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Egypt Civil Society Support Project (ECSS)
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
‫ﻣﺳﺋﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﺿﻣﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺭﺍء‬
‫ﻭﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﺎﺗﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻛﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺁﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺿﺭﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻛﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺭﻳﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻕ‬
17
–
20
‫ﺍﺑﺭﻳﻝ‬
2013
‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺭﻳﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺭﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﺑﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ‬
:
•
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻘﺩﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺷﺭﺡ‬
•
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﻠﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺗﻁﺑﻳﻕ‬
•
‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﻠﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺗﻁﺑﻳﻕ‬
»
‫ﺍﻛﺳﻳﻝ‬
«
3
4
‫ﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺗﺷﻐﻳﻝ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺷﻐﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬
‫ﻣﺅﺷﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﺎﺱ‬
‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬
‫ﻣﺻﺎﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺗﺻﻣﻳﻡ‬
‫ﺟﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺟﻣﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﺩﺧﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺻﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺗﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺷﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﺑﺭﺍﺯﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻧﻅﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﺭﺗﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﺋﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﺟﺎﺑﺔ‬
.
6
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺽ‬
•
‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﺑﺏ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺷﺭﺡ‬
•
‫ﺇ‬
‫ﻳﺟﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺇ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻷﺳﺋﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﺑﺔ‬
•
‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺑﺷﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻭﻝ‬
•
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻳﻁ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻭﺍﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺭﺑﻁﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺑﺣﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺧﻁﻭﺍﺕ‬
•
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺩﺧﺎﻝ‬
Data entry
•
‫ﺗﺷﻐﻳﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
Data processing
•
‫ﻣﻔﻳﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺣﻭﻳﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
Converting data into useful information
•
‫ﻣﺣﺩﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺳﻳﺭ‬
Interpreting information into specific findings
8
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺩﺧﺎﻝ‬
Data entry
‫ﺑﻌﺩ‬
،‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺗﻬﺎء‬
‫ﻳﻘﻭﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺑﺈﺩﺧﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻟ‬
‫ﺗ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺑﻕ‬
‫ﺭﻣﺯ‬
‫ﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺟﺎﻫﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﺍﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ‬
.
‫ﻭﻣﻥ‬
‫ﺃ‬
‫ﺷﻬﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﺍﻣﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺟﺎﻫﺯﺓ‬
:
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﺣﺯﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺣﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬
SPSS
‫ﻭ‬
Excel
‫ﻭﻳﺟﺏ‬
‫ﻏﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺧﻁﺄ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻬﻭ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺭﺍﻋﺎﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣ‬
‫ﺗ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻌﻣﺩ‬
‫ﺗ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻗﺑﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻌﻣﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻛﺎﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻌﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻵﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ‬
.
9
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺷﻐﻳﻝ‬
Data processing
‫ﻳﻘﺻﺩ‬
‫ﺑﺗﺷﻐﻳﻝ‬
‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺣﺻﺭ‬
‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ‬
‫ﻟﻛﻝ‬
‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﺻﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺣﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﻧﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻧﺩ‬ ‫ﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬
.
‫ﻭﺗﻬﺩﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﻳﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻘﻳﻕ‬
:
·
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺯﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬
‫ﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺧﺎﺿﻌ‬
‫ﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
.
·
‫ﺍﻟﻁﺑﻳﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺳﻳﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﺟﺭﺍء‬
‫ﻟﻠﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﻋﺎﻣ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﻣﻠﺧﺻ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺻﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺻﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺋﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ‬
.
10
‫ﻣﻔﻳﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺣﻭﻳﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
Converting data into useful information
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬
‫ﻹ‬
‫ﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﺋﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﺟﻳﺏ‬
‫ﻣﺳﺑﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﺩﺩﺓ‬
.
‫ﻭﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺧﻁﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻳﺷﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺟﻣﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺷﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻧﻔﻳﺫﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺧﻁﻳﻁﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻔﺿﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﻁﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺩﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﻣﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺗﻧﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻳﺿﻳﻔﻪ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺎ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻛﻠﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
.
11
‫ﻣﺣﺩﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺳﻳﺭ‬
Interpreting information into specific findings
•
‫ﺗﺗﻣﺛﻝ‬
‫ﺧﻁﻭﺓ‬
‫ﺗﻔﺳﻳﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬
‫ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺭﺑﻁ‬
‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﻘﺎﺋﻕ‬
‫ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻧﻘﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬
‫ﺗﻡ‬
‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻣﻥ‬
‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
،‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺑﻳﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻏﺭﺍﺽ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﺅﺷﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻥ‬
‫ﺃﺟﻠﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺗﺟﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
.
‫ﻭﻳﺟﺏ‬
‫ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻧﻼﺣﻅ‬
‫ﺧﻼﻝ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬
‫ﺗﻡ‬
‫ﺗﺟﻣﻳﻌﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺗﺗﺣﻭﻝ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺃﺩﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻟﺗﺟﻳﺏ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﺋﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻁﺭﻭﺣﺔ‬
،
‫ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻧﺟﺎﺡ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻹﻧﺟﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬
‫ﺣﻘﻘﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ‬
/
‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
/
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻅﻣﺔ‬
،
‫ﻭﻛﺫﻟﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺧﻔﺎﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺷﻝ‬
.
12
‫ﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺗﻛﻡ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻛﻡ‬ ‫ﺷﻛﺭﺍ‬
13
Egypt Civil Society Support Project (ECSS)
‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﻡ‬
‫ﺁﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺿﺭﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻛﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﺎﺗﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺋﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﺿﻣﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺭﺍء‬
‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻛﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻅﺎﺋﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺟﻠﺳﺔ؟‬ ‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬
‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺳﻳﺗﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﻠﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ‬
:
•
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻅﺎﺋﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﺭﻑ‬
•
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻅﺎﺋﻑ‬
•
‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬
•
‫ﺗﻔﺳﻳﺭ‬
•
‫ﺗﻘﻳﻳﻡ‬
•
‫ﺷﺭﺡ‬
•
‫ﻣﻧﺎﻗﺷﺔ‬
•
‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻅﺎﺋﻑ‬
‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
-
‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬
‫ﺧﺻﺎﺋﺻﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬
-
‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬
:
‫ﺷﺭﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﺟﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻠﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻥ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﻬﺎﺟﺭﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﺻﺎﺋﺹ‬
17
% ‫ﺃﻗﻝ‬
‫ﻣﻥ‬
20
‫ﺳﻧﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﺭ‬
39
% 20
–
30
‫ﺳﻧﺔ‬
36
% 30
–
40
‫ﺳﻧﺔ‬
8
% 40
‫ﻓﺄﻛﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﺳﻧﺔ‬
31
% ‫ﻣﺗﻌﻠﻡ‬ ‫ﻏﻳﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻠﻳﻡ‬
36
% ‫ﺍﺑﺗﺩﺍﺋﻲ‬
/
‫ﺍﻋﺩﺍﺩﻱ‬
29
% ‫ﺷﻬﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁﺔ‬
4
% ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺷﻬﺎﺩﺓ‬
1350 ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻅﺎﺋﻑ‬
‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
-
‫ﺗﻔﺳﻳﺭ‬
‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﻝ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﺑﺏ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻘﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻔﺫﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻧﺷﻁﺔ‬
.
‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬
:
‫ﺭﻓﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺧﺭﻳﺟﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺭﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺳﻳﺭ‬
‫ﻟﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺎﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻭﻅﻳﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻬﺎﺭﺍﺗﻬﻡ‬
.
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻅﺎﺋﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬
-
‫ﺗﻘﻳﻳﻡ‬
•
‫ﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺣﻘﻘﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻳﻳﻡ‬
•
‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬
:
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺭﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻘﻕ‬
‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻘﻕ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻬﺩﻑ‬
90
%
92
%
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻘﻕ‬
135
115
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺭﻳﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺎﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻧﻅﻳﻡ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻣﻧﻅﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻅﺎﺋﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬
-
‫ﺷﺭﺡ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻷﻧﻣﺎﻁ‬ ،‫ﻭﺍﻟﺛﻘﺎﻓﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﺿﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻟﻭﺻﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻳﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﻟﺑﺎ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‬
.
،‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﻳﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺗﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﺩﺍﺧﻝ‬ ‫ﻭﻛﻳﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺿﻊ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﻛﻳﺯ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺛﻘﺎﻓﻳﺔ‬
.
‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬
:
‫ﻭﺛﻘﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻠﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﻣﺳﺗﻭﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻳﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺑﻛﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻭﺍﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺗﺷﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬
.
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻅﺎﺋﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬
-
‫ﻣﻧﺎﻗﺷﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﺿﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻭﺻﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺗﺭﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺩﺍﺋﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﻧﺎﻗﺷﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬
‫ﺑﻳﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻭﻳﺎﺕ‬
.
‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬
:
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻌﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺗﻳﺎﺟﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺩﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺗﻁﺑﻳﻕ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬
‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﺎﻗﺷﺗﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ،‫ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻳﺎﺟﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺋﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺻﻭﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻧﻅﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻬﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﺎﻗﺷﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻭﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺭﺗﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﺗﻣﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﺟﺗﻣﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‬
.
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻅﺎﺋﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬
-
‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻭﻗﻳﺕ‬ ‫ﻧﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺗﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺑﻕ‬ ‫ﺑﻭﺿﻊ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺿﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺿﻊ‬
• 55
%
• 35
%
‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺧﻁ‬
•
20
%
•
10
%
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻣﺅﺷﺭﺍﺕ‬
•
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺯﺍﺭﻋﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧﺩﻣﻳﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﻳﻛﻧﺔ‬
•
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺯﺍﺭﻋﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧﺩﻣﻳﻥ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻣﺑﻳﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺑﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺁﻣﻧﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﻭﺍﻉ‬
•
‫ﺍﻟﻛﻳﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
:
‫ﺍﻟﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻌﺗﻣﺩ‬
)
‫ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻋﻳﺔ‬
(
‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻌﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻛﺗﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺹ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﻝ‬ ‫ﻭﺷﻭﺍﻫﺩ‬ ‫ﺑﺄﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺩﻋﻭﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺻﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺓ‬
)
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻟﺔ‬
(
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺻﻭﺭ‬
.
•
‫ﺍﻟﻛﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
:
‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺟﻣﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﻟﻭﻟﺗﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺗﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺛﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻥ‬ ،‫ﺟﺩﺍﻭﻝ‬
.
‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻌﺗﺑﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻫﻧﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻛﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻌﻠﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬
.
‫ﺣﺳﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻛﻡ‬ ‫ﺷﻛﺭﺍ‬
‫ﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺗﻛﻡ‬
Egypt Civil Society Support Project (ECSS)
‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﻡ‬
‫ﺁﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺿﺭﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻛﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﺎﺗﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺋﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﺿﻣﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺭﺍء‬
‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻛﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﻳﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻳﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺟﻠﺳﺔ؟‬ ‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬
‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺳﻳﺗﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﻠﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ‬
:
•
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ‬
)
‫ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻋﻳﺔ‬
(
‫ﺍﻟﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺩﺉ‬
•
‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
‫ﻣﻼﺣﻅﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﺑﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺩﻭﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻣﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺷﺎﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﺟﻪ‬ ‫ﻳﺣﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﺩﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻣﻳﺩﺍﻧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻳﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺗﺟﺎﻫﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺟﻬﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻳﺣﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﺎ‬ ،‫ﻋﺩﻳﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬
.
‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﻼﺋﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺑﺩﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻛﺭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺍﺿﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺻﻧﻳﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺿﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻘﻳﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﺋﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻓﺭﺿﻳﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺧﺗﻳﺭﺕ‬ُ‫ﺃ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺿﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺟﺩﻳﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻝ‬
.
