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Copyright © 2020 McKinsey & Company. All Right Reserved.
Special edition to assess impact of
2nd (partial) lockdown in Europe
Results from consumer survey November 6-10, 2020
COVID-19
Auto & Mobility
Consumer Insights
McKinsey & Company 2
COVID-19 is first and foremost a major humanitarian challenge.
Thousands of health professionals are battling the virus, putting their own lives at risk.
Overstretched health systems will need time and help to return to a semblance of normalcy.
Solving the humanitarian challenge is, of course, priority #1.
Much remains to be done globally to respond and recover, from counting the humanitarian costs
of the virus, to supporting the victims and families, to finding a vaccine.
This document is meant to help with a narrower goal: provide
consumer insights during the current COVID-19 situation.
In addition to the humanitarian challenge, there are implications for the wider economy, businesses,
and employment. This document includes consumer insights from a survey conducted between
May 9-17, May 27-29, June 16-18, July 15-17, Sep 2-4, and Nov 6-10 in the UK, Germany, France,
and Italy
McKinsey & Company 3
Scope of global COVID-19 Auto & Mobility Consumer Survey
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
Markets
UK, DE, FR, IT
Pulse Survey
Respondents
Questions
1. Demographically representative sample of respondents between age 18-70
2. Consumers having planned or planning to buy/lease a car in the next 12 months
20+ questions on mobility behavior
20+ questions on car purchase intent
10 questions on aftersales behavior
10 questions on screening, demo-
graphics, COVID-19 impact
1k+ respondents per market, thereof:
 1,000 mobility participants1
 400 car purchase intenders2
6 Waves conducted
4 EU markets:
Wave 1: May 9-17
Wave 2: May 27-29
Wave 3: Jun 16-18
Wave 4: Jul 15-17
Wave 5: Sep 2-4
Wave 6: Nov 6-10
McKinsey & Company 4
Executive summary
As of November 12, 2020
Car buying Mobility
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
Overall, 2nd lockdown in the EU
is perceived as less challenging
and disruptive than 1st one in
spring (44% stating (slightly) less
challenging, 21% (slightly) more
challenging), French respondents
feel most affected
Higher-income respondents feel
less affected from 2nd (partial)
lockdown
Respondents that feel
particularly challenged in 2nd
lockdown tend to attribute more
importance on private vehicle
access (38% of this group state
an increased importance vs. 26%
in overall population)
58% of EU consumers traveling
less, showing a 7pp. decrease
vs. September; respondents’
mobility usage currently most
affected in France and Italy
Post-COVID-19, consumers are
likely to return to pre-COVID-19
habits; walking, biking, and
micromobility might potentially
become more popular
Shift to private vehicles for
intercity traveling significantly
large for respondents not owning
a private vehicle
A fourth of consumers values
constant access to a private
vehicle more than before
COVID-19, esp. younger and
female consumers
Perception
2nd lockdown
Intent to buy a new car in next 12 months has dropped by 13 pp.
vs. Sep, especially in France (-19 pp.)
Used car purchase intent more robust (-2pp. vs. Sep), even
increasing in the UK, slightly down in Germany and France and more
significant drop in Italy (-8pp.)
Respondents plan to rather delay and spend less on their next car
purchase (e.g., requiring discounts, smaller car/volume brand, less
likely BEV/ADAS features), high-income respondents less affected
Customers make their purchase decision again more dependent
on available discounts – share of respondents that would buy
independently of discounts decreased significantly across EU markets
Preference for physical touch points at the dealers have
decreased, especially visible amongst the 35-54-year-old population.
Openness for online sales is highest in the UK and Germany (ca.
50%) and lowest in France (36%)
Net intent to do maintenance work in the next months decreased
across all regions vs. Sep, especially in Italy
McKinsey & Company 5
The 2nd COVID-19 lockdown is less severe than the 1st one for
automotive retailers, especially in Germany, Italy, and Spain
1. Based on Oxford University “COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index” (0=weakest, 100=strictest lockdown)
Wave 2
(Nov 2020)
Wave 1
(Mar-May
2020)
6459 79 67 71Lockdown stringency1
Indexed, Nov 18
8077 88 94 85Lockdown stringency1
Indexed, Apr 14
Car purchase
incentives
Car purchase
incentives
Restrictions for
automotive retailers
Restrictions for
automotive retailers
Severity of
lockdown 2 vs. 1
Dealerships Service Registration offices Open with limitations (e.g., only for click-and-collect)Lower Similar Higher ClosedOpen
Severity of lockdown 2 vs. 1
Source: Oxford University “Covid-19:Government Response Stringency Index”, published lockdown government regulations, press research
As of November 18, 2020
McKinsey & Company 6
2nd lockdown expected to have overall less severe impact on
automotive retailers in Europe, but strong variation by country
1. New light vehicles sales
2. Based on OECD Consumer Confidence Index
3. Long-term average=100
4. Based on McKinsey COVID-19 Auto & Mobility Consumer Insights Survey
5. For travel between cities
Restrictions for automotive
retailers, Nov 20
Regulatory
circumstances
Sales basis Vehicle sales1
YoY Oct 20 sales growth
Purchase intent4
Change in new car purchase
intent Nov 20 vs. Sep 20
Increased use of private car
post- vs. pre-COVID-194,5
% of respondents (net)
Consumer
sentiment
Consumer confidence2
Indexed3 Oct 20, arrows indicate
trend vs. Sep 20
Expected impact of
lockdown 2 on car sales
-2%
-15pp.
+12%
97.7
-10%
-19pp.
+14%
98.8
-21%
n/a
n/a
96.2
0%
-15pp.
+29%
99.6
-4%
-6pp.
+12%
99.8
No restrictions Fully closed
Source: ACEA New Car Registrations, OECD Consumer Confidence Index, published lockdown government regulations, McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey (Wave 6 – Nov. 2020)
As of November 18, 2020
McKinsey & Company 7
-3
-3
-5
-11
2nd lockdown in the EU results in a decreased purchase intent for new
cars, reduction in aftermarket work, and a drop in mobility usage
As of November 12, 2020
Purchase intent new car vs. used car1,2
Percent of respondents
Car buying Aftermarket Mobility
Customer outlook on maintenance and
repair in light of 2nd lockdown3, net
impact Nov vs. Sep in “plan for next month”
Mobility pattern change vs. Pre-COVID-19,
percent of respondents
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
60
70
90
80
100
May
27-29
Pre-
COVID-
19
May
9-17
June
16-18
July
15-17
Sep
2-4
Nov
6-10
New car Used car
7 5
-22
-29 -30
-53
-22
-28
Sep
3 2
May
2
Nov
2
-7+24
Significant
increase
Slight
decrease
Slight
increase
Significant
decrease
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (Jun 16-18), wave 4 (Jul 15-17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
