A presentation by Peter Copley, transport engineer and member of SARF. Delivered during a Transport Forum Special Interest Group 'Roads and the Economy' event in Johannesburg, South Africa on 14 February 2019.

1. TRANSPORT INTEREST GROUP
ROAD FUNDING WORKSHOPS
SECOND WORKSHOP FEBRUARY 2019
PETER COPLEY PR ENG
MEMBER OF SARF

2. TO TOLL OR NOT TO TOLL
I stress that these are personal views and are not necessarily
representative of the South African Road Federation (SARF)
or its members’ Road Funding Policy which is tolling,
augmenting a dedicated Road Financing Fund
For a more in depth presentation of the SANRAL/SARF/
SABITA views I refer to Louw Kannemeyer‘s presentation at
the previous workshop (8 December 2018)

3. South Africa’s
Growth from
1981

4. CURRENT AND FUTURE PETROL PRICE PREDICTIONS
COURTESY OF SOLIDARITY
• If South Africa’s petrol price continues to increase in line with historical
trends, it could double in the next six years. This is according to data
compiled by trade union Solidarity.
• Looking at historical petrol price data from 1976 to present, Solidarity
senior researcher Paul Joubert calculated the average time it has taken for
the petrol price to effectively double over the past few decades.
• According to the research, the petrol price has doubled every six and a
half years since the 1980s. Taking this trend into account and looking
forward, this means that the petrol price in Gauteng could hit R28.32 per
litre by the middle of 2020.

5. Year
Half of the
following price
Actual closest
price to half of
following price
Time taken for
price to double
April 1976 R0.22 R0.24 –
June 1979 R0.44 R0.54
3 years, 2
months
September 1988 R0.89 R0.95
9 years, 3
months
November 1994 R1.77 R1.76
6 years, 2
months
March 2001 R3.54 R3.59
6 years, 4
months
November 2007 R7.08 R6.90
6 years, 8
months
April 2014 R14.16 R14.16
6 years, 5
months
October 2020 R28.32 –
6 years, 6
months

6. DOUBLING EVERY 6,5 YEARS
y = 0,2327e0,1061x
R² = 0,9962
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
76 79 88 94 2001 2007 2014 2020
Six and a half year doubling

7. DOUBLING EVERY 6,5 YEARS…VS CPI
y = 0,2327e0,1061x
R² = 0,9962
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
76 79 88 94 2001 2007 2014 2020
Six and a half year doubling

8. Relative Size of the
South African Economy 2011 cf
2015
What was What is
Peter Copley Pr Eng

9. Order of Shrinkage 2011 to 2016
Peter Copley Pr Eng
• The order of shrinkage, from worst to least worse lies in:
 Electricity, gas and water 33,3%
 Mining and Quarrying 33,3%
 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 32,5%
 Community, social and personal services 31,3%
 Manufacturing 30,8%
 Transport, storage and communication 27,1%
 Wholesale and retail trade 25,9%
 Financial and business services 25,8%
 Construction 12,7%
 TOTAL 29,2%

10. South Africa’s
Growth from
1981
What
happened in
2007? We
moved from a
market driven
economy to a
populist driven
economy
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
RSA 3 yr moving avg GDP
Growth Rate 1981 to 2017

11. POLYNOMIAL
VS
EXPONENTIAL
y = 2E-05x4 - 0,0015x3 + 0,0349x2 -
0,2304x + 0,599
R² = 0,9992
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
76 79 88 94 2001 2007 2014 2020
Six and a half year doubling

12. ANNUAL INCREASE
• Whichever way we look at it the price of fuel at the pump in
rand terms (and hence the rate of increase in the two main
components of the tax on fuel, viz the Fuel Levy itself and the
Road Accident Fund Levy), has been increasing at about 23 per
cent per annum since 1976, exponentially accelerating from
2007
• Compare this with the concessioned toll roads which in terms of
contractual agreement can only increase tolls by a maximum of
CPI every year. (The Concessionnaires and SANRAL prefer to increase at
0,75 times CPI)
• Which would you choose?

13. FUNDAMENTAL CONDITIONS APPROVED BY
PARLIAMENT WHEN ROAD TOLLING WAS FIRST
APPROVED IN 1985
• There had to be a ‘free alternative’ maintained in the same condition as if it
were the primary road
• Funds raised through road tolling could only be spent on the roads they were
collected on
• These were very sound conditions, all of which have been removed with time
• Perhaps it is time to revisit and reintroduce them, particularly for the GFIP
• There is an in built constraint in spending funding wisely if these
are applied.
• A fuel levy has no such upper constraint.

