- The ongoing COVID-19 crisis poses an enormous challenge for the airline industry, with some airlines already ceasing operations or entering administration. Airlines will focus on reducing capacity, cutting costs, and conserving cash. - Growth in the airline industry in the short to medium term will likely be curtailed as airlines rightsize their operations to align with lower demand. This also provides an opportunity for airlines to fundamentally reexamine their operating models. - While virtual reality can connect people during periods of social distancing, it will not replace the authentic experience of real travel. Technology may help promote new destinations, but personal experiences are not easily replicated virtually.

1. Episode 3
The Return of Travel
22nd April 2020
Stig Williams
Head of International
Partnerships @ Avis Budget
Group
Speakers Moderator
Sergio Merino
Co-founder @ iVisa
Rob Gurney
CEO @ oneworld
Caroline Dal'lin
Director of Business
Development @ Bidroom

2. - Airlines worldwide are losing $1.6 billion per day, according
to an IBIS World report.
Higher prices, complicated paperwork for passengers and
lower capacity?
- Marriott Estimates 23%Drop in 1st Quarter RPR and 2/3rd of
the 701,000 jobs lost in March in the US came from the
hospitality sector.
- Emirates and Dubai airport have introduced COVID-19 test
for passengers with results within 10 minutes. Towards a health
travel certificate?
- Singapore has just extended its lockdown to June 1st, while
France is aiming at opening slowly again from May 11.
Covid-19 context

3. COVID-19 impacts on airline
industry
oneworld CEO Rob Gurney
22 April 2020

4. State of the global airline industry
2
• $314 billion in lost passenger revenue in
2020 (IATA estimate)
• Loss estimates have worsened
significantly since crisis became
widespread over a month ago
• Flights globally reduced by almost 80%
by early April
• Industry “virtually grounded” aside from
US and Asia domestic markets which
have also seen sharp reductions
-113
-252
-314-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
Passengerrevenuelosses,US$billion
Worsening estimates of revenue losses
5-Mar 24-Mar 14-Apr
Data sourced from IATA Economics

5. Impact on US domestic market
3
• While not grounded, significant
impact on US domestic market
• Passenger volumes plummeted
96% earlier in April (Airlines for
America)
• Full or partial stay-at-home
orders in place in all but five US
states
• US airlines have cut capacity but
outpaced by demand
Source: Airlines for America

6. Impact on oneworld member airlines
4
• Significant capacity reductions in both
domestic and international networks to
align with lower demand
• Wide-ranging cost saving measures
implemented to conserve cash
• Entry restrictions in many member airlines’
home countries, including transit traffic
through member hubs

7. Macroeconomic impacts
5
• A range of impacts on 2020 global GDP
have been forecast, ranging from a
contraction of 2.4% to as much as 6%
• Preliminary unemployment data indicate
jobless numbers will rise in coming
months
• IMF estimates that economy will perform
the worst since the Great Depression in
1930s (global GDP shrank 10% from
1929-1932)
Forecastson impact to global GDP in 2020
IMF -3%
S&P Global -2.4%
Oxford Economics -2.8%
Economist Intelligence Unit -2.5%
OECD -4 to -6%
Unemployment data
US 22 million new filings in recent weeks
UK Unemployed expected to rise to 3.4 million from
2.1 million
Germany 150,000 to 200,000 more expected to be
unemployed in upcoming stats release
Australia Unemployment rate expected to rise to 10% in Q2
(5.1% in February)

8. Government responses
6
• Governments have unveiled relief and
stimulus packages including:
- Direct payments to individuals in
certain income groups
- Cash subsidies to employers to pay
salaries
- Loans and loan guarantees
Country Relief/stimuluspackages
announced so far*
% of
2019
GDP
US US$2 trillion 9.3%
UK £390 billion (US$488 billion) 17%
Germany €750 billion (US$ 815 billion) 22%
Australia A$320 billion (US$204 billion) 16%
Hong Kong HK$287.5 billion (US$37.1
billion)
10%
* Constantly changing

9. Airlines’ response
7
• Flexible re-booking policies, fee waivers
• Extension of frequent flyer programme
status and miles expiry
• Relaxed seating policy on board to allow
for social distancing (e.g. blocking of
middle seats)
• Enhanced cleaning procedures onboard
aircraft and at customer touchpoints in
airports
• Modifications to inflight food and
beverage service to reduce contact
Photo: American Airlines