1. Q: Before the COVID-19/COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to buy a new car?
2. Q: During or after the COVID-19/COVID-19 crisis, how likely will you be to buy a new car?
3. Q: What type of maintenance, repair and improvement work have you delayed or done additionally?
Sampled to match gen pop 18+ years within markets; individual markets weighted based on 2019 car market size, figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding
McKinsey & Company 8
10 8 6
15 12
6
9
8
-19 -21 -16 -18 -23
-8 -7
-6
-14
-4
33
12 12 12 15 10
9 8
13
9
-27
-34
-27
-15
-30
-17
-17
-15
-8
-27
5
Overall, the 2nd lockdown in the EU is perceived as less challenging
and disruptive, French respondents feel most affected
As of November 12, 2020
Perception of lockdown 2 vs. 1
Percent of respondents
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
Mobility behavior disruption of lockdown 2 vs. 1
Percent of respondents
Significantly more challenging
Significantly less challengingSlightly more challenging
Slightly less challenging Significantly more disruptive
Slightly more disruptive Much less disruptive
Slightly less disruptive
Results wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
McKinsey & Company 9
High-income respondents feel slightly less challenged by 2nd
lockdown, especially in Italy
As of November 12, 2020
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
Significantly more challenging
Significantly less challengingSlightly more challenging
Slightly less challenging
14 12
9
-32
-26
-19
-17
3
High
income
Low
income
+3
13 11
-37 -33
-20
-16
3 5
High
income
Low
income
+1
15 12
8
-30 -26
-17
-15
Low
income
High
income
3
+2
19 14
7 13
-14 -15
-8 -8
Low
income
High
income
+1
9 10
10
-35 -30
-24
-27
4
High
income
Low
income
+7
Results wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
Perception of lockdown 2 vs. 1
Percent of respondents
McKinsey & Company 10
“Lockdown-challenged” respondents put higher importance on
access to private vehicle and showed slightly lower demand reduction
As of November 12, 2020
Importance of constant
access to private vehicle
Percent of respondents stating
“Increased”
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
Results wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
Importance of private
vehicle for intercity travel
Percent of respondents stating
“Increased”
38
26
1. Respondents stating perception of 2nd lockdown more challenging
Drop in new car demand
since 2nd lockdown
Purchase intent new cars Sep vs.
Nov, in pp.
33
27
-11 -13
Mobility pattern changes
since 2nd lockdown
Delta of respondents stating
“decreased” Sep vs. November, in pp.
-9 -7
EU overall“Lockdown-challenged” respondents1
McKinsey & Company 11
Contents
Aftermarket
Car buying
Mobility
McKinsey & Company 12
1. Weighted based on 2019 new car sales
In the EU, demand for new cars dropped as a response to the 2nd
lockdown to levels of the 1st lockdown, used cars less affected
As of November 12, 2020
Purchase intent next 12 months for new car vs. used car1
Indexed to pre-COVID-19 value (=100)
80
60
100
70
90
May
27-29
June
16-18
Pre-COVID-19 May
9-17
July
15-17
Sep
2-4
Nov
6-10
-13pp.
-2pp.
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
New car Used car
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (Jun 16-18), wave 4 (Jul 15-17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
McKinsey & Company 13
New car purchase intent shows significant drops across all EU
markets after the 2nd COVID-19-related lockdowns
As of November 12, 2020
74
31 36
49 50 53
43
26
30
27
27
32
33
28
July
15-17
86
Before
COVID-
19
May
27-29
May
9-11
June
16-18
Sep
2-4
Nov
6-10
100
60 64
76
82
71 -15
-40
-29%
Likely Very/extremely likely
Change in %/pp.
70
46
58 58 54
63
51
30
33
26
34 36
28
34
91
Nov
6-10
Sep
2-4
May
11-13
Before
COVID-
19
May
27-29
June
16-18
July
15-17
100
79
84
91 91
85 -6
-21
-15%
61
37 36 34 40 42
28
39
37 39 40
39 37
36
July
15-17
May
27-29
Before
COVID-
19
May
11-13
Nov
6-10
June
16-18
Sep
2-4
75
79
100
75 74
79
64
-25
-15
-36%
67
46
59 59 55 61
47
33
44
37
48
44
49
45
June
16-18
Before
COVID-
19
July
15-17
May
27-29
May
15-17
Sep
2-4
Nov
6-10
100
89
96
106
100
110
91
-19
-11
-9%
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
07/08: Up to EUR 9,000 purchase subsidy for xEVs,
plus abolishing vehicle tax on BEVs until 2030
06/01: EUR 7,000 subsidy for the purchase of an EV
costing up to EUR 45,000 and EUR 2,000 for PHEVs
up to EUR 50,000
07/17: EUR 6,000 incentive for the purchase of lower
emission ICEs, HEVs, and BEVs costing up to
EUR 61,000
-12
+3
X Premium brand customers in pp.
-9
-18
Purchase intent new cars vs. pre-COVID-19 level1,2
Percentage points
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (Jun 16-18), wave 4 (Jul 15-17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
1. Q: BEFORE the COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months?
2. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how likely are you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months?
McKinsey & Company 14
Used car purchase intent much more robust – even increasing in the
UK, slightly down in GER and FR, and more significant drop in IT
As of November 12, 2020
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
51
30 32 31 33 33 33
49
30 27
37 38 40
46
Before
COVID-
19
May
9-11
May
27-29
Nov
6-10
74
Sep
2-4
69
June
16-18
July
15-17
100
60 59
71
79
-21%
Very/extremely likelyLikely
65
31 34 37
47
32
42
35
39
37
38
44
53
41
Before
COVID-
19
Sep
2-4
May
11-13
June
16-18
May
27-29
July
15-17
Nov
6-10
100
69 71
74
86
91
82
-18%
43
30
23
30 33 30
35
57
41 54
51
52 62 49
June
16-18
Before
COVID-
19
May
11-13
Sep
2-4
May
27-29
July
15-17
Nov
6-10
100
72
81
77
85
92
84
-16%
53
36 32
44 43
28 33
47
53
46
47 48
70 62
78
July
15-17
Before
COVID-
19
Sep
2-4
May
15-17
May
27-29
June
16-18
Nov
6-10
100
9189 91
98
95
-5%
Purchase intent used cars vs. pre-COVID-19 level1,2
Percentage points
Change in %
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (Jun 16-18), wave 4 (Jul 15-17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
1. Q: BEFORE the COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months?
2. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how likely are you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months?
