+#"0B&)20 1 7%20-8 ,'8 +2*,"-&8          /%2&*02,+#0 & %"*%"42#)7 -20(=
    !0.(&%='8'                             ?C (-$ >$-$$ 2 -"                          #$=-2'26&3
                                                                                                                                   &+/2'1*20"-&8 "'1#$%-"#&0-(=
                                                                                                                                   0&,20 #2/'&0" (CNG)
   (%8). .')0%,#                           )2>/2-$-#/7*$'/"6%$6"#)                •   C%2$)#( +(%1$0(= /$%$,$'20
                                       •   C%$,/%2$)#-($ &++'$,20"-&8 /2              ('&#$3-($, )7*-$5-($ & #.,.)
     &2"#2&(,)                             +2*,"-&. -20(= )2>/2-$-#-(=
                                           /%2&*02,+#0 & #$=-2'26&3

                                       •   K2-+2'&,";&8 2+-20-(= 6%7// %2++&3+)&= /2+#"0B&)20 +20>$+#-2 + O1, O2

                                       •   ?2*,"-&$ ;$-#%20 )2>/$#$-;&3 /2
                                           %"*%"42#)$ & /%$,2+#"0'$-&.            •   C%&0'$5$-&$ '&;$-*&3 2#                  •   ?20>$+#-2$ G&-"-+&%20"-&$ /2
                                           &-F&-&%&-620(= 7+'76, 0 #.5.               &-2+#%"--(= )2>/"-&3                         %"*%"42#)$ 6'24"'1-(= /'"#G2%> &
                                           +20>$+#-2 + &-2+#%"--(>&               •   C2)7/)" ")#&020 *" %74$F2>                   /$%+/$)#&0-(= /%2$)#20
          PQEM@                            /"%#-$%">& + $,&-23 )22%,&-";&$3

                                       •   K2-+2'&,";&8 &-F$-$%-(= /2,%"*,$'$-&3 OEM, >"++&%20"--($ &-0$+#&;&& 0 9JQKI
                                       •   I"*%"42#)" >$% /2,,$%F)& ,'8 /2,62#20)& )",%20 0 ")",$>&5$+)23 & /%&)'",-23 -"7)$
                                       •   <-$,%$-&$ /")$#" >$% 62+ G&-"-+&%20"-&8 /$%$,20(= %"*%"42#2)


!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                  45
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

C)/ %0>)0=#+'/ "&3)'4+,I .?#+&"'#% ("#1<G(./ "&3+,#
-#", 20.<$&".(%#++020 "#2<)'"0%&+'/
  M)G4#%,#
  9)#-#+(,                         ;#8<=':
                           1                                      2     !&"(+#".(%0                                  3      M"<>+,: 98.>0"(#"
  >0)'('8'                         %#8(0"

                                                                                                             •   U&-"-+&%20"-&$ -$ >$-$$ 75% 2# &-0$+#&;&3 -"
                                                      •   A);$-# ,$8#$'1-2+#& /%"0&#$'1+#0" -" /22B%$-&$
                                                                                                                 9JQKI 62+-02>
                                                          +2#%7,-&5$+#0" %2+. & *"%74. )2>/"-&3 & %"*0&#&$
                                                                                                             •   C%$,2+#"0'$-&$ 62+. 6"%"-#&3 /2 )%$,&#"> -" /2)7/)7
                           •   9$# 2+2423 /2'&#&)&        62+7,"%+#0$--2-5"+#-262 /"%#-$%+#0" 0 9JQKI
                                                                                                                 & %"*%"42#)7 9JQKI
     PQEM@                     +#&>7'&%20"-&8         •   U&-"-+&%20"-&$ -$ >$-$$ 50% &-0$+#&;&3 -"
                                                                                                             •   ?74+&,&& -" %2+. %"*%"42#)& & *")7/)& &-2+#%"--23
                               9JQKI                      9JQKI 62+-02>
                                                                                                                 J? ('&42 M&A 0 9JQKI)
                                                      •   C%$,2+#"0'$-&$ 62+. 6"%"-#&3 /2 )%$,&#"> -"
                                                                                                             •   ?74+&,&& +2*,"-&8 ;$-#%" 9JQKI + ;$'1.
                                                          /2)7/)7 & %"*%"42#)7 9JQKI
                                                                                                                 7-&G&)";&& )2>/2-$-#-23 4"*( /2 HCV & "0#247+">

                                                                                                             •   C20(E$-&$ #"%&G" -" &>/2%# 62#20(=1 "/> ,2 80%, +
                           •   O$)7B&3 7%20$-1        •   C20(E$-&$ #"%&G" -" &>/2%# 62#20(=1 "/> ,2
                                                                                                                 /2+'$,7.B&> +-&F$-&$> ,2 30% 0 2020
                               #"%&G20 -" 002*            40%
                                                                                                             •   ?74+&,&& %2++&3+)&> OEM -" >2,$%-&*";&. /%2&*0.
                               62#20(= "/> &          •   C22B%$-&$ +2*,"-&8 ?C + *"%74$F-(>& /%-'8>&
    L%(0-                                                                                                        >2B-2+#$3
                               -$*-"5&#$'1-($         •   Q6%"-&5$-&$ ,2'& &-. /"%#-$%20 -" 7%20-$ 50%
>"0'3%0$'(#)'                                                                                                •   A)#&0-2$ &+/2'1*20"-&$ 62+. *")"*20
                               7+&'&8, -"/%"0'. -"    •   ?74+&,&& -" '2)"'&*";&. & 70$'&5. >2B-2+#$3
                                                                                                             •   :'&--($ )%$,. %$+7%+( /2 +/2-+&%20"--23
                               '2)"'&*";&.            •   :'&--($ )%$,. %$+7%+( /2 +/2-+&%20"--23
                                                                                                                 MGG$)#&0-23 )%$,&#-23 +#"0)$
                               /%2&*02,+#0"               MGG$)#&0-23 )%$,&#-23 +#"0)$
                                                                                                             •   K2>/'$)+-"8 /%26%">>" /2,,$%F)& M)+/2%#"

                                                      •   C20(E$-&$ #"%&G" -" &>/2%# )2>/2-$-#20 ,2 40%
                                                                                                             •   C20(E$-&$ #"%&G" -" &>/2%# )2>/2-$-#20 ,2 40%
                                                      •   ?74+&,&& -" &-0$+#&;&& OES 0 +2*,. + -7'8 &
                                                                                                             •   J-0$+#&;&& & +/2-+2%+)"8 /2,,$%F)" %2++&3+)&= OES
                                                          %"*0&#&$ &>$.B. /%2&*02,+#0. >2B-2+#$3 (25% -
                                                                                                                 ,'8 >2,$%-&*";&& /%2&*02,+#0$--(= >2B-2+#$3 (75%
                                                          62+-02)
                           •   O$)7B&3 7%20$-1                                                                   - 62+-02)
                                                      •   C22B%$-&$ +2*,"-&8 ?C & )2-+2'&,";&&
!"0'3%0$.(%0                   +74+&,&3 & /%25"8                                                             •   P)+/2%#-($ +74+&,&& -" /%2&*0$,$--($ 0 I2++&&
                                                      •   :&%$)#&0-($ #%$420"-&8 /2 '2)"'&*";&&
80->0+#+(0%                    /2,,$%F)" >$+#-(=
                                                          )'.5$0(= )2>/2-$-#20
                                                                                                                 )2>/2-$-#(
                               & &-2+#%. OES                                                                 •   :&%$)#&0-($ #%$420"-&8 /2 '2)"'&*";&& )'.5$0(=
                                                      •   O%$420"-&8 /2 '2)"'&*";&& 50% 5$%$* 5 '$# /2+'$
                                                                                                                 )2>/2-$-#20
                                                          -"5"'" /%2&*02,+#0"
                                                                                                             •   D$+/2E'&--(3 *"02* >"#$%&"'20 ,'8 /%-0"
                                                      •   D$+/2E'&--(3 *"02* >"#$%&"'20 ,'8 /%-0"
                                                                                                                 )2>/2-$-#20 /$%0($ 3 62,"
                                                          )2>/2-$-#20 /$%0($ 3 62,"



C%&>$5"-&$: 7)"*"--($ +;$-"%&& /%&>$-&>( -$ )2 0+$> +$6>$-#">
1. L2#20(> +5&#"$#+8 "/>, +24%"--(3 42'$$, 5$> -" 60%
J+#25-&): P)+/$%#-"8 L%7//"
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                              46
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

M"0-# (020, %+# 3&%'.'-0.(' 0( ?#)#%020 .?#+&"'/, +<6#+
01=': +&10" -#" >0$$#"68' ",+8&
  M)G4#%,#
  9)#-#+(,                         ;#8<=':
                           1                                    2     !&"(+#".(%0                                 3   M"<>+,: 98.>0"(#"
  >0)'('8'                         %#8(0"


                          • ?74+&,&%20"-&$ 7#&'&*";&& +#"%(= "/>

                          • <-$+#& &*>$-$-&8 0 -"'2620(3 )2,$)+ IU, /%$,7+>"#%&0".B&$ 70$'&5$-&$ 4"*2023
                            +#"0)& #%"-+/2%#-262 -"'26", 0 *"0&+&>2+#& 2# 02*%"+#" "0#2#%"-+/2%#-(= +%$,+#0

                          • <-$+#& &*>$-$-&8 0 *")2- «Q 4$*2/"+-2+#& ,2%2F-262 ,0&F$-&8», /%$,7+>"#%&0".B&$
!0$$#"68&
                            *"/%$# -" M)+/'7"#";&. 0 )2>>$%5$+)&= ;$'8= ,'8 /$%$02*)& 6%7*20 & /"++"F&%20,
  ",+8&
                            2#-2+8B&=+8 ) '&;$-*&%7$>(> 0&,"> ,$8#$'1-2+#& (+26'"+20"#1 + !&-O%"-+2>)
                                – '$6)20($ (PC) – +0(E$ 25 '$# + 2012 6.
                                – RKA (LCV) – +0(E$ 20 '$# ,'8 6%7*20(=, 15 '$# – ,'8 RKA -" /"++"F&%+)&=
                                  >"%E%7#"= + 2012 6.
                                – 6%7*20($ (HCV) – +0(E$ 25 '$# + 2011 6.
                                – "0#247+( – +0(E$ 15 '$# + 2011 6.




!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                       47
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00




50$#"6&+'#
7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)'
;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'#
@&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#:
 • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8
 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)"
@&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80%
A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#('
B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"&
C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/
!"')06#+'/
 • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#">
 • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8=
 • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A



!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                   48
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

A,%0$, >0 .>0.01&- "&3%'('/ 0(#4#.(%#++0:
&%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)'

P& 1&3# &+&)'3& %03-06+,I .?#+&"'#%, +&'10)## 0(%#4&G='- .("&(#2'4#.8'- ?#)/- "0..':.80: '+$<.("''
/%)/G(./ .?#+&"'' (1) 8"<>+020 98.>0"(#"& ' (2) >&"(+#".(%&
   • C%& 75$#$ G")#2%20 %$"'&*7$>2+#& & /2#%$4-2+#& 0 &-0$+#&;&8=, %$)2>$-,7$#+8 ,0&6"#1+8 5$%$* /"%#-$%+#02 0
      +;$-"%&3 )%7/-262 M)+/2%#Z%" (,'8 +$6>$-#20 RA & RKA), & -$/2+%$,+#0$--2 0 +;$-"%&3 )%7/-262 M)+/2%#Z%" (,'8
      +$6>$-#20 LKA & "0#247+20), /%& 75$#$ -$24=2,&>(= >$% #"%&G-23 *"B&#( %(-)"

P& 1&3# <"080% $"<2'I .("&+ H@QM, !"&%'(#)*.(%0 .-06#( +&>"&%'(* 0("&.)* % 80+8<"#+(0.>0.01+0# "<.)0,
3&$#:.(%0%&% 6 0.+0%+,I ",4&20%:
   • J*>$-$-&$ /%"0&' '2)"'&*";&& 0 5"+#& +#&>7'&%20"-&8 6'24"'1-(= "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'$3 & /%2&*0. )2>/2-$-#20
      70$'&5&0"#1 ,24"0'$--7. +#2&>2+#1 0 I2++&&
   • T/%"0'$-&$ +2*,"-&$> 6'742)&= /"%#-$%+#0 >$F,7 %2++&3+)&>& & 6'24"'1-(>& &6%2)">& /%& -"'&5&&
      *"6%",&#$'1-(= >$%( /2 )2-#%2'. *" ,2'$3 &-2+#%"--(= &6%2)20 0 %2++&3+)2> "0#2/%2>$ (-$ 42'$$ 50%)
   • T+&'$-&$ #"%&G-23 & -$#"%&G-23 *"B&#( ,2>"E-$62 %(-)" ,'8 +#&>7'&%20"-&8 '2)"'&*";&& & +2*,"-&8 ?C
   • C%2,2'F&#1 >$%( /2 +#&>7'&%20"-&. /%$,'2F$-&8 0 24'"+#& 9JQKI, M)2'26&5$+)&= +#"-,"%#20 & +#"-,"%#20
      4$*2/"+-2+#& /7#$> /%8>262 G&-"-+&%20"-&8 5"+#& *"#%"# -" 9JQKI & /%$,2+#"0'$-&8 62+6"%"-#&3
   • C%2,2'F&#1 >$%( /2 +#&>7'&%20"-&. +/%2+" /7#$> %2*-&5-262 / ,&'$%+)262 )%$,&#20"-&8
   • <-$,%&#1 >$%( /2 G2%+&%20"-&. 24-20'$-&8 "0#2/"%)" 0 +$6>$-#$ )2>>$%5$+)&= "/>

B0.<$&".(%< +#01I0$'-0 ."04+0 "&3"&10(&(* ' <(%#"$'(* 01=<G .("&(#2'G &%(0>"0-& ' >)&+ $#:.(%':, &
&%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)/- - +&4&(* "&3"&10(8< ' %+#$"#+'# 6'3+#.>0.01+,I >)&+0% >0 "#.("<8(<"'3&?''
   • C%20$%)" 4&*-$+-/'"-20 0+$= OEM & 6'"0-(= OES, + ;$'1. "-"'&*" &= +22#0$#+#0&8 24B$>7 +#%"#$6&5$+)2>7
     0&,$-&. & &= ,2'62+%25-23 F&*-$+/2+24-2+#&
   • Q%6"-&*";&8 / /2,,$%F)" >$% /2 %$+#%7)#7%&*";&& &6%2)20 ,'8 24$+/$5$-&8 )2-)7%$-#2+/2+24-2+#&
   • C%&0'$5$-&$ &*4%"--(= 6'24"'1-(= &6%2)20 ,'8 75"+#&8 0 %$+#%7)#7%&%20"--(= %2++&3+)&= )2>/"-&8=

!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                   49
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

  M 2020 $01&%)#++&/ .(0'-0.(*, .03$&++&/ % @0..'',
  %,"&.(#( % 4.5 "&3&
                                                                                                               4 0.+0%+,I 80->0+#+(& "0.(&
                                       2008                                        2020                      $01&%)#++0: .(0'-0.(' % @0..''

<(%75)" OEM 0 I2++&&1                             ~54                                         ~91

                                                                                                              1 Q%6"-&5$+)2$ 70$'&5$-&$ 24N$>20
                                                                                                               •
<(%75)" 2# M)+/2%#" a/>                           ~1                                               ~13
                                                                                                                  %(-)"
              J>/2%# "/>                          32                                               21
                                                                                                              2 C20(E$-&$ ,2'& M)+/2%#", 2+24$--2
                                                                                                               •
 C%2&*02,+#02 0 I2++&&                 23                                                    84                   /2 +$6>$-#"> '$6)20(= & 6%7*20(=
    9$'2)"'&*20"--($
                                                                                                                  "/>
                                       11                                                    34
          )2>/2-$-#(

       :24. +#2&>2+#1,                                                                                        3 ?-&F$-&$ ,2'& &>/2%#"
                                                                                                               •
   +2*,"--"8 0 I2++&&2
                                  11                   I4.5                   50


                             0     25        50     75   100 125          0   25   50   75   100    125
                                                                                                              4 C20(E$-&$ 7%20-8 '2)"'&*";&&
                                                                                                               •
                                                          !'%, €                              !'%, €              %2++&3+)&= & &-2+#%"--(=
    :2'8 "0#2/%2>" 0                        0.98%                  x2.4             2.38%
                                                                                                                  "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'$3 /%&
    <<C2 (%)
                                                                                                                  %",&)"'1-23 %$+#%7)#7%&*";&&
    :2'8 ,24"0'$--23                                                                                              /%2&*02,+#0" )2>/2-$-#20
    +#2&>2+#&, +2*,. 0                      21%                    x2.5             48%
    I2++&& (%)3




  1. 9$ 0)'.5"$# >"%F7 ,&'$%20. <)'.5"$# "/>, /%2&*0$,$--($ 0 I2++&& %2++&3+)&>& & &-2+#%"--(>& "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'8>&
  2. 9$ 0)'.5"$# )2+0$--($ -"'26& & #">2F$--($ /'"#$F&. 9$ 0)'.5"$# >"%F7 ,&'$%20 & /2+'$/%2,"F-2$ 24+'7F&0"-&$
  3. I"++5&#(0"$#+8 )") (,24. +#2&>2+#1, +2*,"--"8 0 I2++&&/ 24N$> %(-)" 0 I2++&& + M)+/2%# "/>)
  J+#25-&): 2;$-)& BCG; "-"'&* BCG
  !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                50
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00


 !0$I0$ 8 "#.("<8(<"'3&?'' &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.('
 C%$,'2F$-&8 %"425$3 6%7//(
                                *)$"+)# ,%-..)                                  11 !"#$%# –                                  / 1 #!0)%# 2010
                                10 !"#$%# 2009                                31 &'()$%# 2009
                            502)&.0%&+'# %'$#+'/                                                                             A+#$"#+'# >)&+&
                                  0("&.)' '                          C#(&)'3&?'/ ' >)&+ %+#$"#+'/                           "#.("<8(<"'3&?'' '
                            20.<$&".(%#++,I -#"                                                                             >0$$#"68' 0("&.)'

                            • Q4B"8 ;$'1 %2++&3+)23               • :$#"'&*";&8 +#%"#$6&3 %2++&3+)&=                   • <-$,%$-&$ )%"#)2+%25-(= >$%
                              "0#2/%2>(E'$--2+#&                    OEM & )'.5$0(= OES                                   /2,,$%F)& -" 2010 6.
                            • C%26-2*( %(-)" /2                   • T#25-$-&$ /"%">$#%20 #%$47$>(=                     • :$#"'&*";&8, 0(0$%)"
                              +$6>$-#">                             &-0$+#&;&3 /2 OEM & )'.5$0(>                         /"%">$#%20, 0-$,%$-&$ >$%
                            • O$)7B"8 +&#7";&8 /2                   OES                                                  62+7,"%+#0$--23 /2,,$%F)&
                              "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'8> &                • <(0$%)" /"%">$#%20 #"%&G-23                          +$)#2%" -" +%$,-$+%25-7.
   O$>( )                                                                                                                /$%+/$)#&07
                              )'.5$0($ G")#2%(                      *"B&#( & 62+7,"%+#0$--23
24+7F,$-&.
                              )2-)7%$-#-2+/2+24-2+#&                /2,,$%F)&                                          • I"*%"42#)" & 0-$,%$-&$ /'"-20
& /%2%"42#)$                                                                                                             %$+#%7)#7%&*";&& OEM &
                            • H$'$023 +;$-"%&3                    • :$#"'&*";&8 )%"#)2+%25-(= >$%
                              %"*0&#&8 %(-)"                        /2,,$%F)& "0#2/%2>" (-" 2010 6.)                     )'.5$0(= OES
                            • O%$47$>($ &-0$+#&;&&                • I"*%"42#)" (/%& -$24=2,&>2+#&)                     • I$67'8%-(3 >2-&#2%&-6 &
                                                                    ;$'$023 /%26%">>( %"*0&#&8                           2424B$-&$ %$*7'1#"#20 /2 0+$>
                            • I$)2>$-,";&& /2                                                                            %"425&> -"/%"0'$-&8>
                              62+7,"%+#0$--23                       "0#2/%2>", & &-+#%7>$-#" $$
                              /2'&#&)$                              0-$,%$-&8
                             S08<. (#8<=#20 01.<6$#+'/



K'.5$0($                              " Q,24%$-&$ 0(42%"                             " ?26'"+20"-&$ >$%                              " C74'&5-"8
%$*7'1#"#(                              ;$'$0262 (;$'$0(=)                             /2,,$%F)& -" 2010                               )2>>7-&)";&8
                                        +;$-"%&$0                                    " ?26'"+20"-&$ /'"-20                             %$*7'1#"#20
                                      " C74'&5-"8 )2>>7-&)";&8                         %$+#%7)#7%&*";&&
                                        %$*7'1#"#20                                    OEM & OES
 !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                  51
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

@#.("<8(<"'3&?'/ 0("&.)' ("#1<#( "&104#: 2"<>>,,
"+&?#)#++0: +& $#:.(%'/"


                                                      B"<>>& 98.>#"(0%                                                @&104&/ 2"<>>&
                                               510" ' 01-#+& .("&(#2'4#.8'-'                              @#D#+'# 8)G4#%,I >"01)#-
           7'..'/                              '$#/-' >0 0("&.)'                                          0("&.)' ' 0"8#.("0%8&
                                                                                                          "#.("<8(<"'3&?''


                                               X'"08': 8"<2 3&'+(#"#.0%&++,I                              P&3+&4#++&/ 80-&+$& 98.>#"(0%
                                               .(0"0+ ' 98.>#"(0%,                                        . 4#(8'- "<80%0$.(%0- '
            T)#+,
                                               02"&+'4#++&/ 0(%#(.(%#++0.(*                               )'+'/-' >0$4'+#+'/, >0)+0.(*G
                                               3& "#3<)*(&(                                               0(%#(.(%#++&/ 3& "#3<)*(&(


                                               C08)&$ . "#80-#+$&?'/-'                                    @#D#+'/ >0 %,$#)#+'G ."#$.(%
      Q+.("<-#+(,                              !0)'('4#.8': $'&)02                                        !)&+ $#:.(%': $)/ 80+8"#(+,I
                                                                                                          '2"080% % 0("&.)'


