Origin and Destination ( O-D) Study. defined all types very well with advantages and disadvantages. Introduction of OD, Objective of OD Study
Information required for OD
OD Survey Types
Methodology
Road Side Interview Method
License Plate Method
Tag on Car method
Home Interview method
postal method
online survey method
commercial and public vehilce method survey
OD MATRIX
Desire line diagram and Flow Line diagram
Conclusion and Reference.
Deriving on-trip route choices of truck drivers by utilizing Bluetooth data,...SalilSharma26
This paper models on-trip route choices of the truck drivers. Second, we assess the inefficiencies of those routing decisions. This paper utilizes Bluetooth data, loop detector data, and variable message sign data to model the route choices of truck drivers. The trucks are inferred from Bluetooth data by applying a Gaussian mixture model-based clustering technique. We apply both a binary logit model and a mixed logit model to derive the route choices of truck drivers on a case study between the port of Rotterdam and hinterland in the Netherlands. The model results indicate truck drivers significantly value travel distance, instantaneous travel time and lane closure information en-route. The estimate of travel distance varies significantly among truck drivers. While 38 percent of truck drivers do not take the shortest time path, 48 percent of truck drivers do not choose the system-optimal path.
The International Journal of Engineering and Science (The IJES)theijes
The International Journal of Engineering & Science is aimed at providing a platform for researchers, engineers, scientists, or educators to publish their original research results, to exchange new ideas, to disseminate information in innovative designs, engineering experiences and technological skills. It is also the Journal's objective to promote engineering and technology education. All papers submitted to the Journal will be blind peer-reviewed. Only original articles will be published.
Origin and Destination ( O-D) Study. defined all types very well with advantages and disadvantages. Introduction of OD, Objective of OD Study
Information required for OD
OD Survey Types
Methodology
Road Side Interview Method
License Plate Method
Tag on Car method
Home Interview method
postal method
online survey method
commercial and public vehilce method survey
OD MATRIX
Desire line diagram and Flow Line diagram
Conclusion and Reference.
Deriving on-trip route choices of truck drivers by utilizing Bluetooth data,...SalilSharma26
This paper models on-trip route choices of the truck drivers. Second, we assess the inefficiencies of those routing decisions. This paper utilizes Bluetooth data, loop detector data, and variable message sign data to model the route choices of truck drivers. The trucks are inferred from Bluetooth data by applying a Gaussian mixture model-based clustering technique. We apply both a binary logit model and a mixed logit model to derive the route choices of truck drivers on a case study between the port of Rotterdam and hinterland in the Netherlands. The model results indicate truck drivers significantly value travel distance, instantaneous travel time and lane closure information en-route. The estimate of travel distance varies significantly among truck drivers. While 38 percent of truck drivers do not take the shortest time path, 48 percent of truck drivers do not choose the system-optimal path.
The International Journal of Engineering and Science (The IJES)theijes
The International Journal of Engineering & Science is aimed at providing a platform for researchers, engineers, scientists, or educators to publish their original research results, to exchange new ideas, to disseminate information in innovative designs, engineering experiences and technological skills. It is also the Journal's objective to promote engineering and technology education. All papers submitted to the Journal will be blind peer-reviewed. Only original articles will be published.
(Slides) A Method for Pedestrian Position Estimation using Inter-Vehicle Comm...Naoki Shibata
http://ito-lab.naist.jp/themes/ITS/pdfs/2-1/1.pdf
Sawa, Y., Kitani, T., Shibata, N., Yasumoto, K., Ito, M.:
A Method for Pedestrian Position Estimation using Inter-Vehicle Communication, Proc. of the 3rd IEEE Workshop on Automotive Networking and Applications (AutoNet 2008), pp. 1 - 6, DOI:10.1109/GLOCOMW.2008.ECP.57 (Dec 2008).
In this paper, we propose a method for detecting the positions of pedestrians by cooperation of multiple cars with directional antennas to support drivers for pedestrian safety. In the method, each pedestrian carries a device which periodically transmits a beacon with a unique ID, and each car passing near the pedestrian receives the beacon by a directional antenna and measures the distance and the angle of arrival.
We assume the distribution of the measurement errors to be a normal distribution, and the system calculates the existence probabilities of each pedestrian at each point. By exchanging information of the probabilities between cars, the area with high existence probability is narrowed down. In this paper, we first describe the situations where detecting positions of pedestrians greatly contribute to pedestrian safety, and then we describe the probability model used in our method, the method for calculating existence probabilities from information from multiple cars, and the protocol for exchanging the probability information between cars. We evaluated our method on QualNet simulator, and confirmed that the positions can be detected accurately enough for practical uses.