McKinsey & Company 15
Since 2nd lockdown, EU respondents show signs of delaying
purchase and reduced spending/higher discount expectation
As of November 12, 2020
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
-16
14
-12
5
-5
-9 -7 -6
Delay
purchase
Vehicle
with ICE
Requiring less
discounts
Spend
less
Less ADAS
features
Finance/
lease
Budget/
volume brand
Smaller
car
Requiring higher
discounts
Pull forward
purchase
Spend
more Buy
Electric
vehicle
Bigger
car
Premium
brand
More ADAS
features
Expected change in car characteristics (change of preferences before vs. after 2nd lockdown)
Net score
Results of wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
McKinsey & Company 16
Changes in car characteristics due to the 2nd lockdown are
directionally aligned across EU countries, but vary in magnitude
As of November 12, 2020
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
-70
Finance/lease
-7
Requiring less
discounts
Delay purchase Spend less
-1 0
Vehicle with ICE
-5
Smaller car
-8
Budget/volume
brand
-8
Less ADAS features
-24
26
-17 -11 -14 -17
6 -3
-14
14
-11
11
-8-5 -4 0
-20
17
-14 -15
7
-5 -4-3
Pull forward
purchase
Requiring higher
discounts
Spend more Buy Electric vehicle Bigger car Premium brand More ADAS
features
Expected change in car characteristics (change of preferences before vs. after 2nd lockdown)
Net score
Results of wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
McKinsey & Company 17
High-income respondents are less influenced in their car
purchase plans
As of November 12, 2020
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
-17
15
-14
4
-7
-11 -9 -7
Delay purchase Requiring less
discounts
Spend less Budget/volume
brand
Finance/lease Vehicle with ICE Smaller car Less ADAS features
-11
-4
3
02 00 0
Pull forward
purchase
Requiring higher
discounts
Spend more Buy Electric vehicle Bigger car Premium brand More ADAS
featuresHigh
income
Low
income
Expected change in car characteristics (change of preferences before vs. after 2nd lockdown)
Net score
Results of wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
McKinsey & Company 18
Delays due to health concerns increased again
for the 1st time since the COVID-19 outbreak
As of November 12, 2020
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
14 14 13
35
25 32
52
61 55
Sep 2-4May 9-18 Nov 6-10
Subsidies
Economics
Health
Purchase delay reasons1
Percent of respondents
Health concerns as
reason for purchase delay
increased for the 1st time
since the COVID-19
outbreak due to the latest
2nd (partial) lockdowns in
the EU
Economics lose
ground, but are still
the biggest reason
for purchase delays
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
1. Q: Which of the following reasons best describes why you have decided to delay your purchase (or lease) of a new vehicle? Please select 1
McKinsey & Company 19
Buy independently
of discount
Up to 20%
More than 20%
Discount expectations have significantly increased since the 2nd
lockdown – fewer customers state to buy “independently of discount”
As of November 12, 2020
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
Sep 2-4 Nov 6-10
24
14
59
67
1916
14
Sep 2-4 Nov 6-10
22
63
54
23 23
Sep 2-4
7
Nov 6-10
19
6763
18
26
Sep 2-4 Nov 6-10
13
10
60 55
27
35
Required discount amount for consumer to purchase a vehicle in the next 1-2 months1
Percent of respondents
Results of wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
1. Q: What total discount/incentive amount (incl. any potential government subsidies) would it take for you to buy or lease a vehicle in the next 1-2 months?
McKinsey & Company 20
Preference to interact physically at dealership has
particularly decreased for age group 35-54 years
As of November 12, 2020
32
37
58
Age 18-34 Age 35-54 Age 55-70
21
31
46
Age 35-54Age 18-34 Age 55-70
36
43
57
Age 35-54Age 18-34 Age 55-70
35
41
61
Age 55-70Age 18-34 Age 35-54
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
-10 -8 -8 0 -11 -9 +5 -4 0 -3 -14 -4
Δ pp. vs. previous purchase
Consumers preferring to interact in person at car dealership for purchasing next car1,2
Percent of respondents
Results of wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
1. Q: When you LAST TIME purchased or leased a car/serviced a car, which of the following sources/channels did you predominately use? Answer: “In
presence at dealer”
2. Q: For your PLANNED/NEXT vehicle purchase/leased/car service, which of the following sources/channels would you prefer to use? Answer: “In presence
at dealer”
McKinsey & Company 21
Interest in online and contactless offerings has strongly increased
in the UK and Germany, while slightly decreased in France and Italy
As of November 12, 2020
Δ pp. vs. survey wave 1-5± xx
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey (May 9-17, May 27-29, June 16-18, July 15-17)
A – Online buying – buying a new vehicle online B – Contactless sales – buying vehicle completely contactless C – Contactless service – contactless service with dealer or repair shop
24
2510
42
BA
26
34
C
52
49
59
39
8
21
A
31
52
22
B
23
C
47
44
147
28
A
26
31
B
12
18
C
36
41
33
19
B
5
C
38
A
11
23
43
34
52
3 8 5 6 7 1 -2 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1
Interested
Very/extremely interestedResults of wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
Interest in digital/contactless sales and service1,2,3,
Percent of respondents
1. Q: Would you consider purchasing or leasing a new or used vehicle completely online?
2. Q: How interested would you be in the following services?
3. Q: How interested would you be in contactless service options?/contactless car sales?
Contents
Car buying
Aftermarket
Mobility
McKinsey & Company 22
McKinsey & Company 23
Service and repair outlook for next month is still showing
a high share of customers that plan to do more work than usual …
As of September 21, 2020
47% 27%26%
79% 11%10%
No changesDelay Done additionally
7% 28%65%
4% 11%85%
19% 25%55%
10%79%10%
14% 32%55%
16%17% 67%
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
Net
impact2
0
+ 1
+7
0
-1
+21
+6
+18
Net impact
wave 52
- 3
+ 4
+5
+3
0
+24
+11
+29
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
Up until now
Plan for next month
Up until now
Plan for next month
Up until now
Plan for next month
Up until now
Plan for next month
Results of wave 5 (Sep 2-4) and wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
Changes in maintenance and repair since beginning of COVID-191
Percent of respondents
1. Q: What type of maintenance, repair and improvement work have you delayed or done additionally?, figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding
2. Net impact is calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents stating they have delayed service and maintenance work from the percent of
respondents stating they have done additional maintenance work
McKinsey & Company 24
… however, net intent to do maintenance work in the next month
decreased across all regions vs. September survey, especially in Italy
As of November 12, 2020
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
-3
-3
-5
-11
1. Q: What type of maintenance, repair and improvement work have you delayed or done additionally?, figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding
2. Net impact is calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents stating they have delayed service and maintenance work from the percent of
respondents stating they have done additional maintenance work
Customer outlook on maintenance and repair in light of 2nd lockdown1
Net impact2 Nov vs. Sep in “plan for next month”
Results of wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
Contents
Car buying
Aftermarket
Mobility
McKinsey & Company 25
McKinsey & Company 26Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
Mobility usage patterns in France and Italy are most affected
by the 2nd COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe
As of November 12, 2020
EU 2
Significant decrease
Significant increase
Slight increase
Slight decrease
x Mobility recovery3, in pp.
4 5 5 8 6
-29 -29 -29 -28 -25 -26
-33
-26 -24
-16
-16 -16
3
1
W1
2
W6
1
W2 W3
2
W4
3
W5
2
-1
6 4
-21
-29 -32
-36 -37 -36
-66 -53
-40 -29 -23
-34
22 2 1 3
W1
2
W2 W3
1
4
W4
2
W5
2
W6
-10
4 5 6 7 4
-20
-25 -27 -29 -29 -31
-60 -50
-33
-23 -19
-35
3
1
2
W1 W5
2
W2
2
W3 W4
2
1
W6
-18
4 5 7 5
-22 -25 -27 -29 -29 -30
-53 -45
-36
-26
-22
-28
W3
3
22
2
2
W1 W2
4
2
W4 W5
2
W6
-7
4 5 7 6
-18 -19 -22 -24 -26 -27
-53 -50
-48
-39
-30 -27
W5W3W2
2
4
W1
2
22
4
2
3
W4 W6
+1
Mobility pattern changes (number and length of trips) since the outbreak of COVID-191
Percent of respondents
Currently, 58% of
EU consumers
traveling less,
showing a
7pp. decrease
vs. last wave due
to the latest
lockdowns
Respondents’
mobility usage
currently most
affected in
France and Italy
1. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how has your mobility changed since the outbreak of COVID-19?