        A"#-#++0:                              2020                                                       2010 ' $&)*D#
         20"'30+(



!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                      52
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

  !"#$)&2&#-&/ .("<8(<"& ' 0.+0%+,# 3&$&4' @&104#:
  2"<>>, >0 &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.(' >"' !"&%'(#)*.(%# @S
                                                                     @&104&/ 2"<>>& >0 &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.(' >"'                                                  H&30
                                                                                                                                                                    %
                                                                                                                                                               %&"' ,:
                                                                                 !"&%'(#)*.(%# @S
                                                                 7'+'.(#".(%0 980+0-'4#.8020 "&3%'('/                                                              &+(
                                                                 7'+'.(#".(%0 >"0-,D)#++0.(' ' (0"20%)'
                                                                 51#"1&+8

                                                                 ,%76&$ 5'$-(                                                                  EN'. <>"&%)#+'/ >"0#8(0-
                                                                                                                                              W4&.(+'8'
                                                                                                                                              ! -/,
                                                                                                                                              •   T/%"0'$-&$ /%2;$++2> %"42#(,
                                                                                                                                                  +2*,"-&$ $,&-(= G2%>"#20
                                                                                                                                                  24+7F,$-&8
                                                                                                                                              •   C'"-&%20"-&$ &
                                                                                                                                                  /%&2%&#$*&%20"-&$ %"42#
                                                                                                                                              •   K22%,&-";&8 /2 %"425&>
                                                                                                                                                  -"/%"0'$-&8>, )2-+2'&,";&8
                                                                                                                                                  /2'75$--(= >"#$%&"'20
                                                                                                                                              •   A-"'&#&5$+)"8 /2,,$%F)"
1 7#", >0 .('-<)'"0%&+'G .>"0.&                         2          @#.("<8(<"'3&?'/ '                3 @#.("<8(<"'3&?'/ ' '+%#.('?'' %        •   !2,$%";&8 %"425&= 0+#%$5
                ' >"#$)06#+'/                               '+%#.('?'' % &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#:                        >0.(&%='80%

  W4&.(+'8'                                             W4&.(+'8'                                     W4&.(+'8'
  ! -/,                                                 ! -/,                                         ! -/,




   C%$,'2F$-&8 /2 ;$'$0(> &*>$-$-&8>                        •   K%&#&5$+)"8 2;$-)" & 7#0$%F,$-&$       •   K%&#&5$+)"8 2;$-)" & 7#0$%F,$-&$
   /2'&#&)$ /%"0&#$'1+#0"                                       "-#&)%&*&+-(= /'"-20                       "-#&)%&*&+-(= /'"-20
      • 9"'2620(3/#">2F$--(3 %$F&>                              2#$5$+#0$--(= &6%2)20                      2#$5$+#0$--(= /2+#"0B&)20
      • ?74+&,&&                                            •   C%$,'2F$-&8 /2 -"&42'$$                •   C2,62#20)" #%$47$>262 0(,$'$-&8
      • ?#&>7'&%20"-&$ +/%2+"                                   ;$'$+224%"*-23 )2-G&67%";&&                /2+#"0B&)20 &* +2+#"0"
      • !$="-&*>( 7/%"0'$-&8                                    2#$5$+#0$--23 "0#2/%2>(E'$--2+#&           &-#$6%&%20"--(=
      • ?#"-,"%#( 0(='2/20/#2/'&0"                          •   C%$,'2F$-&8 /2 2/#&>&*";&&                 "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'$3
      • J-&;&"#&0( /2 %"*0&#&.                                  %$F&>20 0-7#%$--$62 &                  •   C2,62#20)" ) /%20$,$-&.
          2#$5$+#0$--(= 9JQKI                                   >$F,7-"%2,-262 +2#%7,-&5$+#0"              /$%$6202%20 2 G2%>&%20"-&&
                                                            •   C2,62#20)" ) /%20$,$-&.                    >$F,7-"%2,-(= /"%#-$%+#0
                                                                /$%$6202%20 2 G2%>&%20"-&&
                                                                >$F,7-"%2,-(= /"%#-$%+#0

J+#25-&): BCG
  !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                      53
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00




50$#"6&+'#
7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)'
;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'#
@&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#:
 • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8
 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)"
@&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80%
A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#('
B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"&
C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/
!"')06#+'/
 • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#">
 • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8=
 • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A



!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                   54
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00




50$#"6&+'#
7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)'
;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'#
@&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#:
 • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8
 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)"
@&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80%
A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#('
B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"&
C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/
!"')06#+'/
 • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#">
 • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8=
 • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A



!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                   55
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00                                        RA      RKA LKA A0#
  M 2020 20$< >"02+03'"<#(./ %0..(&+0%)#+'# 01F#-&
  ",+8& &/- $0 2,8-4,1 -)+. &/-
                                                               -#./"# 0+#123& .(4"#567 2/%1
    !#"'0$
>#"%0+&4&)*+020                     5(&2+&?'/                              !"#0$0)#+'#                      !0.(8"'3'.+0#                      5(&1')'3&?'/ ",+8&
     "0.(&                                                                  0(.(&%&+'/                      %0..(&+0%)#+'#
  C%2,"F& -20(= '$6)20(= "/>                                                                                                                          -0.5%/+3%
  (>'-. $,&-&;)

  5
                                                                                          !"#$#%&'()"&*
                                                                                              "+&,&)                                                                    4,1
  4                                                                                                                   +11-16%
                                                                                                                                                                  3,6         502)&.0%&++,:
                                                                                                                                                      3.5                     1&30%,: .?#+&"':
                                                                                                                                                            3,6         3,6
  3             !"#$#%&'()"&*                                                                 2,8                                        3,3
                                                                                                                                                3,4
                    "+&,&)                                                   +21%
                                                                                                                                   3,1
                                                                                        2.4                                  2,8                                        2,8
                                                                                                                       2.4
                                                                                                                2.0
  2                                                                                           1,4         1.8
                                                                                  1.8
                                           +0%                                          1,2
                                                                                                    1.4
             +16%                                                           1.4
                                                                    1.3           0,8
                     1,0                        1.0           1.1           0,4
  1                               0.9    0.9            1.0           0.3                     0,6
              0,8          0,8                                0.2   0.1                 0,5
       0,7                                                                  0.2   0,3

                                                              0,9    0,9    0,8   0,7   0,7   0,7
  0
      19952 19962 19972 19982 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

                                                                                                                                                                  J>/2%#
                                                                                                                                                                  R2)"'&*20"--($
                                                                                                                                                                  Q#$5$+#0$--($
                                                                                                                                                                  "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'&
  1. C%26-2* +2+#"0'8'+8 -" 4"*$ /%26-2*" %(-)" '$6)20(= "/> & RKA BCG, + 0(5$#2> 4"*20262 +;$-"%&8 RKA /2 ,"--(> %"425$3 6%7//(
  2. :"--($ 2 ,2'$ >$F,7-"%2,-(= "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'$3 -$,2+#7/-(; 2;$-)& + #25-2+#1. ,2 10%
  J+#25-&): Global Insight (,$)"4%1 2008); A0#2+#"#; 2/(# /%2$)#20 BCG; >2,$'1 %(-)" BCG
  !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                                 56
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00                       RA     RKA LKA A0#
M 2020 20$< .("<8(<"& .>"0.& >0 .#2-#+(&- % @0..''
$0)6+& >"'1)'3'(*./ 8 #%"0>#:.8'- 1#+4-&"8&-
                                                                                 7#6$<+&"0$+,#                              V#)#%0: 01F#- ",+8&
                  A'$#+'# $)/ @0..''                                               1#+4-&"8'                                @0..'' >0 .#2-#+(&-
                                                                                                                                              E1F#-      B)<1080
% /%2,"--(= "/>                                                                                                           5#2-#+(   % ",+8&   >"0$&6,    )08&)'3.
                                                                                                                                                2020    >)&(N0"-,
100                       2%                                        3%                             0%
           6%                                          6%                       8%           5%               A
                                                                                                        10%                 A        5.5%     200K         1
                                                                                                              B
                         22%
                                                       22%                                   24%              C                                           4-5
 80       24%                                                       32%                                 19%                 B         22%     800K
                                                                                27%                           D
                                                                                                              E             C         33%     1200K       4-5
                                                                                                              MPV
 60                                                                                                     25%   SUV-C         D         9%      320K        2-3
                         42%                           33%                                   28%
                                                                                28%                           SUV-D/E
                                                                    32%                                                     E        1.7%      60K         1
          49%                                                                                                 C%25&$
 40                                                                                          6%         16%
                                                                                                                           MPV        8%      280K       2-31
                                                       9%                                    7%
                          8%                                        5%          13%
                                                       2%                                               4%
                                  1%                                      2%                                              SUV-B/C    15.5%    560K         4
                                                       8%           2%          3%           13%
                          4%                                                                            9%
 20
           9%                                                       17%         10%
                         12%                           16%                                              8%                SUV-D/E    4.5%     160K         1
           1%      1%
                                                                                6%           18%
           9%                                                                                           8%
                   0%     8%                           4%      1%   5%    2%    4%      1%                                !"04'#     0.5%     20K          -
  0        2%             0%                                                                 0%         3%

        @0..'/          @0..'/                        @0..'/     @0..'/        W0%2/"    ?$0$%-"8 !&%2023                  Total     100%     3600K      19-23
         2003            2008                          2020       2020          2008     A>$%&)"   %(-2)
                                                                (Sollers)                  2008     2008


1. Q4B&$ /'"#G2%>( + )'"++2> C
J+#25-&): Global insight; "-"'&* BCG
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                              57
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00                                RA   RKA LKA A0#
  502)&.+0 +&'10)## %#"0/(+0-< .?#+&"'G, % 2020 20$<
  01F#- ",+8& KML .0.(&%'( 350 (,.. &/-
                                                                                8+#123& $#567 :;<

       !#"'0$                               5(&2+&?'/                           !"#0$0)#+'#                      !0.(8"'3'.+0#           5(&1')'3&?'/ ",+8&
>#"%0+&4&)*+020 "0.(&                                                            0(.(&%&+'/                      %0..(&+0%)#+'#
                                                                                                                                                   +3+8%
      C%2,"F& RKA (#(+. $,&-&;)                                                                                                                                   422

      400
                                                                                              !"#$#%&'()"&*                                                       350
                                                                                                  "+&,&)
                       !"#$#%&'()"&*                                                                                   +14-18%
      300                  "+&,&)                                                                                                                                 283


                                                  +1.7%                                                                                                           251
                                                                                             209   210
      200
                                                                          167    170   176
                   +25%
                                         146 145              149   146
                           138    134                   132
                    110                                                                                   105
      100     88
                                                                                                           99



        0
             1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E



                                 D"*20(3                ?;$-"%&&          C%26-2* Sollers                C%26-2* LAV             ?;$-"%&3 Global Insight




   C%&>$5"-&$: &+#2%&5$+)&$ *-"5$-&8 /2)"*"#$'$3 +26'"+-2 Global Insight. ?;$-"%&3 Sollers %"++>"#%&0"$#+8 )") 4"*20(3.
   J+#25-&): Global Insight (2)#84%1 2009 62,"); Sollers; L%7//" LAV; "-"'&* BCG
  !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                   58
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00                                        RA         RKA LKA A0#
502)&.+0 +&'10)## %#"0/(+0-< .?#+&"'G, % 2020 20$<
01F#- ",+8& 2"<30%,I &/- .0.(&%'( 200-230 (,.. D(.
                                                              8+#123& $#567 4+9,#567 2/%

                                                                          !0.(8"'3'.+0#                                       5(&1')'3&?'/
                                                                          %0..(&+0%)#+'#                                          ",+8&
    C%2,"F& 6%7*20(= "/>
                                                                                                                                    +3+7%
    (#(+. $,&-&;)
   250
                                                                                                                                                           243
                                                          !"#$#%&'()"&*
                                                              "+&,&)                                                                                        198
   200                                                                                                                                                            190
                                                                                    +14-29%
                                                  174   171                                                                                                        186

   150                                            46    45
                                        125

                                         30
   100       90       89        92
                                24
             36        29
                                                  128   126
                                                                 44
     50                                  95
                       60       67
             54

      0
            2003     2004      2005     2006     2007   2008    2009    2010E   2011E   2012E   2013E    2014E   2015E    2016E   2017E   2018E   2019E    2020E


                                                                                                                                                          6-14#
                                      D"*20(3                ?;$-"%&&     C%26-2* KA!AV                 C%26-2* Sollers                                   >14#
                                                                                                                                                          ?;$-"%&3 Global Insight

C%&>$5"-&$: /%26-2* L%7//( KA!AV 0*8# *" 2+-207 0 )"5$+#0$ 4"*20262 +;$-"%&8.
J+#25-&): Global Insight (2)#84%1 2009 62,"); KA!AV; Sollers; "-"'&* BCG
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                                 59
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00                                RA      RKA LKA A0#
@,+08 &%(01<.0% +# %0..(&+0%'(./ $0 <"0%+/ 2007 20$&
$&6# % 2020 20$<
                                                             8+#123& $#567 25=#>9)#5
         C%2,"F& "0#247+20
         (#(+. $,&-&;)
         40
                                                                            !0.(8"'3'.+0#                              5(&1')'3&?'/ ",+8&
                                                                            %0..(&+0%)#+'#
                                               33.1
                                                       !"#$#%&'()"&*
         30                                                "+&,&)                                                                        +4%
                                                                                                                                                           26.6
                                     25.0                                                                                                           25.7
                                                                                                                                           24.8            2,4
                                                                                                                                  23.7
                           22.0                                                                                          22.5
                                                                                   +11%              19.7       21.1
                                                      20.3                                  18.4                                                           6,0
         20      18.3
                                                                                   15.9
                                                                           13.6
                                                             11.4   11.0
         10
                                                                                                                                                           18,2




           0
                2004      2005       2006      2007   2008   2009   2010   2011    2012     2013     2014    2015      2016     2017     2018     2019     2020


                          J>/2%#            :%. /%2&*02,&#$'& IU      L%7//" LAV     C%26-2* LAV             C%26-2* KA!AV               ?;$-"%&&1


C%&>$5"-&$: Global Insight -$ /%$,2+#"0'8$# ,"--($ 24 "0#247+-2> %(-)$ I2++&&
1. ?;$-"%&& /%$,/2'"6".# +'$,7.B7. 02'"#&'1-2+#1: 02*>2F-2+#1 /20(E$-&8 -" 20% 2#-2+&#$'1-2 4"*20262 7%20-8 0 2/#&>&+#&5$+)2> +;$-"%&& & %&+) +-&F$-&8 -" 40% 0
/$++&>&+#&5$+)2> +;$-"%&&
J+#25-&): L%7//" LAV; KA!AV; "-"'&* BCG
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                60
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

U&"&8(#"'.('8' 3 %03-06+,I ('>0% >"0'3%0$'(#)#: +&
"0..':.80- ",+8#

         M)G4#%,#                                   P#3&%'.'-,:                       @0..':.8': OEM                           Q+0.("&++,:
         >&"&-#(",                                "0..':.8': '2"08                     % >&"(+#".(%#                              '2"08


              M&>'(&)                                       +                                   +/-                                    -/+

                H"#+$                                       +                                   +/-                                      -
    Q+(#))#8(<&)*+&/
     .01.(%#++0.(*                                          +                                   +/-                                      -
         !"0$<8(0%&/
          .("&(#2'/                                         +                                   +/-                                      -
                                                                                                 +     C2'-2$ 0'",$-&$ %2++&3+)&>& &6%2)">&
                                                                                                 +/-   Y"+#&5-2$ 0'",$-&$ %2++&3+)&>& &6%2)">&
                                                                                                  -    Q#+7#+#0&$ 0'",$-&8 %2++&3+)&>& &6%2)">&

J+#25-&): V"+$,"-&$ M)+/$%#-23 6%7//(
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                               61
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00




50$#"6&+'#
7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)'
;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'#
@&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#:
 • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8
 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)"
@&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80%
A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#('
B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"&
C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/
!"')06#+'/
 • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#">
 • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8=
 • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A



!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                   62
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00                                   9" /%&>$%$ RA

     !0 KL % .?#+&"'' «!&"(+#".(%0», $)/ $0.('6#+'# >"0'3%0$.(%& 3.15
     -)+. &/- % 2020, % @0..'' +#01I0$'-0 €13-16 -)"$. '+%#.('?':

                                             3
          C)/ "#&)'3&?'' .?#+&"'/ !&"(+#".(%03, "0.. &%(0-01')*+0:
             >"0-,D)#++0.(' +#01I0$'-0 ~€15 -)"$. '+%#.('?':
9$24=2,&>($                                                                                            16.4
&-0$+#&;&&, € >'%,.                                                                          4.9
15
                                                                                             4.0
                                                                                           4,4          13.3

                                                                                1.8

10                                                               4.6            1.4

                                                                              1,6
                                                                  3.7
                                                                                                    14,9
                                                               4,0
                                                  1.3
 5
                                1.4               1.1
               2.7              1.2            1,2
               2.2            1,3
            2,4
 0
      !2,$%-&*";&8         920($            920($          C2+#"0B&)& 1   C2+#"0B&)& 2    9JQKI     J#262
      7+#. >2B-2+#$3      >2B-2+#&         >2B-2+#&           T%20-8         T%20-8


                                          Q+%#.('                Q+%#.('?''              Q+%#.('
             Q+%#.('?''
                                           ?'' %               >"0'3%0$'(#)#:             ?'' %
         &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#:
                                            PT1                 80->0+#+(0%              PQEM@



     ?;$-"%&3 «C"%#-$%+#02» /2,%"*7>$0"$# 7%20$-1 '2)"'&*";&& >&-. 50%
     1. PT (power train) – #%"-+>&++&8 2. OEM – "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'&, OES – /%2&*02,&#$'& "0#2)2>/2-$-#20 J+#25-&): L'24"'1-"8 A0#2>24&'1-"8 C%")#&)" BCG; A-"'&* BCG
     !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                               63
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00                           9" /%&>$%$ RA



     E1='# '+%#.('?'' OEM -02<( .0.(&%'(* ~ €3.4-4.1 -)"$.
     M 2020 2. +#01I0$'-0 <.(&+0%'(* ~500k
  +0%,I -0=+0.(#: ' -0$#"+'3'"0%&(* ~1100k                                                               E1='# 3&("&(, .0.(&%/( €3.4-4.1 -)"$.
                                                                                                                  70=+0.(',                        P#01I0$'-&/
                                                              C'"-&%7$>($                                   1                                 2
          A0#2<AV         750            200                                                                    +<6$&G='#./ %                     $0>0)+'(#)*+&/
                                                              T+#"-20'$--($ – +20%$>$--($                                   1
                                                                                                                 01+0%)#+''1                         -0=+0.(*
                                                              T+#"-20'$--($ – /2,'$F"B&$ >2,$%-&*";&&

           C%25&$                                                                                                 T+#"-20'$--"8                   Required incremental
                                         310    777
   %2++&3+)&$ OEM                                                                                                 >2B-2+#1 – -"                         capacity
                                                                                                                  >2,$%-&*";&.                       0.5 -)+. &/-
                                                                                                                   1.1 -)+. &/-
                                     1
           A.#20
  "0..':.8'# OEM
                            1 060              977           2,037
                                                                                                                        x                                   x
                                                                                                                   K2MGG&;&$-#                        K2MGG&;&$-#
          A.#20                                                                                                  )"/&#"'2$>)2+#&                    )"/&#"'2$>)2+#&
                                                               620
 3&"<1#6+,# OEM                                                                                                 >2,$%-&*";&& OEM                  -2023 >2B-2+#& OEM
                                                                                                                  €2.0k-2.5k / &/-2                  €2.4k-2.9k / &/-
           E1=&/
    <.(&+0%)#++&/           1 060                    1 597            2,657                                             =                                   =
         -0=+0.(*
+& .#"#$'+< 2009 2.
                                                                                                                   O%$47$>($                          O%$47$>($
     9$24=2,&>"8                                                         2                                       &-0$+#&;&& OEM                     &-0$+#&;&& OEM
   ,2/2'-&#$'1-"8                                                      493                                        €2.2-2.7 -)"$.                     €1.2-1.4 -)"$.
        >2B-2+#1



V#)#%&/ -0=+0.(*
                                                                               3 150
         % 2020 2.


                      0             1 000              2 000           3 000           4 000


     1. !2,$%-&*";&8 +7B$+#07.B&= >2B-2+#$3 /2 /%2&*02,+#07 +&'20(= "6%$6"#20 0=2,&# 0 24B&$ *"#%"#( -" >2,$%-&*";&. 7+#"-20'$--23 >2B-2+#&
     2. ?#2&>2+#1 >2,$%-&*";&& >2B-2+#$3 /%&-8#" *" ~74% +#2&>2+#& /2+#%23)& -20(= >2B-2+#$3, 2#%"F"8 24B7. ,2'. 242%7,20"-&8 (74%) 0 2+-20-(= +%$,+#0"= 6'24"'1-(= OEM
     J+#25-&): L'24"'1-"8 A0#2>24&'1-"8 /%")#&)" BCG; A-"'&* BCG
     !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                  64
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00                  9" /%&>$%$ RA
E1='# '+%#.('?'' % >"0'3%0$.(%0 1)08& ("&+.-'..''
~€1.1-1.3 -)"$.

 M 2020 $0)6+, 1,(* <.(&+0%)#+, -0=+0.(' >0
    >"0'3%0$.(%< ~1 -)+. +0%,I ("&+.-'..':                                                                 ... 01=#: .(0'-0.(*G ~€1.1-1.3 -)"$.

                A0#20"*           1,00                                                                          9$24=2,&>"8 ,24"025-"8 >2B-2+#1
                                                                                                                       1 -)+. $%'2&(#)#:

                ?2''$%+                           0,25



                      LAV                                                                                      K"/&#"'2$>)2+#1 4'2)" #%"-+>&++&&
                                                                                                                  €1.1(,.. -1.3 (,. / $%'2&(#)*

             J#262 7+#.
                                    1,25
             >2B-2+#&                                                                                                          =
                920($                                                                                     9$24=2,&>($ &-0$+#&;&& "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'8
                                                        1,00
              >2B-2+#&
                                                                                                                       €1.1-1.3 -)"$.

                 J>/2%#                                              0,90



           J#262 %(-2)                                3,15


                             0              1                  2            3         4

                                                      D'2)& #%"-+>&++&& (>'-. E#.)



J+#25-&): L'24"'1-"8 A0#2>24&'1-"8 C%")#&)" BCG; A-"'&* BCG
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                   65
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00                                    9" /%&>$%$ RA



    E1='# '+%#.('?'' OES -02<( .0.(&%'(* ~€5.1–6.4 -)"$.

    M 2020 OES +#01I0$'-, .<=#.(%#++,#
     '+%#.('?'' $)/ 01.)<6'%&+'/ OEM1
                                    1                                                                          ... % "&3-#"# €5.1–6.4 -)"$.