This presentation talks about the process of Traffic & Transportation surveys, the bases of delineating Traffic Analysis Zones and the various surveys required to be carried out to understand the traffic behavior of the city.
Using sensors in OEM-cars for detecting and updating infrastructure and geographical information for speed maps, sustainability and self-driving cars (HD Maps).
Real time path planning based on hybrid-vanet-enhanced transportation systemShakas Technologies
Real-time path planning can efficiently relieve traffic congestion in urban scenarios. However, how to design an efficient path-planning algorithm to achieve a globally optimal vehicle traffic control still remains a challenging problem, particularly when we take drivers’ individual preferences into consideration
A Framework for Dynamic Traffic Monitoring using Vehicular Ad-hoc Networkshadiarbabi
PhD Defense Presentation
Hadi Arbabi
PhD in Computer Science
Department Of Computer Science
Old Dominion University
Advisor: Dr. Michele C. Weigle
M.S. in Computer Science
Old Dominion University, May 2007 Advisor: Dr. Stephan Olariu
B.S. in Computer Engineering
Shiraz University , June 2001
With increasing vehicle size in the luxury segment and crunching parking space, traffic congestion is increasingly becoming an alarming concern in almost all major cities around the world. Burning about a million barrels of the world’s oil every day, and considering cities are turning urban without a well-planned, convenience-driven retreat from the cars, these problems will only worsen.
Smart Parking systems is one of the latest disruptive technologies that help address this problem by generating real time contextual information about the available parking spaces particular geographical area to accommodate vehicles low-cost sensors, mobility-enabled automated payment systems, real-time data collection, Smart Parking systems is designed to aid drivers to precisely find a spot.
What’s more, Smart Parking also minimizes emissions from vehicle in urban centers when deployed as a system by decreasing the dependency of people; unnecessarily circling the blocks trying to identify parking space. Apart from this green cause, by employing a host of technologies such as M2M telematics, Smart Parking helps resolve one of the biggest problems when driving around in urban areas – which is illegal parking and identifying free parking space.
Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) can be defined as the application of advanced information and communications technology to surface transportation in order to achieve enhanced safety and mobility while reducing the environmental impact of transportation. The addition of wireless communications offers a powerful and transformative opportunity to establish transportation connectivity that further enables cooperative systems and dynamic data exchange using a broad range of advanced systems and technologies.
(Slides) A Method for Pedestrian Position Estimation using Inter-Vehicle Comm...Naoki Shibata
http://ito-lab.naist.jp/themes/ITS/pdfs/2-1/1.pdf
Sawa, Y., Kitani, T., Shibata, N., Yasumoto, K., Ito, M.:
A Method for Pedestrian Position Estimation using Inter-Vehicle Communication, Proc. of the 3rd IEEE Workshop on Automotive Networking and Applications (AutoNet 2008), pp. 1 - 6, DOI:10.1109/GLOCOMW.2008.ECP.57 (Dec 2008).
In this paper, we propose a method for detecting the positions of pedestrians by cooperation of multiple cars with directional antennas to support drivers for pedestrian safety. In the method, each pedestrian carries a device which periodically transmits a beacon with a unique ID, and each car passing near the pedestrian receives the beacon by a directional antenna and measures the distance and the angle of arrival.
We assume the distribution of the measurement errors to be a normal distribution, and the system calculates the existence probabilities of each pedestrian at each point. By exchanging information of the probabilities between cars, the area with high existence probability is narrowed down. In this paper, we first describe the situations where detecting positions of pedestrians greatly contribute to pedestrian safety, and then we describe the probability model used in our method, the method for calculating existence probabilities from information from multiple cars, and the protocol for exchanging the probability information between cars. We evaluated our method on QualNet simulator, and confirmed that the positions can be detected accurately enough for practical uses.
This presentation talks about the process of Traffic & Transportation surveys, the bases of delineating Traffic Analysis Zones and the various surveys required to be carried out to understand the traffic behavior of the city.
Using sensors in OEM-cars for detecting and updating infrastructure and geographical information for speed maps, sustainability and self-driving cars (HD Maps).