2. UK, Germany, Italy, and France
3. Total mobility decrease wave 6 vs. wave 5
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (Jun 16-18), wave 4 (Jul 15-17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
McKinsey & Company 27
Walking/biking and micromobility potentially becoming
more popular in the modal mix of the “next normal”
As of November 12, 2020
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
81
60
68
73
78
79
75
81
Return to
“normal life”
Wave 3
Wave 2
Before crisis
Wave 6
Wave 1
Wave 5
Wave 4
-20
-4
35
15
17
18
21
24
22
35
-20
-2
66
61
66
67
67
67
64
73
-3
-6
8
7
7
7
7
9
9
10
-2
-1
7
5
5
5
6
7
7
8
-1
0
8
6
6
5
6
7
7
9
-2
-1
x
Mobility
decrease, in pp.
Mobility usage
pre- vs. post-crisis
Mobility usage
during crisis
Respondents
expect an
increased usage
of walking/
biking and
micromobility
when returning
to “normal life”
Slight decrease
in mobility usage
across all major
transportation
modes after 2nd
lockdowns in
Europe, but with
less magnitude
than 1st lockdown
Private car
Public
transport
Walking or biking
with private bike
Micromobility
(e.g., e-scooter,
e-bike)
Car sharing
(e.g.,
ShareNow)
Ride hailing
(e.g., Uber,
Lyft, taxis)
1. Q: Before/today/when you return to “next normal”, how often did/do you/do you expect to use the following modes of transportation?
2. Once or more than once per week, aggregated results from the UK, Germany, Italy, and France
Usage of transportation modes on a regular basis1,2
Percent of respondents stating at least weekly
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (Jun 16-18), wave 4 (Jul 15-17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
McKinsey & Company 28
Change of mode mix before and after COVID-19 shows
largest regional variation for public transport
As of November 12, 2020
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
0.5
0.7
-0.1
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.2
-2.4
1.1
1.2 5.1
6.2
8.2
5.7
6.0
4.1
0.8
1.9
1.4
1.2 1.1
1.4
2.9
0.7
1.0
0
1.2
1.1
3.0
0.8
EU 3
Private car Public transport
Walking or biking
with private bike
Micromobility
(e.g., e-scooter, e-bike)
Car sharing
(e.g., ShareNow)
Ride hailing
(e.g., Uber, Lyft, taxis)
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (Jun 16-18), wave 4 (Jul 15-17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
1. Q: Before/today/when you return to “next normal”, how often did/do you/do you expect to use the following modes of transportation?
2. Mode usage once or more than once per week
3. UK, Germany, Italy, and France
Change of transportation modes when returning to “next normal” vs. before COVID-191,2
Delta of responses for return to “next normal” vs. before COVID-19 outbreak, percentage points
McKinsey & Company 29Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
Frequency of commuting trips has significantly decreased
globally, 2nd lockdown affecting especially France and Italy
As of November 12, 2020
13
-12 -12 -13 -14 -18 -14 -17
-66 -63 -60
-49 -38 -38
22 1
W2
43
W1
3
W4W3
8
16 25 8
W5
2
W6
-6
Next normal
+4
-19 -17 -20 -16 -17 -17 -11
-36 -33 -25
-19 -20 -21
1 12
7
W2
1
W1
421 2
W4W3
3 1 15
W5 W6
9
-3
Next normal
0
18
11
-23 -21 -24 -23 -25 -26
-13
-56
-48 -37
-31 -25 -30
1 61 1
W2
2
W1
2 2
W3
14
W4
1
W5
14
W6
-3
Next normal
-6
-16 -15 -17 -17 -20 -19 -13
-51 -48
-32
-19 -14 -26
551 95 2
W1 W2
1
W3
15 5
W4
1
W5
12
W6
6
-3
Next normal
-10
Slight increase
Significant increase
Significant decrease
Slight decrease
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (Jun 16-18), wave 4 (Jul 15-17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
Change in number of commuting trips during and after the crisis vs. commuting habits before1,2
Percent of respondents
1. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how has the number of trips of your commute changed since the outbreak of COVID-19?
2. Q: After you return to “next normal”, i.e., when a vaccine against COVID-19 is broadly available and the pandemic is defeated, how do you think your
commuting habits will be compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak?
McKinsey & Company 30Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
Around the world, consumers expect to shift from airplanes and
trains for intercity traveling to an increased use of private vehicles
As of November 12, 2020
Airplane
Train
Private
vehicle
15 14 18 15 15
-37 -39 -33 -35 -42 -38 -32
14 14
Decreased usageIncreased usage
18 14 18 22 18 18 19
-27 -31 -21 -29 -28 -28 -19
28 25 22
38 27 28 22
-15-10 -9-11 -11-13 -13
Owning
a vehicle
Not owning
a vehicle
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (Jun 16-18), wave 4 (Jul 15-17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
Change of mode for intercity traveling when returning to “next normal” vs. habits before COVID-19 outbreak1
Percent of respondents2
1. Q: After you return to next normal, how do you think traveling between cities will change compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak?
2. Consumers that have not used this mode of transportation before the COVID-19 outbreak excluded of scope of country
McKinsey & Company 31
Risk of infection: shared and public transport are not considered as
safe for health, infections became a top priority for the mode choice
As of November 12, 2020
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
81
9
64
8 5 5
People increasingly use active
transport modes such as
walking and biking
Public transit
ridership has
fallen
significantly
Car sharing usage, as all shared
mobility modes, dropped
significantly
“Car as safe
space”: people
switch to transport
modes with low
risk of infection
What we
observe
during the
pandemic
Private car
Public
transport
Walking/
biking3
Shared
micro-
mobility Ride hailingCar sharing
Before the COVID-19 crisis Today
1. Time to destination
2. Price of trip
3. Space and privacy
4. Convenience
5. Congestion
1. Risk of infection
2. Time to destination
3. Space and privacy
4. Convenience
5. Price of trip
50
… percent of respondents
would increase mode usage
with regular disinfection
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (Jun 16-18), wave 4 (Jul 15-17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
1. Q: Which of the following modes of transportation do you consider safe for your health concerning a COVID-19 infection?
2. Aggregated results from the US, the UK, Germany, Italy, France, China, and Japan
3. With private bike
4. For a private trip
Top-5 reasons to choose transport mode4
Reasons ranked by number of respondents
Modes of transportation considered safe for health, concerning a COVID-19 infection1,2
Percent of respondents
McKinsey & Company 32
51
43
29
-22 -27
-37
55-7035-5418-34
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
Increased importance of direct vehicle access and willingness to
expand this to new use cases, especially for younger consumers
As of September 21, 2020
By age
26
-14
Increased Decreased
36
24 21
-16 -14 -13
18-34 35-54 55-70
By age
NoYes
39
-30
3 3
Results of wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
Willingness to expand private vehicles to new use cases2
Percent of vehicle owners
Importance of constant access to a private vehicle1
Percent of respondents
1. Q: How has the importance of having constant access to a private vehicle changed since the COVID-19 outbreak?
2. Q: Based on your experience with COVID-19,could you imagine extending your use of private vehicles beyond traveling in the future, (e.g., for consuming
via drive-ins for shopping or cinema)?