                                                                                   1 Q+%#.('?'' OES W"0%+/ 1               2
            !2,$%-&*";&8                                                                                                              Q+%#.('?'' OES W"0%+/ 2
                                                 2,2
            %2+. >2B-2+#$3                                                                     C%2,"F& "/>                                      C%2,"F& "/>
                                                                                               3.15 -)+. &/-                                    3.15 -)+. &/-
        J*>$-$-&$ 7%20-8
                                                    0,5                                              *                                              *
     '2)"'&*";&& &-. OEM
                                                                                         ?%$,-88 ;$-" "/> ) 2020                           ?%$,-88 ;$-" "/> ) 2020
                                                                                          $20 (,.. = € 13.5 (,..                            $20 (,.. = € 13.5 (,..
          920($ >2B-2+#&:
                                                              1,0
                 %2+. QW!                                                                          *                                               *
                                                                                         :24"0'$--"8 +#2&>2+#1
                                                                                                                                    :24"0'$--"8 +#2&>2+#1 OES T%20-8 1
                                                                                             OES T%20-8 1
          920($ >2B-2+#&:                                                                                                                          50%
                                                               0,3                               50%
                  &-. QW!
                                                                                                   *                                   *                               *
                                                                                      ?%$,-&3 70$'&5$--(3 7%20$-1                                             :24. +#2&>2+#1
       J#262 )"/. 0'2F$-&8                                     4,0                                                                                             OES T%20-8 1
          /2 OES T%20-8 1                                 1                           '2)"'&*";&& & #%$420"-&8 /2
                                                                                        >2,$%-&*";&& >2B-2+#$3                   :24"0'$--"8                        50%
                                                                                                  80%                           +#2&>2+#1 OES                         *
            OES T%20-8 2:
                                                                                                                               T%20-8 2 ,'8 OEM             :24. +#2&>2+#1 OES
         )"/. 0'2F$-&8 )")                                           0,8
                                                                                                     *                               10%                     T%20-8 2 ,'8 OES
         % 2# /%2,"F OEM
                                                                                                                                                                  T%20-8 1
            OES T%20-8 2:                                                            OES capital intensity (sales/PP&E)                                             24%
         )"/. 0'2F$-&8 )")                                                 0,8                   0.29-0.36
                                                                                                                                                        *
% 2# /%2,"F OES T%20-8 1
                                                                                                    =                                K"/&#"'2$>)2+#1 OES (/%2,"F&/Q?)
       J#262 )"/. 0'2F$-&8                                                            9$24=2,&>($ &-0$+#&;&& OES                                 0.29-0.36
                                                                           1,6                  T%20-8 1
          /2 OES T%20-8 2                                            2
                                                                                             €3.7-4.6 -)"$.                                         =
                                                                                                                                    9$24=2,&>($ &-0$+#&;&& OES T%20-8 2
                        J#262                                              5,6                                                                €1.4-1.8 -)"$.


    C%&>$5"-&$: &-0$+#&;&& 0 /%2&*02,+#02 +(%1$0(= >"#$%&"'20 (T%20-& 3-4) 0 "-"'&*$ -$ 75&#(0".#+8
    1. OEM – "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'1, OES – /%2&*02,&#$'1 "0#2)2>/2-$-#20
    J+#25-&): A-"'&* BCG
    !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                      66
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00
                                                                                           Backup                                                                                     9" /%&>$%$ RA

      !"'-#", 3&%0$0% >"#$>0)&2&G( .(0'-0.(* .("0'(#)*.(%&
      % ~€2.9k +& &/-; $)/ .')0%,I &2"#2&(0% – ~€1.4k/ $%'2&(#)*
                                                                                                                                     J&>&$+&/ O%"0>& '                        5')0%,#
                                                                            @0..'/                                                    H)'6+': A0.(08                          &2"#2&(,
E1F#-
'+%#.('?': (€-)+.)       332        254        5001          231      110       154      3252       1402       308       600       650        425        610       184        154         35

B0$0%&/                   75        125        1501          70        50       50       1102        502       100       210       150        100        184       100        110         42
-0=+0.(* (K)

                                                                                                                                                                                         C%&>$% LAV"
             T,$'1-($ &-0$+#&;&& (€/>2B-2+#1)                                                                                                                                                42'$$
             5 000                                                                                                                                                                      %$"'&+#&5-(3,
                        4 427                                                                                                     4 333                                                   #.). *"02, 0
                                                                                                                                             4 250   5"#$+## >0 JO/HA                       J-,&& 0
             4 000                                                  5"#$+## >0 @0..''                                                                ø = 3,400
                                                                                                                                                                                           2+-20-2>
                                                                    ø= 2,900
                                             3,3331         3 297                                                                                      3 315                              +42%25-(3
                                                                               3 077    2,9592               3 077
ø= 3,080     3 000                                                                                2,7902

                                                                     2 200                                              2 198
                                   2 031                                                                                                                                                 5"#$+## >0
             2 000                                                                                                                                                1 840
                                                                                                                                                                                         .')0%,- &2"#2&(&-
                                                                                                                                                                             1 399       ø = 1,100
             1 000                                                                                                                                                                       833


                 0
       OEM            GM/AV        Ford       VW1           GM      Toyota    Nissan    PSA2     Mitsubishi2 Hyundai   A0#2<AV     Ford     Toyota     Toyota     Honda       LAV       Daimler
                                                                                                                       (K"'&-")
                     O2'8##&    ?"-)#-   K"'76"    ?"-)#-   ?"-)#-    ?"-)#-    K"'76"   K"'76"    ?"-)#- O2'18##& Kocaeli     Kalin   Valcien- Wiltshire X%2+'"0'1   ...
 @&.>0)06#+'#
                     (I2++&8) C$#$%47%6 (I2++&8) C$#$%47%6 C$#$%47%6 C$#$%47%6 (I2++&8) (I2++&8) C$#$%47%6 (I2++&8) (O7%;&8)  Oveay      nes     (<$'&)2- (I2++&8) (J-,&8)
                               (I2++&8)           (I2++&8) (I2++&8) (I2++&8)                      (I2++&8)                   (O7%;&8) (U%"-;&8) 4%&#"-&8)



                                                                                                                                                                                     C'"-&%7$>($
                                                                                                                                                                                     U7-);&2-&%7.B&$

      1. C%$++-%$'&* VW ,,. 30 -284%8 2007 2. PSA & Mitsubishi /'"-&%20"'& +20>$+#-($ &-0$+#&;&& 0 %"*>$%$ ~€465 >'-. 0 *"02, >2B-2+#1. 160k, ,2'8 PSA +2+#"0'8'" 4( 70%
      &-0$+#&;&3 & 110k >2B-2+#$3
      J+#25-&)&: Global Insight; Automotive News; Toyota Motor Europe; IBM-Plant Location International (IBM-PLI); Industrial Investment Council (IIC) Germany; Invest in France; UK Development
      Agency; Flanders Foreign Investment Office (FFIO); "-"'&* BCG
      !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                                          67
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00                                        9" /%&>$%$ RA
  C#(&)*+&/ 0?#+8& -0=+0.(#: >0 (#I+0)02'4#.8'-
  >#"#$#)&- >"'%0$'( 8 .0>0.(&%'-0: .<--# '+%#.('?':

                70=+0.(' >0 &%(0-01')/-                                                                       70=+0.(' >0 $%'2&(#)/-

        J&("&(, >0 8&(#20"'/-, $M                                                                          J&("&(, >0 8&(#20"'/-, $M

         V$>'8 & +22%7F$-&8               96                                                              V$>'8 & +22%7F$-&8         120

                   J-F$-$%-($                                                                                    J-F$-$%-($
                                               7                                                                                           8
                       %"42#(                                                                                         %"42#(
                                                                                                                        D'2)               100
                          ?42%)"                40
                                                                                                            L2'20)" ;&'&-,%"                     70
                        C2)%"+)"                        100
                                                                                                                     K2'$-0"'                          120
                          ?0"%)"                                60
                                                                                                                   I"+/%$,0"'                                 60
              C%25&$ %"+=2,(                                         15
                                                                                                                       ?42%)"                                      80
                     @#">/20)"                                            60
                                                                                                                 O$+#&%20"-&$                                            30
          T+#"-20)", -"'",)"                                                   72                          T+#"-20)", -"'",)"                                           62

                            J#262                         450                                                            J#262                        650

                                      0                 200                    400                                               0          200             400         600   800

   W.(&+0%)#++&/
  -0=+0.(*, D(/20$
                                                   250 000 "/>                                                                       400 000 ,0&6"#$'$3


  M&>'(&)0#-80.(*
+& #$'+'?< >"0$<8?''
                                                1800 $ / 1250€                                                                         1625 $ / 1120€


  !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                                         68
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00




50$#"6&+'#
7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)'
;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'#
@&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#:
 • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8
 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)"
@&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80%
A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#('
B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"&
C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/
!"')06#+'/
 • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#">
 • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8=
 • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A



!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                   69
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

@&104&/ 2"<>>& >0 &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.(' 5XL:
&+('8"'3'.+&/ >0$$#"68& 0("&.)'

                           @&104&/ 2"<>>& >0
                       &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.(' 5XL
                                                                                                                          @&104&/ 2"<>>&
                  • A-#&)%&*&+-"8 /2,,$%F)" "0#2>24&'1-23 2#%"+'& ?@A                                          ;. B#:(+#" (!&-&+#$%+#02 G&-"-+20)
                  • Q;$-)" /'"-20 /2 %$+#%7)#7%&*";&& GM / Chrysler,                                           K. 5&--#"3 (9?P1)
         J&$&4'




                    0)'.5"8 2;$-)7 0'&8-&8 (-"/%&>$%, -" /2+#"0B&)20)                                          8 /%"0&#$'1+#0$--(= 5&-20-&)20, 2#0$5".B&=
                  • Q4$+/$5$-&$ 7+/$E-23 %$"'&*";&& ,2'62+%25-(=                                               *" +22#0$#+#07.B&$ -"/%"0'$-&8 (#.$. 2=%"-"
                    )2-;$/;&3 %"*0&#&8 2#%"+'&                                                                 #%7,", M-$%6$#&)", #%"-+/2%#, #2%620'8)




                  • K%$,&#-($ 6"%"-#&&, )%$,&#20"-&$ &6%2)20 & 0'2F$-&8
                    0 7+#"0-(3 )"/&#"' (/2 %$E$-&. I"425$3 6%7//()                                                      R8.>#"(+&/ 2"<>>&
         !0$I0$




                  • <20'$5$-&$ 0 /%2;$++ 0+$= *"&-#$%$+20"--(= +#2%2-
                    ("0#2/%2&*02,&#$'&, ,$%F"#$'& 24'&6";&3, /%2G+2.*()                                        5. @&((+#" (4(0E&3 %7)202,&#$'1 &-0$+#.
                                                                                                               G2-," Quadrangle)
                  • Q4$+/$5$-&$ MGG$)#&0-262 0*"&>2,$3+#0&8 >$F,7
                    75"+#-&)">&                                                                                I. D'7> (4(0E&3 +/&)$% USW2/4(0E&3 4"-)&%)
                                                                                                               A. K%.6$% (7-&0$%+&#$# C%&-+#2-")
                                                                                                               D. :&* (9?P1)
     .'"0%&+




                  • L2+7,"%+#0$--($ )%$,&#( & 6"%"-#&&
      S'+&+-




                                                                                                               C%$,+#"0&#$'& 5'$-20 %"425$3 6%7//(, 0)'.:
                  • Q,-")2 -" #$)7B&3 >2>$-# G2-,( $B$ -$
        '#




                    %"+/%$,$'$-(




1. 9";&2-"'1-(3 +20$# /2 M)2-2>&)$ 2. United Steelworkers Union – )%7/-$3E"8 /%2G+2.*-"8 2%6"-&*";&8 A>$%&)&
J+#25-&): !&-&+#$%+#02 G&-"-+20 ?@A; /%$++"
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                          70
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

E"2..("<8(<"& @&104#: 2"<>>, >0 &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.('
5XL
                                                                             !"#3'$#+( 5XL

                                                                          M&1'+#( -'+'.("0%

                                               @&104&/ 2"<>>& >0 &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.(' >"' !"#3'$#+(# 5XL

                                          T)#+,                                                                    !"#$.(&%'(#)'
•   7'+'.(" N'+&+.0% (.0>"#$.#$&(#)*)                                                   •   ?20$#-&) !&-&+#$%+#0" G&-"-+20
•   C'"#8(0" P&?'0+&)*+020 .0%#(& >0 980+0-'8# (50>"#$.#$&(#)*)                         •   V">.,&%$)#2%" 9?P
•   !&-&+#% #%"-+/2%#"                                                                  •   I7)202,&#$'1 "//"%"#" !&-&+#$%+#0" #%"-+/2%#"
•   !&-&+#% #2%620'&                                                                    •   ?#. +20$#-&) !&-&+#$%+#0" #2%620'&
•   !&-&+#% #%7,"                                                                       •   ?#. +20$#-&) !&-&+#$%+#0" #%7,"
•   !&-&+#% M-$%6$#&)&                                                                  •   ?#. +20$#-&) >&-&+#%" M-$%6$#&)&
•   C%$,+$,"#$'1 ?20$#" M)2-2>&5$+)&= )2-+7'1#"-#20 /%& C%$*&,$-#$ ?@A                  •   ?#. M)2-2>&+# /%& 0&;$-/%$*&,$-#$ D&,$-$
•   :&%$)#2% A,>&-&+#%"#&0-2-4.,F$#-262 7/%"0'$-&8                                      •   I7)202,&#$'1 "//"%"#" & +#. M)2-2>&+#, K2-+7'1#";&2--(3 +20$# /2
•   A,>&-&+#%"#2% A6$-#+#0" /2 *"B&#$ 2)%7F".B$3 +%$,(                                      02++#"-20'$-&. M)2-2>&)&
•   :&%$)#2% "//"%"#" D$'262 ,2>" /2 M-$%6$#&)$ & )'&>"#&5$+)&> &*>$-$-&8>              •   ?#. +20$#-&) /2 )'&>"#&5$+)23 /2'&#&)$ /%& ",>&-&+#%"#2%$ A6$-#+#0" VQ?
•   5(. .0%#(+'8 >0 >"01)#-&- &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.(', 7'+N'+ (x2-                           •   V">.,&%$)#2%" "//"%"#" D$'262 ,2>" /2 M-$%6$#&)$ & )'&>"#&5$+)&>
    +9"#5#1&=(.& #0(+2?&#$$67 4+900)                                                        &*>$-$-&8>




                                                          W>"&%)#+'# 0>#"&?'/-' – 7'+'.(#".(%0 N'+&+.0% (7S)

                                                      L%(0>"0'%30$'(#)* 1                          L%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)* 2

                                               @<80%0$'(#)' 2"<>> 0( 7S (x2)                  @<80%0$'(#)' 2"<>> 0( 7S (x2)
                E>#"&?'0++&/
                   2"<>>&                                     5("&(#2'4#.8&/ 80+.<)*(&?'0++&/ 2"<>>& (BCG)

                                                            S'+&+.0%&/ 80+.<)*(&?'0++&/ 2"<>>& (Rothschild)

                                                 Y"'$'4#.8&/ 80+.<)*(&?'0++&/ 2"<>>& (Cadwalader Wickersham & Taft )
!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                              71
!"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – %#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00

M)G4#%,# "0)' ' 30+, 0(%#(.(%#++0.(' 4)#+0% @&104#:
2"<>>,

         W4&.(+'8                              J0+& 0(%#(.(%#++0.('                                     M)G4#%,# "0)' ' "&10(,
  5(. .0%#(+'8 >0                             J-0$+#. 4"-)&%(                                • <*"&>22#-2E$-&8 + /%"0&#$'1+#0$--(>& 2%6"-">& ?@A &
  >"01)#-&-                                   J-0$+#&;&& 0 24"-)%2#&0E&$+8 ")#&0(              ,%76&= +#%"-
  &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.('                            • C$%$6202%( + ,$%F"#$'8>&                   • C$%$6202%( + ,$%F"#$'8>& 24'&6";&3
                                                  24'&6";&3                                  • C$%$6202%( + /%2G+2.*-(>& 2%6"-&*";&8>&
                                              O%7,20($ 0*"&>22#-2E$-&8                       • <*"&>2,$3+#0&$ + %7)202,&#$'8>& & +20$#">& ,&%$)#2%20
                                                                                               )2>/"-&3

  @<80%0$'(#)' 2"<>> 0(                       U&-"-+(                                        • <*"&>2,$3+#0&$ + %7)202,&#$'8>& & +20$#">& ,&%$)#2%20
  7'+'.(#".(%&                                                                                 )2>/"-&3
  N'+&+.0%                                                                                   • T/%"0'$-&$ /%2;$++2> )2>/'$)+-262 "7,&#" (due diligence)
                                                                                             • T/%"0'$-&$ /%2;$++2> G&-"-+&%20"-&8
  5("&(#2'4#.8': .0%#(                        !$-$,F>$-# )2-+"'#&-6                          •   Q;$-)" %(-)"
                                                                                             •   D%$-,(, /%2,"F&, >"%)$#&-6, ,&'$%(
                                                                                             •   C'"#G2%>( & 9JQKI
                                                                                             •   Q4B&$ *"#%"#(
                                                                                             •   C"%#-$%+#0" & "'18-+(
                                                                                             •   !2,$'&%20"-&$ 2;$-25-(= /%&4('$3 & 74(#)20


  S'+&+.0%,: .0%#(                            J-0$+#. 4"-)&                                  •   Q;$-25-($ /2#2)& -"'&5-2+#&, "-"'&* 4"'"-+20(= 2#5$#20
                                                                                             •   ?#%7)#7%" ,2'620 & >$="-&*>( G&-"-+&%20"-&8
                                                                                             •   A-,$%%"3#&-6 +,$'2)
                                                                                             •   C%2;$++ G&-"-+&%20"-&8 DIP


  Y"'$'4#.8': .0%#(                           K2%/2%"#&0-2$ *")2-2,"#$'1+#02                 • A-"'&* & 2;$-)" /2*&;&3 /2 ")#&0">, ,26202%"> & .%.'&;">
                                                • D"-)%2#+#02                                • C%2;$,7%" 4"-)%2#+#0" & +;$-"%-2$ /'"-&%20"-&$
                                                • Q4"-)%2#&0E&$+8 )2>/"-&&                   • C2,,$%F)" /$%$6202%-262 /%2;$++"


!"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt                                                                                                       72