Real time path planning based on hybrid-vanet-enhanced transportation systemShakas Technologies
Real-time path planning can efficiently relieve traffic congestion in urban scenarios. However, how to design an efficient path-planning algorithm to achieve a globally optimal vehicle traffic control still remains a challenging problem, particularly when we take drivers’ individual preferences into consideration
A Framework for Dynamic Traffic Monitoring using Vehicular Ad-hoc Networkshadiarbabi
PhD Defense Presentation
Hadi Arbabi
PhD in Computer Science
Department Of Computer Science
Old Dominion University
Advisor: Dr. Michele C. Weigle
M.S. in Computer Science
Old Dominion University, May 2007 Advisor: Dr. Stephan Olariu
B.S. in Computer Engineering
Shiraz University , June 2001
With increasing vehicle size in the luxury segment and crunching parking space, traffic congestion is increasingly becoming an alarming concern in almost all major cities around the world. Burning about a million barrels of the world’s oil every day, and considering cities are turning urban without a well-planned, convenience-driven retreat from the cars, these problems will only worsen.
Smart Parking systems is one of the latest disruptive technologies that help address this problem by generating real time contextual information about the available parking spaces particular geographical area to accommodate vehicles low-cost sensors, mobility-enabled automated payment systems, real-time data collection, Smart Parking systems is designed to aid drivers to precisely find a spot.
What’s more, Smart Parking also minimizes emissions from vehicle in urban centers when deployed as a system by decreasing the dependency of people; unnecessarily circling the blocks trying to identify parking space. Apart from this green cause, by employing a host of technologies such as M2M telematics, Smart Parking helps resolve one of the biggest problems when driving around in urban areas – which is illegal parking and identifying free parking space.
Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) can be defined as the application of advanced information and communications technology to surface transportation in order to achieve enhanced safety and mobility while reducing the environmental impact of transportation. The addition of wireless communications offers a powerful and transformative opportunity to establish transportation connectivity that further enables cooperative systems and dynamic data exchange using a broad range of advanced systems and technologies.
How to Design an On-Demand Transit ServiceGurjap Birring
There have been hundreds of on-demand transit projects deployed around the world, but are transit agencies designing them for success? Pantonium’s team will discuss various approaches to designing an on-demand transit service based on our experiences deploying projects around North America and our observations from other similar projects.
Camila Balbontin - Do preferences for BRT and LRT change as a voter, citizen,...BRTCoE
Camila Balbontin is a Postgraduate Research Fellow at the Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (ITLS) of University of Sydney. In February 2018, she completed her PhD under the supervision of Professor David Hensher where she focused on integrating decision heuristics and behavioural refinements into travel choice models. She was awarded the ITLS prize for Research Excellence in Transport or Logistics 2017. Camila also holds a bachelor degree in the field of Civil Engineering with a diploma in Industrial Engineering and in Transportation and Logistics from Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. She did her MSc degree at the same university under the supervision of Professor Juan de Dios Ortúzar. Her MSc thesis estimated the valuation of households and neighbourhood attributes in the centre of Santiago.
As a Postgraduate Research Fellow, her main focus is choice modelling and travel behaviour. She is currently working on projects related to the BRT Centre of Excellence, business location decisions, hybrid modelling, value uplift, among others.
Working Paper - http://sydney.edu.au/business/itls/research/publications/working_papers
Mobility Pricing: How to Harness Mobility Pricing to Reduce Congestion, Promo...WSP
Acting as a technical analysis lead for the Metro Vancouver Mobility Pricing Independent Commission, WSP experts studied the use of congestion charging and mobility pricing for the Metro Vancouver Regional District.
An eight-month study ensued and resulted in a crucial set of data categorized by geography, time of day, and pricing level. The goals of the study remained: reducing congestion, generating additional revenue for the governing body, and promoting fairness.
Once you view the presentation, see WSP.com for additional information, including the Metro Vancouver Mobility Study and full Congestion Charging Report:
https://www.wsp.com/en-CA/insights/ca-four-reasons-why-cities-should-consider-congestion-charging
The Swiss national stated preference study on transport behavior 2015Antonin Danalet
Every five years, the Swiss Federal Offices for Spatial Development (ARE) and Statistics (BFS) carry out the Mobility and Transport Microcensus (MTMC), a one-day CATI diary survey representative of the Swiss population in terms of socio-economics and trip characteristics. In the year 2015 (for the second time after 2010), a Stated Preference (SP) survey linked to the MTMC was carried out. Respondents selected and recruited during the MCMT interviews were asked to answer a follow-up paper and pencil questionnaire. This later survey instrument included items from a combination of mode and route choice experiments based on one of the trips the respondents had reported during the MTMC CATI interview. The data, in combination with the Revealed Preference (RP) source of the MTMC, are primarily used in transport policy projects and for estimating mode and route choice models. Thus, they allow updates of regional and national transport models to current behavioral tendencies, and serve to obtain valuations of supply variables (travel times, etc.) to be used in cost-benefit analyses. The SP methodology allows for an assessment of respondents’ behavioral changes relative to changes in several different areas of the transportation systems. In addition, surveying information with similar SP-instruments in the years 2010 und 2015 allows an analysis of changes in peoples’ preferences and willingness to pay between the two years. The goals were:
1) design and carry out an SP survey that would closely resemble the MTMC in regards to the trip characteristics (mode, purpose, length) as well as the spatial and socio-economic properties of the respondents. This is of importance as the MCMT-survey population itself is with around 60´000 respondents representative for the Swiss residential population.