14. BLOOMBERG OBSERVATIONS
• South Africa has the 43rd highest petrol price in the world – at R13.67
a litre – which is low down on the list compared to some European
countries
• However, as with 2014’s ranking, South Africans still pay
the biggest portion of their annual income in fuel costs –
with 4.07% of average annual salaries going to petrol fees
• The closest country to South Africa in these terms is Greece, which
pays 3.30%
• “South Africans face a lot of pain at the pump, which is exacerbated
by how much gasoline they consume,” Bloomberg says.

15. WHERE TO NOW?
• Historically there were approximately 36 bodies building rural roads in South
Africa when considering the independent and self governing territories and
their respective roads, agricultural and defence departments
• Calls from residents of deeper rural areas of South Africa were for road access
as their highest priority
• This was understandable when recognising that residents lived in a spatially
spread out framework, needing access to and from places of economic
concentration

16. WHERE TO NOW? 2
• An inevitability of this arrangement was that many duplicated and in
some instances frankly unnecessary roads were constructed
• South Africa has the 10th or 11th longest rural road network in the
World which is not congruent with its economic performance at about
position 42
• There is a need to look critically to the need to rationalise and shorten
the overall length of the network
• The Central Place theories of Christaller and Loesch lend themselves
to application in a more politically stable and rational country
• They have been proven to apply in Free State, the old Lebowa and in
KZN

17. WAY FORWARDS?
• There is a need to undertake the forensic audit into the fuel
levy proposed by OUTA
• A need exists to re-ring fence revenue generated by tolls
collected on a facility to that facility, particularly on the
Gauteng Freeway Improvement Project
• Together with a national/provincial study to locate roads
(both existing and sometimes new) which meet the needs
for both personal mobility and economic necessity
described through Central Place theories
• The fundamentals of effective transport planning remain
land use, transport and energy

18. WAY FORWARDS IN PRIORITY AND PROGRAMMING
• A need exists to use both the Rural Economic Development
(RED) model in determining priorities AS WELL as the Highway
Design and Maintenance (HDM) model
• The RED favours consumer surplus whereas the HDM favours
producer surplus
• South African policy currently looks only to the HDM model (In
this I may be wrong?)
• ‘To toll or not to toll’ then becomes the far more important
question of ‘To be or not to be’

19. CURRENT ORDER OF SA GOVERNMENT GUARANTEES
• ESKOM
• SANRAL
• SAA
• SAPO
• DENEL
• TRANSNET
• Others
• ……if these are called in, South Africa could disappear off the
World economic map

20. I HOPE NOT!
Thank you for listening
petercopley@outlook.com
Retiree
What I have said recognises that South Africa’s retail banks
have recently been adjudged in London to be the best in the
World….let’s use that resource for future potential projects
Peter Copley Pr Eng

21. OBSERVATIONS
• It should be noted that the forward projection of fuel cost is based on historic data, and
doesn’t account for the many unknowable variables which may have an impact on the petrol
price.
• For example, 2015 saw a cheaper price every month of the year when compared to 2014, due
to a massive crash in the global oil price at the start of the year.
• Conversely, many of the benefits that fed onto the local petrol price from the oil crash were
undone by a poor performance by the local economy, which pushed the rand to new lows
against the dollar.
• Research by Bloomberg previously showed that, while South Africa doesn’t have the most
expensive petrol in the world – by quite some margin – it does have the biggest proportional
annual spend on fuel in the world.