Bcg on auto industry

  • 1.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 !"02"&--& "&3%'('/ 0(#4#.(%#++020 &%(0-01')#.("0#+'/ $0 2020 20$ !"#$%&"'( ) *"+$,"-&. /%"0&#$'1+#0$--23 %"425$3 6%7//( !2+)0", 9 -284%8, 2009
  • 2.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 50$#"6&+'# 7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)' ;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'# @&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#: • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)" @&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80% A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#(' B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"& C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/ !"')06#+'/ • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#"> • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8= • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 1
  • 3.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 50$#"6&+'# 7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)' ;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'# @&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#: • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)" @&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80% A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#(' B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"& C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/ !"')06#+'/ • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#"> • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8= • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 2
  • 4.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 E1='# >"#$>0.,)8' "&3%'('/ "0..':.80: &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.(' – 2020 ;#8<=': .>&$ "0..':.8020 &%(0-01')*+020 ",+8& %"#-#++,:, ",+08 %#"+#(./ 8 01F#-&-, >"#%,D&G='- >&"&-#(", 2008 2., % ."#$+#."04+0: >#".>#8('%# >"&8('4#.8' >0 %.#- .#2-#+(&- • < -"+#28B&3 >2>$-#, "0#2/%2> +2*,"$# ~1% <<C, 2#0$5"8 *" ~540 #(+. %"425&= >$+# -$/2+%$,+#0$--2 0 )2>/"-&8=- /%2&*02,&#$'8= "/> & )2>/'$)#7.B&=, & ,2/2'-&#$'1-2 ~1500 #(+. - /2 2+#"'1-(> 75"+#-&)"> ;$/25)& /2+#"02) • < ,2'62+%25-23 /$%+/$)#&0$, %2++&3+)&3 %(-2) 47,$# /%$,+#"0'8#1 ~5% >&%20262 H#3 <4&.('/ 20.<$&".(%&, "0)* "0..':.80: &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.(' .<=#.(%#++0 <-#+*D'(./: • D2'1E&-+#02 "//%2&*02,&#$'$3 -"=2,8#+8 /2, 76%2*23 & 0 #8F$'23 G&-"-+2023 +&#7";&& (*" &+)'.5$-&$> %8," /%2&*02,&#$'$3, 0 #.5. 6%7*20(= "/>) • <(+2)2 G%"6>$-#&%20"--($, >$')&$ /%2&*02,&#$'& )2>/2-$-#20 +2 *-"5&#$'1-23 0$%28#-2+#1. /%2,2'F"# 7>$-1E"#1+8 &'& &+5$*-7# A "0..':.8'I '+(#"#.&I .0I"&+'(* 80+8<"#+(0.>0.01+<G &%(0'+$<.("'G • H$'1: >")+&>&*";&8 ,2'& ,24"0'$--23 +#2&>2+#&, +2*,"--23 -" #$%%&#2%&& I2++&& /2 0+$> /$%$,$'"> ;$/25)& +2*,"-&8 +#2&>2+#& • A0#2&-,7+#%&8 >2F$# +#"#1 '2)2>2#&02> &--20";&3 0 >"E&-2+#%2$-&& & +>$F-(= 2#%"+'8= !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 3
  • 5.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 5"&%+#+'# . -'"0%,-' >08&3&(#)/-' >08&3&)0 .)&10.(* @0..'' % >08&3&(#)/I >"0'3%0$-(', '+%#.('?':, (0"20%)' !"0'3%0$'(#)*+0.(* – 2008 ;#I+0)02'' –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– 24B&$ &-0$+#&;&& 0 G&)+. )"/&#"' 0 "0#2 &-,7+#%&& *" 2008. :'8 D%"*&'&& – $F$62,-($ &-0$+#&;&& /2+5&#"-( &* #%$=62,&5-262 &-0$+#&;&2--262 /'"-" 3. :"--($ ,'8 24B$62 M)+/2%#" -$ 0)'.5".# /%&%2,-($ %$+7%+( (-$G#1, 6"* & #,.) J+#25-&)&: L2+)2>+#"#; A-"'&* /%$++(; BCG Global Knowledge; United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database; "-"'&* BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 4
  • 6.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 7&8"0980+0-'4#.8': >"02+03 I2++&8 !&"&-#(", 7&8"098. !&"&-#(", $01&%)#++0: !&"&-#(", >&"&-#(", ",+8& .(0'-0.(' 3&+/(0.(' !&"&-#(", >&"8&6 6 :2'8 :2'8 :2'8 :2'8 % ,24. % ,24. K2'-02 K2'-02 C%2*02,. C%2*02,. C%2-&)- C%2-&)- <<C/5$'2 <<C/5$'2 &>/2%#" &>/2%#" M)+/2%#" M)+/2%#" +#2&>2+#& +#2&>2+#& :24.+#2&- :24.+#2&- %"42#-. 0 % 2# %"4. %"42#-. 0 % 2# %"4. #%7," #%7," C"%) C"%) <(4(#&8 <(4(#&8 -20$-&$ -20$-&$ % <<C1 % <<C1 (€/5$') (€/5$') (%)9 (%)9 (%)10 (%)10 0 I2++&&3 0 I2++&&3 >2+#1 (€ >'%,)4 >2+#1 (€ >'%,)4 "0#2/%2>$ "0#2/%2>$ +&'(5 +&'(5 ("->/5$') ("->/5$') (>'-."->) (>'-."->) (>'-. "->./ %) (>'-. "->./ %) ("->/ #(+. 5$'.) ("->/ #(+. 5$'.) 2008 0.98% 62 ~60% ~2% 21% 11.2 0.5 0.7% 3.7 32.0 ~4% 225 2009 0.57% 36 ~50% ~2% 25% 5.0 0.4 0.6% 2.0 32.5 ~3% 229 20207 ~2.38% 347 20% 10% 48% 50.0 0.4 0.6% 9.0 52.0 ~6%8 363 1. :2'8 "0#2/%2>" 0 <<C 2. <<C "0#2/%2>" / 5&+'. -"+$'$-&8 3. I"++5&#(0"$#+8 )") (,24. +#2&>2+#1, +2*,"--"8 0 I2++&&/ 24N$> %(-)" 0 I2++&& + M)+/2%# "/>) 4 9$ 0)'.5"$# >"%F7 ,&'$%20 & )2+0$--($ -"'26& 5. :2'8 *"-8#(= 0 "0#2/%2>$ 2# 24B$62 5&+'" %"4. +&'( 6. O2'1)2 '$6)20($ "-> 7. ?;$-"%&3, /%$,'2F$--(3 P)+/$%#-23 L%7//23 8. 6% - ;$'$023 /2)"*"#$'1 -" 2020 62, (+22#0$#+#07$# +%$,-$>7 7%20-. ,'8 %(-)" ?@A). ?%$,-&3 7%20$-1 *" /$%&2, 2010-2020 +2+#"0&# ~5% 9. :2'8 &>/2%#" 0 ,$-$F-23 2;$-)$ 2# 24N$>" /%2,"F 0 I2++&& 10. :2'8 M)+/2%#" 0 ,$-$F-23 2;$-)$ 2# 24N$>" /%2,"F 0 I2++&& J+#25-&): 2;$-)& !PI; 2;$-)& BCG; "-"'&* BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 5
  • 7.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 50$#"6&+'# 7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)' ;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'# @&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#: • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)" @&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80% A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#(' B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"& C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/ !"')06#+'/ • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#"> • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8= • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 6
  • 8.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 RA RKA LKA A0# 5 2000 20$& N"&2-#+(&?'/ +& ",+8# @0..'' <.')'%&#(./: >0(#"' $)/ %.#I <4&.(+'80% '3-3& -&)020 -&.D(&1& ...>0 ."&%+#+'G . $"<2'-' .("&+&-' 5 2000 20$& N"&2-#+(&?'/ +& ",+8# BRIC, 2$# -&.D(&1 01#.>#4'%&#(./ S"&2-#+(&?'/ >"'%0$'( 8 >0(#"/- '3-3& @0..'' 3+&4'(#)*+0 <.')')&.*... 80+?#+("&?'#: ')' 01='- "&3-#"0- -&)020 -&.D(&1& ' >0"04+0-< 8"<2< :2'& %(-)", % :%76&$ :2'& %(-)",% • ?&'1-"8 %"*,%24'$--2+#1 %(-)" /%2,"F 1,085 3,029 2,717 1,734 8,594 100 UAZ 100 • 9&*)&3 24N$> /%2&*02,+#0" & >"'($ 90% PSA /%2&*02,+#0$--($ >2B-2+#& MAZDA 80 DAEWOO 80 75% • 9$/%&0'$)"#$'1-(3 %(-2) ,'8 >$F,7-"%2,-(= /2+#"0B&)20 HONDA 67% )2>/'$)#7.B&= MITSUBISHI 60 60 RENAULT • 9&*)&3 7%20$-1 )2-)7%$-;&& -" %(-)$ GAZ )2>/'$)#7.B&= &*-*" -&*)262 7%20-8 41% /%&+7#+#0&8 >$F,7-"%2,-(= VW 40 40 "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'$3 NISSAN TOYOTA 23% • 9&*)2$ )"5$+#02 %2++&3+)&= FORD /2+#"0B&)20 )2>/'$)#7.B&= /%& >"'2> 20 20 HYUNDAI >"+E#"4$ /%2&*02,+#0" /2 >2,$'8> GM AVTOVAZ • <(+2)"8 +#2&>2+#1 '2)"'&*";&& 0 0 2000 2008 D%"*&'& J-,&8 K&#"3 • 9&*)&3 7%20$-1 '2)"'&*";&& 8 2008 2088 2008 41%Q4B"8 ,2'8 %(-)" #2/-3 75"+#-&)20 C)/ <)<4D#+'/ .'(<&?'' +#01I0$'-0 .('-<)'"0%&(* 80+.0)'$&?'G ' >&"(+#".(%& "0..':.8'I ' )08&)'30%&++,I &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#: J+#25-&): Autostat, &.-1 2009; "-"'&* BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 7
  • 9.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –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• S&*-$- "'.('8' &-#$''$)#7"'1-7. +24+#0$--2+#1, 0" & 6&4)2+#1, *"/",-(3 +#&'1 -$0(+2)&> 7%20-$> '2)"'&*";&&, +/2+24-( 0 -"0()20 0 &-F&-&%&-6$, >"+E#"420 7/%"0'$-&8, -2 -$ =0"#"$# >"+E#"4" /%2&*02,+#0", >2#&0";&& -&E$0(= /'"#G2%>, 6&4)2+#& /%2&*02,+#0" & +24+#0$--262 &-F&-&%&-6" & & 62+7,"%+#0$--23 /2,,$%F)& -" )"#$62%&8=, -$ /%2G$++&2-"'1-262 >$-$,F>$-#" >"+E#"420 /%2&*02,+#0" ,'8 6'742)7. '2)"'&*";&. -" >"++202> '2)"'&*";&& %(-)$ ! 9$,2+#"#2) &-0$+#&;&2--(= • <(+2)"8 %$+7%+20 *"0&+&>2+#1 2# ! !2%"'1-2 & G&*&5$+)& &*-2E$--"8 )7%+20 0"'.# & #$=-2'26&5$+)"8 4"*" &*>$-$-&3 #"%&G20 ! <$%#&)"'1-"8 +#%7)#7%" /%2&*02,+#0", -"'&5&$ -$/%2G&'1-(= ")#&020 J+#25-&): Global Insight; "-"'&* BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 8
  • 10.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –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– 24(5-2 ,24"025-23 +#2&>2+#& (-"/%. +&,$-18, %"+E&%$-&8 )'&$-#+)23 4"*( -$42'1E23 "++2%#&>$-# /%2,7)#20 &* +0$5&, 0(='2/-($ +&+#$>( & #.,.) 2,-23 - ,07= )"#$62%&3 )2>/2-$-#20 ! !2%"'1-2 & G&*&5$+)& &*-2E$--"8 #$=-2'26&5$+)"8 4"*" ! U2)7+ -" #$=-2'26&5$+)& /%2+#(= )2>/2-$-#"= + -&*)&> 7%20-$> ! 9&*)&3 7%20$-1 )"5$+#0", -$ ,24"025-23 +#2&>2+#& (-"/%. 4">/$%", /2*02'8.B&3 /2+#"0'8#1 /%2,7);&. F67#(, +0$#2#$=-&)" & #.,.) >$F,7-"%2,-(> OEM & OES !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 9
  • 11.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 V#)* 0("&.)': -&8.'-'3&?'/ $01&%)#++0: .(0'-0.(', .03$&++0: % @0..'', >"' $0.(&(04+0- %,10"# ' 8&4#.(%# M)G4#%,# M)G4#%,# <4&.(+'8' '+(#"#., • 9$,2%2623, -2 -",$F-(3 2020 20$ "0#2>24&'1 !0("#1'(#)' • K"5$+#02 7&8.'-'3&?'/ $01&%)#++0: .(0'-0.(', .03$&++0: % @0..'', >0 %.#- • @&%2)&3 0(42% >2,$'$3 >#"#$#)&- ?#>048' .03$&+'/ .(0'-0.(' (. (#8<=#20 <"0%+/ ~23%1 $0 • 9&*)"8 +#2&>2+#1 <"0%+/ 45-50% % 2020) 0'",$-&8 L%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)' !0.(&%='8' • V"-8#2+#1 • !")+&>"'1-2$ 24$+/$5$-&$ • 9"'&5&$ /%2&*02,+#0" )'.5$0(= @&10(+'8' • ?#"4&'1-(3 ,2=2, )2>/'$)#7.B&= & ,2+#"#25-23 0-7#%$--$62 +/%2+" *" +5$# +(%1$023 4"*( 0 I2++&& 0-7#%$--$62 /%2&*02,+#0" • !")+&>"'1-"8 '2)"'&*";&8 • !")+&>"'1-2 0(+2)"8 ,2'8 M)+/2%#" /%2&*02,+#0" )2>/'$)#7.B&= & • C2,,$%F"-&$ & %"*0&#&$ "0#2>24&'$3 0+$= "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'$3 • !")+&>&*";&8 /%&4('& 0 2#$5$+#0$--(= 4%$-,20, &>$.B&= • <(+2)&3 7%20$-1 )2-;$-#%";&& ,'8 501.(%#+- 2#-2+&#$'1-2 +#"4&'1-23 /2'2F&#$'1-(3 24%"* 0 I2++&& & *" &+/2'1*20"-&8 MGG$)#" >"+E#"4" +'8' 2#%"+'& %74$F2> • :2+#&F$-&$ 6'24"'1-262 +#2&>2+#-262 • :2=2,-2+#1 -" )"/&#"' /%$&>7B$+#0" /2 /%2&*02,+#07 )2>/'$)#7.B&= • !")+&>&*";&8 -"'2620(= /2+#7/'$-&3 Q+(#))#8(<&)*+&/ .01.(%#++0.(*: • ?2;&"'1-"8 +#"4&'1-2+#1 B0.<$&".(%0 %$6&2-20 • 9"'&5&$ +24+#0$--23 4"*( 9JQKI & /"#$-#23 4"*( /2 )'.5$0(> M'$>$-#"> / • L2%,2+#1 2#$5$+#0$--(> )2>/2-$-#"> / &-,7+#%&"'1-(> %$E$-&8> 4%$-,2> J+#25-&): P)+/$%#-"8 L%7//" 1 - 2# +202)7/-262 %"*>$%" %(-)" + M)+/2%#". ?%$,-&3 /2)"*"#$'1 *" 2008-200966. !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 10
  • 12.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 50$#"6&+'# 7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)' ;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'# @&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#: • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)" @&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80% A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#(' B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"& C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/ !"')06#+'/ • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#"> • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8= • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 11
  • 13.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 L%(0",+08 %0..(&+0%'(./ % ."#$+#."04+0: >#".>#8('%# ?G2%>&%20"-( )2-+2'&,&%20"--($ /%26-2*( /2 %(-)"> RA, RKA, LKA, "0#247+20 K#280%,# &%(0-01')' B"<30%,# &%(0-01')' !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – 80+.0)'$'"0%&++0# -+#+'# 98.>#"(+0: 2"<>>, RA RKA LKA A0# !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – 80+.0)'$'"0%&++0# -+#+'# 98.>#"(+0: 2"<>>, RA RKA LKA A0# M 2020 20$< >"02+03'"<#(./ %0..(&+0%)#+'# 01F#-& 502)&.+0 +&'10)## %#"0/(+0-< .?#+&"'G, % 2020 20$< ",+8& &/- $0 2,8-4,1 -)+. &/- 01F#- ",+8& 2"<30%'80% .0.(&%'( 200-230 (,.. &/- -#./"# 0+#123& .(4"#567 2/%1 8+#123& $#567 4+9,#5&"#5 !#"'0$ >#"%0+&4&)*+020 5(&2+&?'/ !"#0$0)#+'# !0.(8"'3'.+0# 5(&1')'3&?'/ ",+8& !0.(8"'3'.+0# 5(&1')'3&?'/ "0.(& 0(.(&%&+'/ %0..(&+0%)#+'# %0..(&+0%)#+'# ",+8& C%2,"F& -20(= '$6)20(= "/> -0.5%/+3% C%2,"F& 6%7*20&)20 (>'-. $,&-&;) +3+7% (#(+. $,&-&;) 250 5 243 !"#$#%&'()"&* !"#$#%&'()"&* "+&,&) "+&,&) 198 4,1 +11-16% 200 190 4 +14-29% 3,6 502)&.0%&++,: 174 171 186 3.5 1&30%,: .?#+&"': 3,6 3,6 3 !"#$#%&'()"&* 2,8 3,3 3,4 150 46 45 "+&,&) +21% 3,1 125 2.4 2,8 2,8 2.4 2.0 30 2 1,4 1.8 1.8 100 90 89 92 +0% 1,2 1.4 +16% 1.3 1.4 0,8 24 36 29 1,0 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.3 0,4 128 126 1 0.9 0.9 0,5 0,6 0,8 0,8 0.2 0.1 0,7 0.2 0,3 50 95 44 0,9 0,9 60 67 0,8 0,7 0,7 0,7 54 0 0 19952 19962 19972 19982 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E J>/2%# R2)"'&*20"--($ 6-14# D"*20(3 ?;$-"%&& C%26-2* KA!AV C%26-2* Sollers Q#$5$+#0$--($ >14# "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'& ?;$-"%&3 Global Insight 1. C%26-2* +2+#"0'8'+8 -" 4"*$ /%26-2*" %(-)" '$6)20(= "/> & RKA BCG, + 0(5$#2> 4"*20262 +;$-"%&8 RKA /2 ,"--(> %"425$3 6%7//( 2. :"--($ 2 ,2'$ >$F,7-"%2,-(= "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'$3 -$,2+#7/-(; 2;$-)& + #25-2+#1. ,2 10% C%&>$5"-&$: /%26-2* L%7//( KA!AV 0*8# *" 2+-207 0 )"5$+#0$ 4"*20262 +;$-"%&8. J+#25-&): Global Insight (,$)"4%1 2008); A0#2+#"#; 2/(# /%2$)#20 BCG; >2,$'1 %(-)" BCG J+#25-&): Global Insight (2)#84%1 2009 62,"); KA!AV; Sollers; "-"'&* BCG !"#$%&"'( M)+/$%#-23 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 - 06Nov2009.ppt 43 !"#$%&"'( M)+/$%#-23 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 - 06Nov2009.ppt 46 K#28'# 80--#"4#.8'# &%(0-01')' L%(01<., !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), – 80+.0)'$'"0%&++0# -+#+'# 98.>#"(+0: 2"<>>, RA RKA LKA A0# !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –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ollers C%26-2* LAV ?;$-"%&3 Global Insight J>/2%# :%. /%2&*02,&#$'& IU L%7//" LAV C%26-2* LAV C%26-2* KA!AV ?;$-"%&&1 C%&>$5"-&$: Global Insight -$ /%$,2+#"0'8$# ,"--($ 24 "0#247+-2> %(-)$ I2++&& 1. ?;$-"%&& /%$,/2'"6".# +'$,7.B7. 02'"#&'1-2+#1: 02*>2F-2+#1 /20(E$-&8 -" 20% 2#-2+&#$'1-2 4"*20262 7%20-8 0 2/#&>&+#&5$+)2> +;$-"%&& & %&+) +-&F$-&8 -" 40% 0 C%&>$5"-&$: &+#2%&5$+)&$ *-"5$-&8 /2)"*"#$'$3 +26'"+-2 Global Insight. ?;$-"%&3 Sollers %"++>"#%&0"$#+8 )") 4"*20(3. /$++&>&+#&5$+)2> +;$-"%&& J+#25-&): Global Insight (2)#84%1 2009 62,"); Sollers; L%7//" LAV; "-"'&* BCG J+#25-&): L%7//" LAV; KA!AV; "-"'&* BCG !"#$%&"'( M)+/$%#-23 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 - 06Nov2009.ppt 45 !"#$%&"'( M)+/$%#-23 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 - 06Nov2009.ppt 47 !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 12
  • 14.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 A03-06+0 3 0.+0%+,I .?#+&"'/ "&3%'('/ 0("&.)' –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ov2009 v5.ppt 13