‫ﺍﻟﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺩﺉ‬
•
‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺣﻳﺎﻧﺎ‬
‫ﻋﺭﺿﺔ‬ ‫ﱢﻣﻳﻥ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘ‬
‫ﻣﺗﺳﺭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎﺟﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﺧﻼﺹ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺧﺎﻁﺭ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻼﺣﻅﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﺑﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺳﺟﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﻭﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺳﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻧﺩ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻣﻳﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺻﺩﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﺿﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﺋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻳﺩﺍﻧﻳﺔ‬
.
‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﺟﻧﺑﻭﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻛﻥ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺿﻭء‬ ‫ﻁ‬ّ‫ﻠ‬‫ﺳ‬ُ‫ﺗ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻠﺧﺻﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﻛﺗﺎﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﻛﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺟﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﻧﺎﺻﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﺻﺎﺋﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺎﻕ‬
‫ﺗﻘﻳﻳﻣﻪ‬
.
‫ﻟﻠﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﻳﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺧﻁﻭﺍﺕ‬
)
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﺗﺎﺑﺔ‬
(
•
‫ﻣﺗﻌﻣﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻛﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﺍءﺓ‬
/
‫ﺑﺅﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺎﺵ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ‬
/
‫ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺟﺗﻣﻌﻳﺔ‬
•
‫ﺍﻷﺷﺧﺎﺹ‬ ‫ﻋﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﺑﺭ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻌﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺿﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬
•
‫ﺇ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻧﻅﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺟﺯﺍء‬ ‫ﺻﻳﺎﻏﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺩﺓ‬
•
‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺧﺗﻼﻓﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﺭﺍﺑﻁ‬ ‫ﺑﺷﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺿﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﺑﻧﺎء‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
‫ﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﻛﻳﺯ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻊ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻧﻅﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻬﺎﺕ‬
.
‫ﺍﻟﺻﻭﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻧﺟﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻗﺻﺹ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻧﺷﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻛﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺟﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻗﺻﺹ‬
‫ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺗﺣﺳﻳﻥ‬
‫ﻭﻛﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺷﺎﺭﻛﻭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺎﺓ‬
‫ﺣﻳﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬
‫ﻋﺎﺋﻠﺗﻬﻡ‬
‫ﻭﻣﺟﺗﻣﻌﺎﺗﻬﻡ‬
.
‫ﺑﺈﺧﺗﺻﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻛﻲ‬
‫ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺃﺣﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺇﻳﺟﺎﺑﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬
.
‫ﺍﻟﻧﺟﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻗﺻﺹ‬
)
‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
(
‫ﺍﻟﻧﺟﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻣﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻁﺎﺭ‬
•
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺿﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺧﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﺑﻝ‬
:
‫ﻭﻳﺗﻡ‬
‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻘﺩﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﺻﻣﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺎﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺷﺭﺡ‬ ‫ﻓﻳﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺧﻝ‬
•
‫ﺃﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺗﻳﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﻅﻬﺭ‬
/
‫ﻟﻠﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
•
‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬
‫ﺇﻋﻁﺎء‬
‫ﻓﻛﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺗﺿﻣﻧﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ‬
/
‫ﻟﺗﺣﺳﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
‫ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺿﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺍﺭﻳﺦ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻛﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻧﻔﻳﺫ‬ ‫ﻭﺁﻟﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺷﺭﻛﺎء‬
‫ﻭﺟﺩﻭﺍ‬
.
•
‫ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‬
:
‫ﺍﻹﺳﺗﻔﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻫﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻅﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺧﻼﺕ‬
‫ﻣﺧﺭﺟﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ‬
.
‫ﻻﺑﺩ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺻﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺩﻋﻳﻣﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﻘﺎﺋﻕ‬ ‫ﺳﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺭﺳﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬
،‫ﺃﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ‬
‫ﺃﻗﻭﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺗﻁﻔﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺫﻛﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻻﺿﺎﻓﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﻳﻥ‬
•
‫ﺍﻷﺛﺭ‬
:
‫ﺍﻷﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺧﺗﺻﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻳﻭﺿﺢ‬
‫ﺗﻧﻔﻳﺫ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺎﺗﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ‬
/
‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
.
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺭﻳﻑ‬
:
‫ﻭﻣﻧﺳﻕ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻅﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺿﻭﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺻﻑ‬ ‫ﺇﻋﻁﺎء‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻬﺟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬
‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﻭﺿﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺳﺟﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺛﺎﺋﻕ‬ ،‫ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺳﺎﺋﻝ‬
.
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺿﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﺻﻠﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬
:
‫ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬
‫ﺇﺟﺎﺑﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺭﻏﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻧﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻣﻪ‬
‫ﻣﺛﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺿﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻷﺳﺋﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻧﻑ‬
‫ﻣﺛﻝ‬
:
•
‫ﻟﻠﻣﻭﺿﻭﻉ؟‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻫﺗﻣﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺟﺫﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﺑﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺻﺣﻳﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬
•
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣﻭﺿﻭﻉ؟‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻫﺗﻣﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻳﻘﻝ‬ ‫ﺑﺩﺃ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻰ‬
•
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣﻭﺿﻭﻉ؟‬ ‫ﺃﻛﺑﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻫﺗﻣﺎﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺻﺣﻳﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
)
‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
(
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ‬
:
‫ﻁﺭﻳﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﺣﺛﻪ‬ ‫ﻳﺭﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺿﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺣﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻳﺟﺏ‬
‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺭﻫﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺭﻳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﻝ‬
....
‫ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺳﻳﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻳﻪ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺿﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺗﻧﺎﻭﻟﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬
:
،‫ﺍﻷﺳﺑﻭﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺻﺣﻑ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺗﻠﻔﺎﺯ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺩﻳﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺧﺻﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻼﺕ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻼﺕ‬
...
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻠﻔﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺻﺣﻑ‬ ‫ﻧﻁﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻳﺣﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻳﺿﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﻧﺑﻐﻲ‬
..
‫ﺍﻟﺻﺣﻑ‬ ‫ﻫﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻳﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻠﻳﺔ‬
.
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
)
‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
(
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻣﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬
:
‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﺑﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻣﻧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺗﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻳﺟﺏ‬
‫ﻧﻔﺳﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺣﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺑﺩء‬ ‫ﻗﺑﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺳﺎﺋﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺔ‬
.
‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻅﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺗﻬﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻣﻧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺗﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺇﺣﺩﻯ‬
‫ﻣﺛﻝ‬ ‫ﺑﺩﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﻧﻘﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﻳﻧﺎﻳﺭ‬
2011
‫ﻭﻣﻥ‬
‫ﻳﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺛﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺑﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﺑﺕ‬
..
‫ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺣﺩ‬
..
‫ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺛﻧﻳﻥ‬
....
‫ﺣﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻛﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻫﺗﻣﺎﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻹﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻛﺎﻓﺋﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺑﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺃﻳﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻁﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻣﻛﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﺑﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺃﻳﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺧﺗﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﺗﺧﺗﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺻﺣﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
)
‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
(
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺯﺍﻳﺎ‬
:
.1
‫ﺃﺳﻠﻭﺑﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ‫ﻗﺑﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻁﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺻﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﺗﻁﺑﻳﻕ‬ ‫ﺳﻬﻭﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺿﺢ‬
.
.2
‫ﺍﻟﺯﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺑﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺭﺻﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺗﺑﻌﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺳﻬﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻳﻳﺢ‬
.
.3
‫ﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺻﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺄﺛﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺗﺑﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺣﻭﺛﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻌﻠﻳﺔ‬
.
.4
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺿﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻳﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﻭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﻁﺑﻳﻘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﺟﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﻣﺭﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬
.
.5
‫ﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺫ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺻﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺷﺧﺻﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺟﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻳﺳﻣﺢ‬
‫ﻭﻣﺩﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺳﻛﺭﻳﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺭﺟﺎﻝ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺎﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﺟﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻛﺑﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻛﺎﺕ‬
.
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
)
‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
(
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﻳﻭﺏ‬
:
.1
‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺄﺧﻭﺫﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺄﺧﻭﺫﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻟﻭﺳﺎﺋﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺫﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺳﺎﺋﻝ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺣﻘﻳﻘﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺛﺎﺋﻕ‬
‫ﺟﻳﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺑﺻﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ‬
.
.2
‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺻﻧﻳﻔﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﺛﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﺗﻔﺳﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﻣﺯ‬ ‫ﻗﻳﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﻣﻳﺯ‬ ‫ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺗﻁﻠﺏ‬
‫ﻣﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻳﺅﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺧﺑﺭﺗﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﻣﺯ‬ ‫ﺑﺧﻠﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﻣﻳﺯ‬ ‫ﻓﺋﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﻣﻳﺯ‬ ‫ﺻﺣﺔ‬
.
.3
‫ﺍﻷﺳﺑﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺗﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺳﺋﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺟﺎﺑﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺻﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬
.
‫ﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻳﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻫﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﺟﺎﺑﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻭﺟﺩ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺣﻳﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻛﺛﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻔﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻧﺹ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬
.
.4
‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻧﻅﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﻭﺻﻔﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻛﺛﻳﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺗﻧﺗﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺗﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻧﻅﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺗﻘﺭ‬
.
‫ﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺗﻛﻡ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻛﻡ‬ ‫ﺷﻛﺭﺍ‬
Egypt Civil Society Support Project (ECSS)
‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﻡ‬
‫ﺁﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺿﺭﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻛﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﺎﺗﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺋﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﺿﻣﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺭﺍء‬
‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻛﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺟﻠﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻧﺎﺻﺭ‬
•
‫ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻳﻡ‬
)
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬
–
‫ﻭﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺩﻻﻟﻲ‬
-
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬
.(
•
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﻭﺍﻉ‬
•
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺻﻑ‬
.
3
4
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬
‫ﺑـ‬ ‫ﻳﻬﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻡ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬
:

‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺳﺟﻳﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﻭﺍﻫﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﻣﺧﺗﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺧﺎﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ‬
ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺑﻳﺎﻧﻳ‬ ‫ﺗﻣﺛﻳﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻅﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺟﺩﺍﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺻﻧﻳﻔﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺻﻭﺭﺓ‬
.

‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺗﺧﺎﺫ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﺧﻼﺹ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
.

‫ﺑﻳﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺑﺑﻌﺿﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﻭﺍﻫﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬
.
‫ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻳﻡ‬
:
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺳﺎﻡ‬
5
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺳﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺩﻻﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺗﺧﺎﺫ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧﻼﺹ‬ ‫ﻳﻬﺗﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺑﻭﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﺑﺟﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻳﻬﺗﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬
•
‫ﺻﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻧﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﺑﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻘﺩﻳﻣﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺎﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻠﺧﻳﺹ‬
‫ﺍﻟ‬
‫ﻣﻣﻛﻧ‬
‫ﻪ‬
.
•
‫ﻣﻥ‬
‫ﺧﻼﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻳﺳﺗﻁﻳﻊ‬
‫ﺑﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺷﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺎﻧﺏ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺗﺧﺩﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻠﺧﻳﺻﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻧﻅﻳﻣﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺻﻧﻳﻔﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻧﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﻁﺑﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬
‫ﻭﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﻛﺯﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺯﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻑ‬ ‫ﺣﺩ‬ ‫ﺗﺗﻌﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻻﻧﺣﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺷﺗﺕ‬
...
‫ﺍﻟﺦ‬
•
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻅﻳﻔﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻺﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻫﻰ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺧﺭﻭﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺎﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻭﺻﻳﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻌـﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺅﺷﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻬﺎ‬
.
6
‫ﺍﻹﺳﺗﺩﻻﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬
•
‫ﺗﻘﺩﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻧﺎ‬
‫ﻭ‬
‫ﺇ‬
‫ﺳﺗﺩﻻﻻﺕ‬
‫ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬
‫ﻛﻛﻝ‬
،
‫ﺳﺣﺑﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﻓﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬
‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬
،‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬
‫ﺇﺫ‬
‫ﺃ‬
‫ﻥ‬
‫ﺇ‬
‫ﻫﺗﻣﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻣﺟﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬
‫ﺑ‬
‫ﺎﻟﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧﺩﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺑﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺑ‬
‫ﻛﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﺎﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬
.