3. Aggregated results from the UK, Germany, Italy, and France
McKinsey & Company 33
Disclaimer
McKinsey does not provide legal, medical or other regulated advice or guarantee results. These
materials reflect general insight based on information currently available and do not contain all of
the information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information has not been
generated or independently verified by McKinsey and is inherently uncertain and subject to
change. McKinsey has no obligation to update these materials and makes no representation or
warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with respect thereto.

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COVID-19 Auto & Mobility Consumer Insights

  • 1. Copyright © 2020 McKinsey & Company. All Right Reserved. Special edition to assess impact of 2nd (partial) lockdown in Europe Results from consumer survey November 6-10, 2020 COVID-19 Auto & Mobility Consumer Insights
  • 2. McKinsey & Company 2 COVID-19 is first and foremost a major humanitarian challenge. Thousands of health professionals are battling the virus, putting their own lives at risk. Overstretched health systems will need time and help to return to a semblance of normalcy. Solving the humanitarian challenge is, of course, priority #1. Much remains to be done globally to respond and recover, from counting the humanitarian costs of the virus, to supporting the victims and families, to finding a vaccine. This document is meant to help with a narrower goal: provide consumer insights during the current COVID-19 situation. In addition to the humanitarian challenge, there are implications for the wider economy, businesses, and employment. This document includes consumer insights from a survey conducted between May 9-17, May 27-29, June 16-18, July 15-17, Sep 2-4, and Nov 6-10 in the UK, Germany, France, and Italy
  • 3. McKinsey & Company 3 Scope of global COVID-19 Auto & Mobility Consumer Survey Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey Markets UK, DE, FR, IT Pulse Survey Respondents Questions 1. Demographically representative sample of respondents between age 18-70 2. Consumers having planned or planning to buy/lease a car in the next 12 months 20+ questions on mobility behavior 20+ questions on car purchase intent 10 questions on aftersales behavior 10 questions on screening, demo- graphics, COVID-19 impact 1k+ respondents per market, thereof:  1,000 mobility participants1  400 car purchase intenders2 6 Waves conducted 4 EU markets: Wave 1: May 9-17 Wave 2: May 27-29 Wave 3: Jun 16-18 Wave 4: Jul 15-17 Wave 5: Sep 2-4 Wave 6: Nov 6-10
  • 4. McKinsey & Company 4 Executive summary As of November 12, 2020 Car buying Mobility Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey Overall, 2nd lockdown in the EU is perceived as less challenging and disruptive than 1st one in spring (44% stating (slightly) less challenging, 21% (slightly) more challenging), French respondents feel most affected Higher-income respondents feel less affected from 2nd (partial) lockdown Respondents that feel particularly challenged in 2nd lockdown tend to attribute more importance on private vehicle access (38% of this group state an increased importance vs. 26% in overall population) 58% of EU consumers traveling less, showing a 7pp. decrease vs. September; respondents’ mobility usage currently most affected in France and Italy Post-COVID-19, consumers are likely to return to pre-COVID-19 habits; walking, biking, and micromobility might potentially become more popular Shift to private vehicles for intercity traveling significantly large for respondents not owning a private vehicle A fourth of consumers values constant access to a private vehicle more than before COVID-19, esp. younger and female consumers Perception 2nd lockdown Intent to buy a new car in next 12 months has dropped by 13 pp. vs. Sep, especially in France (-19 pp.) Used car purchase intent more robust (-2pp. vs. Sep), even increasing in the UK, slightly down in Germany and France and more significant drop in Italy (-8pp.) Respondents plan to rather delay and spend less on their next car purchase (e.g., requiring discounts, smaller car/volume brand, less likely BEV/ADAS features), high-income respondents less affected Customers make their purchase decision again more dependent on available discounts – share of respondents that would buy independently of discounts decreased significantly across EU markets Preference for physical touch points at the dealers have decreased, especially visible amongst the 35-54-year-old population. Openness for online sales is highest in the UK and Germany (ca. 50%) and lowest in France (36%) Net intent to do maintenance work in the next months decreased across all regions vs. Sep, especially in Italy
  • 5. McKinsey & Company 5 The 2nd COVID-19 lockdown is less severe than the 1st one for automotive retailers, especially in Germany, Italy, and Spain 1. Based on Oxford University “COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index” (0=weakest, 100=strictest lockdown) Wave 2 (Nov 2020) Wave 1 (Mar-May 2020) 6459 79 67 71Lockdown stringency1 Indexed, Nov 18 8077 88 94 85Lockdown stringency1 Indexed, Apr 14 Car purchase incentives Car purchase incentives Restrictions for automotive retailers Restrictions for automotive retailers Severity of lockdown 2 vs. 1 Dealerships Service Registration offices Open with limitations (e.g., only for click-and-collect)Lower Similar Higher ClosedOpen Severity of lockdown 2 vs. 1 Source: Oxford University “Covid-19:Government Response Stringency Index”, published lockdown government regulations, press research As of November 18, 2020
  • 6. McKinsey & Company 6 2nd lockdown expected to have overall less severe impact on automotive retailers in Europe, but strong variation by country 1. New light vehicles sales 2. Based on OECD Consumer Confidence Index 3. Long-term average=100 4. Based on McKinsey COVID-19 Auto & Mobility Consumer Insights Survey 5. For travel between cities Restrictions for automotive retailers, Nov 20 Regulatory circumstances Sales basis Vehicle sales1 YoY Oct 20 sales growth Purchase intent4 Change in new car purchase intent Nov 20 vs. Sep 20 Increased use of private car post- vs. pre-COVID-194,5 % of respondents (net) Consumer sentiment Consumer confidence2 Indexed3 Oct 20, arrows indicate trend vs. Sep 20 Expected impact of lockdown 2 on car sales -2% -15pp. +12% 97.7 -10% -19pp. +14% 98.8 -21% n/a n/a 96.2 0% -15pp. +29% 99.6 -4% -6pp. +12% 99.8 No restrictions Fully closed Source: ACEA New Car Registrations, OECD Consumer Confidence Index, published lockdown government regulations, McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey (Wave 6 – Nov. 2020) As of November 18, 2020