22. WHAT IS THE FUEL LEVY?
• The fuel levy is an annually adjusted tax that is largely intended to fund
government’s general expenditure programmes. About a third of the money is
also shared with metropolitan municipalities.
• For the 2018/19 financial year, the levy amounts to 337,0
cents per litre of petrol sold and 322,0 cents per litre of
diesel.
• That is ZAR3,37 per litre on petrol and ZAR3,22 per litre on diesel, a tax of
approximately 25%

23. WHAT IS THE ROAD ACCIDENT FUND (RAF) LEVY?
• The main income received by the Road Accident Fund is a levy that is based on fuel
sales known as the RAF Fuel Levy. The RAF Fuel Levy income is a charge levied on
fuel throughout the country and the quantum of the RAF Fuel Levy per litre is
determined by the National Treasury on an annual basis, whereas total fuel sales
are influenced by a number of macro-economic factors.
• The RAF annually requests an increase in the RAF Fuel Levy from NT based on a
financial funding model and a calculation of its costs during the coming year. The
full extent of the RAF Fuel Levy requested is seldom granted. This is because NT has
historically set the levy on a pay-as-you-go basis rather than with the purpose of
establishing a fully funded position for the RAF.
• The RAF (Fuel) Levy is currently at 193 cents per litre for the
2018/19 financial year.
• That is ZAR1,93 per litre on both petrol and diesel, a tax of approximately 13,8%

24. TOTAL LEVIES (FUEL TAXES) IN JANUARY 2019,
COURTESY OF SHELL
• IP Tracer Levy 0,010 cents per litre
• Fuel Levy 337,0 cents per litre on petrol
• Slate Levy
• Customs and Excise Duty 4,0 cents per litre
• RAF Levy 193,0 cents per litre
• DSML (Inland Demand Levy) 10,0 cents per litre
• Petroleum Products Levy 0,33 on petrol, 0,34 on diesel
• Equalisation Fund Levy
• Pump Rounding 0,02

25. cent per litre
cent per litre
cent per litre cent per litre cent per litre
Wholesale margin 34.800
34.800 71.250 71.250 71.250
Service cost recoveries
35.500 35.500 35.500 35.500 35.500
Storage, handling &
delivery costs
20.900
20.900 20.900 20.900 20.900
Distribution cost
14.600 14.600 14.600 14.600 14.600
Router Differential
- - - - 7.400
Dealers margin (*)
198.0 198.0 - - -
Zone differential in
Gauteng
2.900
2.900 2.900 2.900 2.900
IP Tracer levy
- - - - -
Fuel levy
337.000 337.000 322.000 322.000 -
Slate levy
- - - - -
Customs & excise duty
- - - - -
RAF levy
197.000 197.000 197.000 197.000 -
DSML (Inland Demand
Levy) - - - - -
Petroleum Products
Levy 0.330 0.330 0.340 0.340 -
Equalisation Fund Levy
Composition of the retail price of petrol and the wholesale prices for diesel in coastal (cpt, dbn) for the period 02 January 2019 to 5 February 2019 will be as follows

26. TOTAL CONTRIBUTION OF LEVIES
TO THE BASIC FUEL PRICE (BFP) OF R14 PER LITRE
• 536,47 cents per litre ULP 95 (38,3%)
• 524,47 cents per litre ULP 93 and LRP (37.5%)
• 677,79 cents per litre diesel (48,4%)
• Expressed alternatively:
• Tax rate of 37,9 per cent on petrol
• Tax rate of 48,4 per cent on diesel

27. Thankfully the Automobile Association has, for the third year now, given us an exact
breakdown of how South Africa’s fuel prices are determined, taking into account the latest
52 cent increase in fuel levies that took effect from April 1.
As you’ll see in the infographics below, these levies make up almost 40 percent of the price
of fuel at the pumps - amounting to R5.30 per litre of fuel.
And that really adds up quickly! Of the R694.50 that it costs you to fill a 50 litre tank at the
coast, R264 goes to these fuel levies (R168.50 to the General Fuel Levy and R96.50 to the
Road Accident Fund). A further R139 goes to those parties that store, transport and sell
you the petrol.
But here's the kicker. The actual fuel that you’ve just spent almost seven hundred hard
earned rands on, actually costs just R290.50 when it arrives in a ship at the harbour.

28. Tax statistics compiled by the South African Revenue Service and the national budget indicate
that the amount of money collected from South Africa’s fuel levy is quite different from the
figures touted by the Opposition to Urban Tolling Alliance (Outa) and the Democratic Alliance
(DA).
When calculated for the last six financial years – from 2007/08 to 2012/13 – fuel levies
amount to R188.8-billion. That is around R50-billion less than the amount cited by Outa – a
pressure group campaigning against controversial electronic tolls implemented in Gauteng
province.
Outa and the DA argue that road construction and maintenance could be adequately funded
using the existing national fuel levy system and that there is no need for e-tolls.
Out by huge margins
The numbers bandied about by Outa and the DA were out by huge margins.
A recent post on Outa’s Facebook and Twitter accounts asked: “Two hundred and thirty eight
billion [rand] in six years.