•
‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺇ‬
‫ﻫﺗﻣﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬
‫ﺍﻹ‬
‫ﺑ‬ ‫ﺳﺗﺩﻹﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺈ‬
‫ﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻭﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻣﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬
Hypotheses Testing
‫ﻟﻠﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬
.
7
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬
‫ﻣﺗﺻﻝ‬
‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬
‫ﻣﻧﻔﺻﻝ‬
‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬
‫ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻝ‬
‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬
‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
8
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬
.1
‫ﺍﻹﺳﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬
Nominal measures
.2
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺗﻳﺑﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬
Ordinal measures
.3
‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺋﺎﺕ‬
Interval measures
9
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬
)
‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
(
.1
‫ﺍﻹﺳﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬
/
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻳﺔ‬
Nominal measures
•
‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﻋﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻔﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺻﻧﻳﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻳﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ‬
‫ﻗﻳﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﺈﻋﻁﺎﺋﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺣﺙ‬
‫ﻋﺩﺩﻳﺔ‬
.
•
‫ﻭﺗﻣﻳﻳﺯﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺭﻳﻑ‬ ‫ﺳﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺩﻻﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻳﻣﺔ‬
.
‫ﻭﻣﻥ‬
‫ﺃﻣﺛﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻹ‬
‫ﺳﻣﻳﺔ‬
:
‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ‬
‫ﺇﺫ‬
‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻳﻌﻁﻲ‬
)
1
(
‫ﻭﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﻧﺎﺙ‬
)
2
(
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺣﻭﺛﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﺻﻑ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺫﻛﻭﺭ‬
‫ﺣﺳﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬
)
1
(
‫ﻣﺳﻠﻡ‬
)
2
(
‫ﻣﺳﻳﺣﻲ‬
)
3
(
‫ﻳﻬﻭﺩﻱ‬
–
‫ﺗﻌﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻫﻧﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺗﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﺿﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻟﻭﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻗﻳﻣﺔ‬
.
10
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬
)
‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
(
.2
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺗﻳﺑﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬
Ordinal measures
•
‫ﻓﻘﻁ‬ ‫ﺗﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﻟﺗﺻﻧﻳﻑ‬
‫ﺗﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺗﺭﺗﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻳﺿﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﻌﻛﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻧﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬
.
‫ﺑﻌﺑﺎﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺷﻳﺎء‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺗﺭﺗﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﻳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻳﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺧﺻﺎﺋﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻛﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ‬
.
‫ﻭﻣﻥ‬
‫ﺃﻣﺛﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺗﻳﺑﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺕ‬
:
‫ﻣﻣﺗﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻼﺏ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ‬
–
‫ﺟﻳﺩ‬
ً‫ﺍ‬‫ﺟﺩ‬
-
‫ﺟﻳﺩ‬
–
‫ﻣﻘﺑﻭﻝ‬
–
‫ﺿﻌﻳﻑ‬
،
‫ﺗﻭﺯﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻠﻳﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻛﺎﻥ‬
:
‫ﺃﻣﻲ‬
–
‫ﺍﺑﺗﺩﺍﺋﻲ‬
-
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻭﻱ‬
-
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻲ‬
–
‫ﻣﺎﺟﺳﺗﻳﺭ‬
–
‫ﺩﻛﺗﻭﺭﺍﻩ‬
11
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬
)
‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬
(
.3
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬
Interval measures
•
‫ﺃﺩﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺑﺩﺃ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﺗﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻘﺳﻳﻣﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺑﻭﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﻳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻳﺷﻳﺭ‬
‫ﺃﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺋﺎﺕ‬
،‫ﺍﻟﻔﺋﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺗﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺣﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻬﻭ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺭﺗﺏ‬
،
‫ﻓﺋﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﻠﺧﻳﺹ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺓ‬
.
‫ﺃﻣﺛﻠﺔ‬
:
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﺋﺎﺕ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺩﺧﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﺋﺎﺕ‬
12
‫ﺍﻟﺑﺳﻳﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻠﺧﻳﺹ‬
13
•
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻧﺎﺳﺏ‬
Ratio
.
•
‫ﺍﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬
Proportion
.
•
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺋﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬
Percentage
.
•
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺩﻝ‬
Rate
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻧﺎﺳﺏ‬
Ratio
14
•
‫ﺭﻗﻣﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬
.
•
‫ﺻﺣﻳﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺣﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺎﺗﺞ‬ ‫ﻭﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻣﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬
‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬
:
‫ﻳﻭﺟﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﺣﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬
500
‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﺭﺱ‬
5
‫ﻣﺩﺍﺭﺱ‬
.
‫ﻟﻠﻣﺩﺍﺭﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﺭﺳﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬
=
5/500
=
100
‫ﻳﻭﺟﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﻥ‬
100
‫ﻣﺩﺭﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﺭﺱ‬
1:100
‫ﺍﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬
Proportion
15
•
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺯء‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬
.
•
‫ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺭﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺯء‬ ‫ﻗﺳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬
.
‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬
:
‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺷﺑﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ‬
30
‫ﺍﺟﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺳﻧﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬
)
20
‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﻝ‬ ‫ﺳﻧﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻅﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﺩﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩ‬
30
‫ﻭﻳﺑﻠﻎ‬ ،‫ﺳﻧﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬
100
.(
‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺷﺑﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺑﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‬
100/20
‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻗﺳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬
20
‫ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﻥ‬ ،
5/1
.
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺋﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬
Percentage
16
•
‫ﺍﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﻠﻪ‬
)
(Proportion
‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺯء‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬
‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺎﺗﺞ‬ ‫ﺿﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ‬
100
.
‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬
:
‫ﺍﻟﺳﺎﺑﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻧﻔﺱ‬
‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺷﺑﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ‬
30
‫ﺳﻧﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬
)
20
‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﻝ‬ ‫ﺳﻧﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻅﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﺩﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩ‬
30
،‫ﺳﻧﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺑﻠﻎ‬
100
.(
‫ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‬
:
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺷﺑﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺑﻠﻎ‬
100/20
x
100
=
20
%
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺩﻝ‬
Rate
17
‫ﺣﺳﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺩﻝ‬
‫ﺯﻣﻧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺭﺍﺣﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﺑﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬
.
‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺣﺳﺎﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻅﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺳﺑﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺷﻬﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺑﺷﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﺧﺩﻣﺎﺗﻬﺎ‬
–
‫ﺳﻧﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺭﺑﻊ‬
–
‫ﺳﻧﻭﻱ‬
.
‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬
:
‫ﻳﻧﺎﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺷﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺧﺩﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻅﻣﺔ‬
2010
‫ﺧﺩﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﻔﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻅﻣﺔ‬
200
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺑﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻧﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻭﻧﻳﻭ‬ ‫ﺷﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬ ،‫ﺷﺧﺹ‬
1100
)
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻧﺷﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺷﻬﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺩﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺳﺏ‬
.(
1100
–
200
=
900
‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺎﺗﺞ‬ ‫ﻳﻘﺳﻡ‬ ،
6
)
‫ﺍﻟﺷﻬﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬
(
‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺩﻝ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﻥ‬
150
ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺷﻬﺭﻳ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩ‬
.
‫ﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺗﻛﻡ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻛﻡ‬ ‫ﺷﻛﺭﺍ‬
18
Egypt Civil Society Support Project (ECSS)
‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﻡ‬
Analyzing Quantitative Data
Using MS Excel 2010
‫ﺍﻷﻛﺳﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺗﻁﺑﻳﻕ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺎﺕ‬
–
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺋﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺛﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻰ‬
Frequency
‫ﺍﻷﻛﺳﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬
Click in the cell where you want the percentage to be displayed.
Click the fx to open up the Functions box.
Select ALL from the SELECT a CATEGORY Dropdown Menu
Select SUM from the SELECT a FUNCTION list
(list is in alphabetical order)
Select the cells you want to include in the sum calculation.
Click OK.
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺋﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬
percentage
‫ﺍﻷﻛﺳﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬
•
Click in the cell where you want the percentage to be displayed.
•
Click the (=frequency cell/N*100).
•
‫ﻋﻼﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺿﻊ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﺭﻏﺏ‬ ‫ﻛﻧﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺫﺍ‬
$
‫ﻓﻰ‬
N Cell
.
‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬
:
B$3
$
•
‫ﻛﺎﻷﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‬
:
Q1
N 21
‫ﺫﻫﺑﺕ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺍﻁﻼﻗ‬ ‫ﺍﺫﻫﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺎﺿﻰ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺫﻫﺑﺕ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺍﺳﺎﺳ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﻳﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬
Frequency 2 9 5 5
Percentage 9.5 42.9 23.8 23.8
‫ﻛﺎﻷﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺳﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺿﻑ‬
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
‫ﺫﻫﺑﺕ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺍﻁﻼﻗ‬ ‫ﺍﺫﻫﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺎﺿﻰ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺫﻫﺑﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﻳﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬
ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺍﺳﺎﺳ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ‬
Frequency
Percentage
‫ﻫﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻁﺑﻳﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﻅﺭﺍ‬
‫ﻹﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﺎﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﻏﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺳﺗﺟﺩﻩ‬ ،‫ﺍﻷﺳﺗﺑﻳﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻳﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺣﺭﺍﻑ‬
.
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺋﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻧﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺩﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻷﻧﺳﺏ‬
.
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺎﺕ‬
–
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ‬ ‫ﺇﻳﺟﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺛﻠﺔ‬
•
‫ﺍﻟﺑﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻏﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻁﻭﻕ‬
:
‫ﻣﺳﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺗﻘﺩﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻅﻣﺗﻙ‬
‫ﺇ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺳﻳﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻳﻧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺎﺩﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺋﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺻﻌﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﺣﺎﻓﻅﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺣﺩﻯ‬
35
‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬
.
‫ﻭﺗﺭﻏﺏ‬
‫ﻭﺑﻳﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﺳﻳﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﻳﺎﻛﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻛﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﺛﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻅﻣﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺭﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺍﺭﺩﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻅﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﺇﺳﺗﻁﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﻯ‬
.
•
‫ﺍﻟﺑﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺿﻳﺔ‬
H1
:
‫ﺗﻁﺑﻳﻕ‬
‫ﻣﻛﻳﻧﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺳﻳﺅﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﻳﺎﻛﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺎﺩﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺋﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻣﻝ‬
35
‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬
.
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺎﺕ‬
–
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ‬ ‫ﺇﻳﺟﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺛﻠﺔ‬
•
‫ﺍﻟﺑﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻬﺟﻳﺔ‬
:

‫ﻗﺑﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‬
/
‫ﺇﻳﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺻﻣﻳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺩﻯ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻣﻝ‬
.

‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺫ‬
15
‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﻣﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺩﺩﻫﻡ‬
31
‫ﻟﻘﻳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺑﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺇﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺟﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺃﺭﻣﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺇ‬
‫ﻳﺭﺍﺩﻫﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﻰ‬
)
‫ﺍﻟﺷﻬﺭﻯ‬
(
‫ﻓﻘﻁ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻳﻑ‬
.

‫ﻟﻣﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺭﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﺗﻧﻔﻳﺫ‬
18
‫ﻣﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﺩﺭﻳﺑﻰ‬ ‫ﻳﻭﻡ‬
6
‫ﺃﺳﺎﺑﻳﻊ‬
‫ﺑﻣﻌﺩﻝ‬
3
‫ﻳﻭﻡ‬
/
‫ﺃﺳﺑﻭﻉ‬
.

‫ﺇ‬
‫ﺟﺭﺍء‬
‫ﺇ‬
‫ﺇﻳﺭﺍﺩﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﻰ‬
)
‫ﺍﻟﺷﻬﺭﻯ‬
(
ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺗﺑﻌ‬
‫ﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺇﻳﺭﺍﺩﻳﺔ‬
ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺳﻠﻔ‬ ‫ﻣﺣﺩﺩﻩ‬
.