  • 7. McKinsey & Company 7 -3 -3 -5 -11 2nd lockdown in the EU results in a decreased purchase intent for new cars, reduction in aftermarket work, and a drop in mobility usage As of November 12, 2020 Purchase intent new car vs. used car1,2 Percent of respondents Car buying Aftermarket Mobility Customer outlook on maintenance and repair in light of 2nd lockdown3, net impact Nov vs. Sep in “plan for next month” Mobility pattern change vs. Pre-COVID-19, percent of respondents Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey 60 70 90 80 100 May 27-29 Pre- COVID- 19 May 9-17 June 16-18 July 15-17 Sep 2-4 Nov 6-10 New car Used car 7 5 -22 -29 -30 -53 -22 -28 Sep 3 2 May 2 Nov 2 -7+24 Significant increase Slight decrease Slight increase Significant decrease Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (Jun 16-18), wave 4 (Jul 15-17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10) 1. Q: Before the COVID-19/COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to buy a new car? 2. Q: During or after the COVID-19/COVID-19 crisis, how likely will you be to buy a new car? 3. Q: What type of maintenance, repair and improvement work have you delayed or done additionally? Sampled to match gen pop 18+ years within markets; individual markets weighted based on 2019 car market size, figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding
  • 8. McKinsey & Company 8 10 8 6 15 12 6 9 8 -19 -21 -16 -18 -23 -8 -7 -6 -14 -4 33 12 12 12 15 10 9 8 13 9 -27 -34 -27 -15 -30 -17 -17 -15 -8 -27 5 Overall, the 2nd lockdown in the EU is perceived as less challenging and disruptive, French respondents feel most affected As of November 12, 2020 Perception of lockdown 2 vs. 1 Percent of respondents Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey Mobility behavior disruption of lockdown 2 vs. 1 Percent of respondents Significantly more challenging Significantly less challengingSlightly more challenging Slightly less challenging Significantly more disruptive Slightly more disruptive Much less disruptive Slightly less disruptive Results wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
  • 9. McKinsey & Company 9 High-income respondents feel slightly less challenged by 2nd lockdown, especially in Italy As of November 12, 2020 Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey Significantly more challenging Significantly less challengingSlightly more challenging Slightly less challenging 14 12 9 -32 -26 -19 -17 3 High income Low income +3 13 11 -37 -33 -20 -16 3 5 High income Low income +1 15 12 8 -30 -26 -17 -15 Low income High income 3 +2 19 14 7 13 -14 -15 -8 -8 Low income High income +1 9 10 10 -35 -30 -24 -27 4 High income Low income +7 Results wave 6 (Nov 6-10) Perception of lockdown 2 vs. 1 Percent of respondents
  • 10. McKinsey & Company 10 “Lockdown-challenged” respondents put higher importance on access to private vehicle and showed slightly lower demand reduction As of November 12, 2020 Importance of constant access to private vehicle Percent of respondents stating “Increased” Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey Results wave 6 (Nov 6-10) Importance of private vehicle for intercity travel Percent of respondents stating “Increased” 38 26 1. Respondents stating perception of 2nd lockdown more challenging Drop in new car demand since 2nd lockdown Purchase intent new cars Sep vs. Nov, in pp. 33 27 -11 -13 Mobility pattern changes since 2nd lockdown Delta of respondents stating “decreased” Sep vs. November, in pp. -9 -7 EU overall“Lockdown-challenged” respondents1
  • 11. McKinsey & Company 11 Contents Aftermarket Car buying Mobility
  • 12. McKinsey & Company 12 1. Weighted based on 2019 new car sales In the EU, demand for new cars dropped as a response to the 2nd lockdown to levels of the 1st lockdown, used cars less affected As of November 12, 2020 Purchase intent next 12 months for new car vs. used car1 Indexed to pre-COVID-19 value (=100) 80 60 100 70 90 May 27-29 June 16-18 Pre-COVID-19 May 9-17 July 15-17 Sep 2-4 Nov 6-10 -13pp. -2pp. Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey New car Used car Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (Jun 16-18), wave 4 (Jul 15-17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
  • 13. McKinsey & Company 13 New car purchase intent shows significant drops across all EU markets after the 2nd COVID-19-related lockdowns As of November 12, 2020 74 31 36 49 50 53 43 26 30 27 27 32 33 28 July 15-17 86 Before COVID- 19 May 27-29 May 9-11 June 16-18 Sep 2-4 Nov 6-10 100 60 64 76 82 71 -15 -40 -29% Likely Very/extremely likely Change in %/pp. 70 46 58 58 54 63 51 30 33 26 34 36 28 34 91 Nov 6-10 Sep 2-4 May 11-13 Before COVID- 19 May 27-29 June 16-18 July 15-17 100 79 84 91 91 85 -6 -21 -15% 61 37 36 34 40 42 28 39 37 39 40 39 37 36 July 15-17 May 27-29 Before COVID- 19 May 11-13 Nov 6-10 June 16-18 Sep 2-4 75 79 100 75 74 79 64 -25 -15 -36% 67 46 59 59 55 61 47 33 44 37 48 44 49 45 June 16-18 Before COVID- 19 July 15-17 May 27-29 May 15-17 Sep 2-4 Nov 6-10 100 89 96 106 100 110 91 -19 -11 -9% Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey 07/08: Up to EUR 9,000 purchase subsidy for xEVs, plus abolishing vehicle tax on BEVs until 2030 06/01: EUR 7,000 subsidy for the purchase of an EV costing up to EUR 45,000 and EUR 2,000 for PHEVs up to EUR 50,000 07/17: EUR 6,000 incentive for the purchase of lower emission ICEs, HEVs, and BEVs costing up to EUR 61,000 -12 +3 X Premium brand customers in pp. -9 -18 Purchase intent new cars vs. pre-COVID-19 level1,2 Percentage points Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (Jun 16-18), wave 4 (Jul 15-17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10) 1. Q: BEFORE the COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months? 2. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how likely are you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months?
  • 14. McKinsey & Company 14 Used car purchase intent much more robust – even increasing in the UK, slightly down in GER and FR, and more significant drop in IT As of November 12, 2020 Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey 51 30 32 31 33 33 33 49 30 27 37 38 40 46 Before COVID- 19 May 9-11 May 27-29 Nov 6-10 74 Sep 2-4 69 June 16-18 July 15-17 100 60 59 71 79 -21% Very/extremely likelyLikely 65 31 34 37 47 32 42 35 39 37 38 44 53 41 Before COVID- 19 Sep 2-4 May 11-13 June 16-18 May 27-29 July 15-17 Nov 6-10 100 69 71 74 86 91 82 -18% 43 30 23 30 33 30 35 57 41 54 51 52 62 49 June 16-18 Before COVID- 19 May 11-13 Sep 2-4 May 27-29 July 15-17 Nov 6-10 100 72 81 77 85 92 84 -16% 53 36 32 44 43 28 33 47 53 46 47 48 70 62 78 July 15-17 Before COVID- 19 Sep 2-4 May 15-17 May 27-29 June 16-18 Nov 6-10 100 9189 91 98 95 -5% Purchase intent used cars vs. pre-COVID-19 level1,2 Percentage points Change in % Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (Jun 16-18), wave 4 (Jul 15-17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10) 1. Q: BEFORE the COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months? 2. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how likely are you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months?