10. Air travel to recover in stages: IATA
8

11. Factors that will influence return to travel
9
• Sentiment among travellers
• Economy
• Government and regulatory policy

12. IATA survey on passenger confidence in travel
10

15. The future of
Land and Air
Travel
Sergio Merino
Co-founder

16. P R E S E N T

17. One of the Most Affected Industries
Air & Travel is the third industry most affected by COVID19
1.Data set includes globall top 3000 companies by market cap in 2019, excluding some subsidiaries, holding companies, companies with
very small free float and companies that have delisted since
Source: Corporate Performance Analytics, S&CF Insights, S&P Global

18. Supply Shock
Airbus Cuts Monthly Production Rates by One-third (Gregory Polck, April 2020)
Boeing Cuts Monthly Production Rates by 40%
Source: AIN Online, 2020. Recovered from: https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2020-04-08/airbus-cuts-monthly-
production-rates-one-third

19. 2021: Estimated Global Restart
Preliminary views on hardest hit sectors based on delayed recovery scenario – subject to change.
Source: HIS Market, McKinsey Global Institute, Subject matter experts, press reports, Corporate Performance
Analytics, S&CF Insights, S&P Capital IQ.

20. P A S T

21. We have been here before
The most resilient economic sector
Source: UNWTO (2020). Healing Solutions for Tourism Challenge. Recovered from:
https://www.unwto.org/healing-solutions-tourism-challenge
7%
Global Exports
4%
Growth in 2019
1 of 10
Jobs worlwide are
in tourism
1.5B
Arrivals 2019
Tourism: 10 years of continuous growth 2010 – 2019

22. F U T U R E

23. Travel WILL
rebound

24. Travelers Sentiment remains hopeful
As long as the destination is not in quarantine
Source: Luggage Hero (2020). Recovered from https://luggagehero.com/covid-19-impacts-travel-demand/

25. C H A N G E S

26. More border control
Health certificates and mandatory medical insurance
Sources: Austria (https://wiki.unece.org/display/CTRBSBC/Austria); Vietnam (https://tokhaiyte.vn/); Thailand
(https://www.bangkokpost.com/travel/1882315/health-certificates-required-of-all-visitors); Germany
(https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-germany-covid-19-immunity-certificates-testing-social-distancing-lockdown-2020-
3?IR=T)
Vietnam Thailand
Germany Austria

27. Travelers will change behavior
In the short term
Source: Luggage Hero (2020). Recovered from https://luggagehero.com/covid-19-impacts-travel-demand/

28. Less restricted &
safer locations
Uncertainty about
future prices
More meaningful experiences
(Decrease on micro-trips)
Domestic travel might be up, at least
initially
Low fares as airlines struggle to get
customers back on board
vs.
High fares due to fewer flight options
Travel may become more purposeful
Different travel motivations
Affected by restrictions, price and purpose of travel
Source: https://www.insider.com/how-coronavirus-will-affect-travel-future-2020-4

29. Hygiene restrictions and
regulations
Adjusting to become
contactless
Limited gatherings will force
companies to innovate
Different behaviors
A more health-conscious world
Sources: https://www.insider.com/how-coronavirus-will-affect-travel-future-2020-4
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3077398/coronavirus-chinese-cinemas-told-close-just-week-after-reopening
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.formula-1-launches-virtual-grand-prix-series-to-replace-postponed-
races.1znLAbPzBbCQPj1IDMeiOi.html

30. Individual health declarations
Contact Tracking vs.
Data Privacy
Integrated
solutions
The role of technology
If used properly it can speed up the back to normal
Sources: https://robbreport.com/gear/personal-technology/covid-19-big-tech-apps-2908811/
https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/25/self-reporting-app-for-covid-19-symptoms-for-uk-research-sees-650k-downloads-in-24-hours/

31. Companies
Key factors to survive during this crisis.
Source:

32. Companies
Key factor to survive during this crisis.
Source:

33. SPEED
ü Restructuring teams and focus on top
talent.
ü Slash non-essential projects.
ü Embrace agility: multidisciplinary teams,
try and fail fast culture.
ü Adjust product for Covid-19 context and
uncertainty
ü Covid19 war-room: constant evaluation
of economic situation, cost-saving
measures and potential actions
DISCIPLINE
ü Went from partly remote to fully remote.
ü Invest for the long term: Revamp
ancillary revenue products
ü Open to partners via API’s
ü Future website acquisitions pipeline &
strategic alliances.
ü Focus on what our strengths to launch
new services
ü Review & Renegotiate payment terms
and contracts
iVisa's best practices
What are we doing today?.