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺎﺕ‬
–
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻳﺎﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﻧﺣﺭﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ‬ ‫ﺇﻳﺟﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺛﻠﺔ‬
•
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻳﺎﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﻧﺣﺭﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺎﺫﺍ‬
:
.1
‫ﻧﺭﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻧﻣﻭﺫﺟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﺍء‬ ‫ﺍﻭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻷﺩﺍء‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ‬
‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ‬
.
.2
‫ﻓﺭﺿﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻘﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻘﻕ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﻛﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻧﺭﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻣﺎ‬
Hypothesis
.
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬
Mean
,
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻳﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺣﺭﺍﻑ‬
SD
‫ﺍﻷﻛﺳﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬
PRT POT
Monthly Base Monthly Base
W1 355 199
W2 302 351
W3 627 621
W4 108 428
W5 214 91
W6 97 192
W7 75 176
W8 69 68
W9 309 200
W10 110 368
W11 73 94
W12 69 241
W13 368 607
W14 502 307
W15 188 207
PRT POT
Monthly Base Monthly Base
W1 355 199
W2 302 351
W3 627 621
W4 108 428
W5 214 91
W6 97 192
W7 75 176
W8 69 68
W9 309 200
W10 110 368
W11 73 94
W12 69 241
W13 368 607
W14 502 307
W15 188 207
Mean 231.1 276.7
STD 22.8
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬
Mean
,
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻳﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺣﺭﺍﻑ‬
SD
‫ﺍﻷﻛﺳﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬
‫ﺇﻳﺟﺎﺑﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺽ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬
Mean
,
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻳﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺣﺭﺍﻑ‬
SD
‫ﺍﻷﻛﺳﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬
Egypt Civil Society Support Project (ECSS)
‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﻡ‬
‫ﺁﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺿﺭﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻛﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﺎﺗﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺋﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﺿﻣﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺍﻵﺭﺍء‬
‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻛﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬
‫ﺍﻟﺟﻠﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻧﺎﺻﺭ‬
•
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﻛﻣﺎﻝ‬
•
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻁ‬
Mean
•
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ‬
Median
•
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻭﺍﻝ‬
Mode
•
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺑﺎﻳﻥ‬
Variance
3
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻁ‬
)
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬
(
Mean
4
•
‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﻔﺭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻁﻳﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ‬
،
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ‬ ِ‫ﻣﺳﺎﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺩﻳﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻔﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻟﻛﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻳﺔ‬
.
•
‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﻣﻘﺳﻭﻣ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﻫﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺑﺄﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﻳﺿﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻌﺭﻑ‬
‫ﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ‬
.
•
‫ﻳﻌﺗﺑﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﻛﺛﺭ‬
‫ﺇ‬
‫ﻧﺗﺷﺎﺭﺍ‬
‫ﻭﺷﻳﻭﻋﺎ‬
‫ﺑ�ﻳﻥ‬
‫ﻟﺳ�ﻬﻭﻟﺗﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑ�ﺎﺣﺛﻳﻥ‬
‫ﺣﻳﺎﺗﻧ�ﺎ‬ ‫ﻓ�ﻲ‬ ‫ﻛﺑ�ﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻣﻳ�ﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻳ�ﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﺿ�ﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗ�ﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﺎﺋﺩﺗﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻣﻳ�ﺔ‬
.
‫ﻳﺗﺣ�ﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﻣ�ﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻛﺛﻳ�ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﻭﻣﺗﻭﺳ��ﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌ��ﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺷ��ﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﻓ��ﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳ��ﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻭﺳ��ﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋ��ﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻓ��ﺭﺍﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻋﻣﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻭ‬
‫ﺇ‬
‫ﺧﺗﻼﻓﺎﺗﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺟﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬
،‫ﺟﻳﻝ‬
‫ﺑﻠﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﻠﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻥ‬
‫ﺁﺧﺭ‬
،
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺧﻝ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺷﻬﺭﻱ‬
،‫ﻭﺍﻟﺳﻧﻭﻱ‬
‫ﺑﺣﻳﺎﺗﻧ�ﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﻳ�ﺏ‬ ‫ﻣ�ﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺗﺻﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻳﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻣﻳﺔ‬
.
•
‫ﻣﺗﻁﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﻭﺟﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﺄﺛﺭ‬
.
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ‬
Median
5
•
‫ﻳﻣﺛﻝ‬
‫ﺗﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﻫﺩﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺗﺳﺎﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺗﺳﺑﻘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬
‫ﺗﻠﻳﻬﺎ‬
.
•
‫ﻫ‬
‫ﻭ‬
‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻧﺻﻑ‬ ‫ﻳﺳﺑﻘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﺣﻳﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻭﺯﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﺗﺻﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻣﺎﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻘﻁﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻧﺻﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺗﻠﻭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻵﺧﺭ‬
،
‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺳﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻣﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺗﻳﻥ‬
‫ﻣﺗﺳﺎﻭﻳﺗﻳﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬
ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺗﻧﺎﺯﻟﻳ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺗﺻﺎﻋﺩﻳ‬ ‫ﺗﺭﺗﻳﺑﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺩ‬
.
•
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﺄﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻛﺱ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬
.
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻭﺍﻝ‬
Mode
6
•
‫ﺃﻭ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺷﻳﻭﻋ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻛﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻭﺍﻝ‬
ً‫ﺍ‬‫ﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ‬
.
•
‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺣﺩ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺇ‬
‫ﻛﻣﻧﻭﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭﻩ‬
،
‫ﺑﻧﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻣﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ‬
ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﻣﻌ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭﻫﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬
‫ﻛﻣﻧﻭﺍﻝ‬
،
‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺧﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺣﺩﻫﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺯﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻗﻳﻣﺗﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻭﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻛﺑﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻣﻧﻭﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﻳﻭﺟﺩ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻻﺷﻲء‬
.
•
‫ﻣﻛﺭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻫﻧﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﻳﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻣﻪ‬ ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﻻ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻳﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻧﺣﺭﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺑﺎﻳﻥ‬
7
‫ﺍﻟﺗﺑﺎﻳﻥ‬
:
‫ﻛﻣﻘﻳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻓﻳﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻔﻛﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺷﺗﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﺣﺩ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺎﻓﺔ‬
.
‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺑﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺎﺱ‬
.
‫ﻭﻳﻣﺛﻝ‬
‫ﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺑﺎﻳﻥ‬
‫ﻣﺭﺑﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺎﺕ‬
.
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺗﺑﺎﻳﻥ‬
‫ﺃﻛﺑﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺋﻣﺎ‬
،‫ﻣﻥ‬
‫ﻳﺳﺎﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺻﻔﺭ‬
.
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻳﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺣﺭﺍﻑ‬
:
‫ﻣﻘﻳﺎﺱ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺗﺑﺎﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺟﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺑﻳﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺫﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﺷﺗﺕ‬ ‫ﺁﺧﺭ‬
.
‫ﻭﻳﻔﺿﻝ‬
‫ﺇﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻣﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻟﻭﺣﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺎﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺣﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻵﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺑﺎﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﺩﻻ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺎﻓﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻳﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻔﻛﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﻲ‬
.
‫ﻭﺍﻻﻧﺣﺭﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺃﻛﺑﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺋﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻳﺎﺭﻱ‬
،‫ﻣﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺻﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﻳﺳﺎﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬
.
‫ﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺗﻛﻡ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻛﻡ‬ ‫ﺷﻛﺭﺍ‬
8
Egypt Civil Society Support Project (ECSS)
‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﻡ‬
‫ﺁﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺿﺭﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻛﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﺎﺗﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺋﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﺿﻣﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺭﺍء‬
‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻛﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺳﺗﺩﻻﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬
‫ﺍﻹﺳﺗﺩﻻﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬
•
‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺩﻻﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺩﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻧﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬
‫ﻛﻛﻝ‬
،
‫ﺳﺣﺑﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﻓﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬
‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬
،‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬
‫ﺇﺫ‬
‫ﺃ‬
‫ﻥ‬
‫ﺇ‬
‫ﻫﺗﻣﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧﺩﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺑﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻛﻛﻝ‬
.
•
‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺇ‬
‫ﻫﺗﻣﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺩﻹﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬
‫ﻭﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬
Hypotheses Testing
‫ﻟﻠﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬
.
3
‫ﺍﻹﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬
Correlation
4
•
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬
:
‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﻘﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺻﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺃﺑﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬
.
‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬
‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻛﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻛﻼﻫﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﻳﻥ‬
)
،‫ﺍﻟﺩﺧﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ‬
. (
‫ﺍﺳﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻛﻼﻫﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬
)
‫ﺃﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﺧﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺻﺎﺑﺔ‬ ،‫ﻻ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺳﺭﻁﺎﻥ‬
.(
‫ﺭﺗﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻛﻼﻫﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬
.
‫ﻭﺍﻵﺧﺭ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺣﺩ‬ ‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬
‫ﺍﺳﻣﻲ‬
‫ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺭﺗﺑﻲ‬
.
‫ﺭﺗﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻵﺧﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺣﺩ‬ ‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬
.
5
•
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻭﺩﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻭﺟﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻳﻬﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻱ‬
.
‫ﻭﺟﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬
،‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬
‫ﻫﻝ‬
‫ﻫﻰ‬
‫ﺿﻌﻳﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻡ‬ ‫ﻗﻭﻳﺔ‬
.
‫ﻁﺭﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺑﻳﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ‬
)
‫ﻣﻭﺟﺑﺔ‬
(
‫ﻋﻛﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻡ‬
)
‫ﺳﺎﻟﺑﺔ‬
.(
‫ﺃﻣﺛﻠﺔ‬
:
‫ﺳﺑﻳﺭﻣﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ،‫ﺑﻳﺭﺳﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬
.
،‫ﻛﻧﺩﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬
‫ﺛﻳﺗﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ،‫ﻛﺭﻳﻣﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬
.
‫ﺃﺧﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬
:
‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﻳﻘﻳﺱ‬
‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺣﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺭﻯ‬
.
‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬
:
‫ﺍﻟﺟﺯﺋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬
.
‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬
Correlation
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻼﺋﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ‬
6
•
‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﻌﻳﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻧﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﺭﻑ‬
:
‫ﻛﻣﻲ‬
-
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ‫ـــــــــــــــــ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﻲ‬
‫ﺇ‬
‫ﺑﻳﺭﺳﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺭﺗﺑﻲ‬
-
‫ﺟﺎﻣﺎ‬ ،‫ﻛﻧﺩﺍﻝ‬ ،‫ﺳﺑﻳﺭﻣﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ‫ـــــــــــــــ‬ ‫ﺭﺗﺑﻲ‬
‫ﻛﻣﻲ‬
-
‫ﺍﻹ‬ ،‫ﺳﺑﻳﺭﻣﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ‫ــــــــــــــــ‬ ‫ﺭﺗﺑﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺛﻧﺎﺋﻲ‬ ‫ﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺭﺗﺑﻲ‬
-
‫ﺛﻳﻧﺎ‬ ،‫ﻟﻠﺭﺗﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺛﻧﺎﺋﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ‫ــــــــــــــ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﻣﻲ‬
‫ﺍﺳﻣﻲ‬
-
‫ﻓﺎﻱ‬ ،‫ﺗﺷﻳﺭﻭ‬،‫ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬ ،‫ﻛﺭﺍﻣﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ‫ــــــــــــ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﻣﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎﺟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺣﺻﺎﺋﺎﺕ‬
Inferential Statistics
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬
Correlation Coefficient
•
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻧﺻﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻧﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻛﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻳﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬
•
‫ﺑـــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻣﺛﻝ‬
•
)
‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﻳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻣﺎ‬
-1
‫ﺍﻭ‬
+1
‫ﻗﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻛﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﻭﻥ‬
(
•
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﻭﺍﻉ‬
•
‫ﺍﻳﺟﺎﺑﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬
•
‫ﺳﻠﺑﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬
•
‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻻﻳﻭﺟﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬
Correlation Coefficient
‫ﻋﻣﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬
:
‫ﻭﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺳﻳﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻠﻳﻣﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﺭﻏﺏ‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻌﻳﺗﻙ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻧﺗﺧﺎﺑﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺗﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺭﺍﺕ‬
2011
.