  • 15. McKinsey & Company 15 Since 2nd lockdown, EU respondents show signs of delaying purchase and reduced spending/higher discount expectation As of November 12, 2020 Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey -16 14 -12 5 -5 -9 -7 -6 Delay purchase Vehicle with ICE Requiring less discounts Spend less Less ADAS features Finance/ lease Budget/ volume brand Smaller car Requiring higher discounts Pull forward purchase Spend more Buy Electric vehicle Bigger car Premium brand More ADAS features Expected change in car characteristics (change of preferences before vs. after 2nd lockdown) Net score Results of wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
  • 16. McKinsey & Company 16 Changes in car characteristics due to the 2nd lockdown are directionally aligned across EU countries, but vary in magnitude As of November 12, 2020 Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey -70 Finance/lease -7 Requiring less discounts Delay purchase Spend less -1 0 Vehicle with ICE -5 Smaller car -8 Budget/volume brand -8 Less ADAS features -24 26 -17 -11 -14 -17 6 -3 -14 14 -11 11 -8-5 -4 0 -20 17 -14 -15 7 -5 -4-3 Pull forward purchase Requiring higher discounts Spend more Buy Electric vehicle Bigger car Premium brand More ADAS features Expected change in car characteristics (change of preferences before vs. after 2nd lockdown) Net score Results of wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
  • 17. McKinsey & Company 17 High-income respondents are less influenced in their car purchase plans As of November 12, 2020 Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey -17 15 -14 4 -7 -11 -9 -7 Delay purchase Requiring less discounts Spend less Budget/volume brand Finance/lease Vehicle with ICE Smaller car Less ADAS features -11 -4 3 02 00 0 Pull forward purchase Requiring higher discounts Spend more Buy Electric vehicle Bigger car Premium brand More ADAS featuresHigh income Low income Expected change in car characteristics (change of preferences before vs. after 2nd lockdown) Net score Results of wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
  • 18. McKinsey & Company 18 Delays due to health concerns increased again for the 1st time since the COVID-19 outbreak As of November 12, 2020 Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey 14 14 13 35 25 32 52 61 55 Sep 2-4May 9-18 Nov 6-10 Subsidies Economics Health Purchase delay reasons1 Percent of respondents Health concerns as reason for purchase delay increased for the 1st time since the COVID-19 outbreak due to the latest 2nd (partial) lockdowns in the EU Economics lose ground, but are still the biggest reason for purchase delays Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10) 1. Q: Which of the following reasons best describes why you have decided to delay your purchase (or lease) of a new vehicle? Please select 1
  • 19. McKinsey & Company 19 Buy independently of discount Up to 20% More than 20% Discount expectations have significantly increased since the 2nd lockdown – fewer customers state to buy “independently of discount” As of November 12, 2020 Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey Sep 2-4 Nov 6-10 24 14 59 67 1916 14 Sep 2-4 Nov 6-10 22 63 54 23 23 Sep 2-4 7 Nov 6-10 19 6763 18 26 Sep 2-4 Nov 6-10 13 10 60 55 27 35 Required discount amount for consumer to purchase a vehicle in the next 1-2 months1 Percent of respondents Results of wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10) 1. Q: What total discount/incentive amount (incl. any potential government subsidies) would it take for you to buy or lease a vehicle in the next 1-2 months?
  • 20. McKinsey & Company 20 Preference to interact physically at dealership has particularly decreased for age group 35-54 years As of November 12, 2020 32 37 58 Age 18-34 Age 35-54 Age 55-70 21 31 46 Age 35-54Age 18-34 Age 55-70 36 43 57 Age 35-54Age 18-34 Age 55-70 35 41 61 Age 55-70Age 18-34 Age 35-54 Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey -10 -8 -8 0 -11 -9 +5 -4 0 -3 -14 -4 Δ pp. vs. previous purchase Consumers preferring to interact in person at car dealership for purchasing next car1,2 Percent of respondents Results of wave 6 (Nov 6-10) 1. Q: When you LAST TIME purchased or leased a car/serviced a car, which of the following sources/channels did you predominately use? Answer: “In presence at dealer” 2. Q: For your PLANNED/NEXT vehicle purchase/leased/car service, which of the following sources/channels would you prefer to use? Answer: “In presence at dealer”
  • 21. McKinsey & Company 21 Interest in online and contactless offerings has strongly increased in the UK and Germany, while slightly decreased in France and Italy As of November 12, 2020 Δ pp. vs. survey wave 1-5± xx Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey (May 9-17, May 27-29, June 16-18, July 15-17) A – Online buying – buying a new vehicle online B – Contactless sales – buying vehicle completely contactless C – Contactless service – contactless service with dealer or repair shop 24 2510 42 BA 26 34 C 52 49 59 39 8 21 A 31 52 22 B 23 C 47 44 147 28 A 26 31 B 12 18 C 36 41 33 19 B 5 C 38 A 11 23 43 34 52 3 8 5 6 7 1 -2 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 Interested Very/extremely interestedResults of wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10) Interest in digital/contactless sales and service1,2,3, Percent of respondents 1. Q: Would you consider purchasing or leasing a new or used vehicle completely online? 2. Q: How interested would you be in the following services? 3. Q: How interested would you be in contactless service options?/contactless car sales?
  • 23. McKinsey & Company 23 Service and repair outlook for next month is still showing a high share of customers that plan to do more work than usual … As of September 21, 2020 47% 27%26% 79% 11%10% No changesDelay Done additionally 7% 28%65% 4% 11%85% 19% 25%55% 10%79%10% 14% 32%55% 16%17% 67% Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey +39 +39 +39 +39 +39 +39 +39 +39 Net impact2 0 + 1 +7 0 -1 +21 +6 +18 Net impact wave 52 - 3 + 4 +5 +3 0 +24 +11 +29 +39 +39 +39 +39 +39 +39 +39 +39 Up until now Plan for next month Up until now Plan for next month Up until now Plan for next month Up until now Plan for next month Results of wave 5 (Sep 2-4) and wave 6 (Nov 6-10) Changes in maintenance and repair since beginning of COVID-191 Percent of respondents 1. Q: What type of maintenance, repair and improvement work have you delayed or done additionally?, figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding 2. Net impact is calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents stating they have delayed service and maintenance work from the percent of respondents stating they have done additional maintenance work
  • 24. McKinsey & Company 24 … however, net intent to do maintenance work in the next month decreased across all regions vs. September survey, especially in Italy As of November 12, 2020 Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey -3 -3 -5 -11 1. Q: What type of maintenance, repair and improvement work have you delayed or done additionally?, figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding 2. Net impact is calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents stating they have delayed service and maintenance work from the percent of respondents stating they have done additional maintenance work Customer outlook on maintenance and repair in light of 2nd lockdown1 Net impact2 Nov vs. Sep in “plan for next month” Results of wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
  • 26. McKinsey & Company 26Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility Mobility usage patterns in France and Italy are most affected by the 2nd COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe As of November 12, 2020 EU 2 Significant decrease Significant increase Slight increase Slight decrease x Mobility recovery3, in pp. 4 5 5 8 6 -29 -29 -29 -28 -25 -26 -33 -26 -24 -16 -16 -16 3 1 W1 2 W6 1 W2 W3 2 W4 3 W5 2 -1 6 4 -21 -29 -32 -36 -37 -36 -66 -53 -40 -29 -23 -34 22 2 1 3 W1 2 W2 W3 1 4 W4 2 W5 2 W6 -10 4 5 6 7 4 -20 -25 -27 -29 -29 -31 -60 -50 -33 -23 -19 -35 3 1 2 W1 W5 2 W2 2 W3 W4 2 1 W6 -18 4 5 7 5 -22 -25 -27 -29 -29 -30 -53 -45 -36 -26 -22 -28 W3 3 22 2 2 W1 W2 4 2 W4 W5 2 W6 -7 4 5 7 6 -18 -19 -22 -24 -26 -27 -53 -50 -48 -39 -30 -27 W5W3W2 2 4 W1 2 22 4 2 3 W4 W6 +1 Mobility pattern changes (number and length of trips) since the outbreak of COVID-191 Percent of respondents Currently, 58% of EU consumers traveling less, showing a 7pp. decrease vs. last wave due to the latest lockdowns Respondents’ mobility usage currently most affected in France and Italy 1. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how has your mobility changed since the outbreak of COVID-19? 2. UK, Germany, Italy, and France 3. Total mobility decrease wave 6 vs. wave 5 Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (Jun 16-18), wave 4 (Jul 15-17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