35. Future of Travel

36. Avis Budget Group - A Global Leader
2

37. Our Brands
3

38. COVID-19

39. 5
Impact of COVID-19
https://www.eurocontrol.int/Economics/DailyTrafficVariation-States.html

40. 6
Impact of COVID-19
https://www.eurocontrol.int/Economics/DailyTrafficVariation-States.html
IATA.org

41. Changing the way we are travelling
• Continued social distancing

42. Changing the way we are travelling
• Continued social distancing

43. Changing the way we are travelling
• Continued social distancing

44. Changing the way we are travelling
• Continued social distancing
• Domestic Travel / Staycation

45. Changing the way we are travelling
• Continued social distancing
• Domestic Travel / Staycation
• More use of self-service

46. Future of Car Rental after COVID-19

47. Market Leading Innovation
13

48. 14
Innovation Expertise
Leading the way in car rental
experience through mobile
• Avis App and 10 years’ experience
with Zipcar
• Piloting keyless entry and ignition
via Mobile App
• Our entire fleet connected by 2021

49. 15
Autonomous Cars

50. 16
Thank you!
Stig.Williams@ABG.com

52. Episode 3
The Return of Travel
22nd April 2020
How do you see the future of flying when, in the worst case, some airlines won’t survive
this crisis? What will be the influence of this on airlines’ policies and the reconstruction of
the industry?
Rob Gurney
CEO @ oneworld
The ongoing crisis is an enormous challenge for the airline industry,
and some airlines (Virgin Australia, Flybe and Air Mauritius) have
already closed or entered administration in recent months as a result
of COVID-19 and other pre-existing difficulties. Faced with this trading
environment, airlines will be focused on reducing capacity, trimming
expenditure and conserving cash. Growth in the airline industry in the
short to medium term will likely be curtailed for a while as airlines
continue to rightsize their operations to align with lower demand.
Also, it is an opportunity to look more fundamentally at operating
models.
Post-webinar QnA:

53. Episode 3
The Return of Travel
22nd April 2020
Do you think technology like VR will be replacing "real travel"? Is digital travel a new sector
with new customers or will it steal customers from the current travel sector?
Rob Gurney
CEO @ oneworld
Travel will very much remain among the experiences people pursue
and aspire to. The in-person experience is not easily replaceable by
virtual reality, as there is still value in face-to-face interaction.
Technology enables connection during a time when widespread
social distancing orders are in place, but virtual travel will not be
considered a viable alternative by travellers seeking an authentic and
personal experience.
Post-webinar QnA:

54. Episode 3
The Return of Travel
22nd April 2020
Do you think technology like VR will be replacing "real travel"? Is digital travel a new sector
with new customers or will it steal customers from the current travel sector?
I believe VR can enhance the opportunity to sell in new destinations
and also for customers to make preparations to what they would like
to see. VR will not replace "real travel".
Post-webinar QnA:
Stig Williams
Head of International
Partnerships @ Avis Budget
Group
How do you rate the importance of sustainability with regard to car
rental? Will it not be the customers priority anymore due to COVID?
At Avis we are offering our customers with a wide variety
of vehicles that are environmentally friendly, so customers do have a
choice.

55. Episode 3
The Return of Travel
22nd April 2020
Do you think technology like VR will be replacing "real travel"? Is digital travel a new sector
with new customers or will it steal customers from the current travel sector?
I think we will see more and more of these startups . They can offer
amazing experiences, but real traveling is hard to emulate. In total
lockdown situations, you do what you can (virtual tour of the Louvre
for example), but that won't replace a real visit to Paris where you can
visit the museum and have a crepe right afterwards.
Post-webinar QnA:
Being under such financial pressure, will airlines, especially the
legacy carriers, be able to provide service and safety like they did
before the crisis? And will fears for this influence traveller
sentiment?
I see supply reduction in the short term, and slow recovery over the
next 3 years.
Sergio Merino
Co-founder @ iVisa