29. The National Treasury’s 2013 budget review lists fuel levies collected from
1995/96 to 2011/12. Taken froTax statistics compiled by the South African
Revenue Service and the national budget indicate that the amount of money
collected from South Africa’s fuel levy is quite different from the figures touted
by the Opposition to Urban Tolling Alliance (Outa) and the Democratic Alliance
(DA).
The National Treasury’s 2013 budget review lists fuel levies collected from
1995/96 to 2011/12. Taken from the 1998/99 financial year to 2012/13 the total
amount collected comes to just under R340-billion, far more than the DA’s
claimed R180-billion and R240-billion.
When calculated for the last six financial years – from 2007/08 to 2012/13 – fuel
levies amount to R188.8-billion. That is around R50-billion less than the amount
cited by Outa – a pressure group campaigning against controversial electronic
tolls implemented in Gauteng province.

30. Outa and the DA argue that road construction and maintenance
could be adequately funded using the existing national fuel levy
system and that there is no need for e-tolls.
Out by huge margins
The numbers bandied about by Outa and the DA were out by
huge margins.
A recent post on Outa’s Facebook and Twitter accounts asked:
“Two hundred and thirty eight billion [rand] in six years. m the
1998/99 financial year to 2012/13 the total amount collected
comes to just under R340-billion, far more than the DA’s claimed
R180-billion and R240-billion.

31. Where has it all gone? Remind me again why we have e-tolls?” And it exhorted readers
to “[s]hare this if you agree we need a forensic audit of the fuel levy fund”.
The DA took up the charge on Monday with a press release jointly issued by its
parliamentary leader, Mmusi Maimane, and MP Manny de Freitas.
“Currently the National Roads Act of 1971 allows the government to collect a fuel levy
from every litre of fuel sold, and to add that to the national fiscus and spend it on any
budget item,” they stated. “Over R240-billion has been collected through this levy since
1998.”
A version of the press release given to journalists at a DA press conference stated that
over “R180-billion has been collected through this levy since 1998”.
Maimane and De Freitas went on to argue that “the fuel levy ought to be directed
solely to road construction and maintenance, which will further negate the need for e-
tolls”.

32. Thorough research required
So where did Outa and the DA get their numbers?
De Freitas who claimed that the R240-billion figure originated from studies done by the
Automobile Association (AA) and the Southern African Bitumen Association. But neither the
AA study, which was conducted in 2008, nor the 2006 one carried out by the Southern
African BitumThorough research required
So where did Outa and the DA get their numbers?
De Freitas who claimed that the R240-billion figure originated from studies done by the
Automobile Association (AA) and the Southern African Bitumen Association. But neither the
AA study, which was conducted in 2008, nor the 2006 one carried out by the Southern
African Bitumen Association list fuel levy amounts.

33. Outa chairperson Wayne Duvenage said the fuel levy figure their association used had been
calculated by multiplying the total litres of fuel sold in a given year – gleaned from annual
reports of the South African Petroleum Industry Association (Sapia) – with the fuel levy tax
rate. But this method is wrong as Sapia provide totals for a calendar year, whereas the fuel
levy changes at the beginning of government’s financial year each April.
“We had not updated our research until Friday and I guess this amount may have been
based on conservative assumptions or different time periods,” Duvenage said, conceding
that Outa should “do more thorough research before we repost information of this nature”.
– Africa Checken Association list fuel levy amounts.
Outa chairperson Wayne Duvenage said the fuel levy figure their association used had been
calculated by multiplying the total litres of fuel sold in a given year – gleaned from annual
reports of the South African Petroleum Industry Association (Sapia) – with the fuel levy tax
rate. But this method is wrong as Sapia provide totals for a calendar year, whereas the fuel
levy changes at the beginning of government’s financial year each April.
“We had not updated our research until Friday and I guess this amount may have been
based on conservative assumptions or different time periods,” Duvenage said, conceding
that Outa should “do more thorough research before we repost information of this nature”.
– Africa Check