  • 27. McKinsey & Company 27 Walking/biking and micromobility potentially becoming more popular in the modal mix of the “next normal” As of November 12, 2020 Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility 81 60 68 73 78 79 75 81 Return to “normal life” Wave 3 Wave 2 Before crisis Wave 6 Wave 1 Wave 5 Wave 4 -20 -4 35 15 17 18 21 24 22 35 -20 -2 66 61 66 67 67 67 64 73 -3 -6 8 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 -2 -1 7 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 -1 0 8 6 6 5 6 7 7 9 -2 -1 x Mobility decrease, in pp. Mobility usage pre- vs. post-crisis Mobility usage during crisis Respondents expect an increased usage of walking/ biking and micromobility when returning to “normal life” Slight decrease in mobility usage across all major transportation modes after 2nd lockdowns in Europe, but with less magnitude than 1st lockdown Private car Public transport Walking or biking with private bike Micromobility (e.g., e-scooter, e-bike) Car sharing (e.g., ShareNow) Ride hailing (e.g., Uber, Lyft, taxis) 1. Q: Before/today/when you return to “next normal”, how often did/do you/do you expect to use the following modes of transportation? 2. Once or more than once per week, aggregated results from the UK, Germany, Italy, and France Usage of transportation modes on a regular basis1,2 Percent of respondents stating at least weekly Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (Jun 16-18), wave 4 (Jul 15-17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10)
  • 28. McKinsey & Company 28 Change of mode mix before and after COVID-19 shows largest regional variation for public transport As of November 12, 2020 Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility 0.5 0.7 -0.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.2 -2.4 1.1 1.2 5.1 6.2 8.2 5.7 6.0 4.1 0.8 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.4 2.9 0.7 1.0 0 1.2 1.1 3.0 0.8 EU 3 Private car Public transport Walking or biking with private bike Micromobility (e.g., e-scooter, e-bike) Car sharing (e.g., ShareNow) Ride hailing (e.g., Uber, Lyft, taxis) Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (Jun 16-18), wave 4 (Jul 15-17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10) 1. Q: Before/today/when you return to “next normal”, how often did/do you/do you expect to use the following modes of transportation? 2. Mode usage once or more than once per week 3. UK, Germany, Italy, and France Change of transportation modes when returning to “next normal” vs. before COVID-191,2 Delta of responses for return to “next normal” vs. before COVID-19 outbreak, percentage points
  • 29. McKinsey & Company 29Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility Frequency of commuting trips has significantly decreased globally, 2nd lockdown affecting especially France and Italy As of November 12, 2020 13 -12 -12 -13 -14 -18 -14 -17 -66 -63 -60 -49 -38 -38 22 1 W2 43 W1 3 W4W3 8 16 25 8 W5 2 W6 -6 Next normal +4 -19 -17 -20 -16 -17 -17 -11 -36 -33 -25 -19 -20 -21 1 12 7 W2 1 W1 421 2 W4W3 3 1 15 W5 W6 9 -3 Next normal 0 18 11 -23 -21 -24 -23 -25 -26 -13 -56 -48 -37 -31 -25 -30 1 61 1 W2 2 W1 2 2 W3 14 W4 1 W5 14 W6 -3 Next normal -6 -16 -15 -17 -17 -20 -19 -13 -51 -48 -32 -19 -14 -26 551 95 2 W1 W2 1 W3 15 5 W4 1 W5 12 W6 6 -3 Next normal -10 Slight increase Significant increase Significant decrease Slight decrease Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (Jun 16-18), wave 4 (Jul 15-17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10) Change in number of commuting trips during and after the crisis vs. commuting habits before1,2 Percent of respondents 1. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how has the number of trips of your commute changed since the outbreak of COVID-19? 2. Q: After you return to “next normal”, i.e., when a vaccine against COVID-19 is broadly available and the pandemic is defeated, how do you think your commuting habits will be compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak?
  • 30. McKinsey & Company 30Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility Around the world, consumers expect to shift from airplanes and trains for intercity traveling to an increased use of private vehicles As of November 12, 2020 Airplane Train Private vehicle 15 14 18 15 15 -37 -39 -33 -35 -42 -38 -32 14 14 Decreased usageIncreased usage 18 14 18 22 18 18 19 -27 -31 -21 -29 -28 -28 -19 28 25 22 38 27 28 22 -15-10 -9-11 -11-13 -13 Owning a vehicle Not owning a vehicle Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (Jun 16-18), wave 4 (Jul 15-17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10) Change of mode for intercity traveling when returning to “next normal” vs. habits before COVID-19 outbreak1 Percent of respondents2 1. Q: After you return to next normal, how do you think traveling between cities will change compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak? 2. Consumers that have not used this mode of transportation before the COVID-19 outbreak excluded of scope of country
  • 31. McKinsey & Company 31 Risk of infection: shared and public transport are not considered as safe for health, infections became a top priority for the mode choice As of November 12, 2020 Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility 81 9 64 8 5 5 People increasingly use active transport modes such as walking and biking Public transit ridership has fallen significantly Car sharing usage, as all shared mobility modes, dropped significantly “Car as safe space”: people switch to transport modes with low risk of infection What we observe during the pandemic Private car Public transport Walking/ biking3 Shared micro- mobility Ride hailingCar sharing Before the COVID-19 crisis Today 1. Time to destination 2. Price of trip 3. Space and privacy 4. Convenience 5. Congestion 1. Risk of infection 2. Time to destination 3. Space and privacy 4. Convenience 5. Price of trip 50 … percent of respondents would increase mode usage with regular disinfection Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (Jun 16-18), wave 4 (Jul 15-17), wave 5 (Sep 2-4), and wave 6 (Nov 6-10) 1. Q: Which of the following modes of transportation do you consider safe for your health concerning a COVID-19 infection? 2. Aggregated results from the US, the UK, Germany, Italy, France, China, and Japan 3. With private bike 4. For a private trip Top-5 reasons to choose transport mode4 Reasons ranked by number of respondents Modes of transportation considered safe for health, concerning a COVID-19 infection1,2 Percent of respondents
  • 32. McKinsey & Company 32 51 43 29 -22 -27 -37 55-7035-5418-34 Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility Increased importance of direct vehicle access and willingness to expand this to new use cases, especially for younger consumers As of September 21, 2020 By age 26 -14 Increased Decreased 36 24 21 -16 -14 -13 18-34 35-54 55-70 By age NoYes 39 -30 3 3 Results of wave 6 (Nov 6-10) Willingness to expand private vehicles to new use cases2 Percent of vehicle owners Importance of constant access to a private vehicle1 Percent of respondents 1. Q: How has the importance of having constant access to a private vehicle changed since the COVID-19 outbreak? 2. Q: Based on your experience with COVID-19,could you imagine extending your use of private vehicles beyond traveling in the future, (e.g., for consuming via drive-ins for shopping or cinema)? 3. Aggregated results from the UK, Germany, Italy, and France
  • 33. McKinsey & Company 33 Disclaimer McKinsey does not provide legal, medical or other regulated advice or guarantee results. These materials reflect general insight based on information currently available and do not contain all of the information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information has not been generated or independently verified by McKinsey and is inherently uncertain and subject to change. McKinsey has no obligation to update these materials and makes no representation or warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with respect thereto.