  • 15.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 5?#+&"'' >0.("0#+, +& 1&3# 01='I $0><=#+': $)/ .#2-#+(0% KL, KML ' BML H& 3 2'> 0%, 0(# # 3, M)G4#%,# ;#8<=': J&8",(,: M"<>+,: $0><=#+'/ 1 2 !&"(+#".(%0 3 %#8(0" ",+081 1 98.>0"(#" • I2+. OEM 0 2+-20-2> • I2++&3+)&$ OEM • I2+. OEM 24'",".# • I2+. OEM, -$*"0&+&>($ &'& ?#%7)#7%"/ %"42#".# 0 )"5$+#0$ &-#$6%&%20"-( 0 6'24. >2-2/2'&$3, +24+#0. / 0 /"%#-$%+#0$ + 6'24. OEM Q%6"-&*";&8 /%2&*02,&#$'$3 /2 6%7//(, -$+). &-2+#%. '&;$-*&%20"--"8 J? • K2-)7%$-#2+/2+24-( -" )2-#%")#7 OEM '2)"'&*20"-2 6'24"'1-2> 7%20-$ • !$+#-2$ /%2&*02,+#02 • C%2&*02,+#02 0 I2++&& • J>/2%# 25$-1 >"', %2+. • Q%&$-#&%20)" -" M)+/2%#, I(-25-(3 7,20'$#02%8$# '&E1 -";$'$-2 -" 7,20'$#0. OEM /%2&*02,8# #2'1)2 42'$$ 1/3 +24%"--(= 0 OEM ");$-# ~50% +/%2+", 2+#"'1-2$ 0-7#%. +/%2+" – >"'(3 ,'8 0-7#%$--$62 %(-)" I2++&& "/> M)+/2%#&%7$#+8 &>/2%#&%7$#+8 24N$> &>/. & M)+/2%#" • Q,&- &'& -$+)2'1)&= • 2(&'& 42'1E$) OEM • 2-3 -$*"0&+&>(= OEM, • 1 )%7/-(3 )2-+. %2++&3+)&3 ?#$/$-1 -$42'1E&=, >"'2>"+E#. 0=2,8# 0 6'24"'1-($ >"'(3 >"+E#"4 -" -$*"0&+&>(3 OEM + )2-+2'&,";&& OEM, -$ &>$.B&= 6%7//(, *"&>+#07.# >&%202> 7%20-$ -$+)2'1)2 -&E$0(= &6%2)20 +24+#0. J? & >2,$'$3 /'"#G2%>( & /%25. J? • 9$*-"5&#$'1-2$ • ?&'1-2$ /%&+7#+#0&$ • A);$-# -" &>$.B&=+8 • D2'1E&-+#02 )%7/-$3E&= J-2+#%"--($ /%&+7#+#0&$, /2+#"0)& &-2+#%"--(= OES, &-2+#%"--(= OEM, OES /%&+7#+#07.# 0 I2++&&, OES #2'1)2 &-2+#%"--(> >-2625&+'$--($ ?C + >"'(3 7%20$-1 ");$-# -" /2+#"0)& OEM >$+#-(>& )2>/"-&8>& '2)"'&*";&& %2++&3+)&> OEM OES • 9$)2-)7%$-#-(, • ?C %2++&3+)&= OES + • A);$-# #2'1)2 -" %2+. • K2-)7%&%7.# + I2++&3+)&$ /2+#"0)& #2'1)2 &-2+#%"--(>& OEM &-2+#%"--(>& )2>/"-&8>& OES *"/5"+#$3 7+#"%$0E&= /"%#-$%">& %2+. >2,$'$3 I2'1 • 9JQKI +7B$+#07$# • I2++&8 – 5"+#1 6'24. • 9JQKI #2'1)2 7 %2+. • C2'-2>"+E#"4-($ %2++&3+)23 #2'1)2 -" 7%20-$ +$#& 9JQKI &-2+#%. OEM /2,%"*,$'$-&8 9JQKI 9JQKI /%2&*02,+#0. /'2B",2) QW!, +2 +/$;. ");$-#2> %2++&3+)&= OEM PQEM@ • Q6%"-&5$- &-F$-$%-(> • A);$-# -" &>$.B&$+8 0 • A);$-# -" %"*%"42#)7 • A);$-# -" %"*%"42#)7 A);$-# 24$+/$5$-&$> I2++&& /%$&>7B$+#0" >2,$'$3 ,'8 I2++&& >2,$'$3//'"#G2%> ,'8 9JQKI /%2&*02,+#0" (-"/%., >"#$%&"'() >&%20262 %(-)" 1. ?;$-"%&3 «V")%(#(3 %(-2)» -$02*>2F$- )") +">2+#28#$'1-(3 !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 14
  • 16.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 M&6$,: '3 .?#+&"'#% 0?#+#+ >0 (0-<, 8&8 0+ .>0.01.(%<#( $0.('6#+'G .("&(#2'4#.8'I ?#)#:... 1 2 3 ;#8<=': J&8",(,: M"<>+,: M)G4#%,# .(0"0+, 5#20$+/ %#8(0" !&"(+#".(%0 ",+081 1 98.>0"(#" • C2)%(#&$ 0-7#%$--$62 +/%2+" 0-7#%$--&> /%2&*02,+#02> OEM • <(+2)"8 ,2'8 M)+/2%#" • ?24+#0$--($ /2*&#&0-($ 4%$-,( • K'.5$0($ )2>/'$)#7.B&$ & +(%1$0"8 4"*" 0 I2++&& • !")+&>"'1-"8 '2)"'&*";&8 OES • :2+#&F$-&$ MGG$)#" >"+E#"4" • :2+#&F$-&$ 6'24"'1-262 +#2&>2+#-262 /%$&>7B$+#0" • ?24+#0$--"8 4"*" 9JQKI / IP /"#$-#20 • I$"'&+#&5-2+#1 Q(020%,: "#:('+2 .?#+&"'#% 9$ +22#0$#+#07$# ;$'8> Y"+#&5-2 +22#0$#+#07$# ;$'8> C2'-2+#1. +22#0$#+#07$# ;$'8> 1. ?;$-"%&3 «V")%(#(3 %(-2)» -$02*>2F$- )") +">2+#28#$'1-(3 !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 15
  • 17.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 ... ' 8&8 0+ .00(%#(.(%<#( '+(#"#.&- 8)G4#%,I <4&.(+'80% ",+8& 1 2 3 M)G4#%,# M)G4#%,# ;#8<=': J&8",(,: M"<>+,: <4&.(+'8' '+(#"#., 5#20$+/ %#8(0" !&"(+#".(%0 ",+081 1 98.>0"(#" • 9$,2%2623, -2 -",$F-(3 "0#2>24&'1 • K"5$+#02 !0("#1'(#)' • @&%2)&3 0(42% >2,$'$3 • 9&*)"8 +#2&>2+#1 0'",$-&8 • V"-8#2+#1 @&10(+'8' • ?#"4&'1-(3 ,2=2, • !")+&>&*";&8 /%&4('& 0 501.(%#+- 2#-2+&#$'1-2 +#"4&'1-23 +'8' 2#%"+'& • :2=2,-2+#1 -" )"/&#"' • !")+&>&*";&8 -"'2620(= /2+#7/'$-&3 • ?2;&"'1-"8 +#"4&'1-2+#1 B0.<$&".(%0 %$6&2-20 • L2%,2+#1 2#$5$+#0$--(> 4%$-,2> C2'-2+#1. +22#0$#+#07$# Y"+#&5-2 +22#0$#+#07$# 1. ?;$-"%&3 «V")%(#(3 %(-2)» -$02*>2F$- )") +">2+#28#$'1-(3 9$ +22#0$#+#07$# J+#25-&): A-"'&* M)+/$%#-23 6%7//(, BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 16
  • 18.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 50$#"6&+'# 7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)' ;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'# @&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#: • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)" @&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80% A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#(' B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"& C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/ !"')06#+'/ • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#"> • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8= • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 17
  • 19.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 RA RKA LKA A0# K#280%,# &%(0-01')': ?#)#%,- 1<$#( .?#+&"'' 8"<>+020 98.>0"(#"&, 8 80(0"0-< +<6+0 >"0:(' 4#"#3 >&"(+#".(%0 5("<8(<"& 1 2 3 ",+8& ;#8<=': %#8(0" !&"(+#".(%0 M"<>+,: 98.>0"(#" 1 <-7#%$--&3 %(-2) 3.6M 3.6M 3.6M 1.8M 700K 1M 2 J>/2%# (50%) (~20%) (~28%) <-7#%$--$$ 3 1.9M 3.15M 4M /%2&*02,+#02 100K 250K 1.4M 4 P)+/2%# (~5%) (8%) (35%) I"+/%$,$'$-&$ 0.6M 1.3M 1.65M 1.5M 3M 1M 5 30% 70% 52% 48% 75% 25% 0-7#%. /%2&*02,+#0" 6 I"+/%$,$'$-&$ ... '2)"'1-(= OEM I"+/%$,$'$-&$ &-2+#%. ... ... .. 7 '2)"'&*20"--(= OEM I"+/%$,$'$-&$ 8 M)+/2%#" ! ! @ @ 5 5 B B ! ! @ @ 5 5 B B ! ! @ @ 5 5 B B ?22#0$#+#0&$ &-#$%$+"> )'.5$0(= 75"+#-&)20 I2++&3+)&$ -$*"0&+&>($ QW! I2+. QW! 0 /"%#-$%+#0$ J+#25-&)&: K">"*, L"*, ?2''$%+; Global Insight; !2,$'1 %(-)" BCG; A-"'&* BCG J-2+#%"--($ OEM !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 18
  • 20.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –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€ -)"$) P#01I0$'-,# '+%#.('?'', € -)"$. R&D *" %74$F2> !2,$%-&*";&8 C"%#-$%( 2,4 1,2 2,4 OEM 7+#. >2B-2+#$3 L2+.6"%"-#&& 920($ >2B-2+#& 0,0 1,3 3,6 C%8>2$ 62+. PT 920($ >2B-2+#& 0,0 G&-"-+&%20"-&$ 1,2 2,4 5,6 9,2 OES 920($ >2B-2+#& 1.6 9JQKI /'"#G2%>, 9,0 4,4 9,7 7,6 6,3 0,6 R&D >2,$'$3 J#262 3,4 14,9 25,2 L2+7,"%+#02 25% 50% 75% 25% J+#25-&) 50% G&-"-+. K2>/"-&& 75% 0 10 20 30 40 0 10 20 30 40 0 10 20 30 40 Q+%#.('?'' A,"<48& 2010-2020 1.3% 3.7% 5% !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 19
  • 21.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 RA RKA LKA A0# KML: ?#)#%,- 1<$#( .?#+&"'' 8"<>+020 98.>0"(#"&, 8 80(0"0-< +<6+0 >"0:(' 4#"#3 >&"(+#".(%0 1 2 4 5("<8(<"& @,+8& !&"(+#".(%0 M"<>+,: 98.>0"(#" ;#8<=': %#8(0" 1 <-7#%$--&3 %(-2) 350K 350K 350K 175M 70K 70K 2 J>/2%# (50%) (~20%) (~20%) <-7#%$--$$ 3 185K 330K 430K /%2&*02,+#02 10K 50K 1.50K 4 P)+/2%# (~5%) (15%) (~35%) I"+/%$,$'$-&$ 0-7#%. 55K 130K 305K 25K 410K 20K 5 30% 70% 93% 7% 95% 5% /%2&*02,+#0" 6 I"+/%$,$'$-&$ ... ... '2)"'1-(= OEM 7 I"+/%$,$'$-&$ &-2+#%. ... ... ... '2)"'&*20"--(= OEM 8 I"+/%$,$'$-&$ M)+/2%#" ?22#0$#+#0&$ ! ! @ @ 5 5 B B ! ! @ @ 5 5 B B ! ! @ @ 5 5 B B &-#$%$+"> )'.5$0(= 75"+#-&)20 I2++&3+)&$ -$*"0&+&>($ QW! I2+. QW! 0 /"%#-$%+#0$ J+#25-&)&: K">"*, L"*, ?2''$%+; Global Insight; P)+/$%#-"8 L%7//"; A-"'&* BCG J-2+#%"--($ OEM !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 20
  • 22.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 RA RKA LKA A0# 5?#+&"'' "&3)'4&G(./ +#01I0$'-,- $)/ $0.('6#+'/ ?#)#%,I 01F#-0% <.')'/-, ' .0><(.(%<G='- '3$#"68&- M)G4#%,# >&"&-#(", 1 ;#8<=': %#8(0" 2 !&"(+#".(%0 3 M"<>+,: 98.>0"(#" M0)-%0 "0..':.8'I -$+)2'1)2 -$+)2'1)2 2 '2"080% W"0%#+* .0("<$+'4#.(%& +42%)" /2 )2-#%")#7 /"%#-$%+#02 IP IP . 2)01&)*+,-' OEM K08&)*+,# OEM 0 4 /2 '&;$-*&& 2 +24+#0. + 2 /2 '&;$-*&& # >)&(N0"- K08&)*+,# OEM # -0$#)#:2 ~ ~ ~ E1F#- >"0'3%0$.(%& / 185K / 3.7 330K / 6.6 430K / 8.6 %,"<48& 2020 (€ -)"$.)1 P#01I0$'-,# '+%#.('?'', € -)"$. !2,$%-&*";&8 R&D *" %74$F2> 0,3 0,5 0,5 7+#. >2B-2+#$3 C"%#-$%( OEM :2/2'-&#$'1-($ 0,3 L2+.6"%"-#&& >2B-2+#& 920($ C%8>2$ 62+. 0,2 0,4 PT >2B-2+#& G&-"-+&%20"-&$ OES OES 0,3 0,9 1,2 C'"#G2%>(, 0,8 0,2 2,6 0,1 R&D 0,4 1,3 >2,$'& <+$62 1,0 2,4 5,0 J+#25-&) L2+7,"%+#02 25% 50% 75% 25% G&-"-+. K2>/"-&& 75% 50% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Q+%#.('?'' A,"<48& 2010-2020 2.7% 4.7% 8.6% 1. Q4N$> 0(%75)& 7)"*"- 0 #$)7B&= ;$-"=, /%& ,2/7B$-&& 2 +%$,-$3 ;$-$ RKA ~20K EUR ) 2020 62,7 2. C2-8#&$ >2,$'& ) RKA -$ /%&>$-&>2 !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 21
  • 23.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –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lobal Insight; !2,$'1 %(-)" BCG; A-"'&* BCG C%2&*02,+#02 *" %74$F2> !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 22
  • 24.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –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€ -)"$. !2,$%-&*";&8 0,8 0,8 OEM 7+#. >2B-2+#$3 920($ >2B-2+#&1 0,0 1,9 PT 920($ >2B-2+#& 1,2 1,2 OES 920($ >2B-2+#& 0,8 0.8 9JQKI /'"#G2%>, 4.3 2,5 4.3 2,9 >2,$'$3 R&D J#262 6.5 8,4 R&D *" %74$F2> L2+7,"%+#02 50% 75% C"%#-$%( J+#25-&) L2+.6"%"-#&& G&-"-+. K2>/"-&& 50% 25% C%8>2$ 62+. 0 5 10 15 0 5 10 15 G&-"-+&%20"-&$ Q+%#.('?'' A,"<48& 2010-2020 3.2% 3.2% 1. <)'.5"8 €1 >'%,. -" M&A ,'8 +;$-"%&8 )%7/-262 M)+/2%#$%" J+#25-&)&: K">"*, L"*, ?2''$%+; Global Insight; !2,$'1 %(-)" BCG; A-"'&* BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 23
  • 25.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –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lobal Insight; P)+/$%#-"8 L%7//"; A-"'&* BCG J-2+#%"--($ OEM !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 24
  • 26.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –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€ -)"$.)1 P#01I0$'-,# '+%#.('?'', € -)"$. C"%#-$%( !2,$%-&*";&8 7+#. >2B-2+#$3 0,1 L2+.6"%"-#&& 0,1 OEM :2/2'-&#$'1-($ 0,0 C%8>2$ 62+. >2B-2+#& 920($ G&-"-+&%20"-&$ 0,0 0,0 PT >2B-2+#& OES 0,5 0,5 OES C'"#G2%>(, 0,6 0,6 R&D >2,$'& <+$62 1,2 1,2 J+#25-&) L2+7,"%+#02 50% 75% 25% G&-"-+. K2>/"-&& 50% 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 Q+%#.('?'' A,"<48& 2010-2020 9.5% 7.9% 1. Q4N$> 0(%75)& 7)"*"- 0 #$)7B&= ;$-"=, /%& ,2/7B$-&8= 2 +%$,-&= ;$-"= /2 +$6>$-#"> "0#247+-262 %(-)" & 0$+"= M#&= +$6>$-#20 0 2020 6. +%$,-88 ;$-" "0#247+" +2+#"0'8$# 2.4 >'-. %74. !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 25
  • 27.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 50$#"6&+'# 7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)' ;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'# @&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#: • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)" @&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80% A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#(' B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"& C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/ !"')06#+'/ • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#"> • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8= • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 26
  • 28.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 !0 ("#- .?#+&"'/-, ("#1<#-,# '+%#.('?'' .<=#.(%#++0 "&3)'4&G(./ P#01I0$'-,# 1 2 3 M"<>+,: '+%#.('?'' ;#8<=': %#8(0" !&"(+#".(%0 98.>0"(#" € -)"$. !2,$%-&*";&8 A0#247+( C"%#-$%( 2.4 3.8 3.8 7+#. >2B-2+#$3 LKA L2+.6"%"-#&& OEM RKA C%8>2$ 62+. 920($ >2B-2+#& 0.0 G&-"-+&%20"-&$ 1.3 5.8 RA PT 920($ >2B-2+#& 1.2 2.6 4.0 OES 920($ >2B-2+#& 3.2 7.8 11.7 9JQKI /'"#G2%>, 12,8 12,4 9,3 R&D >2,$'$3 5.3 9.5 14.5 J#262 12 25 40 J+#25-&) L2+7,"%+#02 25% 50% 75% 25% G&-"-+. K2>/"-&& 75% 50% 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 Q+%#.('?'' A,"<48& 2010-2020 J#262 2.3% 3.6% 4.7% ? 75$#2> 9JQKI 4.7% 5.5% 5.8% *" %74$F2> J+#25-&): %$*7'1#"#( 24+7F,$-&8 M)+/$%#-23 6%7//( !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 27
  • 29.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 P& 1&3# .("&(#2'4#.8'I 8"'(#"'#%, ("#1<#-,I '+%#.('?': ' "#&)'3<#-0.(' %,1"&+, ?#)#%,# .?#+&"'' 1 2 3 ;#8<=': J&8",(,: M"<>+,: M)G4#%,# .(0"0+, 5#20$+/ %#8(0" !&"(+#".(%0 ",+081 1 98.>0"(#" • C2)%(#&$ 0-7#%$--$62 +/%2+" 0-7#%$--&> /%2&*02,+#02> OEM • <(+2)"8 ,2'8 M)+/2%#" • ?24+#0$--($ /2*&#&0-($ 4%$-,( • K'.5$0($ )2>/'$)#7.B&$ & +(%1$0"8 4"*" 0 I2++&& • !")+&>"'1-"8 '2)"'&*";&8 OES • :2+#&F$-&$ MGG$)#" >"+E#"4" • :2+#&F$-&$ 6'24"'1-262 +#2&>2+#-262 /%$&>7B$+#0" • ?24+#0$--"8 4"*" 9JQKI / IP /"#$-#20 • I$"'&+#&5-2+#1 • :2'62+%25. 7+#235&02+#1 +;$-"%&8 • I"*>$% &-0$+#&;&3 62+-0" (€ >'%,) 4 12.5 30 (+10) Q(020%,: "#:('+2 .?#+&"'#% 3 1 2 9$ +22#0$#+#07$# ;$'8> Y"+#&5-2 +22#0$#+#07$# ;$'8> C2'-2+#1. +22#0$#+#07$# ;$'8> 1. ?;$-"%&3 «V")%(#(3 %(-2)» -$02*>2F$- )") +">2+#28#$'1-(3 !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 28
  • 30.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 A,1"&++,# ?#)#%,# .?#+&"'' "&3)'4&G(./ >0 .#2-#+(&- 1 ;#8<=': 2 3 M"<>+,: 5#2-#+(, 5#20$+/ %#8(0" !&"(+#".(%0 98.>0"(#" !0/.+#+'/ K#280%,# ,2 2020 -" 2030 ? • I$"'&+#&5-(3 +;$-"%&3 0 0&,7 -$=0"#)& +24+#0$--23 '&)0&,-2+#& -" %"*0&#&$, &%(0-01')' 2#+#"0"-&8 /2 J?, #$=-2'26&5$+)23 4"*$ K#28'# ,2 2020 -" 2030 ? • I$"'&+#&5-(3 +;$-"%&3 0 0&,7 -$=0"#)& 80--#"4#.8'# +24+#0$--23 '&)0&,-2+#& -" %"*0&#&$, &%(0-01')' 2#+#"0"-&8 /2 J?, #$=-2'26&5$+)23 4"*$ • < 0&,7 #$)7B$62 /2'2F$-&$ %2++&3+)&= QW! B"<30%,# ,2 2020 & &= )2-)7%$-#-(= /%$&>7B$+#0 &%(0-01')' • < *-"5&#$'1-23 >$%$ %$"'&*7$#+8 *" +5$# /%8>(= &-2+#%"--(= &-0$+#&;&3 • < 0&,7 ,2>&-&%7.B$62 /2'2F$-&8 ,2 2020 L%(01<., %2++&3+)&= QW!, $,&-23 )2>/2-$-#-23 4"*( + 6%7*20(>& "/> • C2,,$%F&0"$#+8 #"%&G-(>& >$%">& ,2 2020 -" 2030 ? • ?7B$+#07.B"8 4"*" /2+#"0B&)20, !0.(&%='8' G")#&5$+)&, ,2'F-" 4(#1 2#+#%2$-" + -7'8 + 2%&$-#";&$3 -" /20(E$--($ #%$420"-&8 ?C & '2)"'&*20"--(= &-2+#%"--(= OEM !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 29
  • 31.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 V#)#%0: )&+$D&N( &%(0-01')#.("0'(#)*+0: 0("&.)' @0..'' % 2020 20$< B"<30%,# &/- – L%(01<., – .?#+&"': .?#+&"': 5("<8(<"& KL – .?#+&"': KML – .?#+&"': "8"<>+,: "8"<>+,: @,+8& ">&"(+#".(%0" ">&"(+#".(%0" 98.>0"(#"" 98.>0"(#"" 350K 190K 27K 1 <-7#%$--&3 %(-2) 3.6M 70K 2#+7#+#07$# 700K 2#+7#+#07$# 2 J>/2%# (~20%) (~20%) <-7#%$--$$ 3.15M 330K 35K 3 280K /%2&*02,+#02 250K 50K 90K 8K 4 P)+/2%# (8%) (15%) (50%) 100K (23%) I"+/%$,$'$-&$ 1.65M 1.5M 305K 25K 110K 110K 55K 26K 8K 1K 5 52% 48% 93% 7% 40% 40% (75%) (23%) (2%) 0-7#%. /%2&*02,+#0" 20% 6 I"+/%$,$'$-&$ ... ... '2)"'1-(= OEM 7 I"+/%$,$'$-&$ &-2+#%. ... ... .. ... '2)"'&*20"--(= OEM I"+/%$,$'$-&$ 8 M)+/2%#" C%2&*02,+#02 %2++&3+)&= I2++&3+)&$ -$*"0&+&>($ QW! ?K 4%$-,20 *" %74$F2> I2+. QW! 0 /"%#-$%+#0$ J+#25-&): KAMAZ; GAZ; Sollers; Global Insight; >2,$'1 %(-)" BCG; "-"'&* BCG J-2+#%"--($ OEM !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 30