2) offer at the same time enough variation in all attributes in order to estimate significant parameters in the ensuing choice models and thus synchronize two important data sources commonly used for constructing and calibrating transport models. For the latter reason, priority was given to longer trips and trip purposes that have lower shares in the RP data.
3) design an SP experiment, which includes familiar and realistic situations for the respondents to collect reliable information. Filling out a survey based on their own RP-trips was expected to increase respondents´ interest, encourage them to imagine the presented alternatives, and reduce fatigue effects. As SP surveys induce substantial amounts of response burden by asking participants to imagine fictive situations and report their decisions, these issues are of high importance.
4) allow an analysis of the evolution of behavioral preferences as the SP experiments from the years 2010 and 2015 are comparable.
Istanbul IETT Professional Development Workshop, #2 of 6_Transit PlanningVTPI
Istanbul IETT Professional Development Workshop, #2 of 6, Transit Planning
Presenter: Todd Litman, Victoria Transport Policy Institute
Assistant: Aysha Cohen, UCLA Institute of Transportation Studies Scholar
Presentation Date: June 14, 2015
Business Fleet Africa is an innovative and target market-focused digital magazine aimed at one of the most important vehicle buying sectors in the local market, be they users of cars, vans, light commercials, medium and heavy trucks.
Business Fleet Africa is the ideal route to connect with senior executives and decision-makers in the South African business vehicle and fleet operations environment.
It is the first and only magazine of its kind in South Africa that focuses solely on vehicles and the manner in which they are used for business purposes.
Business Fleet Africa is an innovative and target market-focused digital magazine aimed at one of the most important vehicle buying sectors in the local market, be they users of cars, vans, light commercials, medium and heavy trucks.
Business Fleet Africa is the ideal route to connect with senior executives and decision-makers in the South African business vehicle and fleet operations environment.
It is the first and only magazine of its kind in South Africa that focuses solely on vehicles and the manner in which they are used for business purposes.
Business Fleet Africa is an innovative and target market-focused digital magazine aimed at one of the most important vehicle buying sectors in the local market, be they users of cars, vans, light commercials, medium and heavy trucks.
Business Fleet Africa is the ideal route to connect with senior executives and decision-makers in the South African business vehicle and fleet operations environment.
It is the first and only magazine of its kind in South Africa that focuses solely on vehicles and the manner in which they are used for business purposes.
Business Fleet Africa is an innovative and target market-focused digital magazine aimed at one of the most important vehicle buying sectors in the local market, be they users of cars, vans, light commercials, medium and heavy trucks.
Business Fleet Africa is the ideal route to connect with senior executives and decision-makers in the South African business vehicle and fleet operations environment.
It is the first and only magazine of its kind in South Africa that focuses solely on vehicles and the manner in which they are used for business purposes.
Business Fleet Africa is an innovative and target market-focused digital magazine aimed at one of the most important vehicle buying sectors in the local market, be they users of cars, vans, light commercials, medium and heavy trucks.
Business Fleet Africa is the ideal route to connect with senior executives and decision-makers in the South African business vehicle and fleet operations environment.
It is the first and only magazine of its kind in South Africa that focuses solely on vehicles and the manner in which they are used for business purposes.
Business Fleet Africa is an innovative and target market-focused digital magazine aimed at one of the most important vehicle buying sectors in the local market, be they users of cars, vans, light commercials, medium and heavy trucks.
Business Fleet Africa is the ideal route to connect with senior executives and decision-makers in the South African business vehicle and fleet operations environment.
It is the first and only magazine of its kind in South Africa that focuses solely on vehicles and the manner in which they are used for business purposes.
The October 2022 issue of Business Fleet Africa.
Business Fleet Africa is an innovative and target market-focused digital magazine aimed at one of the most important vehicle buying sectors in the local market, be they users of cars, vans, light commercials, medium and heavy trucks.
Business Fleet Africa is the ideal route to connect with senior executives and decision-makers in the South African business vehicle and fleet operations environment.