‫ﺗﺷﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬
46
‫ﻳﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻠﻳﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻳﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻣﺛﻝ‬ ، ‫ﺳﻳﺩﺓ‬
:
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻠﻳﻣﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ‬
‫ﻣﺗﻌﻠﻡ‬ ‫ﻏﻳﺭ‬
‫ﺍﺑﺗﺩﺍﺋﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻋﺩﺍﺩﻯ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﻭﻯ‬
‫ﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺑﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺩﺑﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺑﻛﺎﻟﻭﺭﻳﻭﺱ‬
‫ﻣﺎﺟﻳﺳﺗﻳﺭ‬
‫ﺩﻛﺗﻭﺭﺍﻩ‬
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬
Correlation Coefficient
‫ﻋﻣﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬
:
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺗﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺳﻳﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻠﻳﻣﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﺭﻏﺏ‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻌﻳﺗﻙ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻧﺗﺧﺎﺑﻳﺔ‬
2011
.
‫ﺗﺷﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬
46
‫ﻳﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻠﻳﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻳﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻣﺛﻝ‬ ، ‫ﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬
:
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬
Correlation Coefficient
Raw Data
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻠﻳﻣﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬
1
2
2
‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬
2
2
2
‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬
3
2
0
‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬
4
5
3
‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬
5
4
2
‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬
6
7
3
‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬
7
1
2
‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬
8
0
1
‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬
9
4
2
‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬
10
3
3
‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬
11
1
3
‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬
12
6
4
‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬
13
6
4
‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬
14
8
4
‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬
15
3
2
‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬
16
2
1
‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬
17
3
2
‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬
18
1
3
‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬
19
5
3
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬
Correlation Coefficient
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻭﺓ‬
:
‫ﺍﻳﺟﺎﺑﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬
0.612294659
‫ﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Axis
Title
Axis Title
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬
Linear (‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫)ﻋﺩﺩ‬
Awareness _Data Analysis methods work shop.pdf

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Awareness _Data Analysis methods work shop.pdf

  • 1. Egypt Civil Society Support Project (ECSS) ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺋﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﺿﻣﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﻭﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﺎﺗﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻛﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺁﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺿﺭﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻛﺱ‬
  • 3. ‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺭﻳﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺭﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﺑﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ‬ : • ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻘﺩﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺷﺭﺡ‬ • ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﻠﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺗﻁﺑﻳﻕ‬ • ‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﻠﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﺗﻁﺑﻳﻕ‬ » ‫ﺍﻛﺳﻳﻝ‬ « 3
  • 5. ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺷﻐﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﺅﺷﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﺻﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺻﻣﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺩﺧﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬
  • 6. ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺻﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺷﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﺑﺭﺍﺯﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻧﻅﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﺭﺗﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﺋﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﺟﺎﺑﺔ‬ . 6
  • 7. ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺽ‬ • ‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﺑﺏ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺷﺭﺡ‬ • ‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﻳﺟﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻷﺳﺋﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﺑﺔ‬ • ‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺑﺷﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻭﻝ‬ • ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻳﻁ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻭﺍﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺭﺑﻁﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺑﺣﺙ‬
  • 8. ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺧﻁﻭﺍﺕ‬ • ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺩﺧﺎﻝ‬ Data entry • ‫ﺗﺷﻐﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ Data processing • ‫ﻣﻔﻳﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺣﻭﻳﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ Converting data into useful information • ‫ﻣﺣﺩﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺳﻳﺭ‬ Interpreting information into specific findings 8
  • 9. ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺩﺧﺎﻝ‬ Data entry ‫ﺑﻌﺩ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺗﻬﺎء‬ ‫ﻳﻘﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺑﺈﺩﺧﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﺗ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺑﻕ‬ ‫ﺭﻣﺯ‬ ‫ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺎﻫﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﺍﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ‬ . ‫ﻭﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺃ‬ ‫ﺷﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﺍﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺎﻫﺯﺓ‬ : ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﺣﺯﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺣﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ SPSS ‫ﻭ‬ Excel ‫ﻭﻳﺟﺏ‬ ‫ﻏﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺧﻁﺄ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻬﻭ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺭﺍﻋﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣ‬ ‫ﺗ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻌﻣﺩ‬ ‫ﺗ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﻗﺑﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻌﻣﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﺎﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ‬ . 9
  • 10. ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺷﻐﻳﻝ‬ Data processing ‫ﻳﻘﺻﺩ‬ ‫ﺑﺗﺷﻐﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺣﺻﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﺻﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺣﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﻧﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻧﺩ‬ ‫ﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ . ‫ﻭﺗﻬﺩﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻳﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻘﻳﻕ‬ : · ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺯﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺧﺎﺿﻌ‬ ‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ . · ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺑﻳﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺳﻳﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺇﺟﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﻋﺎﻣ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﻣﻠﺧﺻ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺻﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺻﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺋﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ‬ . 10
  • 11. ‫ﻣﻔﻳﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺣﻭﻳﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ Converting data into useful information ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﻹ‬ ‫ﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺋﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﺟﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺑﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﺩﺩﺓ‬ . ‫ﻭﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺧﻁﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻳﺷﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺟﻣﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺷﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻧﻔﻳﺫﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺧﻁﻳﻁﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻔﺿﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﻁﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﻣﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺗﻧﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻳﺿﻳﻔﻪ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺎ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻛﻠﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ . 11
  • 12. ‫ﻣﺣﺩﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺳﻳﺭ‬ Interpreting information into specific findings • ‫ﺗﺗﻣﺛﻝ‬ ‫ﺧﻁﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺳﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺑﻁ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﻘﺎﺋﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻘﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻏﺭﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﺅﺷﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺟﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺟﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ . ‫ﻭﻳﺟﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﻼﺣﻅ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﺟﻣﻳﻌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺗﺣﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺟﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺋﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻁﺭﻭﺣﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺟﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻧﺟﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺣﻘﻘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻅﻣﺔ‬ ، ‫ﻭﻛﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺧﻔﺎﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺷﻝ‬ . 12
  • 13. ‫ﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺗﻛﻡ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻛﻡ‬ ‫ﺷﻛﺭﺍ‬ 13
  • 14. Egypt Civil Society Support Project (ECSS) ‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﻡ‬ ‫ﺁﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺿﺭﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻛﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﺎﺗﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺋﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﺿﻣﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻛﺎﻟﺔ‬
  • 16. ‫ﺍﻟﺟﻠﺳﺔ؟‬ ‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺳﻳﺗﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﻠﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ‬ : • ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻅﺎﺋﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﺭﻑ‬ • ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﺭﻑ‬
  • 17. ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻅﺎﺋﻑ‬ • ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬ • ‫ﺗﻔﺳﻳﺭ‬ • ‫ﺗﻘﻳﻳﻡ‬ • ‫ﺷﺭﺡ‬ • ‫ﻣﻧﺎﻗﺷﺔ‬ • ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬
  • 18. ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻅﺎﺋﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ - ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﺧﺻﺎﺋﺻﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ - ‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬ : ‫ﺷﺭﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻬﺟﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻠﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻥ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﻬﺎﺟﺭﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﺻﺎﺋﺹ‬ 17 % ‫ﺃﻗﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ 20 ‫ﺳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﺭ‬ 39 % 20 – 30 ‫ﺳﻧﺔ‬ 36 % 30 – 40 ‫ﺳﻧﺔ‬ 8 % 40 ‫ﻓﺄﻛﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﺳﻧﺔ‬ 31 % ‫ﻣﺗﻌﻠﻡ‬ ‫ﻏﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻠﻳﻡ‬ 36 % ‫ﺍﺑﺗﺩﺍﺋﻲ‬ / ‫ﺍﻋﺩﺍﺩﻱ‬ 29 % ‫ﺷﻬﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁﺔ‬ 4 % ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺷﻬﺎﺩﺓ‬ 1350 ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬
  • 19. ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻅﺎﺋﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ - ‫ﺗﻔﺳﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﻝ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﺑﺏ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻘﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻔﺫﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻧﺷﻁﺔ‬ . ‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬ : ‫ﺭﻓﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺧﺭﻳﺟﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺭﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺳﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺎﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻭﻅﻳﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻬﺎﺭﺍﺗﻬﻡ‬ .
  • 20. ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻅﺎﺋﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬ - ‫ﺗﻘﻳﻳﻡ‬ • ‫ﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺣﻘﻘﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻳﻳﻡ‬ • ‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺭﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻘﻕ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻘﻕ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻬﺩﻑ‬ 90 % 92 % ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻘﻕ‬ 135 115 ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺭﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺎﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻧﻅﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﻧﻅﻣﺔ‬
  • 21. ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻅﺎﺋﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬ - ‫ﺷﺭﺡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﻧﻣﺎﻁ‬ ،‫ﻭﺍﻟﺛﻘﺎﻓﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﺿﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻟﻭﺻﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻳﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻏﺎﻟﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‬ . ،‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﻳﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﺩﺍﺧﻝ‬ ‫ﻭﻛﻳﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺿﻊ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﻛﻳﺯ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺛﻘﺎﻓﻳﺔ‬ . ‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬ : ‫ﻭﺛﻘﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻠﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﻣﺳﺗﻭﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻳﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺑﻛﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻭﺍﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺗﺷﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ .
  • 22. ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻅﺎﺋﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬ - ‫ﻣﻧﺎﻗﺷﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﺿﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻭﺻﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺗﺭﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺩﺍﺋﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﻧﺎﻗﺷﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻭﻳﺎﺕ‬ . ‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻌﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺗﻳﺎﺟﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺩﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺗﻁﺑﻳﻕ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﺎﻗﺷﺗﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ،‫ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻳﺎﺟﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺋﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺻﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻅﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻬﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﺎﻗﺷﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻭﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺭﺗﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﺗﻣﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﺟﺗﻣﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‬ .
  • 23. ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻅﺎﺋﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬ - ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻭﻗﻳﺕ‬ ‫ﻧﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺗﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺑﻕ‬ ‫ﺑﻭﺿﻊ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺿﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺿﻊ‬ • 55 % • 35 % ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺧﻁ‬ • 20 % • 10 % ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻣﺅﺷﺭﺍﺕ‬ • ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺯﺍﺭﻋﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧﺩﻣﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﻳﻛﻧﺔ‬ • ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺯﺍﺭﻋﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧﺩﻣﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺑﻳﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺁﻣﻧﺔ‬
  • 24. ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﻭﺍﻉ‬ • ‫ﺍﻟﻛﻳﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻌﺗﻣﺩ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻋﻳﺔ‬ ( ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﺗﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺹ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﻝ‬ ‫ﻭﺷﻭﺍﻫﺩ‬ ‫ﺑﺄﺩﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺩﻋﻭﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺻﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺓ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻟﺔ‬ ( ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺻﻭﺭ‬ . • ‫ﺍﻟﻛﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ : ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺟﻣﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﻟﻭﻟﺗﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺗﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺛﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻥ‬ ،‫ﺟﺩﺍﻭﻝ‬ . ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻌﺗﺑﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻫﻧﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻛﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻌﻠﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ .
  • 25. ‫ﺣﺳﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻛﻡ‬ ‫ﺷﻛﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺗﻛﻡ‬
  • 26. Egypt Civil Society Support Project (ECSS) ‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﻡ‬ ‫ﺁﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺿﺭﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻛﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﺎﺗﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺋﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﺿﻣﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻛﺎﻟﺔ‬
  • 28. ‫ﺍﻟﺟﻠﺳﺔ؟‬ ‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺳﻳﺗﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﻠﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ‬ : • ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻋﻳﺔ‬ (
  • 29. ‫ﺍﻟﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺩﺉ‬ • ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻼﺣﻅﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﺑﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺩﻭﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻣﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺷﺎﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﺟﻪ‬ ‫ﻳﺣﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﺩﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﻭﺡ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻣﻳﺩﺍﻧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻳﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺗﺟﺎﻫﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺟﻬﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻳﺣﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﺎ‬ ،‫ﻋﺩﻳﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ . ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﻼﺋﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺑﺩﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻛﺭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺍﺿﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺻﻧﻳﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺿﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻘﻳﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﺋﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺿﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺧﺗﻳﺭﺕ‬ُ‫ﺃ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺿﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺟﺩﻳﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻝ‬ .
  • 30. ‫ﺍﻟﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺩﺉ‬ • ‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺣﻳﺎﻧﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺿﺔ‬ ‫ﱢﻣﻳﻥ‬‫ﻳ‬‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﺳﺭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎﺟﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﺧﻼﺹ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺧﺎﻁﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻼﺣﻅﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﺑﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺳﺟﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﻭﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺳﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻧﺩ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻣﻳﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺻﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﺿﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﺋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻳﺩﺍﻧﻳﺔ‬ . ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﺟﻧﺑﻭﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺿﻭء‬ ‫ﻁ‬ّ‫ﻠ‬‫ﺳ‬ُ‫ﺗ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻠﺧﺻﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﻛﺗﺎﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﻛﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﻧﺎﺻﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﺻﺎﺋﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻳﻳﻣﻪ‬ .
  • 31. ‫ﻟﻠﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﻳﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺧﻁﻭﺍﺕ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﺗﺎﺑﺔ‬ ( • ‫ﻣﺗﻌﻣﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻛﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﺍءﺓ‬ / ‫ﺑﺅﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺎﺵ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ‬ / ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﺗﻣﻌﻳﺔ‬ • ‫ﺍﻷﺷﺧﺎﺹ‬ ‫ﻋﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﺑﺭ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻌﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺿﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬ • ‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻅﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺟﺯﺍء‬ ‫ﺻﻳﺎﻏﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺩﺓ‬ • ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺧﺗﻼﻓﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﺭﺍﺑﻁ‬ ‫ﺑﺷﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺿﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﺑﻧﺎء‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﻛﻳﺯ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻊ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻧﻅﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻬﺎﺕ‬ .
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35. ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺟﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻗﺻﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺷﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻫﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻛﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺟﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻗﺻﺹ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺳﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻛﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺷﺎﺭﻛﻭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺋﻠﺗﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺟﺗﻣﻌﺎﺗﻬﻡ‬ . ‫ﺑﺈﺧﺗﺻﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻛﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺃﺣﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺇﻳﺟﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ .
  • 36. ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺟﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻗﺻﺹ‬ ) ‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺟﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻣﻁﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻁﺎﺭ‬ • ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺿﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺧﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﺑﻝ‬ : ‫ﻭﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻘﺩﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﺻﻣﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺎﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺷﺭﺡ‬ ‫ﻓﻳﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺧﻝ‬ • ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺗﻳﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺃﻅﻬﺭ‬ / ‫ﻟﻠﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ • ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻋﻁﺎء‬ ‫ﻓﻛﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺿﻣﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ‬ / ‫ﻟﺗﺣﺳﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺿﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺍﺭﻳﺦ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻛﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻧﻔﻳﺫ‬ ‫ﻭﺁﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺷﺭﻛﺎء‬ ‫ﻭﺟﺩﻭﺍ‬ . • ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‬ : ‫ﺍﻹﺳﺗﻔﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻅﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺩﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺧﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﺧﺭﺟﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ‬ . ‫ﻻﺑﺩ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺻﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺩﻋﻳﻣﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﻘﺎﺋﻕ‬ ‫ﺳﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺭﺳﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ،‫ﺃﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﻭﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺗﻁﻔﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺫﻛﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻻﺿﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﻳﻥ‬ • ‫ﺍﻷﺛﺭ‬ : ‫ﺍﻷﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺧﺗﺻﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻳﻭﺿﺢ‬ ‫ﺗﻧﻔﻳﺫ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺎﺗﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺭﻭﻉ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ .
  • 37. ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺭﻳﻑ‬ : ‫ﻭﻣﻧﺳﻕ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻅﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺿﻭﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺻﻑ‬ ‫ﺇﻋﻁﺎء‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻬﺟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﻭﺿﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺳﺟﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺛﺎﺋﻕ‬ ،‫ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺳﺎﺋﻝ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺿﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﺻﻠﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ : ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﺟﺎﺑﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺭﻏﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻧﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻣﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺿﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻷﺳﺋﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻧﻑ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﻝ‬ : • ‫ﻟﻠﻣﻭﺿﻭﻉ؟‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻫﺗﻣﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺟﺫﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﺑﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺻﺣﻳﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ • ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣﻭﺿﻭﻉ؟‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻫﺗﻣﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻳﻘﻝ‬ ‫ﺑﺩﺃ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻰ‬ • ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻣﻭﺿﻭﻉ؟‬ ‫ﺃﻛﺑﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻫﺗﻣﺎﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺻﺣﻳﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬
  • 38. ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ) ‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ‬ : ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﺣﺛﻪ‬ ‫ﻳﺭﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺿﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺣﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻳﺟﺏ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺭﻫﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺭﻳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﻝ‬ .... ‫ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺳﻳﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻳﻪ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺿﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺗﻧﺎﻭﻟﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ : ،‫ﺍﻷﺳﺑﻭﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺻﺣﻑ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺗﻠﻔﺎﺯ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺩﻳﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺧﺻﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻼﺕ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻼﺕ‬ ... ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻠﻔﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺻﺣﻑ‬ ‫ﻧﻁﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻳﺣﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻳﺿﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﻧﺑﻐﻲ‬ .. ‫ﺍﻟﺻﺣﻑ‬ ‫ﻫﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻳﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻠﻳﺔ‬ .
  • 39. ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ) ‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻣﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬ : ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﺑﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺯﻣﻧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺗﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻳﺟﺏ‬ ‫ﻧﻔﺳﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺣﺩﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﺑﺩء‬ ‫ﻗﺑﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺳﺎﺋﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺔ‬ . ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻅﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺗﻬﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻣﻧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺗﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻕ‬ ‫ﺇﺣﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﻝ‬ ‫ﺑﺩﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﻧﻘﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻧﺎﻳﺭ‬ 2011 ‫ﻭﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺛﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺑﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﺑﺕ‬ .. ‫ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺣﺩ‬ .. ‫ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻟﺙ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺛﻧﻳﻥ‬ .... ‫ﺣﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻛﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻫﺗﻣﺎﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻹﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻛﺎﻓﺋﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺑﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺃﻳﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻁﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺑﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺃﻳﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺧﺗﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﺗﺧﺗﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺻﺣﻑ‬
  • 40. ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ) ‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺯﺍﻳﺎ‬ : .1 ‫ﺃﺳﻠﻭﺑﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ‫ﻗﺑﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻁﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺻﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﺗﻁﺑﻳﻕ‬ ‫ﺳﻬﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺿﺢ‬ . .2 ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺑﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺭﺻﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺗﺑﻌﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺳﻬﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻳﻳﺢ‬ . .3 ‫ﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺻﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺄﺛﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺗﺑﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺣﻭﺛﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻌﻠﻳﺔ‬ . .4 ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺿﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻳﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﻭﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﻁﺑﻳﻘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﺟﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﻣﺭﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬ . .5 ‫ﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺫ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺻﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺷﺧﺻﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺟﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻳﺳﻣﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺩﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺳﻛﺭﻳﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺭﺟﺎﻝ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺎﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﺟﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﺑﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻛﺎﺕ‬ .
  • 41. ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ) ‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬ ( ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﻳﻭﺏ‬ : .1 ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺄﺧﻭﺫﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺄﺧﻭﺫﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻭﺳﺎﺋﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺫﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺳﺎﺋﻝ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺣﻘﻳﻘﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺛﺎﺋﻕ‬ ‫ﺟﻳﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺑﺻﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ‬ . .2 ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺻﻧﻳﻔﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﺛﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﺗﻔﺳﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﻣﺯ‬ ‫ﻗﻳﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﻣﻳﺯ‬ ‫ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺗﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻳﺅﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺧﺑﺭﺗﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﻣﺯ‬ ‫ﺑﺧﻠﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﻣﻳﺯ‬ ‫ﻓﺋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﻣﻳﺯ‬ ‫ﺻﺣﺔ‬ . .3 ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺑﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺗﻁﻠﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﺳﺋﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺟﺎﺑﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺻﻌﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ . ‫ﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻳﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻫﺯﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﺟﺎﺑﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻭﺟﺩ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺣﻳﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻛﺛﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺹ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ . .4 ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻧﻅﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﻭﺻﻔﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻛﺛﻳﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺗﻧﺗﻘﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺿﻣﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺗﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻅﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﻁﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺗﻘﺭ‬ .