  • 32.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 W 8&6$020 '3 +&>"&%)#+': >0 '+%#.('?'/- #.(* +#.80)*80 %03-06+,I '.(04+'80% N'+&+.'"0%&+'/ P#01I0$'-,# '+%#.('?''1 A03-06+,# N0"-&(, '+%#.('?': A)06#+'/ % .03$&+'# +0%,I -0=+0.(#:, -0$#"+'3&?'G .<=#.(%<G='I – OEM / @; / OES • C%$,2+#"0'$-&$ ,2'62+%25-262 G&-"-+&%20"-&8 (,2 10 '$#) /2 %(-25-(> +#"0)"> (HD – 24$+/$5&#1 G2-,&%20"-&$) !2,$%-&*";&8 A0#247+( • ?74+&,&%20"-&$ )%$,&#-(= +#"02) ,'8 #$=/$%$022%7F$-&8 & 3.8 7+#. >2B-2+#$3 LKA -20262 +#%2&#$'1+#0" – ,2 100% 75$#-23 +#"0)& HD RKA • U&-"-+&%20"-&$ 62+7,"%+#02> +#%2&#$'1+#0" &-G%"+#%7)#7%( & OEM 920($ RA &-F$-$%-(= 24N$)#20, 0 #.5. #$=-2/"%)20 & &-,7+#%&"'1-(= *2- 3.2 >2B-2+#& (G$,$%"'1-(3 & >$+#-(3 4.,F$#( 5$%$* #%"-+G$%) • C%8>2$ 75"+#&$ 0 )"/&#"'$ 0 2#-2E$-&& /%2$)#20 +2 +%2)">& 920($ 2)7/"$>2+#& +0(E$ 10 '$# (*"62#20&#$'1-($ & &-($ /$%$,$'() 2.6 • ?-&F$-&$ #">2F$--(= /2E'&- -" 2#,$'1-($ 0&,( PT >2B-2+#& #$=-2'26&5$+)262 242%7,20"-&8 • U&-"-+&%20"-&$ /%&24%$#$-&8 /%2&*02,+#0$--(= ")#&020 *" 920($ OES >2B-2+#& 7.8 %74$F2> 62+7,"%+#0$--(>& 4"-)">& + /2+'$,7.B$3 /%2,"F$3 %2++&3+)&> 4&*-$+-+#%7)#7%"> 9JQKI A)06#+'/ % '+(#))#8(<&)*+<G .01.(%#++0.(* /'"#G2%>, 12.4 • L2+7,"%+#0$--2$ G&-"-+&%20"-&$ &--20";&2--(= 9JQKI R&D >2,$'$3 • R162#-2$ -"'26224'2F$-&$ %"+=2,20 -" 9JQKI • U&-"-+&%20"-&$ /%&24%$#$-&8 &-F&-&%&-620(= )2>/"-&3 *" J#262 14.9 26.81 %74$F2> 62+7,"%+#0$--(>& 4"-)">& + /2+'$,7.B$3 /%2,"F$3 %2++&3+)&> 4&*-$+-+#%7)#7%"> • ?-&F$-&$ #">2F$--(= /2E'&- -" 2#,$'1-($ 0&,( 0 10 20 30 40 &++'$,20"#$'1+)262 & #$=-2'26&5$+)262 242%7,20"-&8 • U&-"-+&%20"-&$ /%26%">> /2,62#20)& )",%20, 0 #.5. 0 >&%20(= #$=-2'26&5$+)&= ;$-#%"= *" %74$F2> 1. ?;$-"%&3 "/"%#-$%+#02" ,'8 RA & RKA, +;$-"%&3 ")%7/-(3 M)+/2%#$%" ,'8 6%7*20&)20 & "0#247+20 J+#25-&): <+#%$5" %"425$3 6%7//( !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 31
  • 33.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 50$#"6&+'# 7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)' ;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'# @&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#: • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)" @&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80% A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#(' B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"& C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/ !"')06#+'/ • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#"> • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8= • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 32
  • 34.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 @0..':.8&/ 1&3& >0.(&%='80% -#+## "&3%'(&, 4#- +& $"<2'I ",+8&I BRIC – >"'-#", 98.>0"(& $1.7 @0..'/1 >'%,. • A))7>7'8#2%( • R&+#20"8/'&#"8/+0"%25-"8 +#"'1 • ?#$)'2 • K%"+)" • C'"+#>"++20($ ,$#"'& $9.1 2#,$')& H"&3')'/ >'%,. • @#">/20)" • A'.>&-&$0($ ,$#"'& • O2%>2* • K2'$-5"#(3 0"' $30.0 • D'2)& ;&'&-,%20, 62'20)& M'(&: >'%,. )'"/"-20 & )"%#$%( $3.0 Q+$'/ >'%,. • O2%>2*" • ?&+#$>" /2,26%$0" • C2%E-& ,0&6"#$'$3 • K2%24)& /$%$,"5 • P'$)#%2/%202,)" • L&,%"0'&5$+)&$ • D2'#( • O2/'&0-($ -"+2+( • P'$)#%2--($ +&+#$>( ,$#"'& • P'$)#%2/%202,)" • R&#($ &'& • C'"+#>"++20($/ • R&#"8 +#"'1 E#">/20"--($ %$*&-20($ ,$#"'& • K2'$-5"#(3 0"' ,$#"'& ,0&6"#$'8 • I",&2 • K2%24)& /$%$,"5 • C%$,2=%"-&#$'&/ • !&)%2G2-( P)+/2%# )2>/'$)#7.B&= ,'8 • IT/ /%2$)#&%2025-($ /$%$)'.5"#$'& • K2'$+", ,$#"'& "0#2>24&'$+#%2$-&8, 2008 +$%0&+( • ?#$)'2 +&,$-&3 • R">/( • ?0"%-($ 6"3)& 1. <2*>2F-($ -"5"'1-($ #25)&: I2++&8 /2)" -$ -" 7%20-$ ,%76&= +#%"- BRIC J+#25-&): Global Insight; UN Comtrade Database; A-"'&* /%$++(; :"--($ )2%/2%";&3; J-#$%01. )2>/"-&3; L2,20($ 2#5$#(; A-"'&* BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 33
  • 35.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 K'D* +#.80)*80 -#6$<+&"0$+,I >0.(&%='80% <6# 0"2&+'30%&)' >"0'3%0$.(%0 % @0..'' J* 120 0$,7B&= >&%20(= K"'&-&-6%", /2+#"0B&)20, ?"-)#-C$#$%47%6 #2'1)2 12 !2+)0" 2+7B$+#0'8.# 9.92062%2, ,$8#$'1-2+#1 0 I2++&& 0 K"'76" JF$0+) -$*-"5&#$'1-(= O"6"-%26 O2'18##&/?">"%" 24N$>"= 9"4.Y$'-( W)"#$%&-47%6 Y$%)$++) :$3+#07.B&$ C'"-&%7$>($ H0)*D'+.(%0 >0.(&%='80% "&3-#=&G( >"0'3%0$.(%0 % .<=#.(%<G='I ?#+("&I &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)' J+#25-&): Avtostat; Expert Online; Global Insight; J-#$%01. BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 34
  • 36.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –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utoComp) 25 AutoC 24 KRISTA 25 AV.AGR 17 DSK 18 TADEM 24 AVTOKOM 23 UMM 6 SAvZh 13 Norma 2 TNT 1 TZTO 25 Polad 24 EPK 7 AutoK 3 Termoform 2 Itelma 6 Tital 8 BelAvDet 13 Technores 6 :%76&$ 97 77 Ø 14 53 65 K2'-02 48 41 41 42 33 32 36 36 38 39 33 29 24 29 31 30 25 31 22 23 Ø 39 75"+#-&)20 17 0 )"#$62%&& :2'8 24N$>" )"#$62%&&: <5% 5–25% 25–50% 50–75% 75–100% C%&>$5"-&$: A-"'&* 2+-20"- -" +#%7)#7%$ *")7/2) 0$,7B&= %2++&3+)&= /%2&*02,&#$'$3, 0)'.5"8 #2'1)2 /2+#"0)& -" /$%0&5-(3 %(-2) J+#25-&): Avtostat; J-#$%-$#-+"3#( )2>/"-&3; A-"'&* BCG; Q/(# /%2$)#20 BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 35
  • 37.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 E( %#"('8&)' 8 20"'30+(&)' – .I#-& "#.("<8(<"'3&?'' )&+$D&N(& "0..':.8'I >0.(&%='80% &%(080->0+#+(0% " " -# -# ! "' 5<=#.(%<G=': )&+$D&N( – ! "' H<$<=': )&+$D&N( – %#"('8&)*+,# "&32"&+'4#+'/ 20"'30+(&)*+&/ .>#?'&)'3&?'/ !0.(&%='8' >0$ !0.(&%='8' >0$ P#3&%'.'-,# P#3&%'.'-,# ;'>, ;'>, 80+("0)#- 80+("0)#- "0..':.8'# "0..':.8'# Q+0.("&++,# Q+0.("&++,# >0.(&%='80% >0.(&%='80% >"0'3%0$'(#)#: >"0'3%0$'(#)#: >0.(&%='8' >0.(&%='8' >0.(&%='8' >0.(&%='8' OEM1 OEM1 OEM2 OEM2 … … C%2$)#&%20"-&$ "/> C%2$)#&%20"-&$ "/> C2#%$4-2+#1 0 -27-="7 :0&6"#$'& :0&6"#$'& OEM OEM U&-"'1-"8 +42%)" U&-"'1-"8 +42%)" . . . . . . ?&+#$>" 7/%"0'$-&8 ?&+#$>" 7/%"0'$-&8 @/$ O2%>2*-"8 +&+#$>" @/$ O2%>2*-"8 +&+#$>" 1 1 ?&+#$>" +&,$-&3 ?&+#$>" +&,$-&3 . . . . . . @$+#$%-& @$+#$%-& @/$ O2%>2*-($ )2'2,)& @/$ O2%>2*-($ )2'2,)& 2 2 2-3 K"%)"+ +&,$-&3 . K"%)"+ +&,$-&3 . /2+#"0B&)" . . . . 0 )"F,23 R&#1$ R&#1$ )"#$62%&& @/$ @#">/20)" @/$ @#">/20)" 3 3 … … . . . . . C2#%$4-2+#1 0 . &-0$+#&;&8= ?(%1$0($ >"#$%&"'( ?(%1$0($ >"#$%&"'( @/$ @/$ 4 L"3)&, 42'#( & #.,. 4 L"3)&, 42'#( & #.,. … … . . . . . . • 9$,2+#"#25-(3 >"+E#"4 /2+#"0B&)20 "0#2)2>/2-$-#20 • D2'1E&3 >"+E#"4, +/$;&"'&*";&8 -" -$42'1E2> -"42%$ • C25#& -$# )2-)7%$-;&&, -&*)2$ )"5$+#02 )"#$62%&3 /%2,7);&& ,'8 42'1E23 4"*( /2#%$4&#$'$3 • 9$# +#&>7'" &-0$+#&%20"#1 0 -20($ /%2,7)#( • 2-3 75"+#-&)" 0 )"F,23 )"#$62%&& ,'8 /%$,2#0%"B$-&8 >2-2/2'&& • < ,2'62+%25-23 /$%+/$)#&0$ – -$+/2+24-2+#1 24$+/$5&#1 • C20(E$-&$ )"5$+#0" *" +5$# +/$;&"'&*";&& & )2-)7%$-;&& )2>/2-$-#( ,'8 -20(= /%2,7)#20/&-2+#%"--(= /%2&*02,&#$'$3 • D2'$$ /%&0'$)"#$'1-(3 '"-,E"G# ,'8 ?C + 6'24"'1-(>& /2+#"0B&)">& "0#2)2>/2-$-#20 J+#25-&): A-"'&* BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 36
  • 38.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 A .#2-#+(# KL ("#1<G(./ '+%#.('?'' % >"0'3%0$.(%0 80->0+#+(0% >0 10)*D'+.(%< 8)G4#%,I <3)0% V#)#%&/ E.+0%+,# 2"<>>, )08&)'3. C#(&)*+0# 0>'.&+'# +#01I0$'-,I 80->0+#+(0% P&3+&4#+'# 60-70% – L">>" 4$-*&-20(= ,0&6"#$'$3 %"425&> 24N$>2> 1.1-1.4-1.6-1.8-2-2.2 ' (Euro4-5) :0&6"#$'1 RA – !$="-&5$+)&$ )2%24)& /$%$,"5 & "0#2>"#&*&%20"--($ («%242#(») – P'$>$-#( +&+#$> /2'-262 /%&02,", 0 #.5. + "0#2>"#&5$+)&> 7/%"0'$-&$> RA, RKA O%"-+>&++&8 50-60% – @IT?( – !-262%(5"F-($ (/2,%7'&0".B&$) *",-&$ /2,0$+)& & 7/%"0'8$>($ + RA, RKA 50% &*>$-8$>23 F$+#)2+#1. ">2%#&*"#2%( @"++& – I7'$0($ >$="-&*>( + 6&,%2- & M'$)#%27+&'&#$'8>& – O2%>2*-($ >$="-&*>(, AD?, +&+#$>( +#"4&'&*";&& & "0#2>"#&*";&& ,0&F$-&8 – ?&,$-18 P'$>$-#( – J-+#%7>$-#"'1-($ & ,0$%-($ /"-$'& ,!)2>4&-";&& /%&42%20 – ?&+#$>( +#$)'225&+#)&,!+#$)'2/2,N$>-&)&,!*">)& ,0$%$3 RA, RKA, LKA, A0# &-#$%1$%" & 60% – ?0$#2#$=-&)" M)+#$%1$%" – K'&>"#&5$+)&$ +&+#$>( P'$)#%2- – L$-$%"#2%(, +#"%#$%( RA, RKA, LKA, A0# 50% – P'$)#%2>$=. /%&02,(, /$%$)'.5"#$'& 242%7,20"-&$ ?&+#$>( – I$>-& 4$*2/"+-2+#& + /%$,-"#862> RA, RKA, LKA, A0# /"++&0-23 30-40% – C2,7E)& 4$*2/"+-2+#& ,'8 02,&#$'8 & /"++"F&%20 4$*2/"+-2+#& – I",&"#2%(, C%25$$ 70% – ?&+#$>( /2,"5& #2/'&0" RA, RKA, LKA, A0# – ?&+#$>( 0(/7+)" 2#%"42#"0E&= 6"*20 J+#25-&): 9ACAK !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 37
  • 39.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 !0 KML, 50))#". 3&>)&+'"0%&) %,.08<G )08&)'3&?'G 80->0+#+(0%, $0.(<>+,I 8 .0%-#.(+0-< '.>0)*30%&+'G E1F#- E.+0%+,# 2"<>>, >"0'3-%& C#(&)*+0# 0>'.&+'# +#01I0$'-,I 80->0+#+(0% P&3+&4#+'# 90 #(+. $,./62, – :&*$'1-(3 2.3 ' - /%$,-"*-"5"$#+8 ,'8 Ducato & 0-$,2%2F-&)20 TAV (1-"8 25$%$,1) – :&*$'1-(3 3 ' (,2/2'-&#$'1-(3 24N$>) – /%$,-"*-"5"$#+8 ,'8 '$6)&= :0&6"#$'1 6%7*20&)20 & "0#247+20 RKA, RA – SUV, LDT 75 #(+. $,./62, – K2%24)" /$%$,"5 ,'8 Ducato (1-"8 25$%$,1) – P'$>$-#( +&+#$> /%&02," O%"-+>&++&8 RKA – P'$>$-#( /2,0$+)& @"++& RKA – C$%$,-&$ /"-$'&, )2>4&-";&& /%&42%20 P'$>$-#( – ?&,$-&8 & /2' &-#$%1$%" & – K2>/2-$-#( 0-7#%$--$3 2#,$')& RKA M)+#$%1$%" – @#">/20"--($ ,$#"'& )7*20" – C'"+#>"++20($ ,$#"'& )7*20" K7*20-($ ,$#"'& – ?#$)'" RKA – ?&+#$>( 0(/7+)" 2#%"42#"0E&= 6"*20 – P'$)#%2242%7,20"-&$ C%25$$ – K2'$+-($ ,&+)& & E&-( RKA J+#25-&): ?2''$%+ !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 38
  • 40.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 50$#"6&+'# 7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)' ;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'# @&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#: • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)" @&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80% A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#(' B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"& C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/ !"')06#+'/ • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#"> • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8= • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 39
  • 41.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –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ov2009 v5.ppt 40
  • 42.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –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eutsches Kraftfahrzeuggewerbe association (2008) !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 41
  • 43.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 A (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#(' +#01I0$'- N08<. +& >0.)#>"0$&6+0- 01.)<6'%&+'' M0->0+#+(, ;"#1<#-,# (0%&"0- <.')'/ >"0%0$/=#: .#(' KL KML BML L%(01<., "#2<)/(0"& • :&'$%+)"8 +$#1 &>$$# ",$)0"#-2$ • :&'$%+)"8 +$#1 • D2'1E"8 5"+#1 /%2,"F B2B, /'2#-2+#1 /2)%(#&$ +#%"-(, -$ 80'. 7*)&> 5"+#&5-2 ,&'$%+)23 +$#& -$ 0"F-" !"0$&6' 4#"#3 >$+#2> /$%$+$)"$#+8 + • C2#%$4-2+#& 0 -20(= ,&'. ;$-#%"= RA, -$ 80'. $')#".8'# 02*-&)-7# -$ %"-1E$ 2013-2014 7*)&> >$+#2> ?#+(", • Q#)%(#&$ ;$-#%" *"-&>"$# >"'2 • D2'1E"8 ,2'8 0%$>$-& (~6 >$+.) /%2,"F B2B • < 42'1E&-+#0$ OEM -$ %"*0&#( • K'.5$0(3 )"-"' /%2,"F, =2%2E2 %"*0&# 7 #$)7B&= &6%2)20 !"0$&6' • Y"+#2 &,7# 5$%$* ,&'$%20 • <2*>2F-($ 7'75E$-&8 /2 +&+#$>$ 24+'7F&0"-&8 )'.)'&$-#20 8)G4#%,- ,2'F-( 0-$,%8#1+8 +">&>& QW! 8)'#+(&- • CCQ -$ 80'8$#+8 2+-20-(> • ?$#& CCQ – 2,&- &* )'.5$0(= G")#2%20 /%2,"F G")#2%2> /%2,"F, -2 0'&8$# -" • O$)7B$$ /2)%(#&$ +$#& CCQ -$24=2,&>2 %"+E&%8#1 ,2 02+/%&8#&$ )"5$+#0" / 4%$-," 62%2,20 23 – 33 0$'&5&- !0.)#>"0$&6+0# • 9$24=2,&>( +#"-,"%#( )"5$+#0" • <2*>2F-"8 %2'1 62+7,"%+#0" – /%$,2+#"0'$-&$ CCQ, +2*,"-&$ +$%0&+-(= +$#$3 262 G&-"-+&%20"-&8, +2*,"-&$ #%$420"-&3 /2 +#"-,"%#"> 01.)<6'%&+'# 7%20-8 24+'7F&0"-&8 • ?7B$+#0$--2$ ,2/2'-$-&$ ) +$#& CCQ !0.(&%8' • < ,"--(3 >2>$-#, +7B$+#0$--"8 ,2'8 /2+#"02) */5 &,$# 5$%$* +$%($ %(-)&, -"%7E"8 /%"0" ,$%F"#$'$3 #2%620(= >"%2) 3&>4&.(#: • <2*>2F-"8 %2'1 62+7,"%+#0" – %$67'&%20"-&$ +$)#2%", 2/%$,$'$-&$ +#"-,"%#20 )"5$+#0", /%$+$5$-&$ -$'$6"'1-(= /2+#"02) !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 42
  • 44.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 50$#"6&+'# 7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)' ;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'# @&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#: • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)" @&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80% A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#(' B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"& C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/ !"')06#+'/ • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#"> • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8= • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 43
  • 45.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 H#+4-&"8'+2 >0$(%#"6$&#(, 4(0 -#", >0$$#"68' &%(0>"0-& -02<( 1,(* <.')#+, M)G4#%,# 9)#-#+(, M'(&: H"&3')'/ >0)'('8' W.')#+'# • H$'$023 7%20$-1 '2)"'&*";&& – 30% +%"*7 /2+'$ • H$'$023 7%20$-1 '2)"'&*";&& – )") >&-&>7> 40% *"/7+)" /%2&*02,+#0" >"&%') • Q48*"#$'1-"8 '2)"'&*";&8 /%2&*02,+#0" • D'"62,"%8 2+#"'1-(> >$%"> – %$"'1-(3 7%20$-1 )08&)'3&?'' ,0&6"#$'$3 '2)"'&*";&& ~80% • U&-. & .%. /2,,$%F)" M&A OES & OEM • C%$,2+#"0'$-&$ /%"0" %"--$62 0(=2," -" %(-2) & • !&-. #%$420"-&8 ,'8 &-2+#%"--(= &-0$+#&;&3: W>"&%)#+'# /2+'$,7.B$$ 7F$+#25$-&$ #%$420"-&3 ) – !&-. &-0$+#&;&& (2 >'%,. ."-$3) >&"(+#".(%&-' '2)"'&*";&& 24$+/$5&'& ,2>&-&%20"-&$ 3 – R2)"'&*";&8 /%2&*02,+#0" ,0&6"#$'$3 75"+#-&)20: VW, Fiat & GM – O2'1)2 -" 2+-20$ ?C, + ,2'8>& 50-50 • 9"'26 -" &>/2%# CBU1 - 30% + 2#-2+&#$'1-2 • < 1995 62,7 -"'26 -" CBU 70$'&5$- + 20% ,270%, 7,"'$--2$ 6$26%"G&5$+)2$ /2'2F$-&$ *"#$> /2+#$/$--2 +-&F$- ,2 35% (0 -"+#.0%.). 9"'26 J&='(& ",+8& • H$'$023 7%20$-1 )2-+2'&,";&& – #2/-10 4%$-,20 = -" )2>/'$)#7.B&$ – ,2 40% 90% %(-)" • K2-)%$#-($ ;$'& /2 M)2'26&5$+)23 4$*2/"+-2+#& • V"#%"#( -" 9JQKI -$ 24'"6".#+8 -"'262>; +-&F$- (+-&F$-&$ 0(4%2+20 CO2) -"'26 -" ")#&0(, &+/2'1*7$>($ ,'8 9JQKI 5('-<)'"0%&+'# • 10 >'%,. ."-$3 0(,$'$-( 0 2009 62,7 -" 9JQKI 0 • L2+&-0$+#&;&& 0 9JQKI "'1#$%-"#&0-262 PQEM@ "0#2>24&'$+#%2$-&& "6&4%&,-262" #2/'&0", 2+24. M#"-2'" • ?74+&,&& -" %"*%"42#)7 M'$)#%2>24&'$3 • K2-;$-#%";&8 %(-)" ,'8 24$+/. 4%"*&'1+)262 9JQKI 5('-<)'"0%&+'# • ?-&F$-&$ -"'26" -" /2)7/)7 0 /$%&2,( +-&F$-&8 • V-"5&#$'1-($ -"'2620($ '162#( ,'8 .>"0.& +/%2+" (2009) >"'2'&#%"F-(= "/> 7#", >0 • C%26%">>( *">$-( "/> & +74+&,&& -" /%2&*02,+#02 • :2'62+%25-2$ %$67'&%20"-&$, -"/%. ABS & /2,7E)& 01+0%)#+'G >"'2'&#%"F-(= "/> 4$*2/"+-2+#& 248*"#$'1-( + 2014 62," >&"8& 1. CBU – Completely Built Up (+24%"--(3 "0#2>24&'1) J+#25-&): BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 44
  • 46.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 E.+0%+,# -#"0>"'/('/ >0 20.<$&".(%#++0: >0$$#"68# &%(0-01')*+0: >"0-,D)#++0.(' $0 2020 20$& 5#2-#+( 2010 20$ 2011 – 2012 20$, 2013 – 2020 • C2,,$%F)" +/%2+" -" %(-)$ & >$%( • ?#%7)#7%-($ >$%2/%&8#&8 /2 /2 24-20'$-&. /"%)" /2,,$%F)$ +/%2+" • I"*%"42#)" >$% #"%&G-262 & • C20(E$-&$ #%$420"-&3 /2 -$#"%&G-262 %$67'&%20"-&8 '2)"'&*";&& ,'8 &-2+#%"--(= • I"*%"42#)" & 0-$,%$-&$ /'"-" )2>/"-&3 L%(0 6'742)23 '2)"'&*";&& 4-5 • ?2*,"-&$ +$%0&+-23 +$#& 262 7%20-8 • ?%2) ,$3+#0&8 *"B&#-(= >$% &-2+#%"--(= QW! *")"-5&0"$#+8 0 2016-2017 6. , + >"0'3%0$'(#)' ,"'1-$3E&> /$%$=2,2> -" %"42#7 0 • I$+#%7)#7%&*";&8 #$)7B&= ,2'620(= 248*"#$'1+#0 /%$,/%&8#&3 %">)"= 6'24"'1-(= #2%620(= • C2,62#20)" & %$"'&*";&8 /%26%">> %$+#%7)#7%&*";&& #%",&;&2--(= ")#&020 +26'"E$-&3 (A0#2<AV, LAV, TAV, VJR, KA!AV) + 0(,$'$-&$> )2>/2-$-#-(= /%2&*02,+#0 & /$%$,$'20 • <-$,%$-&$ >$%2/%&8#&3 /2 • I"*%"42#)" +&+#$>-(= >$%2/%&8#&3 /2 /2,,$%F)$ M)+/2%#" +#&>7'&%20"-&. &+/2'1*20"-&8 %$+7%+2-+4$%$6".B$62 #%"-+/2%#" • K2-+2'&,&%20"#1 /%&-8#&$ %$E$-&3 /2 0(42%7 /2+#"0B&)20 • I"*0&#&$ ,2%2F-23 &-G%"+#%7)#7%(, • ?#&>7'&%20"-&$ &-2+#%"--(= • J-0$+#&;&& 0 +2*,"-&$ -20(= " #")F$ &-G%"+#%7)#7%( /2+#"0B&)20 1 7%20-8 ,'8 +2*,"-&8 /%2&*02,+#0 & %"*%"42#)7 -20(= !0.(&%='8' ?C (-$ >$-$$ 2 -" #$=-2'26&3 &+/2'1*20"-&8 "'1#$%-"#&0-(= 0&,20 #2/'&0" (CNG) (%8). .')0%,# )2>/2-$-#/7*$'/"6%$6"#) • C%2$)#( +(%1$0(= /$%$,$'20 • C%$,/%2$)#-($ &++'$,20"-&8 /2 ('&#$3-($, )7*-$5-($ & #.,.) &2"#2&(,) +2*,"-&. -20(= )2>/2-$-#-(= /%2&*02,+#0 & #$=-2'26&3 • K2-+2'&,";&8 2+-20-(= 6%7// %2++&3+)&= /2+#"0B&)20 +20>$+#-2 + O1, O2 • ?2*,"-&$ ;$-#%20 )2>/$#$-;&3 /2 %"*%"42#)$ & /%$,2+#"0'$-&. • C%&0'$5$-&$ '&;$-*&3 2# • ?20>$+#-2$ G&-"-+&%20"-&$ /2 &-F&-&%&-620(= 7+'76, 0 #.5. &-2+#%"--(= )2>/"-&3 %"*%"42#)$ 6'24"'1-(= /'"#G2%> & +20>$+#-2 + &-2+#%"--(>& • C2)7/)" ")#&020 *" %74$F2> /$%+/$)#&0-(= /%2$)#20 PQEM@ /"%#-$%">& + $,&-23 )22%,&-";&$3 • K2-+2'&,";&8 &-F$-$%-(= /2,%"*,$'$-&3 OEM, >"++&%20"--($ &-0$+#&;&& 0 9JQKI • I"*%"42#)" >$% /2,,$%F)& ,'8 /2,62#20)& )",%20 0 ")",$>&5$+)23 & /%&)'",-23 -"7)$ • <-$,%$-&$ /")$#" >$% 62+ G&-"-+&%20"-&8 /$%$,20(= %"*%"42#2) !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 45