It is the first and only magazine of its kind in South Africa that focuses solely on vehicles and the manner in which they are used for business purposes.
Delivered by Mr Coenie Vermaak, CEO of the Electronic Toll Collection company at a transport forum session in South Africa on road funding and economic development.
Delivered by acting CEO of the Road Freight Association, Gavin Kelly during a ‘Road Funding in South Africa - Feedback from Operators’ event held in Midrand, Johannesburg.
Road funding from a freight forwarding and logistics perspectiveTristan Wiggill
Presented by Ms Olga Mashila during the 3rd Transport Forum Working Group - ‘Road Funding in South Africa - Feedback from Operators’ held in Midrand, Johannesburg.
E-tolls: The Impact on Development in GautengTristan Wiggill
A presentation by Coenie Vermaak, CEO of Electronic Toll Collections (ETC). Delivered during a Transport Forum Special Interest Group 'Roads and the Economy' event in Johannesburg, South Africa on 14 February 2019.
Transport and the economy: Understanding the relationship...and the dangersTristan Wiggill
A presentation by Professor Stephan Krygsman. Delivered during a Transport Forum Special Interest Group 'Roads and the Economy' event in Johannesburg, South Africa on 14 February 2019.
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The Future of National Roads: The 2030 Roads Plan and a Sustainable Funding M...Tristan Wiggill
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Beneficiaries of an optimally designed transportation system Tristan Wiggill
Presented by Mr. Francois Meyer, General Manager Long-Term Planning, Transnet SOC Ltd during the Roads and Economy Transport Forum held on 14 February 2019.
A presentation by Mr Stefan Neubrech, principal of Infrastructure Advisory at Aurecon, South Africa. Delivered during a Transport Forum Special Interest Group event in Pretoria on 6 December 2018.
The Octavia range embodies the design trend of the Škoda brand: a fusion of
aesthetics, safety and practicality. Whether you see the car as a whole or step
closer and explore its unique features, the Octavia range radiates with the
harmony of functionality and emotion
Your VW's camshaft position sensor is crucial for engine performance. Signs of failure include engine misfires, difficulty starting, stalling at low speeds, reduced fuel efficiency, and the check engine light. Prompt inspection and replacement can prevent further damage and keep your VW running smoothly.
What Could Cause The Headlights On Your Porsche 911 To Stop WorkingLancer Service
Discover why your Porsche 911 headlights might flicker out unexpectedly. From aging bulbs to electrical gremlins and moisture mishaps, we're delving into the reasons behind the blackout. Stay tuned to illuminate the road ahead and ensure your lights shine bright for safer journeys.
Ever been troubled by the blinking sign and didn’t know what to do?
Here’s a handy guide to dashboard symbols so that you’ll never be confused again!
Save them for later and save the trouble!
Learn why monitoring your Mercedes' Exhaust Back Pressure (EBP) sensor is crucial. Understand its role in engine performance and emission reduction. Discover five warning signs of EBP sensor failure, from loss of power to increased emissions. Take action promptly to avoid costly repairs and maintain your Mercedes' reliability and efficiency.
How To Fix The Key Not Detected Issue In Mercedes CarsIntegrity Motorcar
Experiencing a "Key Not Detected" problem in your Mercedes? Don’t take it for granted. Go through this presentation to find out the exact nature of the issue you are dealing with. Have your vehicle checked by a certified professional if necessary.
Fleet management these days is next to impossible without connected vehicle solutions. Why? Well, fleet trackers and accompanying connected vehicle management solutions tend to offer quite a few hard-to-ignore benefits to fleet managers and businesses alike. Let’s check them out!
Things to remember while upgrading the brakes of your carjennifermiller8137
Upgrading the brakes of your car? Keep these things in mind before doing so. Additionally, start using an OBD 2 GPS tracker so that you never miss a vehicle maintenance appointment. On top of this, a car GPS tracker will also let you master good driving habits that will let you increase the operational life of your car’s brakes.
What Are The Immediate Steps To Take When The VW Temperature Light Starts Fla...Import Motorworks
Learn how to respond when the red temperature light flashes in your VW with this presentation. From checking coolant levels to seeking professional help, follow these steps promptly to prevent engine damage and ensure safety on the road.
What Are The Immediate Steps To Take When The VW Temperature Light Starts Fla...
Are we giving BRT passengers what they want?
1. Are we giving BRT
passengers what they want?
User preference and market
segmentation in Johannesburg
Christo Venter
Dept of Civil Engineering
University of Pretoria
SATC July 2016
2. What do passengers (think they) want?
How does this differ across user groups?