34. Peter Copley Pr Eng
FA: The impact of general economic policies on road
funding

35. CV
Peter Copley worked from 1964 for various South
African road institutions and from 1985 for the
Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA)
He left the DBSA in 2013 and while he continues to
interact with the logistics and transport professions,
his current particular interest is in addressing
Southern Africa’s water, sanitation and energy issues
from his home in Irene, Gauteng, South Africa
Peter Copley Pr Eng

36. South Africa’s
Growth from
1981

37. Salient Points
• Prior to 1994 South Africa survived on windfalls in
commodity and particularly gold and platinum prices
• International sanctions had a very deleterious effect on
stability and consistency
• In the three years leading up to 1994 South Africa was
very shaky indeed
• From 1994 (democracy) to 2007 there was consistent
stable growth in GDP to 5,5% per annum (excepting
1998)
• Subsequent to 2007 we have witnessed a continuous
decline in economic performance, largely due to
following a course of populist policies
Peter Copley Pr Eng

38. South
Africa’s
Growth
from 1981
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
RSA 3 yr moving avg GDP
Growth Rate 1981 to 2017

39. Salient Points
What are the lessons to be learned from the period
of sanctions against South Africa?
The next slide shows us…..
Growth is led by private sector investment
Peter Copley Pr Eng

40. Real Gross Fixed Capital Formation in the South African
Economy on Economic and Social Infrastructure, 1946 -2007
(Rm): Source DBSA Infrastructure Barometer 2008

41. Lessons from 1994 to 2007 with regard to transport
(and other) PPP’s
• 1997 Maputo Toll Road, port and two successful bulk
sanitation and water projects
• 1999 N3 Toll Road
• 2001 Bakwena Toll Road
• 2003 Gautrain
• 2005 Prisons and hospitals
• 2007 to present, Solar power in the Northern Cape and
wind power in the Eastern Cape
• Total PPP investment of the order of ZAR 50 bn, 90% of
which came from South Africa, for fixed investment in
South Africa…
Peter Copley Pr Eng

42. The current toll and strategic
road network in South Africa
Peter Copley Pr Eng

43. Then we STOPPED....or changed
direction
Peter Copley Pr Eng

44. Alternatively
Expressed Reality
Peter Copley Pr Eng

45. Lessons subsequent to 2007
Peter Copley Pr Eng
• With World growth dropping in 2008, coupled with
China reducing demand for inventory, and a change
in political attitude in South Africa, the current
decline commenced and has continued unabated
(aggravated by the worst drought in 120 years and
an unparalleled shortage in electricity supply)
•Populism defeats growth
• The slices of the cake remain the same….
• But the cake diminishes hugely
• (Growth is led by private sector investment)

46. Percentage Shrinkage 2011 to
2016
Peter Copley Pr Eng
GDP Sector, or
slice
Percentage in
1994
Approximated
percentage in
2011
Percentage in 2014 Rand value in 2011 in USD
(bns)
Rand Value in 2013/14
in USD (bns)
Rand value in 2016
(In USD bns extrapolated
from 2014)
Percentage
decrease 2011 to
2016 cf overall
shrinkage of
29,20%
Financial and
Business Services
15,28 20,65 21,65 85,99 77,67 63,83 25,77
Community,
social and
personal services
25,37 23,50 22,82 97,86 81,87 67,28 31,25
Wholesale and
retail trade
12,98 14,30 14,96 59,55 53,67 44,11 25,93
Manufacturing 15,50 14,25 13,93 59,34 49,97 41,07 30,79
Transport,
storage and
Communication
6,11 8,90 9,26 37,06 33,22 27,03 27,06
Mining and
quarrying
15,51 9,00 8,48 37,48 30,42 25,00 33,30
Construction 2,58 3,33 3,79 12,80 13,60 11,17 12,73
Electricity, gas
and water
3,24 2,60 2,45 10,83 8,79 7,22 33,33
Agriculture,
forestry and
fishing
3,43 2,80 2,67 11,66 9,58 7,87 32,50
TOTAL 100,00 99,33 100,00 416,42 358,74 294,84 29,20

47. Order of Shrinkage 2011 to 2016
Peter Copley Pr Eng
• The order of shrinkage, from worst to least worse lies in:
 Electricity, gas and water 33,3%
 Mining and Quarrying 33,3%
 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 32,5%
 Community, social and personal services 31,3%
 Manufacturing 30,8%
 Transport, storage and communication 27,1%
 Wholesale and retail trade 25,9%
 Financial and business services 25,8%
 Construction 12,7%
 TOTAL 29,2%

48. Order of Shrinkage 2011 to 2016
Peter Copley Pr Eng
• Fully five of the sectors fell more steeply in percentage terms
from 2011 to 2016 than the average fall. These, together with
construction, are the sectors that are the traditional employment
creating sectors in South Africa.
• The safety net afforded by government through Community,
social and personal services was among the worst performers.
• This gives rise to considerable concern in that unemployment
increases, without a rising social safety net; the Gini coefficient
increases; and ‘the rich get richer while the poor get poorer’.
• In short, populist policies cause more damage to the people
they are supposed to support than do market driven policies.