  • 47.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 C)/ %0>)0=#+'/ "&3)'4+,I .?#+&"'#% ("#1<G(./ "&3+,# -#", 20.<$&".(%#++020 "#2<)'"0%&+'/ M)G4#%,# 9)#-#+(, ;#8<=': 1 2 !&"(+#".(%0 3 M"<>+,: 98.>0"(#" >0)'('8' %#8(0" • U&-"-+&%20"-&$ -$ >$-$$ 75% 2# &-0$+#&;&3 -" • A);$-# ,$8#$'1-2+#& /%"0&#$'1+#0" -" /22B%$-&$ 9JQKI 62+-02> +2#%7,-&5$+#0" %2+. & *"%74. )2>/"-&3 & %"*0&#&$ • C%$,2+#"0'$-&$ 62+. 6"%"-#&3 /2 )%$,&#"> -" /2)7/)7 • 9$# 2+2423 /2'&#&)& 62+7,"%+#0$--2-5"+#-262 /"%#-$%+#0" 0 9JQKI & %"*%"42#)7 9JQKI PQEM@ +#&>7'&%20"-&8 • U&-"-+&%20"-&$ -$ >$-$$ 50% &-0$+#&;&3 -" • ?74+&,&& -" %2+. %"*%"42#)& & *")7/)& &-2+#%"--23 9JQKI 9JQKI 62+-02> J? ('&42 M&A 0 9JQKI) • C%$,2+#"0'$-&$ 62+. 6"%"-#&3 /2 )%$,&#"> -" • ?74+&,&& +2*,"-&8 ;$-#%" 9JQKI + ;$'1. /2)7/)7 & %"*%"42#)7 9JQKI 7-&G&)";&& )2>/2-$-#-23 4"*( /2 HCV & "0#247+"> • C20(E$-&$ #"%&G" -" &>/2%# 62#20(=1 "/> ,2 80%, + • O$)7B&3 7%20$-1 • C20(E$-&$ #"%&G" -" &>/2%# 62#20(=1 "/> ,2 /2+'$,7.B&> +-&F$-&$> ,2 30% 0 2020 #"%&G20 -" 002* 40% • ?74+&,&& %2++&3+)&> OEM -" >2,$%-&*";&. /%2&*0. 62#20(= "/> & • C22B%$-&$ +2*,"-&8 ?C + *"%74$F-(>& /%-'8>& L%(0- >2B-2+#$3 -$*-"5&#$'1-($ • Q6%"-&5$-&$ ,2'& &-. /"%#-$%20 -" 7%20-$ 50% >"0'3%0$'(#)' • A)#&0-2$ &+/2'1*20"-&$ 62+. *")"*20 7+&'&8, -"/%"0'. -" • ?74+&,&& -" '2)"'&*";&. & 70$'&5. >2B-2+#$3 • :'&--($ )%$,. %$+7%+( /2 +/2-+&%20"--23 '2)"'&*";&. • :'&--($ )%$,. %$+7%+( /2 +/2-+&%20"--23 MGG$)#&0-23 )%$,&#-23 +#"0)$ /%2&*02,+#0" MGG$)#&0-23 )%$,&#-23 +#"0)$ • K2>/'$)+-"8 /%26%">>" /2,,$%F)& M)+/2%#" • C20(E$-&$ #"%&G" -" &>/2%# )2>/2-$-#20 ,2 40% • C20(E$-&$ #"%&G" -" &>/2%# )2>/2-$-#20 ,2 40% • ?74+&,&& -" &-0$+#&;&& OES 0 +2*,. + -7'8 & • J-0$+#&;&& & +/2-+2%+)"8 /2,,$%F)" %2++&3+)&= OES %"*0&#&$ &>$.B. /%2&*02,+#0. >2B-2+#$3 (25% - ,'8 >2,$%-&*";&& /%2&*02,+#0$--(= >2B-2+#$3 (75% 62+-02) • O$)7B&3 7%20$-1 - 62+-02) • C22B%$-&$ +2*,"-&8 ?C & )2-+2'&,";&& !"0'3%0$.(%0 +74+&,&3 & /%25"8 • P)+/2%#-($ +74+&,&& -" /%2&*0$,$--($ 0 I2++&& • :&%$)#&0-($ #%$420"-&8 /2 '2)"'&*";&& 80->0+#+(0% /2,,$%F)" >$+#-(= )'.5$0(= )2>/2-$-#20 )2>/2-$-#( & &-2+#%. OES • :&%$)#&0-($ #%$420"-&8 /2 '2)"'&*";&& )'.5$0(= • O%$420"-&8 /2 '2)"'&*";&& 50% 5$%$* 5 '$# /2+'$ )2>/2-$-#20 -"5"'" /%2&*02,+#0" • D$+/2E'&--(3 *"02* >"#$%&"'20 ,'8 /%-0" • D$+/2E'&--(3 *"02* >"#$%&"'20 ,'8 /%-0" )2>/2-$-#20 /$%0($ 3 62," )2>/2-$-#20 /$%0($ 3 62," C%&>$5"-&$: 7)"*"--($ +;$-"%&& /%&>$-&>( -$ )2 0+$> +$6>$-#"> 1. L2#20(> +5&#"$#+8 "/>, +24%"--(3 42'$$, 5$> -" 60% J+#25-&): P)+/$%#-"8 L%7//" !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 46
  • 48.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 M"0-# (020, %+# 3&%'.'-0.(' 0( ?#)#%020 .?#+&"'/, +<6#+ 01=': +&10" -#" >0$$#"68' ",+8& M)G4#%,# 9)#-#+(, ;#8<=': 1 2 !&"(+#".(%0 3 M"<>+,: 98.>0"(#" >0)'('8' %#8(0" • ?74+&,&%20"-&$ 7#&'&*";&& +#"%(= "/> • <-$+#& &*>$-$-&8 0 -"'2620(3 )2,$)+ IU, /%$,7+>"#%&0".B&$ 70$'&5$-&$ 4"*2023 +#"0)& #%"-+/2%#-262 -"'26", 0 *"0&+&>2+#& 2# 02*%"+#" "0#2#%"-+/2%#-(= +%$,+#0 • <-$+#& &*>$-$-&8 0 *")2- «Q 4$*2/"+-2+#& ,2%2F-262 ,0&F$-&8», /%$,7+>"#%&0".B&$ !0$$#"68& *"/%$# -" M)+/'7"#";&. 0 )2>>$%5$+)&= ;$'8= ,'8 /$%$02*)& 6%7*20 & /"++"F&%20, ",+8& 2#-2+8B&=+8 ) '&;$-*&%7$>(> 0&,"> ,$8#$'1-2+#& (+26'"+20"#1 + !&-O%"-+2>) – '$6)20($ (PC) – +0(E$ 25 '$# + 2012 6. – RKA (LCV) – +0(E$ 20 '$# ,'8 6%7*20(=, 15 '$# – ,'8 RKA -" /"++"F&%+)&= >"%E%7#"= + 2012 6. – 6%7*20($ (HCV) – +0(E$ 25 '$# + 2011 6. – "0#247+( – +0(E$ 15 '$# + 2011 6. !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 47
  • 49.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 50$#"6&+'# 7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)' ;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'# @&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#: • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)" @&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80% A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#(' B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"& C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/ !"')06#+'/ • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#"> • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8= • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 48
  • 50.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 A,%0$, >0 .>0.01&- "&3%'('/ 0(#4#.(%#++0: &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)' P& 1&3# &+&)'3& %03-06+,I .?#+&"'#%, +&'10)## 0(%#4&G='- .("&(#2'4#.8'- ?#)/- "0..':.80: '+$<.("'' /%)/G(./ .?#+&"'' (1) 8"<>+020 98.>0"(#"& ' (2) >&"(+#".(%& • C%& 75$#$ G")#2%20 %$"'&*7$>2+#& & /2#%$4-2+#& 0 &-0$+#&;&8=, %$)2>$-,7$#+8 ,0&6"#1+8 5$%$* /"%#-$%+#02 0 +;$-"%&3 )%7/-262 M)+/2%#Z%" (,'8 +$6>$-#20 RA & RKA), & -$/2+%$,+#0$--2 0 +;$-"%&3 )%7/-262 M)+/2%#Z%" (,'8 +$6>$-#20 LKA & "0#247+20), /%& 75$#$ -$24=2,&>(= >$% #"%&G-23 *"B&#( %(-)" P& 1&3# <"080% $"<2'I .("&+ H@QM, !"&%'(#)*.(%0 .-06#( +&>"&%'(* 0("&.)* % 80+8<"#+(0.>0.01+0# "<.)0, 3&$#:.(%0%&% 6 0.+0%+,I ",4&20%: • J*>$-$-&$ /%"0&' '2)"'&*";&& 0 5"+#& +#&>7'&%20"-&8 6'24"'1-(= "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'$3 & /%2&*0. )2>/2-$-#20 70$'&5&0"#1 ,24"0'$--7. +#2&>2+#1 0 I2++&& • T/%"0'$-&$ +2*,"-&$> 6'742)&= /"%#-$%+#0 >$F,7 %2++&3+)&>& & 6'24"'1-(>& &6%2)">& /%& -"'&5&& *"6%",&#$'1-(= >$%( /2 )2-#%2'. *" ,2'$3 &-2+#%"--(= &6%2)20 0 %2++&3+)2> "0#2/%2>$ (-$ 42'$$ 50%) • T+&'$-&$ #"%&G-23 & -$#"%&G-23 *"B&#( ,2>"E-$62 %(-)" ,'8 +#&>7'&%20"-&8 '2)"'&*";&& & +2*,"-&8 ?C • C%2,2'F&#1 >$%( /2 +#&>7'&%20"-&. /%$,'2F$-&8 0 24'"+#& 9JQKI, M)2'26&5$+)&= +#"-,"%#20 & +#"-,"%#20 4$*2/"+-2+#& /7#$> /%8>262 G&-"-+&%20"-&8 5"+#& *"#%"# -" 9JQKI & /%$,2+#"0'$-&8 62+6"%"-#&3 • C%2,2'F&#1 >$%( /2 +#&>7'&%20"-&. +/%2+" /7#$> %2*-&5-262 / ,&'$%+)262 )%$,&#20"-&8 • <-$,%&#1 >$%( /2 G2%+&%20"-&. 24-20'$-&8 "0#2/"%)" 0 +$6>$-#$ )2>>$%5$+)&= "/> B0.<$&".(%< +#01I0$'-0 ."04+0 "&3"&10(&(* ' <(%#"$'(* 01=<G .("&(#2'G &%(0>"0-& ' >)&+ $#:.(%':, & &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)/- - +&4&(* "&3"&10(8< ' %+#$"#+'# 6'3+#.>0.01+,I >)&+0% >0 "#.("<8(<"'3&?'' • C%20$%)" 4&*-$+-/'"-20 0+$= OEM & 6'"0-(= OES, + ;$'1. "-"'&*" &= +22#0$#+#0&8 24B$>7 +#%"#$6&5$+)2>7 0&,$-&. & &= ,2'62+%25-23 F&*-$+/2+24-2+#& • Q%6"-&*";&8 / /2,,$%F)" >$% /2 %$+#%7)#7%&*";&& &6%2)20 ,'8 24$+/$5$-&8 )2-)7%$-#2+/2+24-2+#& • C%&0'$5$-&$ &*4%"--(= 6'24"'1-(= &6%2)20 ,'8 75"+#&8 0 %$+#%7)#7%&%20"--(= %2++&3+)&= )2>/"-&8= !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 49
  • 51.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 M 2020 $01&%)#++&/ .(0'-0.(*, .03$&++&/ % @0..'', %,"&.(#( % 4.5 "&3& 4 0.+0%+,I 80->0+#+(& "0.(& 2008 2020 $01&%)#++0: .(0'-0.(' % @0..'' <(%75)" OEM 0 I2++&&1 ~54 ~91 1 Q%6"-&5$+)2$ 70$'&5$-&$ 24N$>20 • <(%75)" 2# M)+/2%#" a/> ~1 ~13 %(-)" J>/2%# "/> 32 21 2 C20(E$-&$ ,2'& M)+/2%#", 2+24$--2 • C%2&*02,+#02 0 I2++&& 23 84 /2 +$6>$-#"> '$6)20(= & 6%7*20(= 9$'2)"'&*20"--($ "/> 11 34 )2>/2-$-#( :24. +#2&>2+#1, 3 ?-&F$-&$ ,2'& &>/2%#" • +2*,"--"8 0 I2++&&2 11 I4.5 50 0 25 50 75 100 125 0 25 50 75 100 125 4 C20(E$-&$ 7%20-8 '2)"'&*";&& • !'%, € !'%, € %2++&3+)&= & &-2+#%"--(= :2'8 "0#2/%2>" 0 0.98% x2.4 2.38% "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'$3 /%& <<C2 (%) %",&)"'1-23 %$+#%7)#7%&*";&& :2'8 ,24"0'$--23 /%2&*02,+#0" )2>/2-$-#20 +#2&>2+#&, +2*,. 0 21% x2.5 48% I2++&& (%)3 1. 9$ 0)'.5"$# >"%F7 ,&'$%20. <)'.5"$# "/>, /%2&*0$,$--($ 0 I2++&& %2++&3+)&>& & &-2+#%"--(>& "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'8>& 2. 9$ 0)'.5"$# )2+0$--($ -"'26& & #">2F$--($ /'"#$F&. 9$ 0)'.5"$# >"%F7 ,&'$%20 & /2+'$/%2,"F-2$ 24+'7F&0"-&$ 3. I"++5&#(0"$#+8 )") (,24. +#2&>2+#1, +2*,"--"8 0 I2++&&/ 24N$> %(-)" 0 I2++&& + M)+/2%# "/>) J+#25-&): 2;$-)& BCG; "-"'&* BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 50
  • 52.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 !0$I0$ 8 "#.("<8(<"'3&?'' &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.(' C%$,'2F$-&8 %"425$3 6%7//( *)$"+)# ,%-..) 11 !"#$%# – / 1 #!0)%# 2010 10 !"#$%# 2009 31 &'()$%# 2009 502)&.0%&+'# %'$#+'/ A+#$"#+'# >)&+& 0("&.)' ' C#(&)'3&?'/ ' >)&+ %+#$"#+'/ "#.("<8(<"'3&?'' ' 20.<$&".(%#++,I -#" >0$$#"68' 0("&.)' • Q4B"8 ;$'1 %2++&3+)23 • :$#"'&*";&8 +#%"#$6&3 %2++&3+)&= • <-$,%$-&$ )%"#)2+%25-(= >$% "0#2/%2>(E'$--2+#& OEM & )'.5$0(= OES /2,,$%F)& -" 2010 6. • C%26-2*( %(-)" /2 • T#25-$-&$ /"%">$#%20 #%$47$>(= • :$#"'&*";&8, 0(0$%)" +$6>$-#"> &-0$+#&;&3 /2 OEM & )'.5$0(> /"%">$#%20, 0-$,%$-&$ >$% • O$)7B"8 +&#7";&8 /2 OES 62+7,"%+#0$--23 /2,,$%F)& "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'8> & • <(0$%)" /"%">$#%20 #"%&G-23 +$)#2%" -" +%$,-$+%25-7. O$>( ) /$%+/$)#&07 )'.5$0($ G")#2%( *"B&#( & 62+7,"%+#0$--23 24+7F,$-&. )2-)7%$-#-2+/2+24-2+#& /2,,$%F)& • I"*%"42#)" & 0-$,%$-&$ /'"-20 & /%2%"42#)$ %$+#%7)#7%&*";&& OEM & • H$'$023 +;$-"%&3 • :$#"'&*";&8 )%"#)2+%25-(= >$% %"*0&#&8 %(-)" /2,,$%F)& "0#2/%2>" (-" 2010 6.) )'.5$0(= OES • O%$47$>($ &-0$+#&;&& • I"*%"42#)" (/%& -$24=2,&>2+#&) • I$67'8%-(3 >2-&#2%&-6 & ;$'$023 /%26%">>( %"*0&#&8 2424B$-&$ %$*7'1#"#20 /2 0+$> • I$)2>$-,";&& /2 %"425&> -"/%"0'$-&8> 62+7,"%+#0$--23 "0#2/%2>", & &-+#%7>$-#" $$ /2'&#&)$ 0-$,%$-&8 S08<. (#8<=#20 01.<6$#+'/ K'.5$0($ " Q,24%$-&$ 0(42%" " ?26'"+20"-&$ >$% " C74'&5-"8 %$*7'1#"#( ;$'$0262 (;$'$0(=) /2,,$%F)& -" 2010 )2>>7-&)";&8 +;$-"%&$0 " ?26'"+20"-&$ /'"-20 %$*7'1#"#20 " C74'&5-"8 )2>>7-&)";&8 %$+#%7)#7%&*";&& %$*7'1#"#20 OEM & OES !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 51
  • 53.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –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ov2009 v5.ppt 52
  • 54.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 !"#$)&2&#-&/ .("<8(<"& ' 0.+0%+,# 3&$&4' @&104#: 2"<>>, >0 &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.(' >"' !"&%'(#)*.(%# @S @&104&/ 2"<>>& >0 &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.(' >"' H&30 % %&"' ,: !"&%'(#)*.(%# @S 7'+'.(#".(%0 980+0-'4#.8020 "&3%'('/ &+( 7'+'.(#".(%0 >"0-,D)#++0.(' ' (0"20%)' 51#"1&+8 ,%76&$ 5'$-( EN'. <>"&%)#+'/ >"0#8(0- W4&.(+'8' ! -/, • T/%"0'$-&$ /%2;$++2> %"42#(, +2*,"-&$ $,&-(= G2%>"#20 24+7F,$-&8 • C'"-&%20"-&$ & /%&2%&#$*&%20"-&$ %"42# • K22%,&-";&8 /2 %"425&> -"/%"0'$-&8>, )2-+2'&,";&8 /2'75$--(= >"#$%&"'20 • A-"'&#&5$+)"8 /2,,$%F)" 1 7#", >0 .('-<)'"0%&+'G .>"0.& 2 @#.("<8(<"'3&?'/ ' 3 @#.("<8(<"'3&?'/ ' '+%#.('?'' % • !2,$%";&8 %"425&= 0+#%$5 ' >"#$)06#+'/ '+%#.('?'' % &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#: >0.(&%='80% W4&.(+'8' W4&.(+'8' W4&.(+'8' ! -/, ! -/, ! -/, C%$,'2F$-&8 /2 ;$'$0(> &*>$-$-&8> • K%&#&5$+)"8 2;$-)" & 7#0$%F,$-&$ • K%&#&5$+)"8 2;$-)" & 7#0$%F,$-&$ /2'&#&)$ /%"0&#$'1+#0" "-#&)%&*&+-(= /'"-20 "-#&)%&*&+-(= /'"-20 • 9"'2620(3/#">2F$--(3 %$F&> 2#$5$+#0$--(= &6%2)20 2#$5$+#0$--(= /2+#"0B&)20 • ?74+&,&& • C%$,'2F$-&8 /2 -"&42'$$ • C2,62#20)" #%$47$>262 0(,$'$-&8 • ?#&>7'&%20"-&$ +/%2+" ;$'$+224%"*-23 )2-G&67%";&& /2+#"0B&)20 &* +2+#"0" • !$="-&*>( 7/%"0'$-&8 2#$5$+#0$--23 "0#2/%2>(E'$--2+#& &-#$6%&%20"--(= • ?#"-,"%#( 0(='2/20/#2/'&0" • C%$,'2F$-&8 /2 2/#&>&*";&& "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'$3 • J-&;&"#&0( /2 %"*0&#&. %$F&>20 0-7#%$--$62 & • C2,62#20)" ) /%20$,$-&. 2#$5$+#0$--(= 9JQKI >$F,7-"%2,-262 +2#%7,-&5$+#0" /$%$6202%20 2 G2%>&%20"-&& • C2,62#20)" ) /%20$,$-&. >$F,7-"%2,-(= /"%#-$%+#0 /$%$6202%20 2 G2%>&%20"-&& >$F,7-"%2,-(= /"%#-$%+#0 J+#25-&): BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 53
  • 55.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 50$#"6&+'# 7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)' ;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'# @&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#: • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)" @&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80% A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#(' B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"& C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/ !"')06#+'/ • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#"> • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8= • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 54
  • 56.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 50$#"6&+'# 7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)' ;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'# @&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#: • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)" @&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80% A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#(' B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"& C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/ !"')06#+'/ • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#"> • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8= • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 55
  • 57.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –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lobal Insight (,$)"4%1 2008); A0#2+#"#; 2/(# /%2$)#20 BCG; >2,$'1 %(-)" BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 56
  • 58.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –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otal 100% 3600K 19-23 2003 2008 2020 2020 2008 A>$%&)" %(-2) (Sollers) 2008 2008 1. Q4B&$ /'"#G2%>( + )'"++2> C J+#25-&): Global insight; "-"'&* BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 57
  • 59.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 RA RKA LKA A0# 502)&.+0 +&'10)## %#"0/(+0-< .?#+&"'G, % 2020 20$< 01F#- ",+8& KML .0.(&%'( 350 (,.. &/- 8+#123& $#567 :;< !#"'0$ 5(&2+&?'/ !"#0$0)#+'# !0.(8"'3'.+0# 5(&1')'3&?'/ ",+8& >#"%0+&4&)*+020 "0.(& 0(.(&%&+'/ %0..(&+0%)#+'# +3+8% C%2,"F& RKA (#(+. $,&-&;) 422 400 !"#$#%&'()"&* 350 "+&,&) !"#$#%&'()"&* +14-18% 300 "+&,&) 283 +1.7% 251 209 210 200 167 170 176 +25% 146 145 149 146 138 134 132 110 105 100 88 99 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E D"*20(3 ?;$-"%&& C%26-2* Sollers C%26-2* LAV ?;$-"%&3 Global Insight C%&>$5"-&$: &+#2%&5$+)&$ *-"5$-&8 /2)"*"#$'$3 +26'"+-2 Global Insight. ?;$-"%&3 Sollers %"++>"#%&0"$#+8 )") 4"*20(3. J+#25-&): Global Insight (2)#84%1 2009 62,"); Sollers; L%7//" LAV; "-"'&* BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 58