What does this tell us about BRT design?
Grounded in actual BRT experience (RP & SP)
Mode captivity
Advanced modelling
3. 1. Data
2. Market segmentation
3. Choice model estimation
4. Implications for BRT design
4. 1. Data
- CAPI face-to-face surveys
- N= 1,208
(10,872 SP observations)
- All modes excl walking
5. 1. Data: Survey approach
5
Personal &
demographic
information
Mode access &
satisfaction
Revealed Preference
data: recent, frequent
trip
Stated preference
experiment:
Reference trip
(current mode)
vs
BRT alternative
7. 1. Data: Survey Design
Attribute Levels
Mode constant (current mode) Car, Gautrain, Taxi, Bus, BRT, Train
Number of transfers (PT only) No transfers; 1 transfer
Travel cost -20%; current; +20%
In-vehicle travel time -20%; current; +20%
Walk time to PT -50%; current; +50%
Wait time for PT -50%; current; +50%
Walk quality (BRT questionnaires
only)
Good (paved sidewalk & lighting);
Poor (no paved pavement or lighting)
Feeder mode (BRT & taxi
questionnaires only)
Walk to BRT; complementary bus to
BRT; taxi to BRT
7
10. 2. Market segmentation
10
Captives
Car captives
(car users with no PT
alternative at present)
Lifestyle
captives
(car users unwilling
to use PT under any
circumstances)
Availability
captives
(car users willing to
consider PT if
available in future –
become choosers)
PT captives
(PT users with no car
alternative at present)
All travellers
Choosers
(PT and car users with
both options at present)
NMT captives
(NMT users with no other
alternative at present)
11. 2. Market segmentation results
3 August 201611
Motorised modes
(PT & car)
2,336,029
(100%)
Car captives
644,424
(27%)
PT captives
1,183,839
(51%)
Choosers
507,765
(22%)
Lifestyle car captives
383,571
(16%)
Availability car captives
260,852
(11%)
POTENTIAL
BRT MARKET
13. 3. Mode choice model estimation
• Combined RP & SP data
– SP gives best indication of trade-offs between
attributes, e.g. time vs cost
– RP gives best information on current valuation of
mode attributes
• Reliability, comfort, safety, image, …?
• Separate coefficients for different captivity
groups
• Mixed logit used because of:
1. Correlations due to repeated observations for same
individual
2. Possibility of taste heterogeneity (random parameters)
13
14. VARIABLE UNIT
AVAIL CARCAP &
CHOOSERS PT CAPTIVES
BUS -0.9339
BRT (Reference) 0.0000
CAR +1.7641 --
GAUTR +19.7326
TAXI -0.9175
TRAIN +0.1082
COST Rands -0.1667 -0.0697
IN-VEH TIME Minutes -0.0050
WALK TIME START OF TRIP Minutes -0.0144
WAITING TIME Minutes -0.0072 -0.0195
SEAT AVAILABLE ON BRT* 1=Yes 0.0264
NO OF TRANSFERS Number -0.0914
14
3. Mode choice model estimation
Estimated (scaled) coefficients
Significant coefficients shown in bold
Scale parameter 0.3009
Log-likelihood = -4077.4
McFadden R2 = 0.66
Likelihood ratio test: Chi-squared=15742 (p-value= 0.000)
16. 4. Implications: WTP
3 August 201616
Willingness-to-pay measure
WTP: PT
captives
WTP: Choosers &
Availability car
captives
In-vehicle travel time (R/hour)
Walk time at start of trip (R/hour)
Waiting time (R/hour)
Value of each transfer
R4.30
R12.39
R16.78
R1.31
R5.98
R17.21
R8.56
R1.82
Willingness-to-pay: Trading off time for money
e.g. Value of in-vehicle travel time (IVT) =
𝛽𝐼𝑉𝑇
𝛽 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡
17. VARIABLE UNIT
AVAIL CARCAP &
CHOOSERS PT CAPTIVES
BUS -0.9339
BRT (Reference) 0.0000
CAR +1.7641 --
GAUTR +19.7326
TAXI -0.9175
TRAIN +0.1082
COST Rands -0.1667 -0.0697
IN-VEH TIME Minutes -0.0050
WALK TIME START OF TRIP Minutes -0.0144
WAITING TIME Minutes -0.0072 -0.0195
SEAT AVAILABLE ON BRT* 1=Yes 0.0264
NO OF TRANSFERS Number -0.0914
17
4. Implications: Mode constants
Estimated (scaled) coefficients
Significant coefficients shown in bold
Scale parameter 0.3009
Log-likelihood = -4077.4
McFadden R2 = 0.66
Likelihood ratio test: Chi-squared=15742 (p-value= 0.000)
BRTBUS (GAUTRAIN)
0.00-0.93
TAXI
-0.92 (+19.73)
CAR
+1.76
TRAIN
18. 18
4. Implications: Utility differences
Qualitative
factors,
73%
Travel cost,
26%
In-veh
time, 7%
Walk &
wait, 7%
% of actual
utility
differences
(BRT vs taxis)
explained
by…
20. 5. Conclusions
• Only about 25% of current car users are
“lost” to a good BRT
– Demand exists, but sensitive to BRT offer
• All other (potential) passengers value
short walks and waits more highly than
trunk speed
– Focus on dense supporting network rather
than many infrastructure-heavy trunks
– Keeping fares low is very important
– Transfers OK, but limit fare penalty
20
21. 5. Conclusions
• Choosers (people with a car available) are
willing to pay slightly more for better services
– Differentiated premium services?