49. The fundamental cause for concern is the collapse of the South
African economy by one third since 2007 when we shifted from
market led policies to those of populism
The fundamental cause for concern Size of the cake
• While the distribution of the
cake has not changed much,
the size of the cake is
indisputably diminishing
• $416,42 billion USD in 2011;
$314,57 billion USD in 2015;
$294,84 billion USD in 2016
• Historic PPP’s, mostly in
transport, brought in ZAR 50
billion over a decade
• Are we able to see what
recent history shows us and
what is staring us in the face?

50. How do we regain those heady
days of 1994 to 2007?
Peter Copley Pr Eng
• Fundamental and consistent policy
• Change societal and political mind sets that PPP’s are
NOT there to ‘steal the family silver’
• From OECD publication ‘Infrastructure to 2030’, the
governments of the World can no longer afford to
provide the necessary infrastructure unaided…there
HAVE to be PPP’s
• South Africa’s electricity consumption has decreased by
20% (but user charging has risen four fold)
• List on the JSE and tax within a known and consistent
tax regime

51. Institutional necessities
Peter Copley Pr Eng
• Political champions at the apex, representing the
will of the people
• Public servant champions willing to drive the
processes and comply with public regulation
• Private sector champions willing to convince ALL
stakeholders that what is being done is in the best
interests of all

52. THE FUNDAMENTAL CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS THE COLLAPSE OF THE
SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY BY ONE THIRD SINCE 2007 WHEN WE
SHIFTED FROM MARKET LED POLICIES TO THOSE OF POPULISM
The fundamental cause for concern Size of the cake
• While the distribution of the
cake has not changed much,
the size of the cake is
indisputably diminishing
• $416,42 billion USD in 2011;
$314,57 billion USD in 2015;
$294,84 billion USD in 2016
• Historic PPP’s, mostly in
transport, brought in ZAR 50
billion over a decade
• Are we able to see what
recent history shows us and
what is staring us in the face?

53. I hope so!
Thank you for listening
petercopley@outlook.com
Retiree
What I have said recognises that South Africa’s retail banks
have recently been adjudged in London to be the best in the
World….let’s use that resource for future potential projects
Peter Copley Pr Eng

54. A word on Fuel Levies
Broadly speaking, one third of the liquid fuel pump price in
South Africa is collected in tax. This represents about R5 per
litre.
The total amount collected represents a significant source of
revenue to Government through the Department of Finance
to the National Treasury…..and hence partially back to roads,
public transport, third party insurance and vehicle
manufacture subsidy……and other demands on the fiscus
(I consciously make no reference to a dedicated road fund!)
Peter Copley Pr Eng

55. Peak Oil
Peter Copley Pr Eng

56. A word on alternatives
Crude oil is running out. Tolls have reached their
current level of societal acceptability. Liquid fuel
consumption will inevitably decrease as the World
moves towards electric or gas traction on roads, for
whatever reason.
We know from work done by SABITA and SARF that
enormous amounts of money are necessary to
provide adequate road infrastructure….on the
existing network (too large?)
Peter Copley Pr Eng

57. A word on alternatives
Historically we would increase the fuel levy towards
meeting this need. This is no longer an option.
Eskom has shown only too well what happens when you
increase the price of electricity without a commensurate
increase in efficiency. People move towards alternatives
and revenue decreases. South Africa is using 20% less
electricity at 4 times the Eskom cost per Kwh.
Perhaps electrically powered transport is a way to assist
in making the step in South Africa towards the 4th
industrial revolution….and for road space cost recovery
to be made through electricity consumption, augmenting
road tolling and the current fuel levy…with a move back
towards the success of the previous generation of PPP’s.
Peter Copley Pr Eng