  • 60.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 RA RKA LKA A0# 502)&.+0 +&'10)## %#"0/(+0-< .?#+&"'G, % 2020 20$< 01F#- ",+8& 2"<30%,I &/- .0.(&%'( 200-230 (,.. D(. 8+#123& $#567 4+9,#567 2/% !0.(8"'3'.+0# 5(&1')'3&?'/ %0..(&+0%)#+'# ",+8& C%2,"F& 6%7*20(= "/> +3+7% (#(+. $,&-&;) 250 243 !"#$#%&'()"&* "+&,&) 198 200 190 +14-29% 174 171 186 150 46 45 125 30 100 90 89 92 24 36 29 128 126 44 50 95 60 67 54 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 6-14# D"*20(3 ?;$-"%&& C%26-2* KA!AV C%26-2* Sollers >14# ?;$-"%&3 Global Insight C%&>$5"-&$: /%26-2* L%7//( KA!AV 0*8# *" 2+-207 0 )"5$+#0$ 4"*20262 +;$-"%&8. J+#25-&): Global Insight (2)#84%1 2009 62,"); KA!AV; Sollers; "-"'&* BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 59
  • 61.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 RA RKA LKA A0# @,+08 &%(01<.0% +# %0..(&+0%'(./ $0 <"0%+/ 2007 20$& $&6# % 2020 20$< 8+#123& $#567 25=#>9)#5 C%2,"F& "0#247+20 (#(+. $,&-&;) 40 !0.(8"'3'.+0# 5(&1')'3&?'/ ",+8& %0..(&+0%)#+'# 33.1 !"#$#%&'()"&* 30 "+&,&) +4% 26.6 25.0 25.7 24.8 2,4 23.7 22.0 22.5 +11% 19.7 21.1 20.3 18.4 6,0 20 18.3 15.9 13.6 11.4 11.0 10 18,2 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 J>/2%# :%. /%2&*02,&#$'& IU L%7//" LAV C%26-2* LAV C%26-2* KA!AV ?;$-"%&&1 C%&>$5"-&$: Global Insight -$ /%$,2+#"0'8$# ,"--($ 24 "0#247+-2> %(-)$ I2++&& 1. ?;$-"%&& /%$,/2'"6".# +'$,7.B7. 02'"#&'1-2+#1: 02*>2F-2+#1 /20(E$-&8 -" 20% 2#-2+&#$'1-2 4"*20262 7%20-8 0 2/#&>&+#&5$+)2> +;$-"%&& & %&+) +-&F$-&8 -" 40% 0 /$++&>&+#&5$+)2> +;$-"%&& J+#25-&): L%7//" LAV; KA!AV; "-"'&* BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 60
  • 62.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –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ov2009 v5.ppt 61
  • 63.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 50$#"6&+'# 7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)' ;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'# @&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#: • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)" @&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80% A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#(' B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"& C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/ !"')06#+'/ • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#"> • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8= • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 62
  • 64.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 9" /%&>$%$ RA !0 KL % .?#+&"'' «!&"(+#".(%0», $)/ $0.('6#+'# >"0'3%0$.(%& 3.15 -)+. &/- % 2020, % @0..'' +#01I0$'-0 €13-16 -)"$. '+%#.('?': 3 C)/ "#&)'3&?'' .?#+&"'/ !&"(+#".(%03, "0.. &%(0-01')*+0: >"0-,D)#++0.(' +#01I0$'-0 ~€15 -)"$. '+%#.('?': 9$24=2,&>($ 16.4 &-0$+#&;&&, € >'%,. 4.9 15 4.0 4,4 13.3 1.8 10 4.6 1.4 1,6 3.7 14,9 4,0 1.3 5 1.4 1.1 2.7 1.2 1,2 2.2 1,3 2,4 0 !2,$%-&*";&8 920($ 920($ C2+#"0B&)& 1 C2+#"0B&)& 2 9JQKI J#262 7+#. >2B-2+#$3 >2B-2+#& >2B-2+#& T%20-8 T%20-8 Q+%#.(' Q+%#.('?'' Q+%#.(' Q+%#.('?'' ?'' % >"0'3%0$'(#)#: ?'' % &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#: PT1 80->0+#+(0% PQEM@ ?;$-"%&3 «C"%#-$%+#02» /2,%"*7>$0"$# 7%20$-1 '2)"'&*";&& >&-. 50% 1. PT (power train) – #%"-+>&++&8 2. OEM – "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'&, OES – /%2&*02,&#$'& "0#2)2>/2-$-#20 J+#25-&): L'24"'1-"8 A0#2>24&'1-"8 C%")#&)" BCG; A-"'&* BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 63
  • 65.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 9" /%&>$%$ RA E1='# '+%#.('?'' OEM -02<( .0.(&%'(* ~ €3.4-4.1 -)"$. M 2020 2. +#01I0$'-0 <.(&+0%'(* ~500k +0%,I -0=+0.(#: ' -0$#"+'3'"0%&(* ~1100k E1='# 3&("&(, .0.(&%/( €3.4-4.1 -)"$. 70=+0.(', P#01I0$'-&/ C'"-&%7$>($ 1 2 A0#2<AV 750 200 +<6$&G='#./ % $0>0)+'(#)*+&/ T+#"-20'$--($ – +20%$>$--($ 1 01+0%)#+''1 -0=+0.(* T+#"-20'$--($ – /2,'$F"B&$ >2,$%-&*";&& C%25&$ T+#"-20'$--"8 Required incremental 310 777 %2++&3+)&$ OEM >2B-2+#1 – -" capacity >2,$%-&*";&. 0.5 -)+. &/- 1.1 -)+. &/- 1 A.#20 "0..':.8'# OEM 1 060 977 2,037 x x K2MGG&;&$-# K2MGG&;&$-# A.#20 )"/&#"'2$>)2+#& )"/&#"'2$>)2+#& 620 3&"<1#6+,# OEM >2,$%-&*";&& OEM -2023 >2B-2+#& OEM €2.0k-2.5k / &/-2 €2.4k-2.9k / &/- E1=&/ <.(&+0%)#++&/ 1 060 1 597 2,657 = = -0=+0.(* +& .#"#$'+< 2009 2. O%$47$>($ O%$47$>($ 9$24=2,&>"8 2 &-0$+#&;&& OEM &-0$+#&;&& OEM ,2/2'-&#$'1-"8 493 €2.2-2.7 -)"$. €1.2-1.4 -)"$. >2B-2+#1 V#)#%&/ -0=+0.(* 3 150 % 2020 2. 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 1. !2,$%-&*";&8 +7B$+#07.B&= >2B-2+#$3 /2 /%2&*02,+#07 +&'20(= "6%$6"#20 0=2,&# 0 24B&$ *"#%"#( -" >2,$%-&*";&. 7+#"-20'$--23 >2B-2+#& 2. ?#2&>2+#1 >2,$%-&*";&& >2B-2+#$3 /%&-8#" *" ~74% +#2&>2+#& /2+#%23)& -20(= >2B-2+#$3, 2#%"F"8 24B7. ,2'. 242%7,20"-&8 (74%) 0 2+-20-(= +%$,+#0"= 6'24"'1-(= OEM J+#25-&): L'24"'1-"8 A0#2>24&'1-"8 /%")#&)" BCG; A-"'&* BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 64
  • 66.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 9" /%&>$%$ RA E1='# '+%#.('?'' % >"0'3%0$.(%0 1)08& ("&+.-'..'' ~€1.1-1.3 -)"$. M 2020 $0)6+, 1,(* <.(&+0%)#+, -0=+0.(' >0 >"0'3%0$.(%< ~1 -)+. +0%,I ("&+.-'..': ... 01=#: .(0'-0.(*G ~€1.1-1.3 -)"$. A0#20"* 1,00 9$24=2,&>"8 ,24"025-"8 >2B-2+#1 1 -)+. $%'2&(#)#: ?2''$%+ 0,25 LAV K"/&#"'2$>)2+#1 4'2)" #%"-+>&++&& €1.1(,.. -1.3 (,. / $%'2&(#)* J#262 7+#. 1,25 >2B-2+#& = 920($ 9$24=2,&>($ &-0$+#&;&& "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'8 1,00 >2B-2+#& €1.1-1.3 -)"$. J>/2%# 0,90 J#262 %(-2) 3,15 0 1 2 3 4 D'2)& #%"-+>&++&& (>'-. E#.) J+#25-&): L'24"'1-"8 A0#2>24&'1-"8 C%")#&)" BCG; A-"'&* BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 65
  • 67.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 9" /%&>$%$ RA E1='# '+%#.('?'' OES -02<( .0.(&%'(* ~€5.1–6.4 -)"$. M 2020 OES +#01I0$'-, .<=#.(%#++,# '+%#.('?'' $)/ 01.)<6'%&+'/ OEM1 1 ... % "&3-#"# €5.1–6.4 -)"$. 1 Q+%#.('?'' OES W"0%+/ 1 2 !2,$%-&*";&8 Q+%#.('?'' OES W"0%+/ 2 2,2 %2+. >2B-2+#$3 C%2,"F& "/> C%2,"F& "/> 3.15 -)+. &/- 3.15 -)+. &/- J*>$-$-&$ 7%20-8 0,5 * * '2)"'&*";&& &-. OEM ?%$,-88 ;$-" "/> ) 2020 ?%$,-88 ;$-" "/> ) 2020 $20 (,.. = € 13.5 (,.. $20 (,.. = € 13.5 (,.. 920($ >2B-2+#&: 1,0 %2+. QW! * * :24"0'$--"8 +#2&>2+#1 :24"0'$--"8 +#2&>2+#1 OES T%20-8 1 OES T%20-8 1 920($ >2B-2+#&: 50% 0,3 50% &-. QW! * * * ?%$,-&3 70$'&5$--(3 7%20$-1 :24. +#2&>2+#1 J#262 )"/. 0'2F$-&8 4,0 OES T%20-8 1 /2 OES T%20-8 1 1 '2)"'&*";&& & #%$420"-&8 /2 >2,$%-&*";&& >2B-2+#$3 :24"0'$--"8 50% 80% +#2&>2+#1 OES * OES T%20-8 2: T%20-8 2 ,'8 OEM :24. +#2&>2+#1 OES )"/. 0'2F$-&8 )") 0,8 * 10% T%20-8 2 ,'8 OES % 2# /%2,"F OEM T%20-8 1 OES T%20-8 2: OES capital intensity (sales/PP&E) 24% )"/. 0'2F$-&8 )") 0,8 0.29-0.36 * % 2# /%2,"F OES T%20-8 1 = K"/&#"'2$>)2+#1 OES (/%2,"F&/Q?) J#262 )"/. 0'2F$-&8 9$24=2,&>($ &-0$+#&;&& OES 0.29-0.36 1,6 T%20-8 1 /2 OES T%20-8 2 2 €3.7-4.6 -)"$. = 9$24=2,&>($ &-0$+#&;&& OES T%20-8 2 J#262 5,6 €1.4-1.8 -)"$. C%&>$5"-&$: &-0$+#&;&& 0 /%2&*02,+#02 +(%1$0(= >"#$%&"'20 (T%20-& 3-4) 0 "-"'&*$ -$ 75&#(0".#+8 1. OEM – "0#2/%2&*02,&#$'1, OES – /%2&*02,&#$'1 "0#2)2>/2-$-#20 J+#25-&): A-"'&* BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 66
  • 68.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 Backup 9" /%&>$%$ RA !"'-#", 3&%0$0% >"#$>0)&2&G( .(0'-0.(* .("0'(#)*.(%& % ~€2.9k +& &/-; $)/ .')0%,I &2"#2&(0% – ~€1.4k/ $%'2&(#)* J&>&$+&/ O%"0>& ' 5')0%,# @0..'/ H)'6+': A0.(08 &2"#2&(, E1F#- '+%#.('?': (€-)+.) 332 254 5001 231 110 154 3252 1402 308 600 650 425 610 184 154 35 B0$0%&/ 75 125 1501 70 50 50 1102 502 100 210 150 100 184 100 110 42 -0=+0.(* (K) C%&>$% LAV" T,$'1-($ &-0$+#&;&& (€/>2B-2+#1) 42'$$ 5 000 %$"'&+#&5-(3, 4 427 4 333 #.). *"02, 0 4 250 5"#$+## >0 JO/HA J-,&& 0 4 000 5"#$+## >0 @0..'' ø = 3,400 2+-20-2> ø= 2,900 3,3331 3 297 3 315 +42%25-(3 3 077 2,9592 3 077 ø= 3,080 3 000 2,7902 2 200 2 198 2 031 5"#$+## >0 2 000 1 840 .')0%,- &2"#2&(&- 1 399 ø = 1,100 1 000 833 0 OEM GM/AV Ford VW1 GM Toyota Nissan PSA2 Mitsubishi2 Hyundai A0#2<AV Ford Toyota Toyota Honda LAV Daimler (K"'&-") O2'8##& ?"-)#- K"'76" ?"-)#- ?"-)#- ?"-)#- K"'76" K"'76" ?"-)#- O2'18##& Kocaeli Kalin Valcien- Wiltshire X%2+'"0'1 ... @&.>0)06#+'# (I2++&8) C$#$%47%6 (I2++&8) C$#$%47%6 C$#$%47%6 C$#$%47%6 (I2++&8) (I2++&8) C$#$%47%6 (I2++&8) (O7%;&8) Oveay nes (<$'&)2- (I2++&8) (J-,&8) (I2++&8) (I2++&8) (I2++&8) (I2++&8) (I2++&8) (O7%;&8) (U%"-;&8) 4%&#"-&8) C'"-&%7$>($ U7-);&2-&%7.B&$ 1. C%$++-%$'&* VW ,,. 30 -284%8 2007 2. PSA & Mitsubishi /'"-&%20"'& +20>$+#-($ &-0$+#&;&& 0 %"*>$%$ ~€465 >'-. 0 *"02, >2B-2+#1. 160k, ,2'8 PSA +2+#"0'8'" 4( 70% &-0$+#&;&3 & 110k >2B-2+#$3 J+#25-&)&: Global Insight; Automotive News; Toyota Motor Europe; IBM-Plant Location International (IBM-PLI); Industrial Investment Council (IIC) Germany; Invest in France; UK Development Agency; Flanders Foreign Investment Office (FFIO); "-"'&* BCG !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 67
  • 69.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 9" /%&>$%$ RA C#(&)*+&/ 0?#+8& -0=+0.(#: >0 (#I+0)02'4#.8'- >#"#$#)&- >"'%0$'( 8 .0>0.(&%'-0: .<--# '+%#.('?': 70=+0.(' >0 &%(0-01')/- 70=+0.(' >0 $%'2&(#)/- J&("&(, >0 8&(#20"'/-, $M J&("&(, >0 8&(#20"'/-, $M V$>'8 & +22%7F$-&8 96 V$>'8 & +22%7F$-&8 120 J-F$-$%-($ J-F$-$%-($ 7 8 %"42#( %"42#( D'2) 100 ?42%)" 40 L2'20)" ;&'&-,%" 70 C2)%"+)" 100 K2'$-0"' 120 ?0"%)" 60 I"+/%$,0"' 60 C%25&$ %"+=2,( 15 ?42%)" 80 @#">/20)" 60 O$+#&%20"-&$ 30 T+#"-20)", -"'",)" 72 T+#"-20)", -"'",)" 62 J#262 450 J#262 650 0 200 400 0 200 400 600 800 W.(&+0%)#++&/ -0=+0.(*, D(/20$ 250 000 "/> 400 000 ,0&6"#$'$3 M&>'(&)0#-80.(* +& #$'+'?< >"0$<8?'' 1800 $ / 1250€ 1625 $ / 1120€ !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 68
  • 70.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 50$#"6&+'# 7&8"0980+0-'4#.8&/ "0)* &%(0-01')*+0: 0("&.)' ;#8<='# >"01)#-, 0("&.)' ' .("&(#2'4#.80# ?#)#>0)&2&+'# @&3%'('# ",+8& ' >"0'3%0$.(%& >0 .#2-#+(&- &%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)#: • :$#"'& +;$-"%-262 /'"-&%20"-&8 • <(02,( /2 %"*0&#&. %(-)" @&3%'('# ",+8& >0.(&%='80% A0>"0., 0"2&+'3&?'' (0%&"0>"0%0$/=#: .#(' B0.<$&".(%#++&/ >0)'('8& "#2<)'"0%&+'/ .#8(0"& C&)*+#:D'# $#:.(%'/ !"')06#+'/ • :$#"'& %(-25-(= /%26-2*20 /2 +$6>$-#"> • :$#"'& %"+5$#" /2#%$4-2+#$3 0 &-0$+#&;&8= • :$#"'& 2%6"-&*";&& %"425$3 6%7//( /2 "0#2/%2>7 0 ?@A !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 69
  • 71.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 @&104&/ 2"<>>& >0 &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.(' 5XL: &+('8"'3'.+&/ >0$$#"68& 0("&.)' @&104&/ 2"<>>& >0 &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.(' 5XL @&104&/ 2"<>>& • A-#&)%&*&+-"8 /2,,$%F)" "0#2>24&'1-23 2#%"+'& ?@A ;. B#:(+#" (!&-&+#$%+#02 G&-"-+20) • Q;$-)" /'"-20 /2 %$+#%7)#7%&*";&& GM / Chrysler, K. 5&--#"3 (9?P1) J&$&4' 0)'.5"8 2;$-)7 0'&8-&8 (-"/%&>$%, -" /2+#"0B&)20) 8 /%"0&#$'1+#0$--(= 5&-20-&)20, 2#0$5".B&= • Q4$+/$5$-&$ 7+/$E-23 %$"'&*";&& ,2'62+%25-(= *" +22#0$#+#07.B&$ -"/%"0'$-&8 (#.$. 2=%"-" )2-;$/;&3 %"*0&#&8 2#%"+'& #%7,", M-$%6$#&)", #%"-+/2%#, #2%620'8) • K%$,&#-($ 6"%"-#&&, )%$,&#20"-&$ &6%2)20 & 0'2F$-&8 0 7+#"0-(3 )"/&#"' (/2 %$E$-&. I"425$3 6%7//() R8.>#"(+&/ 2"<>>& !0$I0$ • <20'$5$-&$ 0 /%2;$++ 0+$= *"&-#$%$+20"--(= +#2%2- ("0#2/%2&*02,&#$'&, ,$%F"#$'& 24'&6";&3, /%2G+2.*() 5. @&((+#" (4(0E&3 %7)202,&#$'1 &-0$+#. G2-," Quadrangle) • Q4$+/$5$-&$ MGG$)#&0-262 0*"&>2,$3+#0&8 >$F,7 75"+#-&)">& I. D'7> (4(0E&3 +/&)$% USW2/4(0E&3 4"-)&%) A. K%.6$% (7-&0$%+&#$# C%&-+#2-") D. :&* (9?P1) .'"0%&+ • L2+7,"%+#0$--($ )%$,&#( & 6"%"-#&& S'+&+- C%$,+#"0&#$'& 5'$-20 %"425$3 6%7//(, 0)'.: • Q,-")2 -" #$)7B&3 >2>$-# G2-,( $B$ -$ '# %"+/%$,$'$-( 1. 9";&2-"'1-(3 +20$# /2 M)2-2>&)$ 2. United Steelworkers Union – )%7/-$3E"8 /%2G+2.*-"8 2%6"-&*";&8 A>$%&)& J+#25-&): !&-&+#$%+#02 G&-"-+20 ?@A; /%$++" !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 70
  • 72.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 E"2..("<8(<"& @&104#: 2"<>>, >0 &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.(' 5XL !"#3'$#+( 5XL M&1'+#( -'+'.("0% @&104&/ 2"<>>& >0 &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.(' >"' !"#3'$#+(# 5XL T)#+, !"#$.(&%'(#)' • 7'+'.(" N'+&+.0% (.0>"#$.#$&(#)*) • ?20$#-&) !&-&+#$%+#0" G&-"-+20 • C'"#8(0" P&?'0+&)*+020 .0%#(& >0 980+0-'8# (50>"#$.#$&(#)*) • V">.,&%$)#2%" 9?P • !&-&+#% #%"-+/2%#" • I7)202,&#$'1 "//"%"#" !&-&+#$%+#0" #%"-+/2%#" • !&-&+#% #2%620'& • ?#. +20$#-&) !&-&+#$%+#0" #2%620'& • !&-&+#% #%7," • ?#. +20$#-&) !&-&+#$%+#0" #%7," • !&-&+#% M-$%6$#&)& • ?#. +20$#-&) >&-&+#%" M-$%6$#&)& • C%$,+$,"#$'1 ?20$#" M)2-2>&5$+)&= )2-+7'1#"-#20 /%& C%$*&,$-#$ ?@A • ?#. M)2-2>&+# /%& 0&;$-/%$*&,$-#$ D&,$-$ • :&%$)#2% A,>&-&+#%"#&0-2-4.,F$#-262 7/%"0'$-&8 • I7)202,&#$'1 "//"%"#" & +#. M)2-2>&+#, K2-+7'1#";&2--(3 +20$# /2 • A,>&-&+#%"#2% A6$-#+#0" /2 *"B&#$ 2)%7F".B$3 +%$,( 02++#"-20'$-&. M)2-2>&)& • :&%$)#2% "//"%"#" D$'262 ,2>" /2 M-$%6$#&)$ & )'&>"#&5$+)&> &*>$-$-&8> • ?#. +20$#-&) /2 )'&>"#&5$+)23 /2'&#&)$ /%& ",>&-&+#%"#2%$ A6$-#+#0" VQ? • 5(. .0%#(+'8 >0 >"01)#-&- &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.(', 7'+N'+ (x2- • V">.,&%$)#2%" "//"%"#" D$'262 ,2>" /2 M-$%6$#&)$ & )'&>"#&5$+)&> +9"#5#1&=(.& #0(+2?&#$$67 4+900) &*>$-$-&8> W>"&%)#+'# 0>#"&?'/-' – 7'+'.(#".(%0 N'+&+.0% (7S) L%(0>"0'%30$'(#)* 1 L%(0>"0'3%0$'(#)* 2 @<80%0$'(#)' 2"<>> 0( 7S (x2) @<80%0$'(#)' 2"<>> 0( 7S (x2) E>#"&?'0++&/ 2"<>>& 5("&(#2'4#.8&/ 80+.<)*(&?'0++&/ 2"<>>& (BCG) S'+&+.0%&/ 80+.<)*(&?'0++&/ 2"<>>& (Rothschild) Y"'$'4#.8&/ 80+.<)*(&?'0++&/ 2"<>>& (Cadwalader Wickersham & Taft ) !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 71
  • 73.
    !"#$%&"'(#)*+,# -&(#"'&), –%#".'/ +& 9 +0/1"/ 2009 2., 19:00 M)G4#%,# "0)' ' 30+, 0(%#(.(%#++0.(' 4)#+0% @&104#: 2"<>>, W4&.(+'8 J0+& 0(%#(.(%#++0.(' M)G4#%,# "0)' ' "&10(, 5(. .0%#(+'8 >0 J-0$+#. 4"-)&%( • <*"&>22#-2E$-&8 + /%"0&#$'1+#0$--(>& 2%6"-">& ?@A & >"01)#-&- J-0$+#&;&& 0 24"-)%2#&0E&$+8 ")#&0( ,%76&= +#%"- &%(0>"0-,D)#++0.(' • C$%$6202%( + ,$%F"#$'8>& • C$%$6202%( + ,$%F"#$'8>& 24'&6";&3 24'&6";&3 • C$%$6202%( + /%2G+2.*-(>& 2%6"-&*";&8>& O%7,20($ 0*"&>22#-2E$-&8 • <*"&>2,$3+#0&$ + %7)202,&#$'8>& & +20$#">& ,&%$)#2%20 )2>/"-&3 @<80%0$'(#)' 2"<>> 0( U&-"-+( • <*"&>2,$3+#0&$ + %7)202,&#$'8>& & +20$#">& ,&%$)#2%20 7'+'.(#".(%& )2>/"-&3 N'+&+.0% • T/%"0'$-&$ /%2;$++2> )2>/'$)+-262 "7,&#" (due diligence) • T/%"0'$-&$ /%2;$++2> G&-"-+&%20"-&8 5("&(#2'4#.8': .0%#( !$-$,F>$-# )2-+"'#&-6 • Q;$-)" %(-)" • D%$-,(, /%2,"F&, >"%)$#&-6, ,&'$%( • C'"#G2%>( & 9JQKI • Q4B&$ *"#%"#( • C"%#-$%+#0" & "'18-+( • !2,$'&%20"-&$ 2;$-25-(= /%&4('$3 & 74(#)20 S'+&+.0%,: .0%#( J-0$+#. 4"-)& • Q;$-25-($ /2#2)& -"'&5-2+#&, "-"'&* 4"'"-+20(= 2#5$#20 • ?#%7)#7%" ,2'620 & >$="-&*>( G&-"-+&%20"-&8 • A-,$%%"3#&-6 +,$'2) • C%2;$++ G&-"-+&%20"-&8 DIP Y"'$'4#.8': .0%#( K2%/2%"#&0-2$ *")2-2,"#$'1+#02 • A-"'&* & 2;$-)" /2*&;&3 /2 ")#&0">, ,26202%"> & .%.'&;"> • D"-)%2#+#02 • C%2;$,7%" 4"-)%2#+#0" & +;$-"%-2$ /'"-&%20"-&$ • Q4"-)%2#&0E&$+8 )2>/"-&& • C2,,$%F)" /$%$6202%-262 /%2;$++" !"#$%&"'( %"425$3 6%7//( ) 10928 - 07Nov2009 v5.ppt 72