• Qualitative factors (reliability, safety,
convenience?) are very important choice
drivers
– BRT competes more effectively on these than on
cost/time
– Need to understand better
– Protect and improve operating practices
• Conventional SP overstates value of time
21
24. 4. Implications: Utility differences
Average value of service
variable Average size of term (β.x)
TAXI BRT TAXI BRT difference
% of
difference
Alternative
specific constant
(ASC)
-- -- -0.918 0.000 0.918 73%
Travel cost
(Rands) R 18.72 R 13.93 -1.304 -0.970 0.334 26%
In-vehicle travel
time (minutes) 46.0 min 28.8 min -0.230 -0.144 0.086 7%
Number of
transfers 0.34 0.23 -0.031 -0.021 0.010 1%
Walk time at
start of trip
(minutes) 7.5 min 10.3 min -0.109 -0.148 0.039 3%
Waiting time
(minutes) 9.1 min 11.5 min -0.178 -0.224 0.046 4%
3 August 201624
Editor's Notes
Point of departure: We’ve been implementing IPTN systems now for 8 years already. Fact that we have running systems is an opportunity to take stock, ask what have we learnt, what have we done right and what can we do better?
Experience indicates that we can do indeed do things better. By and large, IPTNs have been complex and slow to implement, come at a higher cost than initially hoped, and have delivered lower ridership and benefits than initially thought. Why? One of possibilities is that we understand passengers less well than we think, and that our models tend to make us believe.
CoJ has been engaged in updating strategic PT network over last 3 years – took opportunity to ask these questions about user preference, in process of developing advanced mode choice model for use in planning the next phases of BRT.
We’ve been doing user preference studies for most of our recent pubic transport planning, but this is different in terms of:
Grounded in experience of actual BRT users (using revealed and stated preference)
Focus on understanding mode captivity, people’s ability and willingness to consider new modes
Used more advanced data collection and econometric techniques to help with some issues.
Sampled according to stratified random – geographical clustering.
About a fifth of sample was current BRT users, while many others in areas where BRT is currently operating.
(Deliberately oversampled in higher income areas as we were interested in willingness of that market to switch to BRT. Corrected during model estimation process).
BRT alternative automatically constructed as variations around reference trip – so-called pivot design. Thus preserved actual choice situation, rather than purely hypothetical choice which often bedevils SP results.
Explain BRT option, but helped that most people were already familiar with characteristics. Further contributed to realism of choice.
Tested these attributes. Not all in every game – 3 or 4 max. 9 replication per person.
Necessitated use of tablet computers, programmed to generate options on the fly. For instance, this example, taxi user that told us in first part of the interview, for most recent trip to work SAY, …
Made a priori decision to segment the market according to degree of choice that people have. Based on hypothesis that people behave differently when choosing, depending on what they are used to, particularly how much choice they have had in the past.
This leads us to differentiate between captive and choice travellers – captives have only limited set of options available.
Car captives (…), PT captives, walk captives
But this leads to problem of how enduring these categories are – particularly, some people who are currently car captive might become un-captive in future – say new BRT line comes close enough to their house that they now have that option. Would they continue to use only car? So we subdivided captives into two groups, namely lifestyle car captives, and availability car captives.
Survey allowed us to identify people in each group, based on current mode, what alternatives they had available for that trip (if any), and whether or not they were willing to switch to BRT option at all during SP game. If not, and they were current car captives, then defined as lifestyle captives.