  • 43. Egypt Civil Society Support Project (ECSS) ‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﻡ‬ ‫ﺁﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺿﺭﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻛﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﺎﺗﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺋﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﺿﻣﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻛﺎﻟﺔ‬
  • 44. ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
  • 45. ‫ﺍﻟﺟﻠﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻧﺎﺻﺭ‬ • ‫ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻳﻡ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ – ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺩﻻﻟﻲ‬ - ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬ .( • ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﻭﺍﻉ‬ • ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺻﻑ‬ . 3
  • 46. 4 ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﺑـ‬ ‫ﻳﻬﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻡ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ :  ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺳﺟﻳﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﻭﺍﻫﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﻣﺧﺗﻠﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺧﺎﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻊ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺑﻳﺎﻧﻳ‬ ‫ﺗﻣﺛﻳﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻅﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺟﺩﺍﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺻﻧﻳﻔﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺻﻭﺭﺓ‬ .  ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺗﺧﺎﺫ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﺧﻼﺹ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬ .  ‫ﺑﻳﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺑﺑﻌﺿﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻅﻭﺍﻫﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬ . ‫ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻳﻡ‬ :
  • 47. ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺳﺎﻡ‬ 5 ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺳﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺩﻻﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺗﺧﺎﺫ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧﻼﺹ‬ ‫ﻳﻬﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺑﻭﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﺑﺟﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻳﻬﺗﻡ‬
  • 48. ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ • ‫ﺻﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻧﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﺑﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻘﺩﻳﻣﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺎﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻠﺧﻳﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟ‬ ‫ﻣﻣﻛﻧ‬ ‫ﻪ‬ . • ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻳﺳﺗﻁﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺷﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺎﻧﺏ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺗﺧﺩﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻠﺧﻳﺻﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻧﻅﻳﻣﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺻﻧﻳﻔﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻧﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﻁﺑﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﻛﺯﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺯﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻑ‬ ‫ﺣﺩ‬ ‫ﺗﺗﻌﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻧﺣﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺷﺗﺕ‬ ... ‫ﺍﻟﺦ‬ • ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻅﻳﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺧﺭﻭﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺎﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻭﺻﻳﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻌـﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺅﺷﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻬﺎ‬ . 6
  • 49. ‫ﺍﻹﺳﺗﺩﻻﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ • ‫ﺗﻘﺩﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻧﺎ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﺳﺗﺩﻻﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻛﻛﻝ‬ ، ‫ﺳﺣﺑﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﻓﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﺫ‬ ‫ﺃ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﻫﺗﻣﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﺑ‬ ‫ﺎﻟﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧﺩﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺑ‬ ‫ﻛﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﺎﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ . • ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﻫﺗﻣﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﺑ‬ ‫ﺳﺗﺩﻹﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺈ‬ ‫ﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ Hypotheses Testing ‫ﻟﻠﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ . 7
  • 51. ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ .1 ‫ﺍﻹﺳﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ Nominal measures .2 ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺗﻳﺑﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ Ordinal measures .3 ‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺋﺎﺕ‬ Interval measures 9
  • 52. ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ) ‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬ ( .1 ‫ﺍﻹﺳﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ / ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻳﺔ‬ Nominal measures • ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻋﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻔﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺻﻧﻳﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻳﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﺈﻋﻁﺎﺋﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩﻳﺔ‬ . • ‫ﻭﺗﻣﻳﻳﺯﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺭﻳﻑ‬ ‫ﺳﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺩﻻﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻳﻣﺔ‬ . ‫ﻭﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺛﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ‫ﺳﻣﻳﺔ‬ : ‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺇﺫ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻳﻌﻁﻲ‬ ) 1 ( ‫ﻭﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﻧﺎﺙ‬ ) 2 ( ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺣﻭﺛﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﺻﻑ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺫﻛﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ) 1 ( ‫ﻣﺳﻠﻡ‬ ) 2 ( ‫ﻣﺳﻳﺣﻲ‬ ) 3 ( ‫ﻳﻬﻭﺩﻱ‬ – ‫ﺗﻌﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﻫﻧﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺗﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﺿﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻟﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻣﺔ‬ . 10
  • 53. ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ) ‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬ ( .2 ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺗﻳﺑﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ Ordinal measures • ‫ﻓﻘﻁ‬ ‫ﺗﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﺻﻧﻳﻑ‬ ‫ﺗﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺗﺭﺗﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﺃﻳﺿﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﻌﻛﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻧﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬ . ‫ﺑﻌﺑﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺷﻳﺎء‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺗﺭﺗﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﻳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻳﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺧﺻﺎﺋﺹ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻛﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ‬ . ‫ﻭﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺛﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺗﻳﺑﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺕ‬ : ‫ﻣﻣﺗﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻁﻼﺏ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ‬ – ‫ﺟﻳﺩ‬ ً‫ﺍ‬‫ﺟﺩ‬ - ‫ﺟﻳﺩ‬ – ‫ﻣﻘﺑﻭﻝ‬ – ‫ﺿﻌﻳﻑ‬ ، ‫ﺗﻭﺯﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻠﻳﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻛﺎﻥ‬ : ‫ﺃﻣﻲ‬ – ‫ﺍﺑﺗﺩﺍﺋﻲ‬ - ‫ﺛﺎﻧﻭﻱ‬ - ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻲ‬ – ‫ﻣﺎﺟﺳﺗﻳﺭ‬ – ‫ﺩﻛﺗﻭﺭﺍﻩ‬ 11
  • 54. ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ) ‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‬ ( .3 ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ Interval measures • ‫ﺃﺩﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺑﺩﺃ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﺗﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻘﺳﻳﻣﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺑﻭﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﻳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻳﺷﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺋﺎﺕ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻔﺋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻠﻙ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺣﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻬﻭ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺗﺏ‬ ، ‫ﻓﺋﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﻠﺧﻳﺹ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺓ‬ . ‫ﺃﻣﺛﻠﺔ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﺋﺎﺕ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺩﺧﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﺋﺎﺕ‬ 12
  • 55. ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺳﻳﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺽ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻠﺧﻳﺹ‬ 13 • ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻧﺎﺳﺏ‬ Ratio . • ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ Proportion . • ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺋﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ Percentage . • ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺩﻝ‬ Rate
  • 56. ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻧﺎﺳﺏ‬ Ratio 14 • ‫ﺭﻗﻣﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ . • ‫ﺻﺣﻳﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺣﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺎﺗﺞ‬ ‫ﻭﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻣﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬ : ‫ﻳﻭﺟﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻁﻕ‬ ‫ﺃﺣﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ 500 ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﺭﺱ‬ 5 ‫ﻣﺩﺍﺭﺱ‬ . ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺩﺍﺭﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﺭﺳﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ = 5/500 = 100 ‫ﻳﻭﺟﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﻥ‬ 100 ‫ﻣﺩﺭﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﺭﺱ‬ 1:100
  • 57. ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ Proportion 15 • ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺯء‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ . • ‫ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺭﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺯء‬ ‫ﻗﺳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ . ‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬ : ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺷﺑﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ‬ 30 ‫ﺍﺟﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ) 20 ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﻝ‬ ‫ﺳﻧﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻅﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﺩﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩ‬ 30 ‫ﻭﻳﺑﻠﻎ‬ ،‫ﺳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬ 100 .( ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺷﺑﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺑﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‬ 100/20 ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻗﺳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ 20 ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﻥ‬ ، 5/1 .
  • 58. ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺋﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ Percentage 16 • ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﻠﻪ‬ ) (Proportion ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺯء‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺎﺗﺞ‬ ‫ﺿﺭﺏ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ‬ 100 . ‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺳﺎﺑﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻧﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺷﺑﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ‬ 30 ‫ﺳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ) 20 ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﻝ‬ ‫ﺳﻧﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻅﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﺩﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩ‬ 30 ،‫ﺳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺑﻠﻎ‬ 100 .( ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺷﺑﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺑﻠﻎ‬ 100/20 x 100 = 20 %
  • 59. ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺩﻝ‬ Rate 17 ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺩﻝ‬ ‫ﺯﻣﻧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺭﺍﺣﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﺑﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ . ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺣﺳﺎﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻅﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺳﺑﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺷﻬﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺑﺷﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﺧﺩﻣﺎﺗﻬﺎ‬ – ‫ﺳﻧﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺭﺑﻊ‬ – ‫ﺳﻧﻭﻱ‬ . ‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬ : ‫ﻳﻧﺎﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺷﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺧﺩﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻅﻣﺔ‬ 2010 ‫ﺧﺩﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﻔﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻅﻣﺔ‬ 200 ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺑﻠﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻧﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻭﻧﻳﻭ‬ ‫ﺷﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬ ،‫ﺷﺧﺹ‬ 1100 ) ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻧﺷﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺷﻬﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺩﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺳﺏ‬ .( 1100 – 200 = 900 ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺎﺗﺞ‬ ‫ﻳﻘﺳﻡ‬ ، 6 ) ‫ﺍﻟﺷﻬﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ( ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺩﻝ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﻥ‬ 150 ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺷﻬﺭﻳ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩ‬ .
  • 60. ‫ﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺗﻛﻡ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻟﻛﻡ‬ ‫ﺷﻛﺭﺍ‬ 18
  • 61. Egypt Civil Society Support Project (ECSS) ‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﻡ‬ Analyzing Quantitative Data Using MS Excel 2010 ‫ﺍﻷﻛﺳﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺗﻁﺑﻳﻕ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻠﻳﻝ‬
  • 63. ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ Frequency ‫ﺍﻷﻛﺳﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ Click in the cell where you want the percentage to be displayed. Click the fx to open up the Functions box. Select ALL from the SELECT a CATEGORY Dropdown Menu Select SUM from the SELECT a FUNCTION list (list is in alphabetical order) Select the cells you want to include in the sum calculation. Click OK.
  • 64. ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺋﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬ percentage ‫ﺍﻷﻛﺳﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ • Click in the cell where you want the percentage to be displayed. • Click the (=frequency cell/N*100). • ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺿﻊ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﺭﻏﺏ‬ ‫ﻛﻧﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺫﺍ‬ $ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ N Cell . ‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬ : B$3 $ • ‫ﻛﺎﻷﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‬ : Q1 N 21 ‫ﺫﻫﺑﺕ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺍﻁﻼﻗ‬ ‫ﺍﺫﻫﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺎﺿﻰ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺫﻫﺑﺕ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺍﺳﺎﺳ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﻳﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬ Frequency 2 9 5 5 Percentage 9.5 42.9 23.8 23.8
  • 65. ‫ﻛﺎﻷﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﺳﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﺿﻑ‬ 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 ‫ﺫﻫﺑﺕ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺍﻁﻼﻗ‬ ‫ﺍﺫﻫﺏ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺎﺿﻰ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺫﻫﺑﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﻳﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺍﺳﺎﺳ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ‬ Frequency Percentage
  • 66. ‫ﻫﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻁﺑﻳﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﻅﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻹﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﺎﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﻏﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺳﺗﺟﺩﻩ‬ ،‫ﺍﻷﺳﺗﺑﻳﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻳﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺣﺭﺍﻑ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺋﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻧﺳﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺩﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺇﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻷﻧﺳﺏ‬ .
  • 67. ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺎﺕ‬ – ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ‬ ‫ﺇﻳﺟﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺛﻠﺔ‬ • ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻏﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻁﻭﻕ‬ : ‫ﻣﺳﺎﻋﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺗﻘﺩﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻅﻣﺗﻙ‬ ‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺳﻳﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻳﻧﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺩﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺋﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﺻﻌﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﺣﺎﻓﻅﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺣﺩﻯ‬ 35 ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ . ‫ﻭﺗﺭﻏﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﺑﻳﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﺳﻳﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﻳﺎﻛﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻛﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﺛﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻅﻣﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺭﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺍﺭﺩﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻅﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﺇﺳﺗﻁﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﻯ‬ . • ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻓﺭﺿﻳﺔ‬ H1 : ‫ﺗﻁﺑﻳﻕ‬ ‫ﻣﻛﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺳﻳﺅﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﻳﺎﻛﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺩﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺋﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻣﻝ‬ 35 ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ .
  • 68. ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺎﺕ‬ – ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ‬ ‫ﺇﻳﺟﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺛﻠﺔ‬ • ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻬﺟﻳﺔ‬ :  ‫ﻗﺑﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‬ / ‫ﺇﻳﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺻﻣﻳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﻣﻝ‬ .  ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺫ‬ 15 ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﻟﻎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻔﻳﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩﻫﻡ‬ 31 ‫ﻟﻘﻳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻟﻬﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺑﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺇﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺟﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺃﺭﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﻳﺭﺍﺩﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﻰ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﺷﻬﺭﻯ‬ ( ‫ﻓﻘﻁ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻳﻑ‬ .  ‫ﻟﻣﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺩﺭﻳﺏ‬ ‫ﺗﻧﻔﻳﺫ‬ 18 ‫ﻣﺩﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﺩﺭﻳﺑﻰ‬ ‫ﻳﻭﻡ‬ 6 ‫ﺃﺳﺎﺑﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﺑﻣﻌﺩﻝ‬ 3 ‫ﻳﻭﻡ‬ / ‫ﺃﺳﺑﻭﻉ‬ .  ‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﺟﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﺇﻳﺭﺍﺩﻫﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﻰ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﺷﻬﺭﻯ‬ ( ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺗﺑﻌ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻳﺭﺍﺩﻳﺔ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺳﻠﻔ‬ ‫ﻣﺣﺩﺩﻩ‬ .
  • 69. ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺎﺕ‬ – ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻳﺎﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﻧﺣﺭﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ‬ ‫ﺇﻳﺟﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺛﻠﺔ‬ • ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻳﺎﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﻧﺣﺭﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺎﺫﺍ‬ : .1 ‫ﻧﺭﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻣﻭﺫﺟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﺍء‬ ‫ﺍﻭ‬ ،‫ﺍﻷﺩﺍء‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ‬ . .2 ‫ﻓﺭﺿﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻘﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻘﻕ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﻛﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻧﺭﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ Hypothesis .