We estimated models to predict people into each of these categories and allow us to expand it up to COJ using 2014 household survey data. Results:
Of the 2.3 million daily motorised trips in the COJ, about half are captive to public transport – made without the option of a car. Just more than a quarter are classified as car captive trips – so 1 in 4 motorised trips are currently made without the (perceived) alternative of public transport available. The remaining 22% of trips are classified as chooser trips. It follows that, of trips where the car is available (chooser plus car captive trips), just more than half feel they have no alternative but to drive.
However present car captives are not all persistently opposed to using public transport. About 4 out of every 10 car captives are classified as availability captive – these quarter of a million car users would be willing to use good public transport (BRT) options, should such options become available to them. Of course significant differences spatially – some areas captives are much more concentrated.
All in all the news is actually good: 84% of trips are potential market for BRT, PROVIDED service that is offered is sufficiently attractive. What is sufficiently attractive? That is what the next step of the analysis tried to find out: SP
SP: How do people trade-off travel time with cost, for instance, because experiment was designed that way.
RP: How do people value all those other things that are hard to specify, qualitative aspects like reliability, comfort, safety, image. Because people vote with their feet – used actual choice made previous trip to estimate Alternative Specific Constants (with some scaling)
Separate coefficients for different captivity segments – to allow for differences in way people trade off across different groups.
Mixed logit: more advanced model specification that addresses some of classical problems of estimating SP data, including correlations in error terms across individuals, and possibility that tastes can vary across sample, allowed for by estimating some coefficients not as fixed parameters but as random parameters. In this case as normal variates.
Model is highly significant
Significant coefficients estimated for all service variables, but not for all modes
Some coefficients differ between captivity groups and others do not. For instance, choice users have (more negative) cost coefficient, meaning higher willingness to pay for improvements.
Not easy to interpret, so let’s look at specific implications in terms of what people want and what we offer them.
Willingness to pay = how people trade off deterioration in one variable for improvement in another. Estimated from ratio of coefficients, e.g. VOT.
Few things to note:
Most important = VOT estimates are quite low, much lower than most previous studies in Gauteng. In particular, people value savings in travel time at between R4 and R6 – this is on average for all users. In line with values for LOW INCOME used in Gauteng Integrated Master Plan model, for instance, … OK, this excludes people who are lifestyle captives who might have higher VOT, but point is that on average those who could use BRT, are not willing or (more likely, able), to pay high fares in exchange for fast buses.
Secondly, the VOT is not a fixed value but varies across the population. In this case, people with car alternatives (choosers) are slightly more willing to pay for speed on average. Also remember that the VOT really varies according to the normal distribution. So there are niches of users with high values of time, so it might make sense to provide faster services at a premium price – express services – in some areas with lots of these choosers. We might be able to attract more people AND improve revenue if we differentiate our services better.
Thirdly, people value short walk times and wait times much higher than short travel times. This is in accordance with the literature. But have we taken it to heart? A heavily corridor-oriented BRT strategy relies on higher frequencies on the trunk, but longer walk distances and lower frequencies everywhere else. People away from the trunk want to be close to a high-frequency service, more than a fast service. Guess what, this is exactly what the taxi are giving them. Should we not focus more on the network rather than the trunk?
Lastly, people don’t mind transferring that much – one transfer is values equally to only about 10% of the average fare. So the average passenger is willing to transfer more (if convenient), in exchange for better coverage and higher frequency in an integrated system.
Mode constants tell us how people value all other aspects of the service, based on their actual use of the services, and already controlling for differences in travel time , cost etc.
BRT significantly outperforms minibus-taxi services in the passenger’s mind, among passengers who actively made a choice between taxi and BRT for their actual trip. This means that BRT does not simply compete with taxis on price, frequency and travel time, but that passengers take into account other qualitative advantages of the BRT. Rea Vaya really is perceived as better.
To what extent do the qualitative versus the service variables contribute to passengers’ current choices between taxi & BRT?
Are we right in building BRT for speed (with segregated bus lanes and enclosed stations), when people are not willing to pay for such speed? People away from the trunk want to be close to a high-frequency service, more than a fast service. Should we not focus more on the dense supporting network, especially the feeders, or have fewer or shorter trunk lines (which also cost us a lot), and rather make partnerships with the taxis, with Uber, with whoever, to provide that feeding function?
Are we right in building BRT for speed (with segregated bus lanes and enclosed stations), when people are not willing to pay for such speed? People away from the trunk want to be close to a high-frequency service, more than a fast service. Should we not focus more on the dense supporting network, especially the feeders, or have fewer or shorter trunk lines (which also cost us a lot), and rather make partnerships with the taxis, with Uber, with whoever, to provide that feeding function?