  • 70. ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬ Mean , ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻳﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺣﺭﺍﻑ‬ SD ‫ﺍﻷﻛﺳﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ PRT POT Monthly Base Monthly Base W1 355 199 W2 302 351 W3 627 621 W4 108 428 W5 214 91 W6 97 192 W7 75 176 W8 69 68 W9 309 200 W10 110 368 W11 73 94 W12 69 241 W13 368 607 W14 502 307 W15 188 207
  • 71. PRT POT Monthly Base Monthly Base W1 355 199 W2 302 351 W3 627 621 W4 108 428 W5 214 91 W6 97 192 W7 75 176 W8 69 68 W9 309 200 W10 110 368 W11 73 94 W12 69 241 W13 368 607 W14 502 307 W15 188 207 Mean 231.1 276.7 STD 22.8 ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬ Mean , ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻳﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺣﺭﺍﻑ‬ SD ‫ﺍﻷﻛﺳﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬
  • 72. ‫ﺇﻳﺟﺎﺑﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺽ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬ Mean , ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻳﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺣﺭﺍﻑ‬ SD ‫ﺍﻷﻛﺳﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬
  • 73. Egypt Civil Society Support Project (ECSS) ‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﻡ‬ ‫ﺁﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺿﺭﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻛﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﺎﺗﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺋﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﺿﻣﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺍﻵﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻛﺎﻟﺔ‬
  • 74. ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬
  • 75. ‫ﺍﻟﺟﻠﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻧﺎﺻﺭ‬ • ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﻛﻣﺎﻝ‬ • ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻁ‬ Mean • ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ‬ Median • ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻭﺍﻝ‬ Mode • ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺑﺎﻳﻥ‬ Variance 3
  • 76. ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻁ‬ ) ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬ ( Mean 4 • ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﻔﺭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻛﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻁﻳﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ‬ ِ‫ﻣﺳﺎﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺩﻳﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻔﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻟﻛﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻳﺔ‬ . • ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﻣﻘﺳﻭﻣ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﻫﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺑﺄﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﻳﺿﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻌﺭﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ‬ . • ‫ﻳﻌﺗﺑﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﻛﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﻧﺗﺷﺎﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺷﻳﻭﻋﺎ‬ ‫ﺑ�ﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﺳ�ﻬﻭﻟﺗﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑ�ﺎﺣﺛﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺎﺗﻧ�ﺎ‬ ‫ﻓ�ﻲ‬ ‫ﻛﺑ�ﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻣﻳ�ﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻳ�ﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﺿ�ﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗ�ﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﺎﺋﺩﺗﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻣﻳ�ﺔ‬ . ‫ﻳﺗﺣ�ﺩﺙ‬ ‫ﻣ�ﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﻛﺛﻳ�ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺗﻭﺳ��ﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌ��ﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺷ��ﻬﺭ‬ ‫ﻓ��ﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳ��ﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻭﺳ��ﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻋ��ﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻓ��ﺭﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻋﻣﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﺧﺗﻼﻓﺎﺗﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺟﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ،‫ﺟﻳﻝ‬ ‫ﺑﻠﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﻠﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺁﺧﺭ‬ ، ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺧﻝ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺷﻬﺭﻱ‬ ،‫ﻭﺍﻟﺳﻧﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺑﺣﻳﺎﺗﻧ�ﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﻳ�ﺏ‬ ‫ﻣ�ﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺗﺻﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻣﻳﺔ‬ . • ‫ﻣﺗﻁﺭﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﻭﺟﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﺄﺛﺭ‬ .
  • 77. ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ‬ Median 5 • ‫ﻳﻣﺛﻝ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﻫﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺳﺎﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺗﺳﺑﻘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻠﻳﻬﺎ‬ . • ‫ﻫ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻧﺻﻑ‬ ‫ﻳﺳﺑﻘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﺣﻳﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻭﺯﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﺗﺻﻑ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻣﺎﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻘﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺻﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺗﻠﻭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺧﺭ‬ ، ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺳﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺗﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﺳﺎﻭﻳﺗﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺗﻧﺎﺯﻟﻳ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺗﺻﺎﻋﺩﻳ‬ ‫ﺗﺭﺗﻳﺑﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺩ‬ . • ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﺄﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻛﺱ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ .
  • 78. ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻭﺍﻝ‬ Mode 6 • ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﺷﻳﻭﻋ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻛﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻭﺍﻝ‬ ً‫ﺍ‬‫ﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ‬ . • ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺣﺩ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﻧﻭﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭﻩ‬ ، ‫ﺑﻧﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻣﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ‬ ً‫ﺎ‬‫ﻣﻌ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭﻫﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﻧﻭﺍﻝ‬ ، ‫ﻳﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺧﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺣﺩﻫﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺯﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻣﺗﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻧﻭﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻛﺑﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻭﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﻳﻭﺟﺩ‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻻﺷﻲء‬ . • ‫ﻣﻛﺭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻗﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﻫﻧﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﻳﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻣﻪ‬ ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﻻ‬
  • 79. ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻳﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻧﺣﺭﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺑﺎﻳﻥ‬ 7 ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺑﺎﻳﻥ‬ : ‫ﻛﻣﻘﻳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻓﻳﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻔﻛﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺷﺗﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﺣﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺎﻓﺔ‬ . ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺑﻌﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺎﺱ‬ . ‫ﻭﻳﻣﺛﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺑﺎﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺭﺑﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺎﺕ‬ . ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺗﺑﺎﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻛﺑﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺋﻣﺎ‬ ،‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﺳﺎﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺻﻔﺭ‬ . ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻳﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺣﺭﺍﻑ‬ : ‫ﻣﻘﻳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﺑﺎﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺟﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺑﻳﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺫﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﺷﺗﺕ‬ ‫ﺁﺧﺭ‬ . ‫ﻭﻳﻔﺿﻝ‬ ‫ﺇﺳﺗﺧﺩﺍﻣﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻟﻭﺣﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺎﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺣﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻵﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺑﺎﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﺩﻻ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺎﻓﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻳﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻔﻛﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﻲ‬ . ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻧﺣﺭﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺃﻛﺑﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺋﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻳﺎﺭﻱ‬ ،‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺻﻔﺭ‬ ‫ﻳﺳﺎﻭﻱ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ .
  • 81. Egypt Civil Society Support Project (ECSS) ‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺻﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﻡ‬ ‫ﺁﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺿﺭﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻛﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﻻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻛﺎﺗﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺋﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻳﺗﺿﻣﻧﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺭﺍء‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﻛﻭﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗﻧﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺭﻳﻛﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﻛﺎﻟﺔ‬
  • 82. ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺩﻋﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺭﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺳﺗﺩﻻﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬
  • 83. ‫ﺍﻹﺳﺗﺩﻻﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ • ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺳﺗﺩﻻﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺩﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻧﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻛﻛﻝ‬ ، ‫ﺳﺣﺑﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﻓﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﺫ‬ ‫ﺃ‬ ‫ﻥ‬ ‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﻫﺗﻣﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧﺩﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﺎﺣﺙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﺑﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻛﻛﻝ‬ . • ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﻫﺗﻣﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺗﺩﻹﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎء‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ‬ Hypotheses Testing ‫ﻟﻠﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ . 3
  • 84. ‫ﺍﻹﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ Correlation 4 • ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ : ‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﻘﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺻﻭﺭﻩ‬ ‫ﺃﺑﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ . ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻛﻼﻫﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﻳﻥ‬ ) ،‫ﺍﻟﺩﺧﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ‬ . ( ‫ﺍﺳﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻛﻼﻫﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ) ‫ﺃﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺩﺧﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺻﺎﺑﺔ‬ ،‫ﻻ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺳﺭﻁﺎﻥ‬ .( ‫ﺭﺗﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻛﻼﻫﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ . ‫ﻭﺍﻵﺧﺭ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺣﺩ‬ ‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺭﺗﺑﻲ‬ . ‫ﺭﺗﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻵﺧﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺣﺩ‬ ‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺩ‬ .
  • 85. 5 • ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻭﺩﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻭﺟﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﻳﻬﺗﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻱ‬ . ‫ﻭﺟﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻲ‬ ،‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻝ‬ ‫ﻫﻰ‬ ‫ﺿﻌﻳﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻡ‬ ‫ﻗﻭﻳﺔ‬ . ‫ﻁﺭﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻁﺑﻳﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ‬ ) ‫ﻣﻭﺟﺑﺔ‬ ( ‫ﻋﻛﺳﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻡ‬ ) ‫ﺳﺎﻟﺑﺔ‬ .( ‫ﺃﻣﺛﻠﺔ‬ : ‫ﺳﺑﻳﺭﻣﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ،‫ﺑﻳﺭﺳﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ . ،‫ﻛﻧﺩﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﺛﻳﺗﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ،‫ﻛﺭﻳﻣﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ . ‫ﺃﺧﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ : ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﻳﻘﻳﺱ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺣﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺭﻯ‬ . ‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺯﺋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ،‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻌﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ . ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ Correlation
  • 86. ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻼﺋﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ‬ 6 • ‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺗﻌﻳﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻧﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﺭﻑ‬ : ‫ﻛﻣﻲ‬ - ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ‫ـــــــــــــــــ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺇ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﺭﺳﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺭﺗﺑﻲ‬ - ‫ﺟﺎﻣﺎ‬ ،‫ﻛﻧﺩﺍﻝ‬ ،‫ﺳﺑﻳﺭﻣﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ‫ـــــــــــــــ‬ ‫ﺭﺗﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﻲ‬ - ‫ﺍﻹ‬ ،‫ﺳﺑﻳﺭﻣﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ‫ــــــــــــــــ‬ ‫ﺭﺗﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺛﻧﺎﺋﻲ‬ ‫ﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺭﺗﺑﻲ‬ - ‫ﺛﻳﻧﺎ‬ ،‫ﻟﻠﺭﺗﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺛﻧﺎﺋﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ‫ــــــــــــــ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﻣﻲ‬ - ‫ﻓﺎﻱ‬ ،‫ﺗﺷﻳﺭﻭ‬،‫ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬ ،‫ﻛﺭﺍﻣﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ ‫ــــــــــــ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﻣﻲ‬
  • 87. ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎﺟﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺣﺻﺎﺋﺎﺕ‬ Inferential Statistics ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ Correlation Coefficient • ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻧﺻﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻧﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻛﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻳﺳﺗﺧﺩﻡ‬ • ‫ﺑـــ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻣﺛﻝ‬ • ) ‫ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺭﻳﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻣﺎ‬ -1 ‫ﺍﻭ‬ +1 ‫ﻗﻭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻛﺛﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﻭﻥ‬ ( • ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﻭﺍﻉ‬ • ‫ﺍﻳﺟﺎﺑﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ • ‫ﺳﻠﺑﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ • ‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻻﻳﻭﺟﺩ‬
  • 88. ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ Correlation Coefficient ‫ﻋﻣﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬ : ‫ﻭﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺳﻳﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻠﻳﻣﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﺭﻏﺏ‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻌﻳﺗﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻧﺗﺧﺎﺑﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺗﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺭﺍﺕ‬ 2011 . ‫ﺗﺷﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ 46 ‫ﻳﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻠﻳﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻳﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻣﺛﻝ‬ ، ‫ﺳﻳﺩﺓ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻠﻳﻣﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻌﻠﻡ‬ ‫ﻏﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺑﺗﺩﺍﺋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺩﺍﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺛﺎﻧﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺑﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﺩﺑﻠﻭﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﻛﺎﻟﻭﺭﻳﻭﺱ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺟﻳﺳﺗﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻛﺗﻭﺭﺍﻩ‬ 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
  • 89. ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ Correlation Coefficient ‫ﻋﻣﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﺎﻝ‬ : ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻣﻠﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺗﻬﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺳﻳﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻠﻳﻣﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺑﻳﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﺭﻏﺏ‬ ‫ﺟﻣﻌﻳﺗﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻧﺗﺧﺎﺑﻳﺔ‬ 2011 . ‫ﺗﺷﻣﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻳﻧﺔ‬ 46 ‫ﻳﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻛﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻠﻳﻣﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﻳﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻣﺛﻝ‬ ، ‫ﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬ :
  • 90. ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ Correlation Coefficient Raw Data ‫ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻠﻳﻣﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬ 1 2 2 ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬ 2 2 2 ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬ 3 2 0 ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬ 4 5 3 ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬ 5 4 2 ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬ 6 7 3 ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬ 7 1 2 ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬ 8 0 1 ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬ 9 4 2 ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬ 10 3 3 ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬ 11 1 3 ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬ 12 6 4 ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬ 13 6 4 ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬ 14 8 4 ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬ 15 3 2 ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬ 16 2 1 ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬ 17 3 2 ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬ 18 1 3 ‫ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺩﻩ‬ 19 5 3
  • 91. ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ Correlation Coefficient ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﻭﺓ‬ : ‫ﺍﻳﺟﺎﺑﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻝ‬ 0.612294659 ‫ﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﺑﺎﻁ‬ 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Axis Title Axis Title ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬ Linear (‫ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫)ﻋﺩﺩ‬